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Home My WebLink About2023-31 Housing Element Group 2021-11-04 Agenda PacketA community conversation about housing November 4, 2021, 6:30 –8:00 PM Welcome! Bienvenidos! Chào mừng! Language Interpretation Interpretación de idiomas Ngon ngu phien dich Select the globe icon to choose the language you want to listen to for this meeting Seleccione el icono del globo del mundo para elegit el idioma que desea escuchar para esta reunion Nhan vao dau hieu qua dia cau de chon ngon ngu cho buoi hop Tonight’s Meeting Share your housing story with us! Email comments to: housing@cityofsanrafael.org AGENDA 1.Context 2.What’s a Housing Element? 3.Process 4.Questions/ Discussion Who’s Who? Housing Element Team Alicia Giudice, Community Development Director Jacob Noonan, Housing Manager Alexis Captanian, Housing Analyst Barry Miller, Consulting Project Manager Ground Rules Technology Happens Please be flexible and patient •You may type questions and comments in the “Chat” window throughout the presentation •During the Q&A period, please use the “Raise Hand” feature if you’d like to speak. We will enable your audio at that time. •Please be brief so that everyone has a chance to speak. •Respect other’s opinions–even when they don’t match your own. This is a listening session. •Remember—this is our first meeting! Many more opportunities for input will be provided •If you don’t say what you want today, please call or email! housing@cityofsanrafael.org Zoom Poll! QUESTION 1 Where do you live? 1.I am a homeowner in San Rafael 2.I am a renter in San Rafael 3.I live somewhere else in Marin County 4.None of the above Zoom Poll! QUESTION 2 Where do you work? 1.My regular place of work is in San Rafael 2.My regular place of work is outside of San Rafael 3.I am not currently working (retired, unemployed, etc.) 4.Other Zoom Poll! QUESTION 3 How long have you lived in San Rafael? 1.Less than a year 2.1-5 years 3.6-10 years 4.11-20 years 5.More than 20 years 6.I don’t live in San Rafael Zoom Poll! QUESTION 4 What is your age? 1.Under 18 2.18-34 3.35-49 4.50-64 5.65 or over Let’s test the Chat Please open the chat window-- Then type one or two words that describe living in San Rafael Why are we here today? The context for a conversation about housing Bay Area job growth has vastly outpaced housing growth Source: CA Regional Economic Analysis Project, 2021 State of California Dept of Finance, 2021 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 Alameda Contra Costa Marin Napa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Solano Sonoma Jobs Added Housing Permitted 8:1 6:1 18:1 40:1 10:1 14:1 8:1 4:1 34:1 Job and Housing Growth by County, 2010-2019 Ratio: Jobs Added: Housing Permitted It’s not just a “tech boom” Low-wage service industry jobs have been growing too The gap between job growth and housing growth is greatest for low- and moderate-income workers 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 Low Income Moderate Income Above Moderate Income Units Added (2007-2014)Jobs Added (2010-2015) Job Growth vs Housing Production in the Bay Area, by income Source: ABAG/ MTC Lack of supply means higher prices The median price of a San Rafael home has doubled in the last nine years Source: Zillow Home Value Index, 2021 $641,979 $748,684 $827,474 $881,230 $925,425 $988,607 $1,056,804 $1,086,629 $1,111,876 $1,275,146 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 MEDIAN HOME SALES PRICE IN SAN RAFAEL, 2012-2021 We’re not building for the “missing middle” Townhomes, condos, garden apartments, and 2-4 unit buildings are considered “missing middle” housing that are more affordable by design Image Credit: Opticos Design, Inc Missing middle housing in San Rafael sells and rents for less than single-family homes Our service workers can’t afford to live here anymore OCCUPATION AVERAGE ANNUAL INCOME INCOME CATEGORY % OF MONTHLY INCOME NEEDED TO AFFORD MEDIAN APT. RENT Fast Food Cook $34,000 Very Low 93% Retail worker $39,987 Very Low 80% Pre-school teacher $41,563 Very Low 76% Medical assistant $47,846 Very Low 66% Firefighter (entry)$62,918 Low 50% Police officer $76,623 Low 41% Elem. School Teacher $86,200 Low 37% Benefits of Increased Housing Choices •Young families can find a first-time home •Young adults can stay in the communities where they grew up •Seniors have more options for retirement •Workers can find homes near their jobs •Shorter commutes mean less greenhouse gas emissions (and congestion) •Our communities can be stronger and more balanced So, why isn’t the housing we need getting built? Limited Buildable Land Fiscal benefits of commercial/ industrial growth High construction and land costs Community resistance and opposition Project review, CEQA, and restrictive standards The State is stepping in SB 9: Lot splits and Duplexes in Single Family Zones SB 10: Upzoning near Transit AB 215: Housing Element Review/ Implementation SB 35: Streamlining of housing approval AB 744: Density Bonus AB 771: RHNA AB 1934: Mixed Use Development Bonus AB 686: Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing AB 2208: Residential Land Inventory AB 2162: Supportive Housing AB 2685: Housing Element Adoption AB 2372: Floor Area Ratio Bonus SB 229: Accessory Dwelling Units AB 2797: Density Bonus SB 166: Residential Density and Afforadbility AB 3194: Housing Acct Act: Approvals SB 540: Workforce Housing Opportunity Zone SB 828: RHNA AB 1505: Inclusionary Zoning SB 1227: Density Bonus AB 72: Housing Element Compliance AB 587: Separate Sale/ Conveyance of ADUs AB 678/ SB 167: Housing Accountability Act AB 1783 H02A: Worker Housing SB 330/ SB8: Housing Crisis Act AB 879: Housing Development Fees RECENT BILLS What’s a Housing Element? The Nuts and Bolts But first, a Zoom trivia question! QUESTION 5 How many residents did San Rafael gain between 2010 and 2020? 