HomeMy WebLinkAboutPlanning Commission 2022-02-15 Agenda Packet
Planning Commission
Regular Meeting
Tuesday, February 15, 2022, 7:00 P.M.
AGENDA
Virtual Meeting
Watch on Webinar: https://tinyurl.com/pc-2022-02-15
Watch on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/cityofsanrafael
Telephone: (669) 900-9128
Meeting ID: 863 1489 9286#
One Tap Mobile: US: +16699009128,,86314899286#
CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) ADVISORY NOTICE
In response to Assembly Bill 361, the City of San Rafael is offering teleconference
without complying with the procedural requirements of Government Code section
54953(b)(3). This meeting will be held virtually using Zoom.
How to participate in the meeting:
• Submit public comments in writing. Correspondence received by 10:00
p.m. on Tuesday the week before the meeting will be provided with the
agenda materials provided to the Commission. Correspondence received
after this deadline but by 12:00 p.m. the day before the hearing will be conveyed
to the Commission as a supplement. Correspondence received after this
deadline will not be distributed to the Commission but will be saved in the project
administrative record. Send correspondence to the project planner or to
PlanningPublicComment@cityofsanrafael.org; or send in writing to Planning
Division, CDD; 1400 5th Ave. 3rd Fl.; San Rafael, CA 94901.
• Join the Zoom webinar and use the 'raise hand' feature to provide verbal public
comment.
• Dial-in to Zoom's telephone number using the meeting ID and provide verbal
public comment.
Any member of the public who needs accommodations should contact the City Clerk
(email city.clerk@cityofsanrafael.org or phone at 415-485-3066) who will use their best
efforts to provide reasonable accommodations to provide as much accessibility as
possible while also maintaining public safety in accordance with the City procedure for
resolving reasonable accommodation requests.
Members of the public may speak on Agenda items.
CALL TO ORDER
RECORDING OF MEMBERS PRESENT AND ABSENT
APPROVAL OR REVISION OF ORDER OF AGENDA ITEMS
PUBLIC NOTIFICATION OF MEETING PROCEDURES
ORAL COMMUNICATIONS FROM THE PUBLIC
Remarks are limited to three minutes per person and may be on anything within the subject
matter jurisdiction of the body. Remarks on non-agenda items will be heard first, remarks on
agenda items will be heard at the time the item is discussed.
CONSENT CALENDAR
The Consent Calendar allows the Commission to take action, without discussion, on Agenda
items for which there are no persons present who wish to speak, and no Commission
members who wish to discuss.
1. Approval of the Planning Commission Meeting Minutes of January 25, 2022
Recommended Action – Approve minutes as submitted
ACTION ITEMS
2. Progress Report on the San Rafael 2023-2031 Housing Element Update
Progress report and update on the 2023-2031 Housing Element will be presented to
the Planning Commission. This will include the Evaluation of the Prior Element and a
summary of the Housing Needs Assessment. The report will also recap initial and
upcoming community engagement activities, as the Housing Sites Inventory task,
which is about to begin. Case Nos.: GPA16-001 & P16-013
Project Planner: Barry Miller barry.miller@cityofsanrafael.org
Recommended Action – Consider public comment, discuss relevant housing-related
issues, and accept the informational report
DIRECTOR’S REPORT
COMMISSION COMMUNICATION
ADJOURNMENT
Any records relating to an agenda item, received by a majority or more of the Commission
less than 72 hours before the meeting, shall be available for inspection online. Sign Language
interpreters may be requested by calling (415) 485-3066 (voice), emailing
city.clerk@cityofsanrafael.org or using the California Telecommunications Relay Service by
dialing “711”, at least 72 hours in advance of the meeting. Copies of documents are available
in accessible formats upon request.
The Planning Commission will take up no new business after 11:00 p.m. at regularly
scheduled meetings. This shall be interpreted to mean that no agenda item or other business
will be discussed or acted upon after the agenda item under consideration at 11:00 p.m. The
Commission may suspend this rule to discuss and/or act upon any additional agenda item(s)
deemed appropriate by a unanimous vote of the members present. Appeal rights: any person
may file an appeal of the Planning Commission's action on agenda items within five business
days (normally 5:00 p.m. on the following Tuesday) and within 10 calendar days of an action
on a subdivision. An appeal letter shall be filed with the City Clerk, along with an appeal fee
of $350 (for non-applicants) or a $4,476 deposit (for applicants) made payable to the City of
San Rafael, and shall set forth the basis for appeal. There is a $50.00 additional charge for
request for continuation of an appeal by appellant.
Minutes subject to approval at the meeting of February 15, 2022
Planning Commission
Regular Meeting
Tuesday, January 25, 2022, 7:00 P.M.
