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Home My WebLink AboutCD Plan Bay Area 2040 Draft (ABAG) PPTREPORT TO CITY COUNCIL October 3, 2016 Assembly Bill 32 & Senate Bil 375 • AB 32 — Reduce GHG Emissions - 2006 Statewide mandate to reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 San Rafael adopted CCAP in 2009 • SB 375 — Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) - 2008 Link land use with Regional Trans Plan (RTP) Key goal = reduce vehicle miles traveled SCS required for each region in the State SCS prepared by regional agencies- ABAG/MTC "Plan Bay Area" SCS for Bay Area Region • Partnership of ABAG & MTC • Goal= achieve 7% per capita reduction in GHG emissions from 2005 levels by 2020 and 15% by 2035 • 2040 jobs/housing projects growth concentrated in inner -urban areas more accessible to transportation network, reducing pressure on continued green field development in outer region = Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) • Primary tool = Priority Development Areas (PDA) • The Plan was adopted in 2013 and is intended to be updated/revised every four years (included RHNA) Plan Bay Area Thre%- Components To RTP • Land Use Component 2040 jobs/housing growth projections for region incorporating PDAs • Transportation Component Maintain/expand existing roads, bridges, transit Transportation/transit funding programs • Resource Protection Component Priority Conservation Areas (PCA) Priority Development Areas (PDA) "Areas along, close to or within transit modes and connections that are earmarked for concentrated growth." • PDA receives increased concentration of projected growth to reduce outward growth to green fields 77% of new housing and 63% of new jobs • PDA qualifies for increased grants and funding opportunities for planning and transportation + reduced CEQA review • 200 PDAs in Bay Area, two are located in Marin County • San Rafael had originally designated two PDAs (Downtown and Civic Center), in 2008-2009. However, In 2013 the Civic Center PDA was rescinded by the City Council on a 3-2 vote Priority Development Areas (PDA) A Map of Marin County PDAs and PCAs A, 0 Pg. Report on PDA • Former Civic Center PDA (rescinded in 2013) not included in Plan update • Council directed that Civic Center PDA it be revisited at a future date Plan update = no changes in parameters, conditions or criteria for PDAs • Not recommended that Civic Center PDA be considered for reinstatement; more appropriate to address with upcoming General Plan 2040 process Plan Bay Area Update • No change to components or structure of PBA • Three PBA "scenarios" published earlier this year Urban Core Growth Scenario PDA Growth Focus Scenario Disbursed Growth Scenario • Draft Preferred Scenario developed and published = Hybrid of two (urban core growth +PDA focus) • Update does not include RHNA Growth Forecast Methodology for Plan Update • "UrbanSims" model used to develop growth projections • Applied a "base year" of 2010, so some of the growth since 2010 is accounted for in the projections • Forecasts future land use patterns taking into account variable such as local zoning controls and development assumptions in local General Plans • 2010 US Census used for base year household data • Dun & Bradstreet map used for employment data and forecasts Revised Regional Household/Jobs Projections draft Preferred 5cenaria (2015) 1 PBA 20B Projetians 2416-24131 HOUSEHOLOS 2010 Households 2040 households Increase Total 2010 Households. 2040 households % Increase Total Difference Aiameda 548,000 724,700 32% 176,700 545,144 705,334 2996 160,190 16,514 Contra 4osta 375,904 491,200 3196 115,344 375,364 464,]54 24% 88,790 25,514 Marin 1031800 1151800 1 129b 12,444 143,214 112,454 81844 1 3+154 Napa 49,200 55,700 13% 6,544 48,880 56,314 15% 7,434 (934) San Francisco 347,144 475,544 37% 128,444 345,814 447,354 2996 141,534 26,874 San Mateo 256,944 315,800 2396 58,9W 257,844 315,090 22% 57,234 1654 Santa Clara 597,100 846,640 42% 249,500 604,200 818,394 3596 214,190 35,314 Solana 142,344 174,344 20% 28,444 141,764 166,744 1996 26,950 L050 Sonoma 186,800 231,444 24% 44,244 185,834 224,754 1996 34,910 9,294 Region 2,847,200 3,426,700 3196 819,504 