HomeMy WebLinkAboutCD San Rafael 2023-2031 Housing Element____________________________________________________________________________________
FOR CITY CLERK ONLY
Council Meeting: August 1, 2022
Disposition: Accepted report
Agenda Item No: 6.a
Meeting Date: August 1, 2022
SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL STAFF REPORT
Department: Community Development
Prepared by: Alicia Giudice, Director
Barry Miller, Consultant
City Manager Approval: ______________
TOPIC: SAN RAFAEL 2023-2031 HOUSING ELEMENT
SUBJECT: REPORT ON 2023-2031 HOUSING ELEMENT OPPORTUNITY SITES INVENTORY
RECOMMENDATION:
Accept the Informational Report on the 2023-2031 Housing Element Opportunity Sites Inventory.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The City is in the process of updating the Housing Element of the San Rafael General Plan. State law
requires that all 101 cities and nine counties in the San Francisco Bay Area adopt revised elements by
January 31, 2023 or shortly thereafter. The Housing Element covers an eight-year time period; the
current Element covers 2015-2023 and the new Element will cover 2023-2031. The Housing Element is
the City’s plan for conserving and maintaining its housing supply, removing regulatory barriers to housing
production, and creating housing opportunities for all residents.
The Housing Element includes several statutorily required components. One of these is an analysis and
inventory of specific housing opportunity sites, listed and mapped by Assessor Parcel Number.
Opportunity sites are properties that the City has identified as being appropriate and available to meet its
“fair share” of the region’s housing needs. San Rafael’s fair share assignment for 2023-2031 was
calculated by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) to be 3,220 housing units, including
1,387 units affordable to lower income households. Although the City itself does not develop housing,
the City must demonstrate that there are enough sites zoned to allow for construction of residential
development by private developers in the private and non-profit sectors. This staff report presents the
methodology for identifying housing sites as well as a summary of the data.
BACKGROUND:
Overview
Every city and county in California is required to adopt a housing element as part of its general plan. The
Housing Element is the only part of the general plan that must be submitted to the State for certification,
a process that is performed by the State Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD).
Cities without certified housing elements face adverse consequences, including limited access to State
funding and vulnerability to lawsuits and financial penalties. To avoid such consequences, HCD must
make a formal determination that each housing element complies with Government Code requirements,
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including demonstration that each city and county is accommodating its “fair share” of the region’s
housing needs and is “affirmatively furthering fair housing.”
San Rafael’s current Housing Element was adopted on January 5, 2015 and was certified by the State
on January 23, 2015. The planning period covered by that Housing Element was January 31, 2015
through January 31, 2023. The next Housing Element is due on January 31, 2023 and will cover the
period from January 31, 2023 through January 31, 2031.
The City initiated the update process in September 2021. A 13-member working group was appointed
by the City Council in November 2021 to advise on key policy choices. Over the last 10 months, the City
has completed background data collection and analysis tasks. The City is in the process of developing
housing policies and programs and is conducting additional community outreach to get feedback on
priorities and potential solutions to housing challenges.
Regional Housing Needs Allocation
The key driver of the Housing Element is the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA). The RHNA
process has been in effect since 1969, when the State legislature mandated that all communities do their
“fair share” to meet California’s housing needs. The RHNA process begins with the State determining
the eight-year housing need for each region of California. Each regional council of governments is given
the task of assigning the regional need to individual counties and cities. In the Bay Area, the Association
of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) was tasked with distributing a regional assignment of 441,176 housing
units to nine counties and 101 cities. This process occurred in 2020-2021.
San Rafael’s allocation for the 2023-2031 planning period is 3,220 units, which are broken down into four
income categories, as shown in Table 1 below. The City’s total allocation represents a 220 percent
increase over the 2015-2023 allocation of 1,007 units. Marin County, including the unincorporated areas
and the 11 cities, saw much steeper rates of increase. The overall countywide RHNA increased by 526
percent, from 2,298 units (2015-23) to 14,405 units (2023-31).
Table 1: 2023-2031 Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) for San Rafael
Very Low Low Moderate Above Moderate Total
Number of Units 857 492 521 1,350 3,220
Income Range
(Household of 4)
>$93,200 $93,200-
$149,100
$149,100-
$199,200
>$199,200
Source: ABAG, 2021. HCD Income Limits, 2022.