MINUTES
Virtual Meeting
Watch on Webinar: https://tinyurl.com/pc-2022-01-25
Watch on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/cityofsanrafael
Telephone: (669) 900-9128
Meeting ID: 858-4988-7189#
One Tap Mobile: US: +16699009128,,85849887189#
CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) ADVISORY NOTICE
In response to Assembly Bill 361, the City of San Rafael is offering teleconference
without complying with the procedural requirements of Government Code section
54953(b)(3). This meeting will be held virtually using Zoom.
How to participate in the meeting:
• Submit public comments in writing. Correspondence received by 5:00 p.m. the
Wednesday before this public hearing will be provided with the agenda materials
provided to the Commission. Correspondence received after this deadline but by
5:00 p.m. the day of the hearing will be conveyed to the Commission as a
supplement. Send correspondence to the project planner and to
planningpubliccomment@cityofsanrafael.org
• Join the Zoom webinar and use the 'raise hand' feature to provide verbal public
comment.
• Dial-in to Zoom's telephone number using the meeting ID and provide verbal
public comment.
Any member of the public who needs accommodations should contact the City Clerk
(email city.clerk@cityofsanrafael.org or phone at 415-485-3066) who will use their best
efforts to provide reasonable accommodations to provide as much accessibility as
possible while also maintaining public safety in accordance with the City procedure for
resolving reasonable accommodation requests.
Present: Chair Previtali
Commissioner Harris
Commissioner Haveman
Commissioner Mercado
Commissioner Samudzi
Absent Vice Chair Saude
Also Present: Leslie Mendez, Planning Manager
Jeff Ballantine, Senior Planner
Alicia Giudice, Community Development Director
Jacob Noonan, Housing Program Manager
CALL TO ORDER
Chair Previtali called the meeting to order at 7:00 p.m. He then invited Planning Manager
Leslie Mendez to call the roll. All commissioners were present, except for Vice Chair Saude.
APPROVAL OR REVISION OF ORDER OF AGENDA ITEMS
None
PUBLIC NOTIFICATION OF MEETING PROCEDURES
Chair Previtali invited Planning Manager Leslie Mendez who informed the community the
meeting would be streamed live to YouTube and members of the public would provide
public comment either on the telephone or through Zoom. She explained the process for
community participation on the telephone and Zoom.
Chair Previtali reviewed the procedures for the meeting.
ORAL COMMUNICATIONS FROM THE PUBLIC
None
CONSENT CALENDAR
Chair Previtali invited public comment; however, there was none.
Commissioner Haveman moved and Commissioner Samudzi seconded to approve the
Consent Calendar.
1. Approval of the Planning Commission Meeting Minutes of January 11, 2022
Approved minutes as submitted
AYES: Commissioners: Harris, Haveman, Mercado, Samudzi & Chair Previtali
NOES: Commissioners: None
ABSENT: Commissioners: Saude
ABSTAIN: Commissioners: None
Motion carried 5-0
ACTION ITEMS
2. 1007, 1020, & 1030 Northgate Drive (“Northgate Walk”)
To modify Environmental and Design Review Permit (ED16-038), Use Permit (UP16-
018), and Vesting Tentative Map (S16-001) to reduce the number of required
affordable housing units from 28 to 14 in a 136-unit residential development pursuant to
SRMC Section 14.16.030
Project Planner: Jeff Ballantine jeff.ballantine@cityofsanrafael.org
Leslie Mendez, Planning Manager introduced Jeff Ballantine, Senior Planner who presented
the Staff Report.
Applicant Team gave a presentation.
Staff and Applicant Team responded to questions from the Commissioners.
Chair Previtali invited public comment.
Speaker: Kate Powers
Staff and Applicant Team responded to public comment.
Staff responded to further questions from the Commissioners.
Commissioner Samudzi moved and Commissioner Haveman seconded to adopt the
resolution.
Commissioners provided comments.
AYES: Commissioners: Harris, Haveman, Mercado, Samudzi & Chair Previtali
NOES: Commissioners: None
ABSENT: Commissioners: Saude
ABSTAIN: Commissioners: None
Motion carried 5-0
RESOLUTION 22-04 - RESOLUTION OF THE SAN RAFAEL PLANNING COMMISSION
MODIFYING CONDITIONS OF APPROVAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND DESIGN
REVIEW (ED16-038), USE PERMIT (UP16-018) AND VESTING TENTATIVE MAP (S16-
001) TO ALLOW FULFILLMENT OF THE AFFORDABLE HOUSING REQUIREMENT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH CITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 14890. THE PROJECT IS
LOCATED AT 1007, 1020 AND 1030 NORTHGATE DR. (FORMERLY 1005 AND 1010
NORTHGATE DR.; APNS: 178-240-17 & -21)
3. Design Review Advisory Committee (DRAC) 1-Year Pilot Program
Resolution Recommending to the City Council Adoption of an Ordinance Amending the
Zoning Code to Establish the Design Review Advisory Committee (DRAC); and
Adoption of a Resolution to Establish a 1-year DRAC Pilot Program
Project Planner: Jacob Noonan jacob.noonan@cityofsanrafael.org
Project Planner: Alicia Giudice alicia.giudice@cityofsanrafael.org
Recommended Action – Adopt the resolution
Leslie Mendez, Planning Manager introduced Jacob Noonan, Housing Program Manager
and Alicia Giudice, Community Development Director who presented the Staff Report.
