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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCD Plan Bay Area 2040 Draft (ABAG)CITY OF Agenda Item No: 5.a Meeting Date: October 3, 2016 SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT Department: Community Development Prepared by: Paul Jensen & Alan Montes City Manager Approval: Director and Assistant Planner TOPIC: PLAN BAY AREA 2040 DRAFT PREFERRED SCENARIO GROWTH PROJECTIONS SUBJECT: REPORT ON ASSOCIATION OF BAY AREA GOVERNMENTS (ABAG) AND METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION (MTC) PLAN BAY AREA 2040 DRAFT PREFERRED SCENARIO (P15-008) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: ABAG and MTC have released their four-year update to Plan Bay Area 2040 and have requested comments from local jurisdictions by October 14, 2016. This update contains revised employment and household growth projections for the Plan's draft "Preferred Scenario." The housing and jobs projections for the City of San Rafael have been reduced since the adopted 2013 Plan Bay Area, despite a significant increase in the projections for the Bay Area as a whole. This round of growth projections is not tied to the state -mandated "Regional Housing Needs Allocation" (RHNA) numbers. RHNA operates on an eight-year cycle, with the next iteration not due until 2022. Because RHNA numbers are not included in this Plan update, ABAG/MTC have stated that these projections are meant to be a limited and focused study, given the recent economic surge the Bay Area has experienced. Staff is requesting that the City Council review and discuss the staff comments and direct staff to submit written comments to ABAG/MTC. RECOMMENDATION: Accept report and direct staff to forward comments on the Plan Bay Area 2040 Preferred Scenario projections to ABAG and MTC. BACKGROUND: Plan Bav Area Plan Bay Area (Plan) is a long-range, regional housing and transportation plan through 2040 for the San Francisco Bay Area. On July 18, 2013, the Plan was adopted jointly by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) Executive Board and by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC). Plan Bay Area marks the nine -county region's first long-range plan to meet the requirements of Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32), the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. That bill established a statewide requirement for reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. In 2008 the State of California passed Senate Bill 375, which calls on each of the State's 18 metropolitan areas to develop a "Sustainable Communities FOR CITY CLERK ONLY File No.: 281 Council Meeting: 10/03/2016 Disposition: Accepted report SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 2 Strategy' (SCS) to accommodate future population growth and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light trucks. Working in collaboration with cities and counties throughout the Bay Area, the Plan advances initiatives to expand housing and transportation choices, create healthier communities, and build a stronger regional economy. It focuses development toward "Priority Development Areas" (PDAs) — neighborhoods that are close to public transit and identified by local jurisdictions as being appropriate for smart, compact development. Lastly, it confines growth throughout the Bay Area to established communities, rather than sprawl, and protects the Bay Area's vast and varied open space. Bav Area Reqional Planninq and Transportation (ABAG & MTCJ The Bay Area is served by a number of regional agencies, including ABAG and MTC. ABAG and MTC manage, administer and oversee regional planning and transportation matters. Since the early 1970's, ABAG has served as the Bay Area's "Council of Governments" (COG). As a COG, ABAG: a) projects and monitors jobs and housing growth for the region; and b) administers the State -mandated "Regional Housing Need Allocation" (RHNA). These roles are described as follows: Since 1978, ABAG has been responsible for developing and publishing jobs and housing growth projections for the region. The projections are based, in part on the growth and development projections of local general plans, input from local agencies and trends in the economy. Historically, ABAG published the jobs and housing projections every two to four years. Local jurisdictions are not bound by or required to comply with the jobs/housing projections, but they are often used by local jurisdictions as a base for forecasting build -out in local general plans. The jobs and housing projections were historically separate from the RHNA requirements. 