ANALYSIS:
General Requirements for the Sites Analysis
Housing site inventories must follow a format prescribed by HCD, with specific data provided for each
site. This includes Assessor Parcel Number, General Plan and zoning designation, size of the site,
existing use, and whether the property was counted in a prior Housing Element. Cities are also required
to evaluate the availability of utilities to serve each site, identify any environmental constraints, and
disclose whether the site is publicly or privately owned.
In 2004, AB 2348 established “default densities” for sites identified as providing opportunities for lower
income housing. AB 2348 established that in communities with more than 50,000 residents, sites may
only be considered acceptable for meeting the lower income RHNA if they are zoned at densities of at
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least 30 units per acre. Government Code 65583.2(h) further requires that each site designated for lower
income housing have the capacity for at least 16 units.
Jurisdictions are required to estimate the capacity of housing sites based on “realistic” capacity rather
than “theoretical capacity.” A one-acre site may be zoned for 20 units per acre, but that does not mean
20 units will be constructed. A smaller number of units may be built due to topographical and physical
features such as steep slopes and hillsides, creeks, narrow roads and woodland areas. Cities may refer
to recent projects to determine what is “realistic” in each zoning district.
AB 1397 established additional requirements for housing sites, particularly those sites identified as being
suitable to accommodate the lower income RHNA. These include:
• Limitations on identifying sites smaller than 0.5 acres and larger than 10 acres as suitable for lower
income housing. These limitations do not prohibit the use of such sites, but they require jurisdictions
to prove that they are viable based on past trends and actual projects.
• Special requirements for sites that are being carried forward from one housing element to the next.
These “carry-over” sites must be zoned so that certain types of housing development are permitted
“by right.” This includes projects where 20 percent or more of the units are affordable to lower income
households. By-right approval means that the City cannot require a Planned Development permit,
Conditional Use Permit, or other form of local discretionary review. The City can, however, apply
objective development and design standards that have been adopted and published prior to receiving
an application for development.
• If a Housing Element relies on non-vacant sites to accommodate 50 percent or more of its RHNA for
lower income households, then the jurisdiction is required to provide “substantial evidence” that each
non-vacant site will actually be available for housing during the planning period. A city cannot simply
list an occupied office building as a housing site and declare that because of low demand for office
space, it will redevelop. Examples of substantial evidence include expiring leases, dilapidated
structure conditions, and a letter from the owner indicating they are interested in residential
development. The City also needs to demonstrate a track record showing that similar properties
have recently been redeveloped with housing. It must also cite what steps are being taken to
incentivize or streamline housing on these sites, potentially including financial assistance and relief
from development standards.
Cities are required to identify sites by income category. For reporting purposes, low- and very low-income
sites may be added together and described as lower-income sites. Individual sites may also be assigned
to multiple income categories. For example, San Rafael has an inclusionary housing ordinance so it is
reasonable to assume that at least 10 percent of all larger sites will provide units for lower-income
households.
The designation of a site as a lower-income opportunity site does not mandate the development of lower-
income housing on that site, nor does it require the property owner to develop the site during the planning
period. The designation is merely an acknowledgment that the site meets certain metrics that are
conducive to the development of lower-income housing. Cities may approve market-rate housing on
such sites. Where commercial uses are permitted, cities and towns may also approve commercial uses
on such sites.
The caveat to the above paragraph is that cities and towns must be able to demonstrate that they have
adequate sites to meet their RHNAs at all times during the planning period. If a lower income site is
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developed for another purpose during the planning period, the City must show that it can still meet its
2023-2031 RHNA on the remaining sites. If the City is no longer able to meet its RHNA, it must identify
a developable “replacement” site to make up the lost capacity. In some cases, this could require rezoning.
This is referred to as the “no net loss” requirement under (SB 166, 2017).
SB 166 also required that cities and towns include a “buffer” of additional sites in case some of the sites
listed in this Housing Element become unavailable before 2031. As recommended by HCD, San Rafael’s
site inventory will include a buffer of 15 to 30 percent.