Staff responded to questions from the Commissioners.
Chair Previtali invited public comment.
Speakers: Kate Powers, Victoria DeWitt, Shirley Fischer
Staff responded to public comment.
Commissioners provided comments.
Staff responded to further questions from the Commissioners.
Commissioner Mercado moved and Commissioner Harris seconded to adopt the resolution.
AYES: Commissioners: Harris, Haveman, Mercado, Samudzi & Chair Previtali
NOES: Commissioners: None
ABSENT: Commissioners: Saude
ABSTAIN: Commissioners: None
Motion carried 5-0
RESOLUTION 22-05 – RESOLUTION OF THE CITY OF SAN RAFAEL PLANNING
COMMISSION RECOMMENDING TO THE CITY COUNCIL ADOPTION OF AN
ORDINANCE OF THE CITY OF SAN RAFAEL AMENDING TITLE 14.25.070 (DESIGN
REVIEW BOARD) TO ESTABLISH THE DESIGN REVIEW ADVOSORY COMMITTEE
(DRAC); AND ADOPTION OF A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY OF SAN RAFAEL TO
ESTABLISH A 1-YEAR DRAC PILOT PROGRAM (P22-01)
DIRECTOR’S REPORT
Planning Manager reported on the following items:
• Los Gamos Project, which Planning Commission saw and recommended on December 14
will go to the City Council on February 7
• Planning Commission will have one meeting in February (February 15), with one item
currently scheduled (Update to the Housing Element)
COMMISSION COMMUNICATION
• Chair Previtali gave an update on the Housing Element Working Group.
ADJOURNMENT
Chair Previtali adjourned the meeting at 8:35 p.m.
___________________________
LINDSAY LARA, City Clerk
APPROVED THIS _____DAY OF____________, 2022
_____________________________________
JON PREVITALI, Chair
Meeting Date: February 15, 2022
Agenda Item:
2
Case Numbers:
GPA16-001 & P16-13
Project
Planner:
Barry Miller
barry.miller@cityofsanrafael.org
(415) 485-3423
REPORT TO PLANNING COMMISSION
SUBJECT: Progress Report on the San Rafael 2023-2031 Housing Element Update. A
progress report and update on the 2023-2031 Housing Element will be presented to the Planning
Commission. This will include the Evaluation of the Prior Element and a summary of the Housing
Needs Assessment. The report will also recap initial and upcoming community engagement
activities, as the Housing Sites Inventory task, which is about to begin. Case Nos.: GPA16-001 &
P16-013.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The City is in the process of updating the Housing Element of the San Rafael General Plan. The
update is mandated by State law for all 101 cities and nine counties in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Revised elements must be adopted by January 31, 2023. The Housing Element covers an eight-year
time period; the adopted Housing Element covers 2015-2023 and the new Element will cover 2023-
2031. The Housing Element is the City’s plan for conserving and maintaining its housing supply,
removing regulatory barriers to housing production, and meeting the housing needs of all residents,
including lower-income households and persons with special needs.
Later in 2022, the Planning Commission will hold public hearings on the Draft Housing Element and
mak e recommendations to the City Council on the Element and a supporting environmental review
document. The purpose of the February 15 meeting is to provide a progress report, an overview of
upcoming tasks, and the timeline for the remainder of 2022. This is also an opportunity for public
comment and Commissioner discussion of housing issues and potential future housing policies and
programs.
RECOMMENDATION
It is recommended that the Planning Commission consider public comment, discuss relevant housing-
related issues, and accept the informational report.
PROJECT BACKGROUND
Overview
Every city and county in California is required to adopt a housing element as part of its general plan.
The housing element is the only part of the general plan that must be submitted to the State for
certification, a process that is performed by the State Department of Housing and Community
REPORT TO PLANNING COMMISSION Page 2
Case No: GPA16-001 & P16-13
Development (HCD). Cities without certified housing elements face adverse consequences, including
limited access to State funding and vulnerability to lawsuits and financial penalties. To avoid such
consequences, HCD must make a formal determination that each housing element complies with
Government Code requirements, including demonstration that each city and county is accommodating
its “fair share” of the region’s housing needs and is “affirmatively furthering fair housing.”