2,648,424 3,348,114 27% 700,044 119,414 Draft Preferred Scenario 124151 PBA 2413 Projections 2416-2413 JOBS 2414 Employment 2444 Employment % Increase Total 2414 Employment 2040 Employment n,re ase Total Difference Alameda 745,544 978,300 3996 272,800 D4,450 X47,650 m 253,244 19,500 Contra Costa 364,244 472,744 31% 112,544 344,920 467,390 36% 122,474 -9,974 Marin 124,844 137,644 1 1496 15,844 114+734 129,140 1896 16,444 1 -L544 Napa 74,744 79,000 12% 8, 344 70,0 89,540 28% 18, 840 -10,590 San Francisco 576,940 867,800 54% 310,940 566,724 759,540 34% 190,780 124,124 San Mateo 343,344 475,344 3896 132,444 345,244 445,480 2996 99,880 a1201 Santa Clara 911,500 1,269,700 3996 358,240 926,260 1,229,534 3396 343,274 54,934 So l a n o 134, 200 156,540 20% 26,M 132, 354 179,934 36% 47,580 -21194 Sonoma 202,700 241,400 1996 38,700 192,010 257,460 34% 55,454 -26,754 Region 3,421,800 4,6 8,300 37% 1,276,540 3,3851290 4,545,220 3396 1,119,920 156,594 Revised Marin County Household/Job Projections Households Jurisdiction Summary Level Belvedere Tota I Corte Madera Total Fairfax Total Larkspur Total Mill Valley Total Novato Total Ross Tota I San Anselrno Total San Rafael ITotal DT PDA 3,620 Sausalito Total Tiburon Total Marin County Total Unincorporate PDA Marin County Total Total PDA Households 2010 (Baseline) Draft Preferred Scenario 120161 Households Forecast I Difference 2040 {Forecast -Baseline] 900 3,900 3,400 5.850 5,900 20,150 800 5,200 22,550 1,650 4,150 3,600 27,450 1,500 103,900 3,150 1,000 4,350 3,550 6,300 8,150 21,350 900 25,950 2,750 INDED 4,500 3,850 30,600 2,050 115,900 4,800 100 450 150 450 2,250 1,200 100 250 1,100 350 4,110 PBA 2013 Projections 250 3,730 Households 2010 Households Forecast Difference Forecast (Baseline) 2040 (Forecast -Baseline) Change 930 970 40 60 3,790 4,080 290 160 3,380 3,620 240 -90 5,910 6,450 540 -90 6,080 6,540 460 1790 20,280 21,450 1,170 30 800 860 60 40 5,240 5,530 290 -40 22,760 26,490 3,730 -330 2,420 3,830 1,410 -310 350 4,110 4,470360 250 3,730 4,000 270 3,150 26,190 27,580 1,390 1 550 4.290 4,810 520 12,000 103,200 1 111040 8,840 3 1,650 6,710 81640 1,930 - Employment Draft Preferred Scerrono (2016) PBA 2013 Projections E 2010 C . . _ t Difference Employment 2010 Employment Difference Forecast Jurisdiction Summary Level (Baseline) Forecast 2040 (Forecast -Baseline) (Baseline) Forecast 2040 (Forecast -Baseline) Change Belvedere Total 300 300 0 430 480 50 -50 Corte Madera Total 6,650 7,450 800 7,940 8,260 320 480 Fairfax Total 1,550 1,700 150 1,490 1,820 330 -180 Larkspur Total 7,450 8,800 1350 7,190 7,810 620 730 Mill Valley Total 6,000 6,600 6w 5,980 6,790 810 -210 Novato Total 26,400 29,500 3100 20,890 24,390 3,500 -400 Ross Total 350 400 50 510 590 Sa -30 5a Ansel mo Total 3,300 3,650 3501 3,740 4,360 620 -270 San Rafael Total 43,300 49,100 59WI 37,6201 44,960 1 7,340 -1540 DT PDA ICC 9,000 10,100 1100 8,250 10,480 2,230 -1130 PDA RECSINDED 5,660 6,860 1,200 RECSINDED Sausalito Tota 1 5,200 5,800 600 6,220 7,640 1,420 -820 Tiburon Total 2,850 2,900 50 2,340 2,690 350 -300 Marin County Total 17,500 21,350 3850 16,380 19,360 2,980 870 Unincorporate PDA 650 750 1001 2,260 2,960 700 -600 Marin County Total 120,800 137,600 16800 110,730 1291150 15,420 -1620 Total PDA 9,650 10,850 1200 10,510 13,440 2,930 -1730 Plan EM :. A -. Land Use Component 2040 (Revised) 2040 Household Projections • Overall projections for Marin higher than 2013 Plan but lower for San Rafael • Of 819,500 households projected for region by 2040, 12,000 units projected for Marin (1.5% of regional share) • Marin = 12% increase as compared to projected households for region (31%) • San Rafael projection is 3,400 households - Downtown PDA = 1,100 households Plan ;. A -. Land Use Component 2040 (Revised) 2040 Jobs Projections • Overall projections for Marin and San Rafael lower than 2013 Plan • Of 1.28 M jobs projected for region by 2040, 16,800 jobs projected for Marin (1% of regional share) • Marin = 14% increase as compared to projected jobs for region (37%) • San Rafael projection is 5,800 jobs - Downtown PDA = 1,100 jobs • 2040 Household projection = Summary Reasonable and Acceptable; within GP 2020 growth projections Projections