1.3,550 2.2,550 3.1,250 4.450 5.None, it lost population And a follow up… QUESTION 6 How many housing units did San Rafael gain between 2010 and 2020? 1.1,201 2.1,021 3.821 4.641 5.491 Housing Element Our guide to meeting local housing needs •Required part of the General Plan since 1969 •Must be updated every eight years •Only part of Plan subject to State certification •Content defined by State Government Code •All cities and towns must demonstrate they can accommodate their “fair share” of the region’s housing needs Contents of the Housing Element Needs Assessment •Demographics •Employment and Income •Housing Market Trends •Special Needs Previous Accomplishments •Progress toward implementing the prior Housing Element Constraints •Government •Market •Environmental •Infrastructure •Community Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing •Analysis •Site Distribution •Meaningful Actions Resources •Housing Sites (by income category) •Financial Housing Goals, Objectives, Policies, and Action Program STATE Identifies total number of units needed for each region of California COUNCILS OF GOVERNMENT Create a process to distribute the regional assignment to cities and counties. LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Must update their Housing Elements to show they can meet their assignments Regional Housing Needs Allocation How much housing do we have to plan for? (Hint: we don’t get to decide) The California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) determined that the Bay Area’s need for 2023-2031 is: 441,176 housing units Units are distributed based on: •Community size •Proximity to jobs •Availability of transit •Presence of “high opportunity areas” What does it mean for San Rafael?3,220 units San Rafael’s housing assignment for the 2023-2031 planning period is We’re not alone 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 San Rafael Unincorp Novato Mill Valley Corte Madera Larkspur San Anselmo Fairfax Sausalito Tiburon 2015-2023 2023-2031 220%1,829%404%571%907%642%686%703%816%719% RHNA in San Rafael compared to other Marin cities for 5th and 6th cycles Our assignment is broken down by income group 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 RHNA by Income Category in San Rafael ABOVE MODERATE INCOME MODERATE INCOME LOW INCOME VERY LOW INCOME More than $179,500 Income for family of four $146,350 -$179,500 $91,350 -$146,350 Less than $91,350 1,350 units 521 units 492 units 857 units 1,349 low/ very low-income units What do we mean by “affordable housing” ? Very low-income family of four: ($91,350/12) x 30% = $2,284/ month The US Housing and Urban Development Department standard is that housing costs (including utilities) should consume no more than 30% of monthly income If this household is spending more than that amount each month, it is considered “cost- burdened” Most rental housing in San Rafael is not affordable to very low-income households 2 bd 2 ba $3,610 1 bd 1 ba $2,295 2 bd 1 ba $2,475 Currently advertised rentals in San Rafael Household Income at which rent would be “affordable”* Presumes $200/mo for utilities $87,800 $99,800 $107,000 $152,400…and ownership (for sale) housing is not affordable to moderate, low, or very low- income households Studio 1 ba $1,995 Potential Housing Sites •Approved, unbuilt projects •Vacant land where housing is allowed •Underused commercial sites •Institutional uses and surplus public land •Accessory dwelling units The City identifies and zones the sites— it doesn’t build the housing The City is required to “Affirmatively Further Fair Housing” All cities and towns are required to “take meaningful actions, in addition to combatting discrimination, that overcome patterns of segregation and foster inclusive communities free from barriers that restrict access to opportunity.” Compliance Matters Timeline Adopted Element due to HCD in Jan 2023 SUMMER 2021 * Launch Project * Develop Engagement Plan FALL 2021 * Assess Needs * Identify Sites * Evaluate Constraints WINTER 2021-22 * Draft Policies/ Programs * Identify Zoning Changes SPRING 2022 * Prepare Draft Plan * Hold Initial Hearings * Submit Plan to HCD SUMMER 2022 * Environmental Review * Liaison with HCD FALL 2022 * Revise Plan * Adopt Plan Ways to participate •Sign up for notification emails •Visit the project website: www.sanrafaelhousing.org •Attend future meetings like these •Complete the Housing Survey (December 2021) •Attend Council and Commission study sessions and public hearings •Engage your HOA, neighborhood group, or civic organization •Email us Ways to participate Email us: housing@cityofsanrafael.org Tell us your housing story Your input can help: •Evaluate local housing needs •Identify potential locations for new housing •Develop programs for meeting our housing needs Email us: housing@cityofsanrafael.org A community conversation about housing November 4, 2021, 6:30 –8:00 PM Thank you! Gracias!