San Rafael’s current Housing Element was adopted on January 5, 2015 and was certified by the State
on January 23, 2015. The planning period covered by that Housing Element is January 31, 2015
through January 31, 2023. The next Housing Element is due on January 31, 2023 and will cover the
planning period from January 31, 2023 through January 31, 2031. To ensure sufficient time for data
collection and analysis, community engagement, public hearings, responses to State comments, and
environmental review, the City initiated the update process in September 2021. The timeline allows
roughly 10 months to develop a Draft Housing Element and another seven months to go through an
iterative process with State reviewers, the Planning Commission, the City Council, and the community
to revise, finalize, and adopt the Draft Housing Element.
The contents of the Housing Element are specified by State law. HCD has developed guidelines for
local governments that list the data to be collected and analyzed, the research questions that must be
answered, and the standards that must be met. For example, cities must demonstrate that they are
planning for a “wide variety of housing types.” This requires more than an aspirational statement—the
City must show (and quantify) that it allows multi-family housing in specific density ranges, allows for
emergency shelter “by right” in at least one zoning district, allows mobile and manufactured homes,
does not apply special rules for transitional and supportive housing, and has adopted specific zoning
requirements and densities that support its policy goals.
The requirements have become more rigorous over time. The policy and program requirements also
have become more demanding. In response to the statewide housing crisis, dozens of housing bills
have been approved by the legislature in the last few years. Some have included specific policy and
program requirements for Housing Elements.
Regional Housing Needs Allocation
The driving force behind each community’s Housing Element is the Regional Housing Needs Allocation
(RHNA). The RHNA process has been in effect since 1969, when the State legislature mandated that
all communities do their “fair share” to meet California’s housing needs. The process has evolved over
the last 50 years, with an increasing focus on factors such as equity and sustainability.
The RHNA process begins at the state level. California HCD determines the projected housing need
over an eight-year period for each region in California, including the nine-county Bay Area. The need
for each region is broken down into four income categories—very low, low, moderate, and above
moderate—ensuring that housing is constructed for persons of all economic means. It is then up to the
Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) in its capacity as the regional Council of Governments
to disaggregate the RHNA to the nine counties and 101 cities that comprise the Bay Area.
Ultimately, each city and county is assigned a specific number of units for which it must plan. The
city/county itself does not construct the units, as this is beyond the financial capacity and traditional role
of most local governments. However, local jurisdictions must zone a sufficient amount of land to allow
for construction of the allocated units by the private and non-profit sectors. Additionally, local
jurisdictions must demonstrate that progress is being made toward meeting their allocation. Cities and
counties that are not demonstrating progress toward RHNA requirements must streamline housing
developments that include specified percentages of affordable housing and are encouraged to
REPORT TO PLANNING COMMISSION Page 3
Case No: GPA16-001 & P16-13
undertake programs to facilitate housing development. Finally, jurisdictions must demonstrate that their
plan for accommodating the RHNA does not concentrate low-income housing in particular areas and
supports broader goals to end segregation and promote fair housing practices.
On June 9, 2020, HCD notified ABAG that the regional housing need for the 2023-2031 period was
441,176 units. The assignment is 2.34 times higher than the need identified for the 2015-2023 period,
which was 187,990 units. The increase reflects the prolonged and sustained effects of Bay Area jobs
growing at a faster rate than housing for the last eight years, and the growing affordability gap among
Bay Area households. It also reflects changes to the methodology that allow the State to consider
existing unmet needs, as well as anticipated future needs for the next eight years.
During Fall 2020, the 441,176 units were allocated to cities and counties with the guidance of a 37-
member “Housing Methodology Committee” (HMC) comprised of local government staff, local elected
officials, and stakeholders from jurisdictions around the region. The HMC provided direction on
weighting factors so that housing could be directed in a way that achieved regional goals such as
equity, mobility, jobs-housing balance, and sustainability. This process continued for several months.
The methodology was finalized by ABAG in January 2021 and approved by the State in April 2021. The
Draft jurisdiction-level RHNA allocations were approved in May 2021.
San Rafael’s allocation for the upcoming period (2023-2031) is 3,220 units. This represents a 220
percent increase over the 2015-2023 allocation of 1,007 units. Marin County, including the
unincorporated areas and the 11 cities, saw much steeper rates of increase. The countywide RHNA
was 2,298 units in the last cycle and is 14,405 units in the current cycle, an increase of 526 percent.
The cities of Mill Valley, San Anselmo, Larkspur, Corte Madera, Fairfax, and Sausalito all saw
increases of over 600 percent. However, in terms of sheer numbers, San Rafael’s increase is the
largest among the 11 Marin cities.
ABAG provided an opportunity for cities and counties to appeal their allocations. Nine of the 11 Marin
County cities, plus the County of Marin, filed appeals in July 2021. The cities of Novato and San Rafael
did not file appeals. Outside of Marin County, another 18 Bay Area jurisdictions also appealed their
allocations.