As required by HCD, the estimated yields for housing sites do not include the potential for additional units
made possible through State density bonuses. These bonuses can add up to 50 percent to the unit yields
for market-rate projects that include certain percentages of affordable units, and 80 percent to the unit
yields for 100% affordable projects.
Finally, the sites inventory is subject to the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing requirements of AB 686.
This requires that the lower income sites be geographically distributed in ways that foster integration and
create affordable housing opportunities throughout high resource areas. This aligns with the City’s
General Plan guiding principle to create a more equitable and inclusive city. The City has selected sites
that also support other General Plan guiding principles, such as preserving open space, reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, and promoting more compact development patterns.
Methodology
The methodology for identifying housing sites is described below:
1) Account for approved development projects. This includes projects that have been approved and are
either under construction or not yet built as of July 1, 2022. In San Rafael, this includes 781 housing
units. Spreadsheet “A” lists these projects. This number may increase by the time the Housing
Element is submitted.
2) Account for proposed development projects. In addition to projects that are fully entitled, there are a
significant number of projects in the pre-application or application stages. The largest of these
projects is Northgate Mall, which includes a first phase of 907 units. Other projects in this category
include the former Westamerica Bank at 1515 Fourth Street (191 units), and 420 Fourth Street (35
units), among others. In total, there were 10 “pre-pipeline” projects identified, representing another
1,309 housing units.
Taken together, categories 1 and 2 include 2,090 units, or 65% of the RHNA. More importantly, they
comprise 94% of the moderate and above moderate RHNA but only 24% of the lower income RHNA.
This suggests that much of the emphasis in the sites inventory should be on properties where lower
income units are possible, as well as ensuring the construction of inclusionary (Below Market Rate) units
in new projects.
3) Determine the likely number of Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) and Junior ADUs to be produced
over the next eight years by income category. Staff is projecting that San Rafael will produce 25
ADUs a year between 2023 and 2031, or a total of 200 units. Based on data from ABAG, it is
estimated that 35 percent of these ADUs (70 units) will be affordable to lower income households, 50
percent (100 units) will be affordable to moderate income households, and 15 percent (30 units) will
serve above moderate income households.
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4) Determine which sites in the existing 2015-2023 inventory can be carried forward. The 2015-2023
inventory identified 44 opportunity sites with the capacity for 2,183 housing units. Staff has
determined that 26 of these sites remain viable and has carried them forward to the 2023-2031 period.
Their estimated capacity is approximately 1,036 units, excluding Northgate Mall which is included in
methodology step (2). Eighteen of the sites in the 2015-2023 inventory were dropped from further
consideration, either because they have already been developed or are no longer considered viable
(see discussion later in this report).
5) Determine the potential number of units on vacant residentially zoned land. The City updated its
inventory of vacant residentially zoned land as part of General Plan 2040. This data was used to
estimate housing potential on vacant sites above and beyond what had been inventoried in the
previous Housing Element.
6) Calculate the potential on underutilized residential land. The potential for additional units on
previously developed residential sites was evaluated using indicators such as parcel size, property
dimensions, average slope, land to improvement value, ownership, and field observations. Examples
of such sites are single family homes in multi-family zoning districts, large lot single family homes in
areas zoned at suburban densities (2-8 units per acre), and multi-family properties with the potential
for additional units.
7) Calculate the potential in the Downtown San Rafael Precise Plan area. The Downtown Precise Plan
(adopted in August 2021) included an estimate of development potential within the 265-acre plan
area. The Plan identifies locations for approximately 2,200 housing units. Some of these sites are
already counted in the earlier steps or are unlikely to be available until after 2031. Approximately
1,500 units of capacity are identified Downtown, excluding already approved projects.
8) Calculate the potential on commercial and mixed use sites outside of Downtown. This required a
comprehensive analysis of all 1,051 properties in San Rafael with existing commercial land uses.
Parcels were analyzed based on factors such as improvement to land value ratio, parcel size and
ownership, slope and physical constraints, vacancy status, proximity to transit, and floor area ratio.
Properties already covered in Steps (1) through (4) were excluded.
9) Calculate the potential on public, institutional, and nonprofit-owned land. This includes housing
potential on City-owned property, County-owned property, and State-owned property. It also includes
properties owned by SMART, various utility districts, Dominican University, and the school districts
serving San Rafael.