2. The RHNA is the housing needs allocation that is set and determined for each region (e.g., the SF Bay region) by the State of California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD). Required by State law since 1981, RHNA represents a target number for planning and accommodating new housing units for a broad range of affordability levels. For the Bay Area region, ABAG is provided this RHNA for the Bay Area region from HCD and it is the role of ABAG, in coordination with the nine Bay Area counties and respective cities/towns, to distribute this allocation to each community. Each county and local municipality must take its share of the allocation and incorporate it into their respective General Plan Housing Elements. The Housing Element must demonstrate how the local allocation can be met or achieved through zoning for housing and supportive General Plan implementation measures. While RHNA does not require municipalities to build housing to meet this allocation, the Housing Element must demonstrate, to the satisfaction of HCD, that the local municipality zoning and property inventory can accommodate the allocation. MTC oversees and manages transportation planning and coordination for the Bay Area region. MTC is responsible for developing a regional transportation plan (RTP) which sets the long-term transportation needs (transportation improvements) for the region and the funding to implement these needs. In addition, MTC is responsible for coordinating with the State Department of Transportation (Caltrans) on transportation projects for the region, and administering funds and grants received from the State and Federal level. MTC is responsible for allocating and distributing the Federal and State funds and grants to the congestion management agencies throughout the nine Bay Area counties. Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM) serves as the congestion management agency for Marin County. In late May 2016, the MTC and ABAG Executive Boards, along with the ABAG General Assembly, voted to merge ABAG and MTC into one agency in an attempt to increase collaboration between land use and transportation. Prioritv Development Areas The establishment of "Priority Development Areas" (PDA) is the key tool to achieving concentrated growth and reducing vehicle trips. A PDA is a geographic area that is close to, along, or within transit nodes and connections that can be earmarked for concentrated growth, particularly housing growth. ABAG established a process by which a local jurisdiction can designate a PDA. This designation applies a higher percentage of projected growth for the PDA, but it also comes with incentives. The incentives for a PDA include, among others: a) the potential for reduced requirements for and/or an exemption from CEQA review for future development in these areas; and b) greater grant and funding opportunities for planning, transportation and infrastructure. SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 3 Approximately 200 PDAs are designated in the nine Bay Area counties. At present, Marin County has two designated PDAs one in San Rafael (Downtown) and one in unincorporated Marin County (Marin City). It is important to note that San Rafael had originally designated two PDAs in 2008-2009. However, in 2013 questions and concerns were raised by the community regarding the Civic Center PDA, and on September 13, 2013 the Civic Center PDA was rescinded by the City Council on a 3-2 vote. The City Council recommended that the topic be revisited with possible reinstatement of the Civic Center PDA at a future time, should there be changes to the PDA parameters and the conditions. At this time, the criteria for establishing a PDA remain the same. Therefore, it is not recommended that a Civic Center PDA be reinstated at this time. In early 2017, the City will be initiating the process for the San Rafael General Plan 2040, which will be the appropriate time to consider this issue. Draft Preferred Scenario for Plan Bav Area 2040 — Auqust 2016 In late August 2016, ABAG/MTC published the "Draft Preferred Scenario" for the Plan update. The Draft Preferred Scenario still maintains the same primary goals as the Plan presented in 2013, specifically: a) reducing the region's GHG emissions by 15% by 2035 (per AB 32); and b) housing 100% of the projected growth for the region by 2040. This update to the Plan is the first since the Plan was adopted in July 2013. The primary changes in the Draft Preferred Scenario include a change in forecasting methodology. The prior methodology used in the 2013 adopted Plan combined a land use allocation process based on observed historic growth patterns with local jurisdiction expectations described in the local planning documents (e.g., San Rafael General Plan 2020). For the current Plan update, the modeling program (UrbanSim land use model) also incorporates zoning tools, the most recent PDA assessment, and household, business, and developer choice models. The UrbanSim land use model utilizes a baseline year of 2010 with