are not tied to RHNA • 2040 Job projection = Ambitious, even though some of this growth has occurred since 2010 Plan `'' �4 -' Staff Recommendation 2 is Accept Report • Direct Staff to forward comments on the Preferred Draft Scenario projections to ABAG and MTC Quest� �1� � J Regional Agencies Roles & Responsibilities • ABAG - Land Use Planning Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA)- since 1981 (8 -yr cycle; City Housing Element complies) Project & track regional growth since 1970's (jobs and housing projections every 2-4 yrs; not required to be adopted by local agencies) • MTC - Transportation Planning Manage & oversee Regional Trans Plan (RTP) Distributes funds/grants to county congestion management agencies (e.g., TAM) In May 2016, the MTC and ABAG Executive Boards voted to merge the two agencies to increase collaboration between land use and transportation Plan `'''4 -' Transit Priorit Areas 2 SB 743 creates a new exemption from CEQA for certain projects that are consistent with a Specific Plan. (See New Public Resources Code Section 21155.4.) A Specific Plan is a local plan that contains specific policies and development regulations for a defined area such as a downtown core or along a transit corridor. The exemption applies if a project meets all of the following criteria: 1.It is a residential, employment center, or mixed use project; 2.It is located within a transit priority area; 3.The project is consistent with a specific plan for which an environmental impact report was certified; and 4.It is consistent with an adopted sustainable communities strategy or alternative planning strategy. The exemption cannot be applied if the project would cause new or worse significant impacts compared to what was analyzed in the environmental impact report for the specific plan. In that case, supplemental environmental review must be prepared. In a preliminary review of existing specific plans, OPR identified over 100 specific plans throughout California that might enable use of this exemption. Other potentially -eligible specific plans are under development. Plan `'''4 -' Transit Priority Areas 2 • "Consistent with an adopted sustainable communities strategy or alternative planning strategy"means that a project is consistent with "with the general use designation, density, building intensity, and applicable policies specified for the project area in either a sustainable communities strategy or an alternative planning strategy for which the State Air Resources Board, pursuant to subparagraph (H) of paragraph (2) of subdivision (b) of Section 65080 of the Government Code, has accepted a metropolitan planning organization's determination that the sustainable communities strategy or the alternative planning strategy would, if implemented, achieve the greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets." • "Employment center project" means "a project located on property zoned for commercial uses with a floor area ratio of no less than 0.75 and that is located within a transit priority area." • "Infill site" means "a lot located within an urban area that has been previously developed, or on a vacant site where at least 75 percent of the perimeter of the site adjoins, or is separated only by an improved public right-of-way from, parcels that are developed with qualified urban uses." • "Transit priority area" means "an area within one-half mile of a major transit stop that is existing or planned, if the planned stop is scheduled to be completed within the planning horizon included in a Transportation Improvement Program adopted pursuant to Section 450.216 or 450.322 of Title 23 of the Code of Federal Regulations." • "Major transit stop" means "a site containing an existing rail transit station, a ferry terminal served by either a bus or rail transit service, or the intersection of two or more major bus routes with a frequency of service interval of 15 minutes or less during the morning and afternoon peak commute periods." Metropolitan planning organizations may be able to assist in identifying existing and planned major transit stops. Other relevant definitions are contained in the new Public Resource Code Section 21099.