Steps 6, 7, and 8 in the above methodology require the use of specific metrics to determine if a site is
viable. This data (parcel size, land value, improvement value, building area, building age) is generally
available through the Marin County Assessor’s Office parcel data base. Parcels were also field checked
to observe building condition, vacancy status, and whether the building was for sale or lease. In addition,
sites were selected to advance the State AFFH mandate and ensure that affordable housing opportunities
were being created in the city’s high-resource areas.
Calculating the Capacity of Each Site
As noted earlier, HCD requires that the site inventory identify the “realistic capacity” of each site rather
than just the “theoretical capacity” allowed by zoning. HCD encourages cities to be conservative when
estimating realistic capacity. However, in many cases the capacity estimates in our 2023-2031 inventory
are well below what could actually be built. This is particularly true in the Downtown area, since
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development is governed by a Form Based Code that regulates the height and mass of the building rather
than the number of housing units that can be built.
Estimates of Downtown’s development potential were made as part of the Precise Plan process that
occurred in 2018-2019. In general, Downtown sites subject to a 40 foot height limit (e.g,, roughly three
stories) were presumed to develop at 40 units per acre, sites subject to a 50 foot height limit were
presumed to develop at 65 units per acre, sites subject to a 60 foot height limit were presumed to develop
at 90 units per acre, and sites subject to a 70 foot height limit were presumed to develop at 120 units per
acre. However, recently approved Downtown projects exceed these numbers. As an example, the
Seagate site (703 3rd Street) was estimated by the 2015 Housing Element to have the capacity for 31
units. The project was ultimately approved for 138 units.
Outside of Downtown, the capacity estimates are generally 80 percent of what is allowed by zoning.
Again, the frequent use of density bonuses means that this estimate is low, at least for multi-family sites.
Summary of Identified Housing Capacity
The 2023-2031 sites inventory includes 183 sites. Some of the sites are comprised of multiple parcels
and others are a single parcel. In some cases, the parcels are under common ownership. In other cases,
there are multiple owners. The cumulative capacity of all sites is estimated to be 5,393 units. This
includes 1,763 units of lower income capacity, 700 units of moderate-income capacity, and 2,930 units
of above moderate-income capacity. There is a significant “buffer” of excess capacity above the 3,220-
unit RHNA. However, most of the buffer is the result of already-approved above moderate-income
housing. Removal of development constraints and additional financial resources will be critical to meeting
the lower-income targets.
Table 2 indicates the housing capacity by site type. Most of the City’s housing capacity is on sites that
are zoned for commercial or mixed use development.
Table 2: Summary of Housing Opportunity Sites by Income and Site Type
Spread-
sheet Category
Units by Income Category
Total
Units Lower Moderate
Above
Moderate
A Development Pipeline 198 3 580 781
B Low/Medium Density Residentially Zoned 3 88 160 251
C High Density Residentially Zoned 248 81 174 503
D Mixed Use Sites outside of Downtown 712 279 1,053 2,044
E Downtown Mixed Use sites 602 249 963 1,814
TOTAL 1,763 700 2,930 5,393
RHNA 1,349 521 1,349 3,220
Surplus Capacity +371 +179 +1,581 +2,173
Buffer 30% 34% 117% 67%
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Overview of the Spreadsheets
A series of 11 x 17 spreadsheets labeled A through E follows this staff report (see Attachment 1). The
spreadsheets correspond to the categories listed in Table 1 and provide State-mandated data for each
housing type. The spreadsheets are summarized as follows:
• A “summary” spreadsheet (page 1) presents the same data that is shown in Table 2 in this staff
report.
• Spreadsheet “A” lists projects in the development pipeline. The projects shown have all been
approved but are not yet occupied as of July 1, 2022 (the start of the RHNA projection period).
There are 14 projects listed, with a total of 781 units.
• Spreadsheet “B” lists development opportunities on sites zoned for low and medium density
residential development. There are 66 sites identified, with a total capacity of 251 units. Most of
this capacity is presumed to be “above moderate” income housing due to the associated densities
and construction costs.