ABAG conducted hearings on the appeals in September and October. The appeals from all nine Marin
County cities and the County of Marin were denied. Only one of the 29 appeals was approved, based
on a technicality that resulted in units being moved from unincorporated Contra Costa County to the
City of Pittsburg. The RHNA was finalized by ABAG in December 2021.
ABAG disaggregates the RHNA into four income categories. San Rafael’s 3,220-unit allocation by
income level is shown below. The allocation for 2015-2023 is provided for comparison. The percentage
of need associated with low and very low income households has increased from 38.5% of the total in
the current cycle to 41.9% in the upcoming cycle.
Housing Element Assignments for RHNA Cycles 5 and 6
Income Level 2015-2023 Percent of total 2023-2031 Percent of total
Very Low 240 23.8% 857 26.6%
Low 148 14.7% 492 15.3%
Moderate 181 18.0% 521 16.2%
Above Moderate 438 43.5% 1,350 41.9%
TOTAL 1,007 100.0% 3,220 100.0%
REPORT TO PLANNING COMMISSION Page 4
Case No: GPA16-001 & P16-13
As a benchmark, a household of four earning less than $91,350 in Marin County is considered “very
low income” and a household of four earning between $91,350 and $146,350 is considered “low”
income. These income thresholds are used by the state to determine eligibility for various state and
federal housing assistance programs. The income ranges follow a sliding scale based on the number
of people in each household.
In general, the “above moderate” income units correspond to market-rate single family homes,
townhomes, and condominiums. “Moderate income” units typically include market-rate rental
apartments. “Low income” units include a mix of units that are “affordable by design” such as accessory
dwelling units (ADUs) and units that are income restricted and subsidized. “Very low” income units are
typically subsidized. A subset of very low income units serves extremely low income residents and
includes single room occupancy hotels (SROs), emergency shelter, and transitional and supportive
housing.
The addition of 3,220 housing units would represent a roughly 13 percent increase in the total number
of housing units in San Rafael. It would require the construction of roughly 400 units a year, which is a
much higher rate of construction than San Rafael has seen in the last 20 years. While current State
law does not penalize the City if the target is not met, there is increasing pressure from the State to
achieve more rapid housing construction at all price points. There are also new requirements requiring
each city to demonstrate good faith efforts to produce housing equitability and for all income groups.
Content of the Housing Element
The existing (2015-2023) San Rafael Housing Element is formatted as two documents—a policy
document (roughly 30 pages) and a technical appendix (roughly 175 pages). This format allows the
policy document to be formatted as a “chapter” of the 2040 General Plan, while the technical appendix
stands on its own as a supporting document for State reviewers. State requirements make this chapter
much longer than any other part of the general plan and necessitate the “split” format.
Almost every housing element in California includes the basic components listed below. San Rafael’s
work program for the Update follows this outline, with tasks corresponding to each chapter, plus a task
for community engagement and another task for adoption.
1. Evaluation of Accomplishments. The Government Code requires every housing element to include
an evaluation of the policies and programs in the previous Element, including how effectively the
existing element is working. The evaluation includes recommendations on whether existing policies
and programs should be revised or deleted and suggests possible new policies and programs.
2. Needs Assessment. This chapter provides detailed tables and narrative on each community’s
demographics, including age, household size, household type, persons with disabilities, unhoused
residents, housing costs, employment and income, and percent of income spent on housing. It also
includes detailed information on housing stock, including rate of construction (units per year),
housing type and tenure (rent/own), housing age and condition, and code enforcement issues. The
contents of this section are prescribed by State law.
3. Housing Constraints. This section evaluates governmental and non-governmental constraints to
housing production. This includes zoning and land use regulations, building codes, and
requirements for particular housing types, such as emergency shelter, Accessory Dwelling Units
(ADUs), and transitional housing. It also includes local fees, permitting costs, processing time, and
special requirements such as inclusionary zoning. Non-governmental constraints include land and
REPORT TO PLANNING COMMISSION Page 5
Case No: GPA16-001 & P16-13
construction costs, financing availability, community opposition, and similar factors. San Rafael has
researched these issues extensively in the last few years and will build on the feedback provided by
the development community and others in its upcoming analysis.
4. Sites Inventory. Every city and county must show that it has adequate land capacity to meet its
RHNA by presenting a detailed inventory of potential housing sites. Eligible sites include approved
development projects, vacant sites that are zoned for housing or mixed-use development, and
underutilized sites where housing is a permitted use. The State has provided detailed guidance as
to what constitutes an “underutilized site”, and what may or may not be counted. In addition, cities
must show that they can accommodate not only their total RHNA, but the specific allocations for low
and very low-income units. This requires zoning for multi-family development as well as single
family homes.
5. Housing Resources. This section evaluates the resources available to support affordable housing
production, including financial resources and administrative resources. It also describes energy
conservation programs.
