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HomeMy WebLinkAboutFD Marin County Multi-Jursidictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan____________________________________________________________________________________ FOR CITY CLERK ONLY Council Meeting: October 7, 2024 Disposition: Resolution 15346 Agenda Item No: 2.e Meeting Date: October 7, 2024 SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT Department: Fire, Office of Emergency Services Prepared by: Quinn Gardner Deputy Director of Emergency Management City Manager Approval: ______________ TOPIC: MARIN COUNTY MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL LOCAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN SUBJECT: RESOLUTION ADOPTING THE 2024 MARIN COUNTY MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL LOCAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN AND THE CITY OF SAN RAFAEL ANNEX. RECOMMENDATION: Adopt a resolution adopting the 2024 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (MJLHMP) and the City of San Rafael Annex. BACKGROUND: What is a Local Hazard Mitigation Plan? A Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) is a living document that assesses regional risks and vulnerabilities and identifies and prioritizes mitigation projects, describing updated strategies for sustaining and building on current mitigation activities to ensure the future safety of lives, preservation of property and protection of the environment during times of disaster. Mitigation planning also improves the ability to recover from a disaster. An annex to an LHMP is a document that provides additional information specific to a jurisdiction, such as a city or special district, which participates in the plan. Annexes supplement the information in LHMP, which includes federally required elements that apply to the entire planning area. This City of San Rafael Annex (Attachment 3) provides additional information specific to the City, with a focus on providing additional details on the hazard risk assessment and mitigation strategy (i.e., mitigation actions) for the community. State and Federal Regulations for LHMPs The Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA) of 2000 (Public Law 106-390) requires local governments to develop and adopt pre-disaster LHMPs to minimize property damage and the risk to public health and safety that might otherwise result from the effects of a natural or human-made disaster. SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 2 The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires the plan to be updated every five years to maintain federal hazard mitigation grant eligibility. In addition, California Assembly Bill No. 2140 (AB 2140, 2006) allows cities to be considered for additional state cost-share on eligible public assistance projects by adopting their current, FEMA-approved local hazard mitigation plans (LHMPs) into the Safety Element of their General Plan. This adoption, along with other requirements, makes the City eligible to be considered for up to an additional 6.25% local share to be funded by the state-eligible public assistance projects. The City of San Rafael’s Planning Efforts In February 2016, FEMA approved the City’s application for a grant to develop a Local Hazard Mitigation Plan for San Rafael. Previously, the City did not have a FEMA-approved, locally adopted Hazard Mitigation Plan and, thus, was not eligible to apply for any FEMA funding to support City Hazard Mitigation projects. After more than a year of meetings, staff analysis, research, and working with a specialized consultant, on November 17, 2017, the City Council adopted San Rafael’s first Local Hazard Mitigation Plan. In 2018, the Marin County Sheriff’s Office, which then included the County Office of Emergency Services and County Department of Public Works, spearheaded the development of a countywide Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan. The plan included jurisdiction-specific mitigations and countywide mitigation measures that applied to all of Marin County’s twelve (12) cities, towns, and unincorporated areas. This effort was intended to create communitywide resiliency, as large-scale disasters rarely adhere to jurisdictional boundaries, especially in cities and towns in Marin that share natural features, such as waterways and hillsides. San Rafael adopted the Marin County Multi- Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan in July 2019. In August 2021, the San Rafael City Council adopted the General Plan 2040, which included a Safety and Resilience Element. The City’s current Safety and Resilience Element of the General Plan includes language and goals relating to hazard mitigation and specifically references the 2019 MJLHMP. Responding to federal mandates in the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (Public Law 106-390), the 2024 MJLHMP updates the previous plan adopted in 2019. ANALYSIS: Mitigation planning allows for improved emergency management and disaster response for all communities we serve. These include targeted assistance to those with access and functional needs, migrant populations, ethnic populations/language accessibility, essential workers, the elderly, and more. Outreach was conducted with efforts to reach various demographics. This section describes the planning process, organization, and review of the 2024 MJLHMP. The 2024 MJLHMP Planning Process In Marin County, jurisdictions collaborate on LHMP updates in a multi-jurisdictional planning effort, reflecting that hazard risks extend beyond jurisdiction borders. Multi-jurisdictional planning efforts have many benefits, including promoting compliance with state and federal disaster mitigation requirements, maintaining eligibility for FEMA mitigation grants, improving communication between jurisdictions, and avoiding duplication of efforts by pooling resources and sharing costs. The 2024 MJLHMP updates the 2019 MJLHMP. The planning area for the MJLHMP encompasses the entire geographic area of Marin County. The preparation of the 2024 MJLHMP was led by the Marin County Office of Emergency Services, with participation from the Marin County Operational Area and the sixteen (16) cities, towns, and special districts in Marin County. Much like what occurred in 2018, this recent planning effort was intended to advance community-wide resiliency. SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 3 To ensure eligibility for FEMA and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) grants, the MJLHMP development process included the following activities: 1. Identification of potential planning partners. Partners who chose to participate submitted Letters of Intent committing resources to the development effort; 2. Identification and assessment of the risks of natural hazards; 3. Development of actions to mitigate the risks and a plan to implement the actions over the next five years; 4. Public involvement in the development and review of the MJLHMP; and 5. Review and approval of the MJLHMP by Cal OES and FEMA. As part of the update process, City staff from various departments reviewed previous hazard mitigation plans, pending projects, and newly identified needs. In collaboration with the County of Marin and their consultant, City staff provided input to ensure the plan updates meet the City’s needs for mitigating natural and human-caused disasters. The Organization of the 2024 MJLHMP The MJLHMP is organized with a main document (Volume 1) addressing countywide hazards and mitigation actions. Volume 1 (Attachment 2) is accompanied by Volume 2, which contains annexes (i.e., appendices) for each participating jurisdiction. Participating jurisdictions are known as “planning partners” in the document. The City of San Rafael Community Profile is contained in Volume 2 of the MJLHMP and is provided as Attachment 3 to this report. Although Volume 1 addresses hazard mitigation on a countywide basis, and Volume 2 considers these same topics for each city, town, and special district, both documents are organized as follows: • An introduction with an overview of the jurisdiction and a description of the planning process. • A systematic hazard identification and risk assessment of natural and human-caused hazards such as flooding, drought, wildfire, landslides, severe weather, terrorism, cyber threats, pandemics, and the impact of climate change. • Mitigation strategies and actions to reduce injury, property damage, and community disruption. • A process for adopting, monitoring, and evaluating the plan. FEMA and Cal OES Review Jurisdictions must submit their Local Hazard Mitigation Plans to FEMA for approval to be eligible for FEMA funding from the Pre-Disaster Mitigation and Hazard Mitigation Grant programs. In July 2024, FEMA and Cal OES approved the City of San Rafael Annex to the 2024 MJLHMP (Attachment 4). This plan's expiration date will be January 31, 2029. After local adoption, the signed resolution is returned to FEMA for final approval. Final plans are made publicly available via the County Office of Emergency Management website and City sites as needed. COMMUNITY OUTREACH: Community outreach was incorporated into the planning and update process. This included a website and public survey, a public comment period, social media campaigns, flyers, and two Town Hall Meetings in San Rafael that were broadcast via Zoom and included translation services. The Town Hall meetings were advertised via press releases and digital communication. Following a presentation, the meetings concluded with question and answer sessions. No members of the public joined in person, and none provided public comment via Zoom. The plan includes full details about the outreach efforts. SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 4 ENVIRONMENTAL DETERMINATION: The adoption of the 2024 MJLHMP is not a project under California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines Section 15378(a) because it has no potential to result in either a direct physical change in the environment or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment. Instead, the 2024 MJLHMP is a planning study that identifies hazard risk and outlines potential future mitigation actions the County and planning partners may take to reduce hazard risk depending on funding and staffing availability, including projects that are already planned or in progress. Accordingly, even if the adoption of the 2024 MJLHMP were a project, it would be exempt from CEQA under CEQA Guidelines Section 15262 as a planning studies for possible future actions which has no legally binding effect on later activities. Since there would be no potential for a significant effect on the environment, the adoption of the 2024 MJLHMP also qualifies for the common sense exemption as described in CEQA Guidelines Section 15061(b)(3). FISCAL IMPACT: Adopting the 2024 MJLHMP and the City of San Rafael Annex has no fiscal impact. However, it maintains the City's eligibility for FEMA mitigation grant funding. OPTIONS: The City Council has the following options to consider on this matter: 1. Adopt the provided resolution 2. Adopt resolution with modifications. 3. Direct staff to return with more information. 4. Take no action. RECOMMENDED ACTION: Adopt a resolution adopting the 2024 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (MJLHMP) and the City of San Rafael Annex. ATTACHMENTS: 1. Resolution 2. Volume 1 of the MJLHMP: Planning Area-Wide Elements 3. Volume 2 of the MJLHMP (Excerpt): City of San Rafael Annex 4. Marin County FEMA Approval Letter, July 2024 RESOLUTION NO. 15346 RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SAN RAFAEL ADOPTING THE 2024 MARIN COUNTY MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL LOCAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN AND THE CITY OF SAN RAFAEL ANNEX WHEREAS, natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, and wildfires, pose a significant threat to the residents and visitors of Marin County and San Rafael; and WHEREAS, disasters start and end at the local level, and it is the inherent responsibility of government to lead hazard mitigation and the reduction of risk and vulnerability to hazards; and WHEREAS, an adopted Local Hazard Mitigation Plan is required as a condition of future funding for mitigation projects under multiple FEMA pre-and post-disaster mitigation grant programs; and WHEREAS, the City adopted a Local Hazard Mitigation Plan in 2017 through Resolution No. 14418; and WHEREAS, the San Rafael 2040 General Plan includes a Safety and Resilience Element which expresses the City’s commitment to maintaining an LHMP and minimizing San Rafael’s vulnerabilities and, in accordance with AB 2140, acknowledges the importance of coordinating the most recent LHMP and Safety Element by incorporating the 2017 LHMP and any future amendments to the LHMP by reference, as allowed by California Government Code Section 65302(g); and WHEREAS, the Marin County 2024 Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (MJHMP) amends the 2017 LHMP by fully updating and replacing it; and WHEREAS, the Marin County 2024 Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (MJHMP) complies with all requirements set forth under Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA) 2000 and includes information also relevant to the Safety Element. The MJHMP presents environmental hazard analysis, describes important transportation and utility infrastructure at risk from environmental hazards, describes emergency evacuation systems, and mitigation actions to protect Marin County populations and infrastructure from environmental hazards; and WHEREAS, the adoption of the 2024 MJLHMP is not a project under California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines Section 15378(a) because it has no potential to result in either a direct physical change in the environment or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment; and even if the adoption of the 2024 MJLHMP were a project, it would be exempt from CEQA under CEQA Guidelines Section 15262 as a planning studies for possible future actions which has no legally binding effect on later activities, and also under the common sense exemption as described in CEQA Guidelines Section 16061(b)(3) because there would be no potential for a significant effect on the environment; and WHEREAS, adoption by the governing body for the City of San Rafael, demonstrates the jurisdiction’s commitment to fulfilling the mitigation goals and objectives outlined in this Local Hazard Mitigation Plan; and WHEREAS, adoption of the plan authorizes responsible agencies to carry out their responsibilities under the plan. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the City of San Rafael hereby adopts the 2024 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan and the City of San Rafael Annex and adopts the updated 2024 MJLHMP by reference into the Safety and Resilience Element of the San Rafael 2040 General Plan. I, Lindsay Lara, Clerk of the City of San Rafael, hereby certify foregoing resolution was duly and regularly introduced and adopted at a regular meeting on the City Council of said City held on Monday, the 7th day of October 2024, by the following vote to wit: AYES: COUNCILMEMBERS: Hill, Kertz & Mayor Kate NOES: COUNCILMEMBERS: None ABSENT: COUNCILMEMBERS: Bushey & Llorens Gulati ___ LINDSAY LARA, City Clerk COUNTY OF MARI Cover Photo: The image provided by the Marin County Office of Emergency Management, illustrates the precarious balance of mitigating potential wildfire fuels to ensure a safe evacuation corridor while preserving the exquisite natural beauty unique to Marin County. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Marin County Operational Area (OA) and the sixteen (16) jurisdictions and special districts within the Marin County OA prepared this Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (MJHMP) update to the 2018 Marin County MJHMP to guide County, City, and Special District managers in protecting the people and property within the County from the effects of natural disasters and hazard events. These planned actions will make Marin County and its residents less vulnerable to future hazard events, demonstrates the communities’ commitment to reducing risks from hazards, and serves as a tool to help decision makers direct mitigation activities and resources. HAZARD MITIGATION Hazard Mitigation is defined as “any sustained action taken to eliminate or reduce long-term risk to human life, property, and the environment posed by a hazard”. Hazard mitigation planning is the process of making any sustained plan or course of action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to people and property from both natural hazards and their effects. The planning process includes establishing goals and recommendations for mitigation strategies. Hazard mitigation may occur during any phase of a threat, emergency, or disaster. Mitigation can and should take place during the preparedness (before), response (during), and recovery (after) phases. The process of hazard mitigation involves evaluating the hazard’s impact and identification and implementation of actions to minimize the impact. PURPOSE OF THE HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN Information in this plan will be used to help guide and coordinate mitigation activities and decisions for local land use policy in the future. Proactive mitigation planning will help reduce the cost of disaster response and recovery to communities and their residents by protecting critical community facilities, reducing liability exposure, and minimizing overall community impacts and disruptions. The Marin County OA planning area has been affected by hazards in the past and is thus committed to reducing future impacts from hazard events and becoming eligible for mitigation-related federal funding. MITIGATION PLAN UPDATE This 2023 MJHMP is a comprehensive update of the 2018 Marin County Local Hazard Mitigation Plan, which included the unincorporated county, eleven (11) jurisdictions and the North Marin Water District. FEMA approved the 2018 plan on December 27, 2018, and it will expire on December 27, 2023. The current update meets federal requirements for updating hazard mitigation plans on a five-year cycle. It represents the fifth iteration of the Marin County hazard mitigation plan. Fifty-eight planning partners participated in this update, as listed in Tables 2.2 and 2.4. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management was the lead County Department coordinating this MJHMP update. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan ii appointed new leadership in 2023 and the Director, Steven Torrance, made the update to this plan a priority. The planning area and participating jurisdictions and special districts were defined to consist of the unincorporated county, eleven (11) jurisdictions and five (5) special districts within the geographical boundary of Marin County. All partners to this plan have jurisdictional authority within this planning area. The jurisdictions participating in the 2023 Marin County MJHMP were represented by: Table 2.1: 2023 MJHMP Participating Jurisdictions Jurisdiction Representative Title 1 Marin County Hannah Tarling Emergency Management Coordinator 2 Marin County Chris Reilly OEM Project Manager 3 City of Belvedere Irene Borba Director of Planning 4 City of Larkspur Loren Umbertis Public Works Director 5 City of Mill Valley Patrick Kelly Director of Planning and Building 6 City of Novato Dave Jeffries Consultant/JPSC 7 City of San Rafael Quinn Gardner Deputy Emergency Services Coord. 8 City of Sausalito Kevin McGowan Director of Public Works 9 Town of Corte Madera and Sanitary District #2 RJ Suokko Director of Public Works 10 Town of Fairfax Loren Umbertis Public Works Director 11 Town of Ross Richard Simonitch Public Works Director 12 Town of San Anselmo Sean Condry Public Works & Building Director 13 Town of Tiburon Sam Bonifacio Assistant Planner 14 Bolinas Community Public Utility District Jennifer Blackman General Manager 15 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Dale McDonald Administrative Services Manager 16 North Marin Water District Eric Miller Asst. General Manager 17 Southern Marin Fire District Marshall Nau Fire Marshall/South Marin Fire Dist. PARTICIPATING JURISDICTION HAZARD ASSESSMENT Each Marin County OA MJHMP participating jurisdiction and special district reviewed and approved the Top Hazards identified by the Planning Team. Each participating jurisdiction and organization then completed a more complex assessment tool to further develop their hazard assessment and prioritization. The planning process used the available FEMA tools to evaluate all the possible threats faced. The primary tool selected was the Hazard Assessment and Prioritization Tool. This matrix allowed the participating jurisdiction or organization to assess their own level of vulnerability and mitigation capability. Each participating Jurisdiction and organization assessed the top hazards for: • Probability and frequency • Impact to property, resources, and humans • Mitigation capacity l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan iii The results of these participating jurisdiction and organization hazard assessment and prioritization are illustrated in the following tables. Table 3.4: Marin County Hazard Risk Assessment Hazard Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude / Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Dam Failure Unlikely Negligible Extreme Low Medium 9.00 Debris Flow, Erosion, Landslide, Post- Fire Debris Flow Occasional Extensive Severe Medium Medium 13.00 Drought Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High High 16.00 Earthquake Highly Likely Extensive Extreme None High 15.00 Flooding Highly Likely Limited Severe High Medium 14.00 Land Subsidence (Sinkhole) Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 Levee Failure Unlikely Negligible Moderate Medium High 9.00 Sea Level Rise Highly Likely Limited Extreme High High 16.00 Severe Weather – Extreme Heat Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 Severe Weather – Wind, Tornado Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 Tsunami Highly Likely Limited Extreme Medium High 15.00 Wildfire Highly Likely Significant Severe High High 16.00 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ I I I I I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan iv Risk Level Risk Numerical Score High Risk 12 - 16 Serious Risk 8 - 11 Moderate Risk 4 - 7 Low Risk 1 - 3 MITIGATION GOALS The information developed from the risk assessment was used as the primary basis for developing mitigation goals and objectives. Mitigation goals are defined as general guidelines explaining what each jurisdiction wants to achieve in terms of hazard and loss prevention. Hazard Risk Prioritization Mitigation Goals & Objectives Mitigation Project Identification Mitigation Project Implementation 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 10 9 9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 We i g h t e d R a n k P e r c e n t a g e V a l u e Hazard Types Hazards by Rank 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan v Goal 1: Minimize risk and vulnerability of the community to the impacts of natural hazards and protect lives and reduce damages and losses to property, economy, and environment in Marin County. • Minimize economic and resource impacts and promote long -term viability and sustainability of resources throughout Marin County. • Minimize impact to both existing and future development. • Provide protection for public health. • Prevent and reduce wildfire risk and related losses. Goal 2: Provide protection for critical facilities, infrastructure, utilities, and services from hazard impacts. • Incorporate defensible space and reduce hazard vulnerability. • Develop redundancies in utilities and services. • Enhance resilience through enhanced construction. Goal 3: Improve public awareness, education, and preparedness for hazards that threaten our communities. • Enhance public outreach and participation in the Alert Marin Emergency Notification System. • Enhance public outreach, education, and preparedness program to include all hazards of concern. • Increase public knowledge about the risk and vulnerability to identified hazards and their recommended responses to disaster events, including evacuation and sheltering options. • Provide planning and coordination for "At-Risk" populations. • Provide planning and coordination for companion animals, livestock, and other animal populations. • Increase community awareness and participation in hazard mitigation projects and activities. Goal 4: Increase communities' capabilities to be prepared for, respond to, and recover from a disaster event. • Improve interagency (local, state, federal) emergency coordination, planning, training, and communication to ensure effective community preparedness, response and recovery. • Enhance collaboration and coordination of disaster-related plans, exercises, and training with local, state, and federal agencies, neighboring communities, private partners, and volunteers. • Enhance the use of shared resources/Develop a strong mutual aid support system. • Create and maintain a fully functional, interoperable radio and communication system with all regional public safety partners. Goal 5: Maintain FEMA Eligibility/Position the communities for grant funding. • Review hazard events and ongoing hazard mitigation projects annually. • Assess the need to pursue or adjust hazard mitigation projects after significant hazard events. Goal 6: Reduce exposure to High Hazard Dams that pose an unacceptable risk to the public. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan vi • Improve alert and warning systems to provide residents downstream of a High Hazard Dam to receive timely warning to evacuation when threatened by potential or imminent dam failure. • Enhance overall community preparedness to respond and evacuate a potential or imminent dam failure. • Increase public awareness of the risk posed by High Hazard Dams and the potential for relocation of housing outside a possible inundation zone. • Prioritize High Hazard Dam Mitigation projects and programs. MITIGATION STRATEGY The mitigation strategies and activities designed to reduce or eliminate losses resulting from natural hazards are the centerpiece of the mitigation planning process. Through the mitigation actions, participating jurisdictions will become more resilient to disasters. The 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP was revised to reflect progress in local mitigation efforts. Mitigation projects were selected for each hazard and for Marin County, the eleven (11) jurisdictions and the five (5) special districts based on the hazard risk assessment. The projects are supported by the mitigation goals and objectives and are ranked using the following criteria: approximate cost, timeframe of completion, whether the project requires Board of Supervisors regulatory action, and an assumption as to whether or not the project would be subject to CEQA or NEPA requirements. Funding sources are identified for all projects. All projects consider new, future, and existing development. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Marin County Office of Emergency Management and Preparative Consulting would like to thank those collaborators and partners who participated in the planning and development of this document. The official Marin County Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Steering Committee provided the oversight and dedication to this project that was required and without their commitment, this project would not be possible. As with any working plan, this document represents planning strategies and guidance as understood as of the date of this plan’s release. This plan identifies natural hazards and risks and identifies the hazard mitigation strategy to reduce vulnerability and make the communities of the Marin County Operational Area more disaster resistant and sustainable. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2 This page is intentionally blank. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 3 LETTER OF PROMULGATION January 2024 To: Officials and Employees of Marin County The preservation of life and property is an inherent responsibility of all levels of government. Whereas disasters may occur in devastating form at any time, Marin County must provide safeguards which will save lives and minimize property damage through mitigation planning and training. Sound mitigation planning carried out by knowledgeable and well-trained personnel can and will minimize losses. The Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan identifies the hazard risks and vulnerabilities for the Marin County Operational Area and identifies mitigation projects and actions to help reduce those risks. It provides for the integration and coordination of planning efforts of Marin County, the Cities of Belvedere, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, San Rafael and Sausalito; the Towns of Corte Madera, Fairfax, Ross, San Anselmo and Tiburon; the Bolinas Community Public Utility District, the Central Marin Fire Department, the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District, the North Marin Water District, the Sanitary District Number 2, and the Southern Marin Fire Department. The content of this plan is based upon guidance approved and provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. The intent of the Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan is to provide direction on how to mitigate against the threat of disaster through effective mitigation strategies and initiatives. Once adopted, this plan will be reviewed and tested periodically and revised as necessary to meet changing conditions and requirements. The Marin County Board of Supervisors gives its full support to this Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan and urges all public employees and individuals to mitigate against the threat of disaster before they occur. _________________________________ Stephanie Moulton-Peters President, Board of Supervisors Marin County l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 4 This page is intentionally blank. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. i Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................1 Letter Of Promulgation .............................................................................................................3 Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................5 SECTION 1.0: Introduction .......................................................................................................9 1.1 Hazard Mitigation Principles .................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Purpose ..................................................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Scope ...................................................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Legal Authorities ..................................................................................................................... 10 1.5 History and Overview ............................................................................................................. 11 1.5.1 Demographics.................................................................................................................. 25 1.5.2 Critical Facilities and Infrastructure ................................................................................ 31 1.5.3 Natural, Historical, and Cultural Resources .................................................................. 33 1.5.4 National Risk Index and Social Vulnerability................................................................. 55 1.5.5 Social Vulnerability and Risk in Marin County .............................................................. 60 1.5.6 Economics ........................................................................................................................... 66 1.6 Existing Authorities, Policies, Programs, and Resources ................................................... 67 1.7 New Items for the 2023 MJHMP ........................................................................................... 68 1.7.1 Revision of the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment ....................................... 70 1.7.2 Climate Change ............................................................................................................... 70 1.7.3 Progress on Local Mitigation Efforts .............................................................................. 70 1.8 Plan Organization and Structure ........................................................................................... 70 SECTION 2.0: Planning Process ............................................................................................72 2.1 Planning Approach ................................................................................................................. 73 2.2 Grant Funding and Consultant Selection ............................................................................. 74 2.3 Establish a Planning Partnership .......................................................................................... 74 2.4 Define the Planning Area and Participating Jurisdictions ................................................... 75 2.5 Steering Committee ............................................................................................................... 76 2.5.1 Steering Committee Planning Process .......................................................................... 78 2.5.2 Steering Committee Tasks ............................................................................................. 79 2.5.3 Steering Committee Future Tasks ................................................................................. 80 2.6 Coordination with stakeholders and agencies ..................................................................... 80 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 6 2.7 Review and Incorporation of Existing Plans ......................................................................... 87 2.8 Public Engagement ................................................................................................................ 92 2.8.1 Website............................................................................................................................... 94 2.8.2 Public Meetings ................................................................................................................. 94 2.8.3 Social media ...................................................................................................................... 96 2.8.4 Press Releases.................................................................................................................. 96 2.8.5 Survey ................................................................................................................................ 97 2.8.6 Public Comment on the Plan ............................................................................................ 98 SECTION 3.0: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment ................................................ 100 3.1 Hazard Identification ............................................................................................................ 100 3.1.1 Disaster Declaration History ......................................................................................... 102 3.1.2 Omission of Hazards ..................................................................................................... 104 3.2 Hazard Analysis .................................................................................................................... 106 3.2.1 Climate Change ............................................................................................................. 111 3.2.2 Participating Jurisdiction Hazard Assessment ............................................................ 119 3.3 Hazard Risk Assessment..................................................................................................... 120 3.3.1 Dam Failure ................................................................................................................... 120 3.3.2 Debris Flow .................................................................................................................... 154 3.3.3 Drought ........................................................................................................................... 176 3.3.4 Earthquake ..................................................................................................................... 185 3.3.5 Flooding.......................................................................................................................... 196 3.3.6 Land Subsidence ........................................................................................................... 241 3.3.7 Levee Failure ................................................................................................................. 247 3.3.8 Sea Level Rise............................................................................................................... 265 3.3.9 Severe Weather – Extreme Heat ................................................................................. 276 3.3.10 Severe Weather – High Wind/Tornado ..................................................................... 281 3.3.11 Tsunami ....................................................................................................................... 290 3.3.12 Wildfire ......................................................................................................................... 322 3.4 Additional Hazards Profiled ................................................................................................. 372 3.4.1 Air Pollution ................................................................................................................ 373 3.4.2 Critical Infrastructure/ Utility Disruption .................................................................... 376 3.4.3 Cyber Threats ............................................................................................................ 378 3.4.4 Oil Spills ...................................................................................................................... 383 3.4.5 Pandemic .................................................................................................................... 386 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 7 3.4.6 Transportation Systems ............................................................................................ 392 SECTION 4.0: Mitigation Strategy ........................................................................................ 399 4.1 Changes in Development .................................................................................................... 399 4.2 Changes in Priorities ............................................................................................................ 401 4.2.1 Vulnerability and Risk Reduction ................................................................................. 401 4.3 Capability Assessment ......................................................................................................... 402 4.3.1 Regulatory Capabilities ................................................................................................. 402 4.3.2 Administrative and Technical Capabilities................................................................... 408 4.3.3 Fiscal Capabilities ......................................................................................................... 412 4.3.4 Outreach and Partnerships Capabilities ...................................................................... 414 4.4 Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program..................................................... 415 4.4.1 Substantially Improved Or Substantially Damaged Properties ................................ 421 4.5 Mitigation Goals .................................................................................................................... 423 4.6 Hazard Mitigation Actions .................................................................................................. 425 4.6.1 Progress in Local Mitigation Efforts ............................................................................. 425 4.6.2 Status of Previous Mitigation Actions .......................................................................... 426 4.6.3 New Mitigation Actions.................................................................................................. 430 4.7 Plan Integration .................................................................................................................... 463 4.8 Future Development Trends ............................................................................................... 464 SECTION 5.0: Plan Review, Evaluation, and Implementation ............................................ 468 5.1 Plan Adoption ....................................................................................................................... 468 5.2 Plan Monitoring And Public Engagement ........................................................................... 468 5.3 Plan Evaluation ..................................................................................................................... 469 5.4 Plan Update .......................................................................................................................... 470 Figures and Tables Index ..................................................................................................... 471 Acronyms .............................................................................................................................. 478 Appendix A: Adoption Letters.............................................................................................. 483 Appendix B: Documentation of the Planning Process ....................................................... 513 Appendix C: Public Outreach Survey .................................................................................. 531 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 8 This page is intentionally blank. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 9 SECTION 1.0: INTRODUCTION Each year in the United States, natural disasters take the lives of hundreds of people and injure thousands more. Nationwide, taxpayers pay billions of dollars annually to help communities, organizations, businesses, and individuals recover from disasters. These monies only partially reflect the true cost of disasters, because additional expenses to insurance companies and nongovernmental organizations are not reimbursed by tax dollars. Many natural disasters are predictable, and much of the damage caused by these events can be alleviated or even eliminated. Hazard mitigation is defined by FEMA as “any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to human life and property from a hazard event.” The results of a three-year, congressionally mandated independent study to assess future savings from mitigation activities provides evidence that mitigation activities are highly cost-effective. On average, each dollar spent on mitigation saves society an average of six dollars in avoided future losses in addition to saving lives and preventing injuries. This plan was prepared pursuant to the requirements of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 so that the Marin County Operational Area (OA) would be eligible for the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Pre-Disaster Mitigation and Hazard Mitigation Grant programs as well as to lower flood insurance premiums (in jurisdictions that participate in the National Flood Insurance Program’s Community Rating System). 1.1 HAZARD MITIGATION PRINCIPLES Hazard mitigation is any sustained action taken to eliminate or reduce long-term risk to human life, property, and the environment posed by a hazard. Hazard mitigation planning is the process of making any sustained plan or course of action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to people and property from both natural hazards and their effects. The planning process includes establishing goals and recommendations for mitigation strategies. Hazard mitigation may occur during any phase of a threat, emergency, or disaster. Mitigation can and should take place during the preparedness (before), response (during), and recovery (after) phases. The process of hazard mitigation involves evaluating the hazard’s impact and identification and implementation of actions to minimize the impact. 1.2 PURPOSE Marin County and its participating jurisdictions prepared this Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (MJHMP) update to the 2018 Marin County MJHMP in order to make the Marin County OA and its residents less vulnerable to future hazard events. This plan demonstrates the communities’ commitment to reducing risks from hazards and serves as a tool to help decision makers direct mitigation activities and resources. This plan was also developed to make the Marin County OA eligible for certain federal disaster assistance, specifically, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP), l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 10 Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program, and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) program. 1.3 SCOPE The Marin County OA MJHMP is a multi-jurisdictional plan that geographically covers the Marin County OA, which encompasses the area within Marin County’s jurisdictional boundaries. This area includes the County and its unincorporated communities, the Cities of Belvedere, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, San Rafael and Sausalito; the Towns of Corte Madera, Fairfax, Ross, San Anselmo and Tiburon; the Bolinas Community Public Utility District, the Central Marin Fire Department, the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District, the North Marin Water District, the Sanitary District Number 2, and the Southern Marin Fire Department. This MJHMP was prepared pursuant to the requirements of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (Public Law 106-390) and the implementing regulations set forth by the Interim Final Rule published in the Federal Register on February 26, 2002, (44 CFR §201.6) and finalized on October 31, 2007. The 2007 amendments also incorporate mitigation planning requirements of the Flood Mitigation Assistance program authorized by the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968. While the Disaster Mitigation Act emphasized the need for mitigation plans and more coordinated mitigation planning and implementation efforts, the regulations established the requirements that local hazard mitigation plans must meet in order for a local jurisdiction to be eligible for certain federal disaster assistance and hazard mitigation funding under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Act (Public Law 93-288). Information in this plan will be used to help guide and coordinate mitigation activities and decisions for local land use policy in the future. Proactive mitigation planning will help reduce the cost of disaster response and recovery to communities and their residents by protecting critical community facilities, reducing liability exposure, and minimizing overall community impacts and disruptions. The Marin County OA planning area has been affected by hazards in the past and is thus committed to reducing future impacts from hazard events and becoming eligible for mitigation-related federal funding. 1.4 LEGAL AUTHORITIES Federal, state and local regulations and policies form the legal framework to implement Marin County’s, and its participating jurisdictions’, hazard mitigation goals and projects. Federal Laws • “The Federal Civil Defense Act of 1950” • Public Law 96-342 “The Improved Civil Defense Act of 1980” • Public Law 91-606 “Disaster Relief Act" • Public Law 93-288 “The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief Act of 1974” • Section 322, Mitigation Planning of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act • Public Law 106-390 enacted by Section 104 of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA) • Interim Final Rule for DMA 2002 as published in the February 26,2002, 44 CFR Part 201 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 11 State Laws & Plans California Government Code, Section 3100, Title 1, Division 4, Chapter 4 Defines public employees as disaster service workers. Disaster service workers are subject to such disaster service activities as assigned to them by their superiors or by law. The term "public employees" includes all persons employed by the state or any county, city, city and county, state agency or public district, excluding aliens legally employed. The law applies when: • A local emergency has been proclaimed. • A state of emergency has been proclaimed. • A federal disaster declaration has been made. This Section provides the basic authorities for conducting emergency operations following a proclamation of Local Emergency, State of Emergency, or State of War Emergency, by the Governor and/or appropriate local authorities, consistent with the provisions of this Act. The California Emergency Plan - Revised Promulgated by the Governor, and published in accordance with the Emergency Services Act, the Plan provides overall statewide authorities and responsibilities, and describes the functions and operations of government at all levels during extraordinary emergencies, including wartime. Section 8568 of the Act states, in part, that "...the State Emergency Plan shall be in effect in each political subdivision of the state, and the governing body of each political subdivision shall take such action as may be necessary to carry out the provisions thereof." Local emergency plans are, therefore, considered to be extensions of the California Emergency Plan. California Civil Code, Chapter 9, Section 1799.102 This section of the California Civil Code provides for "Good Samaritan Liability" for those providing emergency care at the scene of an emergency. Specifically: "No person, who, in good faith and not for compensation, renders emergency care at the scene of an emergency, shall be liable for any civil damages resulting from any act or omission. The scene of an emergency shall not include emergency departments and other places where medical care is usually offered." State Hazard Mitigation Plan (SHMP) - 2018 The State Hazard Mitigation Plan (SHMP) identifies policy, establishes goals, and stipulates actions associated with the implementation of enhanced hazard mitigation strategies for California. The SHMP is foundational for local government hazard mitigation planning efforts, and provides inter-organizational guidance and direction based upon established state agency actions and principles. Operational Area Governmental Authorities & Plans - Local Codes and Ordinances Local government codes, ordinances, and executive policies are identified in Section 4.3. 1.5 HISTORY AND OVERVIEW The first people to inhabit the area of Marin County thousands of years ago are the indigenous Coast Miwok. The origin of the name “Marin” is unclear, but it is thought to be either named after the Chief of the Licatiut, a Coast Miwok tribe, or after Bahía de Nuestra Señora del Rosario la Marinera Bay between San Pedro Point and San Quentin Point. European colonization of Marin County began in the 1500’s when Sir Francis Drake landed in the area of modern-day Drake’s Bay in 1579. The Spanish eventually made claims to California and established their first settlement in Marin County in 1817. The Settlement of Marin County was incorporated in 1850 as one of the original 27 counties of California. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12 Marin County is located on northern California’s Pacific coast and is bordered by Sonoma County to the north; the Pacific Ocean to the west; San Pablo Bay and San Francisco Bay to the east, and the City and County of San Francisco to the south. Marin County spans 828 square miles, of which 520 square miles is land and 308 square miles is water. This footprint makes Marin County among the four smallest counties in the State. Within the boundaries of Marin County are 11 municipalities, 20 Census Designated Places, and 8 recognized unincorporated communities. The county seat is the City of San Rafael. County Government Marin County is a general law county, whereby the Board of Supervisors is elected by district and principal officers of the County are regulated by statutes that assign their duties. County departments are responsible for providing a wide array of services to the unincorporated areas of Marin County, as well as within municipalities. Departments are managed by elected officials or appointed directors who are responsible for administering local programs and services, in accordance with both applicable state law and county regulations. Many county departments are further sub-divided into divisions, offices, and programs, which provide specific services to the public. The following is a list of Marin County departments: • Administrator • Agriculture, Weights and Measures • Assessor • Board of Supervisors • Child Support Services • County Administrator • County Counsel • Community Development • County Clerk • Cultural Services • District Attorney • Finance • Elections • Enhanced Court Collections • Farm Advisor • Health and Human Services • Housing • Human Resources • Information Services and Technology • Library • Parks • Probation • Public Administrator • Public Defender • Public Works • Recorder • Retirement • Registrar of Voters • Sheriff’s Office • Superior Court l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 13 Figure 1.1: Map of Marin County Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / Full County Cities and Towns OlnCIOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT J I I \ } I I I Point Reyes Nalional Seashore \ Marin Cities / Towns (shading) CITY OF BE LVEDERE CITY OF LARKSPUR CITY OF MI LL VALLEY CITY OF NOVATO CITY OF SA N RAFAEL \ 101 ---.... ~-- CITY OF SAUSALITO TOWN OF CORTE MADERA TOWN OF FAIR FAX TOW N OF ROSS TOWN OF SAN ANSELMO TOWN OF TIBURON 12 116 121 J7 San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area 0 Fairfax, Ross l!.arkspur Corte Madera MIii Vall ev Mt. Tamalpais State Park Mill Valley 2 .5 Golden Gate Nalional Recreation Area Sausalito ,--.,,..-~r- -s------1 1 o Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn emai l: OEM _GIS @Mar inCounty.org Date Printed : 08/08/23 / / / ( I ! _,7' /j•n N County of Marin, california State Parks, Esr i, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph , FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Lan d Management, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 14 Municipalities Marin County has six cities and five towns. City of Belvedere The City of Belvedere was initially developed by the Belvedere Land Company who built homes and building sites, a water system, roads, and other amenities in the area. The city was officially incorporated on December 21st, 1896 and it’s first post office was opened in 1897. Early Belvedere had a grocery store, telephone exchange, beauty shop, laundry, boatyard, plumber's shop, coal, wood and ice yard, blacksmith's shop, gas station and a jail. After World War 2, The Belvedere Land Company dredged a lagoon in San Francisco Bay and created additional living areas for Belvedere residents. The city has a total area of 2.4 square miles. It is predominantly hilly and is surrounded on three sides by San Francisco Bay. The City’s population lives in three distinct neighborhoods: Belvedere Island, Belvedere Lagoon and Corinthian Island. Many City residences are considered historically significant. Belvedere had an estimated population of 2,126 in 2020, with 1,060 housing units in the City. The median income for a household in the City was $246,500 and the per capita income for the City was $153,697. Approximately 4.4 percent of families and 5.8 percent of the population were below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau). Town of Corte Madera The Town of Corte Madera is named after Corte Madera del Presidio, an 1834 Mexican land grant of the area to Irish immigrant John Reed that also established several communities in Marin County. Spanish for “cut wood”, Corte Madera provided redwood and oak timber for the growth of early San Francisco, including much of the construction at the Presidio. As the timber disappeared, Corte Madera became a farming and ranching community. Corte Madera continued to grow with the formation of the North Pacific Coast Railroad Company in 1872, and a railroad station was constructed by 1875 with freight and commuter service. Development of the town’s harbor allowed for further trade of goods. The town grew around the railroad station with the development of a town square and several neighborhoods. The Adams’ Hotel and Tavern was the Town’s first commercial business when built in 1898 and it served as the Town’s first post office. The town was officially incorporated on June 10th, 1916. Further growth of the town occurred during World War II, when the Marinship Corporation built a shipyard in Sausalito and attracted thousands of ship workers to the area. The town currently has a total area of 3.2 square miles and is situated just south of the South Quentin Peninsula on San Francisco Bay. The terrain consists of hills and marshland where numerous creeks empty into San Francisco Bay. The Town of Corte Madera had an estimated population of 10,222 in 2020, with 4,174 housing units in the Town. The Town has a total area of 4.406 square miles. The median income for a household in the Town was $183,661 and the per capita income for the Town was $95,257. Approximately 2.1 percent of families and 4.9 percent of the population were below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau). Town of Fairfax The Town of Fairfax is named after Lord Charles Snowden Fairfax, whose estate in the area served as the site of the last political dual in California in 1861. Charles and Adele Pastori l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 15 purchased the Fairfax property and built a hotel and restaurant in the 1890’s, attracting visitors who could take the ferry from San Francisco and travel on the newly constructed North Pacific Coast Railroad Company rail line. The first post office was opened in 1910. Fairfax continued to grow with the development of an incline railroad to Manor Hill in 1913, and numerous permanent residences were established. The town was officially incorporated on March 2nd, 1931. Fairfax continued to grow as a “center of grooviness” throughout the 1960’s and 1970’s. The town currently has a total area of 2.2 square miles and lies inland in the valleys of San Anselmo Creek and its tributary Fairfax Creek. Fairfax is generally hilly and is bordered to the south by the Mount Tamalpais protected watershed. The Town of Fairfax had an estimated population of 7,441 in 2020, with 3,479 housing units in the Town. The Town has a total area of 2.204 square miles. The median income for a household in the Town is $111,290 and the per capita income for the Town is $59,011. Approximately 0.3 percent of families and 10.1 percent of the population is below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau). City of Larkspur The City of Larkspur was first developed through an 1834 Mexican land grant to Irish immigrant John Reed that established several communities in Marin County. Much of the area of Larkspur was logged in the 1840’s to supply lumber to San Francisco and the building of Presidio. Two sawmills were built to float logs down Corte Madera Creek to San Francisco Bay. Further growth was spurred by the formation of the North Pacific Coast Railroad Company railroad, with a railroad station being built in Larkspur. C.W. Wright and his American Land and Trust Company purchased much of present-day Larkspur in 1896, subdividing the land and piping in water. Wright’s wife Georgina named the town Larkspur after she mistakenly identified the native lupine as Larkspur. C.W. Wright laid out the town in 1887 and the first post office opened in 1891. Larkspur quickly became a weekend destination for visitors from San Francisco, and a hotel, bathhouse, grocery store, and several retail shops were built. The City of Larkspur was officially incorporated on March 1st, 1908. Larkspur's Downtown Historic District, known also as Old Downtown Larkspur, was listed on the National Register of Historic Places in 1982. The city currently has a total area of 3.2 square miles and lies just inland of San Francisco Bay with hilly terrain on the southwest side. The City of Larkspur had an estimated population of 13,064 in 2020, with 6,459 housing units in the City. The City has a total area of 3.243 square miles. The median income for a household in the City was $135,260 and the per capita income for the City was $94,909. Approximately 1.5 percent of families and 7.7 percent of the population were below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau). City of Mill Valley The City of Mill Valley was first developed through two land grants: an 1834 Mexican land grant to Irish immigrant John Reed that established several communities in Marin County and an 1838 Mexican land grant to English immigrant William Richardson. A sawmill was built by Richardson in the 1830’s to supply lumber to San Francisco and the building of Presidio, and a dairy ranch was established by Samuel Reading Throckmorton in 1854. Mill Valley continued to l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 16 grow with the development of the North Pacific Coast Railroad Company and the building of a resort hotel by Dr. John Cushing in the 1880’s. The Tamalpais Land and Water Company took over possession of the land owned by Throckmorton and in 1889 built roads, pedestrian paths and step-systems and the Cascade Dam and Reservoir for water supply. They also set aside land for churches, schools and parks. New residents built houses and the City of Mill Valley was officially incorporated on September 1st, 1900. The post office opened under the name "Eastland" but was changed to "Mill Valley" in 1904. Mill Valley was almost lost to a wildfire in 1929, when 117 homes were destroyed, but a change in winds saved the city. Further growth of the town occurred during World War II, when the Marinship Corporation built a shipyard in Sausalito and attracted thousands of ship workers to the area. Since the mid-1960s, growth in the city has generally remained constant. The city currently has a total area of 4.9 square miles and is located between Mt. Tamalpais on the west and the Golden Gate National Recreational Area on the south. Mill Valley is generally hilly and wooded and is surrounded by hundreds of acres of state, federal, and county park lands. In addition, there are many municipally maintained open-space reserves, parks, and coastal habitats. The Arroyo Corte Madera del Presidio and Cascade Creek flow from the slopes of Mt. Tamalpais through Mill Valley to the San Francisco Bay. The City of Mill Valley had an estimated population of 14,231 in 2020, with 6,502 housing units in the City. The City has a total area of 4.847 square miles. The median income for a household in the City was $179,529 and the per capita income for the City was $110,356. Approximately 2.4 percent of families and 4.5 percent of the population were below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau). City of Novato The City of Novato is name after Rancho Novato, the first rancho established in the area through a Mexican land grant to Fernando Feliz in 1830. Novato was developed through four additional land grants that established ranchos in the area: Rancho Corte Madera de Novato to John Martin in 1839; Rancho San Jose to Ignacio Pacheco in 1840; Rancho Olómpali to Camilo Ynitia in 1843; and Rancho Nicasio to Pablo de la Guerra and John B.R. Cooper in 1844. Early pioneers Joseph Sweetser and Francis De Long planted orchards and vineyards in the area in the 1850’s, and the original town grew around Novato Creek. A post office opened in 1856 and a school was built in 1859. With the development of the North Pacific Coast Railroad Company, the center of the town shifted around the newly built railroad station in 1879. Many farmers in Novato lost their land in the Great Depression, but growth accelerated with the building of the 101 freeway. The City of Novato was officially incorporated on January 20, 1960. The city has an area of 28 square miles and includes ten Marin County Open Space District preserves: Mount Burdell, Rush Creek, Little Mountain, Verissimo Hills, Indian Tree, Deer Island, Indian Valley, Ignacio Valley, Loma Verde, and Pacheco Valle. Novato is located on San Francisco Bay and has extensive farmland and wetlands with hilly terrain on the southwest side. The City of Novato had an estimated population of 53,225 in 2020, with 21,271 housing units in the City. The City has a total area of 27.440 square miles. The median income for a household in the City was $107,975, and the per capita income for the City was $57,297. Approximately 2.5 percent of families and 7.9 percent of the population were below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau). l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 17 Town of Ross The Town of Ross was established as part of a Mexican land grant to Juan B.R. Cooper in 1840 known as Ranch Punta de Quentin Canada de San Anselmo. Ross was named in honor of James Ross, who purchased the land from Cooper in 1857. The first post office opened in 1887, and the Town of Ross was officially incorporated on August 21, 1908. The town continued to grow through the 1900’s as residents moved into its shaded canyons and gently sloping hills. The town has an area of 1.6 square miles and lies inland of San Francisco Bay. Most of Ross is forested with greater open space on its east and west sides. The Town of Ross had an estimated population of 2,338 in 2020, with 880 housing units in the Town. The Town has a total area of 1.556 square miles. The median income for a household in the Town is $250,000 and the per capita income for the Town is $128,126. Approximately 0 percent of families and 3.5 percent of the population is below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau/ 2021 American Community Survey). Town of San Anselmo The Town of San Anselmo received its name came from the Punta de Quintin land grant, which marked the valley as the Canada del Anselmo, or Valley of Anselm. The original area of San Anselmo consisted mostly of cattle ranches until the North Pacific Railroad Company formed and built a railroad line through the area in 1874, bringing in visitors from San Francisco. The town began to grow with the building of the San Francisco Theological Seminary in 1892 and the first post office opened in the same year. Summer homes were built in the area by San Francisco residents, and many of these homes became permanent after the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake. The Town of San Anselmo was officially incorporated on April 9th, 1907. Growth in the town continued until leveling off in the 1960’s. On March 12th, 1974, San Anselmo officially became a town. The town has a total area of 2.7 square miles and lies inland almost completely within the Ross Valley Watershed that flows into San Francisco Bay. The Town of San Anselmo had an estimated population of 12,830 in 2020, with 5,518 housing units in the Town. The Town has a total area of 2.677 square miles. The median income for a household in the Town is $153,381 and the per capita income for the Town is $ $87,951. Approximately 0 percent of families and 3.9 percent of the population is below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau). A large part of southern and western San Anselmo is built on a natural floodplain. San Anselmo's historic raised railroad bed acts as a dike, providing some flood protection to the west-side houses, upstream of the business district. City of San Rafael The City of San Rafael is the county seat of Marin County and is named for the Archangel Raphael. Mission San Rafael Archangel was founded in the area of what is now downtown San Rafael in 1817. In its first year, the Mission gained 300 converts. By 1828, there were 1,140 converts. The Mexican government took over the Mission in 1834. Mission San Rafael was abandoned in 1844, eventually deteriorating into ruin. The city continued to grow, however, and was officially incorporated on February 18th, 1874. Further growth of the city occurred when the North Pacific Railroad Company built a rail line through the area in 1879 and when Dominica University of California was built in 1890. The United States Navy operated a San Pablo Bay degaussing range from San Rafael through World War II. The city has a total area of 22.5 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 18 square miles and lies along San Francisco Bay. The San Rafael shoreline has been historically filled to a considerable extent to accommodate land development. San Rafael has a wide diversity of natural habitats from forests to marshlands. The City of San Rafael is the county seat of Marin County. San Rafael had an estimated population of 61,271 in 2020, with 24,502 housing units in the City. The City has a total area of 22.422 square miles. The median income for a household in the City was $104,521 and the per capita income for the City was $61,962. Approximately 5 percent of families and 9.2 percent of the population were below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau). City of Sausalito The City of Sausalito was founded as a place where ships near San Francisco could pick up fresh water in the 1830’s. A mariner named William A. Richardson had arrived in the area and built a rancho in 1925 in the Marin headlands where a freshwater spring was located. Sausalito is named after the Spanish words for “little willow”, for a stand of small willow trees in the town where the fresh water ran down to San Francisco Bay. The town grew throughout the mid- 1800’s into a small fishing, boat repair and ranching center, inhabited by both fisherman and yacht enthusiasts. The North Pacific Railroad Company developed a southern rail terminus in Sausalito in the 1870’s, providing a link to the Sausalito pier where ferries transported people and goods to and from San Francisco. The first post office was opened in 1870, and the City of Sausalito was incorporated in September 4th, 1893. The neighborhoods of Sausalito continued to grow throughout the early 1900’s, with the development of car ferries to and from San Francisco and the building of the Golden Gate Bridge in 1937. In 1941, the Marin Shipyard Corporation filled in a marshy area north of Sausalito to build the Marin Shipyard, bringing in thousands of ship builders to the area. After World War II, waterfront communities grew out of the abandoned shipyards, contributing to the development of houseboat communities that still exist today. Sausalito maintains its reputation as an art colony and literary enclave. The city has a total area of 2.3 square miles and encompasses both steep, wooded hillside and shoreline tidal flats. The City of Sausalito had an estimated population of 7,269 in 2020, with 4,425 housing units in the City. The City has a total area of 2.257 square miles. The median income for a household in the City was $140,410 and the per capita income for the City was $111,167. Approximately 0 percent of families and 7.3 percent of the population were below the poverty line (2020 data, U.S. Census Bureau). Town of Tiburon The Town of Tiburon is named after the Spanish word for “shark.” The town was first developed through an 1834 Mexican land grant to Irish immigrant John Reed that established several communities in Marin County. The town began to grow in 1884 with the formation of the North Pacific Railroad Company and the first post office opened the same year. The rail line extended from San Rafael to its original southern terminus in Point Tiburon with connection to San Francisco by ferry. Industry including codfish canning, brick making, powder making and train building and repair brought growth to the Tiburon area in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s. The U.S. Navy established a coaling station in Tiburon in 1904. World War II brought additional growth to Tiburon, and the Town of Tiburon was officially incorporated on June 23rd, 1964. The l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 19 town has a total area of 13.2 square miles, and lies on a peninsula jutting into San Francisco Bay. The Town of Tiburon had an estimated population of 9,146 in 2020, with 4,047 housing units in the Town. The Town has a total area of 13.182 square miles. The median income for a household in the Town was $192,292 and the per capita income for the Town was $119,477. Approximately 0 percent of families and 1.3 percent of the population were below the poverty line (2010 data, U.S. Census Bureau). Unincorporated Communities All unincorporated areas of Marin County are under jurisdiction of the County. Unincorporated communities include Bel Marin Keys, California Park, Dogtown, Fallon, Forest Knolls, Greenbrae, Hamlet, Ignacio, Inverness Park, Lagunitas, Los Ranchitos, Lucas Valley, Marconi, Marshall, Olema, Paradise Cay, San Quentin, Tamalpais Valley and Tocaloma. In unincorporated areas, basic services like water, sewer, police and fire protection are provided by the county. The County Service Area (CSA) Law (Government Code §25210.1 et seq.) was created in the 1950’s to provide a means of providing expanded service levels in areas where residents are willing to pay for the extra service. CSAs allow small communities in unincorporated areas to pay for and receive specific services from the county. The CSAs in Marin County include: County Service Area 1 - Loma Verde County Service Area 6 - Gallinas Creek County Service Area 9 - Northbridge County Service Area 13 - Upper Lucas Valley County Service Area 14 - Homestead Valley County Service Area 16 - Greenbrae County Service Area 17 - Kentfield/Larkspur County Service Area 18 - Las Gallinas County Service Area 19 - Los Ranchitos, Country Club, and Santa Venetia County Service Area 20 - Indian Valley County Service Area 27 - Ross Valley County Service Area 28 - West Marin County Service Area 29 - Paradise Cay County Service Area 31 - Fire Service in Unincorporated Marin County Service Area 33 - Stinson Beach Special Districts The following is a list of independent Special Districts in Marin County: Almonte Sanitary District Alto Sanitary District Bel Marin Keys Community Services District Bolinas Community Public Utility District Bolinas Fire Protection District Homestead Valley Sanitary District Inverness Public Utility District l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 20 Kentfield Fire Protection District Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Marin City Community Services District Marin Healthcare District Marin Municipal Water District Marin Resource Conservation District Marinwood Community Services District Muir Beach Community Services District North Marin Water District Novato Fire Protection District Novato Sanitary District Richardson Bay Sanitary District Ross Valley Sanitary District Sausalito-Marin City Sanitary District Sleepy Hollow Fire Protection District Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit District Southern Marin Fire Protection District Stinson Beach Fire Protection District Stinson Beach Water District Strawberry Recreation District Tamalpais Community Service District Tiburon Fire Protection District Tiburon Sanitary District No. 5 Tomales Village Community Service District The following is a list of dependent jurisdictions in Marin County: Corte Madera Sanitary District No. 2 Marin County Parks Open Space District San Rafael Sanitation District San Quentin Village Sewer Maintenance District Sausalito Marin City Sanitary District Sewerage Agency of Southern Marin Murray Park Sewer Maintenance District l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 21 Figure 1.2: Fire Protection Districts in Marin County Source: Marin County Community Wildfire Protection Plan l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ , ~✓J-... .) -----! \ '> ( \ \ I / ! Inverness Publi.5lUtility Di stri ct Mar in Co un ty Fi re Auth orities County Fire (CSA31) 101 OIRCIOf EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 11b Novato Fire Protecti onIato District \ Mari nw.g!)d Communi ty Services District County Fire (CSA 19) 12' 37 12 / /l / San Rafa e l Fire ! Department \ -..... _ -------------------------------'""-----,...-/\, Fire Service Providers FlreAuthority Sol inas Fire Protection District Central Marin Fire Department County Fire (CSA 31) I nverness Public Utility rnstrict Kentfield Fire Protection District Marinwood commun ity Services District Novato Fire Protection Dist ri ct Ross Valley Fire Department San Rafael Fire Department Southern Ma rin Fire Protection District Stinson Beach Fire Protection District Tiburon Fire Protection District ', 0 2.5 ""•·5-----l 10 Miles Mar in County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email : OEM _GIS @Ma ri nCounty.org Date Printed : 08/11/23 County of Marin, californ ia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bu reau of Land Management, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 22 Figure 1.3: School Districts in Marin County Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County School Districts OIIIClDf EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT West Sonoma ('> Coun ty,Union High • -' ,,,... ScHool Distric t ---·< \ l ( ' \ I I \ ~ I .... ' ' ' '\ ~h'pf~line Urnfied ·Schoo l 'District ~ I 'I. / / 'l \. \ I'- ; J ( • <( _, 1 t/ Point Reyes I I .. \ National "~ f A Seashore I I ,, I ,., ' .......... ,, ..... .::::,.., \.... ( > -->r ..! ..;::-:. r-- I /I ../ ' ' ,, ,, I \ .. \ ,, '..--, o• 12 -Two'Rock Union Elententary Sc hool District 116 Laguna Joint Ele mentary, " Schoo l Di strict \ ( l I ' \ ' ', 1~---~-9) ~.1 ·~ l / Uncoln Elementary t.,, -.... 1 School D,s tnct 1 r ( ,I Olo ·Adobe Union El ement'ary School ) Distri~I\ Nova to tlnifiecl Schoof Di stric t 121 3? Nicas io Elementary School District I.. I", ' I ' ' ' ~--.... fiiiii --/ .,.,... _ , Di xie Elementa'}I , San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area ,. ' _ ,,,. ~~/ School District 1 \ Lagu nitas J ''-s a.n ~alael~ ..,, "' / A "• Elementary f ~ Coty _l;i I9h . '-., / '\ School Dist rict --< Schootp1stnct . ( ) / t • , !?,.an Rafael City ' "'-" , ..... / \ , ... ! S!t;t.'!1!.'1~a .... ~ ...... v J '-I Tamalpa is 1.,Jnio n _ ,.·~, School D!!!t!)CJ· '-J Hi gh School \ • • -'-.., • •' ~.. I ', Di strict \-,.. .. ~ __ ;~---.. _ .... ' 1 Solinas-Sti nso n.., ~ I \ U . El ,~.,. ,.,a,•c-., \ noon emen tary \ r Larkspu r ' -• l\ ...., School District ' .. ~ ..... "" -r E lementary'" \ ' \. '\ ,. -• vSchool Districi' - 'I..., ,,Millv'i f . '\':. , Mt < lpa•·~ill Va ll ey '•t eed lJ,n ion , St t P .Elementary ; , •~ Elementary , , a e ,'school District ~:: School -District•._ -, t l I - I -.., ,,·..:,-<""' ,.:"'" ~ ... , ..... , Re re ion Area ._ ;_,:; \ .,.,.-- San Franciscd' ~ ,~Unifi~d ·SChool 2 _5 --,_,,__ ____ ! 10 District 0 Miles Ma ri n County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email : OEM _GIS @Mar inCounty.org Date Printed : 08/08/23 [!an N County of Marin, (allfomla State Parks, Esrl, HERE, Ga rmin, SafeGrap h, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bu reau of Land Manage ment, EPA, NPS 10 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 23 Protected Areas The following protected areas are within or contiguous to Marin County: National Protected Areas • Golden Gate National Recreation Area • Marin Islands National Wildlife Refuge • Muir Woods National Monument • Point Reyes National Seashore • San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge • Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary State Parks • Angel Island State Park • China Camp State Park • Mount Tamalpais State Park • Olompali State Historic Park • Samuel P. Taylor State Park • Tomales Bay State Park Marine Protected Areas • Duxbury Reef State Marine Conservation Area • Estero Americano State Marine Recreational Management Area • Estero de San Antonio State Marine Recreational Management Area • Point Reyes State Marine Reserve & Drakes Estero State Marine Conservation Area Figure 1.4: Muir Woods National Monument Source: National Park Service l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 24 Figure 1.5: Marin County Parks and Public Lands Source: Marin County Marin County’s identity is largely shaped by its abundant natural resources and long history of open space preservation efforts to retain its rural character. A variety of factors have strictly limited development in the County over the last 5 years including large swaths of permanently protected federal and state parkland, large acreage of farm and ranch lands permanently protected through conservation easements, and Countywide Plan policies and development codes which restrain growth in sensitive habitat areas and/or flood hazard areas. Similarly future development is limited by these same constraints, as outlined in Section 4.10 Future Development. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ ~L,, , ... \\:.· l_:l k I j ,,.. C • <: V /' ,..i\-1 \~·--. .... l ,/ Open Space and Parlra D Marin CcKJnty Opati Sp;ac■ FIRISGIVCIS CJ M,:uT1 Coon,y P-alkS D N.sl:ia1 ;3 I P;skServic:.e D Cthet" Parks .std P ublic L ::sn:B LJV.~~s ..---, L. .. -.! Cttull~ E!o,undary c::::Jc.ty&uod~ --1-fgh.w:3.)"5 ;zir-d Map-IRc;uis Streams --l'rnesmi'llml Water BodlH C]w.., + - 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 25 1.5.1 DEMOGRAPHICS Marin County is the 26th most populated county in the state of California. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population of Marin County in July 2021 was 260,206, an increase of 2.99% from the 2010 population of 252,409. The estimated population of Marin County in 2023 is around 265,294. Figure 1.6: Population of Marin County 1860-2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2020 Survey Marin County grew rapidly from the 1930’s to the 1970’s, with slower growth from the 1970’s to the 2020’s. Between 1960 and 1970, the population of Marin County grew by 71.48% and has only grown by 21.45% since. Since the last plan update in 2018, the population of Marin County has remained fairly level. Table 1.1: Marin County Population Changes 1860-2020 Year Population Change Growth Rate 1850 323 N/A N/A 1860 3,334 3,011 932.20% 1870 6,903 3,569 107.05% 1880 11,324 4,421 64.04% 1890 13,072 1,748 15.44% 1900 15,702 2,630 20.12% 1910 25,114 9,412 59.94% 1920 27,342 2,228 8.87% 1930 41,648 14,306 52.32% 1940 52,907 11,259 27.03% 1950 85,619 32,712 61.83% 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ POPULATION OF MARIN COUNTY 1860-2020 YEAR 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 26 1960 146,820 61,201 71.48% 1970 206,038 206,038 40.33% 1980 222,568 16,350 8.02% 1990 230,096 7,528 3.38% 2010 252,916 22,313 9.70% 2020 262,321 9,405 3.77% Table 1.1: Marin County Population Changes 1860-2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2020 Survey The California Department of Finance shows an overall estimated decrease in the population of Marin County since the last plan update in 2018. Of the total estimated 257,135 residents of Marin County in 2022 based on the 2020 U.S. Census Survey, 190,148 residents live in the incorporated county and 66,987 residents live in the unincorporated county. Table 1.2: Marin County Estimated Jurisdictional Population Jurisdiction Population 2022 (Estimate) Population 2020 Population 2018 (Estimate) Percent Change 2018-2022 Marin County 257,135 262,321 262,179 -1.92% Unincorporated Marin County 66,987 66,987 68,963 -2.87% City of Belvedere 2,080 2,126 2,102 -1.04% City of Larkspur 12,797 13,064 12,396 3.13% City of Mill Valley 13,850 14,231 14,702 -5.80% City of Novato 52,441 53,225 54,036 -2.95% City of San Rafael 60,560 61,271 59,851 1.17% City of Sausalito 7,072 7,269 7,449 -5.06% Town of Corte Madera 10,028 10,222 10,104 -0.75% Town of Fairfax 7,418 7,605 7,625 -2.71% Town of Ross 2,301 2,338 2,566 -10.33% Town of San Anselmo 12,645 12,830 12,853 -1.62% Town of Tiburon 8,956 9,146 9,542 -6.14% Table 1.2: Marin County Estimated Jurisdictional Population Source: California Department of Finance Population counts of the Marin County unincorporated area were taken in the 2020 and 2010 U.S. Census Surveys. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 27 Table 1.3: Marin County Estimated Jurisdictional Population Community Population 2020 Population 2010 Percent Change 2010-2020 Marin County 262,321 262,179 -1.92% Unincorporated Marin County 66,987 68,963 -2.87% City of Belvedere 2,126 2,102 -1.04% City of Larkspur 13,064 12,396 3.13% City of Mill Valley 14,231 14,702 -5.80% City of Novato 53,225 51,904 -2.95% City of San Rafael 61,271 59,851 1.17% City of Sausalito 7,269 7,449 -5.06% Town of Corte Madera 10,222 10,104 -0.75% Town of Fairfax 7,605 7,625 -2.71% Town of Ross 2,338 2,566 -10.33% Town of San Anselmo 12,830 12,853 -1.62% Town of Tiburon 9,146 9,542 -6.14% Table 1.3: Marin County Estimated Jurisdictional Population Change 2010-2020 Source: California Department of Finance The Association Bay Area of Governments (ABAG) projects that the population in the unincorporated County will grow by only 2% in the next two decades. Tam Valley, Kentfield/Greenbrae, and the Marinwood/Lucas Valley communities are the most populous areas within the unincorporated County. The median age of Marin County residents in 2020 is 47.1, with 45.6 for males and 48.4 for females. The male to female ratio in Marin County as of 2020 is 126,529 males (48.77%) and 132,912 females (51.23%.) There are 207,467 adults in Marin County as of 2020, 57,834 of whom are seniors. Table 1.4: Marin County Population Age by Gender 2020 Age Population Male Female Under 5 years 12,014 5,852 6,162 5 to 9 years 13,355 6,703 6,652 10 to 14 years 16,784 8,574 8,210 15 to 19 years 15,122 7,676 7,446 20 to 24 years 11,663 6,009 5,654 25 to 29 years 10,562 5,709 4,853 30 to 34 years 11,896 6,237 5,659 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 28 Table 1.4: Marin County Population Age by Gender 2020 Age Population Male Female 35 to 39 years 14,253 7,160 7,093 40 to 44 years 16,191 8,237 7,954 45 to 49 years 20,074 9,925 10,149 50 to 54 years 20,430 10,051 10,379 55 to 59 years 20,887 9,616 11,271 60 to 64 years 18,376 9,071 9,305 65 to 69 years 17,971 8,307 9,664 70 to 74 years 15,424 7,088 8,336 75 to 79 years 10,040 4,689 5,351 80 to 84 years 7,083 3,195 3,888 85 years + 7,316 2,430 4,886 Table 1.4: Marin County Population Age by Gender 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2020 Survey By race, Marin County is predominantly white. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 69.7 % of the population is White, 17.1% is Hispanic, 7.1% is Asian, 4.3% is Two or more races, 2.7% is Black or African American, 1.0 % is American Indian or Alaska Native, 0.3% is Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander as of 2022. Table 1.5: Marin County Population by Race or Ethnicity Race or Ethnicity Percent White, alone 69.7 Hispanic, Non-white 17.1 Asian, alone 7.1 Two or More Races 4.3 Black or African American, alone 2.7 American Indian or Alaska Native, alone 1.0 Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, alone 0.3 Table 1.5: Marin County Population by Race or Ethnicity Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2022 Survey l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 29 The average family size in Marin County as of 2022 is 2.97, and the average household size is 2.41 with an approximate home ownership rate of 63.6%. As of 2022, 70.9% of the housing stock was single family structures, 27.3% was multi-family structures, and 1.8% were mobile homes and other types of units. In unincorporated Marin County, the largest proportion of the housing stock was built from 1960 to 1979, with 10,258 units constructed during this period. Since 2010, 1.2% of the current housing stock was built, which equates to 360 units. Table 1.6: Marin County Housing Stock 2022 and 2018 Year Total Units Single Family Multi-Family Mobile Homes Detached Attached 2 to 4 5 plus Marin County 2022 Number 111,879 68,004 11,314 8,524 22,013 1,984 Percent 100.0% 60.8% 10.1% 7.6% 19.7% 1.8% 2018 Number 112,294 68,697 11,318 8,307 21,986 1,986 Percent 100.0% 61.2% 10.1% 7.4% 19.6% 1.8% California 2022 Number 14,583,998 8,341,577 1,010,851 1,168,669 3,500,674 562,223 Percent 100.0% 57.2% 6.9% 8.0% 24.0% 3.9% 2018 Number 14,157,502 8,160,864 985,926 1,129,761 3,318,946 562,005 Percent 100.0% 57.6% 7.0% 8.0% 23.4% 4.0% Table 1.6: Marin County Housing Stock Source: California Department of Finance Table 1.7: Marin County Jurisdictional Housing Stock 2022 and 2018 Year Total Units Single Family Multi-Family Mobile Homes Detached Attached 2 to 4 5 plus Unincorporated Marin County 2022 Number 29,293 22,456 1,875 1,443 2,939 580 Percent 100.00% 76.66% 6.40% 6.43% 10.03% 1.98% 2018 Number 29,723 22,833 1,909 1,409 2,993 579 Percent 100.00% 76.82% 6.42% 4.74% 10.07% 1.95% City of Belvedere 2022 Number 1,062 890 51 84 37 0 Percent 100.00% 83.80% 4.80% 7.91% 3.48% 0.00% 2018 Number 1,048 881 49 81 37 0 Percent 100.00% 84.06% 4.68% 7.73% 3.53% 0.00% City of Larkspur 2022 Number 6,460 2,653 439 479 2,614 275 Percent 100.00% 41.07% 6.80% 7.41% 40.46% 4.26% 2018 Number 6,479 2,650 427 488 2,625 289 Percent 100.00% 40.90% 6.59% 7.53% 40.52% 4.46% l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 30 City of Mill Valley 2022 Number 6,521 4,269 648 380 1,210 14 Percent 100.00% 65.47% 9.94% 5.83% 18.56% 0.21% 2018 Number 6,509 4,296 657 331 1,212 13 Percent 100.00% 66.00% 10.09% 5.09% 18.62% 0.20% City of Novato 2022 Number 21,337 12,465 3,395 1,362 3,572 543 Percent 100.00% 58.42% 15.91% 6.38% 16.74% 2.54% 2018 Number 21,448 12,581 3,427 1,335 3,557 548 Percent 100.00% 58.66% 15.98% 6.22% 16.58% 2.56% City of San Rafael 2022 Number 24,631 11,318 2,490 2,174 8,235 413 Percent 100.00% 45.95% 10.11% 8.83% 33.43% 1.68% 2018 Number 24,078 11,123 2,399 2,090 8,059 407 Percent 100.00% 46.20% 9.96% 8.68% 33.47% 1.69% City of Sausalito 2022 Number 4,435 1,711 802 934 906 82 Percent 100.00% 38.58% 18.08% 21.06% 20.43% 1.85% 2018 Number 4,581 1,776 829 953 938 85 Percent 100.00% 38.77% 18.10% 20.80% 20.48% 1.86% Town of Corte Madera 2022 Number 4,182 2,468 621 376 717 0 Percent 100.00% 59.01% 14.85% 8.99% 17.14% 0.00% 2018 Number 4,207 2,498 609 373 727 0 Percent 100.00% 59.38% 14.48% 8.87% 17.28% 0.00% Town of Fairfax 2022 Number 3,486 2,185 338 499 451 13 Percent 100.00% 62.68% 9.70% 14.31% 12.94% 0.37% 2018 Number 3,594 2,281 345 486 469 13 Percent 100.00% 63.47% 9.60% 13.52% 13.05% 0.36% Town of Ross 2022 Number 882 817 17 23 25 0 Percent 100.00% 92.63% 1.93% 2.61% 2.83% 0.00% 2018 Number 892 831 16 19 26 0 Percent 100.00% 93.16% 1.79% 2.13% 2.91% 0.00% Town of San Anselmo 2022 Number 5,539 4,177 266 376 683 37 Percent 100.00% 75.41% 4.80% 6.79% 12.33% 0.67% 2018 Number 5,563 4,211 269 356 690 37 Percent 100.00% 75.70% 4.84% 6.40% 12.40% 0.67% l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 31 Town of Tiburon 2022 Number 4,051 2,645 386 383 624 14 Percent 100.00% 65.29% 9.53% 9.45% 15.40% 0.35 2018 Number 4,036 2,644 384 370 624 14 Percent 100.00% 65.51% 9.51% 9.17% 15.46% 0.35% Table 1.7: Marin County Jurisdictional Housing Stock Source: California Department of Finance 1.5.2 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE A critical facility may be defined as one that is essential in providing utility or direction either during the response to an emergency or during the recovery operation. FEMA uses the following three categories of critical assets (Essential Facilities, High Potential Loss Facilities, and Infrastructure Systems). Essential facilities are those that if damaged would have devastating impacts on disaster response and/or recovery. High potential loss facilities are those that would have a high loss or impact on the community. Infrastructure systems are a third category of critical assets. Marin County maintains a listing of critical facilities in Marin County and the list is categorized according to FEMA’s critical facility definition. Additionally, each jurisdiction in Marin County lists the critical facilities specific to that jurisdiction. The following are general categories of critical facilities in the Marin County OA: Critical facilities include, without limitation, public safety, emergency response, emergency medical, designated emergency shelters, communications, public utility plant facilities and equipment, and government operations. • Public Safety - Police stations, fire and rescue stations, emergency operations centers • Emergency Response - Emergency vehicle and equipment storage and essential governmental work centers for continuity of government operations • Emergency Medical - Hospitals, emergency care, urgent care, ambulance services • Designated Emergency Shelters • Communications - Main hubs for telephone, main broadcasting equipment for television systems, radio and other emergency warning systems • Public Utility Plant Facilities - including equipment for treatment, generation, storage, pumping and distribution (hubs for water, wastewater, power and gas) • Essential Government Operations - Public records, courts, jails, building permitting and inspection services, government administration and management, maintenance and equipment centers, and public health • Transportation Lifeline Systems - Airports, helipads, and critical highways, roads, bridges and other transportation infrastructure (Note: Critical highways, roads, etc. will be determined during any hazard-specific evacuation planning and are not identified in this plan) At risk population facilities include, without limitation, pre-schools, public and private primary and secondary schools, before and after school care centers with 12 or more students, daycare centers with 12 or more children, group homes, and assisted living residential or congregate care facilities with 12 or more residents. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 32 Hazardous materials facilities include, without limitation, any facility that could, if adversely impacted, release of hazardous material(s) in sufficient amounts during a hazard event that would create harm to people, the environment and property. Transportation Marin County has an ever-developing transportation system, with most travel concentrated along key highways and arterial streets. There are 5 Highways passing through, terminating, or located wholly in Marin County: Interstate 580, U.S. Route 101, State Route 1, State Route 37, and State Route 131. Marin County is connected to surrounding communities by bridges. The Golden Gate Bridge is to the south; the Richmond/San Rafael Bridge is to the east; State Route 37 is to the northeast (across filled bay land over San Pablo Bay); and Highway 101 is to the north (which narrows to a 4-lane uncontrolled road that traverses San Antonio Creek). One of the major problems Marin County faces during an emergency is the possibility of being isolated from the surrounding communities and any resources or help. Light rail service recently began supplementing existing transportation options along U.S. Route 101 between Marin and Sonoma Counties. Utilities Municipal utilities in Marin County include water (drinking water, stormwater, sanitary sewerage), power (electricity and natural gas), telecommunications, and solid waste. Several water management utilities supply treated water for domestic and fire suppression purposes. These distribution systems rely largely on the County’s topography for collecting surface water, storing it in reservoirs, and distributing it with gravity-fed systems. As such, the water management utilities are separated by both functional area and geography, but they are working more and more to coordinate within watersheds. Marin Municipal Water District (MMWD) is the largest water district in Marin, serving central and southern portions of the county east of Mount Tamalpais and Bolinas Ridge. North Marin Water District (NMWD) serves Novato and communities along Tomales Bay including Olema, Point Reyes Station, Inverness, and Dillon Beach. Bolinas and Stinson Beach, two communities in West Marin, have separate water and sanitary districts. To include the Bolinas Community Public Utility District. Inverness Public Utility District is the primary water utility for Inverness Park and the Estero Mutual Water Company serves Dillon Beach. There are 23 agencies providing wastewater services in Marin County, including special districts, municipalities, JPAs and the Federal and State government. Stormwater utilities such as open channels, catch basins and storm drains are managed by the cities, towns, and the county in unincorporated areas and are coordinated through the Marin County Stormwater Pollution Prevention Program (MCSTOPPP). Additionally, the Marin County Flood Control and Water Conservation District maintains some larger drainage infrastructure where zones have been designated. The District and some cities/towns such as San Rafael, Corte Madera, and Novato operate stormwater pump stations. Natural gas and electricity distribution occurs through infrastructure owned and maintained by PG&E, a private utility corporation. Natural gas is piped into Marin from the central valley around the North Bay through Solano, Napa, and Sonoma Counties. The main transmission pipelines are underground along Highway 101 and flow south, branching into local distribution lines and private laterals. PG&E also brings power into Marin around the North Bay on overhead l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 33 transmission lines that emanate from the Ignacio substation in Novato. Additional substations are located along Hwy 101 in Las Gallinas, San Rafael, Greenbrae, and Mill Valley to the South and in Novato, Stafford, Tocaloma, Olema, Bolinas and Woodacre to the North and East. Telecommunications include telephone service, cable television and wireless services. AT&T maintains infrastructure for providing landlines, while Comcast provides cable television. A variety of cellular and wireless service companies operate in Marin and provide access points in the form of cellular towers, wireless antennas and equipment. There are six solid waste haulers that operate within Marin County organized geographically and with agreements with cities and towns. All of this garbage, recycling, and greenwaste is brought to one of two processing centers; Redwood Landfill in Novato and Marin Resource Recovery Center in San Rafael. 1.5.3 NATURAL, HISTORICAL, AND CULTURAL RESOURCES Assessing Marin County’s vulnerability to disaster also involves inventorying the natural, historical, and cultural assets of the area. This step is important for the following reasons: • The community may decide that these types of resources warrant a greater degree of protection due to their unique and irreplaceable nature and contribution to the overall economy. • In the event of a disaster, an accurate inventory of natural, historical and cultural resources allows for more prudent care in the disaster’s immediate aftermath when the potential for additional impacts is higher. • The rules for reconstruction, restoration, rehabilitation, and/or replacement are often different for these types of designated resources. • Natural resources can have beneficial functions that reduce the impacts of natural hazards. Natural Resources Marin County is located along California’s Pacific Coast (between San Francisco and Sonoma), including 72 miles of coastline. The highest point in the county, Mount Tamalpais, is 2,572 feet above sea level. The county has many microclimates with varying weather patterns, but the climate is generally Mediterranean with an average annual temperature of 56.5 degrees Fahrenheit. The Marin Countywide Plan divides the 606 square miles of land and water that make up Marin County into four distinct environmental regions called corridors. Each corridor is based on specific geographical and environmental characteristics and natural boundaries: • The Coastal Corridor is adjacent to the Pacific Ocean and is primarily designated for federal parklands, recreational uses, agriculture, and the preservation of existing small coastal communities. • The Inland Rural Corridor, in the central and northwestern part of the county, is primarily designated for agriculture and compatible uses, and for preservation of existing small communities. • The City-Centered Corridor, along Highway 101 in the eastern part of the county near San Francisco and San Pablo bays, is primarily designated for urban development and l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 34 for protection of environmental resources. This corridor is divided into six planning areas generally based on watersheds. • The Baylands Corridor, encompassing lands along the shoreline of San Francisco, San Pablo, and Richardson bays, provides heightened recognition of the unique environmental characteristics of this area and the need to protect its important resources. The area generally contains marshes, tidelands, and diked lands that were once wetlands or part of the bays, and adjacent, largely undeveloped uplands. Figure 1.7: Marin County Environmental Corridors Source: Marin Countywide Plan l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ SOURCE.. COunly or Morn c:J C,>u,ily Bo'°""'IJ' D Ci)' Boundiuy = t,tgl,W'$)0, •I'd M•jot R<iild5 Water ,Bodies l.8kt:5 Em,lronm!!nlial Corrldaro B~ods COfiidol LJ Clrf.C..,10,..,; COni:lor D ""RtJ,.1J COOidor ~ICmlDI< N D , A 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 35 Within its environmental corridors, Marin County is home to a number of diverse and important natural communities, from coastal marine environments to bay marshlands and mudflats, riparian habitats, and an upland mosaic of forests, woodlands, grasslands, and chaparral. Figure 1.8: Marin County Habitat Types Source: Marin Countywide Plan Since the mid-19th century, grazing, logging, agriculture, road building, and development have markedly altered the natural landscape in Marin County. The continued loss of oak woodland, oak savannah, and other native woodland habitat through their conversion to primarily urban l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Ban-er»'Rod(BAl Ct,.,par (CA/COi D c...., S.11 lwoh IHCI O eo., ·Scrub l CK/NCj D Oooglos , .. /RO<l,rood ..,..,.. fOl'IRDj O oime j OU j D Frest,,,-. Manh jHTIHJI D Gni-Agrioul-. V,.G/j,jG.loiMIIG) D N-31i .. ~-.in .. <Sonib jOZI IC-'lt.ll lS) D O.,k Woodlond (QAIOO/OG/Q.) O..kl&y Woodlord (tllXKJB I LJ Pin..Cyi;ross FGrest (t,11.l'l.el/PR,PMI Rodwoa:I FDl=1 IRW I D Rip;,ri"'1 SallblWGa:llond (~EIQO/OYM\.) D Urbm,JtJom:,pedl(E)WB) n.· puYdlc•~m ■ir.~taAat~ 111lrlK.1-<l.-tb,htU~flA.f ~i!'.n-.:::alaimrilfl•~ 2D4\IU:EJAlk>.i~ ~ M::lc::i6.dUSt:MiFo:::ll•S- I:::'.,;... ·~...!:::.~,;.,.,_-~----- Legend [:~] Ca.mty Boor.t..y D City 8:Jl,r;xlal)' 0 1 2 --Highways .andl M..,r Roads Streams --P.eti!!nnlilll --KT~ille!l1il! E:ph,,meral 11 .. ~-.,g~q:Jlil:GGfiltiil.PUiilPlRPCililili liif.COUll't' ~..,._...lti!IIOT ~(RU!'AJ; R!lR US:G' lhtl~ la'DIDITl~FtHIPClliC t-. ~1,.JD + 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 36 uses resulted in the adoption of the County Native Tree Preservation and Protection Ordinance in 1999. This regulates the removal of native trees and is intended to use local regulations to protect sensitive resources. Sensitive natural communities are natural community types that are considered particularly rare or threatened by the California Natural Diversity Data Base of the California Department of Fish and Game. Sensitive natural community types in Marin include, but are not limited to, coastal and valley freshwater marsh, freshwater seep and spring, riparian forest and woodland, coastal brackish marsh, coastal terrace prairie, central dune scrub, coastal bluff scrub, northern coastal salt marsh, northern maritime chaparral, northern vernal pool, serpentine bunchgrass, valley needlegrass grasslands, old growth redwood and Douglas fir forests, and deciduous woodlands dominated by valley oaks or Oregon white oak. Marin County’s abundance of natural resources and progressive environmental leadership have supported a long legacy of open space preservation to help protect and restore wetlands and other ecosystems for both habitat and flood control, amongst other co-benefits. The Marin Countywide Plan includes goals, policies, and implementing programs for the acquisition, conservation, and restoration of wetlands, riparian areas, and other habitats. Watersheds and Wetlands Marin’s watersheds and wetlands are some of its most valuable assets and can provide protective functions that reduce the magnitude of hazard events. Bounded by ridges, Marin’s watersheds carry water, sediments, nutrients, and more, downstream into large water bodies including the Pacific Ocean, San Francisco Bay, and Tomales Bay. Wetlands can be found in the lower watersheds, with habitat types including fresh-, salt-, and brackish-water marshes which provide food and shelter for a variety of flora and fauna, including special status plants, fish, birds, amphibians, and mammals. These ecosystems can also buffer flood impacts by reducing wave attenuation from storm surge or serve as detention basins during large rainfall events. Sea level rise threats have led to heightened interest in the use of wetlands and other living shorelines such as oyster beds, eelgrass, and sand dunes as adaptation strategies to protect lives and properties while providing habitat, recreation, carbon sequestration, and other co-benefits. One of the goals of Marin County is to avoid and minimize potential adverse impacts on existing wetlands and to encourage programs for restoration and enhancement of degraded wetlands. By establishing a Wetland Conservation Area, the County seeks to require that development to avoid wetland areas so that the existing wetlands and upland buffers are preserved and opportunities for enhancement are retained. Maintaining and enhancing wetlands serves to reduce the costs of flood damage, water pollution, and water supply redistribution. Several living shoreline pilot projects are currently underway throughout Marin County to demonstrate their effectiveness. The Marin County Watershed Program identifies fourteen watersheds throughout the County. The following pages provide information about watersheds in the unincorporated area of the County. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 37 Figure 1.9: Marin County Wetlands Source: Marin Countywide Plan l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ :~:· \ .. 4,' :_ ., ... "";.,. I;, • I -\ ".•$ ~ •• , .-·-;..~_ : rv-~"'L.:. ~.!E. D:dla:f!hm!!lli ~lcnal ,WrlaD.,.rf:rl ~nb!t111161a.-.bi::ii.lil.-~ I . ('-. . \ .• L,.' ◄ .... '!., . .,,. ':-.:J Coonly Boundary DcilyBoor<f.,., == Mbjor Road's Wo llands I S~e•m• C]w ... nd , --l'eelVIW lnl""'""'""L !Efti"""~r.tl I 2 ~iMU.~FtAGaalJL.'A.M~ 'aloCOAIT1G'IIMRhiSillOt'Ra.-~CiA l v.alJ: Fmlllli:a MlliF'M'rOal!T,l,~FUIPCl!IIE" + 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 38 Figure 1.10: Marin County Watersheds Source: Marin Countywide Plan Bolinas Lagoon With a 16.7 mi2 watershed, Bolinas Lagoon consists of mudflats, marshes, tidal channels and a flood shoal island. Other watershed habitats include coastal scrub, Douglas fir, redwood forests, and grasslands as well as small patches of eucalyptus, oak and oak-bay woodland, and pine cypress forest. Noteworthy species include ridgeway and black rails, salt marsh common yellowthroat, California red-legged frog, California brown pelican, American peregrine falcon, l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ [_.J Ca!Jnfy BoundarJ Ocit111ou""'"1' = ~h""'F•r>:l Map Road> W ate r Bodies LJ L>ire, D L>g,:,oll~ M.;,r Wai...hods •.llLLER Cfi/£E.K Wa l>nhod t4.,,, .. NSIWl'Mldi~~Fal~ff:VII ~ 11&' m.MffCI-IIIWthlS.~ ~-.SQA UliA.lt:P:11. JS~ D>a'MAIII~ r1'5DmaEmPUIF'DE Da.n1pllmS + 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 39 Point Reyes mountain beaver, Point Reyes jumping mouse, Coho salmon, steelhead trout, northern spotted owl, black swift, and Marin manzanita. In 2008 the “Bolinas Lagoon Ecosystem Restoration Project: Recommendations for Restoration and Management” was completed by a working group of community representatives and scientists, with recommended actions including restoring natural sediment transport and ecological functions of the lagoon, identifying and managing non-native species, and protecting water quality. The Marin County Parks’ Bolinas Wye Wetlands Resiliency Project also serves to restore habitat, improve road safety, and adapt to sea level rise in Bolinas Lagoon. Estero Americano The County’s northernmost watershed, the 49 mi2 Estero Americano watershed straddles the Marin and Sonoma County boundaries. Americano Creek draining into Bodega Bay, is the watershed’s only tributary, and is ephemeral, generally drying up for 4-6 months between late spring and fall. The Estero Americano contains 301 acres of open water, and 412 acres of wetland habitat with mudflats, seasonal brackish marsh and freshwater marsh. With streamside habitat of grazed pastures with few trees interspersed with dense willow thickets, and coastal oak woodland in the upper watershed, Estero Americano has been identified by the California Department of Fish and Game as among the most significant habitat areas in the State. The watershed’s special status species include the Northwestern pond turtle, steelhead trout, California red-legged frog, Myrtle’s silverspot butterfly, tidewater goby, and tricolored blackbird. A 1987 enhancement plan led to repair of many of the watershed’s eroded areas, which was undertaken by the Gold Ridge Resource Conservation District (RCD) with funding from the State Coastal Conservancy. In 2007 the RCD developed the Estero Americano Watershed Management Plan. Gallinas Creek Located in Eastern Marin, the 5.6 mi2 watershed has two main drainage areas; the north fork and South Gallinas Slough. The watershed is highly urbanized with fragmented native plant communities. Upper watershed habitats include annual grasslands interspersed with mixed evergreen forest, coastal scrub and small outcroppings of serpentine habitat. Continuous with China Camp State Park is a large tract of oak-bay woodland along the southern watershed boundary. Lower marsh habitats represent some of the largest remaining tidally influenced habitats in the Bay Area with noteworthy special status species including the San Pablo song sparrow, California black rail, salt marsh harvest mouse and the ridgeway rail. A three-acre tidal marsh restoration effort by the Marin Audubon Society and Marin Community Foundation was completed in 1977. The Friends of Gallinas Creek, San Pablo Watershed Restoration Program Partners, the Bay Institute and Marin County Stormwater Pollution Prevention Program are planning extensive restoration in the upper and lower watershed to improve riparian cover, provide habitat, reduce erosion, and restore wetlands. Tomales Bay The Tomales Bay Watershed encompasses the subwatersheds of Lagunitas Creek, Walker Creek, Inverness Creek, and east shore drainages including Millerton Gulch, Grand Canyon, and Tomasini Canyon. Resource rich, nearly 500 species of birds and the most robust l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 40 population of native coho salmon remaining in the Central Coast region are supported by the Bay. Tomales Bay is a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance with intertidal, subtidal, and benthic habitas, as well as dunes, mud flats, salt marshes and freshwater marshes. Eelgrass beds are also found throughout Tomales Bay, and provide important habitat for fish, birds, and other species, while combatting shoreline erosion by dampening wave energy and storms. The Tomales Bay Watershed Stewardship Plan was completed in 2003. Restoration projects are underway in the Walker and Lagunitas Creek areas. Miller Creek With a watershed covering 12 mi2, Miller creek uniquely has a relatively intact riparian area with very high widths and depths relative to its drainage area. While relatively urbanized, the watershed still supports a small population of steelhead. Its lower marsh habitats include some of the Bay Area’s largest remaining tidally-influenced habitats that support abundant waterfowl. The watershed is dominated by annual grasslands interspersed with oak-bay woodland and oak savanna in the upper watershed with patches of chaparral. Middle reaches are primarily urbanized. The watershed’s lower reaches east of Highway 101 support saltwater and brackish- water marshes subject to tidal action. Noteworthy special status species include the San Pablo Song Sparrow, California black rail, saltmarsh harvest mouse, ridgeway rail and steelhead trout. Novato Creek As Eastern Marin’s largest watershed, Novato Creek Watershed’s creeks flow eastward through oak and bay forests, grasslands, unincorporated Marin County, and the City of Novato, and into San Pablo Bay near the mouth of the Petaluma River. The basin is 45 mi2 and its main drainage is the 17 mi2 Novato Creek, which has 6 major tributaries. Diverse habitat types include saltwater marsh, brackish marsh, freshwater wetlands, oak woodlands, annual grasslands and oak savanna. Special status species include the San Pablo Song Sparrow, California black rail, saltmarsh common yellowthroat, ridgeway rail and Western pond turtle. Salmonids including steelhead and Chinook salmon are also found within the watershed. Point Reyes National Seashore Creeks This watershed is comprised of almost 100 mi2 of land and nearly 80 miles of undeveloped coastline, with subwatersheds that drain into Drake’s Estero, Abbotts Lagoon, Estero de Limanotour, the Pacific Ocean, portions of the Bolinas Lagoon and the Tomales Bay. Habitat types include estuaries, mud flats, sandy shores, intertidal communities and a variety of upland habitats. Special-status species include the endemic Mountain Beaver, Point Reyes jumping mouse, California freshwater shrimp, Myrtle’s silverspot, Point Reyes blue butterfly, San Francisco forktail damselfly and steelhead trout. Richardson Bay With San Francisco Bay’s second largest eelgrass bed, Richardson Bay supports genetically diverse and extensive intertidal habitat. As an Important Bird Area along the Pacific Flyway, the Bay supports hundreds of thousands of migrating waterbirds during the winter months. Noteworthy special-status species include the California black rail, San Pablo song sparrow, salt marsh harvest mouse, and Point Reyes bird’s-beak. Salmonids including steelhead trout are also supported. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 41 Ross Valley Receiving over 50 inches of rain annually, the 28 mi2 Ross Valley watershed is one of Marin County’s wettest areas. With 28 miles of stream channels, the watershed supports a great diversity of habitats including redwood forests, serpentine outcrops, chaparral, oak woodlands, grasslands and tidal wetlands. Special status wildlife include steelhead trout, spotted owls, San Pablo song sparrow, ridgeway and black rails, and salt marsh harvest mouse. Led by the Marin County Flood Control and Water Conservation District, the Ross Valley Flood Protection & Watershed Program’s objective is to reduce flooding throughout the watershed. Creek improvements being considered include debris clearance, invasive vegetation removal, creek bank stabilization, and habitat enhancement. Rush Creek At the Northern edge of Novato, Rush Creek’s wetland habitats includes coastal saltwater and coastal brackish water marsh habitats. The wetlands provide suitable habitat for San Pablo song sparrow, California black rail, saltmarsh common yellowthroat, California brackishwater snail, and ridgeway rail. Restoration efforts include the Rush Creek and Bahia restoration projects. San Antonio Creek Covering around 25% of the Petaluma River watershed, the San Antonio Creek watershed extends from Antonio Mountain and Chileno Valley in the northwest to Petaluma Marsh and the Petaluma River to the southeast. The upper San Antonio Creek watershed is dominated by annual grassland and mixed evergreen forest with patches of oak and bay woodland. The lower watershed includes extensive coastal salt marsh and brackish marsh. Special status species include the California black rail, ridgeway rail, salt marsh common yellowthroat, San Pablo song sparrow, Townsend’s big-eared bat, California red-legged frog, northwestern pond turtle, and salt marsh harvest mouse. Limited salmonids have also been recorded in the watershed. The Petaluma River Watershed Enhancement Plan was completed by the Southern Sonoma County RCD in 1999 with information on riparian and fisheries enhancement. In 2008 the Southern Sonoma County RCD completed the San Antonio Creek Watershed Plan in tandem with local landowners and residents. San Rafael Creek The 11 mi2 San Rafael watershed is densely developed from its hills to filled wetlands. A small marsh at Pickleweed Park provides habitat for native species, and the watershed’s northern edge include intact woodland, grassland and lagoon areas. Southern Coastal Creeks Several smaller watersheds along over 10 miles of southern Marin’s rugged coastlines are protected within National and State Park boundaries. These include Webb Creek, Lone Tree Creek, Cold Stream, Redwood Creek, Alder Creek, Rodeo Lagoon and Tennessee Valley. A variety of habitat types exist amongst these watersheds including seasonal wetlands, riparian woodlands, and freshwater marsh. Special status species include Coho salmon, steelhead trout, l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 42 California red-legged frog, monarch butterflies, northwestern pond turtle, northern spotted owl and more. Stemple Creek Bisected by the Sonoma-Marin County boundary, this 50 mi2 watershed begins just west of Petaluma and empties into the Pacific Ocean through the Estero de San Antonio. Like Estero Americano, the Estero de San Antonio was identified by the California Department of Fish and Game as among the most significant habitat areas in California with densely wooded riparian ravines, saltgrass areas, mudflats, eelgrass beds and freshwater ponds. Special-state species include the California freshwater shrimp, northwestern Pond Turtle, tidewater goby, Myrtle’s silverspot butterfly, and the California red-legged frog. In 1994 an enhancement plan was completed, leading to local landowner gully stabilization projects to reduce erosion. The Marin and Sonoma County RCDs, along with the Natural Resources Conservation Service have brought funding into the watershed to improve water quality. Baylands Baylands are areas between historic high and low tide elevations. The baylands ecosystem in Marin County forms a varied pattern of open water, tidal marshes and mudflats, rocky shoreline, seasonal wetlands, and adjacent uplands. Baylands ecosystems are vital to the health of San Pablo, San Francisco, and Tomales bays and have undergone tremendous change, as historical tidal areas were diked for agricultural use, marshes filled and drained for development, and channels dredged and straightened for navigation. An estimated 82% of the historic tidal marshlands along the edge of the San Francisco Bay–Delta Estuary has been filled or altered. Marin County seeks to a establish bayland buffer zones between development and remaining or historic tidelands and wetlands in order to enhance the diversity of its baylands ecosystems and reduce the costs of flood damage, water pollution, and habitat degradation. Grasslands and Forests Marin County has extensive topographic diversity that supports a variety of vegetation types. Environmental factors, such as temperature, precipitation, soil type, aspect, slope, and land use history, all help determine the existing vegetation at any given location. In the central and eastern parts of the county, north-facing slopes are usually densely wooded from lower elevations to ridge peaks with a mixture of mostly hardwood tree species such as coast live oak, California bay, Pacific madrone, and other oak species. Grasslands with a mixture of native and nonnative annual and perennial plant species occur most often in the northern and western parts of the county due to a combination of soil type, lower rainfall, and a long history of ranching. The southern and western slopes tend to have a higher percentage of grasslands. In the west portion of the county closer to the coast, where precipitation is higher and marine influence is greater, most areas are densely forested with conifer species including Bishop pine, Douglas fir, coast redwood, and associated hardwood species. Chaparral vegetation also occurs in parts of the county, especially on steeper south- and west-facing slopes. Insect infestations and plant diseases, such as California oak mortality syndrome (Sudden Oak Death), are increasing and threaten to change the structure and overall health of native plant l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 43 communities in Marin County. Sudden Oak Death has had a major impact on native habitats in Marin since its initial detection in the mid-1990s in Mill Valley, The pathogen believed to be a major cause of Sudden Oak Death, Phytophthora ramorum, is known to affect at least 31 species of plants. Two other plant diseases prevalent in Marin County are pitch canker (which affects conifers such as Bishop pine and other pine species), and madrone twig dieback (which affects Pacific madrones). Oak woodland and savannah are also threatened by development. The continued loss of oak woodland, oak savannah, and other native woodland habitat through their conversion to primarily urban uses in the County resulted in the adoption of the County Native Tree Preservation and Protection Ordinance in 1999. This regulates the removal of native trees and is intended to use local regulations to protect sensitive resources. Geology Marin County is located within the central portion of the Coast Range Physiographic Province of California, composed of a series of northwest-southeast aligned coastal mountain chains dominated by the San Andreas Fault Zone. The geology of Marin County is distinctly different on either San Andreas Fault, with areas east of the fault dominated by the Franciscan Formation and associated mélange and west of the fault by granitic rocks and overlying sedimentary rocks. Areas located east of the San Andreas Fault, have a geology dominated by Cretaceous and Jurassic Age Franciscan Complex bedrock composed of sedimentary and volcanic rocks, serpentine, and sheared mélange. Overlying the bedrock is a layer of colluvium and soil of varying thickness. Slopes underlain by the sheared mélange bedrock tend to have a higher density of deep seated landslides compared to those areas underlain by more competent sandstone. Alluvial sediments made up of unconsolidated sands, gravels, and silts are found along the valley bottoms. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 44 Fi g u r e 1. 11 : M a r i n C o u n t y G e o l o g i c U n i t s ( E a s t o f S a n A n d r e a s F a u l t ) So u r c e : M a r i n C o u n t y w i d e P l a n Geologic; t'Ytip Units &.irficiill D~osits Qaf.lifti iieial Fi0 llnJA1ii,;i~ Filo'll!l rMiill'Sle and Minh Dtp<ds Ct.·9'1~f'i~nd! D:t•l).nt Sar-d On .-,'al'Sl t -and Mi11Gh 0 (4)0SCi (J:5,b't4.ijfhll!posit:. lli1·10u'lium -llJ-1.kdi~~n'liai e-d! Swicill Oepo~, D>al-Oli!ert41u1'iurn ll -Mlril'lt ~d 'Strt.m T itQt,t O!po~iti O'ni.JAUtrltlrl f (l mvli o,i Ck:-Oiilmiilfom.tii;n Rocks Wes1 Of And Wilhin The San Andreas Fault Zone UfrrtM?rced Rim\a:iori Tse-Sn.a Clu i Mlldi:Wlll Tm-M..ne"y Sh-alt Rocks: Ea-st Of And With in The San Andf@as fiill '-'1 lone ~ Tw11-VLbon UIO~ f(ll'1'TV!ion 111111 f,-.,.smo,rui \hle:3nk:s 111111 Ts-Unr1:umd Sal'Jdstone f ranoi 101n Com pl•)( Hf.S:.l'ld:!:IIGl'lt.ll"td $Nila nl-Un"l!:,t.one Jnd O\en t.1g-Gre<enSWl'lt! """"°"" ~.(;r-a ~~ll ~Cbba 511 KJtn,Mm,O~y_u:1:1kae K.tth-Oli!R t'JQC-Cceensone ;and OIEft ~-Greenstme Jtn~t-tata-()unstori,a ..ltNh-Met.W-.•n Jrngo-t.a.1-Cft~Ol'le :!ndli11!21chE:rt )ts-Ch!eRStOM Jtng-~m,:rph ~ Rx:IG, Gneis:s:ic tr-Melangia Oru t V~l•y Co tl'!p l l!c< KJp ll'ldi i.4~ SJlrdJtol\e , 5 h!le, and Congl«ntt3le V.gwi-ttr«o Co~lorneme .. l(.Jl116-S•mdsone.in,i Cla)Sone .. iP·St:IP'ln'linh Ill '°' smc:1,, C:artM:111 Riek e[?,•' I ,,. . ,.,..,,..;..o.., " . -)' .... -~-w J -"*.· '•··~-----_' / 1 ;-;:.",<-, '• · "-I / K· ', '· ' ' l ' --,,. J •~, it·),_.~· I,~ I,-{._(' • ~).·,:' ..r,. i.. • -'I ' - h I ~ E--:; w '~ ir~~ ',, '1 \_\•·")_ ~ ..... ~ '!,~ \ ' "\. "" ·,·\,fr.... _,.-;-~r _v ~ } . ',J ' I ,: • ---.~ I J V. ' °'\. \ ~ ' __ ., " 1· ---....;,/ ·-"""' l -1., •.. --·.,,-~,,...--,· , .1_ j J ~ ~ • . , ." ·'1 l \ _ .__f' "· :., _.-.... -.;,_'.~. { : -~' k \ ' / -~.~~-~-~, _,., \ '1 ~ , .. '\ ~,I ( . ./ ,~ :-:~,-..-!~!.,.'-.---~i.-J--- J ,J .. , ,, \ ,_. . • '). CJ • ~ '" ) '\, _I, 1 .~. < ' • ,I I . ' ' ,_,. ... -,·..,. ,',.--/ .r' I . r ' . J I\.,.) r .,..1,, -:.~-• \- ,..,, -l . t \_ ' ·~ f i ~1 ~I ' r::::] Co unty B oundar; c~:J City Bo undary = Hlgnways and Majo r Roads St r eams Perennial I nterm ittent W a te r Bo di es D Lakes D Lagoons f ~i r , u·n (•,A ~-:-__ -'1 ;~ / \, (~-!'? v / ·-; -' .--~ • • ! )t,.}-:.1:( /_.., • • , - I _,,.. ' ,. I ~ '-~-. • l ; IJ , -~ ~ / _,_-'~\;c,---~-, f"'ll:t ; ............... -'~•'';>; -~-(°\' ',~~~ ) i-:~ ' "~' , ~ ~ . -~ :; 1 , ·-, -· , ·:Sa ~{'llC~b~-:i WiH,L"""@.*~ .._,., \1\ ·1 "l'' r .,. °"""' ._ ! -~, t • .,_-, 0 ·. i kt,/ ,~ r l ,;~~~~..,._ , N A r,~c: \ r f / ,.,. • ....~ •. -..,( 1 : I ••- o,.. .. , '..J /l \ in ti ., .. • \. ✓ • "b .i •·. t . .:,-' ; -1 uro,, ."'" "'<._I _ 1 "'=-~ .... II \ • I ~~re o.-=::i,-==!12--•4===0:■.-~e Mies _.,-:;.~ h ·)> ~ ;;,c .... --< z~ Cf) 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 45 Fi g u r e 1. 12 : M a r i n C o u n t y G e o l o g i c U n i t s ( W e s t o f S a n A n d r e a s F a u l t ) So u r c e : M a r i n C o u n t y w i d e P l a n Geologic Map Units as.Beach Sand ad-Sand Sheet an d Dune Deposits Qa ~,Alluvi.Jm Gls-Land sli de Deposis Qo d-Old er Dune Sands Cl-Marin e and Sire am Terrace Deposits -Qoc-Olema Creek Formation CJni-Mi ll erto n F ormalion QTm-Merced Formatio n Twg -Wt loon Gro~e Forma tion Tp-Purisima Formation _ _ Tse-San ta Cruz Mudzon e -TsrreSanta Ma rgarita Sandsto ne --Tm-Mon terey Sha le Tl-Laird Sandstone ~1'i-: •, ,I I . ,~--·J1 r~/v i '?¾:. ,-,, l . J . I ·, ·,"'t: \s-,. 1· ..:.~~~" \ I • ' ~" \ '· • I '··, . I ,,\.[~°\ \·\i -\, . -:.._, ' .i J J _ .. ,, • ' '" })• I \ \ 1 i I ' ',t,/ ·-J ,~-/ .J .,._ . "'"Y.\. I ~- • ~• I /•,I.}. . ...-. • ! -.... J---0, i .___ ' \ . J ! • ( • ,., .. ,_ -~'-.,\ ":,-.-., i ' , \ I~ ---· ', , ~--l ~ --,1 . _r.....--, ..L.•••',·'-· • . • I . ' ,., • \ ·, -•-, ' ,.__ • , (~1x ... _.,-' ' ;_:'7_:_,,,.-_r .. --.../ \~1,t 1 ---·-, ,· -1 "_! -Ir ; ··.,,.r--;, ''· ,-,, \ .j 1-t ·-·\ ~i • • •'"1 ;· -_;, ,,£ .... r .,,,_i ',,. -I •·~J , y .. ' :::---... ;;, ½,.ry,.,, \ ' ., ;,i'•• "--~ I' :-;.\:f1.~ ' •Jo..,'I ., ' ~ I I ,, I}""""',•'< I ~-'1 ,, :-,.._: ... Tpr -Point Reyes Cong lomera te of Gall OWlly 1977 Kg.Por phyritic Granolliorte Kgr, Granodiori te and Grani te .. .. '• f<i!d-Quartz Diorite KJ(.fra nciscan Comp lex, Undivided -m-Metamorphic Rocks N A -==-=----====---M iles 4 e a ~-··-··1 L__.; Co uni y Boundary C::J City Boundary --Highways an d Major Roads streams --Perennial ----lnt ermiUent Water Bodies LJ La kes c::::J Lagoons '"f" i ~-\ ::::::.::.,::, ... iburo~ y- ! -, i ... ·~~: '~rp re ( 'l....J \ ... -, .... h ,)> ~ ;;,c -< --< z~ Cf) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 46 Mineral Resource Zones are grouped by the State of California into four categories based on geologic factors, with Class 2 (MRZ-2) lands having the greatest importance. Class 2 sites are underlain by demonstrated mineral resources considered important to the region or the state as a whole. All of the Marin County’s mineral resource sites are identified by the State as Class 2, except for Ring Mountain, which is considered a Scientific Resource Zone (and therefore not a production site) due to the presence of rare geologic formations. Figure 1.13: Marin County Mineral Resource Sites Source: Marin Countywide Plan 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ ! z ..:;;;;j( .fi m •• i I' J J • l I j Ii . iii! ' ) ll . 11, fif d 1•1 H " 1!1 dJ'-~ -Ii! .i ~ i I " Ill n □i l..i D I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 47 Climate Marin County has many microclimates with varying weather patterns, but the climate is generally Mediterranean with mild and wet winters and hot, dry summers. The average annual temperature is around 56.5 degrees. High temperatures normally range from 49 to 63 degrees in the summer months, which is cooler than most places in California. Low temperatures average around 42 degrees in the winter months, and rarely fall below freezing. Precipitation generally increases with altitude. The topography in Marin County varies greatly, from sea level to elevations around 2,500 feet on Mount Tamalpais. Marin County averages 39 inches of rain per year, making it wetter than most places in California, though it rarely gets snow. Figure 1.14 shows average annual precipitation and Figure 1.15 shows average annual temperature over time. Figure 1.14: Marin County Average Precipitation 1895-2022 Source: National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County, California Precipitation January-December 80.00 in 70.00 in 60.00 in 50 .00 in 40.00 in 30.00 in 20.00 in 10.00 in 2,032 .00mm 1,778.00mm 1,524.00 mm 1.270.00mm 1,016.00mm 762.00mm 508.00 mm 254.00mm 0.00in 4---~---.-----,---~--~--~--~--~--------~--~---+-o.oomm 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2022 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 48 Figure 1.15: Marin County Average Temperature 1895-2022 Source: National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Marin County can experience Northern California Diablo winds in the late summer through early winter. These easterly winds occur as systems of high-pressure form in the Great Basin and flow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains toward the Pacific Ocean. As winds flow over the Sierra Nevada, the winds compress, become warmer, and lower the relative humidity while drying out vegetation. As the winds move through canyons, they pick up speed and create strong gusts which can contribute to large and destructive wildfires. Figure 1.16: Diablo Wind Patterns Source: National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County, California Average Temperature Jan uary-Decem ber S9.0 °F ss.o·F 57.0'F S6.0 °F 55.0"F 54.0"F 53.0 "F 1895-20 22 Tr end (+2 .1 "F/Centu ry) 1s.o·c 14 .4 •c 13.9'C 13.3'C 12.s·c 12.2 'C ll.7'C 52.0 "F+----.------..----.-----,----,-----,.-----.------.-----,-----,-----..----,----J-11.1•c 189S 190S 1915 1925 193S 194S 195S 1965 197S 1985 1995 2005 201S 2022 What creates dangerous winds The Diab lo winds that were forecast for Northern Ca lifornia usually come In the fall, bu t their behavior is hard to predict because mountains, valleys and even cloud formations can alter th eir speed and dlrecton. 8 The excessive Q Squeezing through wind can cause canyons and gaps of power tines to the coastal mountain topple and ranges, w ind speed is spa rk. setting dynamically Increased fires. to over 40 mph. ~ G 0 High pressure builds over the Great Basin. Winds flow In a clockwise direction ---+--◄ 8 Jet stream adds ----1---+-=-~':f! to downward push of strong winds UTAH 0 Winds come Into contact with warm Central Valley air, increasing its temperature. O High -pressure wind cascades over the Sierra mountains. The air is compressed. increasing temperature and reducing humidity. Central Valley 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 49 Historic and Cultural Resources Marin County has a large stock of historically significant homes, public buildings, and landmarks. To inventory these resources, the Marin County MJHMP Planning Team collected information from a number of sources. The California Department of Parks and Recreation Office of Historic Preservation (OHP) was the primary source of information. The OHP is responsible for the administration of federally and state mandated historic preservation programs to further the identification, evaluation, registration, and protection of California’s irreplaceable archaeological and historical resources. The OHP administers the National Register of Historic Places, the California Register of Historical Resources, California Historical Landmarks, and the California Points of Historical Interest programs. Each program has different eligibility criteria and procedural requirements. • The National Register of Historic Places is the nation’s official list of cultural resources worthy of preservation. The National Register is part of a national program to coordinate and support public and private efforts to identify, evaluate, and protect historic and archeological resources. Properties listed include districts, sites, buildings, structures, and objects that are significant in American history, architecture, archeology, engineering, and culture. The National Register is administered by the National Park Service, which is part of the U.S. Department of the Interior. • The California Register of Historical Resources program encourages public recognition and protection of resources of architectural, historical, archeological, and cultural significance and identifies historical resources for state and local planning purposes, determines eligibility for state historic preservation grant funding, and affords certain protections under the California Environmental Quality Act. The Register is the authoritative guide to the state’s significant historical and archeological resources. • California Historical Landmarks are sites, buildings, features, or events that are of statewide significance and have anthropological, cultural, military, political, architectural, economic, scientific or technical, religious, experimental, or other value. Landmarks #770 and above are automatically listed in the California Register of Historical Resources. • California Points of Historical Interest are sites, buildings, features, or events that are of local (city or county) significance and have anthropological, cultural, military, political, architectural, economic, scientific or technical, religious, experimental, or other value. Points designated after December 1997 and recommended by the State Historical Resources Commission are also listed in the California Register. It should be noted that as defined by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), any property over 50 years of age is considered a historic resource and is potentially eligible for the National Register. Thus, in the event that the property is to be altered, or has been altered, as the result of a major federal action, the property must be evaluated under the guidelines set forth by NEPA. Structural mitigation projects are considered alterations for the purpose of this regulation. The Marin County OA has 52 places on the National Register of Historic Places. Notable architects that helped create the Marin County historic places including W.G. Carnes, Frank Lloyd Wright, James A. Shore, William Mercer and Solomon Pierce. Prominent architectural styles found in the Marin County OA are Bungalow/Craftsman, Italianate and Mission/Spanish Revival. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 50 Table 1.8: Historic Sites in Marin County Name/Landmark State Plaque Number National Register (NR) State Landmark California Register Date Listed (NR) Jurisdiction Alexander- Acacia Bridge X 1/5/1984 Larkspur Angel Island, U.S. Immigration Station (529) X X X 10/14/1971 Tiburon William G. Barrett House X 6/17/1980 Sausalito Boyd House X 12/17/1974 San Rafael Bradford House X 6/6/1980 San Rafael Camilo Ynitia Adobe (210) X X Novato China Camp (924) X X X 4/26/1979 San Rafael The Dipsea Trail X 6/4/2010 Mill Valley/ Stinson Beach Dixie Schoolhouse X 12/26/1972 San Rafael Robert Dollar Estate X 12/11/1972 San Rafael Robert Dollar House X 7/23/1991 San Rafael Dolliver House X 5/22/1978 Larkspur Drakes Bay Historic and Archeological District X 10/16/2012 Point Reyes Station Lord Charles Snowden Fairfax Home (679) X X Fairfax Fashion Shop and Stephen Porcella House X 6/25/1980 Novato First Sawmill in Marin County (207) X X Mill Valley Forts Baker, Barry, and Cronkhite X 12/12/1973 Unincorporate d Marin County Golden Gate Bridge (974) X X Unincorporate d Marin County l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 51 Table 1.8: Historic Sites in Marin County Name/Landmark State Plaque Number National Register (NR) State Landmark California Register Date Listed (NR) Jurisdiction Green Brae Brick Kiln Yard (917) X X X 3/24/1978 Larkspur Griswold House X 9/12/1985 Sausalito Hamilton Army Air Field Discontiguous Historic District X 11/20/1998 Novato Larkspur Downtown Historic District X 10/7/1982 Larkspur Lighter Wharf Site (221) X X Bolinas Lyford's Stone Tower X 12/2/1976 Tiburon Benjamin and Hilarita Lyford House X 11/10/2000 Tiburon Marconi-RCA Bolinas Transmitting Station X 2/23/2018 Bolinas Marin Art and Garden Center X 6/6/2022 Ross Marin City Public Housing X 9/18/2017 Marin City Marin County Civic Center (999) X 7/17/1991 San Rafael Marinship Machine Shop X 12/20/2016 Sausalito Erskine B. McNear House X 1/11/1982 San Rafael Miller Creek School Indian Mound X 10/14/1971 San Rafael Mission San Rafael Arcangel (220) X X San Rafael Mount Tamalpais Mountain Theater X 2/2/2015 Mill Valley l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 52 Table 1.8: Historic Sites in Marin County Name/Landmark State Plaque Number National Register (NR) State Landmark California Register Date Listed (NR) Jurisdiction Muir Beach Archeological Site X 1/26/1981 Marin City Muir Woods National Monument X 1/9/2008 Mill Valley Olema Lime Kilns (222) X X X 10/8/1976 Olema Olema Valley Dairy Ranches Historic District X 4/9/2018 Olema Outdoor Art Club (922) X X X 11/16/1978 Mill Valley Pierce Ranch X 12/6/1985 Inverness Pioneer Paper Mill (552) X X Lagunitas Point Bonita Light Station X 9/3/1991 Sausalito Point Reyes Lifeboat Rescue Station, 1927 X 11/7/1985 Inverness Point Reyes Light Station X 9/3/1991 Point Reyes Point Reyes Naval Radio Compass Station X 6/29/2018 Inverness Point Reyes Peninsula Dairy Ranches Historic District X 10/29/2018 Inverness RCA Point Reyes Receiving Station X 2/23/2018 Inverness Rancho Olompali X 1/12/1973 Novato Valentine Rey House X 4/22/1982 Belvedere St. Hilary's Mission Church X 2/3/2020 Tiburon San Francisco and North Pacific Railroad Station House- Depot X 8/4/1995 Tiburon l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 53 Table 1.8: Historic Sites in Marin County Name/Landmark State Plaque Number National Register (NR) State Landmark California Register Date Listed (NR) Jurisdiction San Rafael Improvement Club X 3/29/1984 San Rafael Sausalito Woman's Club X 4/15/1993 Sausalito St. Vincent’s School for Boys (630) X X San Rafael Brock Schreiber Boathouse and Beach X 7/7/1978 Inverness Station KPH Operating Station X 7/24/1989 Marshall Station KPH, Marconi Wireless Telegraph Company of America X 7/24/1989 Marshall Steamship TENNESSEE Remains X 4/15/1981 Marin City Tocaloma Bridge X 9/14/2018 Tocaloma Tomales Presbyterian Church and Cemetery X 8/1/1975 Tomales West Point Inn X 12/22/2011 Mill Valley Table 1.8: Historic Sites in Marin County Source: California Office of Historic Preservation and the National Register of Historic Places l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 54 Fi g u r e 1. 17 : H i s t o r i c S i t e s i n M a r i n C o u n t y So u r c e : C a l i f o r n i a O f f i c e o f H i s t o r i c P r e s e r v a t i o n Lis.1 of properties in Mam on the National or Cali!omia Regl!iter I Tornales Pr~ytenan Clnm::tl an(! 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Dlstrtct 35 Defflve1J-1ou.se, .36 ~Hat10!!r • Acad.1 Bll~e 37 Mll V"<Cey Nr forc:e Sbtklrl Hl6totk: [1$1Jk:::1 38 OUtdOOf Aft Cl'Ub Jg flrl:il Samii In Mal"II COin)' .SO Eenjamln. aoo ttllama L)1tlftl Hoose d.1 Lytord'£ Stone Ta,,,'.et" d.2 Son franciliOO aml NOOll PacF.lc Rililrt:rall statlOO HOIIE@·Depo( .s.J Vale-rlt!he' Rey HOU5e 4A. Angel ISiand , U.S. lmirtgratroo staUon d.5 wIuam G. Barren i-1.0Use, casa Mam-on.a HolEf 46 $3'Jsa..,"1Q Central 611Slne61i Hlmirtc CU6trlct 47 Sa:us.a::ta woman'& C.IUb 48 Gr19A'Oliil Houlie 49 Forts. Bal.e.r. 6a1JY and Crontt,tt.e 50 ?cilrl.Bonl'.aUghlS'lillfOO. ~ .~ ,_-,-, 1·1 · "'.¾,, "M '""TT .L .J' ; (( \_ ~ ..... l ); , .r-rc••.r\':r, , ·~ ~-r--·,,.,, ·~ -1~ ...... '1 ..... if<'· ' ~_,,._l _~I . _ , I 1 '\_( l\{.~, ,-,1L .,.i\1/1 ·:,n, ""'\ ' /<J , \V--•-.....t I • ' 2 ... ·... .-i..._ ( -, .. -1, ',.;, , ',' '),--, 1''<._i, I ~ >~ :\ :~:_ ,_ :~·-/ ,'_:.,,·_,·;, L>' \ ~ / , ·•.~--..c~·-·•·';-~ -_ I ' '\ ., -. ,\ ·,~,.,p-_r. /.,,r--'\. /'l .,., 1 .-_..-l ,~·· J' .l t '.!...,,..'., 1::..:-,, /tC"" ' , .... ' Jr--J ,·· • ~-ii -\ V-, .... i • ~ I \/ I\ .. ., /1 v_, '-7 -· "" ,, "....,. _;_~ i"Nl?Cll;bQ\ 41 l~~e "W " )I. •11~·· \,j~ ... -~ .... \'ff ",.... HISTORIC RE SO U RC ES Lege n d c:J """'1ty Boondary D Cll)'B- = Hlgh,nys. arw:i Ma;or Roatls Streams :Paennlal --lntenrtnerll --i:;µheme-ra l Wa te r Bodies D La,,. □- Historic. Resources Lan n .ark Type Nation.al Reg i ster o r State Historical La ndmark """"'" CIJUreh h Fe<l«at h """' -· HOOse Sdloo\ Sdlool Pllva:e- Na.tonal ""'" Na::on.JJ 5ia-:e NilU:lnal Sla.r-! Na~ooal $ia.'2 Naklr\.3I 0!""'~1 -.---=~.--8M'es. ~'6iftll>-tlrVnOPCP ~(.DIDUIL~llll!PiCIIU 'Ol:.:,oun-,'(Y'M-11.IIOTJIUttaG-.c;QJlu,r,.LI.--IIK(l:,_ll,l,;l ~!'nl,.:O.OU:,PIIJUIOlll + h ·)> ~ ;;,c--< --< z~ Cf) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 55 1.5.4 NATIONAL RISK INDEX AND SOCIAL VULNERABILITY All communities in the U.S. experience natural hazards, and there is a wide range of environmental, social, and economic factors that influence each community’s risk to natural hazards. The likelihood that a community may experience a natural hazard can vary drastically, as can the associated consequences. Additionally, a community’s risk is influenced by many social, economic, and ecological factors. A community’s susceptibility to natural hazards varies from location to location. The 18 hazard types evaluated by the National Risk Index were chosen after reviewing FEMA-approved State Hazard Mitigation Plans for all 50 states in early 2016. Risk Calculation In the National Risk Index, risk is defined as the potential for negative impacts as a result of a natural hazard. The risk equation behind the National Risk Index includes three components: a natural hazards risk component, a consequence enhancing component, and a consequence reduction component. Expected Annual Loss (EAL) is the natural hazards risk component, measuring the expected loss of building value, population, and/or agriculture value each year due to natural hazards. Social Vulnerability is the consequence enhancing component and analyzes demographic characteristics to measure the susceptibility of social groups to the adverse impacts of natural hazards. Community Resilience is the consequence reduction component and uses demographic characteristics to measure a community’s ability to prepare for, adapt to, withstand, and recover from the effects of natural hazards. The Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience components are combined into one Community Risk Factor (CRF) which is multiplied by the EAL component to calculate risk using Equation 2. Figure 1.18: Generalized NRI Risk Equation Source: FEMA National Risk Index Technical Documentation, 2023 Risk Components Overview The Risk Index score is based on Social Vulnerability, Community Resilience, and Expected Annual Loss, with EAL based on Exposure, Annualized Frequency, and historic loss ratio (HLR) factors, for a total of five risk factors. Each risk factor contributes to either the likelihood or consequence aspect of risk and are classified as one of two risk types: risk based on geographic location, represented by the Community Risk Factor (CRF), or risk based on the nature and historical occurrences of natural hazards, represented by EAL. The five risk factors are summarized in Table 1.9. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ Equation 2: Generalized National Risk Index Risk Equation Risk = Expected Annual Loss x Community Risk Factor ( Social Vulnerability ) where Community Risk Factor= f C . R T ommumty esi ience 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 56 Table 1.9: Risk Components and Factors Risk Component Risk Factors Risk Factors Description Risk Contribution Risk Type Assignment Social Vulnerability Social Vulnerability Consequence Enhancer Consequence Geographic Risk Community Resilience Community Resilience Consequence Enhancer Consequence Geographic Risk EAL Exposure Expected Consequence Consequence Natural Hazard Risk EAL Annualized Frequency Probability of Occurrence Likelihood Natural Hazard Risk EAL HLR Expected Consequence Consequence Natural Hazard Risk Table 1.9: NRI Risk Components and Factors Source: FEMA Na�onal Risk Index Technical Documenta�on, 2023 Social Vulnerability According to the 2023 National Risk Index Technical Documentation, Social Vulnerability is broadly defined as the susceptibility of social groups to the adverse impacts of natural hazards, including disproportionate death, injury, loss, or disruption of livelihood. Social Vulnerability considers the social, economic, demographic, and housing characteristics of a community that influence its ability to prepare for, respond to, cope with, recover from, and adapt to environmental hazards. As a consequence-enhancing risk factor, the Social Vulnerability score represents the national percentile ranking of social vulnerability for a given county or Census tract in comparison to all other communities at the same level. The higher a county’s or Census tract’s Social Vulnerability is, the higher the risk. Because social vulnerability is unique to a geographic location—specifically, a county or Census tract—it is a geographic risk factor. Social Vulnerability Source Data Social Vulnerability source data provider: CDC/ATSDR SVI SVI is a location-specific assessment of social vulnerability that utilizes 16 socioeconomic variables (listed below) deemed to contribute to a community’s reduced ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from hazards. 1. Below 150% Poverty 2. Unemployed 3. Housing Cost Burden 4. No High School Diploma 5. No Health Insurance 6. Aged 65 & Older 7. Aged 17 & Younger 8. Civilian with a Disability 9. Racial & Ethnic Minority Status 10. Multi-Unit Structures 11. Mobile Homes 12. Crowding 13. No Vehicle 14. Group Quarters 15. Single-Parent Households l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 57 16. English Language Proficiency The dataset was acquired from the CDC/ASTDR website, and users looking for more information should consult CDC/ASTDR. Social Vulnerability Consideration for Hazard Mitigation Funding The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) has initiated the “Prepare California” grant program focused on building community resilience amongst vulnerable individuals living in the areas of the state most susceptible to natural disasters. The Prepare California Initiative is aimed at reducing long-term risks from natural disasters by investing in local capacity building and mitigation projects designed to protect communities. Prepare California leverages funds approved in Governor Gavin Newsom’s 2021-22 State Budget and is designed to unlock federal matching funds for community mitigation projects that vulnerable communities would otherwise be unable to access. This program is intended for communities that are the most socially vulnerable and at the highest risk for future natural hazard events. The state identified communities by prioritizing California census tracts according to their estimated hazard exposures and social vulnerability. The National Risk Index is a dataset and online tool to help illustrate the United States communities most at risk for 18 natural hazards: Avalanche, Coastal Flooding, Cold Wave, Drought, Earthquake, Hail, Heat Wave, Hurricane, Ice Storm, Landslide, Lightning, Riverine Flooding, Strong Wind, Tornado, Tsunami, Volcanic Activity, Wildfire, and Winter Weather. National Risk Index (NRI) hazards align with of eight of the twelve Marin County OA MJHMP Hazards. NRI data is not available for Dam Failure, Land Subsidence, Levee Failure, or Sea Level Rise. Table 1.10: NRI Hazards and Marin County MJHMP Hazards NRI Hazards Marin County OA MJHMP Hazards Earthquake Earthquake Riverine Flooding Flooding Coastal Flooding Flooding Wildfire Wildfire Landslide Debris Flow Drought Drought Heat Wave Severe Weather -Extreme Heat Tsunami Tsunami Tornado Severe Weather – Wind, Tornado Strong Wind Severe Weather – Wind, Tornado Table 1.10: NRI Hazards and Marin County OA MJHMP Hazards Source: FEMA Na�onal Risk Index 2023 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 58 The National Risk Index leverages available source data for Expected Annual Loss (EAL) due to these 18 hazard types, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience to develop a baseline relative risk measurement for each United States county and Census tract. These measurements are calculated using average past conditions, but they cannot be used to predict future outcomes for a community. The National Risk Index is intended to fill gaps in available data and analyses to better inform federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial decision makers as they develop risk reduction strategies. Calculating the Risk Index Risk Index scores are calculated using an equation that combines scores for Expected Annual Loss due to natural hazards, Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience: Risk Index = Expected Annual Loss (EAL) × Social Vulnerability ÷ Community Resilience Hazard Type Risk Index Hazard type Risk Index scores are calculated using data for only a single hazard type, and reflect a community's Expected Annual Loss value, community risk factors, and the adjustment factor used to calculate the risk value. Table 1.10 illustrates the NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for Marin County. Calculating Expected Annual Loss Expected Annual Loss scores are calculated using an equation that combines values for exposure, annualized frequency, and historic loss ratios for 18 hazard types: Expected Annual Loss = Exposure × Annualized Frequency × Historic Loss Ratio Community Risk Factor The CRF is a scaling factor that incorporates Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience in the National Risk Index to arrive at a distribution of risk values that better reflects the impacts communities experience from natural hazards. By design, the CRF ensures that higher Social Vulnerability and lower Community Resilience, relative to all other communities at the same level (county or Census tract), result in higher Risk Index values for a given level of EAL. To generate a CRF value for a community, its Social Vulnerability value is divided by its Community Resilience value, and this ratio is mapped to a triangular distribution with minimum 0.5, mode 1, and maximum 2 (see Equation 3). Table 1.11 illustrates the NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for Marin County. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Equation 3: CRF Equation . . ( Social Vulnerability ) Community Risk Factor = f C . R T ommumty esi ience where f(-)-> ,(a= 0.5,b = 2,c = 1) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 59 Table 1.11: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for Marin County Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $85,368,321 Relatively Low Very High 1.02 $86,293,309 98.7 Riverine Flooding $28,231,043 Relatively Low Very High 1.02 $30,230,864 99 Coastal Flooding $3,801,318 Relatively Low Very High 1.02 $4,161,749 89.5 Wildfire $2,436,548 Relatively Low Very High 1.02 $2,205,455 91.8 Landslide $770,102 Relatively Low Very High 1.02 $736,098 98.3 Drought $780,052 Relatively Low Very High 1.02 $645,893 89.7 Heat Wave $371,643 Relatively Low Very High 1.02 $375,597 74.3 Tornado $220,118 Rela�vely Low Very High 1.02 $213,534 19.4 Tsunami $34,530 Relatively Low Very High 1.02 $26,783 62.2 Strong Wind $13,888 Relatively Low Very High 1.02 $13,688 4.4 Table 1.11: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for Marin County Source: FEMA Na�onal Risk Index 2023 Table 1.12 illustrates the NRI Social Vulnerability & Community Resilience Risk Index for the top 20 highest risk communities within Marin County. Table 1.12: NRI Highest-Risk Communities in Marin County Rank Community Jurisdiction EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score 1 Census tract 06041112202 San Rafael $8,782,817 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $12,103,320 99.66 2 Census tract 06041112100 San Rafael $4,881,418 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $5,938,596 98.31 3 Census tract 06041106001 San Rafael $3,848,195 Very High Very High 1.4 $5,369,158 97.88 4 Census tract 06041121200 Corte Madera $4,505,215 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.13 $5,078,528 97.58 5 Census tract 06041103200 Novato $3,649,854 Relatively High Very High 1.37 $5,016,752 97.53 6 Census tract 06041112204 San Rafael $2,686,687 Very High Very High 1.59 $4,274,415 96.57 7 Census tract 06041102203 Novato $2,920,534 Relatively High Very High 1.35 $3,955,365 95.97 8 Census tract 06041106002 County (Santa Venetia) $3,505,637 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.1 $3,843,988 95.73 9 Census tract 06041119201 Larkspur $2,453,803 Relatively High Very High 1.27 $3,113,358 93.73 10 Census tract 06041119100 County (Kentfield) $3,547,224 Very Low Very High 0.86 $3,034,275 93.41 11 Census tract 06041110100 San Rafael $2,551,896 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $2,831,154 92.59 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 60 12 Census tract 06041117000 San Anselmo $2,891,493 Relatively Low Very High 0.96 $2,766,643 92.3 13 Census tract 06041120002 Larkspur $2,825,836 Relatively Low Very High 0.95 $2,698,515 91.98 14 Census tract 06041133000 County $2,925,471 Relatively Low Very High 0.93 $2,714,057 92.05 15 Census tract 06041104102 Novato $2,251,767 Relatively High Very High 1.19 $2,685,083 91.89 16 Census tract 06041111001 San Rafael $2,462,117 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $2,629,315 91.59 17 Census tract 06041121100 Corte Madera $3,328,198 Very Low Very High 0.78 $2,588,404 91.38 18 Census tract 06041101200 Novato $2,847,863 Relatively Low Very High 0.88 $2,518,616 90.98 19 Census tract 06041108202 San Rafael $1,698,202 Very High Very High 1.4 $2,380,050 90.12 20 Census tract 06041104300 County (Bel Marin Keys) $3,514,869 Very Low Very High 0.65 $2,287,081 89.47 Table 1.12: NRI Highest-Risk Communities in Marin County Source: FEMA Na�onal Risk Index 2023 1.5.5 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RISK IN MARIN COUNTY Link to Na�onal Risk Index Social vulnerability is an important factor to consider during all functions of emergency management (mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery). When we work to mitigate hazards, we are alleviating the stress a hazard may put on a community. If a community is considered more socially vulnerable, the residents’ risk of disaster is higher, therefore, to reduce risk, considering the social makeup of a community is critical. Many methodologies exist to aggregate census data into one simple number to represent social vulnerability; this should be seen as macro, supplemental data. It is also important to have input from all sections of a planning area that can truly represent the experiences, needs, and lived risk in a community. Metrics that create social vulnerability indices are meaningful to planning as they can signify a community’s capacity to mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from the impacts of a disaster. From mitigating your living environment to resist impacts, preparing a backup food source, to understanding alert and warning messages, and having insurance or obtaining government assistance after a disaster, all require time, financial resources, education and language abilities that not all of our community members have the luxury of. This is why looking at social vulnerability metrics is important to understanding where the needs are in Marin. For a high-level view to assess what communities in Marin are most at risk, the Marin County OA MJHMP chose to use the National Risk Index as it combines Expected Annual Loss (a measurement of expected economic loss), the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index (2020), and the Community Resilience Index (CRI) to rank census tracts’ risk across the nation. With the three metrics aggregated, we can understand, from a high level, what areas of Marin may be the most holistically impacted by hazards. The most recent version of the National Risk Index was released in 2023, making it one of the most up to date ways to assess hazard impact and social vulnerability. Furthermore, it is the best source for information for macro level assessments. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 61 Expected Annual Loss (EAL) is calculated using hazard exposure, annual frequency of a hazard and historic loss. As a whole, EAL is an attempt to represent average yearly economic loss resulting from natural hazards (i.e., losses to buildings, population, and agriculture). The county as whole is ranked as “relatively high” EAL; ranking in the 96-percentile in the nation. Census tracts are also categorized, see Figure 1.24 . Three census tracts in Marin, all in San Rafael, rank “Very High” for EAL. Most of the county is categorized as either “Relatively High” or “Relatively Moderate”, four classify as “Relatively Low”. One is assigned “Very Low” EAL, this is the Marin City census tract; an unincorporated community in southern Marin that has historically been underserved (highlighted with red outline in the following maps). The main contributing factor to this result is the perceived limited economic value and unrecorded economic losses due to disasters in Marin City. The economic impact of disasters in underserved communities has been historically under- or unreported, explaining how a commonly flooded area, such as Marin City, may be reflected as “Very Low” on the EAL. Disruptive flooding in Marin City happens during any significant rain, and this has been happening for over 80 years (KQED, 2022). Lack of reporting may be two-fold; limited connection to government and social capacity of residents to report. Impacts of frequent flooding in Marin City damages residents’ cars and homes, roadways, other structures; it puts people at risk of being swept away in flood water, can expose them to contaminated water; it cuts off residents’ ability to leave for work or errands and return home. All of this damage has direct economic consequences for the residents of Marin City and the County. Despite being classified as “Low Risk” on the EAL, the County of Marin acknowledges the impact disasters have on Marin City. In Figures 1.19, 1.20, and 1.21 the US Census Tracts are outlined in white, and color coded as indicated on the map legend. The City and Town Jurisdictions are outlined in black while the unincorporated area of Marin City is outlined in blue. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 62 Figure 1.19: Marin County NRI – Expected Annual Loss Source: FEMA Na�onal Risk Index 2023 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County/ National Risk Index Expected Annual Loss 101 P tal,, c 9 omc10f EMERGENCY •• • MANAGEMENT 118 V no , om \2 12\ San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area National Risk Index Census Tracts -Expected Annual Loss -Very High -Relatively High -Relative ly Moderate Relative ly Low Very Low No Expected Annual Lo ss es 0 10 --c=::::J ____ Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email : OEM _GIS @MarinCounty.org Date Pr inted : 09/13/23 Coun ty of Ma rin, Cal ifo rnia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmi n, SafeG raph , FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bu rea u of Lan d Manageme nt, EPA, NPS !Jan N 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 63 Figure 1.20: Marin County National Risk Index Map Source: FEMA Na�onal Risk Index 2023 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ National Risk Index -Very High -Relatively High Relatively Moderate -Relatively Low -Very Lo w -Insufficient Data Marin County / National Risk Index • omc10f EMERGENCY • MANAGEMENT 101 V no , om 12 p tal I< 118 121 \, ',, 37 \ -~~~~\ '-------....... Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM _GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Printed : 09/13/23 ----------- San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area !Jan N County of Marin, California State Parks, Esri, HERE , Garmin , SafeGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 64 When looking at the CDC’s SVI (see Figure 1.21), we see the most socially vulnerable residents reside in parts of Novato, parts of San Rafael, including in and around the Canal District, the Greenbrae neighborhood of Larkspur, and the unincorporated areas of Marin City and Santa Venetia. This aligns with what the County knows about Marin residents. However, discrepancy lies in the western, more rural area of the county. West Marin is comprised of seven villages, and other populated areas, that are distanced from the centralized resources in the eastern part of the county. At three local elementary school in West Marin (2022-2023 school year), the percentage of students eligible for free and reduced lunch program are, 62%, 41%, and 52%, a reflection of the financial capacity of local families. West Marin is home to many farms that may employ and house underrecognized workers that may not have taken part in a census survey, which is the basis for the SVI is calculation . In the fourth quarter of FY 2021/22 the bus routes traveling to West Marin (Rural Routes) were the only service category to have increased in ridership since pre-COVID (increase 0.1%; Marin Transit, 2022) showing the reliance of West Marin residents on public transportation; however, this data continues to adjust based upon the increase in alternate methods of mass transportation. Considering this, the County of Marin acknowledges that unique social factors in West Marin require different approaches than other parts of the County. Looking to the community resilience index (CRI) results, the data is only calculated at the county-level and compared across the nation. As a whole, Marin County is considered to have a “very high” ability to prepare for anticipated natural hazards, adapt to changing conditions, and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions when compared to the rest of the U.S. Unfortunately, this metric does not give us the distinct experiences of the diverse communities across Marin. When the Estimated Annual Loss Index (EAL) , Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), and Community Resilience Index are aggregated as one, final results of the National Risk Index show Marin County as a whole to have “Relatively High” risk, this is due to the financial implications a disaster may have on the county. When broken out by census tract, five tracts are in the highest category (“Very High Risk”), this matches generally with the same tracts that are ranked in as higher social vulnerability; parts of Novato, parts of San Rafael, including in and around the Canal District, the Greenbrae neighborhood of Larkspur, and unincorporated areas of Santa Venetia. However, Marin City is ranked as “Very Low” risk for the National Risk Index. Previous discussion highlighted why the Expected Annual Loss was low, but further discussion is required. As a County, we know Marin City should not be classified as “Very Low” on the NRI. Marin City residents, for example, only have one way in and out of their community and this road floods frequently, making it unsafe to cross and leave the community for work, school, medical resources. Additionally, there is only one “grocery” store, a Target, in Marin City. Both of these elements contribute to the vulnerability of residents as they may be unable to leave or return home and have limited access to groceries, relying on a single store’s supply chain. At the local elementary school in Marin City, 47% of students are eligible for free and reduced-price meals (2022 – 2023 school year), a reflection of the financial capacity of local families. All this means, we can expect the social and built capacity of Marin City to be limited. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 65 Figure 1.21: Marin County CDC Social Vulnerability Index Map Source: FEMA Na�onal Risk Index 2023 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / Social Vulnerability Index EMERGENCY e omcrn1 • MANAGEMENT E 'v .... rar10 ';onom IOI p ta 116 10• Recrea . '--,.____, ~--------------~ \.,, CDC Social Vunerability Index .... '-----------,, Rating of SVI for LHMP ',,, ____ Recrt. -Very High '-.._, -Relatively High 0 2 .5 "'--s---~10 Relatively Moderate Relatively Low Very Low --c:::::::::i---• Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM _GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Printed: 09/13/23 County of Mar in, California State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeG raph , FAO, METJ/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Man agement, EPA, NPS 12 121 37 San Pablo Ba y Wildlife Area !Jan N 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 66 The County of Marin has several outreach programs, specifically designed to reach and include traditionally underserved and underrepresented communities, including, Health and Human Services’ Community Response Teams, Office of Equity’s Participatory Budgeting program, and a community-created Race and Equity Plan. To receive feedback on the Marin County OA MJHMP, bilingual outreach was conducted through the Community Response Teams, which are led by local non-profits, representing four zones of Marin County. Local non-profits are selected for grant funding to be the Community Response Team lead. Additionally, County representatives went on the West Marin radio station, KWMR, to reach rural populations. While decision makers in Marin acknowledge that aggregate hazard and social vulnerability data can be informative for understanding what resources can be most beneficial to what area of the county, it is acknowledged that this data is not considered to be fully representative of Marin’s communities. It is critical to have a diversity of resident voices to represent a community’s needs and experiences. Furthermore, this data does not consider trends and anticipated changes. Climate change continues to increase risk in our communities, with heat, sea level rise, increased flood events, longer droughts, and more powerful wildfires. Additionally, Marin’s population is aging and growing to be less-White which will require the continued development of planning and response approaches to meet the needs of all residents. 1.5.6 ECONOMICS Marin County has a strong economic base which has changed significantly over the last century. The county’s economy was dominated by agriculture in the early part of its history. However, in recent years, Marin’s economy has seen increasing job growth in technology- related fields such as biotechnology, computer software, and multimedia. With several attractions including beaches and parks in Marin, tourism is important to Marin County’s economy. The Marin County resident workforce is predominantly white collar. Over 92% of the County’s residents age 25 or older have at least a high school diploma, compared with about 81% statewide; over 54% in this same age group have a bachelor’s degree. These higher-than- average educational levels directly correlate with a low poverty rate of 7.5%, compared with 15.3% statewide. The County’s largest employers include the County government, State Corrections Department, Marin General Hospital, Kaiser Permanente, Fireman’s Fund Insurance, Lucas Licensing, Fair Isaac Corporation, and College of Marin. Over half the working population is employed in professional, management, or financial business occupations, but most of these workers are employed outside the County in urban centers such as San Francisco and Oakland. The services, construction, and transportation industries combined employ less than a quarter of the resident population but are major employment sectors within the County. According to the Marin Economic Commission, service industries based in Marin are a major source of employment for residents of surrounding counties who commute to Marin. The agricultural sector also retains a strong cultural and historical presence. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 67 Table 1.13: Marin County Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over Industry Estimated Employment Percent Civilian employed population 16 years and over 18,676,721 100 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 394,881 2.1 Construction 1,235,586 6.6 Manufacturing 1,676,715 9.0 Wholesale trade 501,378 2.7 Retail trade 1,919,513 10.3 Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 1,071,181 5.7 Information 539,683 2.9 Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 1,107,961 5.9 Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 2,612,859 14.0 Educational services, and health care and social assistance 3,990,094 21.4 Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 1,835,141 9.8 Other services, except public administration 927,253 5.0 Public administration 864,476 4.6 Table 1.13: Marin County Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey 2021 Estimates 1.6 EXISTING AUTHORITIES, POLICIES, PROGRAMS, AND RESOURCES The jurisdictions represented in this plan are authorized by state law and qualify as separate governments. With the exception of the special districts, the jurisdictions all have a general plan that regulates current and future development through zoning based on described hazards. State law requires all California Cities and Counties to adopt general plans which include seven mandatory chapters: Land Use, Circulation, Housing, Conservation, Open Space, Noise and Safety. In addition to General Plans, each jurisdiction has an Emergency Action (or Operations) Plan and a Climate Action Plan. The jurisdictions each have a municipal code of ordinances to establish the minimum requirements to safeguard the public health, safety, and general welfare through structural strength, means of egress facilities, stability, access to persons with disabilities, sanitation, adequate lighting and ventilation and energy conservation, and safety to life and property from fire and other hazards attributed to the built environment; to regulate and control the demolition of all buildings and structures, and for related purposes. The jurisdictions all have planning departments that review proposed developments and new uses for conformance with policies plans and regulations and are served by law enforcement and fire departments. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 68 Resources vary greatly between jurisdictions according to general funds and staff, which are roughly proportionate to population size and commercial activity. Regardless of size, mitigation actions tend to leverage federal, state, and regional financial resources heavily in the form of matching grants. With the protection of plans and codes secured through statute, the expansion and improvement of policies and programs are dependent on the allocation of limited financial resources towards staff administration and implementation. An efficient means of improving and expanding programs is through shared resources. The many small jurisdictions in the County often do not have the resources to successfully accomplish the many requirements placed upon them, but through economies of scale they can provide better public service. One example of that is this Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan, which for most jurisdictions represents a much-needed update. For two of these jurisdictions this will be a new plan. See Section 4.0: Mitigation Strategy for further existing authorities, policies, programs, and resources in Marin County. 1.7 NEW ITEMS FOR THE 2023 MJHMP The 2018 Marin County OA MJHMP contained a detailed description of the planning process, a risk assessment of identified hazards for the Marin County planning area, and an overall mitigation strategy for reducing risk and vulnerability from these hazards. Since approval of the plan by FEMA, progress has been made by the Marin County OA on implementation of the mitigation strategy. As part of this 2023 MJHMP Update, a thorough review and update of the 2018 plan was conducted to ensure that this update reflects current community conditions and priorities in order to realign the overall mitigation strategy for the next five-year planning period. This MJHMP update involved a comprehensive review and update of each section of the 2018 plan and includes an assessment of the success of the participating communities in evaluating, monitoring and implementing the mitigation strategy outlined in the initial plan. Only the information and data still valid from the 2018 plan was carried forward as applicable into this MJHMP update. Table 1.14: Marin County OA MJHMP Participants 2018 and 2023 2018 Plan Participants 2023 Plan Participants 1 Marin County Marin County 2 City of Belvedere City of Belvedere 3 Town of Corte Madera Bolinas Community Public Utility District 4 City of Fairfax Town of Corte Madera 5 City of Larkspur Sanitary District No. 2 6 City of Mill Valley City of Fairfax 7 City of Novato City of Larkspur 8 Town of Ross Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District 9 City of San Rafael City of Mill Valley 10 Town of San Anselmo North Marin Water District 11 City of Sausalito City of Novato 12 City of Tiburon Town of Ross 13 North Marin Water District Town of San Anselmo l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 69 14 Marin County Flood Control and Water Conservation District City of San Rafael 15 City of Sausalito 16 Southern Marin Fire Department 17 City of Tiburon Table 1.14: Marin County OA MJHMP Participants 2018 and 2023 Also to be noted, the 2023 MJHMP update identifies key requirements for updating future plans: • Considers changes in vulnerability due to action implementation; • Documents success stories where mitigation efforts have proven effective; • Documents areas where mitigation actions were not effective; • Documents any new hazards that may arise or were previously overlooked; • Incorporates new data or studies on hazards and risks; • Incorporates new capabilities or changes in capabilities; • Incorporates growth and development-related changes to inventories; and • Incorporates new action recommendations or changes in action prioritization. These requirements and others as detailed throughout this plan were also addressed during this plan update process. As part of its 2023 Mitigation Strategy, Marin County and participating jurisdictions recognized that certain data, if available, would enhance the analyses presented in the risk assessment and utilized in the development of the mitigation strategy. New information and analyses contained throughout this plan update includes the following: • A new assessment of hazards affecting the OA was completed resulting in the inclusion of additional hazards including climate change. • An entire rework of the risk assessment for each identified hazard, including reworking the hazard profile and adding new hazard event occurrences; redoing the entire vulnerability analysis to add items identified below and updating the vulnerability assessment based on more recent hazard data as well as using the most current parcel and assessor data for the existing built environment. • An update of the flood hazard analysis utilizing the 2017 DFIRMs to include an updated analysis of the 100-year flood, an analysis of the 500-year flood, and an enhanced analysis of the localized/stormwater flooding problems affecting the planning area. • Development of an updated critical facility definition and a GIS mapping effort of critical facilities for the planning area. • Greater analysis was performed on the wildfire hazard utilizing CalFire, Fire Severity GIS data and updated CalFire fire hazard severity maps from 2022. • An enhanced vulnerability assessment which added an analysis of populations vulnerable to two priority hazards: flood and wildfire. • An enhanced vulnerability assessment which added an analysis of future development in the planning area and specific to each of the mapped hazards. • Incorporation and analysis of the new 2020 Census data was utilized for this MHHMP update. • An analysis of the incorporation of the 2023 MJHMP into other planning mechanisms in the Marin County OA was performed. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 70 Also, as required by the FEMA 2008 Local Multi-Hazard Mitigation Planning Guidance, the MJHMP an analysis of each jurisdictions' ongoing and continued compliance with the NFIP. 1.7.1 REVISION OF THE HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT This revised 2023 MJHMP now includes climate change in addition to the natural hazards facing our community. The risk assessment for each identified natural hazard was updated as determined by the Steering Committee. This included a reformulation of the hazard profiles and additions of new hazard occurrences. The vulnerability assessment was updated based on more recent hazard data. 1.7.2 CLIMATE CHANGE According to the California Natural Resource Agency (CNRA), climate change is already affecting California and is projected to continue to do so well into the foreseeable future. Current and projected changes include increased temperatures, sea level rise, a reduced winter snowpack, altered precipitation patterns, and more frequent storm events. Over the long term, reducing greenhouse gases can help make these changes less severe, but the changes cannot be avoided entirely. Unavoidable climate impacts result in a variety of secondary consequences including detrimental impacts on human health and safety, economic continuity, ecosystem integrity and provision of basic services. Climate change is being profiled in the 2023 Marin County Hazard Mitigation Plan as a standalone hazard while addressing each of the other natural hazards. Marin County is considering climate change issues when identifying future mitigation actions. 1.7.3 PROGRESS ON LOCAL MITIGATION EFFORTS There was success in the implementation of the mitigation actions as defined in the 2018 planning process, so the Steering Committee reassessed the need for those actions, looked at new actions and provided an explanation as to the methodology. Details of 2018 projects are included in section 4.7 but multiple projects have had success, including completion and ongoing of retrofitting of critical county-owned buildings (project #2), completed construction of a flood basin on Fairfax Creek (project #3), and obtaining a grant to design the McInnis Marsh Restoration Project (project #23). The City of Mill Valley adopted a soft-story wood frame retrofit ordinance, updated the fire code, implemented updated vegetation management requirements, and has emergency generators available for all critical city facilities. 1.8 PLAN ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE The MJHMP has been developed using the latest guidance documents from the FEMA as listed: • Local Mitigation Plan Review Guide dated October 11, 2011 and is structured similar to their Plan Review Tool. • Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide, April 19, 2023 • State Mitigation Planning Key Topics Bulletin: Mitigation Capabilities, November 2022 • State Mitigation Planning Key Topics Bulletin: Mitigation Strategy, October 2022 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 71 • State Mitigation Planning Key Topics Bulletins: Planning Process, October 2022 • State Mitigation Planning Key Topics Bulletin: Risk Assessment, October 2022 The Marin County OA Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan is organized as follows: • Section 1.0: Introduction • Section 2.0: Planning Process • Section 3.0: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment • Section 4.0 Mitigation Strategy • Section 5.0: Plan Review, Evaluation, and Implementation • Appendix A: Adoption Letters • Appendix B: Documentation of the Planning Process • Appendix C: Public Outreach Survey l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 72 SECTION 2.0: PLANNING PROCESS Local governments have the responsibility to protect the health, safety, and welfare of their community members. Proactive mitigation policies and actions reduce risk and create safer, more disaster-resilient communities. Mitigation is an investment in Marin’s safety and sustainability. Consider the critical importance of mitigation to: • Reducing the devastating impacts that disasters can have on community members, workers, and businesses in Marin. • Public safety and preventing loss of life and injury. • Reducing harm to existing and future development. • Preventing damage to a community’s unique economic, cultural, and environmental assets. • Minimizing operational downtime and accelerating recovery of communities, government and businesses after disasters. • Reducing the cost of disaster response and recovery and the exposure to risk for first responders. • Helping accomplish other community objectives, such as leveraging capital improvements, infrastructure protection, open space preservation, and economic resiliency. The purpose of mitigation planning is to identify local policies and potential actions that can be implemented over the long term to reduce risk and future losses from hazards. Mitigation policies and actions are identified based on a hazard risk assessment and the participation of a wide range of stakeholders and the public in the planning process. Benefits of mitigation planning include: • Identifying actions for risk reduction that are agreed upon by stakeholders and the public. • Focusing resources on the greatest risks and vulnerabilities. • Building partnerships by involving residents and visitors, organizations, and businesses. • Increasing education and awareness of threats and hazards, as well as their risks. • Communicating priorities to State and Federal officials. 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(b): In order to develop a more comprehensive approach to reducing the effects of natural disasters, the planning process shall include: 1) An opportunity for the public to comment on the plan during the drafting stage and prior to plan approval; 2) An opportunity for neighboring communities, local and regional agencies involved in hazard mitigation activities, and agencies that have the authority to regulate development, as well as businesses, academia and other private and non-profit interests to be involved in the planning process; and 3) Review and incorporation, if appropriate, of existing plans, studies, reports, and technical information. 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(1): [The plan shall document] the planning process used to develop the plan, including how it was prepared, who was involved in the process, and how the public was involved. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 73 • Aligning risk reduction with other community objectives. 2.1 PLANNING APPROACH The initial phase of a planning approach is to identify risk associated with threats and hazards and identify projects to reduce that risk. The Marin Operational Area understands its hazards, vulnerabilities, and risks and is working together and with the public, to develop strategies, policies, and actions necessary to reduce risk and protect residents and visitors. Marin’s hazard mitigation planning process engages the whole community and follows State and Federal planning guidance consistent with the requirements of the Stafford Act and the Federal Code of Federal Regulations (44 CFR Part 201). The six elements of hazard mitigation planning include: 1. Introduction and Community Overview 2. Planning Process 3. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 4. Development of The Mitigation Strategy 5. Plan Review, Evaluation, And Implementation 6. Plan Adoption This 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP is a comprehensive update of the 2018 Marin County OA MJHMP, which covered County of Marin the Cities of Belvedere, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, San Rafael and Sausalito; the Towns of Corte Madera, Fairfax, Ross, San Anselmo and Tiburon; and the special districts of Bolinas Community Public Utility District, Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District, North Marin Water District, Sanitary District No. 2, and Southern Marin Fire Protection District. FEMA approved the 2018 plan on December 27, 2018, and the plan is expiring on December 27, 2023. The current update meets federal requirements for updating hazard mitigation plans on a five-year cycle. It represents the third iteration of the Marin County Hazard Mitigation Plan, which was initially developed as a plan in 2013. Eighty-three planning partners have participated in the 2023 update, as listed in Table 2.2 and Table 2.4. The 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP identifies the process that Marin County will use to develop their roles and responsibilities in hazard mitigation planning. The 2023 Hazard Mitigation Plan is the principal guide for Marin County to identify hazards and mitigation projects that will enhance the resilience of Marin communities from natural disasters. The planning team used the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan Review Guide to ensure the Marin County OA MJHMP includes all necessary components. The process followed to develop the 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP had the following primary objectives: • Secure grant funding and select a consultant. • Establish a planning partnership. • Define the planning area and jurisdiction. • Establish a steering committee and planning team. • Coordinate with stakeholders and agencies. • Review existing programs. • Engage the public. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 74 These objectives are discussed in the following sections. 2.2 GRANT FUNDING AND CONSULTANT SELECTION This planning effort was supplemented by a FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance grant in fiscal year 2019. Marin County OEM was the sub-applicant agent for the grant. It covered 75 percent of the cost for development of this plan; the County and planning partners covered the balance through in-kind contributions. In November 2022, Marin County contracted for consultant services to assist in the update to their 2018 Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan. After a comprehensive review process, Preparative Consulting was selected to partner with representatives from Marin County and its participating jurisdictions to complete a comprehensive update of the 2018 Marin County OA MJHMP 2.3 ESTABLISH A PLANNING PARTNERSHIP As the lead organization, Marin County Fire Department Office of Emergency Management (OEM) established a Steering Committee with representatives from the County, Cities, Towns, and special districts. These participants were engaged to lead the planning process based on the contribution and input from relevant stakeholders and the public. Representatives should have the authority and knowledge to identify and commit resources during the planning process and have subject matter knowledge on local communities, hazards, and risks. The majority of Marin County is unincorporated sparsely populated rural and protected lands. Most of the 262,000 county population is consolidated into the Eastern portion of the county. The County of Marin has a unique populated distribution where the participating planning jurisdictions and district’s planning areas are located in an area of the county with similar climate, similar topography, and are exposed to many of the same hazards. Only three jurisdictions, Larkspur, Ross, and San Anselmo, are not coastal jurisdictions and are not impacted by Tsunami or Sea Level Rise. The Marin County OA MJHMP Steering Committee and broader Planning Team approached the development of the Marin County OA MJHMP and the associated jurisdictional and district profiles from a coordinated and collaborative planning and public engagement unity of effort. The Steering Committee felt a unified effort, led by the Marin County OEM, would be the most effective approach for this planning process. This approach allowed the small jurisdictions and districts with limited staffing and resources to take advantage of the combined efforts of the County and other jurisdictions to reach a broader segment of each of their populations and do so in a way to ensure greater equity and inclusion of the public in this planning process. Extensive and coordinated public outreach was done involving all participating jurisdictions and districts with an eye towards equity, inclusion, openness, accessibility, and ensuring they meet the population where they live, work, or recreate to provide the public convenience of access and ease of participation in this planning process. Participating jurisdictions worked through multiple sessions and independently on: • Facilitation of the planning process, including multi-agency collaboration and partnering. • Identification of the primary local stakeholders – formation of the Marin County OA hazard mitigation Planning Team and hazard mitigation Steering Committee. • Review of the 2018 Marin County OA MJHMP. • Establishment of updated planning goals and objectives. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 75 • Establishment of jurisdiction-specific hazard mitigation work groups to facilitate internal planning activities. • Organization of jurisdiction/agency-specific hazard mitigation Working Groups. • Revision of jurisdictional demographic and organizational data, and reformatting of information presentation. • Identification and refined assessment of real or potential hazards and threat conditions. • Development of prioritized hazard mitigation strategies and projects, keyed to identified hazards. • Compliance with the Disaster Mitigation Act requirements as established by federal regulations and following FEMA’s planning guidance. • Prioritization of equity and engagement of the whole community with a focus on engaging hard-to-reach populations and providing translation and interpretation services in our public outreach and input process. • Production of the draft and final plan documents; and • Coordination with the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) and FEMA Region IX plan reviews. 2.4 DEFINE THE PLANNING AREA AND PARTICIPATING JURISDICTIONS The planning area and participating jurisdictions and organizations were defined to consist of unincorporated Marin County, the Cities of Belvedere, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, San Rafael and Sausalito; the towns of Corte Madera, Fairfax, Ross, San Anselmo and Tiburon; the Bolinas Public Utility District, the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District, the Sanitary District #2, the Southern Marin Fire Protection District, and the North Marin Water District. All participating jurisdictions are within the geographical boundary of Marin County and have jurisdictional authority within this planning area. A map showing the geographic boundary of the defined planning area for this plan update is provided in Chapter 3, along with a description of planning area characteristics. This unity of effort approach allowed the Steering Committee to establish a more robust Planning Team representing local, countywide, regional, state, and federal stakeholders servicing the Marin County planning area. These stakeholders were in a unique position to provide informed and specific information and recommendations on hazard mitigation goals and actions, as well as population needs and social vulnerability for each of the jurisdictional and district planning areas. This united effort allowed the planning team to attend fewer meetings than they would have been required to attend if they were required to attend separate meetings for each participating jurisdiction and district. The reduced number of meetings allowed the planning team the opportunity and time to provide more detailed and thoughtful contributions to the planning effort. Each jurisdiction wishing to join the planning partnership/Steering Committee was asked to provide a “letter of intent to participate” that designated a point of contact for the jurisdiction and confirmed the jurisdiction’s commitment to the process, understanding of expectations, and commitment to adopt the approved Hazard Mitigation plan by their governing body. These expectations are detailed in section 2.5 STEERING COMMITTEE. The jurisdictions participating in the 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP were represented by: l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 76 Table 2.1: 2023 MJHMP Participating Jurisdictions Jurisdiction Representative Title 1 Marin County Hannah Tarling Emergency Management Coordinator 2 Marin County Chris Reilly OEM Project Manager 3 City of Belvedere Irene Borba Director of Planning 4 City of Larkspur Loren Umbertis Public Works Director 5 City of Mill Valley Patrick Kelly Director of Planning and Building 6 City of Novato Dave Jeffries Consultant/JPSC 7 City of San Rafael Quinn Gardner Deputy Emergency Services Coord. 8 City of Sausalito Kevin McGowan Director of Public Works 9 Town of Corte Madera and Sanitary District #2 RJ Suokko Director of Public Works 10 Town of Fairfax Loren Umbertis Public Works Director 11 Town of Ross Richard Simonitch Public Works Director 12 Town of San Anselmo Sean Condry Public Works & Building Director 13 Town of Tiburon Sam Bonifacio Assistant Planner 14 Bolinas Community Public Utility District Jennifer Blackman General Manager 15 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Dale McDonald Administrative Services Manager 16 North Marin Water District Eric Miller Asst. General Manager 17 Southern Marin Fire District Marshall Nau Fire Marshall/South Marin Fire Dist. Table 2.1: 2023 Marin OA MJHMP Participating Jurisdictions 2.5 STEERING COMMITTEE The Steering Committee led the planning process based on the contribution and input from the whole community stakeholders who identified the community’s concerns, values, and priorities. Preparative Consulting coordinated and facilitated the 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP update with the assistance of the Marin County Office of Emergency Management and acted as the central point of contact for all partnering jurisdictions and organizations. Preparative Consulting developed the draft plan in conjunction with and at the direction of the hazard mitigation Steering Committee members and served as a liaison between Marin County and the State regarding plan revision. Table 2.2: 2023 MJHMP Steering Committee Members No. Agency Point of Contact Title 1 Belvedere Laurie Nilsen Emergency Services Coordinator 2 Belvedere Rebecca Markwick Planning Director 3 Belvedere Samie Malakiman Associate Planner 4 Bolinas Com. PUD Jennifer Blackman General Manager 5 Bolinas Fire Protection Dist Stephen Marcotte Assistant Fire Chief 6 Central Marin Fire District Matt Cobb Battalion Chief/Fire 7 Central Marin Fire District Ezra Colman Battalion Chief/Fire 8 Central Marin Fire District Rubin Martin Fire Chief 9 Corte Madera RJ Suokko Director of Public Works 10 Corte Madera Chris Good Senior Civil Engineer 11 Sanitary District No. 2 RJ Suokko Director of Public Works 12 Fairfax Loren Umbertis Public Works Director l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 77 13 Fairfax Mark Lockaby Building Official 14 Larkspur Dan Schwarz City Manager 15 Larkspur Julian Skinner Public Works Director/ City Engineer 16 Larkspur Robert Quinn Public Works Superintendent 17 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Dale McDonald Administrative Services Mgr. 18 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Greg Pease Safety Manager 19 Marin County Steven Torrence Director of Emergency Management 20 Marin County Chris Reilly OEM Manager 21 Marin County Woody Baker-Cohn Senior Emergency Management Coordinator 22 Marin County Leslie Lacko Community Development Agency 23 Marin County Hannah Lee Senior Civil Engineer 24 Marin County Felix Meneau Project Mgr./ FCWCD 25 Marin County Julia Elkin Department of Public Works 26 Marin County Beb Skye Department of Public Works 27 Marin County Scott Alber Fire 28 Marin County Lisa Santora Deputy Public Health Officer, Marin Health & Human Services 29 Marin County Kathleen Koblick Marin Health & Human Services 30 Marin County Amber Davis Public Health Preparedness 31 Mill Valley Patrick Kelly Director of Planning & Building Department 32 Mill Valley Ahmed A Aly Engineering Project Manager 33 Mill Valley Jared Barrilleaux Deputy Director of Engineering 34 Mill Valley Daisy Allen Senior Planner 35 Southern Marin Fire District Tom Welch Deputy Chief/South Marin Fire Dist. 36 Southern Marin Fire District Marshall Nau Fire Marshall/South Marin Fire Dist. 37 North Marin Water District Eric Miller Asst. General Manager 38 North Marin Water District Tim Fuette Senior Engineer 39 Novato David Dammuller Engineering Services Mgr. 40 Novato Dave Jeffries Consultant/JPSC 41 Ross Richard Simonitch Public Works Director 42 San Anselmo Sean Condry Public Works & Building Director 43 San Anselmo Erica Freeman Building Official 44 San Anselmo Scott Schneider Asst. PW Director 45 San Rafael Quinn Gardner Deputy Emergency Services Coord. 46 San Rafael Cory Bytof Sustainability 47 San Rafael Joanna Kwok Senior Civil Engineer 48 San Rafael Kate Hagemann Climate Adaptation & Resilience Planner 49 Sausalito Andrew Davidson Senior Engineer/ DPW 50 Sausalito Kevin McGowan Director of Public Works 51 Sausalito Brandon Phipps Planning Director 52 Sausalito Ali Iqbal Assistant Civil Engineer/ Public Works 53 Tiburon Sam Bonifacio Assistant Planner 54 Tiburon Dina Tasini Director of Community Development 55 Tiburon Laurie Nilsen Emergency Services Coordinator Table 2.2: Marin County OA MJHMP Steering Committee Members l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 78 Table 2.3: Preparative Consulting Planning Team Members No. Agency Point of Contact Title 1 Preparative Consulting Paul Bockrath Project Lead/Planner 2 Preparative Consulting Candise Bockrath Project Manager 3 Preparative Consulting David M. Block Lead Planner Table 2.3: Marin County OA MJHMP Preparative Consulting Planning Team Members The Steering Committee met and reviewed the mitigation recommendations and strategies identified within this plan. Each participating local jurisdiction established a mechanism for the development and implementation of jurisdictional mitigation projects, as identified within this plan and associated locally specific supporting documents. As deemed necessary and appropriate, participating jurisdictions will organize local mitigation groups to facilitate and administer internal activities. The Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA) planning regulations and guidance stress that each local government seeking FEMA approval of their mitigation plan must participate in the planning process. The Steering Committee assisted with the planning process in the following ways: • Attending and participating in the Steering Committee meetings. • Identification of potential mitigation actions. • Updating the status of mitigation actions from the 2018 Marin County OA MJHMP. • Collecting and providing other requested data (as available). • Making decisions on plan process and content. • Reviewing and providing comments on plan drafts; including annexes. • Informing the public, local officials, and other interested stakeholders about the planning process and providing opportunity for them to be involved and provide comment. • Coordinating, and participating in the public input process. • Coordinating the formal adoption of the plan by the governing boards. 2.5.1 STEERING COMMITTEE PLANNING PROCESS The Steering Committee met monthly to develop the plan. Email notifications were sent out to each Steering Committee member to solicit their participation in the Steering Committee meetings. The meetings were conducted using a Zoom platform videoconferencing. Meeting attendees signed in using the chat feature to record their attendance. The Steering Committee agreed to make and pass plan-based general policy recommendations by a vote of a simple majority of those members present. The Steering Committee will also seek input on future hazard mitigation programs and strategies from the mitigation planning team by focusing on the following: • Identify new hazard mitigation strategies to be pursued on a state and regional basis, and review the progress and implementation of those programs already identified. 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(a)(3): Mul�-jurisdic�onal plans may be accepted, as appropriate, as long as each jurisdic�on has par�cipated in the process and has officially adopted the plan. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 79 • Review the progress of the Hazard Mitigation program and bring forth community input on new strategies. • Coordinate with and support the efforts of the Marin County OEM to promote and identify resources and grant money for implementation of recommended hazard mitigation Strategies within local jurisdictions and participating public agencies. During the planning process, the Steering Committee communicated through videoconferencing, face-to-face meetings, email, telephone conversations, and through the County website. The County website included information for all stakeholders on the MJHMP update process. Hannah Tarling of the Marin County Office of Emergency Management and Preparative Consulting established a Microsoft 365 SharePoint folder which allowed the Steering Committee members and Marin OEM and Preparative Consulting to share planning documents and provide a format for the planning partners to submit completed documents and access other planning related documents and forms. Draft documents were also posted on this platform and the Marin County OES website so that the Steering Committee members and the public could easily access and review them. 2.5.2 STEERING COMMITTEE TASKS The Steering Committee engaged in research to identify, document, and profile all the hazards that have, and could have, an impact on the planning area. The Steering Committee also conducted a capability assessment to review and document the planning area’s current capabilities to mitigate the risk and vulnerability of each participating jurisdiction to each identified hazard. By collecting information about existing government programs, policies, regulations, ordinances, and emergency plans, the Steering Committee could assess those activities and measures already in place that contribute to mitigating some of the risks and vulnerabilities identified. Specific tasks were identified for the Steering Committee in order to ensure that project goals for the MJHMP revision were undertaken and completed. The following represents those primary Steering Committee tasks: • Coordinate tasks and activities with the Marin County OEM to develop all-hazards disaster mitigation plan and oversee the planning process. • Prioritize hazards vs. resources. • Select highest and best mitigation recommendations and develop those recommendations for further action by Marin County and the Cities/Towns and special districts. • Review planning drafts, recommendations and updates. • Develop and implement long and short term goals. • Integrate the plan with all phases of comprehensive emergency management planning. • Provide for the implementation of committee decisions. • Encourage, coordinate and provide a methodology for the implementation of public input. • Provide for the implementation of Steering Committee decisions. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 80 2.5.3 STEERING COMMITTEE FUTURE TASKS Specific future tasks were identified for the Steering Committee in order to ensure that project goals for the MJHMP revision were continued. The following represents those primary Steering Committee future tasks: • Define the mitigation constraints that the Marin County OA is required to follow in implementing recommendations from the Steering Committee. o Protection of sensitive information o Apply budget constraints to recommended hazard mitigation strategies o Apply state policy and legal constraints to mitigation strategies brought forward by the Steering Committee. • Meet on an annual basis to review the work of and contribute to the Steering Committee activities. • Bring forth the concerns and views of the community to the Steering Committee for consideration in the ongoing hazard mitigation planning process. • Consider utilizing the California Department of Public Health Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) to provide public health leaders and emergency managers with a rapid community assessment to determine household-based information about a community following a disaster. • Assist in informing the public and community of the hazard mitigation strategies recommended by the Steering Committee. • Define the constraints for implementation of prioritized mitigation strategies within the authorities, laws, and regulations of the local entities existing within the Marin County OA. • Carry out the goals and objectives of the Marin County OA MJHMP. • Support and review the input from meetings of the adjunct members with individuals, agencies and jurisdictions. • Assure that the public is kept informed of changing strategies and implementation actions periodically. 2.6 COORDINATION WITH STAKEHOLDERS AND AGENCIES Opportunities for involvement in the planning process must be provided to neighboring communities, local and regional agencies involved in hazard mitigation, agencies with authority to regulate development, businesses, academia, and other private and nonprofit interests (44 CFR, Section 201.6(b)(2)). Early in the planning process, the Steering Committee determined that data collection, risk assessment analyses, mitigation strategy development, and plan approval would be greatly 44 CFR Requirement 201.6(b): An open public involvement process is essen�al to the development of an effec�ve plan. In order to develop a more comprehensive approach to reducing the effects of natural disasters, the planning process shall include: (2) An opportunity for neighboring communi�es, local and regional agencies involved in hazard mi�ga�on ac�vi�es, and agencies that have the authority to regulate development, as well as businesses, academia and other private and non-profit interests to be involved in the planning process. (3) Review and incorpora�on, if appropriate, of exis�ng plans, studies, reports, and technical informa�on. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 81 enhanced by inviting other local, state and federal agencies and organizations to participate in the process. Based on their involvement in hazard mitigation planning, their landowner status in the County, and/or their interest as a neighboring jurisdiction, representatives from the following groups were invited to participate on the Planning Team: Table 2.4: Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Team Members No. Agency Point of Contact Title Special Districts & Partner Agencies 1 Bolinas Fire Protection District Stephen Marcotte Assistant Fire Chief 2 County of Sonoma Jeffrey DuVall Deputy Director, County of Sonoma OEM 3 County of Marin Disability Access Program Laney Davidson Disability Access Manager/ ADA Coordinator 4 County of Marin Disability Access Program Peter Mendoza Disability Access Manager/ ADA Coordinator 5 Emergency Medical Services Chris Le Baudour EMS Authority 6 Fire Departments Jason Weber Fire Chief 7 Golden Gate Bridge, Highway & Transportation District Daniel Rodriguez Security, Emergency Management Specialist 8 Golden Gate Bridge, Highway & Transportation District Dennis Mulligan General Manager & CEO, 9 Marin City Climate Resilience and Health Justice Terrie Green Executive Director 10 Marin Center for Independent Living Peter Mendoza Director of Advocacy and Special Projects 11 Marin City Community Services District Juanita Edwards Interim General Manager 12 Marin County Community Development Agency Leslie Lacko Community Development Agency 13 Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District Garry Lion Advisory Board Member 14 Marin County Office of Education Michael Grant Director, Marin County Office of Education 15 Marin County Parks Max Korten General Manager and Director 16 PG&E Mark Van Gorder Government Affairs, North Bay 17 PG&E Ron Karlen PG&E Public Safety Specialist 18 Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) Jennifer McGill Chief of Police 19 Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM) Anne Richmond Executive Director 20 Willow Creek School Itoco Garcia Superintendent State Agencies 21 Cal OES - ESC Sarah Finnigan Cal OES, Sr. Emergency Services Coordinator 22 Cal OES, Division of Safety of Dams Danielle Jessup Coordinator/ Dam Safety Planning Division 23 California Department of Public Health Svetlana Smorodinsky Disaster Epidemiologist/ Environmental & l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 82 Table 2.4: Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Team Members No. Agency Point of Contact Title Occupational Emergency Preparedness Team 24 California Department of Public Health Patrice Chamberlain Health Program Specialist II / Environmental & Occupational Emergency Preparedness Team 25 California Department of Water Resources Julia Ekstrom, PhD Supervisor, Urban Unit Water Use Efficiency Branch 26 Caltrans Trang Hoang Senior Transportation Engr/ Office of Advance Planning 27 Caltrans Markus Lansdowne Caltrans D4 Emergency Coordinator Federal Agencies 27 Army Corps of Engineers Jessica Ludy Flood Risk Management, Equity, and Environmental Justice 28 National Park Service Stephen Kasierski OneTam 29 US Coast Guard LT Tony Solares Sector SF Waterways Safety Branch 30 US Coast Guard MST1 Brandon M. Ward Emergency Management Specialist 31 US Coast Guard LT William K. Harris USCG SEC San Francisco Table 2.4: Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Team Members Coordination with key agencies, organizations, and advisory groups throughout the planning process allowed the Planning Team to review common problems, develop policies and mitigation strategies, as well as identifying any conflicts or inconsistencies with regional mitigation policies, plans, programs and regulations. For example, in conjunction with the kick off meetings, several key stakeholder/agency conversations were held at the beginning of the project to solicit input and to identify and obtain data at the beginning of the project. This included initial discussions with: Cal OES, DWR, Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District and Marin County Fire Agencies. Coordination with these key agencies continued throughout the project. Representatives from Cal OES attended most of the Planning Team meetings where they helped present, answered questions and provided input and support on the MJHMP process and plan requirements and provided details as requested on other related programs, such as FEMA grant programs. Through their attendance at Planning Team meetings, these key stakeholders and agencies provided ongoing information and data as requested to support the overall plan development process. These key agencies, organizations, and advisory groups received meeting announcements, agendas, and minutes by e-mail throughout the plan update process. They supported the effort by attending meetings or providing feedback on issues. All the agencies were provided with an opportunity to comment on this plan update and were provided with a copy of the plan to review and offer edits and revisions. They were also provided access to the Marin County OEM hazard mitigation plan website to review all planning documents and hazard mapping tools. Each was sent an e-mail message informing them that draft portions of the plan were available for review. In addition, the complete draft plan was sent to the California Governor’s Office of l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 83 Emergency Services (Cal OES) and FEMA Region IX for a pre-adoption review to ensure program compliance. In addition, through the public meetings conducted at the beginning of the planning process, members of the planning team, the public, and other key stakeholders were invited to participate in the planning process through public outreach activities. The Steering Committee used technical data, reports, and studies from the following agencies and groups: • California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services • California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection • California Department of Finance • California Department of Fish and Game • California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection • California Department of Water • California Geological Survey • California Register of Historic Places • Federal Emergency Management Agency • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association • National Performance of Dams Program • National Register of Historic Places • National Resource Conservation Service • National Weather Service • United States Army Corps of Engineers • United States Bureau of Land Management • United States Department of Agriculture • United States Drought Impact Reporter • United States Farm Service Agency • United States Forestry Service • United States Geological Survey • Western Regional Climate Center Several opportunities were provided for the groups listed above to participate in the planning process. At the beginning of the planning process, invitations were extended to these groups to actively participate on the Planning Team. Participants from these groups assisted in the process by providing data directly as requested in worksheets or through data contained on their websites or as maintained by their offices. Further as part of the public outreach process, all groups were invited to attend the public meetings and to review and comment on the plan prior to submittal to Cal OES and FEMA. The following planning meetings were held with the planning team: l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 84 Table 2.5: Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings No. Date Attendees Meeting Planning Meeting Objectives 1 10/26/22 Steering Committee Project Overview Meeting • Plan Overview – Steps and Timeline • Planning Process • Steering Committee Role 2 11/9/22 Steering Committee Steering Committee Kickoff Meeting • Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview • Plan Overview – Steps and Timeline • Community Overview • Planning Process • Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment • Stakeholders and Planning Team Identification 3 12/6/22 Steering Committee, Planning Team Planning Team Kickoff Meeting • Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview • Plan Overview – Steps and Timeline • Community Overview • Planning Process • Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 4 02/07/23 Steering Committee Steering Committee Hazard Profile Meeting • Jurisdictional Letter of Commitment • Identify Planning Team Members • Hazard Risk Ranking Worksheets • Jurisdictional Profiles • Jurisdictional/ District Capability Assessment • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update 5 03/07/23 Steering Committee/ Planning Team Planning Team Public Outreach Strategy Meeting • Planning Goals and Objectives • Hazard Risk Ranking Worksheets • Jurisdictional Profiles • Jurisdictional/ District Capability Assessment • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update • Public Outreach Strategy l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 85 Table 2.5: Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings No. Date Attendees Meeting Planning Meeting Objectives 6 04/04/23 Steering Committee Steering Committee Meeting • HMGP (DR-4683) Funding Timeline • Public Outreach • Planning Goals and Objectives • Jurisdictional Hazard Vulnerability Maps • Jurisdictional Profiles • Jurisdictional/ District Capability Assessment • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update 7 04/13/23 General Public, Steering Committee, Planning Team Public Outreach Town Hall Meeting #1 (In-person and virtual on Zoom) Thursday, 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm Marin County BOS Chambers • Meeting translated live in Spanish with 29 language subtitle capability for virtual participants. • Meeting also interpreted in American Sign Language • Meeting recorded and posted on Hazard Mitigation website. • Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview • Planning Process • Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment • Planning Goals and Objectives • Hazard Mitigation Projects • Community Input 8 04/29/23 General Public, Steering Committee, Planning Team Public Outreach Town Hall Meeting #2 (In-person and virtual on Zoom) Saturday, 10:00 am to 11:30 am Marin County Health and Wellness Center • Meeting translated live in Spanish with 29 language subtitle capability for virtual participants. • Meeting also interpreted in American Sign Language • Meeting recorded and posted on Hazard Mitigation website. • Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview • Planning Process • Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment • Planning Goals and Objectives • Hazard Mitigation Projects • Community Input l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 86 Table 2.5: Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings No. Date Attendees Meeting Planning Meeting Objectives 9 05/31/23 Steering Committee Steering Committee Hazard Ranking Meeting • HMGP (DR-4683) Funding Timeline • Public Outreach Status • Jurisdictional Hazard Vulnerability Maps • OEM Overview of Hazard Maps and Marin Maps • Marin Co. MJHMP Risk Assessment Tool Overview • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update • Hazard Working Groups 10 06/27/23 Steering Committee, Planning Team Marin County Planning Team Meeting • HMGP (DR-4683) & BRIC Grant Funding Timeline • Public Outreach Status • Jurisdictional Hazard Risk Assessment Tool • OEM Overview of Hazard Maps and Marin Maps • Marin County Hazards over the Last 5-Years • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update • 2023 Hazard Mitigation Projects/Capital Improvement Projects • Hazard Working Groups 11 07/01/23- 09/01/23 Steering Committee Members Steering Committee Members Plan Development Sessions • Individual phone or conference calls with planning jurisdictions and districts to answer specific questions and assist them in developing their profile annex. 12 11/27/23 Steering Committee, Planning Team Marin County Final Planning Team Meeting • Presentation and review of the Draft Marin County OA MJHMP and Jurisdictional/District Annexes 13 11/28/23 General Public Public Outreach Presentation on Marin County Office of Emergency Management Website • Presentation and review of the Draft Marin County OA MJHMP and Jurisdictional/District Annexes. • Opportunity for public comment and questions and answers. Table 2.5: Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 87 2.7 REVIEW AND INCORPORATION OF EXISTING PLANS Planning efforts are supportive of each other. Information from the Marin OA MJHMP is incorporated into and used to support the City, County, and Town General Plans, Emergency Operations Plans, and continuity plans. Many of these planning efforts incorporate all Marin County jurisdictions and Special Districts. The development of this plan incorporated information from the following existing plans, studies, reports, and initiatives as well as other relevant data from neighboring communities and other jurisdictions: All Jurisdictions (Marin County OA) • Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) 2010 multi- jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan for the San Francisco Bay Area, 2010 Update of 2005 Plan • Marin Map- online mapping tool includes hazard data, assets, zoning, current FEMA flood maps www.marinmap.org • FEMA data via Flood Insurance Studies, BureauNet • Marin County - Community Wildfire Protection Plan(CWPP) www.firesafemarin.org/cwpp • Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan, 2020. • Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment • DSOD dam safety information • ABAG earthquake: https://abag.ca.gov/our-work/resilience/data-research/earthquake • 2018 State of California Hazard Mitigation Plan • Marin Stormwater Resource Plan 2017 • The Scoop on Marin County Sewer Systems: Part I 2013/2014 Marin County Civil Grand Jury • U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census • The studies detail flood depths and base flood elevations. Used in development of risk assessments and mitigation actions • Marin Municipal Water District Urban Water Management Plan 2015 (approved June 7, 2016) • Countywide Watershed Stewardship Plan • Plan Bay Area 2040 • Sonoma County Water Agency Local Hazard Mitigation Plan • CAL FIRE & Marin County Fire Department Strategic Fire Plans • International Urban-Wildland Interface Code 2003 • Community Exposure to Tsunami Hazards in California report & National Geodetic Data Center database of tsunami occurrences • Cliff and Erosion Technical Background Report, 2003 prepared for Marin County Local Coastal Program update • Landslide Inventory, California Department of Conservation • California Building, Plumbing and Mechanical Codes Unincorporated Marin County Marin County’s 2023 MJHMP will be referenced in the 2023 County of Marin General Plan: Safety Element and Housing Element 2023 Update. • 2007 Marin Countywide Plan • Local Coastal Program City of Belvedere l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 88 Belvedere’s 2023 General Plan Environmental Hazards Element has thorough treatment of environmental hazards and references the City’s participation in the 2018 Marin County MJHMP and development of the 2023 update. The City’s 2011 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) was contained its Flood Mitigation Plan. • 2023 General Plan • Flood Mitigation Plan • Capital Improvement Plan • Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) • Traffic Safety Study Town of Corte Madera Corte Madera’s General Plan was updated in 2023. The General Plan calls for implementation of a Hazard Plan. The Town’s Capital Improvement Plan and building and municipal codes have been updated since 2011 and incorporate portions of the Marin County OA MJHMP Corte Madera Community Profile. • Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) • General Plan Safety Element • Housing Element City of Larkspur Larkspur is in process of updating its General Plan, which was last updated in 2023. The updated plan will comply with the Disaster Management Act 2000 by including a Safety Element that references this Hazard Mitigation Plan. The following documents are examples of the City’s continuing progress implementing mitigation measures. • General Plan Safety Element • Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan City of Mill Valley Mill Valley’s participation in the 2018 Marin County MJHMP was approved in 2019 and it has been incorporated it into other mechanisms such as the City’s General Plan (MV2040, adopted 2014) which calls for maintenance, updates, and implementation of the All Hazard Mitigation Plan. • 2023 General Plan Update ‘2040 General Plan’ including Climate Action Plan & Housing Element • General Fund and Capital Improvement Plan • Sewerage Agency of Southern Marin (SASM) Master Plan • City of Mill Valley Emergency Operations Plan • City of Mill Valley Bicycle and Pedestrian Master Plan Update 2017 City of Novato Novato participated in the 2018 Marin County MJHMP and is currently updating its General Plan. The current draft Safety and Health strategy #7a is to “Periodically update the City’s Emergency Operations Plan and Local Hazard Mitigation Plan to coordinate with emergency plans of other governmental agencies and respond to changing conditions”. The new general plan also refers to the previous hazard mitigation plan for additional information on certain hazards such as wildfire. • 2035 General Plan • Existing Conditions Report, April 2014 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 89 • 2008 City Flood Mitigation Plan • Emergency Preparedness Plan • Emergency Operations Plan • Stafford Dam Emergency Action Planning and Risk Awareness in 2015 • Identified Site Emergency Planning Application, (ISEPA) • Novato Elected/Appointed Official Guide to Disaster Operations 2017 • City of Novato Local Drainage Master Plan • City of Novato Repetitive Loss Plan City of San Rafael The City’s “General Plan 2040” updated in 2021 calls for preparation and adoption of an LHMP. Since then, the City has prepared and adopted an LHMP. City of San Rafael 2040 General Plan • City of San Rafael 2040 General Plan Background Report • City of San Rafael Climate Change Action Plan • City of San Rafael Community Emergency Preparedness Plan • City of San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy Report • Climate Adaptation – Sea Level Rise, San Rafael CA. White Paper • Marin Bay Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment City of Sausalito Sausalito participated in the 2018 Marin County MJHMP that it incorporated into other mechanisms. • 2021 General Plan • 2021 General Plan, including Climate Action Plan & Hazards & Public Safety Element Town of Fairfax The Town’s 2012 General Plan and 2011 ABAG Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex were developed concurrently, so the General Plan Advisory Committee (GPAC) reviewed, refined, and incorporated selected mitigation strategies into the final draft 2021 General Plan Safety Element. The Safety Element states that it “is intended to complement and support not only the other General Plan Elements, but also other Town plans and documents, such as the Emergency Operations Plan (EOP), the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP), and the Flood Mitigation Plan (FMP). • 2021 General Plan Safety Element • Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) • Emergency Response Plan • Community Preparedness Plan Town of Ross Ross’s General Plan was completed and adopted in 2007, before its participation in the 2018 Marin County MJHMP. The 2018 Marin County MJHMP has been incorporated into other planning mechanisms. • Town of Ross General Plan 2007 – 2025 • 2023 General Plan – Housing Element • 2018 Marin County MJHMP • Ross Valley Sanitary District Strategic Plan • Ross Valley Sewer System Replacement Master Plan 2007 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 90 • Ross Valley Sanitary District response to Grand Jury Report Dated June 16, 2011: "Ross Valley Sanitary District: Not Again!" Town of San Anselmo San Anselmo’s participated in the 2018 Marin County MJHMP, and has incorporated it into other planning mechanisms such as the General Plan, which was adopted in 2019. 2011 Climate Action Plan • 2011 Capital Improvement Plan Study for Flood Damage Reduction and Creek Management in Flood Zone 9/Ross Valley • Town of San Anselmo 2019 General Plan • 2023 General Plan – Housing Element • 2008 Flood Mitigation Plan • Town of San Anselmo Municipal Code • 7-year Capital Improvement Plan 2015 • Corte Madera Creek 2010 Flood Control Study Baseline Report Available through US Army Corps of Engineers and Ross Valley Flood Control Program website Town of Tiburon Tiburon’s “General Plan 2040” from 2023 calls for the adoption of an LHMP to comply with DMA 2000. Since then the Town has adopted the ABAG LMHP Annex in 2012. • 2023 General Plan Update ‘2040 General Plan’ including Climate Action Plan & Hazards & Public Safety Element • Capital Improvement Plan • Emergency Operations Plan • General Plan Safety Element North Marin Water District • 2017 Stafford Dam Emergency Action Plan • 2015 Master Plan Update for the Oceana Marin Wastewater System, NMWD Job File 8 4046.00 • 2018 Novato Water System Master Plan Update, NMWD Job File 1 7039.02 Coordination with other community planning efforts is also paramount to the success of this plan. Hazard mitigation planning involves identifying existing policies, tools, and actions that will reduce a community’s risk and vulnerability to hazards. Marin County uses a variety of comprehensive planning mechanisms, such as general plans and ordinances, to guide growth and development. Integrating existing planning efforts and mitigation policies and action strategies into this plan establishes a credible and comprehensive plan that ties into and supports other community programs. The development of this plan incorporated information from the following existing plans, studies, reports, and initiatives as well as other relevant data from neighboring communities and other jurisdictions: • California Drought Contingency Plan. • California Volcanoes and Volcanics. U.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory. • Central Valley Flood Control Project. • Cities/Counties Ranked by Size, Numeric, and Percent Change. State of California Department of Finance. 2014. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 91 • Community Rating System. Federal Emergency Management Agency National Flood Insurance Program. • Contingency Plan for Excessive Heat Emergencies – A Supporting Document to the State Emergency Plan, April 2010. • Developing the Mitigation Plan: Identifying Mitigation Actions and Implementation Strategies. Federal Emergency Management Agency. FEMA 386-3. 2003. • Ebbets Pass Special Plan. 1988. • Enhanced Fujita Scale. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center. 2007. • Future Eruptions in California's Long Valley Area—What’s Likely? U.S. Geological Survey. Fact Sheet 073-97. 1997. • Getting Started: Building Support for Mitigation Planning. Federal Emergency Management Agency. FEMA 386-1. 2002. • Hazard Mitigation Planning and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Federal Register. Interim Final Rule. February 26, 2002. • HAZUS-MH 2.1. Federal Emergency Management Agency. 2012. • Integrating Manmade Hazards into Mitigation Planning. Federal Emergency Management Agency. FEMA 386-7. 2003. • Introduction to Hazard Mitigation. Federal Emergency Management Agency. FEMA IS- 393.A. 2006. • Multi-Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment. Federal Emergency Management Agency. 1997. • Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the Future Savings from Mitigation Activities. National Institute of Building Science Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council. 2005. • Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the State of California. California Geological Survey. Open-File Report 96-08. 1996. • Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Act. Public Law 93-288, as amended, 42 U.S.C. 5121-5207. June 2007. • Saddle Creek Special Plan. 2008. • Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States. University of South Carolina Hazards Research Lab. • State of California Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. California Emergency Management Agency. 2013. • Understanding Your Risks: Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses. Federal Emergency Management Agency. FEMA 386-2. 2001. Data from these plans and ordinances were incorporated into the risk assessment and hazard vulnerability sections of the plan. Where the data from the existing studies and reports is used in this plan update, the source document is referenced throughout this plan update. The data was also used in determining the capability of the community in being able to implement certain mitigation strategies. A key example of coordinating with other planning efforts is the coordination of this MJHMP with local-CWPPs. This is critical for two important reasons. First, wildfires do not stop at corporate or jurisdictional boundaries and evaluating fire risk issues on a regional basis provides a comprehensive approach to understanding and addressing identified wildfire risk and vulnerability. Second, a successful mitigation strategy requires that these planning efforts be coordinated. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 92 Many other local, state, and federal documents were reviewed and considered, as appropriate, during the collection of data which include the hazard identification, vulnerability assessment, and capability assessment. 2.8 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT The Public Outreach efforts mirrored the Planning Team approach with a unified effort, led by the County OEM, involving all participating jurisdictions and districts. Extensive and coordinated public outreach was done involving all participating jurisdictions and districts with an eye towards equity, inclusion, openness, accessibility, and ensuring we meet the population where they live, work, or recreate to provide convenience of access and ease of participation in this planning process. Early discussions with the Marin County OEM established the initial plan for public engagement to ensure a meaningful and inclusive public process with a focus on equity and accessible to the whole community. Public outreach for this plan update began at the beginning of the plan development process with an informational press release to inform the community of the purpose of the hazard mitigation planning process for the Marin County planning area and to invite the public to participate in the process. Public involvement activities for this plan update included press releases; website postings; a community survey; stakeholder and public meetings; tabling at local events: and the collection of public and stakeholder comments on the draft plan which was posted on the County website. Information provided to the public included an overview of the mitigation status and successes resulting from implementation of the 2018 plan as well as information on the processes, new risk assessment data, and proposed mitigation strategies for the plan update. The County of Marin has several outreach programs, specifically designed to reach and include traditionally underserved and underrepresented communities, including, Health and Human Services’ Community Response Teams, Office of Equity’s Participatory Budgeting program, and a community-created Race and Equity Plan. To receive feedback on the Marin County OA MJHMP, bilingual outreach was conducted through the Community Response Teams, which are led by local non-profits, representing four zones of Marin County. Local non-profits are selected for grant funding to be the Community Response Team lead. Additionally, County representatives went on the West Marin radio station, KWMR, to reach rural populations. Equity and Whole Community Approach The Marin County OEM and the Steering Committee prioritized equity and engagement of the whole community in the development of the Marin County Multijurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan. As a means to reach as many members of the community as possible, Marin County OEM required that services be universally designed and delivered from the beginning to allow for the greatest level of engagement and feedback possible. Elements of the equity approach included: 44 CFR Requirement 201.6(b): An open public involvement process is essen�al to the development of an effec�ve plan. In order to develop a more comprehensive approach to reducing the effects of natural disasters, the planning process shall include: (1) An opportunity for the public to comment on the plan during the dra�ing stage and prior to plan approval. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 93 • Providing multiple means for public engagement via hybrid meetings (in-person meetings with a virtual attendance and comment option). • All presentations were accompanied by American Sign Language (ASL), Closed- Captioning, and Spanish Interpretation • Presentations were reviewed by accessibility professionals prior to broadcasting to ensure the documents were able to be read by screen-readers. • All presentations were available on-line and recorded for persons who may not have been able to attend the live presentations. Engaging hard-to-reach populations This effort was to ensure the greatest equity and access to the public to enable participation in the process. The Marin County OEM outreach strategy is to “meet people where they are.” The Town hall meetings were conducted at different familiar locations within the county where people could easily access them and were conducted on both a weekday and weekend, and in the evening and during the daytime. The meetings were offered in-person with a virtual broadcast using Zoom videoconferencing and streamed live on the Marin County OEM Facebook account. After the meetings, Marin County OEM uploaded the recorded meetings to their website to allow the public on demand access to the meetings. Translation and Interpretation Services The survey and outreach materials were provided in both English and Spanish to improve accessibility among populations with limited English proficiency. The website uses Google Translate for accessibility in multiple languages. Interpretation services were offered for both town hall meetings. Each town hall meeting included, live Spanish translation and subtitles, live American Sign Language/ Certified Deaf Interpreter (ASL/CDI) interpretation, the ability for the Zoom videoconferencing attendee to activate subtitles in 28 different languages, and vision accessible PowerPoint slides. Three stakeholder and public meetings were held, two at the beginning of the plan development process and one prior to finalizing the updated plan. Where appropriate, stakeholder and public comments and recommendations were incorporated into the final plan, including the sections that address mitigation goals and strategies. Specifically, public comments were obtained during the plan development process and prior to plan finalization. All press releases and website postings are on file with the Marin County OEM. Public meetings were advertised in a variety of ways to maximize outreach efforts to both targeted groups and to the public at large. Advertisement mechanisms for these meetings and for involvement in the overall MJHMP development process include: • Development and publishing of an MJHMP public outreach article • Providing press releases to local newspapers and radio stations • Posting meeting announcements on the local County MJHMP website • Email to established email lists • Personal phone calls The public outreach activities were conducted with participation from and on behalf of all jurisdictions participating in this plan. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 94 The Steering Committee has made the commitment to periodically bring this plan before the public through public meetings and community posting so that community members may make input as strategies and implementation actions change. Public meetings will continue to be held twice a year. Public meetings will continue to be stand -alone meetings but may also follow a council meeting or other official government meeting. The public will continue to be invited to public meetings via social media messaging, newspaper invitations, and through the website for each jurisdiction participating in the plan. Each jurisdiction is responsible for assuring that their community members are informed when deemed appropriate by the Steering Committee. 2.8.1 WEBSITE At the beginning of the plan update process, Marin County OEM established a hazard mitigation website ( https://emergency.marincounty.org/pages/lhmp) to keep the public posted on plan development milestones and to solicit relevant input. The website also provided information on signing up for Alert Marin, provided detailed information about the hazard mitigation process and plan development, provided a URL and QR code link to the survey in both English and Spanish, and provided information about upcoming town hall meetings. (See Figure 2.1) The site’s address was publicized in all press releases, surveys and public town hall meetings. Each planning partner also established a link on their own agency website. Information on the plan development process, the Steering Committee, a link to the Hazard Mitigation survey, and drafts of the plan were made available to the public on the site. Marin County intends to keep a website active after the plan’s completion to keep the public informed about successful mitigation projects and future plan updates. Figure 2.1: Marin County OEM MJHMP Website Source: Marin County OEM 2.8.2 PUBLIC MEETINGS Two separate Marin County OA MJHMP Public Town Hall Meeting were conducted at different locations within the County, on different days of the week and during different times of the day. This effort was to ensure the greatest equity and access by the public to enable l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ __ J. ~•RIN Emergencv. Portal Get Alerted Stay Informed Weather Prepare COVID-19 More· ~ 0 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitiga t ion Update The various communities and service providers within Marin County are working together to update our Marin County Multi -Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan . As part of this update process, we are asking for community insight and input. https1/t-me<gency.manncountyorg/pages/alerts 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 95 participation in the process. The Marin County OEM outreach strategy is to “meet people where they are”. Each Town Hall Meeting included, live Spanish translation and subtitles, Live American Sign Language (ASL/CDI) interpretation, the ability for the Zoom videoconferencing attendee to activate subtitles in 28 different languages, and vision accessible PowerPoint slide. The first Town Hall Meeting was conducted on Thursday, April 13, 2023, from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm, at the Marin County Board of Supervisors Chambers, Marin County Civic Center, 3501 Civic Center Drive, Room #330 San Rafael, CA 94903. The in-person meeting was also broadcast virtually using Zoom videoconferencing and streamed live on Marin County OEM Facebook account. Each of the jurisdictions participating in the MJHMP released a Press Release on their respective websites announcing the Public Town Hall Meeting and providing the date, time, and URL link to the Zoom Meeting for the public to log in and attend the Zoom Meeting. Marin County OEM also posted a notice for the Public Town Hall Meeting on their Facebook account. At the conclusion of the presentation, a question and answer session was held to answer questions from the attendees. The second Town Hall Meeting was conducted on Saturday, April 29, 2023, from 10:00 am to 11:30 am, at the Marin County Health and Wellness Center, 3240 Kerner Ave. Rooms #109 and #110 San Rafael, CA. 94903. The meeting followed the same format as the first and hosted the same access level of equity and accessibility. The Marin County MJHMP Public Town Hall Meeting was recorded and downloaded from Zoom and made available to all of the jurisdictions and districts to place on their websites and local Access TV for the public to view. Meeting participants were also invited to complete the Hazard Mitigation Survey and were provided the URL link to the Survey Monkey website to complete the survey. Figure 2.2: Marin County OA MJHMP Town Hall Meeting Source: Preparative Consulting l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 96 Figure 2.3: Collecting community feedback on the MJHMP Source: Marin County OEM 2.8.3 SOCIAL MEDIA Marin County and its participating jurisdictions utilized several forms of social media to reach residents and customers. Information about the Hazard Mitigation Planning process was communicated to the public via Facebook, Twitter, and local access TV. Residents and customers were invited to complete the Hazard Mitigation Plan survey which was accessible via an attached URL or QR Code and provide feedback on potential hazard mitigation projects or programs. The results of the survey were provided to each of the planning partners and used to support the jurisdictional annex process. Each planning partner was able to use the survey results to help identify actions as follows: • Gauge the public’s perception of risk and identify what community members are concerned about. • Identify the best ways to communicate with the public. • Determine the level of public support for different mitigation strategies. • Understand the public’s willingness to invest in hazard mitigation. During this planning process, completed surveys were submitted. The complete survey can be found in Appendix C of this plan. 2.8.4 PRESS RELEASES Press releases were distributed over the course of the plan’s development as key milestones were achieved and prior to each Marin County OA MJHMP Public Town Hall Meeting. All press releases were made available to the community in both English and Spanish. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 97 Figure 2.4: Hazard Mitigation Plan Public Outreach Press Release Source: Marin County OEM 2.8.5 SURVEY A hazard mitigation plan survey (see Figure 2.5) was developed by the Steering Committee and made available to the public in both English and Spanish. The survey was used to gauge household preparedness for natural hazards and the level of knowledge of tools and techniques that assist in reducing risk and loss from natural hazards. This survey was designed to help identify areas vulnerable to one or more natural hazards. The answers to its 10 questions helped guide the Steering Committee in defining our hazards, and selecting goals, objectives, and mitigation strategies. The survey was made available on the hazard mitigation plan website, advertised in press releases, and at town hall meetings. Finally, the survey and the process of public input was advertised throughout the course of the planning process. The survey was made available to the public on March 13, 2023, and closed on June 12, 2023. At the conclusion of the planning process 293 surveys were completed by the public. Public Comments Considered by the Planning Team The Planning Team used the following information gathered from the Public Outreach Survey to inform decisions regarding hazard mitigation strategies, actions, and priorities. • Climate Change, Wildfire, and Drought were the top hazards of concern for the public. • Text messages, mail, and the County website were the preferred methods for receiving hazard mitigation information. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Mann Counl)I 'Mt.illl.Jurl'5dlclioru1I H1wu 11 J ~.4 ►1 ',J t1911,tw,,,Pll'lnPubllc Outre,,c.h.Surv•y Dear t.tan n County ~:,, MWTt>er, A IC.P UO The var10u, oormiunlHes <within Marin CO!..flly are YQklng 1ogelher IO UIP03'le \:=I Mar111 Ccxn,fy"s Mui~ Haz.Vd Millgatlorl Pian. As part or this ~,.,.. .. oommunltypl,tfmlng procen, we iJre asl&'Q torccmmunltylnf)ut to ensuret~t the prooo,ed ~ 1>oject,, .... ...-i .... ,. oJJoned""" , .. comnu,11)'$ e'1stt11g ~ 1iU1d e-xpec:Ul\lOn$. 1/Aial 1s Har.lid Millga1lan7 Hazard '4tlgatlon t!l ~ eJ1ort to rl!dlic:n tile IDs5 of llrt! .ino dam.lge to l)f0pef1y ano the envrronmeni by lessening 1ne lmpad' or NttUflli hazards on the C0ffllTU.Jnlty , By ~l'lding What na,ur ha!ards we tac4!I: lh Mann eounry, and ht1w ~ ha2:artb may l'npact our COfmlunltles lltw' ~ lnjurltlg people, """"1glog or <le5tloylng _,-,, o, lmpoeolng !he enYlfomlffi; we reference thlt document 10 $,fJek, ways to piote<:l people. property. -and the environment from uie Impact or lhese hantf'dS. .As pr'qt!Cls or ptOgramS lo reduce or mitigate the Impact ol ttiose natural l'laZards on the com~. To be ellrJlb+e tor loc::ill Hazan:! MIUgaflon PrQ/e(:I: IUncJln9 we mustrirstconsldcrl'IOWttw::st-l\acut-ill ha.tar~"11pact U5and !twntiXPIOrehOWwe can ?(otecl agalnsl tnem. Wf! ~I II IS lrl'.,ortan1 to~ lhil!! wt'IOlc tOrlTrUJnlly [ntht$t!:ltoi'l You a,e ~ to answe, a tew Simple questions abol.lt ~ lff'M a concetn to, l\atural hai:anfs kl )'IJllf comnullty and any S)teparedness adlon:s you hlM! taki!n or 'NY be 1a1<1ng 10 prepare for a "'-!Wraf dtsasw, The County wm also addle,, new and eme,glng ltlreats W!tt;ln lnls document SUCh as cwna10 t.hangO ;,nt:1 ~ air quat1ry; ~. ine prln'laly na1ura1 naza,cts being assessed are: 0.1fTIFallr.we °"""' Flow, E"10ion, LMO,llde, Pos.t-FireOecn,FkJw Ckougm Eatl!>qua .. -L.and SU~ CSJl']khol!!} .,_.F ... e Se-a liNol Rfso Se.\l~tWtalrM!t-Extreme H&at severe Wealhet-Wl ild, Hall, UgMnlng Wlkffite T,....,. Visa mt M"rln couary Hilffd llhiPfffl?n wewre, Arltnd a Town H~II MU IIAA I You arc ~Bel toarumo (JOO of two tt1tt1lrig1--biling hB1 In~ ~ ,O ; Marin COt.ln'ty Mu.nt.JurlsdlcU.,n,at t4aza,d Mit191uon Pinn Publl,c. Outreoch soniey With a videocmference Md a Facebooi. ll vr Fl"Cd fOr )'00 to pariJcfpa1b remoi:ety We y,,i pro--1de an ovefVle'w ot lhe ttsurd M!tjgal}Ol1 Plamtrig ptoeess and explain hOW you can help. You may access lhe meetk,g remotely b)' dk:t:lng the Zoon, Unk bek>w: \, Thu~y, April 13, 2023, 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm Marin county Boitrd or SupeMs«s CNmbtf'$ Marln Coi.ny CMG Cffler 3SOI CMe Cen1er Dr!Ye, Room #330 San Ra ..... CA 94903 "}, Saturday, April 29 , 20:23, 10:00 am to 11:30 am Ma:r'ln county Ht1tth aiMI Wtllntss center s.240 ~ A'w't!I. Room:!! W 109 ;and in 10 Soar1 Raf.lei, CA. 94903 (llrf!!,ll~M)llJM'8~,wa.,,:f-. t, IY~ ~ Meeting tO: 818 2438 0():10 Passa>de! 432999 !honk )'OU lo, lak»g lhe IJme lo oon,,lele M 1,,,,.,._ """"I• Eadi '°"'""""l' mtrnber-'5 rridbac:I( IS Cl'i!Jcal 10 too c::iu.My's t-nort IOdevtrop a ~~~ p111i11 co e-ffecrrvety prg1ea cne commvnltles ot M.:irin , -~, St&ven Torrence Oheetorol Emetgeney~I Ofllce ar Emergency Managemen'I ..... ,~ ........ 0 IICPVO ,,,_ .... ~ DI 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 98 • 48% of respondents expressed that they were “Very Much” concerned and 31% were “Moderately” concerned that a natural disaster could impact their home or place of residence. • 85% of respondents own their own home. • 99% of respondents have access to the internet. Figure 2.5: Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey Source: Preparative Consulting 2.8.6 PUBLIC COMMENT ON THE PLAN To solicit public feedback on the draft plan, Marin OEM engaged in a multi-faceted approach intended to reach as many Marin residents as possible, including members of the community who are under-served and under-represented. All members of the community had the opportunity to provide initial comments on the plan during a two-week period from Public Outreach Survey h�ps://www.surveymonkey.com/r/MarincountyMJHMP 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ - - Mar1n County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey Public Outreach Survey Encuesta del Plan Local de Mitigad6n. de Riesgos Multi- Jurlsdlcclonal de'l Condado de Marin en Espaflol https ://www.surveymonkey.com/r/MarinCountyMJHMPEspanol 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 99 Wednesday, December 4, 2023, to Wednesday, December 18, 2023. Although the initial comment period was listed as two weeks, the public could submit comments indefinitely via the County’s website to support the County’s continuous improvement efforts. The base plan, as well as city, town and special district annexes, were available for download on emergency.marincounty.org (include photos). The website additionally asked for feedback in a survey in English and Spanish (include photos), the survey was designed to establish where that person lives or works, their top hazards of concern, elicit feedback on the plan and offer a place for them to share projects to reduce risk in their community. The survey collected responses from the community in English and in Spanish. The website and survey were shared through traditional and social media (photos) The Marin Independent Journal (Marin IJ) used the press release to write an article (hopefully; include photos). Social media accounts were updated four times with an initial ask, two reminders, and a closing announcement. The Marin OEM Public Information Officer coordinated with the Marin County Public Information Officers (MAPIO) working group to distribute information to partner jurisdictions (city, town, and special districts) to share this information on their social media sites and with the communities in the area. To reach those who may not be engaged digitally, the planning team worked with Marin County Community Response Teams, (CRTs are a collaboration of non-profit organizations supporting underrepresented communities in four zones) to conduct outreach with half-sheet flyers in English and Spanish to share in the 4 CRT zones (southern Marin, north Marin, west Marin, San Rafael). These half sheets were also shared county-wide at libraries, including in areas not covered by CRTs, like at the Fairfax library. CRTs are designed to reach Marin’s traditionally underserved and underrepresented communities, so by conducting outreach through this method, we were able to inform residents who may not have been engaged otherwise, including residents in Marin City, West Marin, and the Canal District of San Rafael. The 14-day public comment period gave the public an opportunity to comment on the draft plan update prior to the plan’s submittal to Cal OES. Comments received on the draft plan are available upon request. All comments were reviewed by the planning team and incorporated into the draft plan as appropriate. Public Comments Considered by the Planning Team The Marin County OEM posted the draft Hazard Mitigation Plan and hazard mitigation actions on their website and solicited public comments on the content. The Planning Team gathered public comments and information on the Marin County OEM website regarding proposed and current Hazard Mitigation Actions. The Planning Team used the comments and suggestions to inform decisions regarding hazard mitigation strategies, actions, and priorities. Most comments included ideas for hazard mitigation projects and comments on the effectiveness of current mitigation projects. These comments were used to revised the proposed hazard mitigation actions which resulted in the final list of hazard mitigation actions listed in 4.9 Hazard Mitigation Actions. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 100 SECTION 3.0: HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT The Marin County Operational Area (OA) is at risk from a variety of hazards. Many of these hazards, could result in a disastrous impact on the county. Although an attempt has been made to identify all major hazards and their respective impacts within Marin County, it must be highlighted that we live in a time of new and emerging threats. To the extent to which there are certain natural events which are inevitable and necessary for the environment to remain in balance (e.g., earthquakes, wildfires, and flooding), the County of Marin recognizes that no natural hazard is solely natural, and the risk assessments identified within this plan are linked to human influences from local and global human actions or inaction. Risk to natural hazards is a combination of hazard, vulnerability, and capability. The risk assessment process identifies and profiles relevant hazards and assesses the exposure of lives, property, and infrastructure to these hazards. The goal of the risk assessment is to estimate the potential losses in Marin County from a hazard event. This process also allows communities in Marin County to better understand their potential risk to human-influenced, natural hazards and provides a framework for developing and prioritizing mitigation actions to reduce risks from future hazards in Marin County. 3.1 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION The process of identifying hazards that do or could potentially affect Marin County at various levels was the first step in assessing overall risk. Recognizing the potential required an analysis of known, suspected, and emerging hazards existing within or directly affecting Marin County. Some of the following questions were used during the analysis: • What are the known hazards? • What are the suspected hazards? • What are the potential, new, or emerging hazards? • What are the elements of the hazard? • What are the conditions associated with the occurrence of a hazardous event? • What factors are required for an event to turn hazardous? The Steering Committee reviewed data from the following sources on hazards affecting the county: the Federal and State Disaster Declaration History, the State of California Hazard Mitigation Plan (2018), the Safety Element of the participating jurisdictions, and the 2018 Marin County OA MJHMP. Additional documents are noted in the reference section of this document. 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i) [The risk assessment shall include a] descrip�on of the type, loca�on and extent of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdic�on. The plan shall include informa�on on previous occurrences of hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 101 The Steering Committee came to agreement on significant hazards to the Marin County OA. The following natural hazards are detailed in this section and are profiled for each jurisdiction participating in the Marin County OA MJHMP: Table 3.1: Marin County OA MJHMP Hazard Identification and Comparison 2023 Hazards Climate Profile 2018 Hazards Comment Climate Change Yes Climate Change – not included The impact of climate change profiled and discussed in all applicable hazards. Coastal Erosion Now profiled under debris flows/landslide. Dam Failure Earthquake Now profiled as a separate hazard. Debris Flow Yes Severe Storm and Wildfire Now profiled as a separate hazard. Drought Yes Wildfire Now profiled as a separate hazard. Earthquake Earthquake Continued as a hazard. Flood Yes Severe Storm Now profiled as a separate hazard. Land Subsidence Yes Severe Storm Now profiled as a separate hazard. Levee Failure Yes Severe Storm Now profiled as a separate hazard. Liquefaction Now profiled under Earthquake. Sea Level Rise Yes Sea Level Rise – Severe Storms Sea Level Rise now profiled as a separate hazard. Severe Weather – Extreme Heat Yes Wildfire Now profiled under Severe Weather. Severe Weather – High Wind/Tornado Yes Severe Storm Continued as a hazard under Severe Weather. Tsunami Yes Tsunami/Seiche Continued as a hazard Wildfire Yes Wildfire Continued as a hazard Table 3.1: Marin County OA MJHMP Hazard Identification and Comparison Table 3.2 below lists additional hazards of interest that were identified by the Steering Committee as having some potential to impact the planning area but are not hazards eligible for Hazard Mitigation Grant Funding. These hazards have been briefly profiled to illustrate their potential impact on the County of Marin. No formal risk assessment of these hazards was performed. However, all planning partners for this plan should be aware of these hazards and should take steps to reduce the risks they present whenever it is practical to do so. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 102 Table 3.2: Marin County OA MJHMP Other Hazards Profiled Critical Infrastructure/ Utility Disruption Cyber Threats Oil Spills Pandemic Air Pollution Transportation Systems Table 3.2: Marin County OA MJHMP Other Hazards Profiled 3.1.1 DISASTER DECLARATION HISTORY One method to identify hazards is to look at the events that have triggered federal and/or state disaster declarations that included Marin County. The following table lists the disaster declarations where Marin County was designated federal and/or state disaster declarations since the 2018 MJHMP update. Table 3.3 shows the number of state and federal declared disasters in Marin County in relation to the rest of California from 1950-2023. Table 3.3: State and Federal Declared Disasters in Marin County Location Event Type(s) Year State/Federal # Damage Est.* Tomales Tornado 1996 $205,000 Southern Marin Flash Flood 1998 $2,000,000 Corte Madera Heavy Rain 2002 $200,000 Coastal Marin Coastal Flood 2005/ 2006 $340,000 Countywide Flood 2005/ 2006 $219,000,000 Interior Valleys Debris Flow 2006 $45,900,000 Coastal Marin Strong Wind 2006 $500,000 Interior Valleys Frost/Freeze 2007 $3,000,000 Corte Madera Flash Flood 2008 $50,000 Interior Valleys and Mountains Strong Wind 2009 $140,000 Countywide (Santa Venetia) Flood/Wind 2009 $260,000 Interior Valleys Strong Wind 2009 $85,000 Coastal Marin Coastal Flood, Strong Wind, Flood 2010 $770,000 Countywide (Larkspur) Heavy Rain/ Strong Wind 2010 $100,000 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 103 Countywide Strong Wind 2010 $85,000 Coastal Marin Strong Wind/Storm Surge 2011 $325,000 Interior Valleys Strong Wind 2011 $50,000 Interior Valleys Strong Wind 2011 $200,000 Interior Valleys Strong Wind 2012 $60,000 Interior Valleys and Coast Strong Wind 2012 $501,500 Interior Valleys Strong Wind 2012 $150,000 Interior Valleys Strong Wind 2012 $50,100 Countywide Flood/Strong Wind 2012 $210,100 Mountains Strong Wind 2013 $80,000 Countywide (Greenbrae, Novato, Marin City, Tamalpais Valley, Olema) Flash Flood/Debris Flow 2014 $6,001,000 Interior Valleys/Coast Strong Wind 2014 $115,600 Interior Valleys and Mountains Strong Wind 2015 $23,500 Mill Valley AFS Heavy Rain 2015 No data Interior Valleys Coastal Flood 2016 No data Interior Valleys Strong Wind 2016 No data Alto Flash Flood 2016 No data Countywide Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides 2017 Fed 3381 No data Countywide Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides 2017 Fed 4301 No data Countywide Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides 2017 Fed 4302 No data San Rafael and Corte Madera Flood 2017 Local No data Kentfield Flash Flood 2017 Local No data Tomales Flood 2017 Local No data Corte Madera Flood 2017 Local No data Ignacio, Burdell, Marin City, Mountains Strong Wind, Flash Flood, Flood 2017 Local No data Interior Valleys Strong Wind 2017 Local No data Mountains Strong Wind 2017 Local No data Mountains and Coast Strong Wind 2017 Local No data l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 104 Interior Valleys and Mountains Strong Wind 2017 Local No data Greenbrae and Mountains Strong Wind, Flood 2017 Local No data Interior Valleys and Coast Strong Wind 2017 Local No data Corte Madera Flood 2018 Local No data Countywide Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) 2019 Local Countywide Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides 2019 Fed 4431 Countywide Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides 2019 Fed 4434 Countywide COVID-19 2020 Fed 4482 Woodward Valley Trail and the Coast Trail (Woodward Fire) Lightning, Wildfire 2020 Local Pt Reyes Coastal Oil Spill (American Challenger ship wreck) 2021 Local Countywide Drought 2021 Local Countywide Extreme Heat Event 2021 Local Countywide Atmospheric River, Severe Winter Storms, Flooding 2021 CDAA 2022-02 Countywide Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides 2022 Fed DR-4683 Countywide Severe Winter Storms, High Winds, Flooding, Landslides 2022 Fed DR-4699 Countywide Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides 2022- 2023 CDAA 2023-01 CDAA 2023-02 Countywide Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides 2023 CDAA 2023-03 * Damage estimates may be initial damage estimates for the Local Proclamations and do not necessarily represent the final damage estimates. Table 3.3: State and Federal Declared Disasters in Marin County 3.1.2 OMISSION OF HAZARDS Several natural hazards were omitted from further analysis for all participating jurisdictions due to either their low probability of occurrence or minimal impact: l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 105 Avalanche: An avalanche is a rapid flow of snow down a hill or mountainside. The Marin County OA rarely gets snow and not in significant enough quantities to cause an avalanche. Fog: Fog is a collection of water droplets or ice crystals suspended in the air at or near the Earth’s surface. While the Marin County OA experiences severe and dense fog, Marin County does not consider it to be a significant enough threat for profiling in the 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP. Haboob: A haboob is a type of intense dust storm carried on an atmospheric gravity current known as a weather front. Haboobs occur primarily in arid regions including parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. The Marin County OA does not have arid land and does not experience haboobs. Severe Weather – Hail/Ice/Snow: Hail is pellets of frozen rain that fall in showers from cumulonimbus clouds while snow is atmospheric water vapor frozen into ice crystals and falling in light white flakes. There have been minor occurrences of hail, ice, and snow in Marin County, but none that have had significant impacts. A significant event is not expected to occur in the Marin County OA due to its mild winter temperatures and climate. Severe Weather – Freeze/Extreme Cold: Freeze and extreme cold are defined as a period in which temperatures fall below the freezing point of 32 degrees Fahrenheit or 0 degrees Celsius. The Marin County OA rarely experiences freezing temperatures or extreme cold due to its mild winter temperatures and climate. Space Weather: Space weather includes conditions and events on the sun, in solar wind, in near-Earth space, and in Earth’s upper atmosphere that can affect space-borne and ground- based technological systems. Space weather also includes asteroids, comets, and meteors. There have been no space weather events in Marin County. While a solar flare has the potential to disrupt communications and while an impact from a space object could cause significant loss of life and destruction, the unknown results of these events limit the County’s ability to truly profile and assess this hazard. Tropical Storm/Hurricane: A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone with winds of 39-73 miles per hour while a hurricane is a tropical cyclone with winds of 74 miles per hour or greater. Though tropical cyclones have passed over Southern California, none have reached Marin County due to its northern latitude and climate. Whereas climate change may include the likelihood of a Tropical Storm and Hurricane reaching the Bay Area, the Marin Operational Area will view these hazards as a severe storm, strong winds, and/ or flooding events, which are profiled within the document. Volcano: A volcano is a mountain that opens downward to a reservoir of molten rock below the surface of the earth. While there are volcanoes in the Cascade Range to the north of Marin County that could potentially impact the Marin County OA with ash fall upon eruption, the Marin County OA does not consider volcanoes to be significant enough for profiling in the 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 106 3.2 HAZARD ANALYSIS The Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the mitigation strategy that will reduce losses from identified hazards. The HIRA makes a clear connection between the community’s vulnerability and the hazard mitigation actions. According to Section 44 of the Code of Federal Regulations, The MJHMP must include a definition and description of the natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction(s) in the planning area, as well as several additional required elements for natural hazards: Location and Previous Occurrences Location means the geographic areas in the planning area that are affected by each hazard. This information is shown in narrative form and/or in maps. The MJHMP also includes the history of previous hazard events for each of the identified hazards. Impacts Impact means the consequence or effect of the hazard on the community and its assets. Assets are determined by the community and include, for example, people, structures, facilities, systems, capabilities, and/or activities that have value to the community. Extent Extent describes the potential severity of a disaster and any secondary events caused by the hazard in the operational area. Extent is classified by the following: • Catastrophic: More than 50 percent of the operational area affected • Critical: Between 25-50 percent of the operational area affected • Limited: 10-25 percent of the operational area affected • Negligible: Less than 10 percent of the operational area affected Probability Probability notes the frequency of past events and is used to gauge the likelihood of future occurrences. Based on historical data, the probability of future occurrences is categorized into 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii) [The risk assessment shall include a] descrip�on of the jurisdic�on’s vulnerability to the hazards described in paragraph (c)(2)(i) of this sec�on. This descrip�on shall include an overall summary of each hazard and its impact on the community. All plans approved a�er October 1, 2008 must also address NFIP insured structures that have been repe��vely damaged by floods. The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of: (A) The types and numbers of exis�ng and future buildings, infrastructure, and cri�cal facili�es located in the iden�fied hazard areas; (B) An es�mate of the poten�al dollar losses to vulnerable structures iden�fied in … this sec�on and a descrip�on of the methodology used to prepare the es�mate. (C) Providing a general descrip�on of land uses and development trends within the community so that mi�ga�on op�ons can be considered in future land use decisions. §201.6(c)(2)(iii) For mul�‐jurisdic�onal plans, the risk assessment sec�on must assess each jurisdic�on’s risks where they vary from the risks facing the en�re planning area. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 107 one of the following classifications: • Highly Likely: Near 100 percent chance of occurrence next year or happens every year • Likely: Between 10 percent and 100 percent chance of occurrence in the next year or has a recurrence interval of 10 years or less • Occasional: Between 1 percent and 10 percent chance of occurrence in the next year or has a recurrence interval of 11 to 50 years • Unlikely: Less than 1 percent chance of occurrence in next 50 years or has a recurrence interval of greater than every 50 years The probability, or chance of occurrence, was calculated where possible based on existing data. Probability was determined by dividing the number of events observed by the number of years and multiplying by 100. This gives the percent chance of the event happening in any given year. An example would be three droughts occurring over a 30-year period, which suggests a 10 percent chance of that hazard occurring in any given year. Vulnerability The vulnerability assessment further defines and quantifies populations, buildings, critical facilities, and other community assets at risk to natural hazards. The vulnerability assessment for this plan followed the methodology described in the FEMA 386-2, Understanding Your Risks – Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses. The vulnerability assessment was conducted based on the best available data and the significance of the hazard. Data to support the vulnerability assessment was collected from the following sources: • County and jurisdictional GIS data (hazards, base layers, and other government data) through MarinMap • Statewide GIS datasets compiled by CalOES to support mitigation planning • Written descriptions of assets and risks provided by participating jurisdictions • Existing plans and reports • Personal interviews with jurisdictional representatives and other stakeholders The vulnerability assessment describes the assets at risk in Marin County, including the total exposure of people and property; critical facilities and infrastructure; natural, cultural, and historic resources; and economic assets. During the Kickoff Meeting with the MJHMP Planning Team and the Steering Committee, the group was provided with a Hazard Risk Ranking Worksheet to complete. The members were asked to provide their opinion on the types of hazards that may impact Marin County. These hazards will be included in the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment portion of the MJHMP and considered in the Mitigation Strategy portion of the MJHMP. They were asked to consider a hazard from the perspective of the worst-case scenario. Members were provided a list of hazards from the 2018 MJHMP and additional hazards they presented for consideration. The list of hazards was consolidated to group similar hazards and focused on only natural hazards, per FEMA’s guidance for local hazard mitigation planning. Members were asked to choose the most likely hazards within the County. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 108 The results of the assessment from the Planning Team and Steering Committee assessment were presented to the Steering Committee to validate. The Steering Committee came to agreement on the following significant hazards to Marin County and its participating jurisdictions. These significant natural hazards are detailed and ranked in this section: Table 3.4: Marin County Hazard Risk Assessment Hazard Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Dam Failure Unlikely Negligible Extreme Low Medium 9.00 Debris Flow, Erosion, Landslide, Post-Fire Debris Flow Occasional Extensive Severe Medium Medium 13.00 Drought Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High High 16.00 Earthquake Highly Likely Extensive Extreme None High 15.00 Flooding Highly Likely Limited Severe High Medium 14.00 Land Subsidence (Sinkhole) Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 Levee Failure Unlikely Negligible Moderate Medium High 9.00 Sea Level Rise Highly Likely Limited Extreme High High 16.00 Severe Weather – Extreme Heat Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 Severe Weather – Wind, Tornado Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 Tsunami Highly Likely Limited Extreme Medium High 15.00 Wildfire Highly Likely Significant Severe High High 16.00 Table 3.4: Marin County Hazard Risk Assessment Once the Steering Committee determined the hazards to be profiled, they were asked to assess the vulnerability and risk to their jurisdictions or districts posed by these hazards. To inform this assessment the Steering Committee completed a detailed list of their critical facilities, critical infrastructure, and high potential loss facilities in their jurisdiction or district. This information was inputted into the County of Marin Office of Emergency Management GIS mapping program and plotted on a map of their jurisdiction or district. Each hazard profiled was then separately overlayed onto the map of the jurisdiction or district to show the impact the hazard may have on the critical facilities, critical infrastructure, and high potential loss facilities. The Steering Committee was provided a hazard vulnerability and risk assessment tool to assess and score each hazard based on five categories: Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events, Geographic Extent, Magnitude/ Severity, Climate Change Influence, and Significance. Since each jurisdiction or special district is vulnerable to some but not all hazards, such as sea level rise that threatens coastal communities but not all communities within Marin County, each 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ j j j j j j 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 109 jurisdiction or special district was asked to consider their exposure to each hazard. If their jurisdiction or district is not vulnerable to sea level rise then they might assess their vulnerability to that hazard as "None." For hazards that they are vulnerable to they were asked to assess them using the extent, likelihood, and severity categories discussed above. Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events • Unlikely: Occurs in intervals greater than 100 years - Less than 1% probability of occurrence in the next year or a recurrence interval greater than 100 years. • Occasional: Occurring every 11 to 100 years - 1-10% probability of occurrence in the next year or a recurrence interval of 11 to 100 years. • Likely: Occurring every 1 to 10 years - 10-90% probability of occurrence in the next year or recurrence interval of 1 to 10 years. • Highly Likely: Occurring almost every year - 90-100% probability of occurrence in the next year or a recurrence interval of less than 1 year. Geographic Extent • Negligible: Less than 10% of the planning area • Limited: 10-25% of the planning area • Significant: 25-75% of planning area • Extensive: 75-100% of planning area Magnitude/ Severity • Weak: Limited classification on scientific scale, slow speed of onset or short duration of event, resulting in little to no damage. • Moderate: Moderate classification on scientific scale, moderate speed of onset or moderate duration of event, resulting in some damage and loss of services for days. • Severe: Severe classification on scientific scale, fast speed of onset or long duration of event, resulting in devastating damage and loss of services for weeks or months. • Extreme: Extreme classification on scientific scale, immediate onset or extended duration of event, resulting in catastrophic damage and uninhabitable conditions. Table 3.5: Hazard Magnitude and Severity Scale Hazard Scale/Index Weak Moderate Severe Extreme Drought Palmer Drought Severity Index +1.99 to -1.99 -2.00 to -2.99 -3.00 to -3.99 -4.00 and below Earthquake Modified Mercalli I to IV V to VII VIII IX to XII Richter Magnitude 2,3 4,5 6 7,8 Hurricane Wind Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale 1 2 3 4,5 Tornado Fujita Tornado Damage Scale FO F1, F2 F3 F4, F5 Table 3.5: Hazard Magnitude and Severity Scale 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ I I I I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 110 Climate Change Influence • Low: Minimal potential impact • Medium: Moderate potential impact • High: Widespread potential impact Significance • Low: Minimal potential impact - Two or more criteria fall in lower classifications, or the event has a minimal impact on the planning area. This rating is sometimes used for hazards with a minimal or unknown record of occurrences or for hazards with minimal mitigation potential. • Medium: Moderate potential impact - The criteria fall mostly in the middle ranges of classifications and the event’s impacts on the planning area are noticeable but not devastating. This rating is sometimes used for hazards with a high extent rating but very low probability rating. • High: Widespread potential impact - The criteria consistently fall in the high classifications and the event is likely/highly likely to occur with. Each jurisdiction and district completed the Hazard Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool, and their individual results are recorded in their Jurisdictional or District Profile. The following Table 3.4 illustrates the results of the Marin County Risk Assessment. Table 3.6: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Top Hazards Scored Hazard Ranking Score 1. Drought 16 2. Sea Level Rise 16 3. Wildfire 16 4. Earthquake 15 5. Severe Weather – Extreme Heat 15 6. Severe Weather – Wind, Tornado 15 7. Tsunami 15 8. Flooding 14 9. Debris Flow, Erosion, Landslide, Post-Fire Debris Flow 13 10. Land Subsidence (Sinkhole) 10 11. Dam Failure 9 12. Levee Failure 9 Table 3.6: Marin County Hazard Risk Assessment – Top Hazards Scored l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 111 Risk Level Risk Numerical Score High Risk 12 - 16 Serious Risk 8 - 11 Moderate Risk 4 - 7 Low Risk 1 - 3 Figure 3.1: Marin County Risk Assessment – Top Hazards Graphed 3.2.1 CLIMATE CHANGE The County of Marin and associated jurisdictions profiled jointly recognize that the earth’s climate is forcibly being augmented due to humans’ reliance on fossil fuels and non-natural resources which pose negative impacts on the earth’s climate. Reliance on fossil fuels and non - natural products results in the climate shifting to include unseasonable temperatures, more frequent and intense storms, prolonged heat and cold events, and a greater reliance on technological advancements to maintain the wellbeing of community members and balance of the environment. The forced adaptation to climatic shifts is necessary for the County and jurisdictions to understand and include with these assessments. Locally to Marin, drought and rain events have already had devastating impacts to critical infrastructure, agriculture, and water resources; and globally, unseasonable temperatures have been identified as the cause for enhanced wildfires, severe droughts, ice sheets and glaciers disappearing, and persons emigrating from their countries due to a lack of sustainable, local resources. Melting land ice contributes additional water to the oceans and as ocean temperatures rise the water expands, both of which contribute to increase rates of sea level rise. Marin is bordered on the west by the Pacific Ocean and on the east by San Francisco Bay, making it particularly vulnerable to flooding and erosion caused by sea level rise. 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 10 9 9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 We i g h t e d R a n k P e r c e n t a g e V a l u e Hazard Types Hazards by Rank 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 112 The cause of current climate change is largely human activity, burning fossil fuels, natural gas, oil, and coal. Burning these materials releases greenhouse gases into Earth’s atmosphere. Greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun’s rays inside the atmosphere causing Earth’s average temperature to rise. This rise in the planet's temperature was formerly called, “global warming”, but climate change has shown to include both intense heat and cold shifts. The warming of the planet impacts local and regional climates. Throughout Earth's history, climate has continually changed; however, when occurring naturally, this is a slower process that has taken place over hundreds and thousands of years. The human influenced climate change that is happening now is occurring at an abnormally faster rate with devastating results. GLOBAL OBSERVED AND PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND RISKS The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. The IPCC also reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change. In their Sixth Assessment Report from 20221, the following observations were made: • Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. • Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans. • Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming, climate change will lead to numerous risks to natural and human systems. • The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming. • Multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions. A 2020 study by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 2 confirmed that climate models are getting future warming projects right, finding the following: • If global warming transiently exceeds 1.5°C in the coming decades or later, then many human and natural systems will face additional severe risks. • An estimated 60% of today’s methane emissions are the result of human activities. The largest sources of methane are agriculture, fossil fuels, and decomposition of landfill waste. 1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers, 2022. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/resources/spm-headline-statements/ 2 Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right, 2020. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate -models-are -getting-future-warming-projections- right/ l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 113 • The concentration of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled over the past 200 years. Scientists estimate that this increase is responsible for 20 to 30% of climate warming since the Industrial Revolution (which began in 1750). • According to the most recent National Climate Assessment, droughts in the Southwest and heat waves (periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks) are projected to become more intense, and cold waves less intense and less frequent. • The last eight years have been the hottest years on record for the globe. Figure 3.2: NASA Global Temperature Change CO2 Gas Source: NASA Global Climate Change, 2022 Figure 3.3: NASA Global Temperature Change 1884 to 2022 Source: NASA Global Climate Change, 2022 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ ATMOSPHERIC METHANE CONCENTRATIONS SINCE 1984 Data source Data frorn NOAA, measured from a globa l networK of a,r sampling sites c g :ZS 1soo ------,------+-----"7'1-""'-----+- m 0. "' ~ 1750 ---~--~-,:e_-+-----~------+- £', I Ll 1100 -----,,.c...,-------+--------,-------+-- 1650 19M 2000 2010 ?020 YfcAR TIME SERIES: 1884 TO 2022 Data source: NASNGISS Credit: NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio 420 4 00 c ~ 380 E 11. "1 360 t: ! 6 340 [J 320 \!160 19 70 YEAR 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 114 Drought • The 22-year-long megadrought in southwestern US was the driest the territory had experienced in at least 1,200 years and was expected to persist. Sea Level Rise • Global sea levels are rising as a result of human-caused global warming, with recent rates being unprecedented over the past 2,500-plus years. • U.S. sea levels are projected to rise 1 to 6.6 Feet by 2100. (Note: Global sea levels have risen about 8 inches (0.2 meters) since reliable record-keeping began in 1880. By 2100, scientists project that it will rise at least another foot (0.3 meters), but possibly as high as 6.6 feet (2 meters) in a high-emissions scenario.) • Sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is expected to continue decreasing, and the Arctic Ocean will very likely become essentially “ice-free” in late summer seasons if current projections hold. This change is expected to occur before mid-century. • An indicator of changes to the projected sea level rise is the Arctic Sea ice minimum over time. Arctic Sea ice to this extent both affects and is affected by global climate change. Figure 3.4: NASA Global Temperature Change Sea Level Source: NASA Global Climate Change, 2022 Wildfire • Warming temperatures have extended and intensified wildfire season in the West, where long-term drought in the region has heightened the risk of fires. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ SATELLITE DATA : 1993-PRESENT Data source: Satellfte sea level observations . Credit: NASA's. Goddard Spe ce Fl i ght Ce n ter 100 E 80 ,s e 60 C "al ~ 40 ~ C) iii I 20 ('!i Ql (/) 0 19 95 20 0 0 2005 RISE SINCE 1993 millimeters 2.0 10 2 0 15 2 020 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 115 • Scientists estimate that human-caused climate change has already doubled the area of forest burned in recent decades. By around 2050, the amount of land consumed by wildfires in Western states is projected to further increase by two to six times. • Even in traditionally rainy regions like the Southeast, wildfires are projected to increase by about 30%. Flooding (Precipitation) • Climate change is having an uneven effect on precipitation (rain and snow) in the United States, with some locations experiencing increased precipitation and flooding, while others suffer from drought. • On average, more winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. • Projections of future climate over the U.S. suggest that the recent trend toward increased heavy precipitation events will continue. This means that while it may rain less frequently in some regions (such as the Southwest), when it does rain, heavy downpours will be more common. Extreme Cold • The length of the frost-free season, and the corresponding growing season, has been increasing since the 1980s, with the largest increases occurring in the western United States. Climate change can also have numerous general impacts on human health (see Figure 3.5). Figure 3.5: Human Health Impacts from Climate Change Source: U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN CALIFORNIA According to the California Natural Resource Agency (CNRA), climate change is already affecting California and is projected to continue to do so well into the foreseeable future. Current and projected changes include increased temperatures, sea level rise, a reduced winter snowpack, altered precipitation patterns, and more frequent storm events. Over the long term, reducing greenhouse gases can help make these changes less severe, but the changes cannot be avoided entirely. Unavoidable climate impacts result in a variety of secondary consequences including detrimental impacts on human health and safety, economic continuity, ecosystem l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ Environmental Degradation Forced migration, civil conflict, mental health impacts, los.:s of jobs and income Extreme Heat Hei;lt;elate d illness i;ind death, card iovascular fai lure Severe Weather Injuries , fata lities, loss of hom es, mental health impa cts Water & Food Supply Impacts Ma lnutrition, dianheal disegse Degraded Living Conditions & Socia l Inequiti es Exacerbati on o f existing socia l and health in equitill:!s and vu lnerab il iti es Changes In Vector Ecology M alaria, dengue, ence pha liti s, hantavirus, Rrft: Valley f ever, Lyme diseasl:!, c:hikungunya, West Nile virus Air Pollution & Increasing Allergens Asthma, cardiovascular disease, respiratory allergies W.W QualQ:y Impacts 0.oi,ta, ~pclidiotit, ~lob_, lepbplroils, h,;,njllill a'9of bloD1J1s 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 116 integrity and provision of basic services. Climate change is being profiled in the 2023 Marin County Hazard Mitigation Plan as a standalone hazard while addressing each of the other natural hazards. Marin County is considering climate change issues when identifying future mitigation actions. California is experiencing a climate crisis that is increasingly taking a toll on the health and well- being of its people and on its unique and diverse ecosystems. Every Californian has suffered from the effects of record high temperatures, dry winters, prolonged drought, and proliferating wildfires in recent years. California’s biodiversity is threatened as alterations to habitat conditions brought about by a changing climate are occurring at a pace that could overwhelm the ability of plant and animal species to adapt. The California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) found the following indicators of climate change in California in a 2022 report3: • Since 1895, annual average air temperatures in California have increased by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (°F). Warming occurred at a faster rate beginning in the 1980s. • Recent years have been especially warm: Eight of the ten warmest years on record occurred between 2012 and 2022; 2014 was the warmest year on record. • Of all the Western states, California endured the hottest temperatures for the longest time, driving the average statewide temperature to the second warmest over the past 128 years. • Extreme heat ranks among the deadliest of all climate-driven hazards in California, with physical, social, political, and economic factors effecting the capacity of individuals, workers, and communities to adapt, and with the most severe impacts often on communities who experience the greatest social and health inequities. • Glaciers have essentially disappeared from the Trinity Alps in Northern California • In 2020, wildfire smoke plumes were present in each county for at least 46 days. • The 2022 fire season saw more fires than the previous fire season along with continued extreme drought and heat conditions. • The drought, begun in 2019, was the third statewide drought declared in California since 2000. • This drought has been marked by extreme swings; the state received record-breaking amounts of precipitation in October and December 2021 that were offset by the driest January, February, and March 2022 dating back more than 100 years. The year 2023 opened with California simultaneously managing both drought and flood emergencies. • A series of storms in late December 2022 and early January 2023 broke rural levees, disrupted power, flooded roads, downed trees, and eroded coastal land. • Sea level rise accelerates coastal erosion, worsens coastal flooding during large storms and peak tidal events, and impacts important infrastructure positioned along our state’s 1,100-mile coast. • The western drought which impacted all of California and the western United States was nearly lifted due to unseasonably heavy rains in late 2022 and early 2023. 3 2022 Report: Indicators of Climate Change in California. https://oehha.ca.gov/climate-change/epic-2022 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 117 The graph below shows the relative change, in millimeters, in sea levels at Crescent City (1933-2020), San Francisco (1900-2020), and La Jolla (1925-2020) as a result of climate change: Figure 3.6: Annual Mean Sea Level Trends Source: 2022 Report: Indicators of Climate Change in California | OEHHA The impact of climate change in California varies across the state due to diversity in biophysical setting, climate, and jurisdictional characteristics. The California Adaptation Planning Guide organized the state into climate impact regions based on county boundaries in combination with projected climate impacts, existing environmental settings, socioeconomic factors, and regional designations and organizations (see Figure 3.7). l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ -Crescent City -La Jo ll a -San Fra ncisco 100 50 -50 -100 -150 -200 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Chart: OEHHA Climate Change Indicators of California 2022 • Source: NOAA · Get the data · Download image • Created with Datawrapper 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 118 Figure 3.7: California Climate Impact Regions Source: California Adaptiation Planning Guide CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MARIN COUNTY OPERATIONAL AREA Climate change is already having significant impacts across California and the Marin County OA. Temperatures are warming, heat waves are more frequent, seas are rising and precipitation has become increasingly variable. Climate change will continue to alter Marin County OA ecosystems as a result of rising temperatures, changes in precipitation, and sea level rise, which will increase the severity and occurrence of natural hazards across the Marin County OA well into the future. Coastal cooling processes that keep temperatures down, such as fog, will continue to decrease. Rising temperatures will exacerbate drought conditions and raise the potential for significant wildfires and associated smoke as vegetation becomes drier and tree mortality increases. Forested woodlands that play a major role in carbon reduction will gradually transition into chaparral and shrublands. There will be more extreme storms and l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ ""'"" Sources : California Natural Resource Agency 0 25 50 I Cl imate Impact Reg ions 1111 1111 C__j 1111 1111 1111 1111 1111 CJ 100 Miles I I North North Coast Bay Area Cen t ra l Coast Northern Central Valley Southern Central Valley North Sierra Sout h east Sierra Sout h Coast Desert Bay-Delta Region c,u tad l>y: C.~ht1 1d1 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 119 weather events, including expanded heat waves and increased rain events with changes in precipitation, placing increased strain on levees and dams across the Marin County OA. Significant rain events will lead to an increase in flooding and the potential for severe landslides. Shoreline communities will become inundated with sea level rise, storm surge, high tide events, and potential tsunamis. Marshlands and wetlands that act as natural storm barriers will disappear as they transition into open water. Notable impacts from climate change that are already evident in the Marin County OA and surrounding region as identified in a 2020 Marin County Civil Grand Jury Report include: • From 1895-2018, the average temperature in Marin County increased by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit. • Over the past century, sea level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area rose by eight inches and has accelerated rapidly since 2011. • The threat of wildfires in 2019 was so severe that Pacific Gas and Electric shut off electric power to the County for multiple days. Climate change will continue to affect homes, businesses, infrastructure, utilities, transportation systems and agriculture across the Marin County OA. The risk to socially vulnerable populations will increase as they feel the immediate impacts of climate change more significantly and are less able to adapt to climate changes and recover from its impacts. The Marin County OA has adopted numerous planning initiatives and mitigation measures to help combat the effects of climate change across the OA. The Marin Climate Energy Partnership (MCEP), which is a partnership program including numerous Marin County jurisdictions, the County of Marin, and regional agencies, adopted a model Climate Action Plan (CAP) that is intended to support countywide strategic efforts and is currently being used to update or establish climate action plans for additional jurisdictions within Marin County. The adopted Climate Action Plan serves as the adopted plan for the unincorporated County, which was completed in 2020. The MCEP also collects data and reports on progress in meeting each County jurisdictions’ individual greenhouse gas emission targets. In October 2022, the County published the Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Unincorporated Community Emissions for the Year 2020. Marin County OA jurisdictions have already met their greenhouse reduction goals for 2020 and are about halfway to meeting the statewide goal to reduce emissions 40% below 1990 levels by the year 2030. Marin County also formed a Sea Level Marin Adaptation Response Team in 2018 and had a Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment and associated Adaptation Report completed for the County and each of its jurisdictions in 2017 as part of their Bay Waterfront Adaptation and Vulnerability Evaluation. Additional Marin County OA climate change mitigation programs and initiatives include Marin Clean Energy, Electrify Marin, the Marin Solar Project, the Marin Energy Watch Partnership, Resilient Neighborhoods, and Drawdown: Marin. 3.2.2 PARTICIPATING JURISDICTION HAZARD ASSESSMENT Each Marin County OA MJHMP participating jurisdiction and organization reviewed and approved the Top Hazards identified by the Planning Team. Each participating jurisdiction and organization then completed a more complex assessment tool to further develop their hazard assessment and prioritization. The completed Hazard Risk Assessment Tables are located in the Section 2.0: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment of the Jurisdictional or Special District Annex Profile. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 120 The planning process used the available FEMA tools to evaluate all the possible threats faced. The primary tool selected was the Hazard Risk Assessment and Prioritization Tool. This matrix allowed the participating jurisdiction or organization to assess their own level of vulnerability and mitigation capability. Each participating Jurisdiction and organization assessed the top hazards for: • Probability/Likelihood of future events or frequency • Geographic Extent • Impact to property, resources, and humans • Magnitude/Severity • Significance • Climate Change Influence • Mitigation capacity Through the threat analysis process, the most probable, frequent and devastating threats to Marin County were identified. Other threats not identified in this plan, that could potentially affect Marin County, are identified and addressed in other plans such as the County Emergency Operations Plan, functional annexes, operational response plans, and various policies and procedures. 3.3 HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT 3.3.1 DAM FAILURE Dams are manmade structures built for a variety of uses including flood protection, power generation, agriculture, water supply, and recreation. When dams are constructed for flood protection, they are usually engineered to withstand a flood with a computed risk of occurrence. For example, a dam may be designed to contain a flood at a location on a stream that has a certain probability of occurring in any one year. If prolonged periods of rainfall and flooding occur that exceed the design requirements, that structure may be overtopped and fail. Overtopping is the primary cause of earthen dam failure in the United States. Dam failure is the uncontrolled release of impounded water from behind a dam. Flooding, earthquakes, blockages, landslides, lack of maintenance, improper operation, poor construction, vandalism, and terrorism can all cause a dam to fail. Dam failure causes downstream flooding that can affect life and property. Dam failures can result from any one or a combination of the following causes: • Earthquake • Inadequate spillway capacity resulting in excess overtopping flows • Internal erosion caused by embankment or foundation leakage, or piping or rodent activity • Improper design • Improper maintenance • Negligent operation • Failure of upstream dams on the same waterway Water released by a failed dam generates tremendous energy and can cause a flood that is catastrophic to life and property. A catastrophic dam failure could challenge local response l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 121 capabilities and require evacuations to save lives. Impacts to life safety will depend on the warning time and the resources available to notify and evacuate the public. Major loss of life could result as well as potentially catastrophic effects to roads, bridges, healthcare facilities, schools, homes, and hazardous materials storage facilities. Electric generating facilities and transmission lines could also be damaged and affect life support systems in communities outside the immediate hazard area. Associated water supply, water quality and health concerns could also be an issue. Factors that influence the potential severity of a full or partial dam failure are the amount of water impounded; the density, type, and value of development and infrastructure located downstream; and the speed of failure. In general, there are three types of dams: concrete arch or hydraulic fill, earth and rockfill, and concrete gravity. Each type of dam has different failure characteristics. A concrete arch or hydraulic fill dam can fail almost instantaneously, where the flood wave builds up rapidly to a peak then gradually declines. An earth-rockfill dam fails gradually due to erosion of the breach, where a flood wave will build gradually to a peak and then decline until the reservoir is empty. A concrete gravity dam can fail instantaneously or gradually with a corresponding buildup and decline of the flood wave. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) Division of Safety of Dams (DSOD) has jurisdiction over impoundments that meet certain capacity and height criteria. Embankments that are less than six feet high and impoundments that can store less than 15 acre-feet are non- jurisdictional. Additionally, dams that are less than 25 feet high can impound up to 50 acre-feet without being jurisdictional. The Cal DWR DSOD assigns hazard ratings to large dams within the State. The following two factors are considered when assigning hazard ratings: existing land use and land use controls (zoning) downstream of the dam. Dams are classified in three categories that identify the potential hazard to life and property: • High hazard indicates that a failure would most probably result in the loss of life. • Significant hazard indicates that a failure could result in appreciable property damage. • Low hazard indicates that failure would result in only minimal property damage and loss of life is unlikely. Since 1929, the state has supervised all non-federal dams in California to prevent failure for the purpose of safeguarding life and protecting property. Supervision is carried out through the state’s Dam Safety Program under the jurisdiction of DWR. The legislation requiring state supervision was passed in response to the St. Francis Dam failure and concerns about the potential risks to the general populace from a number of water storage dams. The law requires: Examination and approval or repair of dams completed prior to August 14, 1929, the effective date of the statute. Approval of plans and specifications for and supervision of construction of new dams and the enlargement, alteration, repair, or removal of existing dams. Supervision of maintenance and operation of all dams under the state’s jurisdiction. The 1963 failure of the Baldwin Hills Dam in Southern California led the Legislature to amend the California Water Code to include within state jurisdiction both new and existing off-stream storage facilities. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 122 Dams and reservoirs subject to state supervision are defined in California Water Code §6002 through §6004, with exemptions defined in §6004 and §6025. In administering the Dam Safety Program, DWR must comply with the provisions of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). As such, all formal dam approval and revocation actions must be preceded by appropriate environmental documentation. In 1972, Congress moved to reduce the hazards from the 28,000 non-federal dams in the country by passing Public Law 92-367, the National Dam Inspection Act. With the passage of this law, Congress authorized the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to inventory dams located in the United States. The action was spurred by two disastrous earthen dam failures during the year, in West Virginia and South Dakota, that caused a total of 300 deaths. The Water Resources Development Act of 1986 (P.L 99-662) authorized USACE to maintain and periodically publish an updated National Inventory of Dams (NID). The Water Resources Development Act of 1996 (P.L. 104-303), Section 215, re-authorized periodic updates of the NID by USACE. Location and Previous Occurrences Reservoirs for water supply and the dams that impound them are integral parts of the municipal infrastructure in Marin County. Unlike most other counties in California, Marin does not import or export water through the Central Valley State and Federal water projects. The Marin Municipal Water District (MMWD) and the North Marin Municipal Water District (NMWD) operate and maintain eight major dams for municipal water supplies within their jurisdictions (see Table 3.7 ) MMWD dams include Alpine Dam, Bon Tempe Dam, Lagunitas Dam, Phoenix Dam, Peters Dam (Kent Lake), Nicasio Dam, and Soulajule Dam. NMWD maintains and operates one dam at Stafford Lake on Novato Creek for its smaller service area. None of these reservoirs generate hydroelectricity nor are they actively managed for downstream flood control. The California Water Code entrusts dam safety regulatory power to the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), Division of Safety of Dams (DSOD). Dams greater than 6-feet in height and impounding 50 acre feet or more of water, and dams greater than 25-feet in height and impounding more than 15 acre-feet of water are subject to DSOD jurisdiction. According to the California water code, owners of regulated dams are responsible for emergency preparedness with regard to potential loss of life or property. All regulated dams are inspected by DSOD annually. MMWD inspection reports are available on their website. As of 2017 DSOD classifies the public safety risk of all jurisdictional dams. Dam locations of high, significant, and low hazard dams that may affect the Marin County OA are shown in Figure 3.10 . l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 123 Table 3.7 shows dams in Marin County that could impact the OA. Table 3.7: Hazard Ranked Dams in Marin County with Potential to Impact to the OA Dam Name/ Dam Number Hazard Class Latitude Longitude Nearest City/ Distance Population At Risk Capacity (acre- feet) Dam Height Dam Owner Alpine 33-0 High 37.94 -122.64 Stinson Beach, CA 2.76 miles 10 - 100 8,892 143 Marin Municipal Water District Big Rock Ranch 437-0 High 38.05 -122.63 > 1,000 91 45 Lucasfilm, LTD Bon Tempe 33-6 High 37.96 -122.61 Fairfax, CA 2.49 miles 100 – 1,000 4,300 98 Marin Municipal Water District Lagunitas 33-2 Significant 37.95 -122.60 Kentfield, CA 2.14 miles 100 – 1,000 341 48 Marin Municipal Water District Novato Creek/ Stafford Lake 88-0 Extremely High 38.12 -122.64 Novato, CA 3.76 miles 10 - 100 140 76 North Marin County Water District Peters 33-7 High 38.00 -122.70 Lagunitas, CA 1.00 miles 0 32,900 320 Marin Municipal Water District Phoenix Lake 33-3 High 37.96 -122.58 Kentfield, CA 1.01 miles 10 - 100 612 90 Marin Municipal Water District Seeger 33-8 High 38.08 -122.76 1 - 10 22,400 115 Marin Municipal Water District Soulajule 33-9 High 38.15 -122.78 Inverness, CA 5.26 miles 1 - 10 10,700 122 Marin Municipal Water District Vonsen 430-0 High 38.18 -122.68 Sheep Ranch 6 miles 10 - 100 70 35 Private Property Table 3.7: Hazard Ranked Dams in Marin County with Potential to Impact to the OA Source: California Department of Water Resources, Division of Safety of Dams I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 124 Figure 3.8: Dams in and around the Marin County OA Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 Figure 3.9 illustrates the Dam Failure risk to Marin County. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 125 Figure 3.9: Marin County Dam Inundation Susceptibility to Critical Facilities Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN ,/ a ~ • .o,nl Reyes NaUonal Seashore Marin County Dam Inundation • • • OIIICIOF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT San Pablo Bay WIidiife Area Legend e Dams Military and Civil De fense Instal lati ons Commun ication Facil ities Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities e Wate r Supply Faci lities Airports Emergency Operations Centers Fire Stations Hospitals and Medical Facilities Police/ Sheriff Stations Schools Hazards Group D Dam I nundation 0 2 .5 ~5 -10 Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Ba ker-Cohn emai l: OEM _GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Pr inted: 11/20/23 County of Marin, canfornia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Technologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA, County of Marin, Ca liforn ia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garm in, SafeGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 126 California has had about 45 failures of non-federal dams. The failures occurred for a variety of reasons, the most common being overtopping. Other reasons include specific shortcomings in the dams themselves or an inadequate assessment of surrounding geomorphologic characteristics. California’s first notable dam failure was in 1883 in Sierra County, while the most recent failure occurred in 1965. The most catastrophic event was the failure of William Mulholland’s infamous St. Francis Dam, which failed in 1928 and killed an estimated 450 people, only slightly fewer than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The actual number of dead from the St. Francis Dam failure was likely substantially higher. San Francisquito Canyon, which was flooded in the event, was home to hundreds of transients and illegal immigrants who were never accounted for in the death totals. In February 2017 California witnessed the failure of the spillway and emergency spillway at Lake Oroville leading to the evacuation of 188,000 people from the downstream inundation area. Situations like this, overtopping and erosion of a dam’s face as a result of flows exceeding the capacity of spillway is another mechanism of dam failure, however reservoir inflows in the Marin County OA do not have to accommodate the volatility of melting snowpack that occurs in the Sierra Nevada foothills. There is no record of a failure of any regulated dam located in the Marin County OA. Impacts Areas of Marin County could be significantly impacted by a failure of any one of its high hazard dams. Inundation maps are based on a hypothetical failure of a dam or critical appurtenant structure and the information depicted on the maps is approximate. Phoenix Lake Dam Failure of the Phoenix Lake Dam with Phoenix Lake at full capacity could flood about five miles along Ross Creek down to the Town of Ross, part of San Anselmo where Ross Creek meets Corte Madera Creek, along Corte Madera Creek to unincorporated Kentfield, through the edge of Larkspur and Corte Madera and out into San Pablo Bay. Inundation maps and a discussion of vulnerability for San Anselmo, Ross, Larkspur and Corte Madera can be found in their respective Annexes. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 127 Figure 3.10: Phoenix Lake Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 In the unlikely event of a dam failure associated with Phoenix Lake Dam, floodwaters could reach the commercial center of Kentwood in approximately half an hour, inundating it up to five feet in some areas. Sections of critical infrastructure, including Sir Francis Drake Boulevard and several medical facilities could flood as a result of this dam failure. Dozens of homes and apartment complexes, numerous commercial buildings and community facilities, the Kent Middle School, part of the College of Marin-Kentfield Campus including the College of Marin Police Department station, and the Marin County Sherriff’s Office Kentfield Substation could all experience flooding. Phoenix Lake Dam l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 128 Figure 3.11: Phoenix Lake Dam Inundation Area – Kentfield North Source: California Department of Water Resources l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN ----__ ., __ ·---•·---____ ,.. ____ tft<-.i ------ a ~ □Cir)'..,_.., 0F1oodlnCllo-.Y AoadO.plf>(ftl □, □, □• D• □• o,.w Ou.~ Du·~ CJ21..2& DATE: 10/25/20111 RGUR£A•l :MUIMUM INUNDATION DEPTH n..,,,,,..o.,..s...,.,,1 ...... <W1.,,,~ P•~lo{S .., _______ ,. ___ ,.,_ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 129 Figure 3.12: Phoenix Lake Dam Inundation Area – Kentfield South Source: California Department of Water Resources l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN ----__ ., __ ·--··---__ ,_,.... ____ ..,...., ------- a ~ □oo,­ □~---r AoodDepltl (l'll □, □, □• D• D• □••W Ou.15 Du·~ c:J21 .M DATE:10/25/2018 FIGUREA-1: MAXIMUM INUNDATION DEPTM """"1tu a,., 8~/nt11tUlo?NM.¥ l\lgt3of5 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 130 Novato Creek/Stafford Lake Dam Failure of the Novato Creek Dam with Stafford Lake at full capacity would affect an area that extends approximately five miles down Novato Creek through parts of the unincorporated County and the City of Novato to San Pablo Bay at Bel Marin Keys. Inundation maps and a discussion of vulnerability for Novato can be found in Annex I. Figure 3.13: Novato Creek/ Stafford Lake Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 Parts of Ohair Park adjacent to the dam and along Novato Creek could be immediately inundated with up to ten feet of water. After passing through Novato, floodwaters could reach the Novato RV Park in approximately two hours and some businesses and the Novato Fire Protection District Station 62 along Atherton Avenue in the Green Point area in approximately ten to fifteen hours, inundating them in over ten feet of water. Floodwaters could reach Bel Marin Keys in ten to fifteen hours. While most homes in Bel Marin Keys should be protected from floodwaters, some homes could be flooded up to several feet. Parts of Bel Marin Keys Boulevard could become flooded in several feet of water, possibly turning Bel Marin Keys into an island temporarily. A PG&E substation at Hamilton Wetlands along with the Bel Marin Gardens Hospital could be inundated with several feet of water. Novato Creek/ Stafford Lake Dam l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 131 Figure 3.14: Novato Creek Dam Inundation Area – Green Point and Bel Marin Keys Source: California Department of Water Resources l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 132 Bon Tempe Dam Failure of the Bon Tempe Dam with Kent Lake at full capacity could result in flooding in unincorporated areas of West Marin County, stretching about 10 miles from the reservoir down to Point Reyes Station at Highway 1 and into Tomales Bay. Figure 3.15: Bon Tempe Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 On its path, floodwaters could extend up San Geromino Creek in approximately one hour, flooding dozens of homes and buildings along the creek in Lagunitas and Forest Knolls in a depth up to fifty feet in some areas. Floodwaters from the creek could extend into the western edges of San Geronimo in approximately one and half hours, impacting several shelters, the San Geronimo Valley Community the San Geronimo Valley School, and the Lagunitas School with a depth of several feet. Bon Tempe Dam l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 133 Figure 3.16: Bon Tempe Dam Inundation Area – Lagunitas-Forest Knolls-San Geronimo Area Source: California Department of Water Resources Further down Lagunitas Creek, water could flood parts of Samuel P. Taylor State Park including camping areas. Water could flood around five miles of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard along Lagunitas Creek and several dozen buildings along the road including the PG&E substation at Tocaloma. Floodwaters could extend down Platform Bridge Road towards Point Reyes Petaluma Road at a depth up to fifty feet in some areas. Eventually the inundation area could reach Point Reyes Station, with floodwaters extending into the southern end of the community around Highway 1 in the commercial core at a depth of several feet including the Marin County Point Reyes Fire Station, The Marin County Sherrif’s Office Point Reyes Substation and the West Marin Elementary School. Floodwaters could reach up to thirty feet in some areas surrounding Point Reyes Station. Floodwaters could eventually reach Tomales Bay in approximately six hours, impacting the Tomales Bay estuary with an influx of fresh water. The unincorporated community of Inverness could experience a surge from Tomales Bay, with flooding up to several feet in residences, marinas, hotels, and other facilities along Sir Francis Drake Boulevard including the main commercial area. Inundation from Tomales Bay could also impact some homes and businesses on the east side of the Bay, including up Walker Creek and around Nick’s Cove, Marshall, and Marconi in up to ten feet of water. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ A•1:MAXIMUM FLOOD DEPTH &,tT,.,,.,...o ... s ......i.1,u,,.Nt;.,,,At,,p Piig,6af2<J --______ ,. ___ ,.,_ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 134 Figure 3.17: Bon Tempe Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station Area South Source: California Department of Water Resources Figure 3.18: Bon Tempe Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station Area North and Inverness Source: California Department of Water Resources l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN -D--._ __ .,.Oil ======= =--...:::-..:::.