• Spreadsheet “C” lists development opportunities on sites zoned for high density housing. There
are 20 sites listed, with the capacity for 503 units. Only 3 of the sites are “carry overs” from the
2015 Housing Element—the other 17 were not previously listed. About half of the housing
capacity identified on this spreadsheet is for lower income housing. Spreadsheet C also includes
several sites with Public/Quasi-Public zoning.
• Spreadsheets “D” and “E” list development opportunities on sites zoned for commercial or mixed
use development. Spreadsheet “D” includes sites outside of Downtown San Rafael. Spreadsheet
“E” includes sites in the Downtown Precise Plan area.
o Spreadsheet “D” includes 30 sites with the capacity for 2,044 units. This includes 1,053
units of above moderate-income housing, two-thirds of which is associated with Northgate
Mall. The spreadsheet also includes 712 units of lower income capacity and 279 units of
moderate-income capacity. Only seven of the 30 sites are “carry overs” from the 2015
Housing Element—the other 23 were not previously listed.
o Spreadsheet “E” includes 53 sites with the capacity for 1,814 units. This includes 963
units of above moderate-income housing, 249 units of moderate-income housing, and 602
units of lower-income housing. Most of the sites listed were specifically called out in the
Downtown Precise Plan as housing opportunities. A few were not. Only seven of the sites
were counted in the 2015 Element—the other 46 were not previously listed.
Table 3 below indicates the information for each site provided in the spreadsheets.
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Table 3: Key to the Housing Site Spreadsheets
Column Title Description
1 ID# A unique alpha-numeric ID has been assigned to each site. The letter corresponds
to the spreadsheet on which the site appears.
2 APN Assessor Parcel Number. Some sites have multiple APNs and some sites occupy
only a portion of a given APN.
3 Address/ Location Either a street address or a narrative description of the location of each property
4 Acres Total (gross) acres of the housing opportunity site
5 GP Des Existing General Plan Designation
6 Zoning Existing Zoning Designation
7 Existing Use A narrative description of the current use of each site
8 Theoretical
Capacity
The land area for each site multiplied by the maximum zoning density, inclusive of
any proposed increases in allowable density. For already approved projects and
for projects with pending applications, the actual number of approved or proposed
units is used. Sites in the Downtown area have no density requirements, so
theoretical capacity is more difficult to estimate.
9 Realistic Capacity (1) For already approved projects, the actual number of approved units is used
(2) For sites with development constraints such as steep slopes and limited
access, the estimate is generally 60-80 percent of what is allowed by zoning.
(3) For mixed use and commercially zoned sites, the estimate is generally 80
percent of theoretical capacity.
(4) In the Downtown Precise Plan area, the estimates reflect figures that were
developed in 2018-19 and used in the EIR for that project.
The estimate of a site’s “realistic capacity” does not preclude a site from
developing with more units than are shown in this column. This is intended as a
conservative estimate based on guidance provided by HCD.
10 Pub/Private Indicates whether the site is publicly or privately owned. PR = private. PU = public
11 Constraints Indicates development constraints on each site, with an emphasis on
environmental constraints. Typical constraints include steep slopes, sea level rise,
fire hazards, historic resources, noise, and air quality.
12 Infrastructure Indicates the improvements that would be required for site development,
including road access and internal streets and utilities. Sites with utilities available
in the street right-of-way abutting the site are considered to have infrastructure.
Sites without adjacent water, sewer, or dry utilities are noted as needing
infrastructure.
13
A, B, C
Income Category
(Low, Mod, Above
Mod)
Indicates whether the site is expected to serve above moderate, moderate, or
lower (low + very low) income households. The designation of a site as lower
income does not mandate that it be developed with lower income housing.
However, if it is developed with another use, the City must find that it still has
capacity to meet its lower income assignment in the remaining sites (or identify
additional opportunity sites to make up the deficit).
14 Counted before? Indicates if the site was counted in the 2015-2023 Housing Element site inventory
15 Comments Provides additional remarks and comments about each site, including background
information and context for why it is listed as a housing opportunity. Red font is
used where a follow-up zoning action is required.
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Sites Removed from the 2015 Inventory
The sites that were removed from the 2015 Inventory include those that were developed during the last
eight years, and others that no longer appear viable. The removed sites include:
• Marin Square Shopping Center. The site had been estimated as having the potential for 200 units.