6. Goals, Policies, and Programs. Like the other elements of the General Plan, the Housing Element
includes goals, policies, and programs addressing housing issues and topics. State law requires
considerable detail in the description of housing programs, including information on timing,
resources, responsible parties, and metrics for evaluating progress. Quantified objectives must be
included for housing production, conservation, and rehabilitation.
Since adoption of the 2015 San Rafael Housing Element, the State has approved legislation requiring a
detailed evaluation (with tables and maps) showing fair housing, income inequality, and segregation
patterns in each community (AB 686). This includes a requirement that housing sites be distributed in a
way that deconcentrates poverty and fosters integration. This analysis (referred to as the “Affirmatively
Furthering Fair Housing” or AFFH analysis) is typically presented as an appendix to the Housing
Element and is typically 50-100 pages in length.
Community Engagement Program
State law requires a robust community engagement program for housing element updates, with a focus
on lower income and special needs populations that have historically been under-represented in local
planning processes. Recent legislation to “Affirmatively Further Fair Housing” was aimed in part at
making it easier for lower income and non-English speaking residents to participate, so that housing
policies and programs are reflective of the needs of those facing housing challenges. These
requirements are particularly relevant in San Rafael given local demographics and historic land use and
development patterns. In 2021, the City adopted an Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion Element as part of
General Plan 2040. This further underscores the City’s commitment to be more inclusive in its
planning, outreach, and service delivery.
Over the coming months, the City will be working with residents, businesses, stakeholder groups,
housing service providers, and community-based organizations to solicit input on housing issues. Key
components of the engagement program include:
• An introductory workshop on Zoom was convened in November 2021. The Housing Element was
described and participants were invited to comment on housing issues. The workshop included
simultaneous interpretation in Spanish and Vietnamese. About 35 people participated.
REPORT TO PLANNING COMMISSION Page 6
Case No: GPA16-001 & P16-13
• A survey on housing issues, challenges, and opportunities in the City. The survey has been
designed and tested is about to be launched in English, Spanish, Chinese, and Vietnamese. It is
primarily an electronic survey but paper copies will be available.
• Monthly meetings of a 13-member Housing Element Working Group appointed by the City Council.
The working group includes representatives from various groups, including neighborhoods,
environmental advocates, older adults, the business community, tenants, housing advocates,
affordable housing developers, for-profit housing developers, fair housing advocates, the Latino
community, and unhoused residents. A representative of the Planning Commission serves on the
Working Group. The group has had two meetings to date, with five more scheduled.
• Presentations to community groups and organizations. Several meetings have occurred to date,
including the Federation of San Rafael Neighborhoods and the League of Women Voters.
• One or more “focus groups” in which different stakeholder groups participate, such as developers/
brokers, supportive service providers, and tenants.
• A community workshop focused on housing sites and potential zoning modifications.
• Community empowerment workshops and/or capacity-building meetings, to be held in Spanish and
designed to provide the context for housing policy to neighborhood leaders, help the community
understand and access housing programs and services, and design policies and programs for the
future.
• Community conversations, including at least one session in Spanish. These would be facilitated
discussions of housing issues with the community.
• As resources and staff time allow, staff is also exploring the use of housing newsletters, affordable
housing tours, educational programs, and additional listening sessions to engage the community.
Some of these activities will occur after the housing element is drafted and may be implemented as
part of ongoing efforts to achieve more inclusive public engagement during the eight-year planning
period.
ANALYSIS
Evaluation of the Prior Element
As noted earlier, the Government Code requires that every housing element include an evaluation of
the community’s progress toward implementing its adopted housing policies and programs. This was
completed in December 2021 and discussed by the Housing Element Working Group at its January
2022 meeting. It is referenced as Attachment 1 to this Planning Commission Report, with a hyperlink to
the document.
The evaluation is formatted as a matrix. Column 1 indicates the goal, policy, or program number.
Column 2 indicates the goal, policy, or program text, exactly as it appears in the adopted Housing
Element. There are two goals, 19 policies, and 49 programs in the existing Element. Column 3
indicates staff’s evaluation of each goal, policy, or program, as well as information on the City’s
progress and activities related to the topic. This includes guidance as to whether the goal, policy, or
program should be retained, and where new goals, policies, and programs may be needed. A fourth
column was provided in the matrix for comments from the Working Group. Commissioners may also
provide their feedback.
Staff is recommending revisions to the goals and policies so they are more responsive to local housing
issues and do not repeat policies that appear elsewhere in the General Plan. The number of goals will
likely be expanded, with greater attention given to equity and fair housing, and the overarching goals of
housing production and preservation. In addition, many of the housing programs will need to be
REPORT TO PLANNING COMMISSION Page 7
Case No: GPA16-001 & P16-13
updated. New programs will be needed to comply with State laws, and to reflect the findings of the
Needs Assessment and the Constraints Analysis.