household information taken from the 2010 US Census. The agencies ran the model hundreds of times, testing how different, regional strategies influence the distribution of housing and employment growth. Throughout the entire Bay Area, the revised Plan represents a 15% increase in the projected employment growth and a 25% increase in projected household growth, from the 2013 adopted Plan. This change is, in part, due to the recent surge in economic growth throughout the region (post Great Recession). The revised projections have increased the number of households by 3,160 and decreased the employment projection by 1,600 jobs in Marin County. The table below shows the revised projections (from the 2013 projections) for the region, by county. SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Paae: 4 For Marin County, the specific projections for San Rafael show a reduction of 330 households and 1,540 jobs, from the 2013 Plan projections. This decrease in households and jobs from the prior projection is partially due to the removal of the Civic Center PDA, the revised forecasting methodology, and local input. The following tables show the revised projections for Marin County in comparison to the Adopted Plan Bay Area projections (2013). Households Summary Jurisdiction Level (Belvedere -ota (Corte Madera -ota Fa'rfax -cta (Larkspur -ota. Mill Valley Total (Novato Tota' I Draft Households2U10 (Baseline) 900 3,900 3,400 1 5,854 5,900 20,150 Draft Preferred Scenario j20161 Households Forecast 2440 1,000 4,350 PBA 2013 Projections 5,300 8,150 2016.2013 HOUSEHOLDS 2010 Households 2A households %Increase Total -ota 2010 Households 2Whouseholds %increase Unincorporate Total Difference Alameda I 548,000 724,700 3296 175,700 545,140 705,330 29% 150,194 15,614 Contra Costa I 375,900 491,200 3196 116,300 375,360 464,160 24% 88,790 25,614 Jklarin 1 103,900 116,900 12% 12,000 103,210 112,050 9% 8,840 3,164 Napa 1 49,200 55,700 1396 5,500 48,880 56,310 15% 7,430 l934j 15an Francisco I 347,100 475,500 P% 128,400 345,810 447,350 29% 101,530 26,87o 15an Mateo I 256,900 315,800 2396 58,900 257,840 315,090 22% 57,260 1,650 15anta Clara I 597,100 846,600 42% 249,500 604,200 818,390 3596 214,190 35,310 ISolano 1 142,300 170,300 20% 28,000 141,750 168,700 19% 25,950 1,454 (Sonoma I 186,800 231,000 24% 44,200 185,830 220,750 19% 34,910 9,294 (Region I 2,507,200 3,426,700 3196 819,500 2,508,020 3,308,110 27% 700,090 119,414 Draft Preferred Scenario l2015l PBA 2013 Projeetk 2416.2413 JOBS 2010 Employment 2040 Employment % Increase Total 2010 Employment 2040 Employment % Increase Total Difference (Alameda I 705,500 978,300 39% 272,800 694,450 947,650 SS% 253,200 19,600 (Contra Costa I 360,200 472,700 3196 112,500 344,920 467,390 3696 122,47D -9,970 (Marin 1 120,800 137,600 14% 16,800 110,730 129,140 18'% 18,400 -1,644 I Na pa 1 70,700 79,000 12% 8,P 70,650 89,540 2896 18,890 -14,594 (San Francisco I 576,900 887,800 54% 310,900 558,720 759,500 3496 190,780 124,124 ISan Mateo I 343,300 475,300 3896 132,o00 345,200 445,080 29% 99,880 34124 15anta Clara I 911,500 1,269,700 39% 358,200 925,260 1,229,53o 3396 303,270 54,930 15olano 1 130,200 156,500 20% 26,300 132,350 179,930 3696 47,580 -21,280 ISonoma 1 202,700 241,400 19% 38,700 192,010 257,460 34% 65,450 -25,750 (Region I 3,421,800 4,698,300 P% 1,276,500 3,385,290 4,505,220 3396 1,119,920 156,580 For Marin County, the specific projections for San Rafael show a reduction of 330 households and 1,540 jobs, from the 2013 Plan projections. This decrease in households and jobs from the prior projection is partially due to the removal of the Civic Center PDA, the revised forecasting methodology, and local input. The following tables show the revised projections for Marin County in comparison to the Adopted Plan Bay Area projections (2013). Households Summary Jurisdiction Level (Belvedere -ota (Corte Madera -ota Fa'rfax -cta (Larkspur -ota. Mill Valley Total (Novato Tota' I Draft Households2U10 (Baseline) 900 3,900 3,400 1 5,854 5,900 20,150 PrefemdSrerwrra (26 Households Forecast 2440 1,000 4,350 3,550 5,300 8,150 21,350 (Ross -cta San Anse nc cta San Rafael Total 456 DT PDA 2,256 CC PDA aura tc -ota huron -ota Marin County -ota Unincorporate PDA Marin County Total Total 1 PDA Difference Households 2010 =cast -Baseline) �(Baseline) 166 1 93- 456 3,79- 156 3,3s, 456 5,91u 2,256 6,6&6 1,266 26,2&6 166 4,500 866 sm 5,200 5,450 256 27550 25,950 3,400 1,650 2,750 RECSINDED 1,100 4,150 4,500 350 3,600 3,850 250 27,450 30,600 3,150 1,500 2,050 5501 10 3, 940 115,900 12,0W 3,150 4,800 1,6501 22,750 2,420 4,116 3,736 26,196 4, 290 103,200 61710 BA 2013 Projections Households Forecast Difference Forecast 2044 (Forecast -Baseline) Change 976 46 601 4,W 290 1601 3,620 240 -901 6,450 540 -901 6,546 460 17901 21,456 1,170 301 866 60 401 5,536 296 40 25,490 3,730 1 -330 3,830 1.