-----:::=:-.:.:::::,=: a ~ -M.;.,rH.....,.. lib.-ADadOc,rtt,(11\ □••W -ll•:16 -111.,....,.. □1 c:J1.1.-U CJM ,40 ...,_..11_ 2 0U1 -211 CJ .u -u 1.« .. T,.fflc Os -20 -2&•"6 ·&0 D• -2'8 -to-:.50 □• _...,"ieli_,.. -· --~pt11(1t1 Ds-10 -tt -u -ltlp-,s □, c:Jll •l&c:]ll -40 Ma/O<R-2 011 -211 D u -•~ i.«.nafflc Di 20 -2a -ote -ao □, ..... ,o.:.eo □• A-1:MA.llMUMFl00DDO'Jlt &>n1t.,,..o. ... enw111 .. 11~.:1iit""'At,, Pil8"'Jl•1fl() A-1: M.UIMUM FlOOD DEPTH &i.Tr"'f""O.mBnwll /1<11...,_Mq ,,..,,oif10 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 135 Peters Dam Failure of the Peters Dam with Kent Lake at full capacity could result in flooding in unincorporated areas of West Marin County with similar impacts as a failure of the Bon Tempe Dam but to a different extent. Figure 3.19: Peters Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 While floodwaters could extend up San Geronimo Creek in approximately half an hour and flood dozens of homes in Lagunitas and Forest Knolls in a depth up to twenty feet in some areas, the floodwaters are not expected to reach San Geronimo. Peters Dam l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 136 Figure 3.20: Peters Dam Inundation Area – Lagunitas-Forest Knolls Area Source: California Department of Water Resources 1 ~<?U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 137 Water could flood parts of Samuel P. Taylor State Park including camping areas. Water could flood around five miles of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard along Lagunitas Creek and several dozen buildings along the road to a depth of several feet. Floodwaters could extend down Platform Bridge Road towards Point Reyes Petaluma Road. Eventually the inundation area could reach Point Reyes Station at approximately one hour after dam failure. Floodwaters could extend at a depth of several feet into the southern end of the community around Highway 1 and up to thirty feet in surrounding areas but would not reach as far as with a failure of the Bon Tempe Dam. Numerous homes and businesses in the commercial core of Point Reyes Station could still be flooded. Floodwaters could eventually reach Tomales Bay in approximately an hour and a half, impacting the Tomales Bay estuary with an influx of fresh water. The unincorporated community of Inverness could experience a surge from Tomales Bay, with flooding up to several feet in residences, marinas, hotels, and other facilities along Sir Francis Drake Boulevard including the main commercial area. Inundation from Tomales Bay could also impact some homes and businesses on the east side of the Bay, including up Walker Creek and around Nick’s Cove, Marshall, and Marconi in several feet of water. Figure 3.21: Peters Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station Area Source: California Department of Water Resources l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ A,eSt-.. Et> Clina,N,ce,,IC..• 111 ..... 6 ..... ®l'ollceS!rio,,□Cily--lJ g ,._ ~=.i~--m -- -Maj,,,Hilf,.-p -.... ,_~(ft) 01-10 -11 ·3& -Hilf,,,•,-0 1 [:Ju.u □H -40 ru;.,.-2 C)u-20Dn••~ 0 3 1!1 20 ·2&-..e -&0 □• -2!•30 -~50 □• 1\.1 : MAXIMUM FLOOD OEPTH Pritn0-B.-1./11w111»1.,,.M.p P•gt1if 16 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 138 Alpine Dam Failure of the Alpine Dam with Alpine Lake at full capacity could result in flooding in unincorporated areas of West Marin County along a similar path as a failure of the Bon Tempe and Peters Dam but to a lesser extent. Figure 3.22: Alpine Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 Water would not extend as far out along Lagunitas Creek and would not extend up San Geronimo Creek into Lagunitas and Forest Knolls. While a failure of the dam could still flood around five miles of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard and several dozen buildings along that road including the PG&E substation at Tocaloma, the inundation area skirts the edge of Point Reyes Station where there is less of a risk for flooding of homes and facilities than with a failure of the Bon Tempe Dam or the Peters Dam. Floodwaters could reach the Point Reyes Station area around Highway 1 in approximately four hours with a depth up to ten feet in some areas. Floodwaters could eventually reach Tomales Bay in approximately six hours, impacting the Alpine Dam l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 139 Tomales Bay estuary with an influx of fresh water. Floodwaters are not expected to reach the community of Inverness or have any major flooding to residents and businesses along the east side of Tomales Bay. Figure 3.23: Alpine Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station Source: California Department of Water Resources l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ ~~~~~; qi ::i ~ rJ !El ;;t □D □D □D 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 140 Lagunitas Dam Failure of the Lagunitas Dam with Lake Lagunitas at full capacity could result in flooding in unincorporated areas of West Marin County along a similar path as a failure of the Bon Tempe, Peters, and Alpine Dams but to a much lesser extent. Water would stay mostly confined to Lagunitas Creek before it reached Tomales Bay in approximately 32 hours and no major flooding impacts would be expected. Figure 3.24: Lagunitas Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 Lagunitas Dam l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 141 Seeger Dam Failure of the Seeger Dam with Nicasio Reservoir at full capacity could send water several miles down Novato Creek to Lagunitas Creek and could result in flooding in unincorporated areas of West Marin County. Figure 3.25: Seeger Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 Floodwaters could extend down Lagunitas Creek and Point Reyes Petaluma Road, eventually reaching the commercial core of Point Reyes Station at approximately one hour after dam failure. Floodwaters could extend to a depth of several feet into the southeastern end of the community inundating numerous homes and businesses and could extend to a depth up to thirty feet in surrounding area. Floodwaters could travel down Sir Francis Drake Boulevard, inundating it in several feet of water, before eventually reaching Tomales Bay in approximately 45 minutes. The Tomales Bay estuary would be inundated with an influx of fresh water. The unincorporated community of Inverness could experience flooding of a few feet in residences, marinas, hotels, and other facilities along Sir Francis Drake Boulevard including in the main commercial area. Seeger Dam l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 142 Figure 3.26: Seeger Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station East Source: California Department of Water Resources 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ;i :=: :: ~ A 100 11 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ : ~ ~ H DOD I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 143 Figure 3.27: Seeger Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station West Source: California Department of Water Resources 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ : : : ~ ~ 100 11 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ID ::I ~ R ~ ODO I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 144 Floodwaters could also extend up Lagunitas Creek and Platform Bridge Road to Sir Francis Drake Boulevard at approximately half an hour and extend as far south as the edge of Samuel P. Taylor State Park before becoming contained in the creek. Both roadways could flood in several places with up to fifty feet of water. Several dozen buildings along both roads including the PG&E substation at Tocaloma could be inundated with several feet of water. Big Rock Ranch Dam Failure of the Big Rock Ranch Dam with Big Rock Ranch Lake at full capacity could send water several miles down Nicasio Creek. Figure 3.28: Big Rock Ranch Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 Water could flood sections of Lucas Valley Road in up to five feet of water in some places and could flood several homes in several feet of water. Floodwaters could eventually reach Nicasio Valley Road in approximately eighty minutes and then be contained in the creek without impacting the community of Nicasio. l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 14 5 Fi g u r e 3. 29 : B i g R o c k R a n c h D a m I n u n d a t i o n A r e a E a s t So u r c e : C a l i f o r n i a D e p a r t m e n t o f W a t e r R e s o u r c e s Dam Name: Big Roc k Ranch DSOD No .: 437.000 NID No.: CA0 1457 Dam Owner: Skywalker Prope rti es Ltd . LLC County: Marin Failu re Scenario : Sunny Day Breach Projection: NAD 83 California Teale Albers (US Feet) Horizontal Datum : NAD83, GRS 1980 Spheroid Vertical Da tum : NAVD88 Floodihg Illa! ii oonflned within a et·u,111W1&I btJI not•~ wllh., the lnuMatlon bt11.11.iary Mil')' uintinue beytind the ln~l!IUi:s, bOul'ldllry. Q 500 1,000 2.00° I ~ -Feet ;,::""""> 1:12,000 I Dewberry· Modi!! Dale: 1111!i1"2019 M.!!p Da~.11/1Bl2019 """""' Coon/)' J' ;Sojiin., 'CWniy ;-· Co,lfr.Bfa.O!tli ~~ General Fl ow Direction Legend [=1 1-foot Depth Inundation Extent -1 0 -~~ :i~:t::;v•I Time to 1-foot 0 Ref erence Location ■ Structure Maximum Wat.er Depth Value (foot) High : 19.4 • Low : 0.0 Big Rock Ranch Dam Breach Analysis Exhibit 2-1 Sunny Day Breach Scenario Flood Depth and Arriva l Time Marin Coun ty, CA h ·)> ~ ;;,c--< --< z ~ Cf) 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 14 6 Fi g u r e 3. 30 : B i g R o c k R a n c h D a m I n u n d a t i o n A r e a W e s t So u r c e : C a l i f o r n i a D e p a r t m e n t o f W a t e r R e s o u r c e s Dam Name: Big Roc k Ra nch DSOD No.: 437 .000 NID No.: CA01457 Dam Owner: S kywalker Properties Ltd . LLC County: Marin Failure Scenario : Sunny Day Brea ch Projection: NAD 83 California Tea le Albers (US Feet) Horizontal Datum : NAD83, GRS 1980 Spheroid Vertical Dat um : NAVD88 Floodrlg that i!I; canfil'H!!d within a du11'1'!el blA nots~ ~In lh1!' ll'All'ldallon bounda,y may conUrnJe bey'OOd the lntmallM boondaty. 0 500 1,000 1:12 ,000 2,000 Feet I Dewberry· Model oaie: 1111BJ"2□19 Mapoate.1111&'2019 s@MO 'Qi;;r)1y: ~~ Genera l Flow Direc ti on Lege nd [=1 14 foot Depth Inundation Extant -10-~:;~ :,~:~::val Time to 1•fOOl 0 Reference Location ■ Structure Maximum Water Depth Value (feat l High: 19.4 • Low : 0.0 B ig Rock Ranch Dam Breach Analysis Exhibit 2-2 Sunny Da y B reac h Scenari o Flood Depth and Arriv al Time Ma r i n County, CA h ·)> ~ ;;,c--< --< z~ Cf) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 147 Soulajule Dam Failure of the Big Rock Ranch Dam with Soulajule Reservoir at full capacity could send water several miles down Walker Creek in a mostly rural area of western Marin County. Figure 3.31: Soulajule Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 Marshall Petaluma Road could become inundated with up to forty feet of water where it runs along Walker Creek and part of Salmon Creek, with several buildings along the road to the east and west of the intersection of Arroya Sausal Road becoming inundated with several feet of water. Parts of the Marin County Office of Education at Walker Creek Ranch and the Walker Creek Ranch itself could be inundated with up to twenty feet of water in approximately half an hour after dam failure. Soulajule Dam l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 148 Figure 3.32: Soulajule Dam Inundation Area around Soulajule Dam Source: California Department of Water Resources Floodwaters along Walker Creek could eventually reach Highway 1 south of Tomales in approximately three hours, inundating the roadway with several feet of water before emptying into Tomales Bay in approximately three and half hours. There are a few residences and other buildings along Walker Creek and Highway 1 that could be impacted by floodwaters several feet deep. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN ---------n-__ ., __ , __ ... __ _ a ~ A-1:MAXIMUM FlOODDEPTM s.i..u,oJ,,D-8MadtJ1rw .. <Mta>nA~ P,~JefS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 149 Figure 3.33: Soulajule Dam Inundation Area – Walker Creek at Highway 1 Source: California Department of Water Resources Figure 3.34: Soulajule Dam Inundation Area – Walker Creek at Highway 1 and Tomales Bay Source: California Department of Water Resources l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN __ .. ___ ·------ a ~ -llbie>•Hietl-,,. ............,,_O,ptt,(fl) c:)1.10 -ll ·35 -t¥..a-ys D 1 [:]11 .111 c::J,s.,o ,..,-. 2 Q a .20 c::J u .u 03 :K>•2!1 -4a •li0 §: -:16 ·30-► 50 -Ma)c>tHigl,d)'I lb ..... mrll>OdDePltl(fll c:Jg.10 -ll•H _.....,.. c:J i c:Ju.:l!i c:):M -•O ...,._ 2 0 26 ·20c:J 41 •411 0 3 20 .25 -46 .50 B: •:l&·J0-►50 A•l :MAllMUM ROOD DEPrH Sor,1'1/llh o-Bn'lldt "'""""/.,,. Map P.grl<fS A-1: MAXIMUM FLOOD DEPTH Sm.Iii/ult 0... BM!dt /11w11dtrbn }.up P.gr511fS _______ ,. ____ ,. __ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 150 Vonsen Dam Failure of the Vonsen Dam could inundate several homes around the dam and along San Antonio Creek for several hundred feet with up to a foot of water before floodwaters are contained within the creek. Figure 3.35: Vonsen Dam Inundation Area Source: Cal OES, Department of Water Resources, DSOD, 11/27/23 Vonsen Dam l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 151 Figure 3.36: Vosen Dam Inundation Area Source: California Department of Water Resources Extent and Probability According to the 1988 Town of Ross General Plan Safety Element, “in 1974, a seismic stability analysis of Phoenix Lake Dam was conducted for the Marin Municipal Water District. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of seismically induced flooding associated with failure of Phoenix Lake Dam. The earth dam was constructed just prior to the 1906 earthquake, which created a landslide on the inside portion of the dam embankment. The slope stability analysis conducted in 1974 concluded that the dam spillway could settle from 4 – 6 feet during an earthquake with a Richter magnitude of 8.5 generated along the San Andreas fault. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake had a Richter magnitude of 8.3…In response to this assessment, the Marin Municipal Water District has widened the spillway by 5 to 6 feet and has lowered the spillway by 6 feet. Accordingly, these improvements to the dam have reduced the flood risk to one flood in 30,000 years.” According to MMWD, “the dam has been modified several times in the last 100 years including increased height of fill, outlet works changes, an embankment buttress fill in the 1960s and a new spillway, designed for a spillway design flood with a recurrence interval of once in 10,000 years or so, and an increase in freeboard in the mid-1980s.” The Town of Ross’s 2017 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan states “the dam is inspected yearly by the California Division of Safety of Dams and has been rated by that agency as acceptable for continued operation. Their rating for the facility is 3C, there is a potential for damage should the dam fail but that the dam is in good condition for its age. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ SUNNY DAY BREACH INUNDATION MAP -VONSEN DAM CA State Dam No. 430 NID No. CA 00592 Simulation Date March 28, 2021 Map Preparation Date July 28, 2021 Failure Scenerio -Sunny Day Failure XIMATEAND OR PONSE . 0 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 152 “MMWD has a comprehensive Dam Safety Program to ensure all of the MMWD dams and spillways are safe and functioning properly. This program includes three main components: monitoring, routine inspections and maintenance, and emergency preparedness and response planning. The district also works closely with state and federal regulators and local emergency response partners to ensure public safety. MMWD produced a February 13, 2017 inspection report documenting the current conditions. “The Phoenix Lake Dam is over 100 years old. According to ABAG, when a dam in known to have a failure potential, the water level is reduced to allow for partial collapse without loss of water as required by the State Division of Safety of Dams and by safety protocols established by dam owners. Thus, the probability of failure resulting in damage from the inundation is low.” According to the City of Novato’s 2011 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan, a seismic stability analysis prepared for the North Marin Water District by Woodward-Clyde Consultants in 1992 confirmed the Stafford Dam was designed to withstand a magnitude 8.25 Richter earthquake on the San Andreas Fault, with a design epicenter located 10 miles from the dam. Table 3.8: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Dam Failure Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Unlikely Negligible Extreme Low Medium 9.00 City of Belvedere Unlikely Negligible Extreme High High 12.00 Town of Corte Madera Unlikely Negligible Weak None None 3.00 Town of Fairfax None None None None None 0.00 City of Larkspur Unlikely Limited Severe Low Low 8.00 City of Mill Valley None None None None None 0.00 City of Novato Unlikely Significant Severe Low Low 9.00 Town of Ross Unlikely Limited Severe Low Medium 9.00 Town of San Anselmo Unlikely Negligible Weak Low Low 5.00 City of San Rafael None None None None None 0.00 City of Sausalito None None None None None 0.00 Town of Tiburon Unlikely Negligible Extreme None Medium 8.00 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 153 Bolinas Public Utility District Unlikely Limited Extreme Medium Medium 11.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District None None None None None 0.00 North Marin Water District Unlikely Extensive Extreme High High 15.00 Southern Marin Fire District None None None None None 0.00 Table 3.8: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Dam Failure Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts Vulnerability Because of the catastrophic nature of the threat of dam inundation, dams tend to be built conservatively and the actual likelihood of either dam overflow or dam failure are extremely low. The Phoenix Lake and Novato Creek Dams in particular are expected to withstand an earthquake at least magnitude 8.2 on the San Andreas Fault, which is a rare magnitude to encounter. Earthquakes of a magnitude 8.0 or greater are expected once every 494 years in California according to USGS. The areas of unincorporated Marin County most vulnerable to the threat of a dam failure are those areas most like to be impacted by one. Several incorporated jurisdictions in the Marin County OA would be affected by a failure of either the Phoenix Lake or Novato Creek Dams, and their vulnerability assessments can be found in their respective Annexes. The community of Point Reyes Station and the surrounding area lies in the inundation path of several dams including the Bon Tempe, Peters, Alpine, Lagunitas, and Seeger Dams. Major roadways, including Highway 1, Sir Francis Drake Boulevard, Platform Bridge Road and Point Reyes Road are particularly vulnerable to a failure of any one of these dams which would limit access to the communities of Point Reyes Station and Inverness from the south. Residences, businesses, critical facilities, and other buildings around the Point Reyes and Inverness areas and along the eastern and western shores of Tomales Bay that are not built to withstand the depth and velocity of floodwaters from a dam failure would be most vulnerable, including older buildings and those that are not elevated. A failure of the PG&E substation at Tocaloma could cause power outages throughout the area. Older docking facilities along Tomales Bay are particularly vulnerable to a surge in Tomales Bay as a result of a dam failure. The communities of Lagunitas and Forest Knolls and to a lesser extend the community of San Geronimo are also susceptible to a failure of the Bon Tempe and Peters Dams. With flooding of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard, these communities would effectively be cut off from the west. Residences, businesses, schools, and other buildings in these communities that are not elevated to withstand the depth of floodwaters are most susceptible. The community of Kentwood is vulnerable to a failure of the Phoenix Lake Dam, particularly the areas closest to Corte Madera Creek. Residences, businesses, commercial facilities, and critical facilities around the College of Marin Kentfield Campus that are not elevated to withstand floodwaters are particularly susceptible. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 154 Areas of Green Point would be most susceptible to a failure of the Novato Creek Dam, as most of Bel Marin Keys should avoid major flooding. Buildings that are not elevated and those that are not as able to withstand the velocity of floodwaters from a dam failure, such as mobile home parks, would be most susceptible. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Most dams in the United States are aging and are at significant risk from increased storm events as a result of climate change. The average dam age in the United States is 60 years, and more than 8,000 dams in the United States including the Phoenix Lake Dam are over 90 years old. More than 200 U.S. dams have failed in bad weather since 2000. As the climate warms, rain events are predicted to become more intense. An increase in rainfall and runoff as a result of climate change will increase the potential for higher water levels in reservoirs across the Marin County OA, placing increased stress on its dams and increasing the potential for a dam failure. As development increases in the populated areas of the Marin County OA downstream of its dams, particularly in the inundation area of the Phoenix Lake Dam, the potential for significant impacts to residents and infrastructure will only increase. 3.3.2 DEBRIS FLOW For the purposes of the Marin County OA MJHMP, debris flows are classified as landslides (including rockslides) and mud flows. A landside is the breaking away and gravity-driven downward movement of hill slope materials, which can travel at speeds ranging from fractions of an inch per year to tens of miles per hour depending on the slope steepness and water content of the rock/soil mass. Landslides range from the size of an automobile to a mile or more in length and width and, due to their sheer weight and speed, can cause serious damage and loss of life. The rate of a landslide is affected by the type and extent of vegetation, slope angle, degree of water saturation, strength of the rocks, and the mass and thickness of the deposit. Some of the natural causes of this instability are earthquakes, weak materials, stream and coastal erosion, and heavy rainfall. In addition, certain human activities tend to make the earth materials less stable and increase the chance of ground failure. These activities include extensive irrigation, poor drainage or groundwater withdrawal, removal of stabilizing vegetation and over-steepening of slopes by undercutting them or overloading them with artificial fill. These activities can cause slope failure, which normally produce landslides. Landslide material types are often broadly categorized as either rock or soil, or a combination of the two for complex movements. Rock refers to hard or firm bedrock that was intact and in place prior to slope movement. Soil, either residual or transported material, means unconsolidated particles. The distinction between rock and soil is most often based on interpretation of geomorphic characteristics within landslide deposits but can also be inferred from geologic characteristics of the parent material described on maps or in the field. Landslide movements are also based on the geomorphic expression of the landslide deposit and source area, and are categorized as falls, topples, spreads, slides, or flows. Falls are masses of soil or rock that dislodge from steep slopes and free fall. Topples move by the forward pivoting of a mass around an axis below the displaced mass. Lateral spreads move by horizontal extension and shear or tensile fractures. Slides displace masses of material along one or more discrete planes and can either be rotational or transitional. Flows mobilize as a deforming, viscous mass without a discrete failure plane. Natural conditions that contribute to landslide include the following: l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 155 • Degree of slope • Water (heavy rain, river flows, or wave action) • Unconsolidated soil or soft rock and sediments • Lack of vegetation (no stabilizing root structure) • Previous wildfires and other forest disturbances • Earthquake In addition, many human activities tend to make the earth materials less stable and, thus, increase the chance of ground movement. Human activities contribute to soil instability through grading of steep slopes or overloading them with artificial fill, by extensive irrigation, construction of impermeable surfaces, excessive groundwater withdrawal, and removal of stabilizing vegetation. Another hazard related to landslide and erosion is the fall of a detached mass of rock from a cliff or down a very steep slope (rockfall). Weathering and decomposition of geological materials produce conditions favorable to rockfalls. Other causes include ice wedging, root growth, or ground shaking (earthquake). Destructive landslides and rockfalls usually occur very suddenly with little or no warning time and are short in duration. Landslides can cause high mortality and injuries from rapidly flowing water and debris. The most common cause of death in a landslide is trauma or suffocation by entrapment. Broken power, water, gas or sewage pipes can also result in injury or illness in the population affected, such as water-borne diseases, electrocution or lacerations from falling debris. People affected by landslides can also have short- and long-term mental health effects due to loss of family, property, livestock or crops. Landslides can also greatly impact the health system and essential services, such as water, electricity or communication lines. Landslide susceptibly can be characterized by looking at both slope class and rock strength. Landslide susceptibility classes express the generalization that on very low slopes, landslide susceptibility is low even in weak rock, and that landslide susceptibility increases with slope and in weaker rocks. Very high landslide susceptibility includes very steep slopes in hard rocks and moderate to very steep slopes in weak rocks. Figure 3.39 shows landslide susceptibility classes. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 156 Figure 3.37: Landslide Susceptibility Classes Source: USGS A mud flow is a general term for a mass-movement landform and process characterized by a flowing mass of fine-grained earth material with a high degree of fluidity. Heavy rainfall, snowmelt, or high levels of groundwater flowing through cracked bedrock may trigger a movement of soil or sediments. Floods and debris flows may also occur when strong rains on hill or mountain slopes cause extensive erosion and/or what is known as "channel scour". Some broad mud flows are rather viscous and therefore slow; others begin very quickly and continue like an avalanche. Mud flows are composed of at least 50% silt and clay-sized materials and up to 30% water. The point where a muddy material begins to flow depends on its grain size and the water content. Fine grainy material or soil has a smaller friction angle than a coarse sediment or a debris flow, but falling rock pieces can trigger a material flow, too. When a mud flow occurs it is given four named areas, the 'main scarp', in bigger mud flows the 'upper and lower shelves', and the 'toe'. See Figure 3.40 for the typical areas of a mud flow, with shelves (right) and without (left). The main scarp will be the original area of incidence, the toe is the last affected area(s). The upper and lower shelves are located wherever there is a large dip (due to mountain or natural drop) in the mud flow's path. A mud flow can have many shelves. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY O F a ~ARIN ~ ROCK STRENGTH II m II OJ 0 0 0 en [I] en 0 V VII -( m 0 V VII ,_J u ~ p.. 0 ,_J en LAN DSLIDE S USCEPTIB JLITY C L ASSES ( 0 Ill V VI VII VIII IX X ) inaeasing susceptibility 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 157 Figure 3.38: Mud Flow Areas Source: Washington Department of Natural Resources If large enough, mud flows can devastate villages and country-sides. Mud flows are common in mountain areas prone to wildfire, where they have destroyed many homes built on hillsides without sufficient support after fires destroy vegetation holding the land. The area most generally recognized as being at risk of a dangerous mud flow are: • Areas where wildfires or human modification of the land have destroyed vegetation. • Areas where landslides have occurred before. • Steep slopes and areas at the bottom of slopes or canyons. • Slopes that have been altered for construction of buildings and roads. • Channels along streams and rivers. • Areas where surface runoff is directed. Location and Previous Occurrences Landslides are a part of natural geologic processes and have impacted both private and public property in various areas throughout Marin County since development began. Much of the Marin County OA was developed in the early 20th century prior to the implementation of grading requirements and road design standards. During this time, many of the roads in the Marin County OA were benched or cut into steep hillsides without sufficient compaction of the roadbed. Furthermore, the use of earth retaining structures was not common in roadway construction and/or retaining structures were built using wood materials that have since deteriorated. Figure 3.39 shows landslide susceptibility across the Marin County OA. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 15 8 Fi g u r e 3. 39 : L a n d s l i d e S u s c e p t i b i l i t y i n t h e M a r i n C o u n t y O A So u r c e : U S G S 7/2412 023 , 1 :33:52 P M L an dslide Susce ptiblity Classes 0 Ill t-. ' ;, ,{> .'1.'v~ .e~'.' ...J V L....-V II I VJ -IX V II •x ,,, ' San Psbl.o Bay Wil dlife A r ea ~-, __ _ -..... ) t·lc ··a CE ·-,.....___ ___ / Va ll 0 @ o 1 :4 8 9 ,055 3.5 7 '...,._....,......_,....,_,JL...,-_._.--..,_....,__'.;·14 mi 0 5 10 20 km DOOCG S _ Cm.nty al t.t1 rT1 C~rtom 1,, S:;il\"? P.,i rk!.. Eron; lf5R,E . G.:ill"'ll ln . S.:..f~r.:iµh, ;:,v;J, M CT Lil\.!\SA, Os.GS. IBLreau c..-.f Land M:m ;ig,.ml!:rrl , ,[PA, h ·)> ~ ;;,c -< --< z~ Cf) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 159 Figure 3.40: Marin County Landslide Susceptibility for Critical Facilities Map Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Legend • Dams Fire Stations • Military and Civil Hospitals and Medical Defense In stallations Facilities Communication Police/ Sheriff Stations Facil ities Schools Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities Lands lide Water Supp ly Facilities Susceptibility Ai rports Clas s Emergency Operations Ce nters Ill Marin County Landslide V VI -VII .,.,..... ... , -VIII -IX -X ... , .. , ___ , 0 2~~',,--s e om c101 . . : EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ---' 10 Miles San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area Marin County OEM / Woody Baker -C ohn ema il: OEM _GIS @MarinCounty.org LJan Date Printed: 10/30 /23 N County of Marin, California State Parks, Esri, HERE , Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Technologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA, DOC /CGS, County of Mar in, Ca lifornia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Managemen t, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 160 Several unincorporated communities in Marin County have high to extreme landslide susceptibility, which are shown below. Figure 3.41 shows landslide susceptibility in Lagunitas, Forest Knolls, San Geronimo and Woodacre. Figure 3.41: Landslide Susceptibility – Lagunitas, Forest Knolls, San Geronimo and Woodacre Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 Figure 3.42 shows landslide susceptibility in Nicasio and Tocoloma. Figure 3.42: Landslide Susceptibility – Nicasio and Tocoloma Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<?U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 161 Figure 3.43 shows landslide susceptibility in Olema and Point Reyes Station. Figure 3.43: Landslide Susceptibility – Olema and Point Reyes Station Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 Figure 3.44 shows landslide susceptibility in Inverness. Figure 3.44: Landslide Susceptibility – Inverness Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ ~ %->l),, ; ·~ · r~lr'~o a /1_.,,_· ¾,.fl,-ij ~~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 162 Figure 3.45 shows landslide susceptibility in Dillon Beach and Tomales. Figure 3.45: Landslide Susceptibility – Dillon Beach and Tomales Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 Figure 3.46 shows landslide susceptibility in Dogtown, Bolinas and Stinson Beach. Figure 3.46: Landslide Susceptibility – Dogtown, Bolinas and Stinson Beach Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ if-. ~~ ... ~ ... -~-\ -== -'.:.-----~ ' -: . \ , i 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 163 Figure 3.47 shows landslide susceptibility in the unincorporated area of Southern Marin County. Figure 3.47: Landslide Susceptibility – Southern Marin County Source: Marin County l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / Southern Marin Landslide • DIHCID I EMERGENCY • MANAGEMENT Military and Civil Defense Inst alla t ions Electric Power Facflit ies Wastewater Facilities Emergency Opera ti ons Centers Cou nty of Ma rin, Cal ifo r ~i~ S USDA, DOC/CGS Fire Stations Hospitals and Medical Facilities Police / Sheriff Stations Schools Landslide Susceptibility Class Ill V VI VII •vm •i x •x 0 .9 .,, ... r / San Francisco Bay M / Woody Baker-Cohn _:GrS @MarinCounty.org ted : 10/30/23 ~ N _ USGS, Bu rea u of Land Ma nag ement , EPA, NPS, 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 164 Figure 3.48 shows landslide susceptibility in the unincorporated area of west central Marin County. Figure 3.48: Landslide Susceptibility – West Central Marin County Source: Marin County l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ /' i'\ ~J Marin County / W Central Landslide Hospitals and Medi ca l III Facilities v Polic e/ Sheriff Stations -VI Elect ric Power Facilities Schools •vn -VIII Water Supply Facilities Land slid e Su sce ptibility -IX •x Fire Stations Class County of Marin, California State Parks , Es ,, .. , ... .._,_,,. US DA, DOC/CGS • 0IIICI0I EMERGENCY • MANAGEMENT 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 165 Figure 3.49 shows landslide susceptibility in the unincorporated area west of Novato. Figure 3.49: Landslide Susceptibility – Novato West Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Communication Electric Power Facil ities Wastewater Facilities Emergency Operations Centers Marin County / Novato West Landslide Hospitals and Medical lII f acilities V Police/ Sheriff Stations VI Schools -Vil Landslide •vm •ix Susceptibility •x Class • omc101 EMERGENCY • MANAGEMENT 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 166 Figure 3.50 shows landslide susceptibility in the unincorporated area of west central Marin. Figure 3.50: Landslide Susceptibility – West Central Marin County Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / W Central Landslide Hospitals and Medical Faci lities Police/ Sheriff Stations Electric Power Facili t ies Schools Water Supply Facilities Land slid e ~~n~!:ncy Operations Susce ptibil ity Class Co unty of Marin, Ca li fornia State Parks, Es ,- USDA, DOC /CGS III V -VI •vn •vm • ix • x • omc101 EMERGENCY • MANAGEMENT 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 167 Figure 3.51 shows landslide susceptibility in unincorporated area of North Novato. Figure 3.51: Landslide Susceptibility – North Novato Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / Novato North Landslide Landslide Susceptibility Electric Po wer Facilities Class Ill V Police / Sheriff Stations • VI -VII •vm e omc101 EMERGENCY -MANAGEMENT / 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 168 The California Geological Survey has an interactive landslide inventory map available on their website that shows records associated with past landslide events in Marin County. Figure 3.52: Landslide Inventory in the Marin County OA Source: California Geological Survey, 11/27/23 The inventory shows extensive areas of prior landslides around the county particularly in developed areas. Affected areas notably include many landslides near Bolinas Lagoon, Inverness and Bolinas (Point Reyes Station) ridges on the west coast; throughout Ross Valley including Sleepy Hollow, Fairfax and San Anselmo; San Rafael just outside downtown at Lincoln, Lock Lomond affecting many residences, San Quentin potentially affecting a wastewater treatment plant, and Bret Harte potentially affecting Highway 101; Santa Venetia affecting N. San Pedro Rd; Novato at Little Mountain and Mount Burdell affecting major roads such as Center Road, San Marin Drive and Novato Blvd and their nearby residential areas; Paradise Cay and Reed residential areas near Tiburon; and Mill Valley at Homestead Valley. Smaller scale, and/or more isolated slides occur throughout the county where there are slopes. These are typically of concern if there are roads or structures affected. A massive mudslide occurred in Marin County during a storm from January 3-5, 1982, weakening foundation of the Golden Gate Bridge. The bridge had to be closed for several days, cutting off the one road linking Marin County to San Francisco and stranding residents. Another landslide blocked Highway 101, closing it completely. The Point Reyes and Inverness areas were especially hard hit. The unincorporated community of Inverness was isolated for several days when numerous slides covered the road into town. The storm caused huge amounts of water to rush down canyons, scouring them as rocks, mud, trees and massive trunks hit roads and houses on their way downward. Inverness and Inverness Park were inundated in rocks and mud. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Ami [: 38.168 -121.799 Degrees 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 169 Figure 3.53: Damage in Inverness from the January 1982 Storm Source: Jack Mason Museum of West Marin History Twelve houses in Inverness were destroyed or damaged by mudslides, mostly in the Alder Creek Canyon area and the Vallejo Avenue area of Inverness Park. Over 300,000 cubic yards of mud was removed from public property in Inverness. The Inverness water system was destroyed when a main pipe ruptured and reservoirs were damaged. Figure 3.54: January 1982 Highway 101 Mudslide in Marin County Source: San Francisco Chronicle l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Chronicle/ Pete Breinig, 1982 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 170 From January to March of 1995, a series of winter storms caused several mudslides in Marin County, blocking roads and damaging residential and public property. Marin County sustained significant damage as a result of the Winter and Spring storms of 2006 (DR-1628 and DR-1646) which resulted in hundreds of locations in Marin County where damage occurred; many of those being landslides, rock fall, or other infrastructure damage related to slope instability. In 2011, a $1.5M emergency slide repair was constructed at the intersection of Terrace Avenue and Overlook Drive on the Bolinas Mesa to repair recent drastic settlement (up to 8-feet) such that access for emergency vehicles and resident egress could be maintained. As much as 20,000 cubic yards of material was excavated and re-compacted in lifts with earth reinforcing fabric to affect the repair. In 2014, several debris flows impacted Marin County. On February 28th, a mudslide blocked part of Highway 1 at Panoramic. On December 11th, a mudslide occurred along Tennessee Valley Road, causing $1 million in property damage. Another landslide under sixty feet of Highway 1 near Muir Beach on the same day resulted in a full closure of the road, causing $1 million in damages. Severe damage occurred during the January and February Winter storms of 2017 (DR-4305 and DR-4308) resulting in over 100 locations in Marin County where damage occurred. Landslides occurred along Highway 101 and several local roads. Figure 3.55: February 2017 Landslide on Lucas Valley Road Source: Marin County Significant damage in Marin County occurred during the January and February Winter storms of 2019 (DR-4431 and DR-4344), where a series of atmospheric rivers caused separate mudslides on Sir Francis Drake Boulevard in Lagunitas and on Highway 101 in Waldo (shutting down the road southbound). l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 171 On March 22, 2023, a mudslide severely damaged and buckled a 100-foot stretch of road on Redwood Boulevard adjacent to Highway 101 and just west of the Marin County Airport, forcing the closure of Olompali State Historic Park. The mudslide uncovered one of two PG&E gas lines but it remained intact. Figure 3.56: March 2023 Mudslide in Marin County Source: San Francisco Chronicle Impacts Marin County is largely undeveloped and has a widespread natural environment where creeks and rivers adjoin both private and public infrastructure. During times of intense rainfall, creeks tend to rise and the resulting high flows can erode roadway supporting earthen embankments leading to landslides and sometimes property damage. Historic development in the Marin County OA tends to be concentrated in small areas, with many homes located along creeks and on steep hillsides potentially impacted by precipitation-induced landslides. Thousands of existing structures have the potential to be impacted by landslides, including over ten thousand single family homes, in addition to multi-family, commercial structures, and structures on a few industrial parcels. Notably, hundreds of miles of roads are potentially impacted by landslides which can lead to their short-term closure during and after intense storm events and some power utility facilities could also be affected. Infrastructure, such as natural gas pipelines and water or wastewater infrastructure, can break or malfunction if the soil supporting them fails. This can lead to disruptions in energy delivery and water or wastewater services. Landslides, mudslides, and debris flows can move fast enough to damage or destroy homes or other structures in their path, block roadways (including evacuation routes), and injure or kill people caught in them. For most jurisdictions in the Marin County OA, at least 10% of its homes and roadways can potentially be impacted by landslides. Landslides and debris flows could also have ecological impacts for numerous waterbodies in Marin County, including Tomales Bay and the Bolinas Lagoon. Extent and Probability Slope instability throughout much of the Marin County OA is related to many factors, including, but not limited to; type(s) of soil involved and various geologic factors (presence of faults or other weakened soil planes), steepness of the slope and surrounding topography, intensity and duration of rainfall, presence of underground springs or groundwater, adequacy of surface water management, and proper erosion protection. While landslides occur in any given year, the frequency and number of landslides has been observed to be directly proportionate to the frequency and duration of rainfall events. A landslide and/or a debris flow could occur in any l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 172 unincorporated community of Marin County and throughout much of the Marin County OA due to its overall moderate to high landslide susceptibility. Landslides are less likely to occur during the fall months (October-November) when the ground is sufficiently dry and can absorb the moderate rain events typically observed during this time of year. Landslides are more often observed between December and May when rain events are usually more intense and/or frequent. Under these circumstances, the ground has been saturated, becomes heavier, and the presence of water within the soil increases the pore pressure thereby reducing the friction between soil particles – which leads to sliding. Proper drainage management to maintain existing sufficient drainage patterns (on both private and public lands) is essential to limiting potential future landslide events. In the Marin County OA, renewed and potentially widespread landslide activity will most likely occur during or after future periods of prolonged or intense rainfall. The extent of typical landslides in the Marin County OA, including in the unincorporated area, as estimated from previous occurrences, is on the order of 500 cubic yards of material displaced from an area 100 feet long and 30 feet deep. According to County engineering staff, Marin County seems to have bad slide years during heavy storms every five years. During these years, the County repairs a half dozen slides or more, so there might be a dozen bad slides across the County including incorporated areas. According to NOAA, the 5-year recurrence interval precipitation amount is 4 inches of rain in 12 hours, 5.8 inches of rain in 24 hours, or 7.6 inches of rain in 2 days. Table 3.9: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Debris Flows Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Occasional Extensive Severe Medium Medium 13.00 City of Belvedere Occasional Extensive Severe Medium Medium 13.00 Town of Corte Madera Likely Limited Severe Low Medium 11.00 Town of Fairfax Likely Limited Moderate Medium Low 10.00 City of Larkspur Likely Limited Severe Medium Medium 12.00 City of Mill Valley Likely Significant Moderate Medium High 13.00 City of Novato Likely Negligible Weak Low Low 7.00 Town of Ross Occasional Significant Moderate Medium Medium 11.00 Town of San Anselmo Likely Limited Moderate Medium Medium 11.00 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 173 City of San Rafael Highly Likely Significant Moderate Medium Medium 13.00 City of Sausalito Likely Significant Severe Medium High 14.00 Town of Tiburon Occasional Extensive Severe Medium Medium 13.00 Bolinas Public Utility District Highly Likely Limited Moderate High High 14.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Occasional Negligible Weak Low Low 6.00 North Marin Water District Occasional Significant Moderate High Medium 12.00 Southern Marin Fire District Likely Significant Moderate Low Low 10.00 Table 3.9: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Debris Flow Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts Vulnerability Landslides due to storms are a relatively frequent occurrence in many populated areas of the Marin County OA, including in the unincorporated area, making it quite vulnerable to landslides. Areas with slopes greater than 50 percent have extreme susceptibility to landslide. Areas of particular concern are those that include high elevations and steep ravines and gulches associated with river and stream channels. Numerous major roads in unincorporated Marin County, including Sir Francis Drake Boulevard, Point Reyes Petaluma Road, Marshall Petaluma Road, Nicasio Valley Road, Lucas Valley Road, Highway 1 and Highway 101 all run through areas of steep slopes where a landslide could occur. A major closure of any of these roads could cut off access to communities, particularly in western Marin County, and limit access to emergency vehicles. Many of these major roads and communities along them, such as Lucas Valley, Marinwood, Lagunitas, Forest Knolls, San Geronimo, Woodacre, Olema and Point Reyes Station, lie along creeks that could impact them with debris flows. Areas located at the base of creek alluvial fans have extreme susceptibility to mud flows, including after major fires where loose soil and ash can become deposited. Areas of particular concern are those where the widespread and lateral movement of mud and debris can occur. Areas where mud and debris can be channeled, including downslope roads and waterways, are also susceptible to mud flows. Overgrowth of vegetation in creeks and changes to natural drainage due to development can inhibit the flow of water and muddy debris, causing it to spill over creek banks and create overflow channels onto roadbeds and into adjacent communities in a debris flow or flooding event. A major wildfire and/or rain soaking event in any area of unincorporated Marin County could threaten creek-side communities with a debris flow. In addition, the Bolinas Lagoon and Highway 1 running along the east side of it lie at a natural alluvial fan of the Mount Tamalpais Watershed and could be susceptible to mud and debris from a wildfire around Mount Tamalpais. The Stinson Beach area is particularly vulnerable to any debris flows and subsequent flooding in the Bolinas Lagoon. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 174 Critical infrastructure and facilities that are built into steep slopes, including water access delivery and communication systems, are all susceptible to landslides. Populations serviced by this infrastructure and/or that live in extreme landslide susceptibility zones are subsequently susceptible as well. Numerous communication facilities and other critical infrastructure lie in areas of western Marin County where there is high landslide susceptibility. The Marin County OA is hilly and mountainous overall and the distribution of the landslide hazard is varied across the county as indicated in figure 3.40. The combination of factors that cause landslides, including geology, vegetation, local drainage, and local grading make slope a poor proxy of landslide risk. However, parcels with an average slope above 20 percent are considered hillside lots and risks of slides are present on slopes of 30 percent and above. Slopes as high as 60 or 65 percent are common on hillsides throughout the county. Numerous unincorporated communities in the Marin County OA have susceptibility to a debris flow: Lagunitas, Forest Knolls, San Geronimo and Woodacre all lie along San Geronimo Creek and a stretch of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard with high to moderate landslide susceptibility and could be vulnerable to debris flows. Numerous residences, businesses, schools and community centers lie in this area. Outlying areas of Nicasio, particularly on the west side of Nicaso Valley Road, where there are multiple residences, have high to moderate susceptibility to landslides. Tocoloma lies along a section of Lagunitas Creek and could be susceptible to debris flow. The Tocoloma PG&E substation lies adjacent to the creek. Several residences and businesses in Olema lie along Olema Creek and could be susceptible to debris flow. Point Reyes Station lies along Lagunitas Creek, though most of the buildings around the downtown core are not adjacent to the creek. There are residences and businesses in the outlying areas south of Point Reyes Station that could be susceptible to a debris flow in Lagunitas Creek. The hilly northern area of Point Reyes Station where there are residences is more susceptible to landslide. Parts of Inverness are particularly susceptible to a landslide, including the southern end where there are numerous residences, a school, and the Inverness Fire Department. Areas of Seahaven where there are numerous residences are also particularly susceptible to a landslide. Large sections of Point Reyes National Seashore where there are residences, historic ranches, and other structures lie in areas of high landslide susceptibility. Sections of the east shore of Tomales Bay along Highway 1, including north of Bivalve, from Marconi to Marshall, and from the area of Clarke Road north to Walker Creek are susceptible to a landslide. There are numerous residences and businesses along the shore, including in Marshall and at Marconi Conference Center State Historic Park (which is a critical facility), that lie in areas of high landslide susceptibility. While most of Tomales is in an area of moderate landslide susceptibility, the area is hilly and there are numerous residences, businesses, community facilities, schools, and emergency facilities susceptible to landslide. Areas of Dillon Beach where there are numerous residences have a high landslide susceptibility, particularly on the northern outlying areas of the community. Areas in and around Bolinas where there are numerous homes, schools, and community facilities have a high landslide susceptibility. The Woodrat Water Treatment Plant and associated facilities along with the Bolinas PG&E substation north of Bolinas lie in areas of moderate to high landslide susceptibility. The community of Dogtown, where there are numerous residences, lies in areas of moderate to high landslide susceptibility. There are also numerous creeks that run through Dogtown that could impact it with debris flows. Parts of l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 175 Stinson Beach, particularly northeast of Highway 1 in the foothills. where there are numerous residences, the Stinson Beach Community Center and the Stinson Beach Fire Station, lie in areas of moderate to high landslide susceptibility. Most all of Muir Beach and the surrounding area, where there are numerous residences, the Muir Beach Community Center and the Muir Beach Fire Station, lie in an area of high landslide susceptibility. Much of Tamalpais Valley and the outskirts of Marin City lie in an area of high landslide susceptibility. There are hundreds of residences along with several schools, community centers and emergency facilities that lie in this area, including on the northern end of Marin City. While Alto has low landslide susceptibility, most of Strawberry down to Harbor Point lies in an area of moderate to high landslide susceptibility. Parts of Paradise Cay and most of the east side of the Tiburon Peninsula also have high landslide susceptibility. There are hundreds of residences and several schools and community centers in these areas, as well as the Southern Marin Fire Protection District Station #9. Areas of Kentfield, particularly in the foothills of Mount Tamalpais and on the northeast side of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard down into Greenbrae, and most of California City have moderate to high landslide susceptibility. There are hundreds of residences in this area. Most critical facilities in Kentwood do not lie in areas of landslide susceptibility but are located along Corte Madera Creek and could be susceptible to debris flows that originate along the flanks of Mount Tamalpais. The northern end of San Quentin is in an area of moderate to high landslide susceptibility, and parts of San Quentin State Prison are vulnerable to a landslide. Residences on the outskirts of Lucas Valley, Marinwood, and Sleepy Hollow that lie in the foothills have a moderate to high susceptibility to landslides, as do residences in most of Los Ranchitos and in the area of Marinwood and Saint Vincent around Highway 101. Several health care facilities and schools also lie in this fringe. Areas of Lucas Valley and Marinwood along Miller Creek may be particularly susceptible to a debris flow in the creek. Numerous residences and a school lie in this area. Areas of Santa Venitia around the San Pedro Mountain Open Space Preserve have moderate to high susceptibility to landslides. There are dozens of homes in this area. Most critical facilities in Santa Venitia lie outside areas of landslide susceptibility. The western side of the Green Point-Black Point area has high landslide susceptibility while the eastern side is more moderately susceptible with pockets of high susceptibility. The entire area is primarily residential and hundreds of homes along with a school have some vulnerability to a landslide. There are residential areas in the unincorporated County west of Novato in the foothills with hundreds of homes that have moderate to high susceptibility of a landslide and could be vulnerable to a debris flow from any of the creeks that originate in the mountains. Landslides, mudslides, and debris flows can move fast enough to damage or destroy homes or other structures in their path, block roadways (including evacuation routes), and injure or kill people caught in them. Marin County OA populations that are most vulnerable to the effects of landslides, debris flows, and post-fire debris flows include: • Low-income households • Households in poverty • Renters • Persons living in mobile homes • Persons living on single access roads • Persons without access to transportation or telecommunications • Outdoor workers l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 176 • Houseless population • Persons with disabilities The most vulnerable populations are those that may be unable to evacuate due to limited mobility, lack of access to a vehicle, or language barriers that may prevent awareness of emergency notifications. Those living on single-access roadways in the hilly areas of the County or those living in less resilient housing may lose access to their homes if roadways or the structures are damaged or destroyed by a landslide. Development on hillsides in places like Mill Valley was done in the 1920s and 1930s, long before landslides were factored into design and construction regulations. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Extreme storm events and more frequent wildfires as a result of climate change have the potential to increase the amount and severity of landslides, including disastrous debris flows. Climate change is leading to more volatile precipitation patterns around the world with very dry stretches punctuated by storms that drop large amounts of rain in a short amount of time. Landslides in wetter regions of California, including the Marin County OA, move on average faster and farther downhill during rainy periods compared to drought years, according to a 2022 study by the American Geophysical Union (AGU), showing the increased potential for landslides in the Marin County OA in rainy years. As development increases in the numerous canyons and around the many open spaces of the Marin County OA, the potential for significant impacts from a landslide and/or mudflow increases. Future development should take into account the movement of mud and debris in waterways after a major rain event. Adequate space adjacent to susceptible waterways should be maintained free of development to allow for the passage of mud and debris, and catchment basins should be built in these areas to help capture any excess mud and debris. 3.3.3 DROUGHT A drought is a deficiency in precipitation over an extended period, usually a season or more, resulting in a water shortage causing adverse impacts on vegetation, animals, and/or people. It is a normal recurrent feature of climate that occurs in virtually all climate zones, from very wet to very dry. Drought is a temporary aberration from normal climatic conditions and can thus vary significantly from one region to another. Droughts occur slowly, over a multi-year period, and it is often not obvious or easy to quantify when a drought begins and ends. Drought is a complex issue involving many factors—it occurs when a normal amount of moisture is not available to satisfy an area’s usual water-consuming activities. There are several types of drought which can often be defined regionally based on their effects: • Meteorological drought is usually defined by a period of below average water supply, based on the degree of dryness (in comparison to normal or average) and the duration of the dry period. Drought onset generally occurs with a meteorological drought. • Agricultural drought occurs when there is an inadequate water supply to meet the needs of the state’s crops and other agricultural operations such as livestock. Agricultural drought links various characteristics of meteorological (or hydrological) drought to agricultural impacts, focusing on precipitation shortages, soil water deficits, reduced ground water or reservoir levels needed for irrigation. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 177 • Hydrological drought is defined as deficiencies in surface and subsurface water supplies. It is generally measured as stream flow, snowpack, and as lake, reservoir, and groundwater levels. Hydrological drought usually occurs following periods of extended precipitation shortfalls. • Socioeconomic drought occurs when a drought impacts health, well-being, and quality of life, or when a drought starts to have an adverse economic impact on a region. Location and Previous Occurrences Historically, California has experienced multiple severe droughts. According to the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), droughts exceeding three years are relatively rare in Northern California, the source of much of the State’s developed water supply. The 1929-34 drought established the criteria commonly used in designing storage capacity and yield of large Northern California reservoirs. The driest single year of California’s measured hydrologic record was 2013. A drought emergency was declared for the state in 2014, and lifted in 2017 after a series of strong winter storms. The U.S. Drought Monitor provides a general summary of current drought conditions. See Figure 3.57 for drought conditions in 2023, Figure 3.58 for drought conditions in 2020 and Figure 3.59 for drought conditions in 2016. Figure 3.57: U.S. Drought Monitor for California (2023) Source: USDA l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ U.S. Drought Monitor California October 31, 2023 (Released Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023) Valid 8 a.m . EDT Drought Conditions (Percent Area) None 00-04 01-04 02-0 4 Current £14~ 066 0,00 0Jl0 000 000 Last Week J0-2,4,2023 £,4 ,32 5 ,68 0.00 0,00 0.00 0.00 3MonthsAgo 74.43 25,57 1>52 000 000 0.00 Of.(}1.201: Stlrtof Calendar Year 0,00 10000 97 ,93 7114 2710 0,00 01.0:J.2023 Start of Water Year 94 ,01 599 0,07 0.00 0,00 0,00 09-$2023 One Vear Ago U,Qf"'Q22. 0,00 10000 ~77 9, ss 4306 16 .57 ~ c::::JNone D2 Severe Drought D DO Ab normally Dry -D3 Ex treme Drought c:J 01 Moderale Drought -D4 Excepttonal Droughl The Drou{fnl Momror foouses on broad-scale cond/11011s Local condiflons may vary. Fo, mO/tJ ,ntormatlon on the Qbughl Momlor. go lo hNps l/droughlmonrtor;unl.BdiJIAIJoul,aspX Author: Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigat ion Center USDA - droughtmonitor.unl.edu 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 178 Figure 3.58: U.S. Drought Monitor for California (2020) Source: USDA l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ U.S. Drought Monitor California July 28, 2020 (Released Thursday, Jul. 30, 2020) Valid 8 a.m. EDT lntensitv: LJ None LJ DO Abnormally Dry D D1 Moderate Drought D D2 Se vere Drough t -D3 Ex treme Drought -D4 ExcepUonal Drou ght The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale condiUons. Local conditions may vary. For more information on the Drought Monitor, go to https:1/droughtmonitor. unl.edu/About.aspx Author: Richard Heim NCEI/NOM ~SDA (.,@ {. droughtmonitor.unl.edu 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 179 Figure 3.59: U.S. Drought Monitor for California (2016) Source: USDA Figure 3.60: Water Supply Conditions in California 2005-2018 Source: 2018 State of California Hazard Mitigation Plan l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ U .S. Drought Monitor California Febru ary 1 St atewid e condi ti on s Departm ent of W ate r Resources Califo rn ia Cooperative Snow Surveys Ma rch 15, 2016 (Re/oased Thursday, Mar. 17, 2016) Va lid 8 a.m . EDT Droug//1 Co nditiOns (Pe rcent Area) None-C0 -0• 01-04 02-04 ... ~. Current 0.4:l 99 .57 g3.za 7.l.64 55.31 J.H4 Last Week 0.43 93 .57 97.49 83 16 60 .86 38 .4 0 J.MCIH 31.1ontnsAQo 0.1 4 W.86 S7.:J.3 !!0.6 3 69.09 44 .84 fM l.•:wu St!Wtol Cete nd er 't e...,r 0,00 100 00 97,33 87 ,55 69 ,07 44,8 4 f2,,2j,-2Qf:5 Start or 'WiterYeM 0.1 4 ro.B6 Sl.33 92.36 71.0 8 46 .0 0 M:?/.:tlf S One Year Ago 3"1'?',~i:H S 0.16 93 .B• 98.11 93 .44 67 .46 l9.92 Intensity: O0l'bnorrn YD l'I 1111 O3E xtrem-eDroug t 01 .U.o dcr11te Drou gM 1111 04 Exo::ption,ai l Orcn.rr.iH -02Smro Dn>u "11 n w DIOtsg!'lt UOtli!O( (OCUS9-S on lYOOd-~are CO:l di!jon-5'. t..oc alcon d4JOM may 11&.ry See ac com.oan.Ylna text w mma,y torfOtGCas:J. star9ft1iel'tt!S. Autho r: Richard Heim NCEIINOAA http :fldrou gh t monlto r.u nl.ed u/ 2so ~------------------------------------- 2 15 200 +------------------------------------1 150 (ll ~ (ll ~ 0 ~ a; a. so 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20 13 2014 2015 2016 2017 20 18 = Snowpack = Prec iptation Runoff to Date --Re servoir Storage 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 180 A drought emergency for the State of California was issued on January 17, 2014. This declaration came on the heels of a report that stated that California had the least amount of rainfall in its 163-year history. Drought conditions worsened through 2014 and into 2015. On April 1, 2015, following the lowest snowpack ever recorded, actions were announced by the State that would save water, increase enforcement to prevent wasteful water use, streamline the State’s drought response, and invest in new technologies to make California more drought resilient. The State Water Resources Control Board was directed to implement mandatory water reductions in cities and towns across California to reduce water usage by 25 percent. This savings amounted to approximately 1.5 million acre-feet of water through the end of 2015. In July 2021, the State of California added Marin County to its list of counties falling under its state of emergency regarding deepening drought conditions and record-breaking high temperatures statewide. After hearing details about local dry conditions and water supplies, the Marin County Board of Supervisors voted unanimously on May 18, 2021 to declare a local emergency and acknowledge the imminent threat of disaster. The declaration acknowledged the extent and impacts of the drought in Marin, which is severely affecting dairies and ranchers in West Marin. It also made the County eligible for California Disaster Assistance and other forms of state funding and resources. The local declaration cleared the way for state authorities to aid response and recovery efforts available to the County, water suppliers, farmers, impacted businesses and residents. In August 2021, with reservoir levels at historic lows, both MMWD and NMWD declared a water shortage emergency and adopted mandatory water use restrictions, with respective reduction goals of 40 percent and 20 percent. In October 2021, the Governor of California signed a proclamation extending the drought emergency statewide. In March 2023 the Governor eased drought restrictions and ended the drought emergency. All areas of the Marin County OA could experience drought, including vegetated areas where drier conditions could lead to an increase in wildfires and tree mortality. Impacts Drought impacts are wide-reaching and may be economic, environmental, and/or societal. The most significant impacts associated with drought in the planning area are those related to water intensive activities such as agriculture, wildfire protection, municipal usage, commerce, tourism, recreation, and wildlife preservation. During a drought, allocations go down, which results in reduced water availability. Voluntary conservation measures are typically implemented during extended droughts. A reduction of electric power generation and water quality deterioration are also potential problems. Drought conditions can also cause soil to compact and not absorb water well, potentially making an area more susceptible to flooding. Drought can have secondary impacts. For example, drought is a major determinant of wildfire hazard, in that it creates greater propensity for fire starts and larger, more prolonged conflagrations fueled by excessively dry vegetation, along with reduced water supply for firefighting purposes. Drought is also an economic hazard. Significant economic impacts on California’s agriculture industry can occur as a result of short‐ and long‐term drought conditions; these include hardships to farmers, farm workers, packers, and shippers of agricultural products. Health and property impacts, such as water contamination (especially private wells), economic losses to individuals, physical and mental health impacts may also occur. In some cases, droughts can also cause significant increases in food prices to the consumer due to shortages, causing possible food insecurity or dietary changes, which may lead to poorer health outcomes. Drought can also result in lack of water and subsequent feed available to grazing l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 181 livestock, potentially leading to risk of livestock death and resulting in losses to the State’s and Marin County’s agricultural economy. Based on historical information, the occurrence of drought in California, including the Marin County OA, is cyclical, driven by weather patterns. Drought has occurred in the past and will occur in the future. Periods of actual drought with adverse impacts can vary in duration, and the period between droughts is often extended. Although an area may be under an extended dry period, determining when it becomes a drought is based on impacts to individual water users. Figure 3.61: Drought Impacts Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ Natural Climate Valiability Precipitation deficiency (amount, intensity, timing) Reduced infiltration , runoff deep percolation , and ground water recharge High temp., high winds , low relative humidity, greater sunshine, less cloud cover Increased evaporation and transpiration Soil water deficiency Plant water stress , reduced biomass and yield i6 u ·-... o,_ o-_o, o= '-0 o ... ~Q :E ------------------------·------------- Reduced streamflow, inflow to reservoirs , lakes , and ponds; reduced weti ands , wildlife habitat ] ... ·er;, o_ oo ...... ~ ---------_'-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_....,...._-_-_-_-_-_-_----'_ -----------:c - Economic Im acts social Im acts Environmental Im acts 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 182 Drought also has a significant impact on tree mortality. Figures 3.64 shows the impact of tree mortality in Marin County in 2022. Figure 3.62: 2022 Locations of Tree Mortality in the Marin County OA Source: CALFIRE Extent and Probability Scientists expect that climate change will lead to more frequent and more intense droughts statewide. Overall, precipitation levels are expected to stay similar, and may even increase in some places. However, the state’s current data say that there will be more years with extreme levels of precipitation, both high and low, as a result of climate change. This is expected to cause more droughts that last longer and are more intense, compared to historical norms. Higher air temperatures are expected to increase evaporation, causing more water loss from lakes and reservoirs and decreasing soil moisture to greater depths. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ y 181.) I'll P~talumcf 0 1:577,791 3 s4Mi1 Francisco. H p 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 183 Table 3.10: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Drought Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High High 16.00 City of Belvedere Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High High 16.00 Town of Corte Madera Likely Extensive Weak High Medium 13.00 Town of Fairfax Occasional Extensive Weak Medium Low 10.00 City of Larkspur Occasional Extensive Moderate High Medium 13.00 City of Mill Valley Likely Extensive Weak High Medium 13.00 City of Novato Likely Extensive Weak High Medium 13.00 Town of Ross Likely Extensive Moderate Medium High 14.00 Town of San Anselmo Likely Extensive Extreme High High 17.00 City of San Rafael Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 14.00 City of Sausalito Unlikely Negligible None Low Low 4.00 Town of Tiburon Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High High 16.00 Bolinas Public Utility District Highly Likely Extensive Severe High High 17.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Likely Limited None High Medium 10.00 North Marin Water District Occasional Extensive Severe High Medium 14.00 Southern Marin Fire District Likely Significant Severe High Medium 14.00 Table 3.10: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Drought Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 184 Vulnerability The vulnerability of the Marin County OA to drought is countywide, but impacts may vary by area and include reduction in water supply, agricultural losses, and an increase in dry fuels. During drought, declines in surface water flows can be detrimental to water supplies for agriculture and cities, hydropower production, navigation, recreation, and natural ecosystems, particularly habitat for aquatic and riparian species. Communities in the Marin County OA, may experience water shortages during drought conditions which lead to mandatory water use restrictions and possibly the importation of water. During drought events, the flow of water in creeks and streams is reduced, creating more slow-moving or standing water. This can concentrate sediment and toxins in the low water levels, causing harm to plants and animals. Many fish species also rely on specific water temperatures and stream flow speeds, especially for spawning and egg incubation, and changes to stream velocity as a result of drought conditions can affect reproduction. Droughts can also indirectly lead to more wildfires, and the stress caused by water shortages can weaken plants, making them more susceptible to pests and diseases. As drought persists, longer-term impacts can emerge, such as land subsidence, seawater intrusion, and damage to ecosystems. During prolonged or severe drought, County residents would be impacted by water use restrictions and changes to water supply. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought. Warmer temperatures enhance evaporation, which reduces surface water and dries out soils and vegetation. This makes periods with low precipitation in the summer drier than they would be in cooler conditions. Climate also alters the timing of water availability as warmer winter temperatures cause less precipitation to fall. During droughts, communities in the Marin County OA may have limited access to water for household use, including drinking, cooking, cleaning, and watering plants, as well as for agriculture, transportation, and power generation. Drought may lead to higher water costs, rationing, or even the decimation of important water sources like wells in the Marin County OA. As more people move into the Marin County OA, additional strain will be placed on the OA’s water supply. Drought can affect livestock and crops in the Marin County OA, impacting its economy. Drought can increase the occurrence and severity of wildfires and tree mortality in the Marin County OA. Impacts to residents and infrastructure from wildfire as a result of drought will increase as more development occurs in the mountainous areas of the Marin County OA where wildfires are more likely to occur. Drought also increases the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, including by decreasing land productivity, which reduces the amount of vegetation storing carbon dioxide. In addition, increases in drought-related wildfire and soil erosion can release carbon dioxide sequestered in trees and plants back into the atmosphere. This will only worsen climate change for the Marin County OA into the future. When considering future development, the Marin County OA can help prepare for both future droughts and climate change by practicing and promoting water conservation and enhancing water efficiency throughout landscapes, city plans, and water infrastructure. The Marin County OA can also identify alternative water supplies, create drought emergency plans, and encourage farmers to plant drought-resistant crops. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 185 3.3.4 EARTHQUAKE Earthquakes are sudden rolling or shaking events caused by movement under the earth’s surface. Earthquakes happen along cracks in the earth's surface, called fault lines, and can be felt over large areas, although they usually last less than one minute. The amount of energy released during an earthquake is usually expressed as a magnitude and is currently measured by seismologists on the Moment Magnitude (Mw Scale). The Mw Scale was developed to succeed the previously used Richter Scale and is measured on a scale of zero to ten with increasing values reflecting increasing intensity. The other commonly used measure of earthquake severity is intensity, which is an expression of the amount of shaking at any given location on the ground service. Intensity is most commonly measured on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale (see Figure 3.63). Figure 3.63: Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale Figure 3.64 gives intensities (measured on the MMI scale) that are typically observed at locations near the epicenter or earthquakes of different magnitudes. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN Intensity Shaking No t felt Weak I ll Weak IV Li ght V Moderate VI Strong VII Very strong Severe Vi o lent a ~ Description/Damage Not felt exce pt by a very few under especia lly favorab l e cond it ions. Fel t only by a few perso ns at rest,especially on upper fl oors of bu ildings. Fel t quite noticeably by perso n s in doors, es pecia lly o n upper fl oors of bu ildings. Ma ny people do not recognize i t as an earthq uake. Sta n din g motor cars may rock sl ightly. Vibrations sim i l ar to the passing of a truck. Duration est imated . Fe lt ind oors by many, outdoors by few du ring t he day. At night, so me awake ned . Dishes, windows, doo rs d isturbed; wa lls make c racki ng so un d . Sensation li ke heavy truck stri ki ng building. St andi ng motor cars roc ked noticeably. Felt by nea rly everyone; many awakened . Some d i shes, windows broken. Un sta b le objects overturned . Pendulum clocks may stop. Fe lt by all, many frightened. Some heavy f urniture moved; a few insta nces of fallen pla ster. Dam age sl ight. Dam age negligible i n buildi ngs of good design and co nstructio n; sl ight to mode ra te in we ll-built ordinary stru ctu res; co nsid era ble d amage i n poorl y built or badly d es ign ed structures; some ch i mn eys broken. Damage sl ight in specia lly d es i gned structu res; co nsid erab l e damage in o rdin ary subs t antial bu il dings w ith parti al co llapse. Dam age grea t in poorl y bu ilt stru ctures. Fall of chimneys, fac tory st acks, co lumns, monuments, wall s. Heavy f urniture overturn ed. Damage cons iderab le in specia lly designed stru ct ures; well-des igned f rame structures t hrown out of p l umb. Damage grea t in substa ntial bu il dings, w it h partial co llapse. Bu ildings shifted off foundatio ns. Some well-built wooden struc t ure s dest royed; most masonry and frame structures dest roye d w ith foundations. Ra ils bent. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 186 Figure 3.64: Mercalli Scale vs. Magnitude The extent of ground shaking also depends in large part on how soft the underlying soil is. Soft soils amplify ground shaking (see Figure 3.65). This was observed during the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake when the most significant damages experienced in San Francisco were in the Marina District, which was built on fill. Figure 3.65: Soil Types l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN Soil Vs> type 1500 A m/sec 1500 Soil type m/sec > Vs> 750 B m/sec 750 Soil m/sec> Type Vs>350 C m/sec 350 Soil Type m/sec> Vs> 200 D m/sec Soil 200 Type m/sec> E Vs a ~ Richter Magnitude Scale 1.0-2.9 3.0-3.9 4.0 -4.9 5.0-5.9 6.0-6.9 7 .0 or higher Typical Maximum Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale I TI-Ill .._ IV-V I VJ-Vil VII-IX -- VIII or higher Includes unweathered intrusive igneous rock . Occurs infrequently in the bay area. We consider it with type B (both A and Bare represented by the color blue on the map). Soil types A and B do not contribute greatly to shaking amplification. Includes volcan ics, most Mesozoic bedrock, and some Franciscan bedrock. (M esozoic rocks are between 245 and 64 million y ears o ld. The Fra nciscan Complex is a Meso zoic uni t that is common in the Bay Area.) Includes some Quaternary (less than 1.8 m illi on years old) sands, sandstones and mudstones, some Upper Tertiary (1.8 to 24 million years old) sandstones, mudstones and limestone, some Lower Tertiary (24 to 64 million years o ld) mud stones and sandstones, and Franciscan melange and serpentinite. Includes some Quaternary muds, sands, gravels, silts and mud. Sign ificant amp lifica t ion of shaking by these soils is generally expected . Includes water-sa tu rated mud and artificia l fill. The strongest amplification of shaking due i s expected for this soil type. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 187 An earthquake fault is defined as “a fracture or fracture zone in the earth’s crust along which there has been displacement of the sides relative to one another.” For the purpose of planning there are two types of faults, active and inactive. Active faults have experienced displacement in historic time, suggesting that future displacement may be expected. Inactive faults show no evidence of movement in recent geologic time, suggesting that these faults are dormant. Two types of fault movement represent possible hazards to structures in the immediate vicinity of the fault: fault creep and sudden fault displacement. Fault creep, a slow movement of one side of a fault relative to the other, can cause cracking and buckling of sidewalks and foundations even without perceptible ground shaking. Sudden fault displacement occurs during an earthquake event and may result in the collapse of buildings or other structures that are found along the fault zone when fault displacement exceeds an inch or two. The only protection against damage caused directly by fault displacement is to prohibit construction in the fault zone. Location and Previous Occurrences The potential for earthquake damage exists throughout Marin County because of a combination of the number of active faults within and near the County and the presence of soils vulnerable to liquefaction. These faults are shown on the California Geological Survey (CGS) Fault Activity Map of California (see Figure 3.68 . Fault Activity Map below). Descriptions of the most significant active faults to Marin are provided below. San Andreas fault: The San Andreas Fault traverses Marin County running north and south in the western quarter of the county. It enters Marin on the Pacific Coast near Bolinas, follows the path of Highway 1 and Tomales Bay, exiting Marin at sea just west of Dillon Beach. Hayward fault: the eastern, more heavily populated part of Marin is less than ten miles from the northern section of the Hayward fault. Rodgers Creek fault: The northern part of Marin is less than ten miles from the Rodgers Creek fault. See Figure 3.66 for a map of earthquake faults and probability of shaking across the Marin County OA. Earthquake Shake Intensity The colors on Figures 3.66 and 3.67 represent the level of ground shaking intensity of a potential future earthquake. The result is expressed as the level of ground shaking (expressed as a percentage of gravity) that on average occurs every 500 years. This map shows the expected relative intensity of ground shaking and damage in California from anticipated future earthquakes. The shaking potential is calculated as the level of ground motion that has a 2% chance of being exceeded in 50 years, which is the same as the level of ground-shaking with about a 2500 year average repeat time. The relatively long-period (1.0 second) earthquake shaking is shown here. Long period-shaking affects tall, relatively flexible buildings, but also correlates well with overall earthquake damage. Earthquake Shaking Potential Maps for California depict expected intermediate period (1s or 1hz) ground motions with 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 188 Figure 3.66: Earthquake Faults and Probability of Shaking in the Marin County OA Sources: Marin County OEM, USGS l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN / \ \ I ( \ i I I I / / / a ~ Marin County / Full County Earthquake DIIICUII EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area Legend Ea rt hquake 1.95 1.85 1.15 1.05 0 1.45 1.35 -1.25 -0.95 0.85 0.75 0.65 0.55 0.4 5 0.35 Ma ri n County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn em ail: OEM _GIS @Mar inCo unty.org Ii Date Pri nted : 09/22/23 County of Marin, californ ia St ate Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Technologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Manag ement, EPA, NPS, US DA, County of Marin, (alifornia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Gar min , SafeGrap h, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Lan d Management, EPA, NPS N 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 189 Figure 3.67: Marin County Earthquake Shaking Potential and Critical Facilities Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ I / I / I I ( • Da ms • Military and Qvil Defense Insta llations COl'r'lmunic.atio r'l Facil~ies Elecbic Power Facllltles Legend Fire Stations Hospita ls and Medical Faci lities Pol ice / Sheri ff Stations Schools Wastewater f acil ities EarthquakeShaking Water Supply Facilities 0.45 o.ss AirportS 0.65 Emergency Operatio ns 0.75 Centers 0.85 Mar in Cou nty Earthquake 10 1 -0.9 5 -I.OS -I.IS -1.25 -1.35 -1.45 1.55 1.65 1.75 0 DfllctOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 10 Miles 12 21 37 San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area 1.85 1.95 Ma ri n County OEM / Wo ody Ba ker-Cohn em ail: OEM _GIS @Mar inCo un ty.org Da te Printed : 11 /01/23 N County of Ma ri n, california St ate Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Tec hnologies, I nc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of La nd Managem ent, EPA, NPS, US DA, County of Mari n, califomia State Parks, Esr i, HERE, Gar min, SafeGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bu reau of Land Ma nagement, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 190 There are faults that do not traverse the Marin County OA that may cause shaking effects to occur inside the County. According to the Association of Bay Area Governments Resilience Program, “the San Andreas Fault was the source of the magnitude of 7.8 earthquake in 1906. Marin was sparsely inhabited at that time and experienced relatively moderate property loss and only two deaths. The epicenter was just two miles west of San Francisco and West Marin experienced some pronounced earthquake effects. This included a horizontal earth displacement of 21 feet near the head of Tomales Bay. On October 17, 1989, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred on the San Andreas Fault, the largest earthquake to occur in the San Francisco Bay Area since 1906. This earthquake was named the Loma Prieta Earthquake due to its calculated epicenter. The impact of the Loma Prieta Earthquake was most apparent in the northeast area of Santa Cruz. If the fault rupture location were closer, a strong shaking such as this could have caused severe damage within Marin County, including damage to life-line routes. The Loma Prieta Earthquake was not “the big one,” which is a common reference to an event with a magnitude of 8 or larger (such as the 1906 San Francisco quake). Impacts Ground shaking is the primary earthquake hazard. Many factors affect the survivability of structures and systems from earthquake-caused ground motions. These factors include proximity to the fault, direction of rupture, epicenter location and depth, magnitude, local geologic and soils conditions, types and quality of construction, building configurations and heights, and comparable factors that relate to utility, transportation, and other network systems. Ground motions become structurally damaging when average peak accelerations reach 10 to 15 percent of gravity, average peak velocities reach 8 to 12 centimeters per second, and when the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale is about VII (18-34 percent peak ground acceleration), which is considered to be very strong (general alarm; walls crack; plaster falls). Earthquakes can result in liquefaction. Liquefaction is a process whereby soil is temporarily transformed to a fluid form during intense and prolonged ground shaking. Areas most prone to liquefaction are those that are water saturated (e.g., where the water table is less than 30 feet below the surface) and consist of relatively uniform sands that are loose to medium density. In addition to necessary soil conditions, the ground acceleration and duration of the earthquake must be of sufficient energy to induce liquefaction. Liquefaction during major earthquakes has caused severe damage to structures on level ground as a result of settling, tilting, or floating. Such damage occurred in San Francisco on bay-filled areas during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, even though the epicenter was several miles away. If liquefaction occurs in or under a sloping soil mass, the entire mass may flow toward a lower elevation. Of particular concern in terms of developed and newly developing areas are fill areas that have been poorly compacted. Earthquakes can cause settlement. Settlement can occur in poorly consolidated soils during ground shaking. During settlement, the soil materials are physically rearranged by the shaking to result in a less stable alignment of the individual minerals. Settlement of sufficient magnitude to cause significant structural damage is normally associated with rapidly deposited alluvial soils or improperly founded or poorly compacted fill. These areas are known to undergo extensive settling with the addition of irrigation water, but evidence due to ground shaking is not available. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 191 Earthquakes can also cause seiches, landslides, and dam failures. A seiche is a periodic oscillation of a body of water resulting from seismic shaking or other factors that could cause flooding. Earthquakes may cause landslides, particularly during the wet season, in areas of high water or saturated soils. Earthquake impact on life, property, and environment may include cascading impacts of lifelines loss (water, electricity), loss of housing, injuries and mortality, surge in healthcare facilities, and disruption to EMS services. Most structures in the Marin County OA, including in the unincorporated area, were built before 1970, when major seismic design changes were made to the building code and are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes and liquefaction. Wood framed homes, however, are light and flexible and can often survive earthquakes with minimal damage as long as the foundations are properly retrofitted (bolted and braced). The County of Marin and its political subdivisions have adopted California Building, Plumbing, Electrical and Mechanical Codes whereby no building or structure is erected, constructed, enlarged, improved, removed, or converted without a permit. Adherence to these codes currently allows the county to gather data on retrofitting and current building code compliance. It is important to note that these data continue to have limitations for assessing overall vulnerability in the county for all structures. The majority of the Marin County OA’s single-family buildings with foundations to bedrock will perform well in a shake. Modern multi-story buildings with foundations to bedrock should not be subject to collapse, although some serious damage may occur. However, many heavier developed areas of the Marin County OA are built on soft alluvial soils or filled-in water ways. Due to liquefaction, these soils will significantly increase the shaking effects and will account for the majority of damaged and destroyed structures, regardless of their proximity to the fault line. Liquefaction occurs when ground shaking causes loose, saturated soil to lose strength and act as a viscous fluid. When liquefaction occurs, it can result in the sidelong movement of large masses of soil, loss of strength in the soil supporting structures causing structures to collapse, and/or consolidation due to soil settlement decreasing soil surface elevations. The county’s topography includes large areas of steep slopes, adding to the vulnerability of earthquake induced disasters with the additional danger of debris flow (landslides). Bluff erosion along the coastal areas also poses unique threats to coastal structures and roads during times of earthquake. Extent and Probability An earthquake could occur and affect any area of the Marin County OA, including the unincorporated area. The ABAG Resilience Program analysis shows risk of liquefaction in Corte Madera, Larkspur, Bel Marin Keys, Novato, Ross Valley along creeks (Ross, San Anselmo, Fairfax), San Geronimo, San Rafael, Santa Venetia, communities around Richardson Bay (Belvedere, Marin City, Mill Valley, Sausalito, Strawberry, Tam Valley, Tiburon), Stinson Beach, Tomales Bay-side communities, and the county-owned Gnoss Field Airport. According to a September 24, 2016 article in the Marin Independent Journal, “The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities has updated its earthquake forecast and determined there is a 72 percent probability - up from 63 percent - of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the Bay Area before 2043.” The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) Resilience Program projects a 52% chance of a 6.7 or greater earthquake on one of the faults affecting Marin between now and 2036 (21% at San Andreas fault and 31% on Hayward/Rodgers Creek). Supporting this article’s assertions is the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 192 earthquakes in California (see Figure 3.68 ). Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi- fault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). Figure 3.68: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 Source: USGS The September 24, 2016 article goes on to say “Marin sits smack dab (sic) in the middle of two major faults. To the east is the Rodgers Creek-Hayward fault just a few miles from Marin’s shores through San Pablo Bay, which the U.S. Geological Survey estimates has a 33 percent likelihood of a 6.7-magnitude quake or greater in the next 30 years — the highest probability of any Bay Area fault to slip. But movement on those faults could be worse than originally thought.” The Rodgers Creek-Hayward fault, thought to be two separate faults, actually may be linked and have the potential to cause more damage than previously determined, according to USGS research. “The Rodgers Creek Fault runs from Sonoma County into San Pablo Bay near Marin’s shore. The Hayward Fault runs through the western part of Alameda County into San Pablo Bay east of San Rafael and Novato. They were thought to be offset by about two miles under San Pablo Bay. But underwater exploration done in 2014 seems to link them. More study will occur to confirm those initial findings.” l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 1/1000 1/100 1110 30--year M ~6-7 likelihood (percent) 10 UCERF3 Uniform Californ ia Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Version 3) 100 Ttvee+dimensional perspective view of the li kel ihood that each region of California will experience a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years (6.7 matches the magnitude o f the 1 994 Northridge earthquake. an d 30 years is the typic<II duration of a homeowner mortgage). faults are shown by the rectangles outlined in bl ack. Th e entire cofored area represents grea ter Ca lifornia,and the white line across the middle defines northern versus southern C,a liforn ia. Results do not includ e earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduct ion Zone, a 750-mile offsho re fault that extends about 1 SO mil es into Ca li fornia fr om Oregon a nd Washington to the north. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 193 Table 3.11: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment - Earthquake Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Highly Likely Extensive Extreme None High 15.00 City of Belvedere Highly Likely Extensive Extreme None High 15.00 Town of Corte Madera Occasional Extensive Severe None High 12.00 Town of Fairfax Highly Likely Extensive Extreme None High 15.00 City of Larkspur Occasional Extensive Extreme None High 13.00 City of Mill Valley Occasional Extensive Extreme Low Medium 13.00 City of Novato Occasional Extensive Extreme None Medium 12.00 Town of Ross Likely Significant Severe None Medium 11.00 Town of San Anselmo Occasional Extensive Extreme High High 16.00 City of San Rafael Occasional Significant Severe None Medium 10.00 City of Sausalito Occasional Limited Moderate Low Low 8.00 Town of Tiburon Highly Likely Extensive Extreme None High 15.00 Bolinas Public Utility District Occasional Extensive Severe None High 13.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Occasional Extensive Extreme None Medium 12.00 North Marin Water District Occasional Extensive Extreme Low Medium 13.00 Southern Marin Fire District Occasional Extensive Extreme None High 13.00 Table 3.11: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Earthquake Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 194 Vulnerability The areas most vulnerable to earthquake in the Marin County OA, including the unincorporated area, are on bay mud and current and former marshlands. Many of these areas have been artificially filled over the last century. Other areas with some risk of liquefaction include those along creeks due to fluvial and alluvial deposits. Unfortunately, much of Marin’s residential areas and infrastructure are located on former marshes and along creeks. Tens of thousands of acres of residential areas, along with roads, airports, military facilities, retail centers, schools, hospitals, prisons, jails, government administration centers, convention centers, recreation areas, croplands/pasture are in areas vulnerable to liquefaction in the Marin County OA. For all three faults mentioned above that run through the Marin County OA, many areas of the most severe vulnerability to earthquake coincide with the heavily populated Highway 101 corridor on the eastern side of the county. Numerous unincorporated communities with large populations and buildings lie in this area. According to the ABAG Resilience Program, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the San Andreas fault would leave 3,100 homes in the Marin County OA uninhabitable, displace 6,200 households, and result in total building damage of $1,260 billion dollars. Because many people in the region do not have earthquake insurance, many homeowners will not be able to afford to rebuild their homes. In addition to damaging buildings, a 7.8 magnitude San Andreas earthquake could close 77 roads in Marin due to faulting, liquefaction, debris flow/ landslide, shaking damage to bridges and interchanges, threat of building collapse, structural damage to highway and rail structures, small hazardous material releases, water and gas pipe leaks, and other miscellaneous reasons for closure. Figure 3.69 shows the social vulnerability of Marin County populations to earthquake in relation to the rest of California. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 195 Figure 3.69: Population/Social Vulnerability to an Earthquake in California Source: 2018 State of California Hazard Mitigation Plan 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 0 25 SO 100 M Res cal Po ly -San Luis Obi spo City and Reeio n al Pi nni ng Jun e 2018 Popu lation/Soc 1:a II Vulnerability with Earthquake Hazard R,eliative Vulnerability High Low Grid cell size approximate, y •one square k ilometer. Cel ls with popul ation < 75 are not mapped. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 196 Climate Change and Future Development Considerations There is no direct link between climate change and seismic activity that could impact the Marin County OA, so climate change is not expected to cause any changes to the frequency or intensity of seismic shaking. According to a 2018 study by the Institute of Physics (IOP), climate change could result in “isostatic rebounds,” or a sudden upward movement of the crust because of reduced downward weight caused by glaciers. As glaciers are known to melt when overall global temperatures increase, climate change could indirectly lead to an increase in seismicity in the Marin County OA. Climate change could also impact earthquakes felt in the Marin County OA as droughts can further deteriorate existing fault lines and pumping groundwater can put further pressure on the earth’s crust. Future development in the populated areas of Marin County OA where seismic shaking and subsidence are more prevalent could exacerbate the impacts of an earthquake. 3.3.5 FLOODING Flooding is the rising and overflowing of a body of water onto normally dry land. Floods are among the costliest natural disasters in terms of human hardship and economic loss nationwide. The area adjacent to a channel is the floodplain. Floodplains are illustrated on inundation maps, which show areas of potential flooding and water depths. In its common usage, the floodplain most often refers to that area that is inundated by the 100-yea r flood, the flood that has a one percent chance in any given year of being equaled or exceeded. The 100-year flood is the national minimum standard to which communities regulate their floodplains through the National Flood Insurance Program. The 200-year flood is one that has 0.5% chance of being equaled or exceeded each year. The 500-year flood is the flood that has a 0.2 percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year. The potential for flooding can change and increase through various land use changes and changes to land surface, which result in a change to the floodplain. A change in environment can create localized flooding problems inside and outside of natural floodplains by altering or confining natural drainage channels. These changes are most often created by human activity such as construction of bridges or channels. In areas where flow contains high sediment load, such as Easkoot Creek in Stinson Beach (due to an active landslide upstream), the flow carrying capacity of the channel may be reduced dramatically during a single flood event. Coastal floodplains may also change over time as waves and currents alter the coastline (especially wetlands) and sea levels rise. Flooding can occur in several ways: Riverine flooding – Riverine flooding, defined as when a watercourse exceeds its “bank-full” capacity, generally occurs as a result of prolonged rainfall, or rainfall that is combined with snowmelt and/or already saturated soils from previous rain events. This type of flood occurs in river systems whose tributaries may drain large geographic areas and include one or more independent river basins. The onset and duration of riverine floods may vary from a few hours to many days and is often characterized by high peak flows combined with a large volume of runoff. Factors that directly affect the amount of flood runoff include precipitation amount, intensity and distribution, the amount of soil moisture, seasonal variation in vegetation, snow depth, and water-resistance of the surface due to urbanization. In the Marin County OA, riverine flooding can occur anytime from November through April and is largely caused by heavy and continued rains, sometimes combined with snowmelt, increased outflows from upstream dams, and heavy flow from tributary streams. These intense storms can overwhelm the local waterways as well as the integrity of flood control structures. Flooding is more severe when l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 197 antecedent rainfall has resulted in saturated ground conditions. The warning time associated with slow rise riverine floods assists in life and property protection. Flash flooding – Flash flooding describes localized floods of great volume and short duration. This type of flood usually results from a heavy rainfall on a relatively small drainage area. Precipitation of this sort usually occurs in the winter and spring. Flash floods often require immediate evacuation within the hour and thus early threat identification and warning is critical for saving lives. Localized/Stormwater flooding – Localized flooding problems are often caused by flash flooding, severe weather, or an unusual amount of rainfall. Flooding from these intense weather events usually occurs in areas experiencing an increase in runoff from impervious surfaces associated with development and urbanization as well as inadequate storm drainage systems. Tidal flooding – Tidal flooding develops when high tides exceed either the top of bank elevation of tidal sloughs and channels, or the crest of bay levees. An especially high tide event that occurs during alignment of the gravitational pull between the sun and the moon, causes tidal water levels to rise to higher-than normal levels. King tides are normal, predictable events that occur semi-annually during winter months. Typically storms in which high tides coincide with peak stormwater flow are the most damaging. The area is also at risk of flooding resulting from levee failures and dam failures. Dam failure flooding is discussed separately in the Dam Failure Section of this document; levee failure flooding is discussed separately in the Levee Failure Section of this document. Regardless of the type of flood, the cause is often the result of severe weather and excessive rainfall, either in the flood area or upstream reach. A weather pattern called the “Atmospheric River” contributes to the flooding potential of the area. An Atmospheric River brings warm air and rain to the West. A relatively common weather pattern brings southwest winds to the Pacific Northwest or California, along with warm, moist air. The moisture sometimes produces many days of heavy rain, which can cause extensive flooding. The warm air also can melt the snowpack in the mountains, which further aggravates the flooding potential. In the colder parts of the year, the warm air can be cooled enough to produce heavy, upslope snow as it rises into the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada or Cascades. Forecasters and others on the West Coast often used to refer to this warm, moist air as the “Pineapple Express” because it comes from around Hawaii where pineapples are grown. A diagram of an atmospheric river event is shown in Figure 3.70. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 198 Figure 3.70: Diagram of an Atmospheric River Event Source: NOAA The Marin County OA is susceptible to various types of flood events. In coastal areas, flooding may occur when strong winds or tides result in a surge of seawater into areas that are above the normal high tide line. Other types of flooding in Marin include isolated ponding and stormwater overflow. Isolated ponding is when pools form on the ground and can occur in any area that doesn’t drain effectively – for example, in a natural depression in the landscape. Stormwater overflow is when storm drains back up. Stormwater drainage systems quickly convey rainwater through underground pipes to creeks and the Bay. When the stormdrains are obstructed or broken or when the water bodies to which they lead to are already full, water backs up onto the streets. Although stormwater overflow and isolated ponding also occur throughou t the County, the effects are typically not widespread or significantly damaging. Location and Previous Occurrences Figure 3.7 1 shows the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood hazard zones in the Marin County OA, using the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) for Marin County. l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ The science behind atmospheric rivers An-~IC-(Alll~•!lcrnir,gc~~<>lw..f .,.,i,.~.,•-li1o14k-~•f~!;lo~Pf~ •1 ,ol,•l~l'fld•IIClwe ~lo\'tli •\-\lrmdSt~ WtwftNl>-llilllkl ..... i "--'lhtM:Jul'll ""m,wl)(lf1ioff..wl<-toC. h ~I'll~, n.:.,gh """'IAAI "'" •)"11!1m lhol ·,lmj:l1p,<'lldo 'b<niolloJ I ...,,.,. "'"""'...,. allfle l•!I","""" pcr-1u1Alls..., attt,eeru,..,.,.W,11 •md- <~ <>I .U,,U,.'"9 t1>~ loduclnQ rnull1M,.ooouu""9 "'""!Qllt.icd.o,rugtto~t,,ond~. ~,.,..,...,..,...,..,.,.._,.,,...,,.,,,"" 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 199 Figure 3.71: FIRM Zones in the Marin County OA Source: FEMA 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ Special Flood Hazard Areas Flood Zone A AE III AH Ill Ao 111111 V lll vE N A 0 10 ----======:::JMiles 5 Data Source: Marin Map , 2018 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 200 Major county watersheds where significant numbers of structures are at risk from riverine flooding include Coyote Creek, Arroyo Corte Madera del Presidio, East and West Creek watersheds, Corte Madera Creek, Novato and Rush Creeks, Miller Creek, Easkoot Creek (Stinson Beach), Gallinas Creek. Additionally, many locations along Richardson Bay, Tomales Bay, lower Las Gallinas Creek, the San Rafael Canal, East San Rafael and Novato shores, and the outer Pacific coastline are vulnerable to coastal flooding. In many cases, where there is a significant history of flooding there is a Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District “Flood Zone” established. There are 8 County Flood Zones located in the following areas as described in Table 3.11 . Table 3.11: The 100-year, 200-year and 500-year floodplains in the Marin County OA Zone No. Name Location 1 Novato Northern Marin: Most of City of Novato and some surrounding areas within the Novato Creek watershed. 3 Richardson Bay Southern Marin: Marin City watershed, Coyote Creek watershed (includes Tamalpais Valley and Almonte); Arroyo Corte Madera del Presidio watershed and Ryan Creek watershed (both include much of the City of Mill Valley), and a watershed including Sutton Manor/Alto/part of Strawberry. 4 Bel Aire Southern Marin: East and West Creek watersheds which run through the Bel Aire neighborhood of the Town of Tiburon and part of (unincorporated) Strawberry. 5 Stinson Beach West Marin: Part of the lower Easkoot Creek watershed at Stinson Beach 6 San Rafael Meadows Central Marin: A part of the Las Gallinas Creek watershed in the City of San Rafael across from the County Civic Center. 7 Santa Venetia Central Marin: The unincorporated community of Santa Venetia along Las Gallinas Creek. 9 Ross Valley Central Marin: The Corte Madera Creek watershed, including the towns of Fairfax, San Anselmo, Ross, and Larkspur, as well as unincorporated parts of San Anselmo, Fairfax, Kentfield and Greenbrae. 10 Inverness West Marin: Inverness, along the west shore of Tomales Bay and the East flank of Inverness Ridge. Figure 3.72: The 100-year, 200-year and 500-year floodplains in the Marin County OA. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 201 Figure 3.73: 100, 200, 500-Year Floodplains in the Marin County OA Source: Marin OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ \ I / I I ( Legend • Dams Military and Ovil Defense Installations Communication Facilities Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities Mar in Cou nty Flooding • • \ Emergency Operations Centers Fire Stations Hospitals and Medical Facilities Police / Sheriff Stations Schools Peta luma 0 2 ,5 -5 ... D1111:EOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Boyes Hot Spri ngs El Vera no So noma on e ,ere alito _..,, _..,. • Water Supply Facilities Flood ing Airports 500 Year Flood Plain 100 Year Flood Plain Mar in County OEM / Woody Baker -Cohn email: OEM _GIS @MarinCounty.org Date Printed : 10/30/23 County of Marin, callforn ia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Technologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, US DA , County of Marin, califomia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 202 Several unincorporated communities in Marin County lie in a special flood hazard area (the 100- year floodplain), which are shown below along with the 500-year floodplain, where applicable. Figure 3.74 shows the 100-year floodplain in the Lagunitas area. Figure 3.74: 100-Year Floodplain – Lagunitas Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ \ ::__\ .... -,i&i,.,,_ ... _/ ----., ' 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 203 Figure 3.75 shows the 100-year floodplain in the Forest Knolls are. Figure 3.75: 100-Year Floodplain – Forest Knolls Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 Figure 3.76 shows the 100-year floodplain in the San Geronimo area. Figure 3.76: 100-Year Floodplain – San Geronimo Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN i ,.., a ~ ,! j '! / ... \ \ \ \" \ ~ ( { \ ,-- ~. .. ""' ,, ,, .. ,_ ........ .......... J 1 . i M:wric.Thc:rnlt ·---- II I I \ c.........., '\ Thor,,.-,r,_ ltFrandoDflM~ I j '[ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 204 Figure 3.77 shows the 100-year floodplain in the Woodacre area. Figure 3.77: 100-Year Floodplain – Woodacre Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 Figure 3.78 shows the 100-year floodplain in Tocoloma. Figure 3.78: 100-Year Floodplain – Tocoloma Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN \ a ~ "°""""°"'-Ulepr,.1 ---~~ \ \ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 205 Figure 3.79 shows the 100-year floodplain in Nicasio. Figure 3.79: 100-Year Floodplain – Nicasio Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 206 Figure 3.80 shows the 100-year floodplain outside of Nicasio to the east. Figure 3.80: 100-Year Floodplain –Nicasio East Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 Figure 3.81 shows the 100-year floodplain in Olema. Figure 3.81: 100-Year Floodplain –Olema Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ \ \ ..... ' / 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 207 Figure 3.82 shows the 100-year floodplain in Point Reyes Station and the area immediately south. Figure 3.82: 100-Year Floodplain – Point Reyes Station Area - South Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 208 Figure 3.83 shows the 100-year floodplain in the northern end of Point Reyes Station. Figure 3.83: 100-Year Floodplain – Point Reyes Station Area - North Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ I / 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 209 Figure 3.84 shows the 100-year floodplain in the Inverness Park area. Figure 3.84: 100-Year Floodplain – Inverness Park Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 210 Figure 3.85 shows the 100-year floodplain in the area south of Inverness. Figure 3.85: 100-Year Floodplain – Inverness South Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 211 Figure 3.86 shows the 100-year floodplain in Inverness. Figure 3.86: 100-Year Floodplain – Inverness Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 212 Figure 3.87 shows the 100-year floodplain in Reynolds/Marconi area. Figure 3.87: 100-Year Floodplain – Reynolds and Marconi Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 213 Figure 3.88 shows the 100-year floodplain in the Marshall area. Figure 3.88: 100-Year Floodplain – Marshall Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 214 Figure 3.89 shows the 100-year floodplain in the Tomales area. Figure 3.89: 100-Year Floodplain – Tomales Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ lpn HU . J t 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 215 Figure 3.90 shows the 100-year floodplain in the area north of Bolinas. Figure 3.90: 100-Year Floodplain – Bolinas North Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 216 Figure 3.91 shows the 100-year floodplain (blue) and the 500-year floodplain (brown) in Bolinas and the area west of Stinson Beach. Figure 3.91: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Bolinas and Stinson Beach West Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 217 Figure 3.92 shows the 100-year floodplain (blue) and the 500-year floodplain (brown) in Stinson Beach. Figure 3.92: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Stinson Beach Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N·TY OF a ~ARIN ~ Ull.NIAvenue I I \ ~ I ... ! I ' C...,i,,I""' ~ j I \ ••••·r I \ j J i l~A~~ ; 6 U&navo1aAvenue , .. ""' .... , .. I j J 1 • /j \ r+. ... 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 218 Figure 3.93 shows the 100-year floodplain in Muir Beach. Figure 3.93: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Muir Beach Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 Figure 3.94 shows the 100-year floodplain (blue) and the 500-year floodplain (brown) in the Tamalpais Valley Area. Figure 3.94: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Tamalpais Valley Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 219 Figure 3.95 shows the 100-year floodplain in Alto and Strawberry. Figure 3.95: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Alto and Strawberry Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN /; a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 220 Figure 3.96 shows the 100-year floodplain (blue) and the 500-year floodplain (brown) in Kentfield and Greenbrae. Figure 3.96: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Kentfield and Greenbrae Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N·TY OF a ~ARIN ~ V ..,).,. : . ~ { . ..- . ....__ " .. f 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 221 Figure 3.97 shows the 100-year floodplain in California City. Figure 3.97: 100-Year Floodplain – Marin City Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 222 Figure 3.98 shows the 100-year floodplain in Lucas Valley and Marinwood. Figure 3.98: 100-Year Floodplain – Lucas Valley and Marinwood Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ I I ! ! \ ; \ \ A I J I, ' I • ! ,., ' I'. .;" 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 223 Figure 3.99 shows the 100-year floodplain in Saint Vincent. Figure 3.99: 100-Year Floodplain – Saint Vincent Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 Figure 3.100 shows the 100-year and 500-year floodplain in the Santa Venetia area. Figure 3.100: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Santa Venetia Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ l l L '· I l .,/'<I' I .... I I Ii I I I I I """_,. I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 224 Figure 3.101 shows the 100-year floodplain (blue) and the 500-year floodplain (brown) in the San Pedro Hill area. Figure 3.101: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – San Pedro Hill Area Source: Marin County, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 225 Figure 3.102 shows the 100 and 500-year floodplains in Novato with critical facilities including the Marin County Landfill and the Marin County Airport. Figure 3.102: Novato Flooding - Marin County Landfill and Marin County airport Source: Marin County l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / Nova t o Area Fl ooding OI0rtlPrl Slat Legend • Dams Fi re Stations Military and Civil Hospita ls and Medical Defense I nstallations Facilities Communication 0 Pol ice / Sheriff Stations Faci li ties Schools Electric Power Faci lities Flooding Airports 0 Emergency Operations 500 Year Flood Plain Centers 100 Year Flood Plain ·2 omcu, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Miles 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 226 Figure 3.103 shows the100- and 500-year floodplain in San Rafael Area. Figure 3.103: Flooding in San Rafael Area Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / San Rafael Area Flooding Legend e Dams Communication Facilit ies Electric Power Faci lities Wastewater Facilities e Water Supply Facilities Airports Emergency Opera tions Centers Fi re Stations Hospi ta ls and Medical Fac ilities Po lice / Sh eri ff Stations Schools Flooding 500 Year Flood Plain 100 Year Fl ood Plain County of Marin, California State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin , SafeGraph, Geoli $ap Rafael .... • OfFIClllf EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT an 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 227 Figure 3.104 shows the 100-year floodplain in Bel Marin Keys. Figure 3.104: 100-Year Floodplain – Bel Marin Keys Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / Southern Marin Flooding om ClOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Legend Co m m unication Facilities Electric Po wer Fa cili t ies Wastewater Facilities Airports Em ergen cy Operations Centers Fire Stat ions Hospita ls and Medical Faci lities Police / Sheriff Stations Schools Flooding 500 Year Flood Plain 100 Year Flood Plain f Little Reed He ights Sausalito a li to !' 0 Belvedere 0 1.2 --c=:::::i•---Miles Woody Baker-Cohn arin Co unty.org Date /23 County of Marin, Californ ia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA, US GS Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 228 Figure 3.105 shows the 100-year floodplain in Bolinas. Figure 3.105: Stinson - Bolinas Area Flooding Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County/ Stinson -Solinas Flooding OfllCIOf EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Woodville Solinas Legend e Dams Communication Facilities Electric Power Facilities Fire Stations Hospita ls and Medical Facili t ies Schools Flooding 500 Yea r Flood Plain 100 Year Flood Plain 0 0.3 0.6 1.2 Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email : OEM_GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Printed: 10/30/23 St i ns on Bea ~ ~ N County of Marin, call fornla State Par ks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGra ph , Geo Tech nolog ies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bu reau of Land Manag ement, EPA, NPS , USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 229 Figure 3.106 shows flood control zones in the Marin County OA. Figure 3.106: Flood Control Zones in the Marin County OA Source: Marin County l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ l I I I ·~ ... ~~ .... Flood Control Zone Zone 1 -Novato Zone 3 • Richar dso n Bay ...... Zone 4 • Bel Aire and S1tav.1)erry Circle Zone 5 • Stinson 80.x -Zeno 6 -San Rafaol Meadows -Zone 7 -Santa Venetia -Zone 9 • Ross Valley -Zone 10 • Inverness Flood Control Zones N I M l 10 SONOMA County of Mari n Departmen t of Pu blic Works www.mari nwatershe ds.org \ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 230 Novato Creek in the northern part of the county historically caused damage to large numbers of homes, particularly in the 1960’s, until the Novato Flood Control Project was completed in eight construction phases starting in the 1980’s and continuing through 2006. Novato still experiences some damage during significant winter storms despite the completed Novato Creek Flood Control project. Power outages are also a frequent problem for one of the major pump stations in the area. Although the current Corte Madera Creek Flood Control project is partially complete (Unit 4 in the Town of Ross is yet to be constructed), flooding will still occur for storms greater than about a 5-year recurrence flood event. Potentially all nine southerly and some centrally located communities of the Marin County OA on this creek are impacted by high tides and heavy rains in above average winter storms. The north-east part of the county, densely populated around the floodplain zones, is threatened every winter and still experiences some damage during winter storms despite the completed Novato Creek Flood Control project. Since the middle of the last century, the winter/spring storms of 1950, 1955*, 1958*, 1963, 1964*, 1965, 1969*, 1970*, 1973*, 1978, 1980, 1982*, 1983*, 1986*, 1995*, 1996, 1997*, 1998*, 2002, 2005/2006*, 2006*, 2008, 2014, 2017, 2019 and 2023 caused significant damage across the Marin County OA. *Major Federal Disasters declared for flood. Flooding in December 1964 and January 1965 had widespread impacts across the Marin County OA. Floods were generally moderate to high. Precipitation was heavy in the San Rafael-Kentfield area. From December 19th-23rd, precipitation was 8.49 inches at Kentfield. From January 2nd-7th, precipitation at Kentfield was 7.45 inches. The flow in Corte Madera Creek was moderate but the stream flows and overflows of drains caused some local flooding in areas that are subject to frequent flooding in Kentfield. Flood flows in the Walker Creek basin in the northwestern part of Marin County exceeded previous maximum flows. A major winter storm originating over the Pacific Ocean moved through Marin County in early January 1982. The maximum rainfall from an area of high rainfall in southern Marin County was about 16 inches. The center of this storm was near Kentfield. Large areas of southern and western Marin County had total storm rainfall exceeding 10 inches. Numerous towns were under water, homes and businesses were destroyed, and many roads were damaged across the Marin County OA. The Inverness area was especially hit hard with floodwaters and debris flows. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 231 Figure 3.107: Damage in Inverness from 1982 Storm Source: Jack Mason Museum of West Marin History The New Year’s Eve 2005-2006 flood caused widespread damage in the Marin County OA. Easkoot Creek in Stinson Beach overflowed its banks. At least $219 million in damage was reported in the Marin County OA due to this storm. Over a thousand homes, apartments and businesses across the OA were damaged or destroyed. The Marin City exit off of Highway 101 was inundated with water and water covered all but one lane of southbound 101, creating a giant traffic jam. Western Marin County was scattered with downed trees, flooded roadways and mudslides. In 2014, Marin County sustained an estimated $13,321,134 in damage from flooding, mudslides, winds, high tides and other storm damage from a December 10th-11th downpour. There was an estimated $9,324,134 in damage to public property and $3,997,000 in private damages includes 34 homes, 11 businesses and two outbuildings. In 2017, a powerful February storm thrashed Marin County. Kentfield received 6.3 inches of rain in a 24-hour period. Other rainfall totals for the period included 2.3 inches in Point Reyes. The College of Marin closed its Kentfield campus because of the storm, and nine school districts canceled classes. Eleven private schools were closed. Pacific Gas and Electric Co. reported thousands of power outages in Marin, including in Kentfield and Lagunitas. Olema Road was closed at Westbrae Drive because of mud, flooding and debris, and flooding was reported on Sir Francis Drake Boulevard at the Bon Air Shopping Center in Greenbrae. In the San Geronimo Valley, flooding closed Sir Francis Drake Boulevard at West Cintura Avenue in Lagunitas. The National Park Service closed Muir Woods National Monument because of the weather. The Lagunitas School District and the Laguna Joint School canceled classes, while the Bolinas- Stinson Union School District closed the Stinson Beach campus and held classes at the Bolinas campus. In 2019, a storm on February 13th brought heavy rains to Marin County, saturating the ground and exacerbating high tides. County-maintained roads washed out and creeks overflowed their banks, endangering public infrastructure. Flooding occurred in Marin City and was particularly severe in areas of rural Marin. Highway 1 was impassable south of Tomales Petaluma Road and Sir Francis Drake Boulevard was only passable with high-clearance vehicles at Mount l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 232 Vision Road in Inverness. Rainfall totals for the storm included 4.3 inches on Mount Tamalpais and 4.16 inches in Kentfield. Figure 3.108: Flooding in Marin City – 2019 Storm Source: Marin Independent Journal In 2023, a storm on January 9th battered Marin county with rain and wind. Rainfall totaled 0.91 inches in Dillon Beach, 1.14 inches in Point Reyes Station, 1.69 inches in Kentfield, 3.04 inches in Woodacre and 2.04 inches on the middle peak of Mount Tamalpais. The Lagunitas School District, Shoreline Unified School District and two elementary schools in the Ross Valley School District stayed closed. More than 4,700 PG&E customers across the Marin County OA had no power at one point. Impacts Floods can cause substantial damage to structures, landscapes, and utilities as well as life safety issues throughout the Marin County OA, including in the unincorporated area. Floodwaters can transport large objects downstream, which can damage or remove stationary structures. Ground saturation can result in instability, collapse, or other damage. Objects can also be buried or destroyed through sediment deposition. Floodwaters can also break utilities lines and interrupt services. Standing water can cause damage to crops, roads, foundations, and electrical circuits. Certain health hazards are also common to flood events. Standing water can also cause septic tank failure and well contamination. Standing water and wet structures can become breeding grounds for microorganisms such as bacteria, mold, and viruses. This can cause disease, trigger allergic reactions, and damage materials long after the flood. When floodwaters contain sewage or decaying animal carcasses, infections become a concern. Direct impacts, such as drowning, can be limited with adequate warning and public education about what to do during floods. Where flooding occurs in populated areas, warning and evacuation will be of critical importance to reduce life and safety impacts from any type of flooding. Certain health hazards are also common to flood events. While such problems are often not reported, three general types of health hazards accompany floods. The first comes from the water itself. Floodwaters carry anything that was on the ground that the upstream runoff picked up, including dirt, oil, animal waste, and lawn, farm and industrial chemicals. Pastures and areas where cattle and hogs are kept or their wastes are stored can contribute polluted waters to the receiving streams. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 233 Floodwaters also saturate the ground, which leads to infiltration into sanitary sewer lines. When wastewater treatment plants are flooded, there is nowhere for the sewage to flow. Infiltration and lack of treatment can lead to overloaded sewer lines that can back up into low-lying areas and homes. Even when it is diluted by flood waters, raw sewage can be a breeding ground for bacteria such as e. coli and other disease-causing agents. Floodwaters may scour stream banks, edging properties closer to the floodplain or causing structures to collapse into floodwaters. Flooding is also responsible for hazards such as landslides when high flows over- saturate soils on steep slopes, causing them to fail. Hazardous materials spills are also a secondary hazard of flooding if storage tanks rupture and spill into streams, rivers, or storm drains. The second type of health problem arises after most of the water has gone. Stagnant pools can become breeding grounds for mosquitoes, and wet areas of a building that have not been properly cleaned breed mold and mildew. A building that is not thoroughly cleaned becomes a health hazard, especially for small children and the elderly. Another health hazard occurs when heating ducts in a forced air system are not properly cleaned after inundation. When the furnace or air conditioner is turned on, the sediments left in the ducts are circulated throughout the building and breathed in by the occupants. If a water system loses pressure, a boil order may be issued to protect people and animals from contaminated water. The third problem is the long-term psychological impact of having been through a flood and seeing one’s home damaged and irreplaceable keepsakes destroyed. The cost and labor needed to repair a flood-damaged home puts a severe strain on people, especially the unprepared and uninsured. There is also a long-term problem for those who know that their homes can be flooded again. The resulting stress on floodplain residents takes its toll in the form of aggravated physical and mental health problems. Additional growth in or around the Marin County OA could contribute to increased flooding in the county. Many historic and cultural resources are located in the mapped flood zones. The impact of damage resulting from the flooding hazard, as mentioned, can be extremely variable. Nevertheless, most damage results from rising water that inundates residences and buildings, damage to infrastructure and critical facilities, and loss of ingress and egress by the population in the affected areas and the inability of the jurisdictions emergency response capabilities. Damage from flooding can range from minimal, where the damage to an individual home can be on the order of a few thousand dollars to the complete loss of a building or loss of life from the inability to evacuate from the rising floodwaters. The diversity and dispersion of the Marin County OA’s flood hazards, in addition to the tendency for floods to be flashy in nature, make response to emergencies more difficult and increase the need for planning and community awareness in areas of increased flood risk. While property damage to structures within 100-year flood zones is a major concern, damage to roads, utilities, and other supporting infrastructure located in these zones can potentially impact areas of the community outside of the flood zones as well. Arroyo Corte Madera del Presidio is at risk of overtopping due to less than a 5-year flow. On average Corte Madera Creek and Easkoot Creek are at risk of overflowing their banks due to 5- 10 year flow events. Novato Creek overflows in some locations due to 10-year flow. Coyote l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 234 Creek and Gallinas Creek are more vulnerable to overtopping due to tidal elevations and may be able to carry 100-year riverine flows at low tides. Extent and Probability In areas such as Marin County that do not have extended periods of below-freezing temperatures or significant snowfall, floods usually occur during the season of highest precipitation or during heavy rainfalls after prolonged dry periods. Marin County is dry during the late spring, summer, and early fall and receives most of its rain during the winter months. The rainfall season extends from November through April, with most rainfall occurring during this period. Due to varying microclimates within the County, rainfall measured in water year 2016- 2017 where there are Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District-owned gages ranged inland from as low as 47 inches in Novato to over 82 inches in Kentfield. Along the coast, rainfall ranged from 36 inches at Oceana Marin to 45 inches at Point Reyes Station. In should be noted winter 2016-2017 was an unusually wet year. An average of 56 inches of rain falls each year at the summit of Mount Tamalpais, at 2,572 feet elevation. The rain collects in several channels, flowing down steep slopes and onto broad, flat valleys, many of which are populated. The valleys usually only receive on average 32 inches of rain per year, thus flows from the uplands contribute greatly to flows on the valley floor. During most rainfall events, waterways remain within their channels or underground pipes until they reach a bay or the ocean. The Marin County OA has several major 100-year and 500-year floodplains which are mapped by FEMA in the most recent Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM), several of which were recently updated in 2016 and 2017 (see above). While they may look small relative to the size of the County as a whole, the bulk of the floodplains are located in some of the County’s most heavily populated areas along the eastern shoreline: notably portions of Novato, San Rafael, and Mill Valley. These floodplains vary in size, probability and severity of inundation, underlying causes (riverine, tidal, etc.), and potential impacts to the communities in them. The areas of most concern are located in what is designated by FEMA as a 100-year flood zone or Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). What is currently considered a 100-year flood may occur more often due to climate change. Due to the increased probabilities of flooding (1% chance in any given year), these properties face high insurance premiums and major restrictions on further development. Along the Pacific Ocean there are a number of homes in Stinson Beach which are mapped as being in a VE zone. A VE zone is a 100-year flood zone where tsunamis or other forms of wave action threaten low lying coastal areas. For some of the developments along the San Francisco Bay, such as Santa Venetia and Tamalpais Valley, the main issues concern poor drainage due to flat terrain and/or differential settlement, low elevation relative to the tides, and the reliance on a system of pumps and levees to keep floodwaters from inundating homes. Runoff collecting in this area can be especially difficult to remove during high tides. Other more inland areas, such as areas along Corte Madera Creek and its tributaries, have higher elevations yet still contain properties located in 100-year flood zones. This is mainly due to threats caused by local creeks which have a tendency to overflow their banks when rainfall reaches critical levels. Properties along Novato Creek and its tributaries face similar threats. The main stems of these creeks and many of their tributaries are constrained by development on the banks. When flooding occurs in the Marin County OA, depths are commonly on the order of 0-2 feet in streets and sidewalks. This level occurs when storm drains are overwhelmed and/or during king l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 235 tides. Flood depths on the order of 2- 4 feet have occurred in recent memory and represent significant flood events that caused damage to structures and property. 1982 was the most extreme flood of record along Corte Madera Creek in Central Marin County and probably had some inundations depths as high as 5 feet. In 2016 the FEMA San Francisco Bay Coastal Study became effective and raised the static Base Flood Elevation of the Bay to an elevation of 10-feet NAVD88. This level of flooding has not been observed but is feasible in any given year. If this level of tidal flooding was to occur along the bay shoreline there would be inundation depths as much as 6-8 feet in neighborhoods such as Santa Venetia. On the Marin County OA’s outer coast V zones have BFEs of up to 22 feet according to FIRMs updated August 2017. In the unincorporated community of Stinson Beach this corresponds to a maximum inundation depth of 8-10 feet. Although some houses were destroyed by wave action and storm surge during the 1982 event, nothing approaching this level of inundation has occurred in recorded history here. The other index for extent is the speed of onset of flooding or the rainfall-runoff lag time, which doesn’t apply to tidal flooding. The riverine flooding comes directly from rainfall runoff of adjacent uplands in the County’s series of relatively small, short watersheds. While antecedent moisture is a big factor, this flash flooding is typically short duration and directly associated with the magnitude of the passing storm system. These storms, often in the form of atmospheric rivers coming off the Pacific Ocean, can last anywhere from a few hours to a day or two. The speed of onset of flooding ranges from minutes to about 2 hours after the precipitation exceeds the drainage capacity. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 236 Table 3.12: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Flooding Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Highly Likely Limited Severe High Medium 14.00 City of Belvedere Highly Likely Limited Severe High Medium 14.00 Town of Corte Madera Likely Significant Severe High High 15.00 Town of Fairfax Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 City of Larkspur Occasional Limited Severe High Medium 12.00 City of Mill Valley Occasional Extensive Severe Medium Medium 13.00 City of Novato Likely Negligible Weak Medium Low 8.00 Town of Ross Highly Likely Significant Severe High High 16.00 Town of San Anselmo Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 City of San Rafael Highly Likely Significant Severe High High 16.00 City of Sausalito Likely Significant Moderate High Medium 13.00 Town of Tiburon Highly Likely Limited Severe High Medium 14.00 Bolinas Public Utility District Likely Limited Moderate High Medium 12.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Likely Significant Moderate Medium High 13.00 North Marin Water District Occasional Significant Severe High Medium 13.00 Southern Marin Fire District Likely Limited Moderate Medium Medium 11.00 Table 3.12: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Flooding Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 237 Vulnerability Prior to development, the Marin County OA’s flat lowlands flooded frequently. When rain fell on the Marin County OA, it infiltrated into the ground and moved slowly toward creek channels. The ground acted like a sponge, storing water and releasing it slowly. While water moved underground, it was naturally cleansed by physical and biological processes. Annual floods brought life-giving water to parched floodplains, nourishing them with fresh sediment. They recharged aquifers and allowed fish to swim over normally dry land that was rich with food. Tides flooded biologically rich marshes along the bay perimeter twice a day. When humans began to develop the land, they created conflicts between what was built and the natural tendency of creeks to flood. Much of the development in the Marin County OA was built in flood- prone areas which put it at risk of inundation. Roads, parking lots, roofs, and other impervious surfaces prevent water from infiltrating the ground. Instead, the water moves quickly across the landscape into pipes and creeks further increasing flood risk downstream. Homes, commercial areas, schools, hospitals, police and fire stations, roads and highways, sanitary sewers and waterlines, sewage treatment plants, pump stations are all located in floodplains in the Marin County OA. All of Marin County OA’s watersheds are small and largely prone to flash flooding. Flash floods are particularly dangerous. The National Weather Service (NWS) defines a flash flood as one in which the peak flow travels the length of a watershed within a 6-hour period. These floods arise when storms produce a high volume of rainfall in a short period over a watershed where runoff collects quickly. They often affect populated areas of the Marin County OA’s cities and towns. They often strike with little warning and are accompanied by high velocity flow. All incorporated cities and towns in the Marin County OA have flood risk – and are in fact participants in the National Flood Insurance Program. Even those that are not in a Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District “Flood Zone,” have robust maintenance and capital improvement programs that help manage and mitigate flood risk. These cities without District Flood Zones include most of San Rafael and Tiburon, and all of Corte Madera, Sausalito, and Belvedere. Additionally, San Anselmo, Ross, Larkspur, Fairfax, Mill Valley and Novato have flood mitigation programs that operate largely independently of the Flood District, although extensive coordination of activities and collaboration with the Flood District is facilitated through the Marin County Watershed Program (part of the County Department of Public Works). Every city and town, and many unincorporated communities in Marin contain FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA), meaning they lie in the 100-year floodplain and have at least a 1% chance of flooding in a given year. They all participate in the National Flood Insurance Program and many of the structures in the SFHA carry FEMA flood insurance or private flood insurance. Flood risk to the Marin County OA’s incorporated cities and towns are discussed in their respective Annexes. Most unincorporated communities in the Marin County OA have some level of flood risk, as discussed below: Lagunitas, Forest Knolls, San Geronimo and Woodacre all lie along San Geronimo Creek. Dozens of homes lie in the 100 -year floodplain of the creek and could be susceptible to flooding. Sir Francis Drake Boulevard could be susceptible to flooding where it is crossed by Lagunitas Creek and San Geronimo Creek at the south end of Lagunitas. Several road bridges on the south side of San Geronimo Creek that connect residential communities to Sir Francis Drake Boulevard could be susceptible to flooding that could cut off ingress and egress to the area. Numerous residences and businesses in Nicasio and along Lucas Valley Road to the west of Nicasio lie in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. Nicasio Valley Road could flood in several places on both sides of Nicasio. Numerous buildings in Tocoloma, including the Tocoloma PG&E substation, lie in the 100-year floodplain. Sir Francis Drake l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 238 Boulevard could also be susceptible to flooding where Lagunitas Creek crosses it at Platform Bridge Road. Much of Olema west of Highway 1 and along Olema Creek is in the 100-year floodplain. There are numerous residences and businesses in this area, including the Olema Campground. The southern end of Point Reyes Station is particularly susceptible to flooding, including the area where Highway 1 intersects with Sir Francis Drake Boulevard. There are numerous homes and businesses in this area, along with the CalTrans Point Reyes Maintenance Station that lie in the 100 -year floodplain. Flooding along Highway 1 and Sir Francis Drake Boulevard from either Lagunitas Creek or Tomales Bay could affect ingress and egress to Point Reyes Station, Inverness and Point Reyes National Seashore. Several buildings in the south and west sides of Point Reyes Station and at the U.S. Coast Guard Station lie in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. Highway 1 and several homes north of Point Reyes Station also lie in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. Several homes, businesses and sections of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard from Inverness Park to Inverness lie in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding from either Tomales Bay or inland canyons. Sections of the east shore of Tomales Bay along Highway 1, including around Reynolds and Marconi, lie in the 100-year flood plain and are susceptible to flooding. Most of the residences and businesses in Marshall lie in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding from Tomales Bay. While most of Tomales is outside the 100-year floodplain, the area south of it has numerous residences and businesses along Keys Creek and Walker Creek that are in the 100 -year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. An area north of Bolinas along Pine Gulch Creek and the Bolinas lagoon lie in the 100-year floodplain. Numerous residences, the Bolinas-Stinson Elementary School, and a section of Olema Bolinas Road are in this area and could be susceptible to flooding. While most of Bolinas lies outside the 100-year floodplain, there are numerous residences along Bolinas Lagoon and Bolinas Bay that are in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. Most of the residences in Stinson Beach along Dipsea Road and Seadrift Road in Stinson Beach lie in the 500 -year floodplain, though several lie in an area of the 100-year floodplain and could be particularly susceptible to coastal flooding. Most of the residences closer to Stinson Beach along Cale del Arroyo lie in the 100 -year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding, with some that could be particularly susceptible to coastal flooding. Some homes, the Stinson Beach Fire Station 32, and the Stinson County Water District Office lie in the 500-year plain in this area and could also be susceptible to flooding. Numerous residences and businesses in and around the southern core of Stinson Beach lie in the 500 and 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. The east side of Muir Beach along Railroad Creek lies in the 100-year floodplain. Numerous residences and a section of Highway 1 could be susceptible to flooding in this area. Flooding of Highway 1 could affect ingress and egress north towards Stinson Beach. Most of the Tamalpais Junction area of Tamalpais Valley along Coyote Creek and the creek along Tennessee Valley Road lies in the 100-year floodplain, with a smaller section lying in the 500 -year floodplain. Numerous residences lie in the 500-year floodplain and could be susceptible to either creek flooding or flooding from Richardson Bay. Hundreds of residences, a church, the Tamalpais Valley Community Center, part of the Tamalpais Valley Elementary School, a large shopping center with numerous businesses, the CalTrans Manzanita Station, sections of Highway 1, a section of Highway 101 and the Commodore Center Heliport all lie in l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 239 the 100 -year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. Most of the Strawberry and Alto areas lie outside the 100 and 500-year floodplain, though dozens of residences, several apartment complexes, numerous commercial buildings and part of the Strawberry Point Middle School lie in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. A small area north of Keil Cove on the Tiburon Peninsula where there are several homes also lies in the 100- yearfloodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. A large part of Kentfield lying along Corte Madera Creek is in the 100-year floodplain. Dozens of homes, numerous businesses and shopping centers, the Adeline E. Kent Middle School, parts of the College of Marin and the Kentfield Hospital, and sections of major thoroughfares including Sir Francis Drake Boulevard and College Avenue lie in this area and could be susceptible to flooding. Most of the College of Marin (including the College of Marin Police Department), part of the Kentfield Hospital and the Marin Health Medical Center, all of Marin Catholic High School and Anthony G. Bacich Elementary School, the Kentfield Fire Station #17, several medical facilities, dozens of homes, numerous businesses and a large section of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard in the Kentfield area lie in the 500-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. There are dozens of homes in the Greenbrae area that lie in the 500- year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. A section of California City on the north side near Anderson Drive and the railroad tracks lie in the 100-year floodplain and there are several homes here along with the Montessori School of Central Marin that could be susceptible to flooding. The 100-year floodplain in Lucas Valley and Marinwood is mostly confined to Miller Creek and while most buildings and infrastructure are not in the 100-year floodplain, part of it runs along the edge of Lucas Valley Elementary School, the Miller Creek Middle School and the Marin County Juvenile Complex that could all be susceptible to flooding. There are several bridges, including on Lucas Valley Road and Highway 101, along with several homes in Marinwood that lie in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. Part of the Saint Vincent School in Saint Vincent is also in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. The northwestern corner of Santa Venitia along the San Venetia Open Space Preserve lies in the 100 -year floodplain, and there are several hundred homes along with a few pump stations and critical care facilities in this area that could be susceptible to flooding. Sections of San Pedro Boulevard and areas of San Pedro Point, including part of the McNear Brickyard, lie in the 100 -year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. Several homes in the unincorporated County along San Pedro Boulevard near San Rafael lie in either the 100-year or 500-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. Part of the County Redwood Landfill and all of the Marin County airport, including the access road, lie in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. This area is mostly marshland that could experience coastal flooding. Most of the Green Point-Black Point area lies outside the 100-year floodplain though there are several homes in the Black Point area near marshland that lie in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. Numerous homes in Bel Marin Keys and sections of Bel Marin Keys Boulevard lie in the 100- year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding. A flooding event could affect ingress and egress to Bel Marin Keys. San Antonio Creek forms part of the boundary between Marin and Sonoma Counties from the area around Chileno Valley Road east to the Petaluma River and there are several homes along it that lie in the 100-year floodplain and that could be susceptible to flooding. There are also l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 240 several road bridges that cross the creek in the 100-year floodplain and that could be susceptible to flooding. Figure 3.109 shows the social vulnerability of the Marin County OA’s population to flooding in relation to the rest of California. Figure 3.109: Population/Social Vulnerability to Flooding in California Source: 2018 State of California Hazard Mitigation Plan l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 0 25 50 100 M iles I Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo City and Regional Planning June 20 18 Population/Social Vulnerability with Flood Hazard Relative Vulnerability High Low Grid cell size app roxi mately one square kilometer. Cells with populati on <75 are not mapped . 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 241 Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change is expected to affect California's precipitation patterns, which are likely to influence future flood events. A 2017 study found that the number of very intense precipitation days in California is projected to more than double by the end of the century, increasing 117 percent, making it likely that flood events will become more frequent in the Marin County OA. Climate change is expected to alter rainfall patterns in Northern California, including the Marin County OA. As the climate warms, rain events are predicted to become more intense. The Marin County OA will likely experience more rain inundation events that lead to flooding and increase the potential threat of dam and levee failure, tree mortality, and other potential hazards. Sea level rise as a result of climate change will exacerbate the impacts of tidal flooding in the lowland areas of the Marin County OA. Future development in these areas will expose more people and infrastructure to the effects of flooding in the Marin County OA. Development in marshland of the Marin County OA would expose additional people and infrastructure to flooding as marshlands act as a natural buffer to storm surge. 3.3.6 LAND SUBSIDENCE Land subsidence is a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth's surface owing to subsurface movement of earth materials. The principal causes are aquifer-system compaction, drainage of organic soils through groundwater pumping, underground mining, hydro- compaction, natural compaction, sinkholes, and thawing permafrost. More than 80 percent of the identified subsidence in the United States is a consequence of underground water exploitation. The increasing development of land and water resources threatens to exacerbate existing land-subsidence problems and initiate new ones. Sinkholes can form in three primary ways. Dissolution sinkholes form when dissolution of the limestone or dolomite is most intensive where the water first contacts the rock surface. Aggressive dissolution also occurs where flow is focused in preexisting openings in the rock, such as along joints, fractures, and bedding planes, and in the zone of water-table fluctuation where groundwater is in contact with the atmosphere. See Figure 3.110 for a picture and description of how dissolution sinkholes form. Figure 3.110: Dissolution Sinkhole Formation Source: USGS Cover-subsidence sinkholes tend to develop gradually where the covering sediments are permeable and contain sand. In areas where cover material is thicker, or sediments contain more clay, cover-subsidence sinkholes are relatively uncommon, are smaller, and may go 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ Th in overburden Ra in ---1 r---,--- Ra infal l an d surface water percolate through joints in the limestone. Disso lved carbonate rock is carried away from the surface and a sm all depress ion gradua lly forms . On ex posed carbonate surfaces. a depression may focus surface dra in age, accelerating the dissolution process. Debri s carried int o the deve lopi ng sinkhole may plug the outflow, ponding water and creating wetlands. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 242 undetected for long periods. See Figure 3.111 for a picture and description of how cover- subsidence sinkholes form. Figure 3.111: Cover-Subsidence Sinkhole Formation Source: USGS Cover-collapse sinkholes may develop abruptly over a period of hours and cause catastrophic damages. They occur where the covering sediments contain a significant amount of clay. Over time, surface drainage, erosion, and deposition of sediment transform the steep-walled sinkhole into a shallower bowl-shaped depression. See Figure 3.112 for a picture and description of how cover-collapse sinkholes form. Figure 3.112: Cover-Collapse Sinkhole Formation Source: USGS New sinkholes have been correlated to land-use practices, especially from groundwater pumping and from construction and development practices that cause land subsidence. Sinkholes can also form when natural water-drainage patterns are changed and new water- diversion systems are developed. Some sinkholes form when the land surface is changed, such as when industrial and runoff-storage ponds are created. The substantial weight of the new material can trigger an underground collapse of supporting material, thus causing a sinkhole. The overburden sediments that cover buried cavities in the aquifer systems are delicately balanced by groundwater fluid pressure. The water below ground helps to keep the surface soil in place. Groundwater pumping for urban water supply and for irrigation can produce new sinkholes in sinkhole-prone areas. If pumping results in a lowering of groundwater levels, then underground structural failure, and thus, sinkholes, can occur. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY O F a ~ARIN ~ Granular se diments spall into secondary openings in the underlying carbonate rocks. :o vero~en' •. A column of overlying sedi- ments settles into the vacated spaces (a process termed "piping"). Sed im ents spall into a cavity. As spa lling co ntinues, the cohesive covering sedi- ments form a structura l arch. Gverei:irden --------- ,most1¥,d<¥)-~------ --y ·----.."I_.,,,·•,-,,~_,..-~ Dissolution and infil ling con- tinue, forming a noticable depression in the land surface. The cavity m igrates up- wa rd by progress ive roof co ll apse. The slow downward erosion eventually forms small sur- face depressions I inch to several feet in depth and diameter. The cavity eventually breaches the ground sur- face, creating sudden and dramatic sinkholes. r 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 243 Location and Previous Occurrences Collapsible soils with the potential for subsidence (i.e., vertical displacement of the ground surface over a locality or region) are more present in the low-lying flatland deposits along the Marin County OA’s valley basins and bays, including in the unincorporated area. In the low-lying exposed areas in nearly every community, except Kentfield, subsidence is an ongoing issue. Roadways throughout the Marin County OA along the shoreline, notably US Highway 101, and roads in lower Paradise Cay, already experience subsidence. See Figure 3.113 for a map of land subsidence and uplift in California and the Marin County OA from 2007-2018. Areas of increased subsidence occur along San Francisco Bay with an area of uplift on both sides of the northern end of Tomales Bay. Figure 3.113: Land Subsidence in California 2007-2018 with Marin County Cutout l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN J,. a ~ Pacific Ocean ')f __ 1"'0"-0 -'~"''--- \ I \ Vertical Land Motion Rate (mm/yea r) 0 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 244 Source: NASA Figure 3.114 shows the areas of the United States where certain rock types that are susceptible to dissolution in water occur. In these areas the formation of underground cavities can form, and sinkholes can happen. These rock types are evaporites (salt, gypsum, and anhydrite) and carbonates (limestone and dolomite). Figure 3.114: U.S. Rock types Susceptible to Water Dissolution Source: USGS Impacts Land subsidence has the potential to damage drinking water wells and infrastructure throughout the Marin County OA, including in the unincorporated area. Loss of drinking water for rural communities can cause health problems as well as significant financial impacts with the re- drilling and testing of wells and providing alternate potable water sources for community members. Prolonged drought can exacerbate the impacts from land subsidence. As the water table is drawn down, land can sink even further and damage underground aquifers. Critical infrastructure such as highways, sewer lines, and gas lines can also become undermined due to land subsidence and sinkholes, becoming a threat to public safety and resulting in the devotion of significant financial resources to fix any damages. Sinkholes can form in parking lots, or directly under houses and other structures, potentially causing loss of life and significant damage. Extent and Probability Many shoreline properties in the Marin County OA, including in the unincorporated area, are built on fill and mud, and underlying soils will become more saturated under sea level rise conditions and, consequently, vulnerable to increasing rates of subsidence. Subsidence is already a factor for many roads and will likely worsen as the ground becomes saturated with bay or coastal waters further inland. Utilities infrastructure located along the shoreline on fill and mud and in the bay itself, which already experiences the effects of subsidence, will be subject to increased levels of subsidence in the future. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ ~ Evapor ite rock s-salt and gyp sum D Kar st from evapo rite rock D Ka rst from carbonate rock (mod ified from Davies an d Leg ra nd , 1972 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 245 Table 3.13: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Land Subsidence Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 City of Belvedere Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 Town of Corte Madera Likely Negligible Weak Low Low 7.00 Town of Fairfax Occasional Negligible Weak Low Low 6.00 City of Larkspur Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 City of Mill Valley Likely Negligible Moderate Low Low 8.00 City of Novato Likely Negligible Weak Low Low 7.00 Town of Ross Unlikely Limited Weak Low Low 6.00 Town of San Anselmo Unlikely Negligible Moderate Low Low 6.00 City of San Rafael Highly Likely Significant Weak Low Medium 11.00 City of Sausalito Likely Limited Moderate Medium Medium 11.00 Town of Tiburon Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 Bolinas Public Utility District Likely Limited Moderate Medium Medium 11.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Occasional Negligible Weak Low Low 6.00 North Marin Water District Occasional Negligible Moderate Medium None 7.00 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 246 Southern Marin Fire District Unlikely Negligible Severe None Low 6.00 Table 3.13: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Land Subsidence Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts Vulnerability Land subsidence can severely impact public facilities and infrastructure as well as private development in areas where it occurs through the damage or compete failure of underground utilities, damaged building or utility infrastructure foundations, damaged roadways, etc. Vulnerable substations; electrical transmission towers and lines; underground natural gas water supply, and sanitary sewer pipelines; pump stations; hazardous facilities, including those with underground storage tanks (e.g., gas stations); and other facilities and infrastructure along the shoreline would be compromised by subsidence. Subsidence can lead to damage to healthcare facilities, private wells, and general drinking water quality. Subsidence can place pressure on underground utility pipelines when roadways begin to sink around the pipes, causing them to bend. Electrical transmission towers, including land-based towers east of Bel Marin Keys and South of Novato over to the Sonoma County border and in the bay off the shores of Corte Madera and Mill Valley, are subject to increased rates of subsidence, which can impact the mounting platforms that support the towers. Landfills are often subjected to subsidence because they are typically located where marshes once existed, and because buried materials settle over time. Jetties, which are structures built into the water to protect a harbor or shore, are also prone to subsidence. Transportation facilities along the OA’s coastline are vulnerable to subsidence. Increased subsidence could warp the buildings and runways at Marin County Airport in North Novato and San Rafael Airport. Parking and access areas along Richardson Bay, including those in Waldo Point Harbor, are also prone to continuous subsidence. As discussed above, roadways and highways along the shoreline also suffer from subsidence. Important cultural resources, including archaeological sites at or near the edge of the bay may be vulnerable to subsidence. Vulnerable sites include permanent settlements represented by shell mounds or middens associated with marshes and other locations at or near the edge of the bay where shellfish/marine resources were available. The areas of the Marin County OA most vulnerable to land subsidence are those underlain with the younger Holocene unconsolidated alluvial and colluvial sediments, and even more so the younger bay muds. In general, Marin County unincorporated community shoreline properties, especially those in Southern Marin on fill in the low-lying areas east of US Highway 101, are the most exposed and vulnerable to subsidence. Almonte, Belvedere, Santa Venetia, Paradise Cay and Bel Marin Keys were built on bay fill and mud, and already experience subsidence. This impacts buildings, roads, and utility infrastructure. These areas could anticipate increased rates of subsidence as bay waters saturate the soil from below. Land subsidence is an ongoing issue in the low-lying exposed areas of nearly every unincorporated Bayshore community, except for Kentfield, and sea level rise associated with climate change would only exacerbate existing subsidence impacts. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 247 Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change could indirectly influence land subsidence as more severe and prolonged periods of drought may encourage more groundwater withdrawals. In coastal areas like the Marin County OA, land subsidence leads to higher sea levels and increased flood risk. The rate of land subsidence could increase across the Marin County OA as a result of climate change. The impacts of land subsidence on infrastructure, including roads and underground utilities, in the Marin County OA could increase with future development in the lowland populated areas where land subsidence is more likely to occur. 3.3.7 LEVEE FAILURE Levee failure is the overtopping, breach or collapse of the levee. Levees can fail in the event of an earthquake, internal erosion, poor engineering/construction or landslides, but levees most commonly fail as a result of significant rainfall or very high tides. During a period of heavy rainfall, the water on the water-body side of the levee can build up and either flow over the top (“overtopping”) or put pressure on the structure causing quickening seepage and subsequent erosion of the earth. The overflow of water washes away the top portion of the levee, creating deep grooves. Eventually the levee weakens, resulting in a breach or collapse of the levee wall and the release of uncontrollable amounts of water. Figure 3.115 shows a levee and the multiple ways it can fail. Figure 3.115: Levee Failure Mechanisms Source: University of California Location and Previous Occurrences Several Marin County OA communities, such as Tamalpais Valley, Santa Venetia, Corte Madera, Belvedere, and parts of Strawberry, Novato, and Ross Valley are protected by levees. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Anat.omy of a levee 2, Internal Eros ion/Piping 5. Wave lmpa<U 8. Piping •Of substratum I a. Overtopping 1 b. Overtopping/Jetting 3. Surface Erosion 4.Sl iding 6. Structural Impacts 7. Liquefaction 9. Tree damage 10. Slope fa I lure 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 248 Levees are typically earthen embankments designed to contain, control, or divert the flow of water to provide some level of protection from flooding. No levee system provides full protection from all flooding events to the people and structures located behind it. Some level of flood risk exists in the levee-affected areas. Except for one levee system in Novato-Hamilton, none of the County’s levees are FEMA-accredited. Many were built many decades ago (non-engineered) by farmers or developers and material may have been added over the years. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 249 Figure 3.116: Marin County Levee System Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County Levee DfllctOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT .r> ~,-J'•, • ..,_._) v· ( • ' IT] • o,nl Reyes National Seashore ' • • • • Legend e Dams • Military and Civ il Defense Installations Communication Facilities Electric Power Fac ilities Wastewater Facilities e Wate r Supp ly Fac ilit ies Airports Em ergency Operations Center s Fi re Stations Ho sp itals and Medical Fac ilities • Police / Sheriff Stations Schools -Levee Cente rline Levee Inundation • IOI \II --.,_ • • • • • 0 2 .5 .,,._ ___ { 10 Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Baker -Cohn email: OEM _GIS @MarinCo unty.org Date Printed : 10/19/23 12 ,., 37 San Pablo Bay WIidiife Area N County of Ma ri n, callforn ia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Technolog ies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, US DA , County of Marin, ca li fomia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGrap h, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 250 The Coyote Creek Left Bank Levee System (COYL) is a federally authorized and non-federally operated and maintained project and is located in the County of Marin on the west shore of Richardson Bay, an arm on the western side of San Francisco Bay where the Coyote Creek drains approximately 2,200 acres of the eastern slopes of the Marin Peninsula. The COYL is 0.96 miles long with a maximum height of four feet. The COYL is one of the two flood protection systems of the Coyote Creek flood control project and is situated along the left bank of the creek when looking downstream. The other system is along the right bank of Coyote Creek. There is only one segment within the COYL. The subject levee system is located along the left bank of Coyote Creek and is approximately 1.5 miles long. The purpose of the levee is to provide flood protection to the community of Tamalpais Valley, California. The channel improvement project for Coyote Creek, located in the County of Marin, California, was authorized by the Chief of Engineers on January 15, 1963, under the provisions of Section 205 of the Flood Control Act of 1948, as amended by the Flood Control Act of 1962. The COYL was completed in February 1965. Improvements to the project to address the local subsidence were completed in 1977. The public sponsor of the COYL is the Marin County Department of Public Works. The other Coyote Creek Levee system is an additional smaller levee that was constructed on the right bank in 1965. It is 0.22 miles long with a maximum height of four feet. The levee from the Highway 1 bridge to the downstream end is no longer maintained. Figures 3.17 - 3.19 show the levees and Levee inundation in the Tamalpais Valley Figure 3.117: Levees in Tamalpais Valley Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Tamalpais V alley Junction 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 251 Figure 3.118: Levees in Strawberry Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 11/27/23 The horseshow shaped levee at the Sewerage Agency of Southern Marin (SASM) shown in Figure 3.121, according to the Mill Valley Department of Public Works, the levee at the SASM is above the high tide water mark and is not technically a levee but rather a berm to hold extra water storage at the side. It is not acting as a flood wall. The City of Mill Valley has no risk of levee failure. 1 ~<?U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ Stra.,•ber Rec1ea1011 District strawberry Manor 01-::trict strawberry Go Id e n Ga le Bapt, st Th eologica I Se m 1 nary 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 252 Figure 3.119: Tam Junction Levees Source: Marin County OEM Sewerage Agency of Southern Marin (SASM) berm. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Wastewater Faci lities Airports Emergency Operati on s Cente rs Fire St ations Tam Junction Levee Hospitals and Medical Fac ili t ies Police / Sheriff Statio ns Schools Levee Centerline Levee Inundation Strawberr y Manor 0 "' ... ~,>fb''b b',; Mari n County O / Woo emai l : OEM _GIS @MarinC Date Printed: 10/19/23 County of Marin , Californ ia State Parks, Esri, HE RE , Garmin, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of la USDA, County of Marin, Ca li fornia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau omcu1 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 0.6 Miles n 6 N 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 253 One levee system exists in Kentfield and is located along Corte Madera Creek. The Corte Madera Creek Left Bank Levee is 0.7 miles long with an undocumented height. Figure 3.120 shows the Corte Madera Creek Left Bank Levee in Kentfield. Figure 3.120: Levee in Kentfield Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 1ark 1 I Stadium Way -Ke ntfie ld Co lleg e o f M•rin l<sntha ld C ampu s-Ma rin C ommuni ty Co ll e g:- ,_ Acacia p..ve E scalle -Ke nlfol:J Hal Bru,vn Pari< Ma rin C ath o li e. High &;iuof - Roln3n Ca tho lr. Ross ValE'y s-.,.,m And Tennt. Club 1350 So Eli reo Ltd P Pa ss port 1-13 a llh Green brae Red"ood l ., / \ I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 254 Figure 3.121 shows the Greenbrae Levee system: Figure 3.121: Greenbrae Levee System Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ La , pur Communication Facilities Green brae Levee Hospitals and Medical Facilities Police / Sheriff Stations Schools Levee Centerline Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Fac ilities Emergency Ope rations Centers -Levee Inundation Fire Stations County of Marin, Calif!l[nia Stat e Pa rks, Esri, HE USDA, County of Maritr1 li fomia State Parks, E 1 omCEOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT \ SartOuenun Stat Pnso Miles in County OEM / Baker-Cohn ii : llf.tt GIS@Marin ounty.org P~: 10/19/23 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 255 The McNears sea wall runs along Point San Pedro Road from roughly Marine Drive to the McNear Brickyard and is located along San Pablo Bay. The McNears sea wall is approximately 1.4 miles long with an undocumented height. Figure 3.122 shows the sea wall. Figure 3.122: McNears Sea Wall in the San Pedro Hill Area Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 11/27/23 One levee system exists in Santa Venetia and is located along the South Fork of Galinas Creek. The Santa Venetia Levee is 1.45 miles long with an undocumented height. Figure 3.12 3 shows the Santa Venetia Levee in Santa Venetia. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN j; a ~ lagoon P oint S an Pedro S.1nRabfll FbckQw,11) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 256 Figure 3.123: Santa Venetia Levee in Santa Venetia Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 11/27/23 Three levee systems exist in St. Vincent. Two of them, Marin County Levee 33 and Marin County Levee 24, are located along the north bank of Miller Creek. Marin County Levee 33 is 0.25 miles long with an undocumented height and Marin County Levee 24 is 0.2 miles long with an undocumented height. The third levee is the Las Galinas Valley Sanitary District Levee which extends along the north and east bank of Miller Creek before diverging north to the Hamilton Wetlands and west to Long Point. It is 3.63 miles long with an undocumented height. Figure 3.124 shows the three levees in St. Vincent. l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Estancia Wax Santa V enetia -ti son l'ec!ro Rcl-- v< ~01:\'3-(\ Sunny o~.,~ Dr Sc hool (Vaca nt Srtel 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 257 Figure 3.124: Marin Levee 33, Marin County Levees 33 and 24 and the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Levee in St. Vincent Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ SamtV111:.-nfs Equao::.trien 5:lmt Vinc.enfs Prcgram School For Boys ~' Vincents-Dr R:lman G.:itholtc . ..-. Gallinas 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 258 Figure 3.125: Santa Venetia Levee System Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Legend • Mil itary and Civ il Defense Installations Communication Facilities Electric Power Facil ities Wastewater Facilities -Airports Emergency Operations Centers Santa Venetia Levee Fire Stations Hospitals and Med ical Facilities Police / Sheriff Stations Schoo ls Levee Centerline Levee Inundation e Da ETJ/111 DIIICtOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT / Woody Baker-Cohn Mari nCounty.org 19/23 ~ N 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 259 Several levee systems exist around Bel Marin Keys and the Black Point area, but their failure does not present a risk to the communities. Figure 3.126: Bel Marin Keys Levee System Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ llt Marin Country Military and Civil Defense Installations Electric Power Facilities Emergency Operations Centers Fire Stations County of Marin, california State Parks, Esr i, Bel Ma ri n Keys Levee Hamlllon Recreation Facility Hospitals and Medical Facilities Police / Sheriff Stations Schools Levee Center line -Levee Inundation ' \ \ \ omc101 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ~ N Ma nag ement, EPA, N PS, USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 260 Two levee systems are located around the Marin County Airport. The State Fish and Game Levee surrounds the Airport property and neighboring wetlands on three sides to the north, south, and east. The Gnoss Airport Levee consists of two sections that intersect the airport property. One section is 2.59 miles long with an undocumented height and the other section is 0.43 miles long with an undocumented height. Figure 3.127 shows the levee systems around the Marin County Airport. Figure 3.127: Levees Around the Marin County Airport Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Rush Creek Rush Vale) r.\3morial Park 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 261 Figure 3.128: Novato North Levee System Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Olompoh SI.al& Historic Park Legend e Dams Communication Facilities Airports Hospitals and Medical Facilities Levee Centerline -Levee Inundation Novato North Levee ty.org OlllCIOf EMERGENCY MllNAGEMENT ,;,• 0 nd Man<19.t, EPA , NPS, USDA " 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 262 In 1982 a levee in Santa Venetia was breached by tidal elevations and flooded the neighborhood with 2-3 feet of water. Over a million dollars-worth of levee damage on Novato Creek occurred in 2014 and 2017 and a heavy burden on stormwater pumping systems caused additional damage to pumping system components. Over a million dollars-worth of levee damage on Novato Creek occurred in 2014 and 2017 and a heavy burden on stormwater pumping systems caused additional damage to pumping system components. Impacts Levee failure flooding would vary depending on which structure fails and the nature and extent of the failure and associated flooding. This flooding presents a threat to life and property, including buildings, their contents, and their use. Large flood events can affect lifeline utilities (e.g., water, sewerage, and power), transportation, jobs, tourism, the environment, agricultural industry, and the local and regional economies. The overall impact to the community from levee breach or failure includes: • Injury and loss of life; • Commercial and residential structural damage; • Disruption of and damage to public infrastructure; • Health hazards associated with mold and mildew; • Damage to roads/bridges resulting in loss of mobility; • Significant economic impact (jobs, sales, tax revenue) to the community; • Negative impact on commercial and residential property values; • Long dewatering periods; • Significant disruption to students and teachers as temporary facilities and relocations would likely be needed. • Extent and Probability The probability of future levee failures in the Marin County OA is largely unknown but may result from a large winter storm or seismic event. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 263 Table 3.14: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Levee Failure Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Unlikely Negligible Moderate Medium High 9.00 City of Belvedere Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 Town of Corte Madera Unlikely Limited Severe High Medium 11.00 Town of Fairfax None None None None None 0.00 City of Larkspur Unlikely Negligible Moderate Medium Low 7.00 City of Mill Valley None None None None None 0.00 City of Novato Occasional Negligible Weak Medium Low 7.00 Town of Ross None None None None None 0.00 Town of San Anselmo None None None None None 0.00 City of San Rafael Unlikely Significant Severe High High 13.00 City of Sausalito Occasional Negligible Weak Low Low 6.00 Town of Tiburon Unlikely Negligible None None High 5.00 Bolinas Public Utility District Unlikely Limited Extreme High Medium 12.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Unlikely Significant Severe High High 13.00 North Marin Water District Unlikely Significant Extreme High Medium 13.00 Southern Marin Fire District None None None None None 0.00 Table 3.14: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Levee Failure Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 264 Vulnerability The areas of the Marin County OA most vulnerable to levee failure are those with levees that could fail. Several unincorporated communities in Marin County are susceptible to levee failure: A small area of Tamalpais Valley is protected from the Coyote Creek Levees (COYL) and could be susceptible to a levee failure. This area includes dozens of homes along with several commercial buildings and a section of Highway 1. Approximately 206 people and 105 buildings are at risk from a failure of the COYL levee, with a property value risk of around $59.4 million. Approximately 557 people and 265 buildings are at risk from the levee on the southern bank of Coyote Creek, with a property value risk of around $156 million. The risk is considered to be low LSAC 4 (Levee Safety Action Classification) for both levees prior to overtopping and overtopping breach scenarios. The levee has an overtopping recurrence of 1/100 USACE with low life safety risk. Seepage has not been documented since the construction of a seepage barrier in 2005 (the levee was loaded 75% in 2008). Some uncertainty exists in the condition of culvert penetrations. Areas of oversteepened slope and erosion at the waterside levee toe are also moderate concerns. No loss of life is anticipated, and economic damages are anticipated to be low. Two small areas of Strawberry are protected by levees and could be susceptible to levee failure. The area protected by the Seminary Marsh Levee consists of several businesses adjacent to Highway 101. Approximately 325 people and 13 buildings are at risk from a failure of the Seminary Marsh Levee, with a property value risk of $20.9 million. The area protected by the Strawberry Marsh Levee consists of several homes and Strawberry Elementary School. Approximately 488 people and 36 buildings are at risk from a failure of the Strawberry Marsh Levee, with a property value risk of around $17.2 million. Part of the southern end of Kentfield is protected from Corte Madera Creek by the Corte Madera Creek Left Bank Levee and could be susceptible to a levee failure. This area includes a few dozen homes and the Marin General Hospital. Approximately 260 people and 104 buildings are at risk from a failure of the Corte Madera Creek Left Bank Levee, with a property value risk of around $40.3 million. The Levee was assessed in 2021 and the risk was determined to be low. Numerous homes along with San Pedro Point Road and the McNears Brickyard are susceptible to a failure of the McNears sea wall. Approximately 604 people and 242 buildings in the unincorporated area and the City of San Rafael are at risk from a failure of the sea wall, with a total property value risk of around $169 million. Part of the northern area of Santa Venetia is protected from the South Fork of Galinas Creek by the Santa Venetia Levee. There are several hundred homes in this area along with numerous pump stations and several medical facilities that could be susceptible to a levee failure. Approximately 1,901 people and 676 buildings are at risk from a failure of the Santa Venetia Levee, with a property value risk of around $323 million. The area of St. Vincent, which includes the St. Vincent School and the Las Galinas Valley Treatment Plant, is protected from Miller Creek and San Pablo Bay from Marin County Levee 33, Marin County Levee 24 and the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Levee and could be susceptible to a levee failure. Approximately 8 buildings are at risk from a failure of both Marin County Levee 33 and Marin County Levee 24. Approximately 19 people and 9 buildings are at l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 265 risk from a failure of the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District levee, with a property value risk of around $9.47 million. The Marin County Airport is protected by the State Fish and Game Levee and the Gnoss Levees, and airport facilities along with the access road could be susceptible to a levee failure. The qualitative risk of the levees around the Airport is unknown. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of major storm events, which can place added strain on levee systems. An increase in rainfall and runoff as a result of climate change will increase the potential for higher water levels in leveed areas across the Marin County OA, increasing the potential for a levee failure. Rising seas will lead to increased stress on the levees around the Marin County OA shoreline, particular during a major tidal event and potential tsunami. As development increases in the populated areas of the Marin County OA protected by its levees, particularly in coastal areas, the potential for significant impacts to residents and infrastructure will only increase. 3.3.8 SEA LEVEL RISE Climate change is the distinct change in measures of weather patterns over a long period of time, ranging from decades to millions of years. More specifically, it may be a change in average weather conditions such as temperature, rainfall, snow, ocean and atmospheric circulation, or in the distribution of weather around the average. While the Earth’s climate has cycled over its 4.5-billion-year age, these natural cycles have taken place gradually over millennia, and the Holocene, the most recent epoch in which human civilization developed, has been characterized by a highly stable climate until recently. The Marin County OA MJHMP is concerned with human-induced climate change that has been rapidly warming the Earth at rates unprecedented in the last 1,000 years. Since industrialization began, the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) at escalating quantities has released vast amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases responsible for trapping heat in the atmosphere, increasing the average temperature of the Earth. Secondary impacts include changes in precipitation patterns, the global water cycle, melting glaciers and ice caps, and rising sea levels. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change will “increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems” if unchecked. Through changes to oceanic and atmospheric circulation cycles and increasing heat, climate change affects weather systems around the world. Climate change increases the likelihood and exacerbates the severity of extreme weather – more frequent or intense storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves. Consequences for human society include loss of life and injury, damaged infrastructure, long-term health effects, loss of agricultural crops, disrupted transport and freight, and more. Climate change is not a discrete event but a long-term hazard, the effects of which communities are already experiencing. Climate change adaptation is a key priority of the State of California. The 2013 State of California Multi- Hazard Mitigation Plan stated that climate change is already affecting California. The State has also seen increased average temperatures, more extreme hot days, l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 266 fewer cold nights, a lengthening of the growing season, shifts in the water cycle with less winter precipitation falling as snow, and earlier runoff of both snowmelt and rainwater in the year. In addition to changes in average temperatures, sea level, and precipitation patterns, the intensity of extreme weather events is also changing. Rising sea levels are considered a secondary effect of climate change due to warming ocean temperatures and melting glacial ice sheets into the ocean. The California coast has already seen a rise in sea level of four to eight inches over the 20th century due to climate change. Sea level rise impacts can be exacerbated during coastal storms, which often bring increased tidal elevations called “storm surge.” The large waves associated with such storm surges can cause flooding in low-lying areas, erosion of coastal wetlands, saltwater contamination of drinking water, disruption of septic system operations, impacts on roads and bridges, and increased stress on levees. In addition, rising sea levels result in coastal erosion as shoreline sediment is re-deposited back into the ocean. Evidence shows that winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since 1948 in the North Pacific, increasing regional wave heights and water levels during storm events. According to the 2017 “Rising Seas in California, An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science” report Marin County may experience impacts from Sea Level Rise over defined periods of time, to include long-term changes (second half of this century and beyond), and short- to mid -term projections (within the next two or three decades). l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 267 Figure 3.129: Marin County Sea Level Rise Susceptibility to Critical Facilities Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ OlllC(Of Marin County EMERGENCY Sea Level Rise MANAGEMENT _,~ ... -\. -_,,J- '-"' • Legend • Dam s Emergency Operations Military and Ovil Centers • Defense Installations Fire Stations Communication Hospitals and Med ica l Facilities Faci li ties Electric Power Fac ilities Police / Sheriff Stations Wastewater Facilities Schoo ls • Water Supply F<1cilities Sea Level Rise Airports 1 ft Sea Level Rise 5 ft Sea Level Rise • • • • IOI 116 ------,_ • • • • 0 J0---. .. -r- ---==~---■Miles 2 .5 5 Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn ema il: OEM _GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Pri nted : 11/01/23 JI County of Mar in, Californ ia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SilfeGraph, Geo Technologies, Inc , MEll/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA, Cou nty of Marin, C...lifomia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, S...feGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Burwu of Land Management, EPA, NPS 1"1 12 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 268 Location and Previous Occurrences Past flooding, wildfire, levee failure, and drought disasters have been exacerbated by climate change in frequency of occurrence and intensity. Unlike earthquakes and floods that occur over a finite time period, climate change may be experienced as a compounding, long term hazard, the effects of which some communities may already be experiencing. The 2018 State of California Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan states that climate change is already affecting California. Sea levels have risen by as much as seven inches along the California coast over the last century, increasing erosion and pressure on the state’s infrastructure, water supplies, and natural resources. The State has also seen increased average temperatures, more extreme hot days, fewer cold nights, a lengthening of the growing season, shifts in the water cycle with less winter precipitation falling as snow, and both snowmelt and rainwater running off sooner in the year. In addition to changes in average temperatures, sea level, and precipitation patterns, the intensity of extreme weather events is also changing. This data suggests that the effects of climate change have been occurring in the Marin County area. See Figure 3.130 for the historic and future change in average July temperatures across California. Figure 3.130: Average July Temperatures in California Source: California Climate Adaptation Strategy 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 42 1961 -90 2035-64 2070-99 40 38 36 34 236' 236 ' 244 ' 236" 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 .. F Source: Dan Cayan et al 2009 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 269 Impacts During the next few decades, scenarios project average temperature to rise between 1°F and 2.3°F in California. As such, temperatures across the Marin County OA, including in the unincorporated area, would be expected to rise, leading to increase in drought conditions that could lead to forest devastation and wildfires, and an increase in major flooding and associated debris flow events. These extreme weather events can cause additional injuries and fatalities and can cause worsened damage or destruction to homes and critical facilities and infrastructure across the County. Socioeconomic disruption can also occur across the County as a result of climate change. Dealing with flooding from rain and upstream runoff is already complicated. Sea level rise will make it even more complicated by increasing the frequency and duration of flooding. When water temperature increases, warm water expands and takes up more space than colder water. As the planet warms, the water in the ocean warms, expands, and elevates sea levels. The changing climate has also melted parts of the ice caps at the North and South Poles. As this ice melts and flows into the ocean, it increases the amount of water in the ocean and raises sea levels even more. Sea levels in San Francisco Bay have risen seven inches over the past century. Predictions of future sea level rise vary from 12 inches by 2030 to 60 inches by 2100. The Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) recommends using 36 inches of sea level rise for planning purposes. Rising sea levels increase the upstream extent of tidal flooding, worsen creek overflow due to backwater effects of elevated high tides, and create larger, stronger waves which erode the shoreline and destroy sensitive marshes. Coastal flooding will have a large impact on cities and habitat. A 36 -inch increase in sea levels will greatly impact people’s lives throughout the Marin County OA, including in the unincorporated area. Daily high tides will inundate major thoroughfares, schools, retirement communities, private homes, shopping areas, bike paths, and stormwater detention ponds. Valuable marsh and mudflat habitat will be permanently flooded. Infrastructure will need to be armored, abandoned, or relocated. Shorelines will be eroded by increased wave erosion, threatening even more infrastructure. With sea level rise it is projected that more land along Marin’s coastline and bayside will be permanently inundated or subject to more regular flooding, while the frequency and intensity of storm events are anticipated to increase with climate change. Greater riparian flooding may also occur with sea level rise and future storm events, though modeling is necessary to better understand the extent of such hazards. As previously discussed best available sea level rise and future flood models indicate that by 2100 around 7,000 acres, 9,000 parcels, 10,000 buildings and 120 miles of roads throughout Marin County may be exposed to flooding due to future sea level rise and 100-year storm events. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 270 Extent and Probability Table 3.15: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment - Sea Level Rise Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Highly Likely Limited Extreme High High 16.00 City of Belvedere Highly Likely Limited Extreme High High 16.00 Town of Corte Madera Occasional Significant Weak High Medium 11.00 Town of Fairfax None None None None None 0.00 City of Larkspur Highly Likely Limited Extreme High High 16.00 City of Mill Valley Highly Likely Limited Weak High Medium 12.00 City of Novato Occasional Limited Moderate High Medium 11.00 Town of Ross None None None None None 0.00 Town of San Anselmo None None None None None 0.00 City of San Rafael Highly Likely Significant Moderate High High 15.00 City of Sausalito Likely Significant Severe High Medium 14.00 Town of Tiburon Highly Likely Limited Extreme High High 16.00 Bolinas Public Utility District Likely Extensive Severe High High 18.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Likely Significant Moderate High High 14.00 North Marin Water District Occasional Significant Moderate High Medium 12.00 Southern Marin Fire District Likely Significant Extreme Medium Low 13.00 Table 3.15: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment - Sea Level Rise Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 271 Vulnerability All residents in the Marin County OA, including in the unincorporated area, are susceptible to climate change, with effects being more prevalent in those with pre-existing health conditions and the elderly. Communities most vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in unincorporated Marin County include Muir Beach, Stinson Beach, Bolinas, Inverness, Pt. Reyes Station, East Shore, and Dillon Beach. Coping with a changing climate presents opportunities for local health departments and partners in Marin County to consider policies, actions, and infrastructure design that will not just protect the public from climate change threats, but also establish health equity, resiliency, and sustainability. A critical step for building resilience is to improve capacity of communities to prepare, respond, and recover from climate-related health risks. The most vulnerable assets in Marin County OA’s unincorporated communities in the near-term are Shoreline Highway through Almonte, Waldo Point Harbor houseboats and facilities, Greenbrae homes and facilities, and Paradise Cay homes and marina. The elevated homes on Greenbrae Boardwalk and floating homes in Waldo Point Harbor may be more adaptable in the near term than homes with solid foundations. In the medium-term, portions of Bel Marin Keys could face impacts, as would Santa Venetia homes, Tamalpais Valley homes, and the Greenwood Cove, Strawberry Circle, Strawberry Village Shopping Center, homes along Seminary Drive in Strawberry, and Kentfield creek side homes. In the long-term, Black Point and North Novato could anticipate damaging impacts. In the medium-term timeframe, regular high tide tidal flooding could adversely impact the same locations tidally flooded in the near- term, though more severely. Storm surge flooding could be 10 inches with a 100-year storm surge, and extend further inland beyond the marshy areas of Mill Valley, Strawberry, San Rafael, St. Vincent’s, and North Novato. In the long-term (second half of this century and beyond), regular tidal flooding could adversely impact the same locations impacted in the near- and medium -terms (within the next two or three decades) and significant portions of what would have previously only flooded from the 100-year storm surge. The additional areas that would tidally flood at 60 inches of sea level rise are: • Tamalpais Valley • Mill Valley from the Richardson’s Bay shoreline up to and beyond Camino Alto between Miller and East Blithedale Avenues • Mill Valley and Strawberry fronting US Highway 101 between Seminary Drive and Tiburon Boulevard • Santa Venetia north of N. San Pedro Boulevard • Cove Neighborhood, Tiburon • Belvedere Lagoon neighborhood • Paradise Cay • Mariner Cove, Marina Village, Madera Gardens, and major retail centers lining US Highway 101 • Riviera Circle, Creekside, and Heatherwood neighborhoods, Larkspur • Interstate 580 and westward towards Andersen Drive in San Rafael and the community of California Park • Marin Lagoon and Peacock Gap neighborhoods, San Rafael • Bel Marin Keys northern and southern lagoon areas l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 272 • Hamilton, Vintage Oaks, and pockets of development east of US Highway 101 at Rowland Boulevard and State Route 37 in Novato, and • North Novato at US Highway 101 and Binford Road. Bayside areas that could anticipate increased storm surge flooding are: • Sausalito west of Bridgeway • Marin City neighborhood • Mill Valley east of East Blithedale Avenue at Alto Shopping Center • Las Gallinas and North San Pedro Boulevard, east of US Highway 101, San Rafael • Bayside Acres • Country Club • Kentfield In their current conditions, the most vulnerable coastal Marin County OA infrastructure, in order of onset and flood depth, includes Near term (ten years): • Beaches, underground on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), buildings, and streets in Stinson Beach west of Shoreline Highway • Shoreline Highway between Stinson Beach and Bolinas, at Green Bridge over Lagunitas Creek in Pt. Reyes Station, the Walker Creek crossing in Marshall, and bridges on Middle Road and Valley Ford Lincoln School Road • Beaches and beach front and downtown buildings and streets in Bolinas • Septic systems, beaches, marshes, and buildings along the eastern and western shores of Tomales Bay • The water distribution pipe underneath Shoreline Highway and Sir Francis Drake • Boulevard serving many Inverness residents • Intertidal rocky lands in Muir Beach and Duxbury Reef in Bolinas • Fire service facilities and tsunami evacuation routes in Stinson Beach • Recreational facilities at Dillon Beach Resort and Lawson’s Landing • Blufftop buildings in Muir Beach, Bolinas, and Dillon Beach may be vulnerable to accelerated erosion Medium Term (thirty years): • Olema-Bolinas Road, which is the only road to Downtown Bolinas • Additional buildings and streets in downtown Bolinas, including the historic district • Bolinas Public Utilities District lift station at the end of Wharf Road • Shoreline Highway in Pt. Reyes Station and East Shore, and Sir Francis Drake Blvd. in Inverness • Along the east shore of Tomales Bay, homes on piers over the water are particularly vulnerable Long Term (seventy years): • Shoreline Highway along the East Shore l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 273 • Buildings in Inverness west of Sir Francis Drake Blvd • Downtown Bolinas up to Brighton Road, including the market, library, community center, gas station, museum, and other valued places Along the bay shoreline, in the near-term timeframe, tidal flooding at 10 inches of sea level rise could reach 5,000 acres, 1,300 parcels, and 700 buildings, potentially impacting tens of thousands of residents, employees, and visitors. With an additional 100 -year storm surge, the previously impacted acres, parcels, and buildings could face tidal and storm surge flooding. An additional 3,000 acres, 2,500 parcels, and 3,800 buildings could anticipate storm surge flooding across the Marin County OA. Eight miles of road could expect tidal flooding. Smaller public and private and marinas and boat launches along the bay in Strawberry, Bel Marin Keys, and Black Point could be flooded out and unusable. Storm surges can be powerful enough to damage and sink boats, including those belonging to the Southern Marin Fire Protection. Most concerning, however, is the potential inability of emergency professionals and vehicles to access people in or through flooded areas. In this medium-term timeframe, tidal flooding at 20 inches of sea level rise could reach nearly 7,000 acres, 3,000 parcels, and 2,000 buildings in the Marin County OA, potentially impacting even more residents, employees, and visitors than in the near-term . With an additional 100-year storm surge, the previously impacted acres, parcels, and buildings could face tidal and storm surge flooding, and an additional 7,000 acres, 2,200 parcels, and 3,600 buildings in the Marin County OA could anticipate storm surge flooding. Most levees south of Novato are not designed to withstand this level of flooding and could be overtopped. Eighteen miles of roadway, ten more miles than in the near-term, could expect tidal flooding. Many of the impacted roads are the same as those impacted in the near-term, though much greater lengths could anticipate tidal flooding and flooding depths would increase. Storm surge flooding could reach a total of 44 additional miles of roadway. Water travel could experience similar outcomes as in the near-term, though the highest high tides and storms surges would cause even more damage than weathered twenty years earlier. Pipelines under vulnerable roads, and lateral pipes to vulnerable properties, would become squeezed between rising groundwater and the confining roadway. This could cause pipes to bend and break and could even damage roadways. In the medium-term, impacts to the North Marin Water District service area would impact water service in Bel Marin Keys and unincorporated area around Novato. Vulnerable substations, electrical transmission towers and lines, and underground natural gas pipelines along the shoreline would be compromised by flooding and subsidence. Disruptions or failures in this network could also have far reaching impacts in transportation, sanitary service, stormwater management facilities, food storage, communications, and general public safety. In the long-term timeframe, tidal flooding at 60 inches of sea level rise could reach nearly 7,000 acres, 8,000 parcels, and 9,000 buildings in the Marin County OA, potentially impacting hundreds of thousands of residents, employees, and visitors. In the long-term scenario, storm surge flooding could occur on nearly 13,500 acres hosting 12,600 parcels with 12,000 buildings in the Marin County OA, potentially impacting 200,000 residents, thousands of employees, and several million visitors. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 274 One-hundred miles of public and private roadways in the Marin County OA could be vulnerable to tidal exposure. Roads could degrade more quickly, or if flood waters are deep enough, become impassable. Lane miles could be more than double this figure. An additional 30 miles of roadway could be vulnerable at 60 inches of sea level rise and a 100-year storm surge. Moreover, several park and rides, several hundred bus stops, and bus transit and SMART rail routes could flood. Breakdowns in the transportation network would have major impacts on the economy and daily life functions. In addition, significant safety hazards could cause injury or loss of life. Flooding at the Sewerage Agency of Southern Marin (SASM) and Novato Sanitary Wastewater Treatment Plants is a significant vulnerability that could arise, potentially disrupting hundreds of thousands of people. By this time, much of the low-lying shoreline sanitary sewer and stormwater infrastructure could be flooded out. By the end of the century, sea level rise could have direct impacts to the Novato Atherton Avenue Fire Station. A few emergency shelters in Southern Marin communities could be vulnerable to tidal flooding, and several more could expect storm surge flooding and may not be available when needed most. Beaches, estuaries, marshes, wetlands, and intertidal areas on the Marin County OA coast, including in the unincorporated area, are vulnerable to sea level rise and storms. Nearly all beaches except Dillon Beach and the federal portion of Stinson Beach, could be lost entirely in the long-term. Roughly 9,000 acres in the estuaries of Tomales Bay, Bolinas Lagoon, and Esteros Americano and San Antonio, 1,800 acres of wetlands and marshlands could be impacted to varying degrees across all of the scenarios in all of the communities. Sea level rise may push coastal habitats inland where possible, flooding tidal areas more frequently and inundating new inland areas with saltwater. The North Central California Coast and Ocean Vulnerability Assessment identified the five most vulnerable species to sea level rise as the Western snowy plover, black oystercatcher, black rail, California mussel, and red abalone. On the bayside, the marshlands that buffer the shoreline communities from high tides and storm surges could begin to experience transitions in habitat, especially those in the Southern Marin County OA where they are typically bordered by urban development. Consequently, the waters here would get deeper and flood out the existing habitat, shifting high marsh to low marsh, low marsh to mud flat, and mud flats to open water. Without adequate light of shallow water, eelgrass beds would shrink. Collectively, these habitat shifts could have significant impacts on vulnerable species such as the salt marsh harvest mouse, Ridgway’s Rail, or the long-fin smelt. A twenty-inch increase in sea level in the medium-term would continue to shrink the Southern Marin County OA, Tiburon Peninsula, and Pt. San Pedro marsh and tidal habitats. Southern Marin County OA marshes may no longer exist by the end of the century, destroying the habitat of several shoreline birds and mammals. Northern Marin marshes would become increasingly tidally influenced, with tide water reaching US Highway 101 in Bel Marin Keys and North Novato up the Petaluma River. Typically freshwater marshes west of US Highway 101, for example, Sutton Marsh, could also expect damaging salinity impacts. Tidal marsh lands may increase in Northern Marin if they are not prevented from migrating inland. Approximately 1,358 acres on 30 agricultural parcels could be vulnerable to sea level rise and storm conditions. Another 3,000 acres are public agency lands near Bel Marin Keys, Hamilton Field, and the Novato Sanitary District that are leased for agricultural use. Higher high tides could push brackish conditions inland, reducing grazing, manure spreading, and cultivation area. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 275 Loss of or compromised emergency services could be more devastating to communities with higher populations that fall into certain demographic categories. Communities with higher populations that fall into these categories include Marin City and the canal neighborhoods in the unincorporated area around the City of San Rafael. Marin County OA populations that are most vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise include: • Low-income households • Households in poverty Climate Change and Future Development Considerations The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion of warming oceans and the melting of land-based glaciers and polar ice caps. Climate change is affecting natural and built systems around the world, including the California coast. In the past century, average global temperature has increased about 1.4°F, and average global sea level has increased 7 to 8 inches. Sea level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area is projected to increase by eight inches MHW in 2050 and could reach 4.5 to eight feet by 2021 if greenhouse gas emissions aren’t reduced4. Figure 3.131: Projections of Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area, 2000-2100 Source: 2019–2020 Marin County Civil Grand Jury, Climate Change: How Will Marin Adapt? While the Marin County OA shoreline already experiences regular erosion, flooding, and significant storm events, sea level rise will exacerbate these natural processes, leading to significant social, environmental, and economic impacts. The third National Climate Assessment cites strong evidence that the cost of doing nothing exceeds the costs associated with adapting to sea level rise by 4 to 10 times. Sea level rise will continue to affect the Marin County OA with increased tidal flooding and storm surge during severe weather events, and future along the Marin County OA shoreline will only amplify these impacts. Sea level can also lead to increased land subsidence and the potential of levee failure. The impacts of a tsunami would also be magnified with rising seas. Future development in the coastal areas of Marin County will put more people and property at risk from flooding as a result of sea level rise. Roads and utility infrastructure across the Marin County OA will continue to become inundated. 