Needs Assessment
The Housing Needs Assessment is based on an analysis of data from the US Census, the Department
of Finance, ABAG/MTC, the Employment Development Department, the County of Marin, the City of
San Rafael, other government sources, and various private industry sources. It includes an assessment
of trends in population, age, race/ethnicity, language, household size, household composition, income,
employment, tenure, percent of income spent on housing, and characteristics of the housing stock. It
also addresses the special needs of seniors, persons with disabilities, unhoused residents, single
parents, large families, extremely low income residents, and others with special needs.
Some of the major findings of the Assessment are highlighted below:
• The city’s population was 61,271 based on the 2020 Census, an increase of 6.1% since 2010. San
Rafael represented 36% of Marin County’s population growth between 2010 and 2020.
• The median age increased from 40.2 in 2010 to 41.1 in 2020. The aging of the adult population
was counter-balanced by substantial growth in the youth population. The number of school age
children increased by nearly 1,892 over the decade. At the same time, the number of persons over
65 increased by 2,179. Population decreased in all other age cohorts. The greatest decrease was
in the number of young adults (25-44), which dropped by 1,815 residents.
• San Rafael has become more racially and ethnically diverse in the last 10 years. Census data
indicates that the population identifying as “White” declined from 70.6% in 2010 to 54.6% in 2020.
The percentage identifying as “Other” increased from 14.8% to 20.8% and the percentage
identifying as multi-racial increased from 5.1% to 12.4%. Much of this shift is due to changes in
Census methodology, resulting in Latino residents selecting options other than “White” in the 2020
Census. For the same reason, the percentage of residents identifying as “Native American”
increased from 1.2% to 3.7% over the decade.
• Roughly 2% of the city’s residents are African-American and 7% are Asian or Pacific Islander.
• Latino residents represented 30% of the city’s population in 2010 and 34.3% in 2020.
• About 25% of the city’s residents speak Spanish at home. Of this total, about half are bilingual and
speak English “very well” and about half speak English “not well” or “not at all.”
• Nearly half of the city’s children (5-18) are bilingual, speaking English “well” or “very well” while also
speaking a second language at home.
• Among the city’s foreign-born residents, 20% entered the US after 2010 and 29% entered between
2000 and 2009.
• Among those with limited English in San Rafael, 85% speak Spanish. Chinese is the second most
common non-English language spoken, followed by Vietnamese.
• Marin County as a whole gained 23,200 jobs between 2010 and 2019 and added just 1,300 housing
units—a ratio of 18:1.
• There are 31,200 San Rafael residents in the labor force and about 39,000 jobs located in the city.
The city is a regional employment center and is the location of 35% of all jobs in Marin County.
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• Only 27% of those working in San Rafael also live in San Rafael. About 30% commute in from
elsewhere in Marin, 21% commute in from other North Bay counties, and 14% commute in from the
East Bay.
• One in every three San Rafael households is a single person living alone.
• About 29% of the city’s households have children under 18 living at home.
• 50% of the city’s households are homeowners and 50% are renters. The percentage of renters has
been trending upward, from 46% in 2000 to 48% in 2010 and 50% today.
• Renters in San Rafael are more likely to be younger, non-White, and lower-income than the
population at large. The home ownership rate in the city is 61% for White, Non-Hispanic
households, 55% for Asian households, 14% for Latino households, and 13% percent for African-
American households. The gap is significantly larger in San Rafael than in the State as a whole.
• Among householders under 45 years old, only 24% are owners. Among householders over 54
years old, 66% are owners.
• San Rafael homeowners have a median annual income of $141,212. The city’s renters have a
median annual income of $61,595.
• Data from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) indicates that 47% of San
Rafael’s households meet the definition of “lower income,” as defined for Marin County. This
includes more than 4,000 households earning less than 30% of the County median income, more
than 3,000 households earning 30-50% of the County median income, and more than 3,500
households earning 50-80% of the County median income.
• The city added 575 households between 2010 and 2020. The 2020 Census indicates the city
added 491 housing units over the decade. City records indicate the actual increase was smaller.
• The mean number of persons per household in San Rafael was 2.55 in 2010. This compares to
2.44 in 2010, 2.42 in 2000, and 2.31 in 1990. Larger average household sizes are an indicator of
the growing number of children in the city, as well as households doubling up and a larger number
of adult children living at home.
• Households spending more than 30% of their incomes on housing are considered by the state to be
“cost-burdened.” In 2020, this applied to 32% of the city’s homeowners and 55% of its renters.
• Households in San Rafael were more likely to be cost-burdened than in the Bay Area as a whole.
• Among racial/ethnic groups, cost burdens were highest for Latino households, with 60%
experiencing a cost-burden. Census data indicates that nearly 40% of the city’s Latino households
spend more than half of their household incomes on housing costs.
• Overcrowding, which is defined by the Census as more than one person per room, has increased
since 2010. In 2010, 6.1% of all households in the city lived in housing units meeting this definition.