=1v -310 2,950 1,-5- RECSINDED 4,476 3E- .10 4,666 27" -201 27,5&6 1,39- 17601 4,816 52" 301 112,040 8,840 31601 8,640 7930 -2801 SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 5 Employment Draft PWerred5rerario (7416) 350 - PBA 2413 Projections 513 59D Summary Jurisdiction Level Employment 2414 (Baseline) Employment Difference Forecast 2044 (Forecast -Baseline) Employment 2014 (Baseline) Employment Forecast 2444 Difference (Forecast -Baseline) Forecast IChange Be vedere -cta "orte Madera -ota 300 I 6,650 3vv--33 ?,=5v ?"" ?,9--3 LS, " ?,2E3 5, ?? -54 494 Fa rfax -cta 1,550 MZ -Z 15D 1,-9, 1,82D 33, -194 Larkspur -cta 7,450 S S"" 135D 7,19,- 7,81D E2, 734 IV1 Va e-; -cta Nc,atc -cta 6, DDD I 26,4DD 6,6vv 29,5vv 6DD 31DD 5,9?3 2 -,?93 6,79u 24,39D R1, 3.5-- -214 -444 Ross -cta 350 - 5D 513 59D g -34 San Anse ric -cta 3,3D0 3,65~ 35DI 3.7L, A.36D E2, -274 San Rafael Total 43,344 49,140 5944 37,620L_44,964 7,344 -1544 D- FDA CC FDA R, DDD 1D,100 RECSINDED 11DD 8,25D 5,660 10,48D 6,860 2,23u 1,200 -11.30 REMINDED Sausa tc -ota. 5,2Cv 5,800 6DD 6,22D 7,F'3 1,=2, -924 - I;urcn Total I 2,85~ 2,RDD 50 2,34D 2,693 353 -344 J:Jar n cuilt� -otaI 17,50~ 21,35D 3850 16,38D 19,3E 2,98D 974 Unincorporate PDA 6K 750 100 2,26D 2,963 7DD -644 Marin County Total 124,940 137,640 15900 114,734 129,154 18,424 -1524 Total PDA 91654 14,854 1240 14,514 13,444 2,9341 -1734 As noted above, ABAG and MTC have changed the methodology used in their model (UrbanSim) and, as a result, there are some discrepancies with the baseline numbers, primarily with the employment baseline. Upon staff's inquiry, it was explained that the current employment baseline was roughly created by taking the Employment Development Department's numbers for Marin and using 2010 Dun & Bradstreet data to distribute the baseline jobs to each jurisdiction. The employment baseline created in 2013 was from the 2010 Dun & Bradstreet Data. ABAG and MTC have explained that they are now aware that jobs are constantly fluctuating and that the employment baselines are meant to be more of an estimate, rather than a precise number and that the employment projections are meant to represent a `potential maximum,' rather than a requirement. ANALYSIS: This section focuses on City staff review and comments on the Draft Preferred Scenario. Following City Council review and direction on these comments, it is recommended that staff be directed to prepare a letter of written comments to be submitted to ABAG/MTC. Comments on Draft Plan Bav Area City staff has closely monitored the Plan Bay Area update process, which has included attending workshops, contacting ABAG/MTC, communicating with other local jurisdictions and reviewing all projections that have been published. Staff presents the following comments on the latest Draft Plan (relative to San Rafael): The housina voiection for San Rafael is reasonable and acceptable. The latest draft projections show a reduction in housing growth of 330 households since the 2013 draft projections. San Rafael can accommodate the projected additional 3,400 households as projected for 2040. With the addition of 3,400 households San Rafael would have a total of 25,950 households, by 2040. San Rafael's General Plan 2020 had projected that by 2020, we would have 32,423 housing units (source: San Rafael General Plan 2020 Land Use Element); by this account we can expect that San Rafael can reasonably accommodate the projected growth in households. Therefore, the Plan projections are already within the housing capacity anticipated by the current General Plan. These projections do not require municipalities to build housing to meet the projections. Our sole, mandated obligation for housing lies with our share of the Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA), which requires that the local municipality's zoning and property inventory can accommodate the allocation. This Plan update does not include RHNA. 2. The 2040 iobs i)roiection Growth for San Rafael is ambitious Given the built environment conditions and constrained transportation network. The 2040 jobs projection (growth of 5,800 jobs citywide) in this latest SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 6 scenario has been significantly reduced from the Adopted 2013 Plan Bay Area (by approximately 21 % or 1,540 jobs), but there's still a significant concern regarding the feasibility to accommodate this projection. The reasons for concern are that: a) San Rafael is a built -out community and there is very limited room for new commercial growth; and b) this development equivalent would require major transportation and utility service infrastructure that would exceed current and planned capacity. The General Plan 2020 includes policies that are "safeguards," to ensure the planned transportation improvements must be fully funded and scheduled for