It has been removed from the inventory as it was recently sold and refurbished for retail use. Housing
is still permitted on the site.
• Northgate Three (Michael’s, CVS, Black Bear Diner). The site had been estimated as having the
potential for 203 units. The owners indicate they are focusing on redevelopment of the Mall rather
than this perimeter shopping center, and do not intend to redevelop Northgate Three during the next
eight years. Housing is still permitted on the site.
• 550, 670, and 820 Las Gallinas. These are three office buildings on Las Gallinas that were estimated
to have the potential for 84 units. One of these office buildings was acquired by Kaiser, another was
acquired by a law firm, and the third is fully occupied.
• Former Chrysler/Dodge dealership at 1075 E. Francisco. This property is under construction with a
new hotel. It had previously been assumed as a potential site for 63 units.
Relationship of the Sites Inventory to AFFH
The City has long been committed to furthering fair housing, having adopted its first inclusionary housing
ordinance in 1991, well in advance of other cities in the County. Over the past few years, the City Council
has been looking for ways to remove barriers to housing of all types and at all income levels throughout
the community. With this 6th cycle housing element, the State Department of Housing and Community
Development has required cities and counties to be more intentional and transparent about how they
intend on furthering fair housing.
Since 2021, the County of Marin has been leading a collaborative effort to coordinate the Housing
Elements of the County and its 11 cities. This includes the services of a consulting team retained by the
County to provide supplemental services specifically related to the State’s Affirmatively Furthering Fair
Housing (AFFH) mandate. The sites inventory is subject to this mandate. More specifically, the sites
inventory must be analyzed to ensure that it helps overcome patterns of segregation and contributes to
a more inclusive, economically diverse community.
This is both a quantitative and qualitative analysis. The County’s consultant—Veronica Tam
Associates—is performing the quantitative component and has completed a preliminary screen of San
Rafael’s 183 sites. This included overlaying a map of the housing sites on other maps showing patterns
of segregation, poor housing conditions, and access to resources (good schools, jobs, services, etc.)1.
The intent is to ensure that the City is not concentrating its lower-income housing sites in “low resource”
areas, while locating all of its above moderate-income sites in “high resource” areas.
The initial analysis indicated the City is generally consistent with State requirements but some sites may
require further justification. In other words, the City has limited the identification of lower-income housing
sites to the already impacted Canal census tracts, while creating opportunities for lower-income housing
in upper income/ high-resource census tracts in neighborhoods like Northgate and Downtown.
1 These maps will be posted to the www.sanrafaelhousing.org once they are finalized. They will also appear in an appendix
to the Housing Element.
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In the qualitative part of this analysis, the City will need to explain instances where its sites may not
appear to support AFFH goals on the surface. For example, the City has provided at least a few
opportunities for lower income housing in the Canal area since that area has an urgent need for safe,
affordable family housing. In addition, placing only market-rate housing in the Canal area could be
harmful to the community, as it could cause displacement and drive up the cost of existing housing.
Conversely, there are “high resource” areas in San Rafael where lower income housing may be infeasible
due to the lack of services and high fire danger. The City believes its inventory will be found consistent
with the AFFH mandate, but will need to provide supplemental information in its analysis to explain why.
Maps
A set of five maps, plus a “key” map are included with this staff report (Attachment 2). The maps show
the location of the housing sites listed in Attachment 1. The city has been broken into five sub-areas to
communicate this information more legibly. Map 1 shows North San Rafael. Map 2 shows the middle
part of the City (between Downtown and the Civic Center). Map 3 shows the San Pedro Peninsula. Map
4 shows Southern and Southeastern San Rafael. Map 5 shows Downtown San Rafael.
The colors on the map correspond to the General Plan designations of each site. City staff is presently
working to improve the legibility of the maps, add street names and key landmarks, and show other
attributes of each site (such as which sites are “pipeline” projects, which sites are lower income sites,
and so on). These will be made available and posted to the City’s website as they are developed.
Zoning Changes
Because the 2023-2031 Housing Element immediately followed adoption of the San Rafael General Plan,
the City is able to accommodate its RHNA without any zoning changes.