By 2020, this had increased to 10.9%. All of the increase over the decade was associated with
rental units—the percentage of overcrowded owner-occupied units actually declined between 2010
and 2020.
• Census data indicates that 50.9% of all Latino households in San Rafael experience overcrowded
conditions, compared to 1.3% among White, non-Latino households.
Additional findings of the Needs Assessment are pending and will be reported out at the Planning
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Commission meeting on February 15. This includes the evaluation of special housing needs and
additional information on the city’s housing stock and housing trends.
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Sites Inventory
The City has begun the task of compiling its list of housing opportunity sites. Although the RHNA
allocations were not finalized until 2021, the City anticipated its high assignment and structured its
recent General Plan Update to create capacity to meet its needs. General Plan 2040 identified sites for
4,050 additional housing units in the city.1 These sites include approved (but not yet built) development
projects, vacant land zoned for housing and mixed use development, and underutilized sites with
conditions that are favorable for housing construction.
Roughly half of this potential is associated with sites in the Downtown Precise Plan area. Other
opportunities include Northgate Mall, the Marin Square Shopping Center, the Elks Club, several
properties on Lincoln Avenue, a number of properties owned by the San Rafael City Schools, and
several office buildings with high vacancy rates. In addition, the City will consider changes to existing
zoning that make housing more feasible on sites that have not previously been identified. This could
include neighborhood commercial sites and office sites. The City will also be considering the potential
for accessory dwelling units to meet a portion of the RHNA.
At this time, the City does not anticipate major General Plan Amendments or rezoning actions to meet
the RHNA. However, limited changes may be considered in order to ensure that existing sites meet
HCD’s criteria for what constitutes an opportunity site. The State has adopted specific pre-requisites
for “carrying over” sites from previous Housing Elements and requires additional data and justification
for counting non-vacant sites, sites smaller than ½ acre, and sites that are larger than 10 acres. These
requirements could result in some of the City’s sites being deemed ineligible by HCD. New housing
sites could also be identified as a result of revisions to zoning regulations—for example, by increasing
the density allowed in certain commercial or office districts to the point where housing becomes more
economically viable.
Staff anticipates a future meeting with the Planning Commission to discuss the sites inventory and
potential amendments to the Zoning Code.
Schedule
As noted in earlier in this report, the Housing Element must be adopted by January 15, 2023. However,
preparation of this document requires an intermediate step in which HCD reviews a “working draft” prior
to the adoption hearings. This allows HCD to provide comments to the City that can be addressed
before adoption. Therefore, staff is working to develop a Working Draft Housing Element by the end of
May 2022. This document would be reviewed by the Planning Commission and City Council and
submitted to the State as a working draft by the end of June 2022.
HCD comments on the working draft would be received in September 2022. At this point, staff will
revise the document and work iteratively with HCD to make sure all objections are addressed. The
revised document will be brought back to the Planning Commission for a recommendation in December
2022. It will then be presented to the City Council for adoption in January 2023 and submitted to the
state prior to the deadline. The State has 60 days to issue a compliance determination.
In the event the City is found non-compliant, it will work with HCD to address any outstanding
objections as soon as possible and return to the Commission and Council for supplemental changes.
In previous cycles, this was rarely required---particularly because HCD reviews a Working Draft prior to
1 Excludes roughly 400 units outside the City limits but within the sphere of influence. The City’s housing plans do not cover the
unincorporated sphere (Santa Venetia, Marinwood, etc.).
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adoption. However, other regions of California on an earlier review cycle than the Bay Area are
experiencing exceptionally high rates of non-compliance. For example, the deadline for adoption of
Housing Elements in the Southern California Association of Governments region was October 15,
2021. There are 191 cities and six counties in that region (197 jurisdictions in total). As of February 4,
2022—nearly four months past the deadline—only two jurisdictions have been deemed compliant.
Another 49 have adopted their elements and are awaiting determination letters from HCD. Another 126
cities are still working with HCD on revisions to their Working Drafts. Another 14 cities have yet to
submit anything to HCD.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
As a General Plan amendment, the Housing Element update is subject to the California Environmental
Quality Act (CEQA). Because the City does not anticipate major changes to its Land Use Map, the
appropriate form of CEQA review for the Housing Element is an Addendum to the recently certified
General Plan EIR.
The Addendum would determine if the findings identified in the General Plan EIR would be changed by
the policies and programs in the new Housing Element. In the event the Housing Element proposes
substantial changes to the General Plan Map and/or allowable densities, a higher level of CEQA review
could be required. As with the General Plan EIR, environmental review will still be required for
individual projects proposed after the Element is adopted.
CORRESPONDENCE
No correspondence has been received on this Staff Report.
ATTACHMENTS
While there are no attachments to this Staff report, a hyperlink to the Evaluation of the 2015 Housing
Element is provided below.
Attachment 1: Evaluation of 2015-2023 Housing Element