implementation in coordination with land development. However, it is important to keep in mind that the job projections are not currently a requirement and are more of a measure of potential, as there are no requirements attached to them. FISCAL IMPACT: The sole fiscal impact on the creation of this report is the staff time required to monitor and review the Plan Bay Area process and prepare this report. CONCLUSION Staff recommends that the comments on the Draft Preferred Scenario be presented in a letter of comment to ABAG/MTC. A draft letter has been prepared, which is attached (Attachment 1). If the City Council concurs with or amends/supplements staff comments, the letter will be finalized for signature by the Mayor and submitted by the comment deadline date of October 14tH OPTIONS: The City Council has the following options to consider on this matter: 1. Accept Report; or 2. Direct staff to return with responses to questions RECOMMENDED ACTION: 1. Accept Report; and 2. Direct Staff to forward comments on the Preferred Draft Scenario to ABAG and MTC ATTACHMENTS: Draft letter to ABAG/MTC October 3, 2016 CITY OF 0 COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT PHONE: 415-485-3085 FAX: 415-485-3184 Bay Area Metro Center ATTN: Miriam Chion and Ken Kirkey 375 Beale St Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 Subject: City of San Rafael Comments on Plan Bay Area Draft Preferred Scenario (City File No. P15-008) Dear Miriam Chion and Ken Kirkey, Over the past year, the City of San Rafael has actively been following the revision to Plan Bay Area 2040. During this process, our staff has reviewed revisions and studies that have been released and have submitted written comments to ABAG/MTC on behalf of our City. The latest Draft Preferred Scenario was published in late August 2016 and we have been diligently reviewing these documents to determine the Plan implications on our City. On October 3, 2016, the San Rafael City Council reviewed a report on the Draft Preferred Scenario, including the revised housing and employment projections. Following a lengthy discussion on the Draft Preferred Scenario, the City Council has directed the preparation of this letter with comments, which are presented as follows: Comments on Draft Preferred Scenario 1. The housine- oro iection for San Rafael is reasonable and acceptable. The latest draft projections show a reduction in housing growth of 330 households since the 2013 draft projections. San Rafael can accommodate the projected additional 3,400 households as projected for 2040. With the addition of 3,400 households San Rafael would have a total of 25,950 households, by 2040. San Rafael's General Plan 2020 had projected that by 2020 we would have 32,423 housing units. However from 2000 to 2010 our number of households had only grown by 393 units, but by this account we can reasonably expect that San Rafael accommodate the projected growth in households. 2. The 2040 iobs proiection growth for San Rafael is ambitious given the built environment conditions and constrained transportation network. The 2040 jobs ATTACHMENT 1 1400 FIFTII AVENUE PO Bos 151560 - SAN RAFAEL. CA 94915-1560 WW W.CITYOFSANRAFAEL.ORG projection (growth of 5,800 jobs citywide) in this latest scenario has been significantly reduced from the Adopted 2013 Plan Bay Area (by approximately 21% or 1,540 jobs), but there is still a significant concern regarding the feasibility to accommodate this projection. The reason why we're concerned is that: a) San Rafael is a built out community with very limited capacity for new commercial growth; and b) this development equivalent would require major transportation and utility service infrastructure improvements that exceed our current and planned capacity. We appreciate the opportunity to review and comment on the Draft Preferred Scenario plan. We look forward to a response to our comments. Should you have any questions regarding the information in this letter please feel free to contact Paul Jensen, our Community Development Director at (415) 485-5064 or email at oaul.iensen@citvofsanrafael.org. Sincerely, Gary 0. Phillips, Mayor CITY OF SAN RAFAEL cc: City Council Planning Commission City Manager City Attorney Public Works Director Economic Development Director Community Development Director ROUTING SLIP / APPROVAL FORM INSTRUCTIONS: Use this cover sheet with each submittal of a staff report before approval by the City Council. Save staff report (including this cover sheet) along with all related attachments in the Team Drive (T:) --> CITY COUNCIL AGENDA ITEMS 4 AGENDA ITEM APPROVAL PROCESS 4 [DEPT - AGENDA TOPIC] Agenda Item # Date of Meeting: 10/3/2016 From: Alan Montes, Planning Manager Department: Community Development Date: 9/23/2016 Topic: Plan Bay Area 2040 - Revised Projection Numbers Subject: The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) have requested input from local jurisdictions to inform the development of the Draft Preferred Scenario for Plan Bay Area (PBA) 2040 Type: ❑ Resolution ❑ Ordinance ❑ Professional Services Agreement ® Other: Staff Report and Comment Letter APPROVALS ® Finance Director Remarks: MM - approved with minor edit - 9/24/2016 ® City Attorney Remarks: LG -Approved 9/26/16 with additional minor revisions and comments. ® Author, review and accept City Attorney / Finance changes Remarks: All changes have been accepted and the document has been reviewed again after track changes were accepted ® City Manager Remarks: CITY OF �� 1F01Z��P COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT PHONE: 415-485-3085 FAX: 415-485-3184 October 3, 2016 REVISED Bay Area Metro Center ATTN: Miriam Chion and Ken Kirkey 375 Beale St Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 Subject: City of San Rafael Comments on Plan Bay Area Draft Preferred Scenario (City File No. P15-008) Dear Miriam Chion and Ken Kirkey, Over the past year, the City of San Rafael has actively Lbeen actively following the inundate to Plan Bay Area 2040. During this process, our staff has reviewed revisions and studies that have been released and have submitted written comments to ABAG/MTC on behalf of our City. The latest Draft Preferred Scenario was published in late August 2016 and we have been diligently reviewing these a^,.,,mentsthe growth Droiections for this scenario to determine the Plan implications on our City. On October 3, 2016, the San Rafael City Council reviewed a report on the Draft Preferred Scenario, including the revised housinghousehold and employment projections. Following a lengthy discussion on the Draft Preferred Scenario, the City Council has directed the preparation of this letter with comments, which are presented as follows: Comments on Draft Preferred Scenario The housinehousehold Droiection for San Rafael is reasonable and acceDtable. The latest draft projections show a reduction in housing growth of 330 households sineefrom those in the adoDted 2013 ElFaft project onsPlan Bay Area. San RcfApl Pan ac-eemmodate the r to addit;anal 3,490 households as pr^; *^a feF 2040. I.Alith the -addition of 3,400 i,euseh d,- San Rafael N „ia -h-ave te-t-al of 29,990 hA,,S^h^i,-IS by 2040. This Droiection is within the household growth Droiection range of the current San Rafael's General Plan 2020'9'0 had rr-ej *^d that. by 279 we would -2 2 housing units. However from 2000 to 2010, our number of households had only -Few rg ew by 393 units, but by this account we ATTACHMENT 1 1400 FIFTH AVENUE • PO BOX 151560 • SAN RAFAEL, CA 94915-1560 W W W.CITYOFSANRAFAEL.ORG can reasonably expect that San Rafael accommodate the projected growth in households. 2. The 2040 jobs Droiection growth for San Rafael is ambitious given the built environment conditions and constrained transDortation network. TWhile the 2040 jobs projection (growth of 5,800 jobs citywide) i-^ this latest ccenar- ^presented with the Draft Preferred Scenario has been signi f4cantl y rreduced from the Adopted 2013 Plan Bay Area (by approximately 21% or 1,540 jobs), bcWthere is still a significant concern regarding the feasibility to accommodate this projection. The reason why lve'r^ c^„e-^r„^a ;ss thatAs noted in our Dast comments on Plan Bav Area: a) San Rafael is a built out community with very limited capacity for new commercial growth; and b) thlse development equivalent to accommodate some of this job growth would require major transportation and utility service infrastructure improvements that exceed our current and planned capacity. In addition, we understand that a Dortion of this jobs Drojection has been realized as a result of the surging job growth in the Dast several vears (result of the recovered economvl. However. our staff has not been able to obtain sDecifics from your staff on this recent job growth: this information would be helDful for the Citv to better understand and analvze the jobs Droiection. Lastiv. as job growth varies by geograDhic area. Drior to further adjustments in this Droiection. it is recommended that vour staff consult with the Marin Economic Forum. The Marin Economic Forum is an excellent local source on business and emDlovment trends. We appreciate the opportunity to review and comment on the Draft Preferred Scenario planDroiections. We look forward to a response to our comments. Should you have any questions regarding the information in this letter please feel free to contact Paul Jensen, our Community Development Director at (415) 485-5064 or email at Daul.iensenOcitvofsanrafael.org. Sincerely, Gary 0. Phillips, Mayor CITY OF SAN RAFAEL cc: City Council Planning Commission City Manager City Attorney Public Works Director Economic Development Director Community Development Director