Schedule
As noted in earlier in this report, the Housing Element must be adopted by January 31, 2023. The State
has provided a 120-day grace period (ending May 30, 2023) for cities that require additional time in order
to respond to HCD comments. The City of San Rafael anticipates that it may use a portion of the grace
period, depending on the HCD comments on its initial draft.
State law requires that each city and county submit a “working draft” of its Element to HCD prior to
adopting the document. This allows HCD to provide comments that can be addressed before adoption,
thereby increasing the likelihood an adopted element will be found in compliance. Staff is currently
anticipating release of the Working Draft in September 2022.
State law requires circulation of the Working Draft for public comment for at least 30 days. At the end of
the 30 days, the document will be revised as needed and submitted to the State for review. The State
then has up to 90 days to review the draft, meaning that comments will be received in January 2023.
Depending on the extent of the State’s comments and when they are received, the City will either adopt
the Housing Element in January 2023 or make revisions and adopt it during the grace period. Once the
Housing Element is adopted, it must be resubmitted to HCD for certification. The State has 60 days to
issue a compliance determination.
It is worth noting that other regions of California on an earlier review cycle than the Bay Area are
experiencing exceptionally high rates of non-compliance. For example, the deadline for adoption of
Housing Elements in the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) region was October
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15, 2021. There are 191 cities and six counties in that region (197 jurisdictions in total). As of July 15,
2022—nine months past the deadline—only 19 jurisdictions have been deemed compliant. There are 93
SCAG jurisdictions that have adopted their elements and been found non-compliant, and another 73
jurisdictions that have not adopted their elements yet, as they continue to revise them based on HCD
comments. There are also 12 cities in the SCAG region that have either not submitted anything to the
State or are still waiting for their first response from HCD.
The City Council is encouraged to review this document, just published by ABAG. for a summary of the
principal objections HCD has had with the 6th Cycle Southern California elements.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW:
As a General Plan amendment, the Housing Element update is subject to the California Environmental
Quality Act (CEQA). Because the City does not anticipate major changes to its Land Use Map, the
appropriate form of CEQA review for the Housing Element is an Addendum to the recently certified
General Plan EIR.
The Addendum would determine if the findings identified in the General Plan EIR would be changed by
the policies and programs in the new Housing Element. In the event the Housing Element proposes
substantial changes to the General Plan Map, a higher level of CEQA review could be required. As with
the General Plan EIR, environmental review will still be required for individual projects proposed after the
Element is adopted.
COMMUNITY OUTREACH:
The August 1 City Council public hearing was advertised in the Marin Independent Journal and publicized
with a postcard notice to stakeholders, agencies, and special interest groups.
The City has been circulating the sites inventory since June 2022, both for public information and to solicit
comments. The inventory was presented to the Housing Element Working Group for discussion on June
30 and was the focus of a Community Workshop on July 14. It was presented to the Planning Commission
for discussion on July 26. While some of the public feedback has related to specific sites, most comments
have focused on higher-level issues such as the need for affordable housing, the ability to accurately
identify sites, and the likelihood of the sites identified being realistically available before 2031.
FISCAL IMPACT:
The Housing Element is a policy document and does not have a direct fiscal impact on the city. Future
programs developed as a result of HE2023-2031 adoption could have fiscal impacts by identifying
programs requiring funding. Other HE2023-2031 programs may have positive fiscal impacts by
identifying new revenue sources or improving the City’s eligibility for grants and other funds. Conversely,
the absence of a certified Housing Element would have adverse fiscal impacts, as the City would become
ineligible for numerous state grants and funds.
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
Accept the Informational Report on the 2023-2031 Housing Element Opportunity Sites Inventory.
ATTACHMENTS:
Attachment 1: Housing Opportunity Site List (please note, this is formatted at 11 x 17)
Attachment 2: Housing Opportunity Site Map (set of five maps, plus key map)
Attachment 1 – Housing Opportunity Site List
(please note, this is formatted at 11 x 17)
https://www.cityofsanrafael.org/documents/draft-housing-opportunity-
sites-list-june-2022/
Attachment 2 – Housing Opportunity Site Map (set
of five maps, plus key map)
https://www.cityofsanrafael.org/documents/draft-housing-opportunity-
sites-maps-june-2022/