4 2017 Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment. https://www.marincounty.org/- /media/files/departments/cd/planning/slr/baywave/vulnerability-assessment- final/final_allpages_bvbconsulting_reduced.pdf?la=en l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ Sea-Level Rise if Greenhouse Gas Emissions Remain High 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 (Year) Sea-Level Rise if Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Moderated 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 (Year) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 276 3.3.9 SEVERE WEATHER – EXTREME HEAT Extreme heat is defined as temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks. A heat wave is an extended period of extreme heat, often with high humidity. When relative humidity is factored in, the temperature can feel much hotter as reflected in the Heat Index (see Figure 3.132): Figure 3.132: Heat Index Source: NOAA Heat kills by taxing the human body beyond its abilities. In a normal year, about 1,300 Americans succumb to the demands of summer heat. Heat is the leading weather-related cause of mortalities in the US. In 2006, California reported a high of 204 heat related deaths, with 98 reported in 2017 and 93 deaths reported in 2018. Location and Previous Occurrences Extreme heat has the potential to impact all areas of the Marin County OA, though more predominantly in the lower elevations further away from the coast. In the unincorporated area this includes the Tamalpais Valley, Kentwood, Lucas Valley-Marinwood and Santa Venetia areas. Communities along the Pacific Ocean and Tomales Bay including Muir Beach, Stinson Beach, Bolinas, Inverness and Point Reyes Station tend to have cooler temperatures due to the ocean and bay breezes. In the 40-year period from 1936 through 1975, nearly 20,000 people were killed in the United States by the effects of heat and solar radiation. In the heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died. According to the 2018 California State Hazard Mitigation Plan, the worst single heat wave event in California occurred in Southern California in 1955, when an eight-day heat wave resulted in 946 deaths. Impacts Heat waves do not strike victims immediately, but rather their cumulative effects slowly take the lives of vulnerable populations. Heat waves do not cause damage or elicit the immediate 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ NOAA's National Weather Service Heat lnd·ex Temper atu re (OF) 80 82 84 86 88 90 94 40 80 81 83 85 88 91 9 45 80 82 84 87 89 93 1 l 50 81 83 85 88 91 95 ~ 55 81 84 86 89 93 97 1 -0 60 82 84 88 91 95 100 .E 65 82 8E, 89 93 98 103 :::i :c 70 83 86 90 95 100 00 a, 75 84 88 92 97 10$ 109' ::,, :g 80 84 89 94 100 ., G) 85 85 90 96 Cl:'. 90 86 91 98 95 86 93 100 100 87 95 103 1 Lik elihood ol Heat O is ord ers w ith Prol onged E x1rns ure o r Str euou s Ac t ivity O c .. ution 0 E;,.1 re me c .. 1.11 ,on Oa nger ■ Eict reme Ooing er 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 277 response of floods, fires, earthquakes, or other more “typical” disaster scenarios. While heat waves are obviously less dramatic, they are potentially more deadly. Heat emergencies are often slower to develop, taking several days of continuous, oppressive heat before a significant or quantifiable impact is seen. Heat waves do not strike victims immediately, but rather their cumulative effects slowly take the lives of vulnerable populations. Sickness can occur if someone has been in extreme heat for too long, or has over-exercised for his or her age or physical condition. Extreme heat can be more dangerous for older people, the very young, and people who are sick or overweight. See Figure 3.133 for a description of possible heat disorders by heat index level. Figure 3.133: Heat Disorders by Heat Index Level Source: National Weather Service (NWS) Rural buildings without electricity, some mobile homes, or older homes that have not been retrofitted for AC, can become susceptible to extreme heat effects. The OA may open cooling centers as a result of heat or prolonged period of hot temperatures. When combined with low humidity, extreme heat can contribute to the start and spread of wildfires. The NWS will issue a Heat Advisory, Watch, or Warning when the Heat Index is expected to have a significant impact on public safety. The expected severity of the heat determines whether advisories or warnings are issued. A common guideline for the issuance of excessive heat alerts is when the maximum daytime high is expected to equal or exceed 105°F and a nighttime minimum high of 80°F or above is expected for two or more consecutive days. The NWS office in Sacramento can issue the following heat-related advisory as conditions warrant. Heat Advisory means that temperatures of at least 100°F or Heat Index values of at least 105°F are expected. Consider postponing or rescheduling any strenuous outdoor activities. If you must be outside, be sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade. The young and elderly and those with medical conditions should use extra caution outdoors. Excessive Heat Watch means that Heat Index values are expected to reach or exceed 110°F and not fall below 75°F for at least a 48 hour period. Plan to suspend all major daytime outdoor activities if a warning is issued. If you do not have air conditioning, locate the nearest cooling shelter or discuss staying with nearby family or friends who have A/C. Excessive Heat Warning means that Heat Index values are expected to reach or exceed 110°F and not fall below 75°F for at least a 48-hour period, beginning in the next 24 hours. A warning may also be issued for extended periods with afternoon heat index values of 105°F-110°F. Refrain from outdoor activities of any nature during the warmest time of the day. Drink plenty of water and 1 ~<;>U·N· TY O F a ~ARIN ~ Heat • a : I .. 130°F or Extreme higher Danger 105°-Danger 129° F goo-Extreme 105° F Caution 80° -90°F Caution I Possible heat disorders for people in high risk groups Heatstroke risk extremely high with continued exposure. Sunstroke, Heat Cramps and Heat Exhaustion likely, Heatstroke possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. Sunstroke, Heat Cramps and Heat Exhaustion possible w ith prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 278 take frequent breaks if you must be outside. Stay indoors in an air-conditioned building as much as possible. Check on elderly family members if they are living alone. Extent and Probability The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events and heat waves are expected to rise as a result of climate change, with an increased number of extreme heat days and nights, increased temperatures over extreme heat days and greater duration of extreme heat events. By the end of the century, most of the region will average six heat waves a year, with the average longest heat wave lasting ten days. Extreme heat events will also extend seasonally into spring and fall. Table 3.16: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Severe Weather, Extreme Heat Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 City of Belvedere Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 Town of Corte Madera Likely Extensive Weak Medium Low 11.00 Town of Fairfax Unlikely Significant Weak Medium Low 8.00 City of Larkspur Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 14.00 City of Mill Valley Likely Extensive Moderate Medium Medium 13.00 City of Novato Likely Extensive Weak Medium Medium 12.00 Town of Ross Likely Significant Moderate Medium Medium 12.00 Town of San Anselmo Likely Extensive Extreme High High 17.00 City of San Rafael Likely Extensive Moderate High Low 13.00 City of Sausalito Unlikely Negligible Weak Low Low 5.00 Town of Tiburon Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 Bolinas Public Utility District Unlikely Extensive Weak Low Low 8.00 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 279 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Highly Likely Negligible Weak High Low 10.00 North Marin Water District Likely Extensive Weak Medium Medium 12.00 Southern Marin Fire District Likely Significant Moderate High High 14.00 Table 3.16: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Severe Weather, Extreme Heat Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts Vulnerability Extreme heat can affect a range of key infrastructure from energy systems, water and wastewater treatment systems, the operation of government buildings, and public transit. While higher summer temperatures increase electricity demand for cooling, at the same time, they also can lower the ability of transmission lines to carry power, possibly leading to electricity reliability issues during heat waves. Increased temperatures also impact the efficiency of solar power infrastructure by increasing the surface temperature of solar panels, which reduces the voltage that panels can generate and thereby lowers efficiency. Although warmer winters will reduce the need for heating, modeling suggests that total U.S. energy use will increase in a warmer future. Extreme heat can also increase the risk of other types of disasters and exacerbate the urban heat island effect. Heat can exacerbate drought, and hot dry conditions can in turn create wildfire conditions. In cities, buildings, roads and infrastructure can be heated to 50 to 90 degrees hotter than the air while natural surfaces remain closer to air temperatures. The heat island effect is most intense during the day, but the slow release of heat from the infrastructure overnight (or an atmospheric heat island) can keep cities much hotter than surrounding areas. People who are required to work outside during extreme heat are especially vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat. In California , between 2000-2017, 15,996 workers experienced heat related illness (Risk factors for occupational heat-related illness among California workers, 2000-2017 - PubMed (nih.gov). Animals, including livestock, poultry, and domestic pets are susceptible to extreme heat. For example, dogs and cats are in danger of heat stroke in temperatures of 110°F. The heat wave of 2006 resulted in more than 25,000 cattle, 700,000 fowl, and 15 reported heat-related pet deaths in California. Heat wave impacts on livestock and poultry can lead to financial losses in agriculture. High temperature can be felt throughout the Marin County OA, though the lower elevations of the County are more vulnerable to higher temperatures than the higher elevations. People who live in the more urban areas of the County can be at greater risk to heat because concrete and asphalt store heat for longer and release it throughout the night. High temperatures can cause brownouts and increase the susceptibility of people to the effects of heat. Though crops in the Marin County OA are adaptable to heat, they can become vulnerable to prolonged periods of high temperatures. Northern Marin County (roughly north of Point Reyes, Nicasio, and Lucas Valley-Marinwood to the northern County line) is likely to see greater increases in annual average maximum temperatures due to climate change at a faster rate than southern portions of the County. While l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 280 climate change induced extreme heat events will impact County residents in the future, extreme heat effects will be less severe in the County relative to other areas of the state, including the Central Valley, that already experience higher temperatures and more extreme heat events. In terms of overall level of impact to County residents and infrastructure, extreme heat due to climate change will be less of a concern compared to flooding, sea level rise, wildfire, and landslides, debris flows, and post-fire debris flows in most cases. However, extreme heat will have a relatively greater impact on certain populations. Marin County OA populations most vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat include: • Low-income households • Households in poverty • Persons without access to transportation or telecommunications • Low-resources racial or ethnic minorities • Outdoor workers • Healthcare workers, first responders, and protective service occupations • Houseless population • Children • Persons with disabilities • Persons with chronic health problems • Senior community members In extreme temperatures, air quality is also affected. Hot and sunny days can increase ozone levels, which in turn affects Nitrogen Oxides Control levels. In addition, greater use of heating and cooling of indoor spaces requires more electricity and, depending on the electricity source, can emit more of other types of pollution, including particulates. These increases in ozone and particulate matter can pose serious risks to people, particularly the same vulnerable groups directly impacted by heat mentioned above. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations The primary effect of climate change is warmer average temperatures. The annual average daily high temperatures in California are expected to rise by 2.7°F by 2040, 5.8°F by 2070, and 8.8°F by 2100 compared to observed and modeled historical conditions5. At the current rate, annual average temperatures in the Marin County region and Bay Area will likely increase by approximately 4.4 degrees by 2050 and 7.2 degree by the end of the century unless significant efforts are made to reduce greenhouse emotions according to California’s latest climate change assessment. 5 California Adaptation Planning Guide l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 281 Figure 3.134: Annual Average Temperatures in the San Francisco Bay Area, 2000-2100 Source: California Climate Change Assessment (Fourth Edition) As climate change accelerates in the 21st century, it is anticipated that extreme heat events will become more frequent and intense across the Marin County OA. There will be increased residential and business needs for cooling and addressing heat-related issues. Heat waves also tax the energy grid. Future development in the Marin County OA could exacerbate the impacts from heat related events, particularly in electricity provision and water delivery. Increased temperatures will also lead to an increase in the occurrence and severity of wildfires across the Marin County OA as conditions become hotter and drier. Future development near the many open spaces around Marin Couty could expose more people and infrastructure to the threat of a major wildfire as a result of increasing temperatures. 3.3.10 SEVERE WEATHER – HIGH WIND/TORNADO High Wind High wind is defined as a one-minute average of surface winds 40 miles per hour or greater lasting for one hour or longer, or winds gusting to 58 miles per hour or greater regardless of duration that are either expected or observed over land. These winds may occur as part of a seasonal climate pattern or in relation to other severe weather events such as thunderstorms. The Beaufort scale is an empirical measure that relates wind speed to observed conditions on land and is a common measure of wind intensity (see Figure 3.135). l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ -.. 82 t QI 80 .._ ::, ~ 78 QI C. E 76 2l ;;'; 74 E ~ 72 ~ ~ 70 IO iii ::, 68 C C <t 66 a) Annual time series Historical • observed Historical -model ed range RCP4 .S average RCP8 .5 average RCP4 .S range RCP8 .5 range 1960 1980 2 0 00 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 f 82 ~ 80 ::, ~ 78 Q) C. E 76 2l ~ 74 E ~ 72 ~ ~ 70 re ro ::, 68 C C <t 66 bl Ti me period summaries Historical· observed AVG/MIN/MAX Historical· modeled AVG/M IN/MAX RCP4 .S AVG/M IN/MAX RCP8.5 AVG/M IN/MAX tt= MIN 19 7 6-2005 2006-2039 2040-2 0 69 2070-2100 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 282 Figure 3.135: Beaufort Wind Scale Source: NOAA Windstorms in the Marin County OA are typically straight-line winds. Straight-line winds are generally any thunderstorm wind that is not associated with rotation (i.e., is not a tornado). It is these winds, which can exceed 100 mph, which represent the most common type of severe weather and are responsible for most wind damage related to thunderstorms. Location and Previous Occurrences The entire Marin County OA, including the unincorporated area, is susceptible to storms and damage from wind. The coastal and mountainous areas are particularly susceptible to wind, although wind has caused damages throughout the county. High winds often occur with the onset of atmospheric river events. Figure 3.136 shows wind zones for the United States. The l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Beaufort number 0 1 2 3 4 s 6 1 8 g 10 Oesaiptlon calm Ught ai r Ugh b reeze Ge ntle b reeze Moderate breeze Fre!;h breeze 51rong breeze High wind, Moderate gale, ear gale Ga le, Fr !'!~h gale Strong ga le Storm, Whole gale Violent storm Hurr icane Wind speed Land conditions kt$ <1 1-2 3 -6 7-10 11 -lS 16-20 21-26 27 -33 m/h <1 Clllm.Smo):~ r ise-s ver lea Iv. 1-5 W i nd mo on vi sl b l~ i ns oke. 6 -ll W ind ell one posed sk i n. wves rustle. 2 -lS Lc:a~cs end sm~ll er tw i e, in conH~nt mo1 iot1 20 -28 Ous:t and loose paper rai:.ed . Sma 11 branches bee i n to move . 29-38 Branch !!S of a moder<!! e s ire mo e. Sm<!! I •~ be11ln to s ~v. 3~_49 Laree branches in motion. Vh istli n1:lm1rd in overhead wires.Umbre l la use hern me5 d i ffi cu lt. Emp~ plast.lc garbage can5 tip over. 50 _61 Wkoletree5 ln motion. Effo • ne~ed to ,,.,tk a11a l n!.t the wind. Swayln1 of skvscrapers mav be fel e:spe<la ll v by people on ul)pet oors . 61 _ 74 Some twies broken from tree:s . e&rs veer on road . Proeress on foot is serlous l y l mpedtd. Some branches break off tree:i;, and sonie sma ll rees b lowo er . 41 -47 75 -88 COn.struct l on/ empor11ry ~TiM nd l>Drr lc d~ blo "011«. D11m11ee toc l r.::u~ ten!5 and canop i es. 48-55 89 _ 1 02 rees are broken o or uprooted, sap llngs bent and de ormed. Poorly attached esphelt shl"£1ti end st11na1" in poor condi ion pee l o·f roofs. Wlde5pread vegetati on damage. a ny roo • ng surfaces are d a maged; 56 -63 103 -U7 a~pha l t tile~ that have curl ed up and/or ·,ac ure-d due o aa:e may bru away co.mp l e elv. verv wldespre.id demaee o ~eee a on. !>ome wl r,dows mav brea : mob il e l 64 l 118 homes end poor I constr1.1ct«l sh«ls end barns re de~ee<t . Debris mev be 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 283 Special Wind Region is an area of higher wind occurrence, primarily where down-slope mountain wind occurs. Figure 3.136: Wind Zones in the US Source: FEMA The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) provides a listing of all the high wind events to affect Marin County since 1950. Most high wind events occur between November and March. 12/27/2006 - One person died when gusty winds knocked a tree into a home in Lagunitas. More than 50 trees toppled in Point Reyes National Seashore, including a 150-foot Douglas fir that slammed into the picnic area at the Bear Valley Visitor Center in Olema. Winds in the National Seashore were estimated between 80-100 mph. Manaka’s Inverness Lodge burned to the ground in a fire triggered by a falling tree. 1/19/2010 - High winds brought an 18-inch diameter tree and power lines down along Lucas Valley Road about one-half mile east of Nicasio Valley Road blocking both lanes of traffic. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ ·111- ~ /21-tAW;,ti,11 + Wl:ND ZON ES lN THE UN IT.ED STAT ES*' OTHER 00.NS!DERATIO,NS ~ ,~'WlodR'l'iJ!o!li i\~-::;!3 ,., rh,mfieonc,,~p,lbl'c RcglOi;l ~ Wind S::iocd moosu rilil1,1 crtlc na ll!l'(I 1»1'1$if1C'l"!t ,to ASCE 7-98 -J,s;ccol'l(li:J~ -33 IOOt ,:llli'.M;! {lfll.d\"! -~9ll'OC WiN O ZO·NES 1:=1 z:o --e.r (130¾1 !=i ZONEII ~ (160 wl'ijll'IJ Z·OllE."1 ---(200.mptit -.:ZONl::,r\i (15(1~} 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 284 1/20/2010 - Strong winds and saturated soil combined to knock over a 50-foot Douglas fir tree along Turnagain Road in Kentfield. 10/24/2010 – A tree knocked down a power line when it fell in Inverness Park near the intersection of Portola Avenue and Vallejo Avenue. 2/15/2011 – High winds knocked down more than a dozen power poles across Marin County. 1/21/2012 – High winds caused over 4,000 homes to lose power across Marin County. 2/6/2015 – High winds blew multiple trees down onto Bear Valley Road near Inverness, closing the road in both directions. 2017 - In Inverness, the boulevard was closed at Pierce Point Road because of fallen trees. Nicasio Valley Road was closed between Sir Francis Drake Boulevard and Lucas Valley Road while crews removed fallen trees. 1/2023 – In Bolinas, extreme high winds estimated at close to 100 mph knocked down numerous trees across Mesa Road, closing the road several times, causing power outages and, in one case, injury. Impacts Straight-line winds may exacerbate existing weather conditions by increasing the effect on temperature and decreasing visibility due to the movement of particulate matters through the air, as in dust and snow storms. The winds may also exacerbate fire conditions by drying out the ground cover, propelling fuel around the region, and increasing the ferocity of exiting fires. These winds may cause personal injury, damage crops, push automobiles off roads, damage roofs and structures, overturn mobile homes, tear roofs off of houses, topple trees, snap power lines, shatter windows, sandblast paint from cars, and cause secondary damage due to flying debris. Other associated hazards include utility outages, arcing power lines, debris blocking streets, dust storms, and an occasional structure fire. Due to the wildfire threat posed by trees falling or leaning on power lines as a result of high winds and other conditions, Pacific Gas and Electric began initiating Public Safety Power shutoffs (PSPS) events after the 2017 Northern California Wildfires and the 2018 Camp Fire (see wildfire profile) in order to prevent the start of wildfires. These PSPS events can have numerous impacts on residents who rely on electricity for cooling their homes, powering water pumps, keeping critical medical equipment operable and other needs. In the Marin County OA, storms with strong winds knock down trees and power lines nearly every year and continue to slowly erode vulnerable coastal areas and critical inland ponds (i.e. reservoirs/dams, berms/levees around stormwater detention ponds, wastewater treatment/storage ponds). Although the entire OA is affected by wind, coastal areas tend to be impacted more frequently by the strongest winds (9+ on the Beaufort scale) than inland areas. The Marin County OA’s coastal areas have small resident populations but large visiting populations, such as Muir Beach, Stinson Beach, and Bolinas that can be impacted by strong winds. Beachgoers and boaters would be particularly impacted by wind hazards. Tourism is a key part of the economy in Marin County, particularly in coastal communities, and thus there are potentially significant economic impacts of wind events. Some communities, such as Oceana Marin and Olema, rely on water and wastewater infrastructure that has potential to be impacted by coastal erosion, wind driving up wave elevations, and erosion from waves forming due to l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 285 wind over treatment and storage ponds. Inland critical ponds are also impacted by wind-driven wave erosion such as dams on drinking water reservoirs, and levees/berms containing stormwater retention and detention ponds. Across the county powerlines are potentially impacted by wind, potentially affecting commercial, industrial, and residential areas, and most years downed trees lead to temporary road closures. Extent and Probability The Marin County OA’s most damaging wind events tend to range between 7 and 11 on the Beaufort scale, or 30 to 60 knots. These wind strengths are characterized as high wind to violent storm. Thus, most years whole trees are put in motion and the ocean heaps up and white foam and spindrift form. Slight structural damage and uprooted trees can result occasionally. Wind events and associated damages are expected to continue to occur several times per year. Table 3.17: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Severe Weather; Wind and Tornado Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 City of Belvedere Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 Town of Corte Madera Likely Negligible Weak Low Low 7.00 Town of Fairfax Likely Limited Moderate Medium Medium 11.00 City of Larkspur Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 14.00 City of Mill Valley Highly Likely Significant Moderate High Medium 14.00 City of Novato Likely Extensive Weak Medium Medium 12.00 Town of Ross Occasional Significant Moderate Medium Medium 11.00 Town of San Anselmo Likely Extensive Extreme High High 17.00 City of San Rafael Occasional Extensive Moderate Medium Medium 12.00 City of Sausalito Likely Significant Moderate Medium Medium 12.00 Town of Tiburon Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ I I I I I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 286 Bolinas Public Utility District Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High High 15.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Likely Negligible Weak Medium Medium 9.00 North Marin Water District Likely Extensive Weak Medium Medium 12.00 Southern Marin Fire District Likely Significant Moderate High Medium 13.00 Table 3.17: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Severe Weather; Wind Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts Vulnerability Areas of the Marin County OA, including the unincorporated area – coastal, mountainous and inland valleys where there are power lines, roads, and creeks/bridges, and ponded water for infrastructure (stormwater, wastewater, drinking water purposes), are particularly vulnerable to disruption due to wind damage, as are private structures with nearby trees. Certain locations are even more susceptible to damage due to building construction and the amount of tree canopy. Trees can fall on power lines, sparking wildfires and causing power outages. Trees can also fall on people and cars. People who live in homes with large tree branches over their roofs are particularly susceptible to high winds. Mobile home parks are vulnerable to high wind due to their light frame construction. Aviation vehicles, including small airplanes, are also susceptible to high winds and potential issues can arise when they are taking off and landing. Specific building codes should be considered for construction in Special Wind Regions. The systems that are most vulnerable are those that wouldn’t be able to be fully repaired quickly should there be a catastrophic failure during an extreme wind event, such as a breach of a levee or dam due to wave erosion. Some examples of vulnerable facilities include: • Oceana Marin Force Main Pump Station is 60 feet from the edge of a coastal bluff. • Coastal erosion rates up to 4.4 feet/year were anticipated in the Dillon Beach area (where Oceana Marin is located) according to a 2003 Cliff and Erosion Technical Background report prepared to support a Marin County Local Coastal Program update. Although only a small community would be affected by the failure, it would be a long time before the critical water supply facility could be replaced. Additionally, the community has a sewer line potentially vulnerable to coastal erosion. • Wind driven waves could flood the Olema Domestic Water Pump Station which would cause electrical and water supply failure to 43 residents, 3 hotels, a church, and a campground. • Stafford Dam’s (earthen) upstream face is subject to wind and wave action which has been eroding the gunite and welded wire reinforcement. A catastrophic failure could lead to inundation of the City of Novato and areas of the unincorporated County around it (see the subsection on Dam Failure for vulnerability analysis). l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 287 Tornado Tornadoes are rotating columns of air marked by a funnel-shaped downward extension of a cumulonimbus cloud whirling at destructive speeds of up to 300 mph, usually accompanying a thunderstorm. Tornadoes are the most powerful storms that exist, and damage paths can be in excess of one mile wide and 50 miles long. The Enhanced Fujita Scale (see Figure 3.137) is commonly used to rate the intensity of tornadoes in the United States based on the damages that they cause. Figure 3.137: Enhanced Fujita Scale Source: NOAA Tornadic waterspouts are tornadoes that form over water, or move from land to water. They have the same characteristics as a land tornado. They are associated with severe thunderstorms, and are often accompanied by high winds and seas, large hail, and frequent dangerous lightning. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ .J. _________________ _ Enhanced Fujita Scale . ~ • .... : ' ·' . .... -...... EF-1 EF-2 EF-3 EF-4 65-85 mph winds 86-110 mph winds 111-135 mph winds 136-165 mph winds 166-200 mph winds >200 mph winds 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 288 Figure 3.138: Waterspout Formation Source: MarineInsights Location and Previous Occurrences Compared to the areas east of the Rocky Mountains, tornado occurrence over the western United States is much less frequent and even more rare across the Marin County OA due to its topography. A tornado in the Marin County OA would most likely begin as an off-shore waterspout that comes ashore off the coast and transitions into a tornado over lower-lying terrain, particularly in the area of Tomales Bay. Tornadoes could also form in the low-lying northerly parts of the OA near Sonoma County. Table 3.18: shows a map of all tornado activity in the Marin County OA since 1973. Column Definitions: 'Mag': Magnitude, 'Dth': Deaths, 'Inj': Injuries, 'PrD': Property Damage, 'CrD': Crop Damage Table 3.18: Tornados Activity in the Marin County OA Location County/Zone St. Date Time T.Z. Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD TOMALES MARIN CO. CA 12/23/1996 10:00 PST Tornado F1 0 0 200.00K 5.00K Totals: 0 0 200.00K 5.00K Table 3.18: Tornado Activity in the Marin County OA Source: NOAA From 1950 to 2020, there has been only one recorded tornado in the Marin County OA according to the National Weather Service. An EF-1 touched down in Tomales on December 23rd, 1996. This storm began over the ocean as a waterspout that moved in land. It destroyed a large barn and 10 large eucalyptus trees, and five telephone poles. It also ripped the roof off l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ WATERSPOUTS AT SEA IT'S NOT SEAWATER INSIDE WATERSPOUTS The clouds gather. and water condensation leads to a swirling mass of water droplets. WIND VELOCITY Accordi ng to NOAA, an average waterspout is around SO meters in diameter. and its associated wind moves at 50 miles an hour. I I TORNADIC AND NON- TORNADIC WATER SPOUTS A tornadic waterspout Is associated with ~~Y1~i~;ti~~~~~~Ti~fu~~~- Fair·weathe, waterspouts need warm water to develop along the dark flat base of a line of growing cumulus clouds. THE EARLIEST WATERSPOUTS In 1555, at the Grand Harbour of Valletta. I I CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE I I I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 289 another house. A farmer was in the barn when it was blown over but he was not injured. There were over $200,000 in damages. At least two other waterspouts were reported as well as heavy rain and small hail in the Tomales Bay area. Larger and more destructive tornados have occurred just north of the Marin County OA in Sonoma County, including an EF 2 tornado near Petaluma in 1958 and an EF 1 tornado near Santa Rosa in 1996 that caused over $1 million in damages. Impacts Tornadoes can cause damage to property and loss of life. While most tornado damage is caused by violent winds, the majority of injuries and deaths generally result from flying debris. Property damage can include damage to buildings, fallen trees and power lines, broken gas lines, broken sewer and water mains, and the outbreak of fires. Agricultural crops and industries may also be damaged or destroyed. Access roads and streets may be blocked by debris, delaying necessary emergency response. Extent and Probability The Marin County OA would most likely experience an EF-0 or an EF-1 tornado, with little to moderate damage. The potential does exist for an EF-0 or an EF-1 tornado to cause injury and death. While unlikely, a stronger EF-2 tornado does have the potential to occur in the Marin County OA and could cause considerable damages to buildings and infrastructure. Such a tornado could destroy mobile homes, tear roofs off well-constructed houses, shift the foundations of frame houses, and lift cars off the ground. The probability of a tornado occurring in the Marin County OA is extremely rare. Vulnerability As with high winds, certain locations are more susceptible to damage due to building construction and the amount of tree canopy. Trees can fall on power lines and cause power outages and can also fall on people and cars. Power lines, transmission lines, and radio towers are all vulnerable to a direct hit from a tornado. A greater amount of property is vulnerable to damage from a tornado than a regular wind due to the higher wind speeds of tornado. Mobile home parks are vulnerable to tornadoes due to their light frame construction, as are industrial and commercial sites with loose materials. Aviation vehicles, including small airplanes, are also susceptible to tornadoes. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations It is anticipated that the atmospheric rivers that deliver storms to Northern California may intensify because of climate change. This increase in storm intensity may bring more intense winds and potential tornados to Northern California, including the Marin County OA. Significant wind events and tornadoes can topple trees, particularly those that may be saturated, or drought stressed as a result of climate change. An increase in fallen trees as a result of increased storms due to climate change can lead to an increase in power outages. Future development in any of the forested areas of the Marin County OA will increase the effects of severe wind events. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 290 3.3.11 TSUNAMI Tsunamis consist of waves generated by large disturbances of the sea floor, which are caused by volcanic eruptions, landslides or earthquakes. Shallow earthquakes along dip slip faults are more likely to be sources of tsunami than those along strike slip faults. The West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) is responsible for tsunami warnings. Tsunamis are often incorrectly referred to as tidal waves. They are actually a series of waves that can travel at speeds averaging 450 (and up to 600) miles per hour with unusual wave heights. Tsunamis can reach the beach before warnings are issued. Location and Previous Occurrences Tsunamis could occur in numerous areas of the Marin County OA. The California Department of Conservation updated the tsunami hazard maps for Marin County in 2022. Figure 3.139 shows all the tsunami inundation areas of the Marin County OA. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 291 Figure 3.139: Tsunami Inundation Zones in the Marin County OA Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN e Dams a ~ Legend • Mi litary and Civil Defense Installations Communication Facilities Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities e Wate r Supp ly Fac ilities Airports Mar in Cou nty Tsunami DIIICIOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IOI • • • • • • • Emergency Operations Centers Fire Stations Hospitals and Medical Faci lities Police / Sheriff Stations Schools Tsunami Inundation • 0 Marin County OEM / Woody Baker -Cohn email: OEM _GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Printed : 10/19/23 12 37 ~an N County of Marin, callfornia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Technologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA, County of Marin, california State Parks, Esri , HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph , FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 292 Tsunami inundation zones extend into several unincorporated communities in Marin County which are shown below. Figures 3.140 and 3.141 show the tsunami inundation zone in and around Inverness. Figure 3.140: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Inverness Area Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN 0 ' a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 293 Figure 3.141: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Inverness Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ ~ lnveme<;,; 'tlolunt-f!M nr• Dep..1rtmc"t1! lWl b·l11erntss l-!br.:i,y Poi11t Reye-s StupwteCk5 f.fGrCJneJfi Pork 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 294 Figure 3.142 shows the tsunami inundation zone south of Inverness. Figure 3.142: Tsunami Inundation Zone – South of Inverness Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Dr•k,,\,~0, ¼ ~'p. t ~ ~~ °"'liJ"11l<N~ /✓ ~IW.'-"• ,-, ✓ ~ l Tomares Bay Ecological Reserve 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 295 Figure 1.143 shows the tsunami inundation zone around Inverness Park and Point Reyes. Figure 3.143: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Inverness Park and Point Reyes Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 296 Figure 3.144 shows the tsunami inundation zone around Reynolds and Marshall. Figure 3.144: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Reynolds and Marshall Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Morconi Conference Cen1er Stare His1or,c 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 297 Figure 3.145 shows the tsunami inundation zone around McDonald and Blakes Landing. Figure 3.145: Tsunami Inundation Zone – McDonald and Blakes Landing Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ McDo nald 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 298 Figure 3.146 shows the tsunami inundation zone south of Tomales. Figure 3.146: Tsunami Inundation Zone – South of Tomales Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN "}f ~ a ~ 1/ / / , / ' ,· J.i i/ / I ! ! I ! ,. / 1 ' / .' .' I ' j ,./ i:o--~~-·, \ ·,., \ '. \ I \ '·, ·~ -~ ·, 7 -~.I'•, \ \ / \ /, ,•-.... ·, ( \ 1 ,.~ ,. i r / ,' 1 ·~ ' , !, I \ \ \ ' ... ,·- : I ,· j j I ! : I ,' ; ! ,' ~/· ; ,.~· ' 1' .~· , ( / , , , 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 299 Figure 3.147 and 3.14 8 shows the tsunami inundation zone in and around Dillon Beach. Figure 3.147: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Dillon Beach Area Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ ' ' ·, 1. ; ' . . ' ,. '! ' ,: ........ ' ....... _ -,\, __ .. SU~r1oof Hill 61m ·, . 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 300 Figure 3.148: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Dillon Beach Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 Figure 3.149 shows the tsunami inundation zone around the northern Bolinas Lagoon. Figure 3.149: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Bolinas Lagoon North Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ j l I J ✓/ I ,,, t ~---.,o, ..... , ... .- ., ~ ,,../ "' .. / ~·/ / / / 1:- 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 301 Figures 3.150, 3.151 and 3.152 shows the tsunami inundation zone in and around Bolinas. Figure 3.150: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Bolinas Area Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN ... a ~ " i ,, '¾, ., . .,;I,.., ; .. 1 . ., 6 " #",# ... ; ' Bolinas Lag oon Open Spore Preserve iJ:JJ,rJU!i Loau1.H 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 302 Figure 3.151: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Bolinas Core Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 1;e.ir:ice Jlwenue C'.in)"()nRoacl Bol•n,is 811(]tll(Jri .1\-.if'n ,.r- !. Whad Roa<l ,i1--1ir7r '?r1 ,: 81-n.' (1,:..·_.1 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 303 Figure 3.152: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Bolinas North Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 Figure 3.153 and 3.154 shows the tsunami inundation zone in and around Stinson Beach. Figure 3.153: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Stinson Beach Area Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ " 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 304 Figure 3.154: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Stinson Beach Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 1 ~<?U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ p Q o;;;rlr.<;0 11 BNch P,>r l..,ng Lu< p • • ;;::; ,,. - c,tm son Arenal Avenue --l!cJ~~l /'} It. Pc 51 o_rf<e p 0 St inton 6 e ,1,ti '.vi~•tor •(PnH•r p 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 305 Figure 3.155 shows the tsunami inundation zone in Muir Beach. Figure 3.155: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Muir Beach Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 rt;\ ~ .J' , "" .,I ~~ ( ' "~ \. \ Inn ,/'......._\ f ......... .. \ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 306 Figure 3.156 and 3.15 7 shows the tsunami inundation zone in Tamalpais Valley. Figure 3.156: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Tamalpais Valley South Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN l i a ~ Sh,,,,r...,. ~~• 'Ir (.•rrl ~·t~::: .L,·••·u• // 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 307 Figure 3.157: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Tamalpais Valley North Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN 1 i , J ~~ a ~ . ..,, ,J&,-,J-• '~ Ci)' .. "'1-.Js..--.ai;;...-.L. J l f I .. ~ I /' ,,, / 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 308 Figure 3.158 shows the tsunami inundation zone in Marin City. Figure 3.158: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Marin City Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 Figure 3.159 shows the tsunami inundation zone in Manzanita. Figure 3.159: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Manzanita Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 U.N. TYOF a ARIN ~~-~:~----~ ,.. .,,,., /,',(Jt/1(1 iul/i,i l,1. ::::.1:.., ---- ••••• ••...... '~.,, :··t7~~.\'.., 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 309 Figure 3.160 and 3.15 61 shows the tsunami inundation zone in Strawberry. Figure 3.160: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Strawberry South Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN Ric r son B rdg~ V.1/1:, "'' ' a ~ ~"' ,,.,1,, ii.u·I ·, .Arornb,:..ro J:s rrm6 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 310 Figure 3.161 shows the tsunami inundation zone in the unincorporated area of the Tiburon Peninsula. Figure 3.161: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Unincorporated Tiburon Peninsula Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 Figure 3.162 shows the tsunami inundation zone in Paradise Cay. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 311 Figure 3.162: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Paradise Cay Source: California Department of Conservation, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN .I ,/ , ..... ~~~-- , ng ,1ou11 tain 185m a ~ Tr imcl ,1-d D I rW' 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 312 Figure 3.163: North Marin Tsunami Inundation Zones Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ ,11 Olompal, State Historic Park e Dams Communication Facilities Marin County Airport-Gnoss Fi eld Legend North Marin Tsunami Fire Stations Hospitals and Medica l Facil ities 'al Police / Sheriff Stations Schools Electric Power Facil it ies Airports Emergency Operations Centers Tsunami Inundation County of Marin, ca11tornia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Ga "'1arm Counh DfllctOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 1.7 Miles Bak - nty. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 313 Figure 3.164: Santa Venetia Tsunami Inundation Zones Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Communiration Facil it ies Wastewater Fac ilities Airports Emergency Operations Centers Santa Venetia Tsunami Hospitals and Medica l Facilities Police / Sheriff Stations Schools CJ Building Footprints -Tsunami Inundation DfllctOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 0.7 ••c::=••••■Miles 0 0.2 0 .3 in County OEM·ifuWdy_tBaker-Cohn ail: OEM _GIS@Ma'rl ~otrn\ly.org ~ ate Printed : 10/19/23 N ERE, Gannin, SafeGraph, Geo , Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGrap ~og,~j/lffe"METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, ies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 314 Figure 3.165: Greenbrae Tsunami Inundation Zones Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Aoun In Blithedale Summit Communication Facilities Legend Electric Power Facil it ies Wastewater Facil ities Emergency Operations Centers Green brae Tsun ami Fire Stations Hospitals and Medica l Facil it ies Police / Sheriff Stations Schools ail: OEM _ ate Printed : 1 DIIICUII EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ~ N 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 315 Figure 3.166: Richardson Bay Tsunami Inundation Zones Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ • Military and Civil Defense Installations Communic.ation Facilities Electric Power Facil it ies Wastewater Facil ities Airports Rich a rd son Bay Tsunami Emergency Operations Centers Fire Stations Hospitals and Medica l Facil it ies Police / Sheriff Stations Schools -Tsunami Inundation 0.4 0.8 DIIICUII EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT nty OEM / Woody Baker- GIS@MarlnCounty,9)'.9"·,... 10/19/23 ,:,,-/ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 316 Figure 3.167: Tomales Bay Tsunami Inundation Zones Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ lo 0 0 1) ""' e., () () 0 t>• Legend Fire St atio ns Schools D Bui lding Footprints 0 Tsuna mi In undati on [? . " ~ o O ~ <ti"' 0 " p o. Tamales Bay Tsun ami DIIICIOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT I> " ~ 0 () .. _co 0 Cl <::i," .,, fll.l , • I) t'ari n County OEM / Woody Baker -Cohn em a011: OEM _GIS @MarinCounty.org • Date·'Printed:0 10/19/23 0 I'\ • County of Marin, caltfornia St ate Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Technologies, Inc, METI/NAs!?, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, US DA, Esri Commun ity Maps Contributors, County of Marin, california State Parks, Esri, HERE'/'~rmin, Sares,/aph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 317 Figure 3.168: Bolinas – Stinson Tsunami Inundation Zones Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN , ... a ~ Solinas -St in so n Tsun ami DIIICUII EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Legend e Da ms Co mmun ication Fac il ities Fire Sta t io ns Hospita ls and Medical Faci li t ie s Schools D Bui lding Footprints -Tsunam i I nundation 0 0.3 0.5 1 Miles Mari n Cou nty OEM / Woody Baker-C.ohn email : OEM_GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Pri nted : 10/19/23 1 N County of Marin, CaUfomla State Parits, Esrl, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologles, Inc, METI/NASA. USGS, Bureau of Land Management. EPA, NPS, USDA, County of Marin, California Slate Parits, Esrl, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA. USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 318 Tsunamis have caused loss of life and damaged property in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast over the last hundred years. Over 80 tsunamis have been observed or recorded along the coast of California in the past 150 years. Since 1946, there have been five tsunamis known to have caused damage to ports and harbors in California with several impacting unincorporated Marin County: In 1960, a tsunami caused by a magnitude 9.5 earthquake offshore from Chile resulted in minor inundation to the beach at Stinson Beach. In 1964, a tsunami caused by a magnitude 9.2 earthquake offshore from Alaska resulted in 12 deaths in California and destroyed portions of downtown Crescent City. There was damage to Lawson’s Pier in Tomales Bay. A man drowned in Bolinas. A 2006 tsunami (originating in the Kurile Islands region) caused approximately $20 million in damage to Crescent City harbor. A 2010 tsunami (originating offshore from Chile) caused several million dollars in damage to ports and harbors in the state. A tsunami in 2011 caused by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake offshore of Japan killed one person at the mouth of the Klamath River and caused up to $100 million damage to 27 ports, harbors, and marinas throughout the state. Impacts Community exposure to tsunamis in California varies considerably—some communities may experience great losses that reflect only a small part of their community and others may experience relatively small losses that devastate them. Among the incorporated communities and the unincorporated areas of the county are communities that have the highest number of people and businesses in the tsunami‐inundation zone. The communities of Belvedere and Sausalito have the highest percentages of people and businesses in this zone. Extent and Probability Tsunamis can travel at speeds of over 600 miles per hour in the open ocean and can grow to over 50 feet in height when they approach a shallow shoreline, causing severe damage to coastal development. Recent studies of the continental shelf off the California coast indicate a potential for underwater landslides capable of generating damaging tsunamis that could threaten coastal communities. Tsunamis are a relatively infrequent occurrence in the Marin County OA. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 319 Table 3:19: Tsunami Hazard Risk Assessment Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Highly Likely Limited Extreme Medium High 15.00 City of Belvedere Highly Likely Significant Severe High High 16.00 Town of Corte Madera Unlikely Limited Moderate Low Low 7.00 Town of Fairfax None None None None None 0.00 City of Larkspur Occasional Limited Extreme None High 11.00 City of Mill Valley Unlikely Negligible Severe Medium Medium 9.00 City of Novato Unlikely Negligible Weak None Low 4.00 Town of Ross None None None None None 0.00 Town of San Anselmo None None None None None 0.00 City of San Rafael Unlikely Limited Moderate None Medium 7.00 City of Sausalito None Limited Weak Low Low 5.00 Town of Tiburon Highly Likely Limited Extreme Medium High 15.00 Bolinas Public Utility District Occasional Limited Severe Low High 11.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Unlikely Extensive Severe None Medium 10.00 North Marin Water District Unlikely Negligible Extreme Low Low 8.00 Southern Marin Fire District Likely Limited Moderate Low Low 8.00 Table 3.19: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment - Tsunami Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 320 Vulnerability Some Marin County OA communities may be more vulnerable to tsunamis because of the location and quality of the built environment. Several unincorporated communities could be particularly susceptible to a tsunami: Numerous shoreline homes, businesses, buildings and sections of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard along the west shore of Tomales Bay from Seahaven down through Inverness to Inverness Park lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. The downtown commercial district of Inverness, including the Post Office and several businesses, lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. Numerous shoreline homes, businesses, buildings and sections of Highway 1 along the east shore of Tomales Bay from Bivalve to Hamlet and up Keys Creek south of Tomales lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. Low lying areas of Dillon Beach, including the main beach parking area and access road, lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. Both the east and west sides of the Bolinas Lagoon lie in a tsunami inundation zone, including all of Highway 1 on the west side from Stinson Beach to the intersection of Olema Bolinas Road north of Bolinas. The northern end of Bolinas, including several homes, the Bolinas-Stinson Elementary School, and a section of Horseshoe Hill Road, lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. The community of Bolinas is particularly susceptible to a tsunami as it could essentially be isolated with access roads north and south becoming flooded in a tsunami. Most of the commercial center of Bolinas, including several businesses, residences, the College of Marin-Bolinas Campus and the Bolinas Library lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. Most of Stinson Beach south of Highway 1, including Seadrift Road, Dipsea Road, and Calle del Aroyo lie in a tsunami inundation zone, and there are hundreds of homes and buildings in this area along with the Stinson Beach Fire Station #2 and the Water District office that could be susceptible to a tsunami. The commercial center of Stinson Beach, including several businesses, the entire beach area including access roads and parking lots, and a section of Highway 1 lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. A section of Muir Beach up Redwood Creek that includes several homes and businesses, the Muir Beach Fire Station, and a section of Highway 1 lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. A large section of Tamalpais Valley, including smaller sections to the north adjacent to and including the City of Mill Valley, lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami pushing water up Coyote Creek. There are hundreds of homes, commercial buildings, the Southern Marin Fire Protection District Station #4 and part of Tamalpais Valley Elementary School that lie in this area. Most of the commercial core of Marin City, including the Gateway Shopping Center, the Martin Luther King Jr. Academy, the Marin City Fire Station, and numerous residences lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. The Waldo Point community consisting of dozens of floating homes in Richardson Bay could be susceptible to a tsunami. The area around the intersection of Highways 1 and 101 including the highways themselves, the Commodore Heliport and several businesses lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 321 Both sides of the Strawberry Peninsula lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. There are dozens of homes in this area along with numerous commercial buildings, the Strawberry Point elementary school and a large section of Highway 101 that could be susceptible to a tsunami. There are also several homes in the northwest corner of Strawberry near Alto that lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. The eastern side of the Tiburon Peninsula, where there are dozens of homes and buildings along with the Sanitary District #5 - Paradise Cove Treatment Plant, lies in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. Most of Paradise Cay lies in a tsunami inundation zone. There are dozens of homes in this area that could be susceptible to a tsunami. The southwest side of Kentfield lies in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. There are dozens of homes and numerous businesses in this area along with the A.E. Kent Middle School, the Anthony Bacich G. Elementary School, part of the parking lot for the Marin General hospital, and most of the College of Marin campus and part of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard. A small section of Greenbrae that consists of a few homes and a section of Sir Francis Drake Boulevard, along with a small Section of California City that consists of a few homes, lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. A large section of San Quentin lies in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. There are dozens of homes along San Pedro Road in the unincorporated county south of the City of San Rafael that lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. The McNear Brick Yard and parts of Point San Pedro lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. Most of northern Santa Venetia along the Santa Venitia Marsh and the South Fork of Galinas Creek lies in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. There are several hundred homes in this area along with numerous pump stations and several medical facilities. While most of Bel Marin Keys lies outside of a tsunami inundation zone, the far eastern side has several homes that lie inside a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. The Hamilton Wetlands PG&E substation could also be susceptible to a tsunami, as it lies on the fringe of a tsunami inundation zone. Parts of the Black Point area close to the Petaluma River Marsh lie on the edge of a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. There are several homes in this area that mostly lie at the end of cul de sacs. The principal exposure to the Marin County OA will be people, buildings, and infrastructure located in the low-lying potential inundation areas. Especially at risk are visitors, hikers, campers, and non-residents who might be on the shore when the tsunami strikes. Associated risks to tsunami include flooding, contamination of drinking water, ruptured tanks or gas lines, lack of ingress and egress, and the loss of vital community infrastructure. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations The biggest threat to tsunamis is sea level rise which is a direct result of climate change. Sea level rise can make tsunamis worse than they already are because higher sea levels allow for tsunamis to travel further inland and cause even more damage. Sea level rise results in more l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 322 vulnerable coastlines which make coastal communities even more vulnerable to an incoming tsunami as the natural buffer to absorb the energy of an incoming tsunami will cease to exist. This is particularly true in the Marin County OA , where most of the developed population lies in an area vulnerable to sea level rise. Furthermore, it has been theorized that ocean warming, caused by climate change, can impact the tectonic plates that rest below large bodies of water. Ultimately, this can result in more geological activities and worse tsunamis. Climate change has also affected ocean patterns, which could eventually lead to tsunamis distributing themselves across the ocean and impacting areas that are currently not susceptible to a tsunami. Tsunamis as a result of climate change and associated sea level rise will exacerbate the impacts of flooding in the lowland areas of the Marin County OA. Future development in these areas will expose more people and infrastructure to the effects of flooding in the Marin County OA as tsunami inundation areas expand with climate change. Development in marshland in the Marin County OA would expose additional people and infrastructure to flooding as marshlands act as a natural buffer to a tsunami. Flooding could be exacerbated in areas where levees could fail as a result of high wave heights associated with a more significant tsunami. 3.3.12 WILDFIRE A wildfire is a fire that occurs in an area of combustible vegetation. The three conditions necessary for a wildfire to burn are fuel, heat, and oxygen. Fuel is any flammable material that can burn, including vegetation, structures, and cars. The more fuel that exists and the drier that fuel is, the more intense the fire can be. Wildfires can be started naturally through lightning or combustion or can be set by humans. There are many sources of human-caused wildfires including arson, power lines, a burning campfire, an idling vehicle, trains, and escaped controlled burns. On average, four out of five wildfires are started by humans. Uncontrolled wildfires fueled by wind and weather can burn acres of land and everything in their path in mere minutes and can reach speeds up to 15 miles per hour. On average, more than 100,000 wildfires burn 4 to 5 million acres of land in the United States every year. Although wildfires can occur in any state, they are most common in the Western states including California where heat, drought, and thunderstorms create perfect wildfire conditions. Wildfires are of primary concern when they occur in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), which is defined as areas where homes are built near or among lands prone to wildfire. Even relatively small acreage fires may result in disastrous damages. Most structures in the WUI are not destroyed from direct flame impingement, but from embers carried by wind. The damages can be widely varying, but are primarily reported as damage to infrastructure, built environment, and injuries to people. WUI fires have unique chemistry due to the combination of natural and human-made fuels that are burned, which may lead to the formation or release of toxic emissions not found in purely wildland fires. The pattern of increased damages is directly related to increased urban spread into historical forested areas that have wildfire as part of the natural ecosystem. Many WUI fire areas have long histories of wildland fires that burned only vegetation in the past. However, with new development, a wildland fire following a historical pattern may now burn these newly developed areas. WUI fires can occur where there is a distinct boundary between the built and natural areas or where development or infrastructure has encroached or is intermixed in the natural area. WUI fires may include fires that occur in remote areas that have critical infrastructure l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 323 easements through them, including electrical transmission towers, railroads, water reservoirs, communications relay sites or other infrastructure assets. Consequently, wildland fires that burn in natural settings with little or no development are part of a natural ecological cycle and may actually be beneficial to the landscape. Century old policies of fire exclusion and aggressive suppression have given way to better understanding of the importance fire plays in the natural cycle of certain forest types. Warning times are usually adequate to ensure public safety, provided that evacuation recommendations and orders are heeded in a timely manner. While in most cases wildfires are contained within a week or two of outbreak, in certain cases, they have been known to burn for months, or until they are completely extinguished by fall rains. Wildfire poses the greatest risk to human life and property in the Marin County OA’s densely populated WUI, which holds an estimated 69,000 living units. Marin County is home to 23 communities listed on CAL FIRE’s Communities at Risk list, with approximately 80% of the total land area in the county designated as having moderate to very high fire hazard severity ratings. The county has a long fire history with many large fires over the past decades, several of which have occurred in the WUI. To compound the issue, national fire suppression policies and practices have contributed to the continuous growth (and overgrowth) of vegetation resulting in dangerous fuel loads. The Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP) provides a scientifically based assessment of wildfire threat in the WUI of the Marin County OA. Fire protection in California is the responsibility of either the federal, state, or local government. On federally owned land, or federal responsibility areas (FRA), fire protection is provided by the federal government, or in partnership with local agreements. In state responsibility areas (SRA), CAL FIRE typically provides fire protection. However, in some counties CAL FIRE contracts with county fire departments to provide protection of the SRA – this is the case in Marin County, where CAL FIRE contracts with Marin County Fire Department (MCFD). Local responsibility areas (LRA) include incorporated cities and cultivated agriculture lands, and fire protection is typically provided by city fire departments, fire protection districts, counties, and by CAL FIRE under contract to local government. The MCFD is responsible for the protection of approximately 200,000 acres of SRA within the county and is the primary agency that handles wildland fires. MCFD also provides similar protection services to approximately 100,000 acres of FRA in the Golden Gate National Recreation Area (GGNRA), the Muir Woods National Monument, and the Point Reyes National Seashore. Figure 3.1 69 indicates the federal responsibility areas, state responsibility areas and local responsibility areas in the Marin County OA. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 324 Figure 3.169: Federal, State and Local Responsibility Areas in the Marin County OA Source: Marin County OEM The mix of weather, diverse vegetation and fuel characteristics, complex topography, and land use and development patterns in the Marin County OA are important contributors to the fire l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County Fire Responsibility Areas LRA /SRA/ FRA Respons ibility Areas FRA 0 Pela luma 0 • OlllCIOf ... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT El Verano Sonoma San Pablo Bay Wildlife Area SRA LRA Marin County OEM / Woody Baker -Cohn emai l: OEM _G IS@MarinCounty.org ~an Date Printed: 08/08/23 N County of Marin, (alifomia State Parks, Esrl, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS 1( 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 325 environment. The MCFD Woodacre Emergency Command Center currently manages the data from four Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) for predicting fire danger utilizing the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) during the fire season. The RAWS are located in Woodacre, Middle Peak, Barnabe, Big Rock and a new station will be coming online in Novato. Marin County is bounded by the cool waters of the Pacific Ocean to the west, the San Francisco and Richardson Bays to the southeast, the San Pablo Bay to the east, and Sonoma County agricultural lands to the north. The combination of these large bodies of water, location in the mid-latitudes, and the persistent high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean results in several micro-climates. Weather in the OA consists of warm, dry summers and cool, wet winters. The climate in early fall and late spring is generally similar to the summer, and late fall is similar to winter. Spring is generally cool, but not as wet as the winter. While these general weather conditions are fairly representative of the typical Marin County weather, complex topography, annual variability of weather patterns, and less frequent and transient weather patterns are important to fire conditions. In the late spring through early fall, the combination of frequent and strong high-pressure systems (known as the Pacific High) over California combined with the cool waters of the ocean/bays results in persistent fog and low clouds along the coast (including over southern Marin County near the San Francisco Bay). The fog often penetrates into the inland valleys of northern and central Marin County, especially during overnight hours. At the coastline, mist from fog can keep the land surfaces modestly moist while inland land surfaces above the fog or inversion are often very dry. The Pacific High that persists from late spring through early fall over the eastern Pacific, combined with a thermal low pressure over the Central Valley of California, results in an almost continuous sea breeze. These winds usher in cool and moist air and can be strong (15 to 25 mph), especially over the ridge tops and through northwest to southeast lying valleys, including San Geronimo/Ross, Hicks, and Lucas Valleys. These westerly winds are usually highest in the afternoon, decrease in the evening, and are light overnight before increasing again in the late morning/early afternoon. Occasionally in the summer and more often in the fall, the Pacific High moves inland and centers over Oregon and Idaho, while low pressure moves from the Central Valley of California to southern California and Arizona. The resulting north-to -south pressure gradient can be strong enough to retard the typical sea breeze and can even result in winds blowing from the land to the ocean (offshore winds). As the offshore winds move air from the Great Basin to the coastal areas of California, the air descends and compresses, which greatly warms and dries the air. Under these “Diablo” wind conditions, temperatures in the Marin County OA can reach 100°F in the inland areas and even 80°F at the coast, and relative humidity can be very low. In addition, wind speeds can be high (20 to 40 mph) and gusty and are often much faster over the mountains and ridge tops such as Mt. Tamalpais, Loma Alta, and Mt. Burdell compared to low- lying areas. Wind speeds can be high over the ridges and mountains at all times of day under this “offshore” wind pattern and are often much slower or even calm at night in low-lying areas because nighttime cooling decouples the aloft winds from the surface winds. It is during these Diablo wind events that there is a high potential for large, wind-driven fires should there be an ignition. Historically, the largest and most destructive fires have occurred during these offshore (also known as Foehn) wind events including the Angel Island and the Vision fires. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 326 A few times per year in the summer and early fall, monsoonal flow from Mexico brings in moist and unstable air over central and northern California, which can result in thunderstorms with or without precipitation. With the otherwise dry summer conditions, the lightning can ignite fires. These monsoonal flow patterns are usually only one to two-day events. Beginning in late November and lasting through the end of March, the Pacific High moves south and weakens, allowing storms that originate in the Gulf of Alaska to move over California. These storms bring precipitation and, at times, strong winds out of the south. Each storm usually results in one fourth inch to several inches of rain over a day or so. Near Mt. Tamalpais, rainfall amounts are enhanced by orographic lifting, resulting in higher rain amounts in the Kentfield and Fairfax areas compared to the rest of the county. Typically, after the first rain in November, the cool weather and occasional storm keeps the ground wet through late Spring. However, in some years, significant rain does not occur until later in the year (e.g., early-to-late December) and there can be several weeks without any storms and rain. During storms, temperatures are usually mild. When there are no storms over California, a land-breeze typically forms (i.e., winds blowing from the Central Valley to the Pacific Ocean). These winds can reach 30 mph, and travel through the southeast to northwest lying valleys, over low-lying ridges such as the Marin Headlands, and through the Golden Gate. These winds are usually highest in the mid-morning hours and decrease in the afternoon as the Central Valley warms during the day. The winds are associated with cold and modestly moist air. In late February/early March through late April, the Pacific High strengthens and moves north, and storms impacting the county become less frequent. During this time of year there is often a low-pressure area over the desert in southwest California. The combination of the Pacific High to the north and low-pressure to the southwest results in strong winds blowing from the northwest to the southeast. Like the sea breeze, these winds bring in cool, moist air and are usually highest in the afternoon hours. Because of winter and spring rains, the land is wet and there is little danger of wildland fire despite the strong winds and only occasional precipitation. There is often little coastal fog this time of year. Vegetation, which is also known as fuel, plays a major role in fire behavior and potential fire hazards. A fuel’s composition, including moisture level, chemical make-up, and density, determines its degree of flammability. Of these, fuel moisture level is the most important consideration. Generally, live trees contain a great deal of moisture while dead logs contain very little. The moisture content and distribution of fuels define how quickly a fire can spread and how intense or hot it may become. High moisture content will slow the burning process since heat from the fire must first eliminate moisture. In addition to moisture, a fuel’s chemical makeup determines how readily it will burn. Some plants, shrubs, and trees such as chamise and eucalyptus (both present in the Marin County OA) contain oils or resins that promote combustion, causing them to burn more easily, quickly, and intensely. Finally, the density of a fuel influences its flammability; when fuels are close together but not too dense, they will ignite each other, causing the fuel to spread readily. However, if fuels are so close that air cannot circulate easily, the fuel will not burn freely. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 327 The Marin County OA has extensive topographic diversity that supports a variety of vegetation types. Environmental factors, such as temperature, precipitation, soil type, aspect, slope, and land use history, all help determine the existing vegetation at any given location. In the central and eastern parts of the county, north facing slopes are usually densely wooded from lower elevations to ridge peaks with a mixture of mostly hardwood tree species such as coast live oak, California bay, Pacific madrone, and other oak species. Marshlands are also present throughout the county; once ignited marsh fires can be difficult to contain and extinguish. Grasslands with a mixture of native and nonnative annual and perennial plant species occur most often in the northern and western parts of the county due to a combination of soil type, lower rainfall, and a long history of ranching. The southern and western facing slopes tend to have a higher percentage of grasslands, which in turn have the potential to experience higher rates of fire spread. Grassland fires are dangerous even without extreme fire weather scenarios due to the rapid rate of fire spread; in some cases, fires spread so quickly that large areas can burn before response resources are able to arrive. In the west portion of the county closer to the coast, where precipitation is higher and marine influence is greater, most areas are densely forested with conifer species (i.e., Bishop pine, Douglas-fir, and coast redwood) and associated hardwood species. Chaparral vegetation also occurs in parts of the county, especially on steeper south and west facing slopes. This mix of densely forested areas mixed with chaparral results in higher fuel loads and potentially higher fire intensity. Expansion of the residential community into areas of heavier vegetation has resulted in homes existing in close proximity to dense natural foliage; these homes are often completely surrounded by highly combustible or tall vegetation, increasing the potential that wildland fires could impact them. As part of the development of the CWPP, an updated vegetation map layer was created using the most recent vegetation information available from a variety of state and local data sources. Vegetation distribution in the Marin County OA is characterized by approximately 20 different types of vegetation which have been classified into 15 fire behavior fuel models. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 328 Figure 3.170: Fuel Model Map for the Marin County OA Source: Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan, 2020 Insect infestations and plant diseases, such as California oak mortality syndrome (sudden oak death), are increasing and threaten to change the structure and overall health of native plant communities in Marin County. Sudden oak death has no known cure and is the biggest concern; this syndrome is caused by the fungus-like Phytophthora ramorum, which has led to widespread mortality of several tree species in California since the mid-1990s; the tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) in particular appears to have little or no resistance to the disease. Sudden oak death has resulted in stands of essentially dead trees with very low fuel moistures. Studies examining the impacts of sudden oak death on fire behavior indicate that while predicted surface fire behavior in sudden oak death stands seems to conform to a common fuel model already in use for hardwood stands, the very low moisture content of dead tanoak leaves may lead to crown ignitions more often during fires of “normal” intensity. Two other plant diseases prevalent in the Marin County OA are pitch canker (which affects conifers such as Bishop pine and other pine species), and madrone twig dieback (which affects Pacific madrones). Pitch canker is caused by the fungus Fusarium circinatum (F. subglutinans, F. sp. pini), which enters the tree through wounds caused by insects. While some trees do recover, most infected trees are eventually killed by the fungus. Management of this disease largely focuses on containment to reduce the fungus spreading to other trees. Pitch canker is a l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN Fuel Mode l a ~ D 101 : Shoo, Sparse Ory Climate GraH D 102: Law Load , Dry Climate Grus D 104 : Moderate Load , Dry Clima te Grass LJ 107: High Load. Dry Climate Cren I=i 121 : Low Loed, Dry Climate Gre.ss-Shrub Cl 141 : Low Load Dry Chmato Shrub (:=) 142: Moderate lood Df"/ Chmate Shrub 145· H~h LoOO, Ory Climate Shrub CJ 147. Very High Load. DryCC.rnatc Sh1ub 165· Very Hioh Load. Ory Climate Timber~Shn.Jb 1 tl1 -tow Lo AA Comp:w.:t Conifer Liner 18'2 · I ow l,o;.d RroMtleaf I Iner -166: Moderat~ Load Broadleaf Litte r -189: Very High Lo.ad Oroad!eaf Litter -91 : Urban.1Developed 98 : Open 'Nater c::J 99. Bart:" G11)und 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 329 particular issue in the NPS lands of Pt. Reyes National Seashore, where many acres of young Bishop Pines that were seeded on the Inverness Ridge by the Mount Vision Fire of 1995 have been infected. These dead and dying trees have created large swaths of land with dense and dry fuel loads. Madrone twig dieback is caused by the native fungus Botryosphaeria dothidea and appears to be getting worse throughout the county due to drought effects on Pacific madrones. Three additional threats to trees common to the Marin County OA include: • Bark and ambrosia beetles (Monarthrum dentiger and monarthrum scutellare), which target oak and tanoak trees. Sudden oak death may be exacerbating the effects of beetle infestations which prey on trees already weakened by this disease. • Root rot, caused by oak root fungus (Armillaria mellea), is primarily associated with oaks and other hardwoods but also attacks conifers. These fungal infestations cause canopy thinning and branch dieback and can kill mature trees. As with the beetle infestations, sudden oak death may be exacerbating the effects of root rot fungus in the county forests. • Velvet-top fungus (Phaeolus schweinitzii) is a root rot fungus affecting Douglas-fir and other conifers, with the infection typically occurring through a wound. Topography characterizes the land surface features of an area in terms of elevation, aspect, and slope. Aspect is the compass direction that a slope faces, which can have a strong influence on surface temperature, and more importantly on fuel moistures. Both elevation and aspect play an important role in the type of vegetation present, the length of the growing season, and the amount of sunlight absorbed by vegetation. Generally, southern aspects receive more solar radiation than northern aspects; the result is that soil and vegetation on southern aspects is warmer and dryer than soil and vegetation on northern aspects. Slope is a measure of land steepness and can significantly influence fire behavior as fire tends to spread more rapidly on steeper slopes. For example, as slope increases from 20 – 40%, flame heights can double and rates of fire spread can increase fourfold; from 40 – 60%, flame heights can become three times higher and rates of spread can increase eightfold. The Marin County OA is topographically diverse, with rolling hills, valleys and ridges that trend from northwest to southeast. Elevation throughout the county varies considerably, with Mt. Tamalpais’ peak resting at 2,574 feet above sea level and many communities at or near sea level. Correspondingly, there is considerable diversity in slope percentages. The San Geronimo Valley slopes run from level (in the valley itself) to near 70%. Mt. Barnabe has slopes that run from 20 to70%, and Throckmorton ridge has slopes that range in steepness from 40 – 100%. These slope changes can make fighting fires extremely difficult. In the WUI where natural fuels and structure fuels are intermixed, fire behavior is complex and difficult to predict. Research based on modeling, observations, and case studies in the WUI indicates that structure ignitability during wildland fires depends largely on the characteristics and building materials of the home and its immediate surroundings. The dispersion of burning embers from wildfires is the most likely cause of home ignitions. When embers land near or on a structure, they can ignite near-by vegetation or accumulated debris on the roof or in the gutter. Embers can also enter the structure through openings such as an open window or vent and could ignite the interior of the structure or debris in the attic. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 330 Wildfire can further ignite structures through direct flame contact and/or radiant heat. For this reason, it is important that structures and property in the WUI are less prone to ignition by ember dispersion, direct flame contact, and radiant heat. Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) Events As a result of the 2017 Northern California Wildfires, the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County and other wildfires caused by power line infrastructure, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) began initiating Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events in their service areas (including Marin County) to help prevent the start of future wildfires. PG&E will initiate a PSPS if conditions indicate potentially dangerous weather conditions in fire-prone areas due to strong winds, low humidity, and dry vegetation. During these events, PG&E will proactively turn off power in high fire risk areas to reduce the threat of wildfires. The most likely electric lines to be considered for a public safety power outage will be those that pass through areas that have been designated by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) High Fire-Threat District at elevated (Tier 2) or extreme risk (Tier 3) for wildfire. Customers outside of these areas could have their power shut off, though, if their community relies upon a line that passes through a high fire-threat area or an area experiencing severe weather. PG&E will consider numerous factors and analyze historical data to help predict the likelihood of a wildfire occurring, and closely monitoring weather watch alerts from the National Weather Service (NWS). These factors generally include, but are not limited to: • A Red Flag Warning declared by the National Weather Service • Low humidity levels, generally 20 percent and below • Forecasted sustained winds generally above 25 mph and wind gusts in excess of approximately 45 mph, depending on location and site-specific conditions such as temperature, terrain and local climate • Condition of dry material on the ground and live vegetation (moisture content) • On-the-ground, real-time observations from PG&E's Wildfire Safety Operations Center and field crews Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E) operates a total of 1,179 miles of overhead electricity transmission and distribution lines in the Marin County OA. Overhead electricity lines and poles can be damaged or downed under severe weather conditions, particularly severe wind conditions, which increases the potential for wildfire ignition. 52 percent of PG&E’s overhead distribution lines and 41 percent of its overhead transmission lines are located in CPUC- identified High-Fire Threat Districts subject to elevated or extreme fire risk. PG&E is currently planning and implementing safety measures to prevent wildfires and reduce the impacts of Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events on communities in the Marin County OA and throughout California. These measures include installing weather stations; installing high-definition cameras; installing sectionalizing devices on its overhead lines to separate the grid into smaller sections; hardening the system by installing stronger power poles, covering lines, and undergrounding lines in targeted areas; creating temporary microgrids to provide electricity during PSPS events; and enhancing existing vegetation management activities. From 2018 to July 2021, PG&E hardened three miles of overhead lines, installed 68 transmission and distribution sectionalizing devices, completed enhanced vegetation management on approximately 51 of overhead line miles, installed 28 weather stations, and installed 12 high-definition cameras in the Marin County OA. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 331 Location and Previous Occurrences In the time before the county was settled, fire was a natural part of the ecosystem. Much of the vegetation in what is now the wildlands of Marin County depended on fire to renew itself by removing old, dead fuel in order to make room for healthy new vegetation and promote the growth of native plant species. Once the land was settled, business operators, landowners, and homeowners had an interest in protecting the natural assets of Marin County and their own investments. Uncontrolled fires had already burned large tracts in the past and valuable lumber, structures, and field crops had been destroyed. A series of fires that occurred in the late 1800s prompted the organization of the first fire departments in Marin County around the turn of the century. Since then, national fire suppression policies and practices (among other factors) have contributed to the continuous growth (and overgrowth) of vegetation resulting in dangerous fuel density, or fuel loads. Combined with this fuel accumulation, people have been building homes closer and closer to wildlands, which is creating the WUI fire issues that are now present in many parts of Marin County and the country. Figure 3.171: Wildfire Ignition Points in the Marin County OA Source: Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan, 2020 Homes and structures located anywhere in and around the WUI are at a higher risk for exposure to wildland fire. Fire can spread rapidly throughout WUI areas through adjacent structures and/or vegetation, or by ember dispersion. Property owners in the WUI have a l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Legend Fire Ignition Type 0 oth er 0 Structu re e Vegeta tion e Veh ic le 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 332 responsibility to prepare their property for structure defense by providing adequate defensible space and complying with WUI building codes and ordinances. The WUI boundaries for Marin County were determined based on areas with high structure density and proximity to areas with a high density of burnable fuels. Figure 3.172: WUI Boundary in the Marin County OA Source: Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan, 2020 Approximately 60,000 acres—18% of the county’s land area—falls within the wildland urban interface (WUI) where residences (i.e., homes and structures) are intermixed with open space and wildland vegetation. Within Marin County, there are 96,195 parcels and 106,679 living units; of these living units, an estimated 69,000 units are located in the WUI. A recent assessment by the Marin County Fire Department (MCFD) revealed that these living units within the WUI are valued at $59 billion (Marin County Fire Department, 2015). Because of the mix and density of structure and natural fuels combined with limited access and egress routes, fire management becomes more complex in WUI environments. In Marin County specifically, many of the access roads within the WUI are narrow and winding and are often on hillsides with overgrown vegetation, making it even more difficult and costly to reduce fire hazards, fight wildfires, and protect homes and lives in these areas. To quantify the potential risk from wildfires, CalFire has developed a Fire Hazard Severity Scale which uses three criteria in order to evaluate and designate potential fire hazards in wildland l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 333 areas. The criteria are fuel loading (vegetation), fire weather (winds, temperatures, humidity levels and fuel moisture contents) and topography (degree of slope). In 2022, CalFire began the process of updating the 2007 map of the Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ) statewide. It is projected that the Very High Fire Severity Zone (VHFSZ) will grow significantly in the Mount Tamalpais watershed area between Mill Valley and Muir Beach, and in the area of Inverness and Marshall. Most of western Marin County that used to fall under the Moderate Fire Severity Zone (MFSZ) is projected to change to High Fire Severity Zone (HFSZ). As the new FHSZ maps are still pending final approval as of 2023, the Marin County OA has been advised by CalFire to use the 2007 FHSZ maps as current for wildfire analysis in the 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP. The updated FHSZ maps planned for final approval in 2024 will be used for wildlife analysis in the 2028 Marin County OA MJHM. Figure 3.17 3 shows the current 2007 map of the FHSZ for Marin County. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 334 Figure 3.173: Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ) in the Marin County OA Source: Marin OEM, CALFIRE l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ DfllctOI Marin County / Full County Fi re Severity EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT / ( 1 I I / / / r----_J --·-----,./ Legend Fire Severity Zone Very High High Moderate Non-Wi ld land /Non- Urban C Urban Unzoned 10 1 \ p 115 0 Marin County OEM / Woody Ba ker-Cohn emai l: OEM _GIS @Ma rinCo unty.org Date Prin ted : 09/27/23 121 County of Marin, california State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA, County of Marin, (alifornia State Porks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS 12 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 335 Figure 3.174: Marin County Wildfire Susceptibility to Critical Facilities Source: Marin County OEM l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ I \ > ( I I I / I • Dams Military and Ovll Defense Installations Communication Facilities Electric Power Fadlitles Wastewater Facil ities • Water Supply Facilities • • Legend Airports Emergency Operations Center.; Fire Stations Hospitals and Medical Fadhties Police / She<iff Stations SChools Marin Cou nty Fire DIIICIOI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 101 • • • • • • Fir e Severity Zone Very High High Moderate Non-Wildland/Non- Urban ,---, Urban Unzoned • • • 0 2 .5 Mari n Cou nty OE M / Wo ody Baker-Co hn emai l: OEM _GIS @Ma rin County.org Date Printed: 10/3 0/23 12 21 37 N County of Marin, californ ia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Technologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA, County of Marin, califomia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Ga rmin, SafeGraph, FAO, METI/NASA, USGS, Bu reau of Land Management, EPA, NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 336 As of 2007, several unincorporated communities in Marin County lie in moderate to very high wildfire hazard severity zones, which are shown below. Figure 3.175 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around Lagunitas, Forest Knolls and San Geronimo. Figure 3.175: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Lagunitas, Forest Knolls, San Geronimo and Woodacre Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 Figure 3.176 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around Woodacre. Figure 3.176: Fire Hazard Severity Zones –Woodacre Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ '\ \; " ( \ l ,,. , I ., ·--, \ ' ' ·-.... ·, .,\ '-, ,/ 'I f ·-"" ✓- _ ......... \. i J I 1-.1.- °""'"1<,w.~ ....,,,. ·"·• .I \ ! / I , I \ ·--,/ I '\ \ l \ ' \ i \ " \ ', ... 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 337 Figure 3.177: Fire Hazard Severity Zones –Woodacre Area Source: CalFire l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / Wood acre Area Fire • omc101 EMERGENCY -MANAGEMENT . Forest Knol l s agunitas , r San Geron i mo _,..,..., ,,. -,_ l.1,,...--i_.t Ga ry Giacomin i Open Space Legend e Dams Electric Power Facilities Em ergen cy Operations Centers Fire Stations Schoo ls Fire Severity Zone Very Hig h -High Moderate Sir Francis ora\<e eivd I _,.,.~.,.wood acre ,> 0' m r=:-7 7 C ,.,__ l Meadow Country Club l _J J ,..1-,,,~__, C ) IC 0 .3 0.7 '1 -" U 3 ••-===-••111111111111!1!,Miles , .... ,,.,,nr Marin County OEM / WoodyL Bak1e r-Cohn email : OEM_GIS @MarinCo unty.org 1 Date Printed : 10/30/23 ,..,.r ~ N le '-i Co un ty of Marin, Ca lifornia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmi n, SafeGraph, Geo Technolog ies, I nc, METJ/NASA, USGS, Bureau of La nd Ma nagement, EPA, NPS, USDA ' 7----" J 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 338 Figure 3.178 shows fire hazard severity zones in and around Nicasio. Figure 3.178: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Nicasio Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ tw 'c~ ~~ l. ... r~,-, .,., c- .-11, ii Y.-·I r.,-,:.- ,, i,,,:, .J F..: ..al I. ~,•tr,.11 I ,h·., EJA.hull -.1 • 1r,1r .-, l,h,n -I 11 ..,. 1'1-••• L L.L .. , \.'iJIIC!J Rd 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 339 Figure 3.179 shows the fire hazard severity zone in and around Tocoloma. Figure 3.179: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Tocoloma Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 1 ~<?U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ ... r,rn ,ir:i,1 -... 'I.:.iJJ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 340 Figure 3.180 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around Olema. Figure 3.180: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Olema Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 Figure 3.181 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around Point Reyes Station. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ --~----~--------~--~,----------------------------, .I I \ \ \ \ \ f 1 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 341 Figure 3.181: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Point Reyes Station Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ ' 1 ¥:-,Y' [llu~Ro«" j ' ': .tflp~(I~ ~·,#-YJ-=-~.~ • ,, I ,, \ " j I I \ .,.,. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 342 Figure 3.182 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around Inverness Park. Figure 3.182: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Inverness Park Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN r j a ~ I .1 l arrinelli Ranch (GGNRA) ~ "\ ~~~ .. ':S'C"r. '.l;G' 1,. \ ~ ~~ q_ °"~i,: "o'-'" 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 343 Figures 3.183 and 3.184 show the fire hazard severity zones in and around Inverness. Figure 3.183: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Inverness Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN . . . . . --e a ~ ,:/..,. ---------~ /\) E ,, 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 344 Figure 3.184: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Inverness Area Source: CalFire l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / Woodacre Area Fire Seahaven e omc101 EMERGENCY • MANAGEMENT Millerton Com mun ica ti on Faci li t ies Fire Stations Schoo ls Legend Invern ess ,6 Hig h Modera t e Non -Wi ld land/Non - Urban • Tamales Bay And Misc 0 0.2 0.4 Tc _ (Fish 0 .8 M iles ,ma, s Bay ,:;alt. ser Bi Fire Severity Zone -Very Hi gh Marin Cou nty OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM_GIS@MarinCounty.org ~ Date Printed: 10/30/23 N County of Marin, California State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, Geo Technologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA, County of Marin, cali forn ia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garm in , SafeGraph, GeoTechnolog ies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 345 Figure 3.185 shows the fire hazard severity zone in and around the Marconi/Marshall Area. Figure 3.185: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Marconi/Marshall Area Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ CI\I \ ( \'~:;!~ \ \ ~,\ ... ,, ... \ __ ~ MmcorJ can tt:trence C'"..t:1"1tmSlah, Hl e:.ooc Po rk ~'- • ~ '} ··' c,,,~G 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 346 Figure 3.186 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around the McDonald/Blakes Landing area. Figure 3.186: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – McDonald/Blakes Landing Area Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 7 \ ,. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 347 Figure 3.187 shows the fire hazard severity zone in and around the Tomales area. Figure 3.187: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Tomales Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ I j l J I CA1 __ ,..,,. ' "' i.:... t..:' I f _., !J I 1 f 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 348 Figure 3.188 shows the fire hazard severity zone in and around the Dillon Beach area. Figure 3.188: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Dillon Beach Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ '··-·· ···-·····--·······--·' .. Suiji:1"1:al H5rn ' ' '~'if~,u~II I , ~ ___ ..... 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 349 Figure 3.189 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around the Dogtown area. Figure 3.189: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Dogtown Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ B o J111 a s R cl ll <>ll n_.• lagoon 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 350 Figure 3.190 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around the Bolinas area. Figure 3.190: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Bolinas Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ . .,-.. i~t,,_ ... · ..... __ ., m~ Bofinas lagoon Open Space Preserve Solinas to9oot1 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 351 Figure 3.191 and Figure 3.192 shows the fire hazard severity zone in and around the Stinson Beach area. Figure 3.191: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Stinson Beach and Surrounding Area Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 Figure 3.192: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Stinson Beach Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 1 ~<?U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~~-~:~----~ ""--............... io....... ......... \ ,£_;;,i:;CJ11~<1.(.,~->, q/.._f, \ •••M••o,"' 'i i 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 352 Figure 3.193 shows the fire hazard severity zone in and around the Muir Beach area. Figure 3.193: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Muir Beach Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Muir Beach ..... ~Drive 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 353 Figure 3.194 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around Tamalpais Valley and Marin City. Figure 3.194: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Tamalpais Valley and Marin City Source: CalFire l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County / Mill Valley Area Fire OIRCf 01 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ea ows Corte Madera Mill Valley Tamalpais Valley Tamalp a is Valley Legend Comm un ica tion Facilities Wastewater Faci lit ies Airports Em ergency Ope rations Centers Fi re Stations Hospitals and Medical Fa ciliti es Police/ Sher iff Stations Schools Fire Severity Zone Very High High Moderate Non-Wildland/Non- Urban LJ Urban Un zoned 0 , a.itt Marin City 0 0 .3 0.6 1.1 Miles Mari n County OEM / Woody Bake r-C oh n ema il: OEM _Gl5@MarinCounty.org Date Pri nted: 10/30/23 d. Cou nty of Ma rin, california State Parks, Esri, HERE, Ga rm in, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologles, Inc, METJ/NASA, USGS, Bu reau of land Ma nagement, EPA, NPS, USD 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 354 Figure 3.195 shows the fire hazard severity zone in and around the unincorporated area of the Tiburon Peninsula, including Paradise Cay. Figure 3.195: Fire Hazard Severity Zone – Unincorporated Tiburon Peninsula and Paradise Cay Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN 'ng Mountain Open Space Preserve a ~ .,."i,,·'· .. ,-~---,--.\ u, :~ /--.,._.-: . . J Aln~1~•~;1.o,n ~~ V ~,,.._,_ ..... , lll"charris 6tt .. \ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 355 Figure 3.196 shows the fire hazard severity zone in and around San Quentin. Figure 3.196: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – San Quentin Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 Figure 3.197 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around Lucas Valley and Marinwood. Figure 3.197: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Lucas Valley and Marinwood Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N·TY OF ~ARIN e I- [ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 356 Figure 3.198 shows the fire hazard severity zones in and around the unincorporated area of Bel Marin Keys and Loma Verde. Figure 3.198: Fire Hazard Severity Zone – Bel Marin Keys and Loma Verde Source: CalFire l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ idian Vall+?y College of Marin Indian Valley Campus -Marin Community College District Electric Power Facilities Emergency Operations Centers Fire Stations Marin County / Novato South Fire Fire Severity Zone Very High e omcto1 EMERGENCY • MANAGEMENT 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 357 Figure 3.199 shows the fire hazard severity zone around San Antonio and the Marin County airport. Figure 3.199: Fire Hazard Severity Zone – San Antonio & Marin County Airport Source: CalFire, 11/27/23 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN l ! _,,.,.,, a ~ GJamrnli State Hiscoric Par~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 358 Figure 3.200 shows the number of state and federal declared wildfire disasters in Marin County in relation to the rest of California. Figure 3.200: Historic Wildfires in the Marin County OA 1919 - 1995 Source: Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan Throughout its history, Marin County has experienced many wildland fires. Figure 3.201 shows a map of large fires that have occurred in Marin County’s unincorporated WUI. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 359 Figure 3.201: Historic Wildfires in the Marin County OA 1973 - 2020 Source: Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan 9/14/1904 – A wildfire burned 15,000-20,000 acres on Bolinas Ridge. 10/1917 – A wildfire burned 2,000 acres on a ridge near the unincorporated community of Inverness. 7/8/1913 – A wildfire started by a train or a discarded cigarette burned over 1,500 acres on Mount Tamalpais and threatened the City of Mill Valley. 9/17/1923 – September 1923 Wildfire A wildfire started in the unincorporated community of Ignacio and threatened or destroyed thousands of homes around the unincorporated communities of Ignacio, Woodacre, Lagunitas, and Bolinas Ridge. Thirty-five homes were destroyed in Woodcare, leaving only five left standing. Large areas of timber and grazing land burned. Damage was estimated at $250,000. 9/27/1945 – The Mill Fire Two brush fires merged together near the unincorporated community of Lagunitas and quickly spread across Bolinas Ridge coming within a quarter mile of the unincorporated community of Stinson Beach. The unincorporated community of Woodacre and the Town of Fairfax were threatened, with over 3,000 residents put on alert for evacuation. Over 18,000 acres burned. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 360 9/1965 – Chileno Valley Fire Over 8,000 acres burned and several ranches were destroyed in a wildfire. 10/3-10/16/1995 – The Vision Fire A wildfire started from an illegal campfire burned over 12,000 acres in Point Reyes National Seashore and destroyed 48 structures in the unincorporated community of Inverness. Figure 3.202: 1995 Vision Fire Source: Richard Blair 10/13/2008 – Angel Island Fire A human -caused wildfire burned over 300 acres on Angel Island in Angel Island State Park. No structures were destroyed. 8/27/2019 – Spirit Fire A wildfire started by arson burned 16 acres above the Sprit Rock Meditation Center near Woodacre. 10/24/2019 – Muir Fire A 58 -acre wildfire burned between the unincorporated communities of Muir Beach and Stinson Beach, closing Highway 1. 8/17/2020 – Woodward Fire A wildfire burned over 700 acres in a remote area of Point Reyes National Seashore, causing evacuation warnings in the unincorporated community of Olema. 7/14/2021 – Dolcini Fire A wildfire burned over thirty acres west of Novato. 9/6/2021 – Lucas Valley Wildfire A wildfire started by a lawn mower burned over 40 acres, prompting evacuations in parts of the unincorporated communities of Lucas Valley and Marinwood. As part of the CWPP, Ignition data for all authorities having jurisdiction were acquired and analyzed for 2002 through 2011 to evaluate ignition trends within the county. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 361 Impacts Potential losses from wildfire include human life, structures and other improvements, natural and cultural resources, quality and quantity of water supplies, cropland, timber, and recreational opportunities. Urban wildfires often occur in the WUI, where development has expanded into the rural areas. A wildfire in the WUI can result in major losses of property and structures. Also of significant concern to the planning area are the secondary impacts associated with a large burn area. Wildfires can have devastating effects on watersheds through loss of vegetation and soil erosion, which may impact the County by changing runoff patterns, increasing sedimentation, reducing natural and reservoir water storage capacity, and degrading water quality. These problems can be compounded by climate conditions. Although the physical damages and casualties arising from wildland-urban interface fires may be severe, it is important to recognize that they also cause significant economic impacts by resulting in a loss of function of buildings and infrastructure. In some cases, the economic impact of this loss of services may be comparable to the economic impact of physical damages or, in some cases, even greater. Economic impacts of loss of transportation and utility services may include traffic delays/detours from road and bridge closures and loss of electric power, potable water, and wastewater services. Threats to healthcare, hazmat releases, ash deposition on properties (including schools), need for proper cleanup, and high costs of hazardous waste cleanup. Both environmental and economic losses occur from contamination of properties which grow produce, both for personal sustenance and commercial distribution. Wildfires and subsequent smoke can have a negative impact on tourism and visitor use in the County. Wildfires can also cause major damage to power plants and power lines needed to distribute electricity to operate facilities. Urban structural fires release toxic pollutants into air and water, cause injuries and deaths, mental/behavioral health issues, economic loss consequences of loss/damage to residences or places of business, displacement, cleanup costs to communities and governments, potential increased healthcare utilization due to injuries or chronic disease exacerbations, long term public health impacts including injuries to the response personnel. There is also a mitigation opportunity. Even though smoke detectors are required in CA, there is no data on how many residential units in CA do not have a smoke detector, whether they have functioning smoke detectors, and whether residents are aware where to place them and how to maintain them. Conducting a rapid community assessment using established methods is one way to gather this information, which could be considered a mitigation action. Poor air quality can result from wildfires. Sensitive individuals including the very young, elderly and those with respiratory conditions such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at the greatest risk of developing aggravated symptoms such as coughing, watery and itchy eyes, headache, scratchy throat, and difficulty in breathing. PSPS events can have numerous impacts on residents who rely on electricity for cooling their homes, powering water pumps, keeping critical medical equipment operating, and who have other critical needs. These impacts can become exacerbated during a period of higher temperatures, when community members are unable to cool their homes. PSPS events sometimes occur with little to no warning, and with no clear timeframe on how long the event may last, which presents a challenging situation for community members to be able to prepare for prolonged power outages. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 362 Extent and Probability Wildfire threat can be defined as the result of an analysis of potential fire behavior and the likelihood of fire to occur relative to the assets (or communities) at risk. Recent research indicates that higher summer temperatures will likely increase fire severity in California. Future changes in fire frequency and severity are difficult to predict; however, regional climate change associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations could alter large weather patterns and produce conditions conducive to extreme fire behavior. A warmer climate will bring drier winters and higher spring temperatures. Combined with drought conditions, this leads to drier soils in early summer, drier vegetation, and an increase in the number of days in the year with flammable fuels, all which further raise the likelihood of fires. The western U.S. is likely to continue its trend toward warmer and drier conditions, on average, with warmer spring and summer temperatures, reduced snowpack and earlier snowmelts, and longer, drier summer fire seasons. Models and observations, including reconstructions of fire and climate in the past; trends over the last few decades; and predictive models, predict that warming and drying conditions are likely to cause increased fire activity in the future. Table 3.20: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Wildfire Jurisdiction Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Marin County Highly Likely Significant Severe High High 16.00 City of Belvedere Highly Likely Limited Extreme Medium High 15.00 Town of Corte Madera Occasional Significant Extreme High High 15.00 Town of Fairfax Highly Likely Significant Severe Medium Medium 14.00 City of Larkspur Likely Significant Extreme High High 16.00 City of Mill Valley Likely Extensive Extreme High High 17.00 City of Novato Likely Limited Weak Medium Medium 10.00 Town of Ross Likely Extensive Severe Medium High 15.00 Town of San Anselmo Likely Extensive Extreme High High 17.00 City of San Rafael Likely Significant Severe High Medium 14.00 City of Sausalito Occasional Limited Moderate High Medium 11.00 Town of Tiburon Highly Likely Significant Severe High High 16.00 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 363 Bolinas Public Utility District Occasional Extensive Severe High Medium 14.00 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Likely Negligible Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 North Marin Water District Occasional Extensive Extreme Medium High 15.00 Southern Marin Fire District Occasional Extensive Severe High Medium 15.00 Table 3.20: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Wildfire Source: Profiled Jurisdictions and Districts Vulnerability While the Cal Fire FHSZ maps are useful in examining potential fire hazard severity at the state level, the underlying data and methods used to develop the FHSZ maps can be improved upon by using local (and more recent) fuel characteristics and improved fire modeling methods. The Cal Fire FHSZ maps also do not take into account local perspectives and priorities regarding communities at risk and areas of concern. To improve upon the currently available state-level fire hazard assessment information, an independent hazard, asset, risk assessment was performed to help identify and prioritize areas within the county that are potentially at a high threat from wildfire based on more recent fuels data, advanced modeling techniques, and local input. The assessment was performed by modeling potential fire behavior and the probability or likelihood that an area will burn given an ignition. Next, the fire modeling output was combined with areas of concern and assets at risk. Composite maps were generated indicating relative potential fire hazards throughout the county. Assets at risk are defined as structures and resources that can be damaged or destroyed by wildland fire. Assets in the Marin County OA include real estate (homes and businesses), all types of healthcare facilities, emergency communication facilities, transportation and utility infrastructure, watersheds, protected wildlands, tourist and recreation areas, and agricultural lands. In addition to providing a framework for protecting community members and providing for firefighter safety, the California Fire Plan identifies the following assets warranting consideration in pre-fire planning: watersheds and water; wildlife; habitat; special status plants and animals; scenic, cultural and historic areas; recreation; rangeland; structures; infrastructure; and air quality. There are approximately 111,000 living units in the Marin County OA with a median home value of approximately $1 million. As many homes in the county are located in the WUI, if a major wildland fire were to result in the loss of many homes, it could have a short-term negative impact on the Marin County OA’s property tax base. The Mt. Tamalpais watershed supplies central and southern Marin County with 75% of their fresh water. Given the area’s seasonal rainfall, any major wildfire impacting the heavily forested watershed will result in major silting and subsequent degradation of water quantity and quality in l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 364 the watershed. These watershed lands—as well as the lands managed by Marin County Open Space District (MCOSD), state parks, and NPS—are largely contiguous. They harbor several endangered, threatened, and special-status species, including the coho salmon and northern spotted owl. The area is also part of a major migrating bird flyway and nesting area. The Marin County OA is also a major tourist destination. Major parks within Marin County include California State Parks (Mt. Tamalpais, Samuel P. Taylor, and China Camp), NPS’s Golden Gate National Recreation Area (GGNRA), Muir Woods National Monument, and Point Reyes National Seashore. The Point Reyes National Seashore and Muir Woods National Monument together attract 3.5 million visitors annually. The GGNRA, a majority of which resides within Marin County, attracts an additional 14.9 million visitors per year and contributes an estimated $365.2 million annually to the economy. A major wildfire affecting any of these parks could have negative impacts on the local economy for years after the event. The Marin County OA’s agricultural land base includes nearly 137,000 acres of privately owned agriculturally zoned land and 32,000 acres of federally-owned land that is leased to agricultural operators. Agricultural operations include livestock and livestock products; aquaculture; field crops; fruit, vegetable, and nursery crops. The gross value of all agricultural production was approximately $101 million in 2014. To help protect people and property from potential catastrophic wildfire, the National Fire Plan identifies communities that are at high risk of damage from wildfire. These high-risk communities identified within the WUI were published in the Federal Register in 2001. In California, CAL FIRE has the responsibility for managing the list. With California's extensive WUI situation, the list of communities extends beyond just those adjacent to Federal lands; there are 1,329 communities currently on the California Communities at Risk List. The Marin County OA has 23 of these at-risk communities. A countywide assessment of the wildland fire threat undertaken by CAL FIRE revealed that nearly 313,000 acres (approximately 82% of the total land area of the county) are ranked as having moderate to very high fire hazard severity zone ratings. Using the methodology described in the CWPP, a series of models of the hazards, assets, and risks were completed. One model was the average fire season flame length, with lengths above 8 feet possibly exhibiting the more extreme fire behavior and be relatively more hazardous from a fire suppression perspective. Rate of spread is defined as the rate of forward spread of the fire head expressed in feet per minute. The higher the rate of spread, the more difficult a fire is to suppress. A composite map of the flame length, rate of spread, and population density for the average fire season scenario is shown in Figure 3.203; orange and red show areas where more extreme fire behavior is likely given an ignition. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 36 5 Fi g u r e 3. 20 3 : P o p u l a t i o n D e n s i t y , F l a m e L e n g t h , a n d R a t e o f S p r e a d f o r t h e A v e r a g e F i r e S e a s o n in t h e M a r i n C o u n t y O A So u r c e : M a r i n C o m m u n i t y W i l d f i r e P r o t e c t i o n P l a n , 2 0 2 0 0 2.5 Legend 5 t Miles Composite Map Average Fire Season 10 11111 Very High Flame Le"glh, Rate of Spread , & Pop . Densi ty == High Fl ame Lengtli, Rat e of Spread, & Pop. Densrty 1111 Moderate Flame Len,gth, Rate •Of Spre.id, & Pop. Oensi UG .Pf .. "'" ,n- h ·)> ~ ;;,c -< --< z~ Cf) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 366 Figure 3.204 shows areas of concern for the average fire season in the OA where fuel reduction and hazard mitigation efforts might be focused. Figure 3.204: Areas of Concern for the Average Fire Season in the Marin County OA Source: Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan, 2020 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Areas of Concern Relative Ranking Average Fire Season -V<>ryhigh Hig h -Mod<>.rat<>. N A 0 2.5 5 Moles 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 367 Figure 3.205 shows areas of concern for the average fire season in the OA where fuel reduction and hazard mitigation efforts might be focused. Figure 3.205: Areas of Concern for the Extreme Fire Season in the Marin County OA Source: Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan, 2020 Unincorporated rural areas within the OA include the coastal communities of Muir Beach, Stinson Beach, and Bolinas; communities near Tomales Bay including Olema, Point Reyes Station, Inverness, Inverness Park, Marshall, Tomales, and Dillon Beach; and rural areas in the interior valleys including Nicasio, Lagunitas, Forest Knolls, San Geronimo, and Woodacre. These communities are primarily situated within or adjacent to the WUI, with moderate to dense concentrations of structures. The Marin County OA has approximately 60,000 acres of WUI adjacent to 200,000 acres of watershed. Response times in these communities present significant challenges to keeping fires from directly impacting the communities and sub divisions (especially those within the SRA) as emergency fire access and evacuation egress is limited by narrow, winding roads lined with dense vegetation. Figure 3.206 shows the WUI boundary and population density in the OA. l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ Areas of Concern Relative Ranking Extreme Fire Conditions -VeryHigh High -Moderate N A 2.S 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 368 Figure 3.206: WUI Boundary and Population Density in the Marin County OA Source: Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan, 2020 In the Marin County OA, cul-de -sacs generally service new housing developments and most of the smaller canyons, valleys, and hillsides. Some planned unit developments are served by privately- maintained roads, which create access issues (i.e., narrow paved widths and limited on-street parking). According to California Fire Code specifications, roadways that are considered hazardous in terms of fire access and protection are those with • less than 20 feet of unobstructed paved surface and 13.6 vertical feet; • dead-ends longer than 800 feet, and; • cul-de-sac diameter less than 68 feet. Driveways that are less than 16 feet wide or that do not have adequate turnaround space are also considered hazardous. A large number of roadways and driveways in many of the Marin County OA’s communities fall into one or more of the above categories. Several communities in the Marin County OA lie partially or completely in a High and/or Very High FHSZ and could have a higher susceptibility to wildfire. They are highlighted below. While most of Lagunitas, Forest Knolls San Geronimo and Woodacre lie in a Moderate FHSZ, the surrounding foothills lie in a High FHSZ. There are hundreds of homes in the High FHSZ along with the Woodacre PG&E substation that could have higher susceptible to wildfire. There are hundreds of homes and numerous businesses and critical facilities including the San l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Legend G'l5 ll'A.I I Bounda ry Population Density j2010 total populati on /sq . mile) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 369 Geronimo Community Center, San Geronimo Valley Elementary School, Lagunitas Elementary School, the Woodacre Fire Station and the Heartwood Charter School that lie in the Moderate FHSZ and could be susceptible to wildlife. The area west and north of Inverness Park primarily lies in a High FHSZ. There are dozens of homes in this area that could have higher susceptibility to wildfire. There is a residential area north of Inverness Park with several dozen homes that lie in a Very High FHSZ and could have an even higher susceptibility to wildfire. Most of the core of Inverness lies in a High FHSZ but the outlying areas north lie in a Very High FHSZ. There are dozens of homes in both these areas that could have higher susceptibility to wildfire. The Inverness Fire Department, Inverness Elementary School and a Marin Emergency Radio Authority (MERA) antenna site lie in a High FHSZ area and could have higher susceptibility to wildfire. Populations from Inverness to Inverness Park are particularly susceptible to wildfire as there is essentially only one main road, Sir Francis Drake Boulevard, that could be used in an evacuation and in only one direction (south). Most of Dogtown and the northern end of Bolinas lie in a High FHSZ. Several residences, the Bolinas PG&E substation and the Bolinas-Stinson Elementary School lie in this area and could have higher susceptibility to wildfire. Most of Bolinas, where there are dozens of homes, the Bolinas Community Center, the Bolinas Stinson School, the MERA antenna sites at Horseshoe Hill and Bolinas, the Bolinas Community Health Center and the Woodrat Water Treatment Plant lie in a Moderate FHSZ and could be susceptible to wildfire. While most of Stinson Beach is in a Moderate FHSZ, the surrounding area to the south is in a High FHSZ. Several residences and businesses are in this area and could have higher susceptibility to wildfire. The downtown core of Stinson Beach along with the Stinson Beach Fire Department Stations #1 and #2 lie in a Moderate FHSZ just outside of the High FHSZ and could be susceptible to wildfire. The western end of Stinson Beach along Dipsea Road and Seadrift Road also lies in a Moderate FHSZ and includes dozens of homes that could be susceptible to wildfire. Most of Muir Beach lies in a High FHSZ. This area includes dozens of homes, several businesses and the Muir Beach Community Center that have higher susceptibility to wildfire. The Muir Beach Fire Department lies just outside the High FHSZ in a Moderate FHSZ and could be susceptible to wildfire. Most of Tamalpais Valley and Marin City lie in a Very High FHSZ. There are thousands of homes and buildings in this area of Tamalpais Valley, along with a MERA antenna site, the Marin Horizon School, the Southern Marin Fire Protection District Station #4 and the Tamalpais Valley Elementary School that could have a very high susceptibility to wildfire. Populations in this area are particularly susceptible to wildfire due to the presence of numerous cul de sacs and windy secondary roads that could impede an evacuation. Numerous homes and critical facilities, including the Marin City Health and Wellness Center, the Bayside Martin Luther King Jr. Academy, and the Marin City Fire department lie in the Very High FHSZ of Marin City and could have a very high susceptibility to wildfire. The Very High FHSZ in Tamalpais Valley and Marin City is bordered to the east by a High FHSZ. Hundreds of homes and numerous businesses along with the Commodore Center Heliport lie in the High FHSZ and could have higher susceptibility to wildfire. The Mount Tamalpais School lies in the Moderate FHSZ and could be susceptible to wildfire. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 370 A small area in the north of Strawberry lies in a High FHSZ with a larger area that lies in a moderate FHSZ. There are several homes in this area that could have higher susceptibility to wildfire. Most of the unincorporated area of the Tiburon Peninsula lie in a High FHSZ. There are dozens of homes in this area that could have higher susceptibility to wildfire. The eastern boundary of the peninsula lies in a Moderate FHSZ and has several homes tha t could be susceptible to wildfire. The far northern and western side of Kentfield lie in a High FHSZ and are bordered to the immediate west by a Very High FHSZ. There are dozens of homes, numerous businesses, the Kentfield Hospital and part of the College of Marin that lie in this area and that have higher susceptibility to wildfire. A smaller part of Kentfield and part of Greenbrae and California City lie in a Moderate FHSZ. There are several homes along with part of the College of Marin that lie in this area and that could be susceptible to wildfire. All of San Quentin, including San Quentin State Prison, lies in a Moderate FHSZ and could be susceptible to wildfire. While all of Sleepy Hollow lies in a Moderate FHSZ, it is bordered to the east, west, and south by areas of a High FHSZ. Dozens of homes along with the San Domenico School, Sleepy Hollow Villa Medical Facility and the Hidden Valley School that lie in this area could be susceptible to wildfire. Most of Los Ranchitos lies in a High FHSZ with a small part in a moderate FHSZ. There are dozens of homes in this area that could be susceptible to wildfire. Most of Lucas Valley and Marinwood lie in a High FHSZ. There are hundreds of homes and critical facilities, including several medical facilities, Lucas Valley Elementary School, the Marin County Juvenile Complex, Lucas Valley School, the Marinwood Fire Department, Miller Creek School that lie in this area and have a high susceptibility to wildfire. There is a small section of Marinwood with several homes and part of the Mary E. Silveria Elementary School that lie in a Very High FHSZ and that could have an even higher susceptibility to wildfire. The far eastern end of Lucas Valley, which consists of several homes, lies a Moderate FHSZ and could be susceptible to wildfire. All of the Saint Vincent area, which includes the Saint Vincent School, lies in a Moderate FHSZ and could be susceptible to wildfire. The Saint Vincent area is surrounded to the west, north and south by a High FHSZ. Most of San Venetia is not in a FHSZ but the eastern foothills of the San Pedro Mountain Open Space Preserve are in a Moderate FHSZ. There are numerous homes and medical facilities along with the Marin School that lie in this area and that could be susceptible to wildfire. Part of the unincorporated community south of China Camp State Park lies in a Moderate FHSZ. There are dozens of homes in this area that could be susceptible to wildfire. The southwest side of San Pedro Hill lies in a High FHSZ with a small part lying in a Moderate FHSZ. The McNear Brickyard and other industrial facilities lie in this area and could have an even higher susceptibility to wildfire. The unincorporated residential area west of Novato lies mostly in a High FHSZ. There are hundreds of homes in this area that could have a high susceptibility to wildfire. The Loma Verde area, which includes dozens of homes and the Loma Verde Elementary School, also lies in a l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 371 High FHSZ and could have a high susceptibility to wildfire. This area is bordered to the south by a Very High FHSZ in the City of Novato. Most of the Black Point-Green Point area lies in a High FHSZ. There are dozens of homes, several businesses, and the Novato Fire Protection District Station #62 that lie in this area and could have a high susceptibility to wildfire. A smaller section south of the Rush Creek Marsh Wildlife Area lies in a Moderate FHSZ. There are numerous homes and businesses in this area that could be susceptible to wildfire. Numerous unincorporated communities in Marin County include all or part of a Moderate FHSZ and have no High or Very High FHSZ’s including Point Reyes Station, Olema, Nicasio, Tocoloma, Marshall, Tomales, Dillon Beach, Alto, Paradise Cay, and Bel Marin Keys. Hundreds of homes, numerous businesses, and several critical facilities lie in these communities and could be susceptible to wildfire. Critical facilities in these communities susceptible to wildfire include the Nicasio Fire Department, the Nicasio Elem entary School, the Tocoloma PG&E substation, the MERA antenna site at Mt. Barnabe, the Olema PG&E substation, the Point Reyes National Seashore Headquarters and Fire Department, the Point Reyes Fire Station, the Marin County Sherrif’s Substation at Point Reyes, the CalTrans Point Reyes Maintenance Station, West Marin Elementary School, Tomales High School, Tomales Elementary School, Tomales Fire Station, MERA antenna site at Tomales and several medical facilities. The Marin County Airport, the community of San Antonio, and the unincorporated County along the border of Sonoma County all lie in a Moderate FHSZ. There are numerous rural homes, businesses and buildings along with critical facilities including the Hicks Valley Fire Station, Laguna School, Lincoln School, Stafford Junction PG&E substation, MERA antenna site at Coyote Peak that lie in this area and could be susceptible to wildfire. Marin County populations within the above-listed communities that are most vulnerable to the effects of wildfire include: • Low-income households • Households in poverty • Persons living on single access roads • Mobile homeowners • Persons without access to transportation or telecommunications • Outdoor workers • Healthcare workers, first responders, and protective service occupations • Houseless population • Children • Persons with disabilities • Persons with chronic health problems, • Senior community members, and • Persons living alone. See the Marin County CWPP for additional information on the susceptibility of the Marin County OA to wildfire. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 372 Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change can lead to an increase in wildfire events. Climate change has been a key factor in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the western United States. Changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions. Increased drought, and a longer fire season are boosting these increases in wildfire risk. Figure 3.207: Trends in the Annual Number of Large Wildfires in the United States Source: Fourth Climate Change Assessment As summer conditions in Northern California become hotter and drier due to climate change, the occurrence and severity of wildfires will only increase. The Marin County OA is particularly susceptible to these future impacts of climate change on wildfire, as the OA’s climate has generally been wet enough historically to avoid major wildfires. Extreme heat events and high wind events could cause electrical systems to become overloaded and fail, sparking wildfires. An increase in wildfires as a result of climate change could lead to more significantly burned areas that could contribute to debris flows after a significant storm event. Future development in the WUI throughout the Marin County OA will expose more people and property to the impacts of a potentially significant wildfire. The growing number of people in the Marin County OA WUI can increase risk to life, property and public health as a result of a wildfire. 3.4 ADDITIONAL HAZARDS PROFILED Additional non-natural hazards were identified as having some potential to impact the planning area. The sections below provide short profiles of each of these hazards, including qualitative discussion of their potential to impact Marin County. No formal risk assessment of these hazards was performed, and no mitigation initiatives have been developed to address them. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ g All Reg ions ~ \.,,,.",L~,1ln~1l11J 1984 1992 2000 2008 i ~ f """"'""''"c'"''' "'" o o J'.j" ill 1984 1992 2doo 2do8 f ; f ••• Pla lrutol,mbia "'"" ~ 0 1984 1992 2doo 2do8 o Basin and Range I:~ 0 1....1;9;=84==;:::, =1:::;:9'9=2=;==20::;::'o=o ::::;==20;:::108= : f ••••'""" c,11 rom1, 0 19'84 ' 1g92 ' 2doo ' 2do8 =~ Rocky Mounta ins 0 1~ I 19192 20'o0 2008 ~ r rth,m P•to, ~ 19184 1992 2000 20'o8 -_f ~f o,th•m POio, e>o I I I I I •. I , .'.:l 1984 1992 2000 2008 :, ~. -:;_/' --1 ~ ! (Mlro,a-N,w ""''° Mo,mt••• •, ·I• ,,~ , ~ o - ":-: • 1 -:;~~ :1i9;:::84::::;:::=1::;:9'9=2::::=20:o:0=2=0:08- 1.,.=. ,. al 0 .... Warm Deserts 1992 2000 2008 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 373 3.4.1 AIR POLLUTION Air pollution is contamination of the indoor or outdoor environment by any chemical, physical or biological agent that modifies the natural characteristics of the atmosphere. Household combustion devices, motor vehicles, industrial facilities and forest fires are common sources of air pollution. Pollutants of major public health concern and their effects on health and the environment include: Ozone (O3) • Respiratory symptoms • Worsening of lung disease leading to premature death • Damage to lung tissue • Crop, forest and ecosystem damage • Damage to a variety of materials, including rubber, plastics, fabrics, paint and metals PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter) • Premature death • Hospitalization for worsening of cardiovascular disease • Hospitalization for respiratory disease • Asthma-related emergency room visits • Increased symptoms, increased inhaler usage PM10 (particulate matter less than 10 microns in aerodynamic diameter) • Premature death & hospitalization, primarily for worsening of respiratory disease • Reduced visibility and material soiling Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) • Lung irritation • Enhanced allergic responses Carbon Monoxide (CO) • Chest pain in patients with heart disease • Headache • Light-headedness • Reduced mental alertness Sulfur Oxides (SOX) • Worsening of asthma: increased symptoms, increased medication usage, and emergency room visits l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 374 Lead • Impaired mental functioning in children • Learning disabilities in children • Brain and kidney damage Hydrogen Sulfide (H2S) • Nuisance odor (rotten egg smell) • At high concentrations: headache & breathing difficulties Sulfate • Same as PM2.5, particularly worsening of asthma and other lung diseases • Reduces visibility Vinyl Chloride • Central nervous system effects, such as dizziness, drowsiness & headaches • Long-term exposure: liver damage & liver cancer Visibility Reducing Particles • Reduced airport safety, scenic enjoyment, road safety, and discourages tourism Toxic Air Contaminants (about 200 chemicals have been listed as toxic air contaminants) • Cancer • Reproductive and developmental effects • Neurological effects Outdoor and indoor air pollution cause respiratory and other diseases and are important sources of morbidity and mortality. The World Health Organization (WHO) shows that almost all of the global population (99%) breathe air that exceeds WHO guideline limits and contains high levels of pollutants, with low- and middle-income countries suffering from the highest exposures. Air quality is closely linked to the earth’s climate and ecosystems globally. Many of the drivers of air pollution (i.e. combustion of fossil fuels) are also sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change–fueled wildfires and extreme heat are adding to the challenges of protecting public health. Policies to reduce air pollution, therefore, offer a win-win strategy for both climate and health, lowering the burden of disease attributable to air pollution, as well as contributing to the near- and long-term mitigation of climate change. Mold and allergens from trees, weeds, and grass are also carried in the air, are exacerbated by climate change, and can be hazardous to health. Though they aren’t regulated and are less directly connected to human actions, they can be considered a form of air pollution. Pollen allergies are worsening because of climate change. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 375 135 million people or four out of ten U.S. residents live in counties with unhealthy levels of air pollution. Air monitoring shows that over 90 percent of Californians breathe unhealthy levels of one or more air pollutants during some part of the year. In the U.S., the Clean Air Act has been a crucial tool for reducing air pollution since its passage in 1970. The most effective way to control air pollution is to speed up the transition to cleaner fuels and industrial processes. By switching over to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, maximizing fuel efficiency in vehicles, and replacing more and more gasoline-powered cars and trucks with electric versions, air pollution can be limited at its source while also curbing the global warming that worsens so many of its worst health impacts. Air Quality Index (AQI) & Health Millions of people live in areas where air pollution can cause serious health problems. Local air quality can affect our daily lives. Like the weather, it can change from day to day. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA ) developed the Air Quality Index, or AQI, to make information available about the health effects of the five most common air pollutants, and how to avoid those effects. The AQI is an index for reporting daily air quality. It tells you how clean or polluted your air is, and what associated health effects might be a concern for you. The AQI focuses on health affects you may experience within a few hours or days after breathing polluted air. EPA calculates the AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act: ground-level ozone, particle pollution (also known as particulate matter), carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. For each of these pollutants, EPA has established national air quality standards to protect public health. Ground-level ozone and airborne particles are the two pollutants that pose the greatest threat to human health in this country. https://www.airnow.gov/ https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=aqi_brochure.index The purpose of the AQI is to help you understand what local air quality means to your health. To make it easier to understand, the AQI is divided into six categories: Note: Values above 500 are considered Beyond the AQI. Follow recommendations for the Hazardous category. Additional information on reducing exposure to extremely high levels of particle pollution is available here. Each category corresponds to a different level of health concern. The six levels of health concern and what they mean are depicted in the figure below. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 376 Figure 3.208: Air Quality Index Concern Levels Source: AirNow.gov In the Bay Area, a certain amount of air pollution comes from industrial sources, such as refineries and power plants. But a greater percentage of harmful air emissions comes from cars and trucks, construction equipment, and other motor vehicles. In the wintertime, the largest single source of air pollution is residential wood burning. Ozone and fine particle pollution, or PM2.5, are the major regional air pollutants of concern in the San Francisco Bay Area. Ozone is primarily a problem in the summer, and fine particle pollution in the winter. Along the Marin County coast and in southern Marin County, clean air from the Pacific Ocean helps to keep air pollution at a minimum. Elsewhere in the Marin County OA, ozone only rarely becomes a concern, but the hilly terrain and colder winter temperatures can trap PM2.5 near the surface, resulting in air quality that exceeds health standards. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) is the official air pollution control agency for the San Francisco Bay Area, which includes Marin County. They have issued numerous poor air quality advisories for Marin County over the years as a result of wildfires. 3.4.2 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE/ UTILITY DISRUPTION Critical Infrastructure and utility disruption is defined as the disruption of one or more of the physical structures, facilities, networks and other assets which provide services that are essential to the social and economic functioning of a community or society. Examples of infrastructure disruptions include building collapses, water main breaks, gas pipe ruptures, steam pipe explosions, communication system failures and related types of events. These disruptions can be caused by natural disasters such as a landslide or earthquake, by man-made disasters such as a train or major vehicle crash, or by acts of sabotage including terrorism. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN~ Air Quality Index l~vcls of Health concern Good Moderate Unhealthy Very Unhe.stthy Ha23rdous Numerical Value Oto50 51 to 100 Meaning sk. cons dered sat!mctory :ind .:i r pc,llu on poses lfttl• or no Air qu3lity is 3ccept3ble; however, for some pollut3nts there m3y be 3 moder3te he3 l th concern for 3 very sm3II number of people who ;ire unusu3lly sensiti ve to .1ir pollution . 151 to 200 Everyone m3y beg in to experlen~ he.111h effects; members of sensitive groups may experience more senous heatth effects . EH!@i+E Hnlth alert everyone m;sy· experience more serious hea~ effects. 301 to 500 Health_wamlngs of emergency conditions. The entire population Is more likely to be .Jffected. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 377 Climate change is expected to heavily affect infrastructure through heatwaves, floods and droughts. Figure 3.20 8 shows critical infrastructure across the Marin County OA. Figure 3.209: Marin County OA Critical Infrastructure Source: Marin County The availability of critical infrastructure and utilities are crucial for timely recovery after a disaster induced by natural hazards. Maintaining or quickly restoring road access, drinking water supply or healthcare can save lives. Very often disasters are exacerbated by poor infrastructure. Preparing critical infrastructures, as well as the population, for long-term outages due to natural hazards is crucial. When critical infrastructure and utilities have a disruption, it can disproportionately affect socially vulnerable populations. For individuals stuck at home and who rely on timely medication or electrical devices, a situation can quickly become critical if road access and power supplies are damaged. The increasing complexity, interdependency and scale of infrastructure networks can make them more difficult to protect. While technological developments have improved the quality of essential services, this progress itself creates new vulnerabilities. Beyond power outages caused by storms, wildfires and PSPS events, the Marin County OA has had no significant critical infrastructure or utility disruptions. Other critical infrastructure and utility disruptions across California and the United States have occurred, however, and could similarly occur in the Marin County OA including the 2011 Southwest power failure, the 2010 San Bruno PG&E gas line explosion, and the 2007 I-35 bridge collapse in Minneapolis, Minnesota. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ CB1tfomit1 ctnc , rn nsm 1H1en l 1n1P.s -220 . ?67 kV Smtlller than 110 kV -110 -161\N -34 5-SOOIN Marin County OA C ri tica l Infrast ructure -UtJ1 ty. PGE Mai10 r Gae Line [-1 Man n C1bos fTc,,,,,ns (OUIU ne) ~-;.. i>~ ..... ,.,, ::>"~ et 10 1,577,791 ,. 20~rn ~rnl O!l,OUW\,ueaQ.C....l'ltt,:,,i"""""Cdi.rni.~ ,.~ &\. 1-E:Rt. ~ &11:0,~ f"o\O, ~ AA"-OSOS.6-<14t.aNM1<1~~NPS s.-... m, 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 378 3.4.3 CYBER THREATS A cyber threat is any circumstance or event with the potential to adversely impact organizational operations (including mission, functions, image, or reputation), organizational assets, or individuals through an information system via unauthorized access, destruction, disclosure, modification of information, and/or denial of service. A cyber threat is also the potential for a threat-source to successfully exploit a particular information system vulnerability. Cyber threats include: Malware Malware — or malicious software — is any program or code that is created with the intent to do harm to a computer, network or server. Malware is the most common type of cyberattack, mostly because this term encompasses many subsets such as ransomware, trojans, spyware, viruses, worms, keyloggers, bots, cryptojacking, and any other type of malware attack that leverages software in a malicious way. Types of malware include: Ransomware: In a ransomware attack, an adversary encrypts a victim’s data and offers to provide a decryption key in exchange for a payment. Ransomware attacks are usually launched through malicious links delivered via phishing emails, but unpatched vulnerabilities and policy misconfigurations are used as well. Fileless Malware: Fileless malware is a type of malicious activity that uses native, legitimate tools built into a system to execute a cyber attack. Unlike traditional malware, fileless malware does not require an attacker to install any code on a target’s system, making it hard to detect. Spyware: Spyware is a type of unwanted, malicious software that infects a computer or other device and collects information about a user’s web activity without their knowledge or consent. Adware: Adware is a type of spyware that watches a user’s online activity in order to determine which ads to show them. While adware is not inherently malicious, it has an impact on the performance of a user’s device and degrades the user experience. Trojan: A trojan is malware that appears to be legitimate software disguised as native operating system programs or harmless files like free downloads. Trojans are installed through social engineering techniques such as phishing or bait websites. Worm: A worm is a self-contained program that replicates itself and spreads its copies to other computers. A worm may infect its target through a software vulnerability or it may be delivered via phishing or smishing. Embedded worms can modify and delete files, inject more malicious software, or replicate in place until the targeted system runs out of resources. Rootkit: Rootkit malware is a collection of software designed to give malicious actors control of a computer network or application. Once activated, the malicious program sets up a backdoor exploit and may deliver additional malware. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 379 Mobile Malware: Mobile malware is any type of malware designed to target mobile devices. Mobile malware is delivered through malicious downloads, operating system vulnerabilities, phishing, smishing, and the use of unsecured WiFi. Exploit: An exploit is a piece of software or data that opportunistically uses a defect in an operating system or an app to provide access to unauthorized actors. The exploit may be used to install more malware or steal data. Scareware: Scareware tricks users into believing their computer is infected with a virus. Typically, a user will see scareware as a pop-up warning them that their system is infected. This scare tactic aims to persuade people into installing fake antivirus software to remove the “virus.” Once this fake antivirus software is downloaded, then malware may infect your computer. Keylogger: Keyloggers are tools that record what a person types on a device. While there are legitimate and legal uses for keyloggers, many uses are malicious. In a keylogger attack, the keylogger software records every keystroke on the victim’s device and sends it to the attacker. Botnet: Botnet is a network of computers infected with malware that are controlled by a bot herder. The bot herder is the person who operates the botnet infrastructure and uses the compromised computers to launch attacks designed to crash a target’s network, inject malware, harvest credentials or execute CPU-intensive tasks. Denial and Distributed Denial of Service Attacks A Denial-of-Service (DoS) attack is a malicious, targeted attack that floods a network with false requests in order to disrupt business operations. In a DoS attack, users are unable to perform routine and necessary tasks, such as accessing email, websites, online accounts or other resources that are operated by a compromised computer or network. While most DoS attacks do not result in lost data and are typically resolved without paying a ransom, they cost the organization time, money and other resources in order to restore critical business operations. The difference between DoS and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks has to do with the origin of the attack. DoS attacks originate from just one system while DDoS attacks are launched from multiple systems. DDoS attacks are faster and harder to block than DOS attacks because multiple systems must be identified and neutralized to halt the attack. Phishing Phishing is a type of cyberattack that uses email, SMS, phone, social media, and social engineering techniques to entice a victim to share sensitive information — such as passwords or account numbers — or to download a malicious file that will install viruses on their computer or phone. Types of phishing include: Spear Phishing: Spear-phishing is a type of phishing attack that targets specific individuals or organizations typically through malicious emails. The goal of spear phishing is to steal sensitive information such as login credentials or infect the targets’ device with malware. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 380 Whaling: A whaling attack is a type of social engineering attack specifically targeting senior or executive employees with the purpose of stealing money or information, or gaining access to the person’s computer in order to execute further cyberattacks. SMiShing: Smishing is the act of sending fraudulent text messages designed to trick individuals into sharing sensitive data such as passwords, usernames and credit card numbers. A smishing attack may involve cybercriminals pretending to be your bank or a shipping service you use. Vishing: Vishing, a voice phishing attack, is the fraudulent use of phone calls and voice messages pretending to be from a reputable organization to convince individuals to reveal private information such as bank details and passwords. Spoofing Spoofing is a technique through which a cybercriminal disguises themselves as a known or trusted source. In so doing, the adversary is able to engage with the target and access their systems or devices with the ultimate goal of stealing information, extorting money or installing malware or other harmful software on the device. Types of spoofing include: Domain Spoofing: Domain spoofing is a form of phishing where an attacker impersonates a known business or person with fake website or email domain to fool people into the trusting them. Typically, the domain appears to be legitimate at first glance, but a closer look will reveal subtle differences. Email Spoofing: Email spoofing is a type of cyberattack that targets organizations by using emails with forged sender addresses. Because the recipient trusts the alleged sender, they are more likely to open the email and interact with its contents, such as a malicious link or attachment. ARP Spoofing: Address Resolution Protocol (ARP) spoofing or ARP poisoning is a form of spoofing attack that hackers use to intercept data. A hacker commits an ARP spoofing attack by tricking one device into sending messages to the hacker instead of the intended recipient. This way, the hacker gains access to your device’s communications, including sensitive data. Code Injection Attacks Code injection attacks consist of an attacker injecting malicious code into a vulnerable computer or network to change its course of action. Types of code injection attacks include: SQL Injection: A Structured Query Language (SQL ) Injection attack leverages system vulnerabilities to inject malicious SQL statements into a data-driven application, which then allows the hacker to extract information from a database. Hackers use SQL Injection techniques to alter, steal or erase application's database data. Cross-Site Scripting (XSS): Cross Site Scripting (XSS) is a code injection attack in which an adversary inserts malicious code within a legitimate website. The code then launches as an infected script in the user’s web browser, enabling the attacker to steal sensitive information or impersonate the user. Web forums, message boards, blogs and other websites that allow users to post their own content are the most susceptible to XSS attacks. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 381 Malvertising: Malvertising attacks leverage many other techniques to carry out the attack. Typically, the attacker begins by breaching a third-party server, which allows the cybercriminal to inject malicious code within a display ad or some element thereof, such as banner ad copy, creative imagery or video content. Once clicked by a website visitor, the corrupted code within the ad will install malware or adware on the user’s computer. Identity-Based Attacks Identity-based attacks are attacks on the behavior of an individual and are extremely hard to detect. When a valid user’s credentials have been compromised and an adversary is masquerading as that user, it is often very difficult to differentiate between the user’s typical behavior and that of the hacker using traditional security measures and tools. Types of identity- based attacks include: Kerberoasting: Kerberoasting is a post-exploitation attack technique that attempts to crack the password of a service account within the active directory where an adversary masquerading as an account user with a service principal name requests a ticket, which contains an encrypted password, or Kerberos. Man-in-the -Middle (MITM) Attack: A man-in-the -middle attack is a type of cyberattack in which an attacker eavesdrops on a conversation between two targets with the goal of collecting personal data, passwords or banking details, and/or to convince the victim to take an action such as changing login credentials, completing a transaction or initiating a transfer of funds. Pass-the-Hash Attack: Pass the hash (PtH) is a type of attack in which an adversary steals a “hashed” user credential and uses it to create a new user session on the same network. It does not require the attacker to know or crack the password to gain access to the system. Rather, it uses a stored version of the password to initiate a new session. Silver Ticket Attack: A silver ticket is a forged authentication ticket often created when an attacker steals an account password. A forged service ticket is encrypted and enables access to resources for the specific service targeted by the silver ticket attack. Credential Stuffing: Credential stuffing attacks work on the premise that people often use the same user ID and password across multiple accounts. Therefore, possessing the credentials for one account may be able to grant access to other, unrelated account. Password Spraying: The basics of a password spraying attack involve a threat actor using a single common password against multiple accounts on the same application. This avoids the account lockouts that typically occur when an attacker uses a brute force attack on a single account by trying many passwords. Brute Force Attacks: A brute force attack uses a trial-and-error approach to systematically guess login info, credentials, and encryption keys. The attacker submits combinations of usernames and passwords until they finally guess correctly. Insider Threats Insider threats are internal actors such as current or former employees that pose danger to an organization because they have direct access to the company network, sensitive data, and l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 382 intellectual property (IP), as well as knowledge of business processes, company policies or other information that would help carry out such an attack. Internal actors that pose a threat to an organization tend to be malicious in nature. Some motivators include financial gains in exchange for selling confidential information on the dark web, and/or emotional coercion using social engineering tactics. On the other hand, some insider threat actors are not malicious in nature but instead are negligent in nature. To combat this, organizations should implement a comprehensive cybersecurity training program that teaches stakeholders to be aware of any potential attacks, including those potentially performed by an insider. Supply Chain Attacks A supply chain attack is a type of cyberattack that targets a trusted third-party vendor who offers services or software vital to the supply chain. Software supply chain attacks inject malicious code into an application in order to infect all users of an app, while hardware supply chain attacks compromise physical components for the same purpose. Software supply chains are particularly vulnerable because modern software is not written from scratch: rather, it involves many off-the-shelf components, such as third-party APIs, open-source code and proprietary code from software vendors. DNS tunneling DNS Tunneling is a type of cyberattack that leverages domain name system (DNS) queries and responses to bypass traditional security measures and transmit data and code within the network. Once infected, the hacker can freely engage in command-and -control activities. This tunnel gives the hacker a route to unleash malware and/or to extract data, IP or other sensitive information by encoding it bit by bit in a series of DNS responses. DNS tunneling attacks have increased in recent years, in part because they are relatively simple to deploy. Tunneling toolkits and guides are even readily accessible online through mainstream sites like YouTube. IoT-Based Attacks An IoT attack is any cyberattack that targets an Internet of Things (IoT) device or network. Once compromised, the hacker can assume control of the device, steal data, or join a group of infected devices to create a botnet to launch DoS or DDoS attacks. Given that the number of connected devices is expected to grow rapidly over the next several years, cybersecurity experts expect IoT infections to grow as well. Further, the deployment of 5G networks, which will further fuel the use of connected devices, may also lead to an uptick in attacks. The Marin County OA has had several cybersecurity issues. More than $300,000 was stolen by fraudulent electronic transfers at the Marin County Civic Center, unwittingly approved by county financial gatekeepers in 2018. Marin County’s computer network has been hacked into and breached at least five times between July 2017 and August 2018. In addition, more than half of Marin’s cities — Corte Madera, Fairfax, Larkspur, Novato, Sausalito and Tiburon — have had their cybersecurity compromised including: Town of Fairfax: In July 2016, Fairfax was victimized by a ransomware attack. An employee received an email with a malware program attached; and when the employee clicked on the attachment, the town’s servers were infected and became unusable. No ransom was paid, but the town was forced to use a previous backup in order to rebuild its systems. The Town lost data l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 383 for the day of the attack, since it had not yet been backed up. The Town suffered a similar breach in October 2014. City of Novato: In 2017, Novato fell victim to a phishing attack. A city employee received an email purporting to be from a senior city official, requesting a wire transfer of funds. The employee initiated the wire transfer to the account specified by the hacker. The breach was reported to local law enforcement and the FBI. After the attack, the City strengthened its email security and implemented mandatory employee training to reduce its vulnerability to email- based attacks. City of Sausalito: In January 2018, Sausalito was the victim of a phishing attack in which a fake email, purporting to be from the city manager, was sent to a city employee. This employee complied with the fake email’s request for copies of the W-2 tax forms of all of the city’s employees and councilmembers. As a result, all these individuals were exposed to the risk of identity theft. The Sausalito breach was reported to the FBI. For two years after the attack, the city provided free credit monitoring services to all employees, at a cost of approximately $27,000. Nevertheless, three employees had fraudulent state tax returns filed in their names, although the attempts were unsuccessful because taxing authorities had been alerted. Town of Tiburon: In 2019, Tiburon suffered a ransomware attack, also initiated by a fake email attachment opened by an employee. No ransom was paid, but the Town’s systems were largely disabled for more than three days. Most of its data was recovered using a backup, but the town discovered that one of its applications was not being backed up properly, so the town needed to rebuild much of that data by hand from paper records. Town of Corte Madera: In 2019, Corte Madera suffered a direct attack. During a brief moment when a vendor intentionally disabled the town’s firewall for system updates, hackers were able to access its network and disable it using ransomware. No ransom was paid, but the system had to be restored from a backup. City of Larkspur: In August 2019, Larkspur’s network was compromised in a direct attack. Four of its computers were reportedly accessed from one of the public computers in the Larkspur library. It is unknown what data may have been accessed. Having a comprehensive cybersecurity strategy is vital. Organizations should secure their critical areas of risk, know their threats, be ready to respond quickly to a threat, monitor the criminal underground through hidden messaging platforms and dark web forums, utilize technology to stop sophisticated threats, and build a comprehensive cybersecurity training program. 3.4.4 OIL SPILLS Oil spills can happen anywhere oil is drilled, transported, or used. They can happen in many different ways including when pipelines break, oil tanker ships sink, or drilling operations go wrong. Consequences to ecosystems and economies can be felt for decades following a large oil spill. Thousands of oil spills occur in U.S. waters each year. Most of these spills are small but can still cause damage, especially if they happen in sensitive environments, like beaches and wetlands. Large oil spills can be significant disasters. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 384 Where oil is spilled, what kinds of plants, animals, and habitats are found there, and the amount and type of oil, among other things, can influence how much harm an oil spill causes. Generally, oil spills harm ocean life in two ways: Fouling or oiling: Fouling or oiling occurs when oil physically harms a plant or animal. Oil can coat a bird’s wings and leave it unable to fly or strip away the insulating properties of a sea otter’s fur, putting it at risk of hypothermia. The degree of oiling often impacts the animal’s chances of survival. Oil toxicity: Oil consists of many different toxic compounds. These toxic compounds can cause severe health problems like heart damage, stunted growth, immune system effects, and even death. Our understanding of oil toxicity has expanded by studying the effects of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Wildlife recovery, cleaning, and rehabilitation is often an important part of oil spill response. However, wildlife is difficult to find and catch, oil spills can happen over wide areas, and some animals (like whales) are too big to recover. Unfortunately, it’s unrealistic to rescue all wildlife impacted during oil spills. The U.S Coast Guard is primarily responsible for cleaning up oil spills, while NOAA provides scientific support to make decisions that protect people and the environment. There are different equipment and tactics that trained experts can use to contain or remove oil from the environment when a spill occurs: Booms are floating physical barriers to oil, which help keep it contained and away from sensitive areas, like beaches, mangroves, and wetlands. Skimmers are used off of boats and can “skim” oil from the sea surface. In situ burning, or setting fire to an oil slick, can burn the oil away at sea, and chemical dispersants can break up oil slicks from the surface. Cleanup activities can never remove 100% of the oil spilled, and scientists have to be careful that their actions don’t cause additional harm. Figure 3.209 shows the largest oil spills affecting United States waters from 1969-2017. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 385 Figure 3.210: Largest Oil Spills Affecting U.S. Waters 1969-2017 Source: NOAA The Marin County OA has been impacted by oil spills. In 2007, an oil tanker colided with one of the San-Francisco Oakland Bay Bridge towers. It spilled 53,569 gallons of bunker fuel into San Francisco Bay. The tidal mechanics of San Francisco Bay caused the spill to spread rapidly, affecting a large area of the California North Coast, including the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, Ocean Beach and the Marin Headlands. More than 50 public beaches were closed, including Crissy Field, Fort Point, Baker Beach, China Beach and Kirby Cove. Beaches as far south as Pacifica, California were closed due to the spill. According to Federal and State natural resource trustee agencies, the spill is estimated to have killed 6,849 birds. Several fisheries in the Bay Area may have been affected by the spill, and the crab and sport fishing seasons were postponed by several weeks. As of the end of November 2007, State biologists had tested more than 1100 samples of fish, mussels and Dungeness crab in San Francisco Bay and coastal waters outside the Golden Gate. The tests found unsafe levels of contaminants in mussels from Rodeo Beach and the Berkeley pier. An estimated 1,079,900 recreational use days were also lost as a result of the spill. This includes general shoreline use as well as recreational fishing and boating. Total monetary damages were estimated at more than $70 million for oil spill cleanup. In 1971, a spill occurred in the San Francisco Bay when two tankers collided and spilled 800,000 gallons of oil, threatening significant sensitive habitat inside and outside the Bay, including the Bolinas Lagoon. On March 6, 2021, a steel shackle connecting a tugboat to the American Challenger, a 90-foot decommissioned vessel, failed in Bodega Bay, causing the American Challenger to drift into shore. A Coast Guard crew was monitoring it at the time and reported the commercial vessel grounded north of Dillon Beach, off Pt Reyes. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Million Gallons Spilled Exxon Valdez -1989 Largest Oil Spills Affecting U.S. Waters 134 .0 MG 01:iepwater Horizon 75.0 MG Tank Barge UMTB 283 -1988 • • 1969 -Present 50 .0 MG 10 .0MG 1.0 MG 0.5MG Tenyo Maru -1991 USS General M.C. Meigs -1972 Ashland Petr~leum -1988 \ Kalamazoo River -2010 \ 5 -1985 Even relatively small oil spills can cause maj o r harm , depending on location, season , environmental se nsitivity, and type of oil. The following spills are exa mples : MN Selendang Ayu -2004. AK MfT Athas I -2004 -NJ /PA MN Cosco Busan -2007 -CA MN New Cariss a -1999 -OR Hawaiian Patriot -1977 • N A Oregon Standard -1971 Puerto Rican -1964 Santa Barbara -1969/ Sansinena -1976 Citgo Refinery -2006 Eagle otome -2010 Apex Barges -1990 Burmah Agate -1979 N~r: 9 :a~:~: ~::/, Tank Barge OM932 -2008 Hurricane Katrina -2005 Westchester -2000 Chevron Ma in Pass Block41 -1970 Cape -1996 go Merchant -1976 kensack Estuary Ta nk Farm , llen Oil Company -1976 ro Savannah -1990 Texaco Oklahoma -1971 Reedy River -1996 Amazon Venture -1986 Deepwater Horizon• 2010 Epic Colocotronis -1975 / Vista Bella -1991 lxtoc 1 -1979 . . Hurricane Hugo-1989 Santa Augusta -1971 Zoe Colocotrom -1973 MN Zanms -197 4 eek Slip -1978 Moms J. Berman -1994 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 386 Officials representing the Marin County Sheriff’s Office of Emergency Services, the U.S. Coast Guard, the EPA, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and state Office of Spill Prevention and Response, responded to the scene and attempted to contain the oil and other hazardous materials leaking from the vessel, ensuring debris and toxic substances did not stray into the surrounding Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary. About $2.3 million was spent on the initial response and costs related to the stranding, including oil booms, environmental assessments, shoreline surveys and Coast Guard costs, according to the Office of Spill Prevention and Response. The Environmental Protection Agency, Region 9, paid an estimated $1 million for the dismantling and disposal of the vessel. Additional oil spills have impacted other areas of California: In 1910, The Lakeview Gusher created the largest accidental oil spill in history, lasting 18 months and releasing an estimated 9 million barrels of crude oil. It occurred due to an eruption of hydrocarbons from a pressurized oil well in the Midway-Sunset Oil Field in Kern County, California. In 1969, a blowout on an offshore platform off the coast of Santa Barbara, California, spilled over four million gallons of oil. In 2021, a major oil spill occurred in Orange County, California, originating from an underwater pipe connected to the Elly platform about 4.5 miles offshore near Long Beach. The U.S. Coast Guard estimated that spill covered 8,320 acres of the ocean's surface, spilling approximately 24,696 gallons of oil. Two of the most significant marine oil spills in American history, each of which was the largest oil spill into American waterways at the time, include: In 1989, the Exxon Valdez oil tanker ran aground in the Prince William Sound in Alaska, spilling over 11 million gallons of oil. On April 20, 2010, an explosion occurred on the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 people. Before it was capped three months later, approximately 134 million gallons of oil had spilled into the ocean making it the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. That is equivalent to the volume of over 200 Olympic-sized swimming pools. While there is currently no oil drilling offshore of Northern California, including Marin County, the potential exists for new drilling to occur in the area in the future. Onshore drilling also does not occur in the Marin County OA. Currently, an oil spill affecting Marin County would most likely emanate from a ship accident as there are no oil pipelines in the Marin County OA. Environmental, economic, and recreational impacts to the Marin County shoreline could be significant depending on the location of the spill and the tides. 3.4.5 PANDEMIC A pandemic is a disease outbreak that spreads across countries or continents. It affects more people and takes more lives than an epidemic. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 387 An epidemic is when an infectious disease spreads quickly to more people than experts would expect. It usually affects a larger area than an outbreak. An outbreak is when an illness happens in unexpected high numbers. It may stay in one area or extend more widely. An outbreak can last days or years. Sometimes, experts consider a single case of a contagious disease to be an outbreak. This may be true if it’s an unknown disease, if it’s new to a community, or if it’s been absent from a population for a long time. The number of lives lost in a pandemic depends on: • How many people are infected. • How severe of an illness the virus causes (its virulence). • How vulnerable certain groups of people are. • Prevention efforts and how effective they are. The California Department of Public Health has identified several diseases that could contribute to an outbreak, epidemic or pandemic in California: Animal Transmitted These are diseases that are transmitted to humans by domestic or non-domestic animals. Examples include: • Brucellosis (undulant fever) • Campylobacteriosis • Cat scratch disease • Cryptosporidiosis • Escherichia coli (E. coli) • Giardiasis • Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) • Plague • Psittacosis (ornithosis, parrot fever) • Q Fever • Rabies • Ringworm • Salmonellosis • Toxoplasmosis • Tularemia Bloodborne Viruses, bacteria and parasites that can be carried in blood and cause disease are known as bloodborne pathogens. Transmission of these diseases may be from direct blood contact, needle sticks, intravenous drug use, sexual behavior, insects or other vectors. Examples include: • Tularemia • Ebola • Hepatitis C • Malaria Community-Acquired Infections l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 388 Community-acquired infections are infections that are contracted outside of a hospital (or are diagnosed within 48 hours of admission) without any previous health care encounter. Examples include: • Adenovirus • Bed Bugs • Body Lice • Campylobacteriosis • Conjunctivitis (pink eye) • Common cold viruses • Enterovirus, non-polio • Hand, foot, and mouth disease • Head Lice (‘ukus) • Impetigo • Influenza (flu) • Invasive Group A Streptococcus (necrotizing fasciitis) • Legionnaires’ Disease/Pontiac Fever Foodborne Foodborne diseases can be spread when food becomes contaminated with fecal matter containing bacteria, viruses, or parasites. This contamination can happen at a farm, manufacturing plant, restaurant, or home. Foodborne diseases usually result in gastrointestinal illness, which can include symptoms such as diarrhea, vomiting, nausea, stomachache, and fever. People who are ill with a foodborne disease can give the infection to others, so proper hygiene and hand washing practices are essential to limit the spread of disease. People experiencing gastrointestinal symptoms should not prepare or handle food for others. Examples include: • Amebiasis • Angiostrongyliasis (rat lungworm) • Anisakiasis • Botulism • Brucellosis (undulant fever) • Campylobacteriosis • Cholera • Ciguatera fish poisoning • Cryptosporidiosis • Cyclosporiasis • Escherichia coli (E. coli) • Giardiasis • Listeriosis • Norovirus • Salmonellosis • Scombroid • Shigellosis • Tularemia • Typhoid Fever • Vibriosis • Yersinia enterocolitica l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 389 Influenza Influenza is an infectious viral disease of birds and mammals commonly transmitted through airborne aerosols such as coughing or sneezing. Symptoms are chills, headache, fever, nausea, muscle pain and occasionally pneumonia. Flu pandemics in the late 19th and 20th centuries include: • Russian flu • 1918 Spanish flu • Asian flu • Hong Kong flu • A/H1N1 or the swine flu. Avian flu strains H5N1 and H7N9 caused human deaths but did not escalate to pandemic proportions. Mosquito-Transmitted Mosquitoes found in California are capable of spreading many diseases to humans and animals. Examples include: • Malaria • Yellow fever • Dengue • Chikungunya • Zika • Canine heartworm • West Nile virus • Other encephalitis viruses Historically, California has experienced local transmission of malaria, western equine encephalomyelitis, St. Louis encephalitis, California encephalitis viruses, canine heartworm, and West Nile virus. Canine heartworm and West Nile virus continue to have frequent local transmission in California, with West Nile virus human cases numbering in the hundreds every year. With increased global travel, the potential exists for the introduction or reintroduction of many mosquito-borne diseases into California. Waterborne Diseases Diseases caused by micro-organisms transmitted in water can be spread while bathing, washing, drinking water, or eating food exposed to contaminated water. • Cholera • Giardiasis • Legionnaires’ Disease /Pontiac Fever • Leptospirosis • Typhoid Fever Sexually Transmitted Disease l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 390 HIV/AIDS, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis are the predominant sexually transmitted infections. • Chlamydia • Genital warts • Gonorrhea • Hepatitis A, B, and C • Herpes • Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) • Human papillomavirus • Syphilis • Zika Respiratory Viruses Respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza-like illness. They can also cause the common cold. The virus that caused the Covid-19 pandemic is a respiratory virus. People at high risk (those with certain underlying conditions, the elderly, the very young, and pregnant women) can develop severe illness that results in hospitalization or death. The best protection is proper hygiene and avoiding contact with sick individuals. The best way for those who are infected to protect others is to cover their nose and mouth when sneezing and coughing, use good hand hygiene, and stay home from work or school. • Adenovirus • Coronaviruses • Influenza • Parainfluenza • Parvovirus B19 • Respiratory Syncytial Virus • Rhinovirus (Common Cold) • Measles • Pertussis (whooping cough) Marin County, like the rest of the United States, was included in the March 2020 FEMA major disaster declaration for the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Since March 2020, Marin County Public Health collected and analyzed information about COVID-19 impact in every community. Figure 3.210 shows Marin County Covid-19 hospitalizations and Figure 3.211 shows Marin County Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations by demographic. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 391 Figure 3.211: Marin County Covid -19 Hospitalizations Source: California Department of Public Health Figure 3.212: Marin County Covid-19 Hospitalizations by Demographics Source: California Department of Public Health l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ LJ l 0 .6% c::]20.2% ~21.8% =:::]19.3% 0 8 .0% 0 6 .1% 10 .6% 10 .0% 4 .3% 10 .0% 10.8% 1 3.3% c:::]20.8% ■7 .7% c:::J 20.S% -18.2% 42.0% 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 392 The 1918 Spanish Flu also had impacts on the Marin County OA. San Rafael city officials took action before the disease hit the rest of Marin County. All unnecessary public gatherings in social halls and fraternal lodge were prohibited in San Rafael. Schools remained open but theaters were closed. The City of San Rafael passed an ordinance authorizing the arrest of people who failed or refused to wear gauze masks when appearing on the streets. Masks were considered a necessity and ultimately the rest of the Marin County OA public was mandated to wear them. By October 24, 1918, all Marin County schools had been closed and churches and lodges were ordered to postpone all planned meetings. The first death in Marin from the flu was reported that same day “when Seth Morby, of Kentfield was taken.” The Hotel Rafael in San Rafael was used to house flu patients. A resurgence of flu cases across the Marin County OA occurred throughout much of 1919. Several additional deaths occurred and emergency measures had to be reinstated before being lifted again later in the year. Climate Change Climate change is expected to have an impact on health hazards. Projected increases in hot days and extreme heat events will increase the risk of heat-associated deaths. Air quality impacts and drier conditions may exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular conditions through greater concentrations of pollution and allergens. Prolonged droughts from climate change can also affect the quality of drinking water (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2020). The California 4th Climate Assessment finds that Bay Area public health is threatened by a number of climate related changes, including more extreme heat events, increased air pollution from ozone formation and wildfires, longer and more frequent droughts, and flooding from sea level rise and high-intensity rain events. Heat waves pose increased health risks due to urban heat islands and lack of local experience and cooling infrastructure (air conditioning) in bayside cities. These risks are compounded for low-income communities. 3.4.6 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS Vehicle Accident A vehicle accident occurs when a motor vehicle collides with another vehicle or object. Vehicle collisions can result in mass fatalities and property damage. A number of factors contribute to the risk of a collision including vehicle design, speed of operation, road design, road environment, driver skill, and impairment due to drugs or alcohol. There are numerous different types of vehicle collisions; of primary concern are the ones that result in a mass fatality and/or a hazmat incident. These incidents can occur due to a single vehicle accident, such as with a tour bus or a truck carrying hazardous materials, or due to a multi-vehicle accident. Multi-vehicle collisions generally occur on high capacity and high-speed routes such as freeways. The only interstate in the Marin County OA is Interstate 580 which connects Marin County to Contra Costa Coun ty via the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge. There are several major state highways that traverse the Marin County OA including Highways 101, 1 and 37. See figure 3.21 2 for a map of roadways in the Marin County OA. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 393 Figure 3.213: Marin County Highways Source: Marin Convention and Visitors Bureau Multi-vehicle accidents usually occur in low-visibility conditions. Marin County often experiences fog which can hamper visibility. Road hazards, including black ice and landslides, can cause multi-vehicle accidents in good visibility. On roads with high traffic volume, a chain-reaction crash can occur when motorists are unable to stop. Determining the cause of multi-vehicle accidents is often difficult. Multi-vehicle accidents are particularly deadly due to the heightened risk of injury and chances of a fire occurring. Multi-vehicle accidents can also overwhelm local responding units, making rescue more difficult. Accidents in remote areas can hamper the l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ s ,nd -rt1J's Tule EIII Drak~s &y ~ Pacific Ocean Gin Camp@ WU<ltat (~/"...., -· - e O•c::::::i-==2,..s ___ s MIies SONOMA COUNTY ~ Mann •@iMIM'lhii San Pablo Bay San rancisco Bay gel sland tate Park f.'::on BlhrBeldJPR"E-SID.,cl0<--10-1 ~ O ~S.F. 1) ~-------------------------------------.!!!!~End!!1'..,_ ft univ,~itvnf-'\ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 394 ability to receive medical help. A mass fatality and/or hazmat incident could occur on any one of Marin County’s major highways. In March 2006, a freak blizzard with two to four inches of slush caused a 28-car pileup on Highway 101 at the then Waldo Tunnel. Two people were killed and more than a dozen injured, and the northbound lanes were closed for 11 hours. The pileup scattered wreckage 350 to 400 feet along the road. In December 2022, a Marin Transit bus overturned in rainy weather in San Rafael but there was only one person aboard. Train Accident A train accident is a violent and destructive crash involving a train. There are several different kinds of train accidents that can occur. A train can derail due to defects in or the compromising of track infrastructure, human error, mechanical or maintenance issues on the train itself, and/or from hitting another object such as a vehicle or another train. A train can also hit another object without derailing. Train accidents can be classified in terms of both cause and effect: Classification of train accidents by cause: Engineer/Conductor Error • Passing signals at danger • Excessive speed Mishandling of the engine • Failure to check brakes and safety systems • Failure to stop at required positions Controller Error • Allowing two trains into the same occupied block section • Other Railway Personnel Error (shunters, porters, maintenance workers) • Accidental track obstruction • Improper maintenance activities (leading to warped rails, damaged ties, faulty signals, etc.) Mechanical Failure of Rolling Stock (Train Cars) • Poor maintenance • Poor design • Undetected damage • Overloading of or improperly secured freight • Combustion fire Civil Engineering Failure • Track faults • Bridge and tunnel collapses • Poor track or junction layout l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 395 Non-Railway Personnel Error • Accidental track obstruction Deliberate Acts • Deliberate track obstruction • Intentional damage to track infrastructure or the train itself • Level crossing misuse Natural Causes • Track obstruction due to landslides, avalanches, floods, or felled trees • Fog or snow that can obscure signals or the position of a train • Wet leaves Classification of Train Accidents by Effect: Collision (any of which can cause a derailment) • Head-on collision • Rear collision • Slanting collision • Collision with buffer stops • Collision with obstructions of the track Derailment • Plain track • Curve • Junction Other • Fires, explosions, and release of hazardous chemicals • People falling from trains A train accident can cause significant loss of life and/or property and environmental damage depending on the severity of the accident and the type of materials involved. In addition to hazardous commodities being transported, fuel tanks on locomotives can also cause a fire and/or an environmental hazard. The Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) is the North Bay’s passenger rail service for Marin County. SMART is a Class 4 railroad. The current 45-mile system includes stations in Novato, San Rafael, and Larkspur. SMART’s system also includes a bicycle and pedestrian pathway along the rail corridor. SMART also provides freight service to North Bay businesses in Marin County on the same line. SMART Freight operates on the historic rail corridor constructed by Southern Pacific Railroad in the late 1800s and later utilized by Northwestern Pacific Railroad (NWP) beginning in 1914. See Figure 3.213 for a map of the SMART commuter and freight line. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 396 Figure 3.214: SMART Commuter and Freight Line Source: SMART There are currently 24 bridges in the segment of the SMART line from San Rafael to Santa Rosa in Sonoma County as well as 63 at grade crossings. A positive train control system was implemented for the length of the service corridor for customer and pedestrian safety. The SMART commuter fleet consists of nine two-car Nippon Sharyo DMU trainsets. Each DMU car is powered by a Cummins QSK19-R diesel engine. Trains may be as long as station platforms provided there are cabs facing the outer ends. Each two-car train has room for over 300 passengers. Trains operate 19 round trips on weekdays at an average of 34.1 miles per hour. SMART freight trains do not transport hazardous materials and currently carry grain, food supplies and lumber. On March 19th, 2023, a SMART freight train carrying corn tipped over in Sonoma County after heavy rainfall saturated the railroad tracks. Several cars derailed. There were no injuries. On February 10th, 2023, a SMART commuter train hit a car in Novato, killing a woman. No passengers on the train were injured. On September 17th, 2020, a SMART commuter train hit a car in San Rafael, injuring a woman. No passengers on the train were injured. A July 2016 fire aboard one of Toronto's Nippon Sharyo units revealed a design flaw in the engine's crankshaft that would result in premature wear. SMART delayed operations until the engines could be serviced to correct the problem. B li&iil MTNnOCJi:io COl'N1i !ON0.\1.\ ·coi.r.,·Tv ,\LOON L'Ol,'NIY ;s.ArA COLINl'Y BRAZOS I FRE IGHT L (S ~'Ml,\\\ -lr.imm--::-::- OCTOB E · !::... MMUTER CAPITOL I CO FREIGHT LINE Sl.lLi\NO COUNTY COl\'TR/\ CO_SH COUNI\ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 397 In December 2014, rains washed away some of the SMART train track beds near Petaluma in Sonoma County, but the trains were not running. Airplane Accident An airplane accident is an occurrence associated with the operation of an airplane where a person is fatally or seriously injured and where the aircraft sustains damage or loss. Airplane accidents can occur as a result of pilot error, mechanical issues associated with aircraft, terrorism, weather, or other human error. The majority of airplane accidents and fatalities occur before or during takeoff and during approach or landing. There are two airports, two heliports and a seaplane base in Marin County, though none of them serve commercial flights. They are all private with the exception of the Gnoss Field Airport which is operated by Marin County Public Works. Gnoss Field Airport - DVO Novato, California San Rafael Airport - CA35 San Rafael, California San Rafael Private Heliport - 5CA3 San Rafael, California Commodore Center Heliport - JMC Sausalito, California Commodore Center Seaplane Base - 22CA Sausalito, California There could be numerous different impacts from an airplane crash in the Marin County OA. The worst-case scenario would be if a large commercial aircraft were to crash in any heavily populated area of the OA resulting in a mass casualty incident and significant damage on the ground. The chances of this occurring are small. The most likely significant event would be a small to medium size airplane having an incident in a heavily populated area of the OA. On July 8th 2023, a single-engine Cessna 172 plane crashed near San Rafael Airport. The plane’s tail hit power lines before the plane struck the ground. One person was killed. On May 9th, 2022, a fixed-wing, single-engine Vans RV-10 plane crashed into a hillside near the Golden Gate Bridge. At the time of the crash, the area was surrounded by thick fog. Two people were killed. On May 16th, 1946, a U.S. Army B-17 Flying Fortress aircraft crashed into White's Hill near Fairfax, California. Two people were killed and six seriously injured. Ship Accident A ship accident is a marine event that occurs directly in connection with the operation of a ship and results in loss of life, environmental damage, material damage to a ship, and/or the total loss of a ship. Ship accidents can occur as a result of a fire, explosion, collision, grounding/shoaling, contact, heavy weather damage, hull cracking, or hull defect that can result in the immobilization of main engines, penetration of the ship, extensive structural damage, l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 398 and/or a breakdown that necessitates towing assistance. A ship accident can occur with both cargo and passenger ships. Since the closure of the Marinship shipyard, Marin County does not have a marine port. There are several ferry terminals in Marin County that cater to passenger vessels: Larkspur Landing, also known as the Larkspur Ferry Terminal, serves the Golden Gate Ferry which travels to two locations in San Francisco. The Tiburon Ferry Terminal serves the Golden Gate Ferry which travels to two locations in San Francisco and the Angel Island–Tiburon Ferry Company for ferry service to Angel Island State Park. The Sausalito Ferry Terminal serves the Golden Gate Ferry and the Blue & Gold Fleet which both travel to San Francisco. The Golden Gate Ferry has a fleet of four catamarans and three monohull vessels. The monohull vessels are named M.S. Marin, M.S. San Francisco, and M.S. Sonoma. The Marin can carry 750 passengers, and the San Francisco and Sonoma can carry 630 passengers each. The catamarans are named the M.V. Del Norte, M.V. Golden Gate, M.V. Mendocino, and M.V. Napa. The Del Norte has a capacity of 400 passengers while the other three vessels have a capacity of 450 passengers. The Blue & Gold Fleet operates a fleet of 21 vessels, the largest of which can hold approximately 450 people. The Angel Island Tiburon ferry operates three vessels, the largest of which can hold 400 people. There are numerous public and private marinas and boating facilities in the Marin County OA along San Francisco Bay, Richardson Bay and Tomales Bay that serve smaller passenger watercraft and commercial fishing vessels. The most significant maritime incident that could occur in the Marin County OA would be from a large ferry at full capacity having an incident in San Francisco or Richardson Bay or at one of the ferry terminals. On November 23rd, 2018, a ferry carrying 53 passengers from Larkspur to San Francisco crashed into the dock at the San Francisco Ferry Terminal. Two people on board were injured. Both the ferry and the San Francisco Ferry Building dock sustained damage in the crash. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 399 SECTION 4.0: MITIGATION STRATEGY Mitigation projects that address the goals and objectives developed in the previous section were identified, evaluated, and prioritized. These actions form the core of the hazard mitigation plan. A capabilities assessment was conducted by Marin County and its participating jurisdictions, reviewing existing local plans, policies, and regulations for any other capabilities relevant to hazard mitigation planning. An analysis of their capability to carry out these implementation measures with an eye toward hazard and loss prevention was conducted. The capabilities assessment required an inventory of each jurisdiction’s legal, administrative, fiscal and technical capacities to support hazard mitigation planning. After completion of the capabilities assessment, each jurisdiction evaluated and prioritized their proposed mitigations. Each jurisdiction considered the social, technical, administrative, political, legal, economic, and environmental opportunities and constraints of implementing a particular mitigation action. This step resulted in a list of acceptable and realistic actions that address the hazards identified in each jurisdiction. 4.1 CHANGES IN DEVELOPMENT Overall hazard vulnerability has remained unchanged over the past 5 years due to development and population changes. Marin County development and populations have increased in some cities and decreased in several others over the last 5 years. Overall vulnerability and risk reduction has been achieved through carefully planned development and application of the capabilities detailed in Section 4.3 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT. 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(3) [The plan shall include the following:] A mi�ga�on strategy that provides the jurisdic�on’s blueprint for reducing the poten�al losses iden�fied in the risk assessment, based on exis�ng authori�es, policies, programs, and resources, and its ability to expand on and improve these exis�ng tools. §201.6(c)(3)(i) [The hazard mi�ga�on strategy shall include a] descrip�on of mi�ga�on goals to reduce or avoid long‐term vulnerabili�es to the iden�fied hazards. §201.6(c)(3)(ii) [The hazard mi�ga�on strategy shall include a] sec�on that iden�fies and analyzes a comprehensive range of specific mi�ga�on ac�ons and projects being considered to reduce the effects of each hazard, with par�cular emphasis on new and exis�ng buildings and infrastructure. All plans approved by FEMA a�er October 1, 2008, must also address the jurisdic�on’s par�cipa�on in the NFIP, and con�nued compliance with NFIP requirements, as appropriate. §201.6(c)(3)(iii) [The hazard mi�ga�on strategy shall include an] ac�on plan, describing how the ac�on iden�fied in paragraph (c)(3)(ii) of this sec�on will be priori�zed, implemented, and administered by the local jurisdic�on. Priori�za�on shall include a special emphasis on the extent to which benefits are maximized according to a cost benefit review of the proposed projects and their associated costs. §201.6(c)(3)(iv) For mul�‐jurisdic�onal plans, there must be iden�fiable ac�on items specific to the jurisdic�on reques�ng FEMA approval or credit of the plan. §201.6(c)(4)(ii) [The plan shall include a] process by which local governments incorporate the requirements of the mi�ga�on plan into other planning mechanisms such as comprehensive or l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 400 Marin County is a county located in the northwestern San Francisco Bay Area. As of the 2020 census, the population was 262,231. Its county seat and largest city is San Rafael. Marin County is across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco and is included in the San Francisco–Oakland–Berkeley, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area. Unincorporated Marin County includes most of West Marin, which borders the Pacific Coast and is the most rural part of the county, with Golden Gate National Recreation Area and the Point Reyes National Seashore occupying much of the area and small communities mixed throughout. There are also pockets of unincorporated areas along the central, Highway 101 corridor and the San Francisco Bay shoreline. Altogether, there are 22 distinct communities within unincorporated Marin County. According to the U.S. Census, the population in unincorporated Marin is 66,987. While population in both the unincorporated County and the County grew in the first half of the 2010s, since 2017 the population has decreased in both areas, with the most significant drop occurring in the most recent year. Between 2020 and 2021, the population in the unincorporated County decreased by 2.6%, over twice as much as in the County as whole (1.2%). The Association Bay Area of Governments (ABAG) projects that the population in the unincorporated County will grow by only 2% in the next two decades. Based on 2021 data from the California Department of Finance (DOF), the unincorporated area of Marin has 24,778 single-family homes constituting 83% of the total housing stock, 4,452 multi-family homes comprising 15% of all housing, and 588 mobile homes, for a total of 29,818 homes. The beauty of the natural landscape helps define the character of the community, but it also presents risk of natural hazards that present challenges to locating and building new housing, which have been skillfully met in the 2023 update to Marin County’s Housing Element. The Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) allocation for unincorporated Marin for the 2023-31 planning period has been determined by ABAG to be 3,569 housing units, including 550 units for extremely low income, 550 units for very low-income households, 634 units for low-income households, 512 units for moderate-income households, and 1,323 units for above moderate-income households. Table 4.1 presents entitled projects and pending entitled projects in unincorporated Marin County. Table 4.1: Unincorporated Marin County Future Growth Areas Development # of Units # of Parcels Project Date Acres Fire Severity Zone Flood Zone North Knoll Rd/Saint Thomas Dr 59 2 N/A 3.7 NA NA Pan Pac Ocean Site 32 4 N/A 16 NA NA Strawberry Commercial 60 4 N/A 2 NA NA Strawberry Rec District Site 46 1 N/A 2.3 NA NA Strawberry Village Center 100 2 N/A 3.3 NA NA Oak Manor Commercial Center 36 2 N/A 1.6 NA NA Kentfield Commercial Underutilized 71 12 N/A 2.4 Moderate AE Sloat Garden Center 31 2 N/A 1.1 NA AO Marin County Juvenile Hall 80 1 N/A 2.7 High NA Marinwood Plaza 125 4 N/A 125 High NA Office Building (Across from Juvenile Hall) 58 1 N/A 2.32 High NA 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ I I I I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 401 St. Vincents 680 3 34 NA NA Marin Gateway Center 100 1 5 NA X02 MLK Academy School 63 1 6 High NA 825 Drake 74 1 Moderate NA Atherton Corridor 147 4 7.4 Moderate NA Black Point (Vacant) 58 1 14.5 Moderate NA Buck Center Vacant Property 249 2 12.5 NA NA Greenpoint Nursery 53 1 3.5 Moderate AE Bernard Osher Marin Jewish Community Center 49 4 1.6 Moderate NA Cal Park 110 11 3.7 NA AE Church of Jesus Christ 35 1 1.2 Moderate NA McPhail School 33 3 1.1 NA AE Old Gallinas Children Center 50 1 1.7 Moderate NA San Quentin Adjacent Vacant Property 230 1 7.7 NA NA Office – Lagunitas (Upper Floors and Rear Prop) 30 2 1.5 Moderate NA San Domenico School 50 1 1.7 High NA Sacramento/San Anselmo Properties 64 4 2.1 Moderate – NA NA Holiday Inn Mill Valley 72 1 2.4 NA AE Jack Krystal Hotel Parcel Site 36 1 1.2 NA AE Shoreline Unified School District 44 2 2.2 Moderate NA Olema Underutilized 36 4 3.6 Moderate – NA AE Pt Reyes Coast Guard Rehabilitation/Conversion 50 1 10 Moderate NA Pt. Reyes County Vacant Site 37 2 1.9 Moderate NA Shoreline Unified School District 44 2 2.2 Moderate NA Tomales (Vacant) 30 5 32 Moderate NA Total 3,122 95 Table 4.1: Unincorporated Marin County Future Growth Areas Source: Marin County Department of Community Development 4.2 CHANGES IN PRIORITIES The overall hazard mitigation priorities in Marin County and its participating jurisdictions have not changed since the 2018 MJHMP update. However, the strategies that support the overall county priorities have changed since the 2018 MJHMP and are reflected in the sections below. There were many projects that were either ongoing day-to-day activities or were response related that were deleted from the 2018 MJHMP project list and not carried over to this plan update. Several actions were completed, and new projects were added to coincide with the changes in priorities, progress in local mitigation efforts and changes in development. 4.2.1 VULNERABILITY AND RISK REDUCTION All new development occurring in the future growth area identified in Table 4.1 will provide hazard vulnerability and risk reduction for the county. This reduction will occur due to the anticipated improvements and investments implemented in the 2023 revisions to the Marin County General Plan. In addition, any new development will comply with the most up-to-date building codes and use the latest techniques, further reducing vulnerabilities throughout the County. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ I I I I I I I I I I I I - I I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 402 4.3 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT Capabilities are the programs and polices currently in place to reduce hazard impacts or that could be used to implement hazard mitigation activities. The capability assessment identifies the local planning mechanisms where information from the 2018 MJHMP is incorporated and where updated hazard mitigation information from this 2023 MJHMP will be incorporated once approved. The capability assessment is divided into four sections: regulatory, administrative and technical, fiscal, and outreach and partnerships. 4.3.1 REGULATORY CAPABILITIES The legal and regulatory capabilities include existing ordinances and codes that affect the county’s or city’s physical or built environment. Examples of legal and/or regulatory capabilities can include: a jurisdiction’s building codes, zoning ordinances, subdivision ordnances, special purpose ordinances, growth management ordinances, site plan review, general plans, capital improvement plans, economic development plans, emergency response plans, and real estate disclosure plans. The table below lists regulatory mitigation capabilities, including planning and land management tools, typically used by local jurisdictions to implement hazard mitigation activities and indicates those that are in place. Table 4.2: Legal and Regulatory Capabilities Plans Yes/No Latest Update Does the plan/program address hazards? Does the plan identify projects to include in the mitigation strategy? Can the plan be used to implement mitigation actions? Countywide Plan: Water Resources, Environmental Hazards, and Public Safety Sections Y 2023 Describes hazard areas and regulates current and future development based on known hazard areas. Expansion and Improvement: The HMP will be informed by referencing the Safety Element of the General Plan. The City will adopt the approved HMP as part of the General Plan Safety Element to meet the requirements of AB 2140. Local Coastal Program Y 2023 Pursuant to the California Coastal Act, Marin County’s Local Coastal Program guides land use and development to ensure protection of public access and other coastal resources along Marin County’s Pacific coastline. Expansion and Improvement: Included is a hazards section with policies that guide development standards and project review for areas subject to hazards including flooding, bluff retreat, earthquakes, and coastal erosion. County Emergency Operations Plan Y 2018 This plan describes what the County’s actions will be during a response to all hazards. Includes annexes that describe in more detail the actions required of departments/agencies. Further, this plan describes the role of the Emergency Operation Center (EOC) and the coordination that occurs between the EOC and the local jurisdiction’s departments and other response agencies. Expansion and Improvement: This plan may be used for mitigation in that it describes risk and vulnerability in the county. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 403 Area Housing Authority Organizational Emergency Response Plan Y Enhances the Area Housing Authority’s ability to effectively respond to emergencies by establishing procedures and assigning responsibilities. Expansion and Improvement: This plan may be used for mitigation in that it describes risk and vulnerability in the county. Strategic Plan No Capital Improvements Plan Y 2021 The Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) was developed through collaboration between Capital Project staff of Public Works (DPW) and the County Administrator’s office. Significant input was provided by multiple County departments, special districts, and enterprise funds of outside the general County General Funds. The CIP presents the proposed funding for the fiscal year (FY) of 2021-2022 to improve four key areas. Facility improvements, water resources, road infrastructure, and airports. Expansion and Improvement: CIP identifies potential hazard mitigation projects. Economic Development Plan Y 2022 The Marin County Economic Vitality Strategic Plan outlines “Flagship Initiatives” that the County of Marin and community partners will pursue over the next 5 years. Ultimately, the actions taken are intended to create a dynamic economy, providing equitable access to good jobs, opportunities for new business creation and a high quality of life for all Marin’s residents. Expansion and Improvement: The plan has a strong focus on the impact of Covid-19 on the local economy, so may be used to show how disasters impact Marin’s businesses and workforce, but does not have mitigation projects. Continuity of Operations Plan N Flood Safety Plan Y Plan addresses flood hazard response, not mitigation. It was created in 2018 and a 2023 update is in progress. Engineering Studies for Streams Y There are many existing studies on marinflooddistrict.org. A study of Novato Creek is currently underway. Expansion and Improvement: These studies do identify potential hazard mitigation projects. Open Space Management Plan Y Marin County Parks holds numerous plans that guide open space management: Strategic Plan, Road and Trail Management Plan, Vegetation and Biodiversity Management Plan, Inclusive Access Plan. Expansion and Improvement: Some of these plans contain guidance for mitigation projects and will be aligned with the MJHMP to describe developmental trends, hazards, and potential development in hazard areas. Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) Y 2021 The Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM) participates in the nine-county Metropolitan Transportation l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 404 Commission, which adopted Plan Bay Area 2050. The plan outlines strategies spread across transportation, housing, the economy and the environment that seek a more equitable Bay Area. Expansion and Improvement: The plan does outline regional strategies for mitigation that may be used in Marin. Stormwater Management Plan/Program Y 2022 SWRP is a watershed-level resource planning document covering the County and Marin’s 11 cities that describes watershed issues, identifies project opportunities with multiple benefits, and creates a prioritized list of project opportunities based on quantifying multiple benefits. Expansion and Improvement: The Plan will be aligned with the MJHMP in describing and developing mitigation actions to address climate change and drought. Water demand reduction strategies contained in the plan should be considered for inclusion as mitigation activities in the MJHMP. Repetitive Loss Area Analysis Y On July 18, 2023, an expanded and updated multi- jurisdictional analysis was adopted by the County Board of Supervisors. Community Wildfire Protection Plan Y 2020 CWPP addresses wildfire risk and mitigation measures to take throughout the county. Expansion and Improvement: The plan can be used to support and guide mitigation efforts. Other special plans (e.g., brownfields redevelopment, disaster recovery, coastal zone management, climate change adaptation) Y 25 Community and area plans within Marin. Climate change adaptation policies and programs in Countywide Plan Safety, Element/Environmental Hazards section. Policies and programs address sea level rise, flooding, extreme heat, wildfire, equitable safety planning for vulnerable populations. Building Code, Permitting, and Inspections Y/N Are codes adequately enforced? Building Code Y Yes, the Community Development Agency established a code compliance program to ensure adherence with the County’s law and regulations related to zoning, construction, and environmental health. Expansion and Improvement: Adherence to building codes, including local codes, regulates growth and controls land use patterns. Addressing known hazards, as codes are updated, results in lowered risk and potentially fewer losses. Building Code Effectiveness Grading Schedule (BCEGS) Score Y 3 Yes, codes are adequately enforced. The County’s score is 3. Fire department ISO rating: Y 3/3X The County’s ISO Rating is 3/3x; to be rated a “3” the parcel must be within 1000-ft of a municipal fire hydrant and 5- miles from a fire station. If either of those criteria are not met, the parcel is 3x (the old 9). Furthermore, per the State, if the parcel is more than 5-miles from a fire station, the parcel is rated “10”. Yes, our codes are adequately l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 405 enforced. Site plan review requirements Y Yes, this is adequately achieved. Land Use Planning and Ordinances Y/N Is the ordinance an effective measure for reducing hazard impacts? Is the ordinance adequately administered and enforced? County Code of Ordinances Y The purpose of this code is to establish the minimum requirements to safeguard the public health, safety, and general welfare through structural strength, means of egress facilities, stability, access to persons with disabilities, sanitation, adequate lighting and ventilation and energy conservation, and safety to life and property from fire and other hazards attributed to the built environment; to regulate and control the demolition of all buildings and structures, and for related purposes. Expansion and Improvement: Adherence to local ordinances regulates growth and enforces standards. Addressing known hazards, as codes are updated, results in lowered risk and potentially fewer losses. Zoning ordinance Y 2023 Zoning ordinances are regularly updated (last update 2023). Yes, they are adequately administered and enforced. Expansion and Improvement: Adherence to local ordinances regulates growth and enforces standards. Addressing known hazards, as codes are updated, results in lowered risk and potentially fewer losses. Subdivision ordinance Y Yes, the ordinance is adequately administered and enforced. It is regularly updated (last update 2023). Expansion and Improvement: Adherence to local ordinances regulates growth and enforces standards. Addressing known hazards, as codes are updated, results in lowered risk and potentially fewer losses. Floodplain ordinance Y Marin County Code 23.09 Floodplain Management. Ordinance 3293 Sec 1, 1999 Expansion and Improvement: Adherence to local ordinances regulates growth and enforces standards. Addressing known hazards, as codes are updated, results in lowered risk and potentially fewer losses. Natural hazard specific ordinance (stormwater, steep slope, wildfire) Hazards are addressed in the Development Code, Title 22. Regularly updated. Expansion and Improvement: Adherence to local ordinances regulates growth and enforces standards. Addressing known hazards, as codes are updated, results in lowered risk and potentially fewer losses. Flood insurance rate maps Y Hard copies of the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) are maintained in the DPW Land Development office. Electronic copies are available on MarinMap.org. Expansion and Improvement: The maps can be used to support and guide mitigation efforts. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 406 Elevation Certificates Elevation Certificates are required for all new and substantially remodeled structures. Hard copies of all Elevation Certificates since 1982 are maintained in the DPW Land Development office. Expansion and Improvement: The certificates can be used to support and guide mitigation efforts. Acquisition of land for open space and public recreation uses Y The County of Marin is committed to continuing to preserve open space. Expansion and Improvement: As a member of Together Bay Area, the County has prioritized purchasing multiple open space properties to that may be used as open space preserves and recreation space. Erosion or sediment control program Y Requires property owners to have effective Best Management Practices in place to control pollutants in runoff from certain earth-disturbing activities. Expansion and Improvement: The program can be used to support and guide mitigation efforts. Table 4.2: Marin County Legal and Regulatory Capabilities Source: Marin County Plans Marin General Plan California Government Code 65300 requires that every City and County in the state have a General Plan. The Marin General Plan, adopted in 2007, was prepared over a multiyear period that included an extensive public review process. The Marin General Plan was updated in 2015, with the Housing and Safety Elements updated in 2023. The Marin General Plan is the most important policy and planning document in the county and is used by virtually every department. The Marin General Plan is the County's statement of its vision for the future. The Marin General Plan contains policies covering every aspect of the County: land use (how land can be developed), circulation, noise, air quality, housing, open space and conservation, and health and safety. Marin County specific goals and policies related to mitigation of natural hazards are as follows: 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(ii) [The plan shall include a] process by which local governments incorporate the requirements of the mi�ga�on plan into other planning mechanisms such as comprehensive or capital improvements, when appropriate. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 407 Table 4.3: County of Marin General Plan Goal/Policy/ Program Explanation Land Use Element Goals The requirements of the land use element are met in the following sections of the General Plan: water resources, community development, planning areas. The goals for these elements are: To support healthy watersheds and provide clean and adequate water for wildlife and humans. To utilize the Environmental Corridor Land Use Framework, coordinate with other jurisdictions, and map land use designations. To establish land use policies for the seven planning areas. Policies Overall policies for land use are intended: to protect, improve, and restore resources, including, directing land use to appropriate areas, reducing impacts, establishing land use designations and categories, and setting land use standards. Programs Programs for land use include, setting standards, monitoring and assessing programs, coordinating with other jurisdictions, following best practices, maintaining urban, agricultural, and natural corridors, consider amending urban service areas preserve resources, consider sea level rise. Programs also include, updating plans, reviewing codes, and revising zoning maps. Conservation and Open Space Element Goal To sustainably manage and preserve open space and biological resources for the benefit of the environment and Marin residents. Policy Policies for Conservation and Open Space include; support efforts and continue to acquire open space, balance shoreline protection and access, protect natural resources, support vegetation and wildlife disease management, control non-native plants and species, and restrict use of toxic chemical substances in habitats. Program Conservation programs include mapping natural communities, developing monitoring programs, and partnering with local actors. Open space programs include, coordinating with partners, establish compatible policies, inform and enforce, research, and acquire and protect lands. Safety Element Goals To reduce risk, increase safety, and bolster resilience in an equitable manner. Policies Policies in the Safety Element are to represent an inclusive, community-led approach to bolstering resilience. Furthermore, policies are evidence of an all-hazard informed, approach to protection, planning, and regulation. Programs Programs in the Safety Element include specific outreach and support to vulnerable populations, working with local leaders, coordinating with private and public partners, improving hazard information sharing with residents, improving infrastructure and systems to support/improve emergency response, and utilizing planning functions. Public Facilities Element Goal To provide adequate public facilities and services to accommodate the level of development planned by cities and towns and the County. Policies Policies to support the County’s Public Facility Element include requiring cost sharing, effective planning, discouraging privatization, and reducing demand on public facilities. Programs Programs include requiring fair share contributions, planning for service expansion, preparing naming and sponsorship guidelines, and reducing demand on public facilities. Table 4.3: Marin County Goals and Policies Source: Marin County General Plan l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 408 4.3.2 ADMINISTRATIVE AND TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES The administrative and technical capability assessment identifies the personnel responsible for activities related to mitigation and loss prevention in Marin County. Many positions are full time and/or filled by the same person. Table 4.4: Administrative and Technical Capabilities Administrative Yes/No Is coordination effective? Planning Commission Y Administrative Services Division handles finance and purchasing, budgeting, risk management, information technology, and business licensing for the community. The department may be responsible for implementing mitigation actions related to the department’s scope. Expansion and Improvement: Prioritize new initiatives that support mitigation activities within the county. Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group Y The County participates in the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group that meets quarterly to review and manage Hazard Mitigation projects and programs. The Hazard Mitigation Committee is the supporting branch of the disaster council. Expansion and Improvement: Prioritize new initiatives that support mitigation activities within the County. Maintenance programs to reduce risk (e.g., tree trimming, clearing drainage systems) Y Many Flood Zones have creek and drainage maintenance programs. These only cover a small portion of creeks in the County, where residents formed a flood zone and where a project was initiated and right of way acquired by the Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District. Under the guidelines of the 2020 Pacific Gas and Electric Wildfire Mitigation Plan, PG&E will assist with mitigation efforts by clearing trees. Expansion and Improvement: The Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority will provide funding and educational programs on best practices for prevention efforts. Brush clearance and controlled burns will assist with mitigation efforts. Mutual aid agreements Y Fire, Law, PW, Water agencies, MHOAC Technical Yes/No Has capability been used to assess/mitigate risk in the past? Warning systems/services (Reverse 911, outdoor warning signals) Y Utilizes the emergency warning systems through the EAS system as their primary warning capability. Utilizes the emergency warning systems through telephone, text, and email notification utilizing reverse 911. Expansion and Improvement: To ensure the effectiveness of the emergency warning system and proper community response, monthly LRAD testing, and IPAWs drills are required. Hazard data and information Y Yes, previous and new mitigation projects are informed by hazard data and information. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 409 Grant writing Y Yes Hazus analysis N Staff/Personnel Resources Yes/No Full Time/ Part Time Is staffing adequate to enforce regulations? Is staff trained on hazards and mitigation? Is coordination between agencies and staff effective? Chief Building Official Y/PT Yes Expansion and Improvement: Integrate mitigation actions and strategies into the Capital Improvements Program and annual budgeting. Planner(s), engineer(s) and technical staff knowledge of land development, land management practices, and natural hazards. Y/FT Develops and maintains the General Plan, including the Safety Element. Develops area plans based on the General Plan, to provide more specific guidance for the development of more specific areas. Reviews private development projects and proposed capital improvements projects and other physical projects involving property for consistency and conformity with the General Plan. Anticipates and acts on the need for new plans, policies, and Code changes. Applies the approved plans, policies, code provisions, and other regulations to proposed land uses. Expansion and Improvement: Provide opportunities for continued education to staff to maintain knowledge of new code and regulatory requirements. Engineer(s), Building Inspectors/Code Enforcement Officers or other professional(s) and technical staff trained in construction requirements and practices related to existing and new buildings. Y/FT Oversees the effective, efficient, fair, and safe enforcement of the California Building Code Expansion and Improvement: Provide opportunities for continued education to staff to maintain knowledge of new code and regulatory requirements. GIS Coordinator Y/FT Yes Community Development Staff Y/FT Develops and maintains the General Plan, including the Safety Element. Develops area plans based on the General Plan, to provide more specific guidance for the development of more specific areas. Reviews private development projects and proposed capital improvements projects and other physical projects involving property for consistency and conformity with the General Plan. Expansion and Improvement: Provide opportunities for continued education to staff to maintain knowledge of new code and regulatory requirements. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 410 Engineer(s), project manager(s), technical staff, equipment operators, and maintenance and construction staff. Y/FT Maintains and operates a wide range of local equipment and facilities as well as providing assistance to members of the public. These include providing sufficient clean fresh water, reliable sewer services, street maintenance, storm drainage systems, street cleaning, streetlights and traffic signals. Expansion and Improvement: Provide opportunities for continued education to staff to maintain knowledge of new code and regulatory requirements. Floodplain Administrator Y/FT Reviews and ensures that new development proposals do not increase flood risk, and that new developments are not located below the 100 year flood level. In addition, the Floodplain Administrator is responsible for planning and managing flood risk reduction projects throughout the unincorporated county. Expansion and Improvement: Provide opportunities for continued education to staff to maintain knowledge of new code and regulatory requirements. Emergency Management Y/FT Maintains and updates the Emergency Operations Plan for the county. In addition, coordinates local response and relief activities within the Emergency Operation Center, and works closely with local, state, and federal partners to support planning and training and to provide information and coordinate assistance. Expansion and Improvement: Develop a quarterly countywide emergency management and hazard mitigation coordination meeting. Procurement Services Manager Y/FT Provides a full range of municipal financial services, administers several licensing measures, and functions as the county’s Procurement Services Manager. Marin County Sheriff’s Office Staff Y/FT Yes, the Marin County Sheriff’s Office is comprehensively staffed and trained on hazards. In addition to field services, the responsibilities of the Sheriff’s Office include maintaining the county jail, providing security to the Superior Court, operating a countywide communications division, operating a documentary services division consisting of records, warrants, civil units, and more. Expansion and Improvement: Proactively identify opportunities to coordinate and collaborate with neighboring jurisdictions to increase County and region- wide capabilities. Marin County Fire Staff Y/FT The Marin County Fire has responsibility for fire suppression and emergency response in commercial, residential, wildland / urban interface. The Marin County Fire supports implementation of mitigation actions that reduce the risk of wildfire. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management, a division of the County Fire Department, conducts l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 411 emergency preparedness activities for the community. Mitigation activities related to emergency preparedness can be implemented by OEM in partnership with other county partners. Expansion and Improvement: Proactively identify opportunities to coordinate and collaborate with neighboring jurisdictions to increase County and region- wide capabilities. Table 4.4: Marin County Goals and Policies Source: Marin County General Plan l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 412 4.3.3 FISCAL CAPABILITIES The fiscal capability assessment shows specific financial and budgetary tools available to Marin County such as community development block grants; capital improvements project funding; authority to levy taxes for specific purposes; fees for water, sewer, gas, or electric services; impact fees for homebuyers or developers for new development; ability to incur debt through general obligations bonds; and withholding spending in hazard-prone areas. Table 4.5: Marin County Fiscal Capabilities Financial Yes/No Has the funding resource been used in past and for what type of activities? Could the resource be used to fund future mitigation actions? Capital improvements project funding Y Yes, Capital Improvements Project funding has been used in the past and can be used for future mitigation projects. Authority to levy taxes for specific purposes Y Post Prop 13 and Prop 218 the success in levying taxes for mitigation projects has been significantly reduced. Many flood-prone areas historically relied on special taxes to build out levee improvements and pump stations. In the last 20 years (a total of 4) special tax measures for flood mitigation projects have not passed. In March 2020, tax Measure C was passed. The measure will raise approximately $20 million annually to fund wildland fire hazard mitigation efforts throughout the county. Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority (MWPA) was formed to serve as the governing body to manage the funds raised through Measure C funds go to public outreach, vegetation management, fire hazard assessments, among other projects. Fees for water, sewer, gas, or electric services (water - fire flow increase, sewer, more research on G&E) Y Funding has not been used in the recent past for mitigation, but could possibly fund future mitigation activities. For example, some Special Districts are considering potential projects with dual water storage and flood benefit utilizing water fees. Impact fees for new development Y Road and transportation related impact fees are collected in connection with building permit issuance. These funds are not available for future mitigation. Storm water utility fee Y Storm water fees have been used for mitigation projects in Flood Zone 9, including: bridge replacement, pump stations, levee evaluations, and stormwater detention basin construction. The Zone 9 fee expires in 2027. We are following the work of other agencies after SB 231 to see if the County would pursue it again. Incur debt through general obligation bonds and/or special tax bonds N This approach has been taken in the 1980s for flood mitigation in Novato creek, but not recently. They typically require voter approval to levy a special tax to pay back the bonds but those have not been successful in recent years. Incur debt through private activities N l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 413 Community Development Block Grant Y The County has been administering the CDBG program for 30+ years through a collaboration with the cities and towns. Funds are currently used to serve low-income residents of Marin and address historical patterns of segregation in our communities. Priorities for the use of funds are set through a Countywide Priority Setting committee. Given the small amount of funds available, less than $1.5 million countywide and many competing needs, this may not be a viable source for mitigation funds. Other federal funding programs Y Yes, federal funding has been used for mitigation projects through Emergency Management Performance Grant and the Hazard Mitigation Assistance Program. State funding programs Y There have been several Department of Water Resources grants in support of flood mitigation projects and there will likely continue to be in the foreseeable future. The State Coastal Conservancy grants have funded sea level rise adaptation. Table 4.5: Marin County Fiscal Capabilities Source: Marin County l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 414 4.3.4 OUTREACH AND PARTNERSHIPS CAPABILITIES The outreach and partnerships capability assessment shows outreach and public education programs available to the County and the County partnerships utilized to promote those programs. Table 4.6: Marin County Community Outreach Outreach and Partnerships Yes/No Could the program/organization help implement future mitigation activities? Local citizen groups or non-profit organizations focused on environmental protection, emergency preparedness, access and functional needs populations, etc. Yes Yes, these groups can assist with informing project plans. Expansion and Improvement: Proactively identify opportunities to coordinate and collaborate with neighboring jurisdictions to increase County and region-wide capabilities. Ongoing public education or information program (e.g., responsible water use, fire safety, household preparedness, environmental education) Yes Yes, these communities can assist with informing project plans. Expansion and Improvement: Proactively identify opportunities to coordinate and collaborate with communities to increase educational opportunities. Natural disaster or safety related school programs Yes Yes, school partners can assist with informing project plans. Expansion and Improvement: Proactively identify opportunities to coordinate and collaborate with schools to increase educational opportunities. StormReady certification Yes Marin County is a StormReady community. Expansion and Improvement: Proactively identify opportunities to expand participation. Firewise Communities certification Yes With over 80 Firewise Communities, Marin is the fastest growing "Firewise USA" county in the nation. These communities can assist with informing project plans. Expansion and Improvement: Proactively identify opportunities to expand participation and increase educational opportunities. Community Rating System Yes Marin County is a Class 6 CRS community Public-private partnership initiatives addressing disaster-related issues Yes Through Marin Voluntary Organizations Active in Disasters, the County of Marin leverages partnerships with public-private partners for disaster related initiatives. Expansion and Improvement: Proactively identify opportunities to coordinate and collaborate. Table 4.6: Marin County Community Outreach Source: Marin County l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 415 4.4 PARTICIPATION IN THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM Marin County has participated in the Regular Phase of the NFIP since March 1, 1982. Since then, the County has administered floodplain management regulations that meet or exceed the minimum requirements of the NFIP. Under that arrangement, residents and businesses paid the same flood insurance premium rates as most other communities in the country. The Community Rating System (CRS) was created in 1990. Marin County has been in the CRS program since May 1, 2016. The program is designed to recognize floodplain management activities that are above and beyond the NFIP’s minimum requirements. CRS is designed to reward a community for implementing public information, mapping, regulatory, loss reduction and/or flood preparedness activities. On a scale of 10 to 1, Marin County is currently ranked Class Six community, which gives a 20% premium discount to individuals in the unincorporated Marin County Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA), and a 10% discount to policyholders outside the SFHA. Presently, the County manages its floodplains in compliance with NFIP/CRS requirements and implements a floodplain management program designed to protect the people and property of the County. Floodplain regulations are a critical element in local floodplain management and are a primary component in Marin County’s participation in the NFIP. As well, Marin County’s floodplain management activities apply to existing and new development areas, implementing flood protection measures for structures and maintaining drainage systems to help reduce the potential of flooding within the unincorporated Marin County. As part of the County’s efforts to comply with NFIP, Marin County will make updates and revisions to these regulations periodically to ensure they are most effective at minimizing the threat of harm from flood events. These updates and revisions may be promoted by changes in local demographics, shifts in land use, changes to flood regimes such as frequency and intensity of flood events, and other factors that may warrant action. The County will also continue to incorporate any changes to the locations and designations of mapped floodplains into future planning documents, including future updates to this Plan. The County will also explore opportunities to enforce or enhance County ordinances, building code, and other regulatory actions to address substantial improvements/substantial damage properties. Marin County will consider developing a Substantial Damage Management Plan. The Marin County will continue to manage their floodplains in continued compliance with the NFIP. An overview of the Marin County’s NFIP status and floodplain management program is discussed in Table 4.7. Additional information on the Marin County’s CRS program follows. The activities credited by the CRS program provide direct benefits to Marin County and its residents, including: • Enhanced public safety; • A reduction in damage to property and public infrastructure; • Avoidance of economic disruption and losses; • Reduction of human suffering; and • Protection of the environment. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 416 The activities for which Marin County implements and receives CRS credits include: 310 Elevation Certificates – Marin County receives credit for creating Construction Certificate Management Procedures as well as to maintaining Post-FIRM elevation certificates. 320 Map Information Services – Marin County receives credit for providing map information to inquirers in all seven elements such as providing information from the FIRM necessary for flood insurance, notifying inquirers of the mandatory purchase of flood insurance for all federally backed loans, providing information regarding properties located in a floodway, sea level rise area, tsunami or dam inundation area, repetitive loss areas, and areas that should be protected such as wetlands and critical habitat. 330 Outreach Projects – Marin County has a robust outreach program and receives maximum credit for this Activity. The County mails out an annual brochure prior to the rainy season to properties in the Special Flood Hazard Area, Repetitive Loss Areas, Tsunami and Dam inundation areas and to local lenders, real estate brokerages and insurance companies. Marin County also receives credit for its social media outreach on Facebook, Twitter and NextDoor. 340 Hazard Disclosure – Marin County works with local real estate brokerages to encourage them to advise prospective home buyers of required disclosures and receives credit for this Activity. 350 Flood Protection Information – Marin County receives credit for Elements in this Activity by maintaining required information documents available in the Marin County Library catalog as well as documents that are pertinent to residents. The County also receives credit for maintaining a presence on the County Public Works website. 360 Flood Protection Assistance – Marin County receives credit for providing property protection advice. The County also provides information about available financing, such as grants and other funding sources, to all who inquire. County staff is also available to make site visits to assist residents. 370 Flood Insurance Promotion – Marin County receives credit for advising people about flood insurance. 410 Floodplain Mapping – Marin County receives credit for mapping special hazards such as tsunamis. 420 Open Space Preservation – Marin County receives credit for preserving open space, preserving the natural functions of open space, creating incentives for preserving open space and for maintaining low density zoning regulations. 430 Higher Regulatory Standards – Marin County receives credit for many of the elements under this Activity such as freeboard, foundation protection, providing local drainage protection, and administering floodplain management regulations. The County also receives credit for l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 417 creating, adhering, and enforcing a robust building code. The County also enforced the floodplain management provisions of our zoning, subdivision and building code ordinances. 440 Flood Data Maintenance – Marin County receives credit for maintaining digital Flood Rate Insurance Maps (FIRM). Electronic availability improves public access. Maintaining copies of previous version of the FIRMs provides a significant research tool and valuable service to the residents of Marin County. 450 Stormwater Management – Marin County receives credit for maintaining a Storm Water Management system via healthy erosion and sediment control requirements and water quality regulations. The County regulates development on a case-by-case basis to ensure that runoff is treated before it leaves the site. The County also ensures that stormwater runoff from a site will not exceed the pre-development runoff. The County promotes the use of onsite bio-retention areas or other treatment facilities have been provided to mitigate runoff and water quality. The County enforces regulations to minimize erosion from land disturbance due to construction. 502 Repetitive Loss – Marin County is a Category C community with greater than 50 repetitive Loss properties. The repetitive loss areas are mapped and can be viewed by the public on MarinMap.org. A notice is mailed to each property in the repetitive loss area to advise them of flood prevention measures, insurance requirements and availability, and available financial assistance. 510 Floodplain Management – Marin County receives credit for both its Floodplain Management Plan and its Repetitive Loss Area Analysis. The County has adopted the Marin County Multi- Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan and produces an annual progress report. Marin County participates in FEMA’s Home Elevation Program which is actively raising homes in the Special Flood Hazard Area. 520 Acquisition and Relocation – Marin County receives some credit for removing homes that have been demolished from the Special Flood Hazard Area. 530 Flood Protection – Marin County receives credit for elevating structures in the Special Flood Hazard Area above the Base Flood Elevation. Staff also provide information on other flood protection techniques such as barriers, wet floodproofing and dry floodproofing. Marin County participates in FEMA’s Home Elevation Program which is actively raising homes in the Special Flood Hazard Area. 540 Drainage Systems Maintenance – Marin County receives credit for removing debris from natural drainage channels and maintaining an active and ongoing maintenance program of problem site area. Marin County also has strong stream dumping regulations which includes outreach to the public. 610 Flood Warning and Response - Marin County receives credit for all of the Elements in the Flood Warning and Response Activity. These Elements include our flood threat recognitions system that identifies an impending flood, our emergency warning dissemination system that warns the public of impending flood, our flood response plan and operations, and coordination with critical facility operators. Marin County is also a registered Storm Ready Community and a Tsunami Ready Community. Marin County receives credit for annual outreach advising l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 418 residents of flood warning and safety precautions. The County organizes and participates in an annual flood exercise with the purpose of being prepared for an actual activation of the operations. Following an exercise, the County produces an After Action Report which includes lessons learned as a method to document and improve our flood warning and response procedures. 630 Dams: Credit is provided for a State Dam Safety Program. Table 4.7: Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) NFIP Topic Source of Information Comments Insurance Summary How many NFIP policies are in the community? What is the total premium and coverage? State NFIP Coordinator or FEMA NFIP Specialist As 10/2/23 there are 1327 policies in force. Total premiums $1,734,601. Coverage is $406,7104,000. How many claims have been paid in the community? What is the total amount of paid claims? How many of the claims were for substantial damage? FEMA NFIP or Insurance Specialist As of 10/2/23 the total number of claims was 773. Total amount of paid claims is $10,173,472.49. Since 1978, there have been 51 substantial damage claims. How many structures are exposed to flood risk within the community? *“flood risk” is defined as the 1% annual chance flood (100-year flood. Numbers are from overlay of FEMA SFHA and building stock data. Community Floodplain Administrator (FPA) There are 4536 buildings in the SFHA in the unincorporated County Describe any areas of flood risk with limited NFIP policy coverage Community FPA and FEMA Insurance Specialist None Staff Resources Is the Community Floodplain Administrator or NFIP Coordinator certified? Community FPA No Is floodplain management an auxiliary function? Community FPA Yes Provide an explanation of NFIP administration services (e.g., permit review, GIS, education or outreach, inspections, engineering capability) Community FPA Permits are reviewed for FEMA regulation and compliance. GIS is used to ascertain if property is in a flood zone. A final inspection is performed to ensure compliance. An annual outreach is mailed to all properties in SFHA. What are the barriers to running an effective NFIP program in the community, if any? Community FPA There are no barriers to running an effective NFIP program. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 419 Table 4.7: Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) NFIP Topic Source of Information Comments Compliance History Is the community in good standing with the NFIP? State NFIP Coordinator, FEMA NFIP Specialist, community records yes Are there any outstanding compliance issues (i.e., current violations)? no When was the most recent Community Assistance Visit (CAV) or Community Assistance Contact (CAC)? 9/15/20 Is a CAV or CAC scheduled or needed? The next scheduled CAV will be October 19, 2023 Regulation When did the community enter the NFIP? Community Status Book http://www.fema.gov/ national-flood-insurance- program/national-flood- insurance-program- community-status-book March 1, 1984 Are the FIRMs digital or paper? Community FPA Marin County has both digital and paper FIRMS Do floodplain development regulations meet or exceed FEMA or State minimum requirements? If so, in what ways? Community FPA Marin County regulations meet and exceed FEMA requirements in the following: development limitations, higher regulatory standards for freeboard, foundation protection, and building codes. Marin has adopted and enforces international building Codes. Provide an explanation of the permitting process. Community FPA, State, FEMA NFIP Flood Insurance Manual http://www.fema.gov/ flood-insurance- manual Community FPA, FEMA CRS Coordinator, ISO representative CRS manual http:// www.fema.gov/library/ viewRecord.do?id=2434 Permit applications are received, reviewed, and approved by professional staff. Inspections are required at foundation, close-in and at final. All projects that will be constructed in the SFHA will be subject to the provisions of Marin County Code 24.04 Development Code and 23.09 Floodplain Management Code. The finished floor elevation of any substantial remodel in the SFHA must be at least 1 foot above the BFE. Community Rating System (CRS) Does the community participate in CRS? Community FPA, State, FEMA NFIP yes What is the community’s CRS Class Ranking? Flood Insurance Manual http://www.fema.gov/ flood-insurance-manual Class 6 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 420 Table 4.7: Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) NFIP Topic Source of Information Comments What categories and activities provide CRS points and how can the class be improved? Marin receives credit in Series 310, 320, 330, 340, 350, 360, 370, 410, 420, 430, 440, 450, 510, 520. 530, 540, and 610. Marin County could improve its class ranking by doing more work in Activities 420, 430, 450, 520, and 630 Does the plan include CRS planning requirements Community FPA, FEMA CRS Coordinator, ISO representative CRS manual http:// www.fema.gov/library/ viewRecord.do?id=2434 yes Table 4.7: Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Source: FEMA, Marin County NFIP Insurance Coverage Details Unincorporated Marin County joined the NFIP on March 1, 1982. NFIP insurance data provided by FEMA indicates that as of June 22, 2023, there were 1462 policies in force in the unincorporated Marin County with $1,994,164 in premiums, resulting in $452,421,500 of insurance in force. There have been 889 closed paid losses totaling $10,360,625. Fifty-one (51) of the claims were considered substantial damage losses. Of these losses, 572 parcels were in A or V zones, and 317 were in B, C, or X zones. Of the 889 claims, 736 were associated with pre-FIRM structures and 33 with post-FIRM structures. As of October 19, 2023, there were ninety-three (93) repetitive loss structures in the unincorporated County. Five (5) were in X zones, one (1) was in an A 0.2% zones, one (1) was in an AH zone, three(3) were in AO zones , four (4) were in A zones, fifty-four (54) were in AE zones, fifteen (15) were in AE Floodway zones, and ten (10) were in VE zones. These repetitive loss structures account for $5,090,322 of the total losses in unincorporated Marin County. There were 11 severe repetitive loss properties in unincorporated Marin County totaling $1,152,259. Repetitive Loss Structures Repetitive Loss Residential Structures: 84 Repetitive Loss Non-Residential Structures: 9 Severe Repetitive Loss Residential Structures: 6 Severe Repetitive Loss Non -Residential Structures: 3 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 421 4.4.1 SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED OR SUBSTANTIALLY DAMAGED PROPERTIES The NFIP includes a requirement that new buildings and substantially improved buildings be constructed in ways that minimize or prevent damage during a flood. This requirement grew out of the recognition that there were large numbers of buildings already located in flood prone areas that would continue to be subject to damage. The purpose of the substantially improved (SI) or substantially damaged (SD) requirements is to protect the property owner’s investment and safety, and, over time, to reduce the total number of buildings that are exposed to flood damage, thus reducing the burden on taxpayers through the payment of disaster assistance. The SI/SD requirements are triggered when the local official determines that the cost of repairing or improving a building in an SFHA equals or exceeds 50 percent of the building’s market value (excluding land value). The Marin County Code 23.09 addresses Floodplain Management standards of construction. The Marin County Construction Certificate Management Procedures, updated May 2023, describes of how the County implements the substantial improvement/substantial damage provisions of their floodplain management regulations. The Department of Public Works, Land Development Division is responsible for the review, approval and inspection of all land development issues within the County of Marin including FEMA related administrative documents. Review, approval, and inspections of the structure associated with permits are conducted by both the Land Development Division of Public Works and the Building and Safety Division of the Community Development Department. The following explains the management procedures for review of Elevation Certificates and all other required floodplain-related construction certificates including, but not limited to, Floodproofing Certificates, V Zone design certificates, and engineered flood opening certificates. These procedures outline the types of certificates required, the collection and review of all certificates, how corrections should be made, where the certificates are stored/archived, and how we make these certificates available to the public. (a) TYPES OF CERTIFICATES REQUIRED When any new construction, substantial improvement or repair for a substantially damaged building is conducted in the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) the Land Development Division of Public Works shall require an Elevation Certificate and any other floodplain-related certificates that are appropriate such as Floodproofing Certificate for Non-Residential Structures, V Zone design certificate, and certification of engineered flood openings for the development. (a) & (b) WHEN CERTIFICATES ARE REQUIRED The applicant shall submit an Elevation Certificate marked “construction drawings” with the building permit application. This Elevation Certificate shall be used to determine that the proposed design is in compliance with the Marin County Code 23.09. After the foundation is built and the elevation of the lowest floor is determined, another Elevation Certificate shall be submitted that is marked “building under construction.” This will document the elevation of surrounding grades and the lowest floor to ensure they comply with the approved plans before further construction is allowed. Once construction on the building is finished and all adjacent grading is finalized, a complete and correct “finished-construction” Elevation Certificate must be submitted by the applicant to show the “as-built” characteristics of the building. A “finished- l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 422 construction” Elevation Certificate must be received, reviewed, and corrected (if necessary) before a final inspection can be scheduled. At this point, all other required certificates must also be submitted and reviewed. Standard Operating Procedure: A final Elevation Certificate is required as a condition to be completed before the final inspection of the building permit. Prior to issuance a hold is placed on the permit pending the submittal of the Elevation Certificate to the Department of Public Works (DPW). As part of the County’s efforts to comply with NFIP, Marin County and the Marin OA Hazard Mitigation Working Group will annually review and make updates and revisions to these regulations as necessary to ensure they are most effective at minimizing the threat of harm from flood events. These updates and revisions may be promoted by changes in local demographics, shifts in land use, changes to flood regimes such as frequency and intensity of flood events, and other factors that may warrant action. The County will also continue to incorporate any changes to the locations and designations of mapped floodplains into future planning documents, including future updates to this Plan. The County will also explore opportunities to enforce or enhance County ordinances, building code, and other regulatory actions to address substantial improvements/substantial damage properties. Marin County will consider developing a Substantial Damage Management Plan. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 423 4.5 MITIGATION GOALS The information developed from the risk assessment was used as the primary basis for developing mitigation goals and objectives. Mitigation goals are defined as general guidelines explaining what each jurisdiction wants to achieve in terms of hazard and loss prevention. Hazard Risk Prioritization Mitigation Goals & Objectives Mitigation Project Identification Mitigation Project Implementation Goal statements are typically long-range, policy-oriented statements representing jurisdiction- wide visions. Objectives are statements that detail how each jurisdiction’s goals will be achieved, and typically define strategies or implementation steps to attain identified goals. Other important inputs to the development of jurisdiction-level goals and objectives include performing reviews of existing local plans, policy documents, and regulations for consistency and complementary goals, as well as soliciting input from the public. The following represents overarching strategic goals associated with the identification and eventual implementation of appropriate and meaningful hazard mitigation efforts in relation to prioritized hazards and threats confronting Marin County. These goals form the basis for specific supporting process objectives and are shown from the highest priority, at the top of the list, to those of lesser importance. The establishment of hazard mitigation goals represents both individual and collective strategies that have been mutually agreed upon by the Steering Committee and have changed with the 2023 MJHMP update. Objectives were added to Goals 2 and 5. Eventually, these goals have been adopted by Marin County and its participating jurisdictions as the guiding policy behind local hazard mitigation efforts, in conjunction with other associated principles. Goals were defined for the purpose of this mitigation plan as broad-based public policy statements that: • Represent basic desires of the community; • Encompass all aspects of community, public and private; • Are nonspecific, in that they refer to the quality (not the quantity) of the outcome; • Are future-oriented, in that they are achievable in the future; and • A time -independent, in that they are not scheduled events. Goals are stated without regard to implementation. Implementation cost, schedule, and means are not considered. Goals are defined before considering how to accomplish them so that they 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(i) [The hazard mi�ga�on strategy shall include a] descrip�on of mi�ga�on goals to reduce or avoid long‐term vulnerabili�es to the iden�fied hazards. 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 424 are not dependent on the means of achievement. Goal statements form the basis for objectives and actions that will be used as means to achieve the goals. Objectives define strategies to attain the goals and are more specific and measurable. Goal 1: Minimize risk and vulnerability of the community to the impacts of natural hazards and protect lives and reduce damages and losses to property, economy, and environment in Marin County. • Minimize economic and resource impacts and promote long-term viability and sustainability of resources throughout Marin County. • Minimize impact to both existing and future development. • Provide protection for public health. • Prevent and reduce wildfire risk and related losses. Goal 2: Provide protection for critical facilities, infrastructure, utilities, and services from hazard impacts. • Incorporate defensible space and reduce hazard vulnerability. • Develop redundancies in utilities and services. • Enhance resilience through enhanced construction. Goal 3: Improve public awareness, education, and preparedness for hazards that threaten our communities. • Enhance public outreach and participation in the Alert Marin Emergency Notification System. • Enhance public outreach, education, and preparedness program to include all hazards of concern. • Increase public knowledge about the risk and vulnerability to identified hazards and their recommended responses to disaster events, including evacuation and sheltering options. • Provide planning and coordination for "At-Risk" populations. • Provide planning and coordination for companion animals, livestock, and other animal populations. • Increase community awareness and participation in hazard mitigation projects and activities. Goal 4: Increase communities' capabilities to be prepared for, respond to, and recover from a disaster event. • Improve interagency (local, state, federal) emergency coordination, planning, training, and communication to ensure effective community preparedness, response and recovery. • Enhance collaboration and coordination of disaster-related plans, exercises, and training with local, state, and federal agencies, neighboring communities, private partners, and volunteers. • Enhance the use of shared resources/Develop a strong mutual aid support system. • Create and maintain a fully functional, interoperable radio and communication system with all regional public safety partners. Goal 5: Maintain FEMA Eligibility/Position the communities for grant funding. • Review hazard events and ongoing hazard mitigation projects annually. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 425 • Assess the need to pursue or adjust hazard mitigation projects after significant hazard events. Goal 6: Reduce exposure to High Hazard Dams that pose an unacceptable risk to the public. • Improve alert and warning systems to provide residents downstream of a High Hazard Dam to receive timely warning to evacuation when threatened by potential or imminent dam failure. • Enhance overall community preparedness to respond and evacuate a potential or imminent dam failure. • Increase public awareness of the risk posed by High Hazard Dams and the potential for relocation of housing outside a possible inundation zone. • Prioritize High Hazard Dam Mitigation projects and programs. 4.6 HAZARD MITIGATION ACTIONS The 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP was revised to reflect progress in local mitigation efforts. Mitigation projects were selected for each hazard and for Marin County and its participating jurisdictions based off the hazard risk assessment. The projects are supported by the mitigation goals and objectives, and are ranked using the following criteria; approximate cost, timeframe of completion, whether the project requires Board of Supervisors regulatory action, and an assumption as to whether or not the project would be subject to CEQA or NEPA requirements. Funding sources are identified for all projects. All projects consider new, future, and existing development. Project worksheets are used by the Planning Team and Steering Committee to describe criteria for each project. 4.6.1 PROGRESS IN LOCAL MITIGATION EFFORTS This plan has been created as a “living” document with input from the population and professionals within Marin County and its participating jurisdictions. Based on the planning meetings and the progress monitored by the steering committee members, several mitigation 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(ii) [The hazard mi�ga�on strategy shall include a] sec�on that iden�fies and analyzes a comprehensive range of specific mi�ga�on ac�ons and projects being considered to reduce the effects of each hazard, with par�cular emphasis on new and exis�ng buildings and infrastructure. All plans approved by FEMA a�er October 1, 2008, must also address the jurisdic�on’s par�cipa�on in the NFIP, and con�nued compliance with NFIP requirements, as appropriate. §201.6(c)(3)(iii) [The hazard mi�ga�on strategy shall include an] ac�on plan, describing how the ac�on iden�fied in paragraph (c)(3)(ii) of this sec�on will be priori�zed, implemented, and administered by the local jurisdic�on. Priori�za�on shall include a special emphasis on the extent to which benefits are maximized according to a cost benefit review of the proposed projects and their associated costs. §201.6(c)(3)(iv) For mul�‐jurisdic�onal plans, there must be iden�fiable ac�on items specific to the jurisdic�on reques�ng FEMA approval or credit of the plan. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 426 actions were accomplished since the last planning cycle. Table 4.8 provides a brief description of the progress made in the local mitigation efforts and the plan for those mitigation actions that were not completed or are ongoing. 4.6.2 STATUS OF PREVIOUS MITIGATION ACTIONS Table 4.8 summarizes the actions that were recommended in the previous version of the hazard mitigation plan and their implementation status at the time this update was prepared. Table 4.8: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions Action Number / Name Completed Ongoing Not Started Still Relevant Included in Updated Action Plan (1) Seismic Retrofit of County-owned buildings not current to code. West Marin Service Center, Point Reyes Station X N (2) Seismic Retrofit of County-owned buildings not current to code. Civic Center Roof Replacement X N (3) Seismic Retrofit of County-owned buildings not current to code. Tomales Fire Station- Replacement X N (4) Seismic Retrofit of County-owned buildings not current to code. 120 N. Redwood- Seismic Assessment X Y (5) Seismic Retrofit of County-owned buildings not current to code. Marin Center- Seismic Assessment of the Veteran's Memorial Auditorium & Exhibit Hall X Y 52 Follow all four phases of FEMA's How-to-Guide: "Integrating Historic Property and Cultural Resource Considerations Hazard Mitigation Planning" X N Acquire electric bikes and safety equipment for official use during major disasters. X N Arroyo Corte Madera del Presidio Riverine Flood Risk Reduction project: Assist with reducing the frequency and severity of flooding. Study completed on 03/2022 with the best option to move forward with a restoration project. X N Assess bulkheads surrounding Tomales Bay X Y Azalea Ave Bridge Replacement project will replace the original Azalea Bridge, to decrease flood hazards. Town of Fairfax is project lead. Bothin Marsh Restoration project. Thin-lift placement of sediment from Coyote Creek into Bothin Marsh. X Y Improve City of Novato Drainage Improvement informed by study currently in process. Goal to bypass high flows, increase storage, develop flood barriers, daylighting drainages, and install pump stations and/ or tide gates. X Y Conduct a comprehensive finished floor-elevation inventory. Project to understand a Floor Elevation Survey to determine the floor elevation of a structure. X N Consider sea level rise adaptation from Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaption Response Team (C-SMART). X Y l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 427 Table 4.8: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions Action Number / Name Completed Ongoing Not Started Still Relevant Included in Updated Action Plan Continue supporting the Sonoma County Water Agency led Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information effort. X Y Corrillo Drive Pipe Rehabilitation was completed by San Rafael in cooperation with flood zone 6. X N Corte Madera Creek Flood Risk Management Project will help to reduce the frequency of flooding by enhancing natural stream functions. An HMGP application for components in the channel that reduce flood risk was submitted August 4, 2023 X Y Cove Pump Station Improvements were completed in 2022 and will assist with the updates to the pump. X N Coyote Creek Levee Improvements - a levee study was completed, and a portion of the levee system has a project underway for seepage mitigation. It is in the design phase. X Y Crest Marin, Cardinal, and Shoreline Pump Station Upgrades. A condition assessment for Crest Marin is nearly complete. X Y Deer Island Basin Project to setback levees, restore tidal wetlands, and increase tidal prism to reduce sedimentation and flood risk. CEQA complete, design underway. X Y Develop Renters and Homeowners Guides to Flood Preparedness project outlining safety directives for homeowners and renters during a potential flood hazard. X Y Y Easkoot Creek Flood Flow Bypass Project. National Park Service is working with FHWA and the Flood District to identify and plan a potential overflow channel from Easkoot Creek to the Ocean. X Y East Creek Outfall Modifications project is a pavement rehabilitation project and potentially include tide gates to reduce sunny day flooding of Tiburon Blvd. X Y Encourage property owners in SFHAs to purchase flood insurance. X Y Establish additional local funding mechanisms for increased flood and fire mitigation. X Y Estancia Ditch and Pump Station improvement project. All pump stations in Santa Ventia were upgraded to the Trimble Unity systems. Additional upgrades needed. X Y Flood Preparedness Pilot Program identifies resources for flood preparedness on county website. X Y Gallinas Creek Geomorphic Dredge, currently in design phase for the placement of 100,000 cubic yards of dredge sediment X Y Initiate Community Plans for Adapting to Coastal Hazards X Y Karen Way Ditch Improvements is currently on hold X Y Las Gallinas Levee Evaluation provides geotechnical engineering service for the elevation and assessment consistent with the Corps of Engineers (USACE) Publication Number EM 1110-2-1913. X N l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 428 Table 4.8: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions Action Number / Name Completed Ongoing Not Started Still Relevant Included in Updated Action Plan Levee Setback and Upgrade Project. Initiation of this project depends on completion of a land exchange through State Lands Commission. County is working on surveying needed to support that exchange. X Y Lower Corte Madera Creek Improvements: Levee evaluation completed in 2020 under a DWR grant and a geomorphic dredge assessment in process to be completed in 2023 Y Lower Ryan Creek Pump Station Study and Upgrades is currently on hold Y Madrone Ave Bridge Replacement project will reduce impacts from floods. Town of San Anselmo is project lead. Manzanita Modifications Project. Caltrans is working on a project initiation document for December 2023 for sea level rise adaptation at the US 101/SR 1 between Manzanita and Marin City. County is supporting this work through hydraulic studies. X Y Marin City Drainage Improvements Project, currently in the planning phase of project. X Y Marin County Structure Elevation Program provides federal assistance to homeowners with cost- effective projects. FEMA funding approved; 7 permits are being reviewed. X Y Marin County Watershed Program provides a framework to integrate flood protection and environmental restoration with public and private partners to protect and enhance Marin’s watersheds. X N McInnis Park Wetland Restoration Project proposes to restore subtidal and intertidal habitat at an 180- acre are of diked wetlands. X Y Meadow Drive Interceptor and Ditch Upgrades. Interim upgrades were made by adding an in-line check valve to prevent tides from flooding Meadow Dr. No funding (or local match) currently available for full conceptual upgrades to proceed to design. X Y Mill Valley Comprehensive Flood Control & Drainage Master Plan X N Nokomis Ave Bridge Replacement project will assist with the replacement of the Nokomis Ave Bridge, with the hopes of reducing flood hazards. Town of San Anselmo is project lead. Novato Levee Study, completed in 2020 under a DWR grant. X N Pacheco Pond Project is currently on hold X Y Protect and restore natural buffers. Two funded and completed nature-based studies explored the feasibility of these projects and follow up work is now happening through the Stinson ARC project and through pursuit of other grant opportunities. X Y Pump Station No. 1 Upgrade is currently on hold. X Y l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 429 Table 4.8: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions Action Number / Name Completed Ongoing Not Started Still Relevant Included in Updated Action Plan Pump Station No. 2 Upgrade, and interconnection to Pump Station No. 1 is currently on hold. X Y Pump Station No. 5 Upgrade on hold. X Y Richardson Bay Shoreline Protection work is to be integrated into future sea level rise adaptation planning. X Y Y Ross Valley 10 Year Work Plan described technical rationale for a suite of on-the-ground flood reduction measures, spread watershed-wide, that work together as a system to reduce flooding and seek to restore the ecological health and function of Corte Madera Creek and its tributaries X N Rush Creek Drainage Improvements is currently on hold X Y San Anselmo Flood Risk Reduction Project. Construction of flood detention basin on Fairfax Creek was substantially completed and the basin operational in November 2022. The outfall pipe slide gate can be operated manually and pending installation of electrical paneling March 2023 for electrical control operation. The project to remove the building bridge in downtown San Anselmo is in the final planning phase X Y Santa Venetia and Rafael Meadows Street Drain Upgrades. Coordinating with County Engineering to include drainage upgrades with road rehabilitation projects. Labrea Way, vulnerable to recurrent stormwater ponding, is currently in design. X Y Santa Venetia Pump Station No. 4 Upgrades on hold X Y Santa Venetia Floodwall Project (Formerly the Santa Veneita Timber-Reinforced Berm Improvement Project) X Y Seismic Retrofit of County-owned buildings not current to code. X Y Seismic upgrades (bolting and anchoring pumps and roof) to the Cove Pump Station building in Tiburon. X Y Simmons Slough Flood Risk Reduction Project X N Strawberry Levee Improvements will be incorporated into sea level rise planning X Y Y The Sycamore Ave Bridge Replacement project will reduce the impact of flooding. Town of San Anselmo is project lead and federally funded. Tiburon Street Drainage Improvements Plan identifies support to the town of Tiburon's storm drainage, providing upgrades to the Cove Stormwater pump station. X Y The upgrade Farmers, Cheda, and Lynwood pump stations is currently on hold. X Y l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 430 Table 4.8: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions Source: Marin County 4.6.3 NEW MITIGATION ACTIONS Based on the hazard profiles, threat assessment, capabilities assessment, community survey results, discussions among the Hazard Mitigation Planning Team members, and existing best practices, a set of potential mitigation actions was developed and then evaluated based on the following criteria: • FEMA requires local governments to evaluate the monetary and non-monetary costs and benefits of potential mitigation actions. Although local governments are not required to assign specific dollar values to each action, they should identify the general size of costs and benefits. • The Hazard Mitigation Planning Team may elect to include measures with a high cost or low benefits, but such measures should be clearly beneficial to the community and an appropriate use of local resources. In addition, FEMA directs local governments to consider the following questions as part of the financial analysis: • What is the frequency and severity of the hazard type to be addressed by the action, and how vulnerable is the community to this hazard? • What impacts of the hazard will the action reduce or avoid? • What benefits will the action provide to the community? The Hazard Mitigation Planning Team also chose to review and revise the potential hazard mitigation actions with consideration for climate impact and social vulnerability. Projects and programs were assessed with consideration of these variables. Prioritization As part of the mitigation actions development and review, t he Hazard Mitigation Planning Team also prioritized the actions. The prioritization efforts looked at the risks and threats from each hazard; lifesaving, life safety, property protection and lastly environmental protection; financial costs and benefits; technical feasibility; consideration for climate impact, and social vulnerability, and community values. Hazard Mitigation Planning Team members were asked to identify their priority actions using the following criteria. Table 4.8: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions Action Number / Name Completed Ongoing Not Started Still Relevant Included in Updated Action Plan The West Creek Flood Wall Alternative Restoration Project is currently on hold. X Y The Winship Bridge Replacement project will reduce the impact of flooding. Town of Ross is the project lead and federally funded. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 431 Implementation priority ratings were assigned as follows: • High Priority - An action that meets multiple objectives, is linked to a high risk hazard, has benefits that exceed costs, and has a potential source of funding. Action can begin within the short term (1 to 5 years). • Medium Priority - An action that meets multiple objectives, is linked to a high or medium risk hazard, has benefits that exceed costs, and is eligible for funding though no funding has yet been secured for it. Action can begin within the short term (1 to 5 years) once funding is secured. • Low Priority - An action that will mitigate the risk of a hazard, has benefits that do not exceed the costs or are difficult to quantify, has no secured source of funding, and is not eligible for any known grant funding. Action can be completed in the long term (1 to 10 years). Low-priority actions may be eligible for grant funding from programs that have not yet been identified. Table 4.9 lists the Current Hazard Mitigation Actions for Marin County. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 432 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-1 Develop a Vulnerable Communities Index specific to Marin County, aggregating economic, gender, age, linguistic, ethnic, and racial characteristics; geographic locations; hazard impact; and adaptive capacity. All Hazards 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 County of Marin - CDA New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, CDC, CDPH Public Health Emergency Preparedness 2-5 years Medium Safety Element Action CA Dept. of Public Health - Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) MC-2 Develop a climate change preparedness outreach program for higher risk populations. All Hazards 1, 3 County of Marin – CDA, OEM/Fire, Fire Agencies New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium Safety Element Action MC-3 Provide grants for alternative housing to community members at risk of climate change impacts. All Hazards 1, 3 County of Marin – CDA, OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 5+ years Low Safety Element Action MC-4 Mitigate by planning in advance for climate change impacts and incorporating lessons learned in neighboring counties. All Hazards All goals County of Marin – OEM/Fire, CDA, DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium Safety Element Action MC-5 Develop a Property Rating System. All Hazards 1 County of Marin - CDA New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium Safety Element Action MC-6 Develop Resilience Hubs. All Hazards 1, 2, 4 County of Marin – CDA New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium Safety Element Action I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 433 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-7 Focus improvements on the transportation network for risk reduction, especially informed by new and emerging climate risk. All Hazards 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – CDA New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-8 Conduct study to identify natural methods to limit coastal erosion Land Subsidence 1, 4, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-9 Conduct research on best natural methods to mitigate erosion on highways and roads and implement planning and strategy stage. Land Subsidence 1, 4, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-5 years Low MC-10 Conduct research on best natural methods to mitigate erosion in and around rivers and streams and implement planning and strategy stage. Land Subsidence 1, 2, 4, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-5 years Low MC-11 Addition of vegetation in soil eroded areas. Land Subsidence 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-12 Increase conventional storage that is filled during high-flow periods Drought, Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 5+ Years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 434 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-13 Provide multilingual outreach on mitigation tactics to well-dependent residents Drought 1, 3 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-14 Conduct Outreach and acquire grants to pass to rural communities for installing Rainwater Harvesting systems Drought 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-15 Identify alternative water supplies for times of drought; mutual aid agreements with alternative suppliers Drought 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-16 Remove non-native plants and trees from all County and City and Town facilities, replace with drought tolerant, native plants Flooding, Drought 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-17 Turn soil to increase infiltration rate and pore space to absorb more water Flooding, Drought 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-18 Encourage soil turning on private land Flooding, Drought 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 435 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-19 Install new HVAC systems at schools and critical infrastructure facilities Heat 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-20 Implement non-AC solutions to cool buildings - green roof and nature- based infrastructure systems Heat 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-21 Paint roofs with pigments to reduce heat inside buildings Heat 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-22 Outreach to communities at high risk of heat impacts Heat 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-23 Establish policy for cooler homes / Earthship homes Heat 1, 4, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-24 Provide grants for high-risk residents to improve and acquire cooling mechanism in home. Heat 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 436 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-25 Provide alternative locations and equitable response actions for residents to seek cooler environments (e.g., movie theaters) via regional heat response plans Heat 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 0-2 years Medium MC-26 Establish additional and expand functionality of heating, cooling centers and resiliency hubs. Heat 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-27 Replace concrete sidewalks with DG Heat, Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-28 Implement green streets initiatives in identified areas Heat, Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-29 Install green roofs on public buildings supported by non-potable water Heat, Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-30 Conduct a whole county study on what areas could benefit from more shaded areas; a green streets program. Heat, Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 437 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-31 Conduct study on how much concrete can be removed Heat, Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-32 Implement countywide flood monitoring system to inform mitigation future projects Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-33 Conduct research on widening storm channels and aged infrastructure which has not been climate change adapted and in need of enhancements Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-5 years Low MC-34 Widen storm channels in high- density areas and urban settings Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 5-10 years Low MC-35 Develop policy to remove concrete parking lots Flooding 1, 4, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-36 Expand culverts in areas classified as 100- or 500-year flood plain Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 5-10 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 438 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-37 Assess County and Town owned parking lots to implement catch basins Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM/Fire, Cities and Towns New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-38 Design creek restoration projects on East and West Creek to improve flood conveyance capacity Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-39 Marin City Stormwater improvement project to limit standing water and flooding. Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-7 years High MC-40 Research, design, and construct the Santa Venetia Floodwall Project Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 5-10 years Low MC-41 Novato Bypass improvement project to reduce flooding Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-7 years Low MC-42 Corte Madera Creek Flood Risk Management Project Phase 1, Access Ramp and Granton Park Pump Station Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin – DPW New $4,104,227.00 bid + contingency. 50% reimbursed by DWR Grant, 50% paid by FCZ 9. 2-5 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 439 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-43 Develop Integrated Flood Modeling System to New Weather Radars Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-44 Apply below grade waterproofing and implement other water-intrusion mitigation measures to protect facilities that are experiencing increased levels of hydrostatic pressure. Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-45 Cardinal Rd Levee Upgrade - Seepage Mitigation for a segment of Coyote Creek Levee (~1,000 LF) Flooding, Sea Level Rise 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-46 Conduct sea level rise vulnerability analysis of County Flood Control District-owned and operated flood control assets Flooding, Sea Level Rise 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-47 Harden the North San Pedro Road Improvement at China Camp to preserve the transportation corridor through China Camp State Park. Preserve the corridor for emergency evacuations route and future sea level rise. Flooding, Sea Level Rise 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-48 Construct coarse-grained beach marsh and shoreline edge restoration to inhibit marsh and bay coastal shoreline edge erosion due to wind-wave erosion and SLR Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 440 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-49 Construct Corte Madera Creek Flood Risk Management Project Phase 1, Lower COM Restoration Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin – DPW New Cost Estimate $3,000,000. 50% eligible for reimbursement by DWR Grant, 50% to be covered by FCZ 9 with additional construction grant funding being sought. 2-7 years Medium 100% design, seeking additional construction funding MC-50 Reduce impacts from Sea level rise and protect natural storm barriers by researching and restoring Tiscornia Marsh and other wetlands and marsh areas Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire, City of San Rafael New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-10 years Medium MC-51 Create offshore wetlands in low lying areas susceptible to climate driven sea level rise Sea Level Rise 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-52 Implement vegetation in coastal areas to limit sea level rise and storm surge Sea Level Rise 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-53 Enhance public awareness of evolving flood risk hazards due to sea level rise, both on county's coast and bay side Sea Level Rise 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – DPW, OEM New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-5 years, ongoing Medium I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 441 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-54 Novato Baylands Resilience Projects - including, Levee Improvements, Setback Levee Construction, Pump Station Construction and Tidal Restoration Sea Level Rise 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-10 years Low MC-55 Geomorphic dredging of Tidal Flood Control Channels and Thin-Lift Marsh Augmentation for SLR Resiliency Sea Level Rise 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-7 years Low MC-56 Southern Marin Levee Improvements and New Levee Construction with Associated Pumping for Direct Coastal Flooding Impacts Sea Level Rise 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – DPW New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-7 years High MC-57 Complete designs and implement wetland restoration project to protect Bothin Marsh Open Space Preserve and Bay Trail Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin – Parks New $25,000,000 General Funds/Grants FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 15 years Medium Preliminary designs completed MC-58 Develop designs and implement wetland resilience improvements along shoreline of Bolinas Lagoon Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin – Parks New $15,000,000 General Funds/Grants FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 15 years Low Letter Property and Pine Gulch Creek MC-59 Develop designs and implement McInnis Marsh and Bucks Landing wetland resilience features Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin – Parks New $35,000,000 General Funds/Grants FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 15 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 442 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-60 Develop plan to prioritize high value areas of potential wetland expansion Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin – Parks New $500,000 General Funds/Grants FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 3 years Low MC-61 Research, Plan, and Construct Tsunami Evacuation structures near high-risk areas vulnerable to tsunami inundation Tsunami 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-10 years Low MC-62 Enhance public awareness of mitigation approaches for tsunami, including on bay side of county Tsunami 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years, ongoing Medium MC-63 Provide incentives to guide development away from high-risk areas Tsunami 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-64 Plan for tsunami evacuation routes Tsunami 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-65 Put signage in place for evacuation routes Tsunami 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years High I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 443 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-66 Research, Analyze, and Harden schools in tsunami inundation zones Tsunami 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-10 years Medium MC-67 Harden piers and boat ramps to withstand tsunami forces Tsunami 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-68 Create barriers around public safety water resources to mitigate tsunami forces Tsunami 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-69 Harden and lift critical infrastructure in 1 and 3 feet for sea level rise areas. Sea Level Rise, Flooding, Tsunami 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-10 years Low MC-70 Strengthen roads to withstand natural hazards like fires and water inundation. Reduce regulatory impediments to road construction, widening, and other improvements by amending relevant sections of Marin County Code Titles 22, 23, and 24 to eliminate discretionary permit requirements and replace them with ministerial review to ensure that both public and private roads comply with codified engineering standards Wildfire, Flooding 1, 2, 4, 5 County of Marin – CDA, DPW, Fire Agencies New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-10 years Low Safety Element Activity I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 444 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-71 Review permit processes to ensure that all applications for new development comply with fire safety and building code standards, including but not limited to ensuring the provision of adequate water supply for fire suppression and fire flow requirements. Wildfire 1, 4, 5 County of Marin – CDA, Fire Agencies New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-5 years Medium Safety Element Activity MC-72 Electric signage for in VHFD and HFD areas alerting residents on red flag days Wildfire 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM, HHS New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-73 Amend Wildlands Urban Interface (WUI) Regulations. Work with Marin Fire agencies to prepare and adopt WUI regulations for new development and substantial remodels to reduce fire hazards. Track and update standards as the areas of high and extreme fire hazard areas are defined. Wildfire 1, 4, 5 County of Marin – CDA, Fire agencies New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium Safety Element Activity MC-74 Identify Areas with Insufficient Evacuation Opportunities. Wildfire 1, 5 County of Marin – CDA, Fire Agencies New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium Safety Element Activity MC-75 Remove hazardous trees and vegetation, including non-native species throughout the High and Very High Fire Danger Areas. Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-10 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 445 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-76 County-wide assessment of hazardous trees and vegetation Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-77 Deploy additional AI cameras for fire ignition and detection Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-78 Conduct research on impact of wildfire smoke on southeastern portion of the county Wildfire 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-5 years Low MC-79 Create green breaks in county in VHFD and HFD Areas Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-80 Expand fuel management by collaborating with land management agencies Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-81 Encourage vegetation modification at private residences Wildfire 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 446 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-82 Conduct a county wide fuels study to understand how different vegetation would behave when ignited Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-83 Conduct a vegetation study in high and very high fire hazard areas Wildfire 1, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-84 Implement culturally informed (especially native tribal culture) wildfire mitigation projects Wildfire 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-85 Encourage fire resistant construction and landscaping Wildfire 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-86 Exceed codes and standards for fire resistant construction Wildfire 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years High MC-87 Harden fire roads to withstand impacts from natural hazards Wildfire 1, 2, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 447 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-88 Conduct brush clearance around fire roads Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-89 Provide grants to harden existing structures against fires Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-90 Plant native fire-resistant vegetation Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-91 Conduct brush clearance around evacuation routes Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-92 Deploy livestock to remove vegetation Wildfire 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-93 Collaborate with land management agencies to manage vegetation in open space and common space areas Wildfire 1, 2, 5 Co County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 448 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-94 Provide direct assistance to property owners in need of vegetation management to improve defensible space Wildfire 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-95 Retrofit any current roads, highways and bridges to endure high magnitude earthquakes in areas with 0.55 or higher shaking intensity. Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-96 Establish policy for soft story homes Earthquake 1, 4, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-97 Research and assess current roads, highways, and bridges probability to endure a high magnitude earthquake Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-5 years Low MC-98 Replace or enhance water and sewage pipes and joints within areas vulnerable to liquefaction with flex pipes or alternate infrastructure. Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-10 years Low MC-99 Retrofit all County and City and Town facilities to withstand large earthquakes. Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire, Cities and Towns New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-10 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 449 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-100 Identify pre-1933 school buildings and critical infrastructure Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-101 Retrofit all critical infrastructure to resist severe earthquake shaking above 0.55 intensity. Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-15 years Low MC-102 Expand community outreach to Great Shakeout Drill – Use Shaker trailer Earthquake 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-103 Outreach to hospitals and other critical care facilities on infrastructure risk Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium MC-104 Conduct Research on impacts of San Andreas Fault in West Marin Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-5 years Medium MC-105 Provide outreach and education on San Andreas Fault in West Marin Earthquake 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Medium I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 450 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-106 Study dam spillways and emergency spillways, specifically for seepage and to reassess geological assumptions Dam Inundation 1, 2, 5, 6 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-107 Widen dam spillways in areas where dams may receive additional water due to climate change Dam Inundation 1, 2, 5, 6 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 5-15 years Low MC-108 Harden dam spillway infrastructure to prevent spillway failures during controlled / emergency releases Dam Inundation 1, 2, 5, 6 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 5-15 years Low MC-109 Research effective methods to strengthen wind load for existing utilities and critical infrastructure High Wind 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC, BRIC technical assistance 2-5 years Low MC-110 Conduct geotechnical survey of slope stability county wide Debris Flow 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low MC-111 Seed and transplant fire resistant and native plants and trees on vulnerable sloped areas Debris Flow 1, 2, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years Low I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 451 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-112 Outreach and education to areas at risk of debris flow Debris Flow 1, 3, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-5 years, ongoing Medium MC-113 Acquire land and or design new codes for areas in high-risk landslide areas and minimize new construction via policy recommendations Debris Flow 1, 2, 4, 5 County of Marin – OEM / Fire New TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 2-10 years Low MC-114 Marin County Structure Elevation Program Flooding 1, 2, 4, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing, New $4M General Funds/Grants (HMGP) 0-5 years In progress Provides federal assistance to homeowners with cost- effective projects. FEMA funding approved and 7 permits are being reviewed MC-115 Seismic Retrofit of County-owned buildings not current to code. Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Staff also continue gathering available seismic assessment data on County-owned (and possibly leased sites in the future) facilities. This information will be brought into an asset management database, which is in the early stages of development, and will support risk assessment and work plan development I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 452 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-116 Seismic Retrofit of County-owned buildings not current to code. 120 N. Redwood- Seismic Assessment Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin - DPW, CDA Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Local hazard mitigation by the States Office MC-117 Seismic Retrofit of County-owned buildings not current to code. Marin Center- Seismic Assessment of the Veteran's Memorial Auditorium & Exhibit Hall Earthquake 1, 2, 5 County of Marin - DPW, CDA Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants HMPG, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Completed assessment, and HMGP grant secured for upgrades. Seismic retrofit work at the Exhibit Hall completed in November 2022. The retrofit design work for the Veterans' Memorial Auditorium is complete. Construction work anticipated to run from April 2023 thru January 2024. MC-118 San Anselmo Flood Risk Reduction Project. Flooding 1, 2, 5 San Anselmo is project lead Existing (2018) $17.6M/ Flood Zone 9/ General Funds/Grants (DWR, HMGP application) 0-5 years In progress Construction of flood detention basin on Fairfax Creek was substantially completed and the basin operational in November 2022. Outfall pipe slide gate can be operated manually and pending installation of electrical paneling March 2023 for electrical control operation. The project to remove the building bridge in downtown San Anselmo is in the final planning phase I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 453 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-119 Arroyo Corte Madera del Presidio Riverine (Corte Madera Creek) Flood Risk Management Project Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $14M/Flood Zone 9: General Funds/Grants (DWR, applications for FEMA, NOAA) 0-5 years In progress Construction in progress through 2023 - The Marin County Flood Control and Water Conservation District (District) proposed the Corte Madera Creek Flood Risk Management Project, Phase 1 to reduce the 25-year flood risk along Corte Madera Creek in the Town of Ross and unincorporated Kentfield and to enhance natural stream functions. An HMGP application for components in the channel that reduce flood risk was submitted August 4, 2023 MC-120 Azalea Ave Bridge Replacement Flooding 1, 5 Town of Fairfax Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years Town of Fairfax is project lead. MC-121 Nokomis Ave Bridge Replacement Flooding 1, 5 Town of San Anselmo Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years Town of San Anselmo is project lead. MC-122 Madrone Ave Bridge Replacement Flooding 1, 5 Town of San Anselmo Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years Town of San Anselmo is project lead. I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 454 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-123 Winship Bridge Replacement Flooding 1, 5 Town of Ross Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years Town of Ross is the project lead. MC-124 Sycamore Ave bridge replacement Flooding 1, 5 Town of San Anselmo Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years Currently on hold. A watershed study has been scoped out, but not enough funding has been identified. MC-125 Lower Corte Madera Creek Improvements Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $2M/Flood Zone 9/ General Funds/Grants (DWR) 0-5 years In progress Currently on hold MC-126 Continue supporting the Sonoma County Water Agency led Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information effort. Flooding 1, 4, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $1.5M General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Working to expand storm drainage improvement planning into Nave Gardens through a Flood District funded study currently underway through 2023. The study is looking at ways of most effectively bypassing high flows and potential options such as increasing storage, building flood barriers, daylighting drainages, and installing pump stations and/or tide gates. Funding for future improvements would likely be sought through FEMA HMGP. I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 455 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-127 Pacheco Pond Project - flood flow diversion to wetlands to improve water quality and habitat. Upgrade title gages. Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Annual outreach conducted in October MC-128 Deer Island Basin Project to setback levees, restore tidal wetlands, and increase tidal prism to reduce sedimentation and flood risk. Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $10M/ Flood Zone 1/ General Funds/Grants (SFBRA grant) 0-5 years In progress National Park Service is working with FHWA and the Flood District to identify and plan a potential overflow channel from Easkoot Creek to the Ocean. MC-129 Rush Creek Drainage Improvements Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 2-3 years Low During final design of the levee upgrade in February 2022, the engineer’s updated construction cost estimate came in at $12M, exceeding the project’s available funding for project design and construction. The District continues to track opportunities for project construction funding. MC-130 The upgrade Farmers, Cheda, and Lynwood pump stations Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years Low Interim upgrades were made by adding an in-line check valve to prevent tides from flooding Meadow Dr. No funding (or local match) currently available for full conceptual upgrades to proceed to design. I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 456 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-131 City of Novato Drainage Improvement Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Flood Zone 1/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Currently on hold MC-132 Encourage property owners in SFHAs to purchase flood insurance. Flooding 1, 3, 5 County of Marin - DPW, OEM/Fire Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC Ongoing In progress Currently on hold MC-133 Easkoot Creek Flood Flow Bypass Project. (National Park Service/ FHWA project being scoped currently as part of parking lot work) Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Currently on hold MC-134 Santa Venetia Floodwall Project (Formerly the Santa Venetia Timber-Reinforced Berm Improvement Project) Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $12 Million General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Coordinating with County Engineering to include drainage upgrades with road rehabilitation projects. Labrea Way, vulnerable to recurrent stormwater ponding, is currently in design. MC-135 Meadow Drive Interceptor and Ditch Upgrades. Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years Low Currently in design phase for the placement of 100,000 cubic yards of dredge sediment. Goal to support navigation and storm drain outfall. MC-136 Santa Venetia Pump Station No. 4 Upgrades on hold Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $3M/ Flood Zone 7 General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress In 2021, County and Parks staff received a grant from the San Francisco Bay Restoration Authority (SFBRA) Measure AA I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 457 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress Bay region wetlands grant program. This grant funding will allow the McInnis Marsh Restoration project to continue work on final design, compliance with the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and permitting including the proposed CSA 6 Gallinas Creek geomorphic dredge project. Note that the proposed McInnis Marsh Restoration project is not currently funded for implementation. MC-137 Pump Station No. 2 Upgrade, and interconnection to Pump Station No. 1 is currently on hold. Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $3M General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Initiation of this project depends on completion of a land exchange through State Lands Commission. County is working on surveying needed to support that exchange. MC-138 Pump Station No. 5 Upgrade Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $3M General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Currently on hold MC-139 Santa Venetia and Rafael Meadows Street Drain Upgrades. Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress In 2022 all pump stations in Santa Venetia were upgrade to Trimble Unity System for alerts and notifications to staff. Funding for additional I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 458 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress upgrades not available at this time. MC-140 Gallinas Creek Geomorphic Dredge Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $3M/ County Service Area 6/ General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Flood district is supporting the Town of Tiburon's storm drainage master plan implementation out by designing the upgrade to the Cove Stormwater Pump Station (construction completed, Project 33 in 2018 LHMP) to have capacity to handle the increased flows that would be conveyed to the station by the full buildout of the Town's master plan. MC-141 McInnis Park Wetland Restoration Project Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Currently on hold MC-142 Levee Setback and Upgrade Project. Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Integrated into future sea level rise adaptation planning. I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 459 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-143 Pump Station No. 1 Upgrade Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $2M General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress On hold due to lack of property owner easements. Considering a creek restoration project instead. MC-144 Estancia Ditch and Pump Station improvement project Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $4M/ Flood Zone 7/ General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Coordinating with Caltrans on a scheduled 2024 pavement rehabilitation project to potentially include tide gates to reduce sunny day flooding of Tiburon Blvd. MC-145 Tiburon Street Drainage Improvements Plan Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress A levee study was completed, and a portion of the levee system has a project underway for seepage mitigation. It is in the design phase. MC-146 Karen Way Ditch Improvements Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost/ Flood Zone 4/ General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Currently in the planning phase of project. MC-147 Strawberry Levee Improvements Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $1M / Flood Zone 4/ General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Integrated into future sea level rise adaptation planning. MC-148 West Creek Flood Wall Alternative Restoration Project Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 5-10 years In progress The district is working with the County's Parks Department to evaluate a potential pilot project for thin-lift placement of sediment from Coyote I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 460 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress Creek in Bothin Marsh. It would require a Measure AA grant to design, permit, construct, and monitor. MC-149 East Creek Outfall Modifications Project Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $10M/ Flood Zone 4/ General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 3 years In progress Caltrans is working on a project initiation document for December 2023 for sea level rise adaptation at the US 101/SR 1 between Manzanita and Marin City. County is supporting this work through hydraulic studies. MC-150 Coyote Creek Levee Improvements Flooding 1, 2, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $40M/ Flood Zone 3/ General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Currently on hold MC-151 Marin City Drainage Improvements Project Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Following the condition assessment design will proceed in 2024. After construction of the crest Marin improvements a study of Cardinal and shoreline pump stations and associated drainage is anticipated. MC-152 Richardson Bay Shoreline Protection work is to be integrated into future sea level rise adaptation planning. Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $150M TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 5-10 years In progress County maintains a flood preparedness webpage with resources and information for landowners. I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 461 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-153 Bothin Marsh Restoration project Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $2.4 M General Funds/Flood Zone 3/Grants (SFBRA application in progress) 5-10 years In progress Ongoing through Local Coastal Program update, funded and completed, nature-based adaptation studies, and the Safety Element update. MC-154 Manzanita Modifications Project. To support/supplement a Caltrans project Flooding, Sea Level Rise 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Funded through Ocean Protection Council grant and AARPA funds. Ongoing Stinson Beach Adaptation and Resilience Collaboration (Stinson ARC) project. MC-155 Lower Ryan Creek Pump Station Study and Upgrades Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $2.5M/ Flood Zone 3/ General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 5-10 years In progress Project has not started due to lower community priority. However, the project has not been abandoned and may be completed in the next year. MC-156 Crest Marin, Cardinal, and Shoreline Pump Station Upgrades. Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) $7.5M/ Floods Zone 3/ General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years In progress Two funded and completed nature-based studies explored the feasibility of these projects and follow up work is now happening through the Stinson ARC project and through pursuit of other grant opportunities. MC-157 Flood Preparedness Pilot Program Flooding 1, 3, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) Negligible cost General funds 0-5 years In progress In Progress I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 462 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/Progress MC-158 Consider sea level rise adaptation from Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaption Response Team (C- SMART). Sea Level Rise 1, 4, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC Ongoing In progress MC-159 Initiate Community Plans for Adapting to Coastal Hazards Flooding, Sea Level, Rise, Tsunami 1, 2, 3, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC Ongoing In progress MC-160 Develop Renters and Homeowners Guides to Flood Preparedness project Flooding 1, 3, 5 County of Marin - DPW, OEM Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC 0-5 years Low MC-161 Protect and restore natural buffers. Flooding 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC Ongoing In progress MC-162 Assess bulkheads surrounding Tomales Bay Flooding (coastal) 1, 5 County of Marin - DPW Existing (2018) TBD Cost General Funds/Grants/ FMA, DWR, HMGP, BRIC Ongoing In progress Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions Source: Marin County I ~'?U .. N. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 463 4.7 PLAN INTEGRATION For hazard mitigation planning, “integration” means that hazard mitigation information is used in other relevant planning mechanisms, such as general planning, capital facilities planning, emergency management, hazard specific planning, and that relevant information from those sources is also used in hazard mitigation. This section identifies where such integration is already in place from the 2018 MJHMP, and where the 2023 MJHMP will be used for further integration. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management will be the central coordination point for maintaining this plan and will serve as a lead staff for grant project applications on the countywide projects selected for application under the Hazard Mitigation Assistance grant programs. Additionally, each participating jurisdiction applying for grant funds on its own will serve as lead staff for project implementation with assistance from the County and participating Steering Committee members as requested. An important integration mechanism that is highly effective and low-cost is incorporation of the hazard mitigation plan recommendations and their underlying principles into other county, city and town plans and mechanisms. Where possible, plan participants will use existing plans and/or programs to implement hazard mitigation actions. Mitigation is most successful when it is incorporated into the day-to-day functions and priorities of government and development. As described in this plan’s capability assessment, Marin County and its jurisdictions already implement policies and programs to reduce losses to life and property from hazards. This plan builds upon the momentum developed through previous and related planning efforts and mitigation programs and recommends implementing actions, where possible, through these other program mechanisms. These existing mechanisms include: • County, City and Town general and master plans - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of hazards most likely to impact the County. These hazards are considered in the Safety Element, Housing Element and Open Space Element. • County, City and Town Emergency Operations Plans - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of the Town’s planned response to hazards most likely to impact the Town. • County, City and Town ordinances - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of plans and policies outlined in the capability assessments in the jurisdictional annexes. • Flood/storm water management/master plans - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of strategies to reduce flood risk and storm water management for the protection of life and property. • Community Wildfire Protection plan - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of strategies to reduce fire hazard and the risk of catastrophic wildfires in the WUI, while promoting the protection and enhancement of the county’s economic assets and ecological resources. • Capital improvement plans and budgets - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of strategies for the development and funding a critical facilities and infrastructure. • Other plans and policies outlined in the capability assessments in the jurisdictional annexes. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 464 • Other plans, regulations, and practices with a mitigation focus Steering Committee members involved in these other planning mechanisms will be responsible for integrating the findings and recommendations of this plan with these other plans, programs, etc., as appropriate. Implementation and incorporation into existing planning mechanisms will be done through the routine actions of: • Monitoring other planning/program agendas • Attending other planning/program meetings • Participating in other planning processes • Monitoring community budget meetings for other community program opportunities The successful implementation of this mitigation strategy will require constant and vigilant review of existing plans and programs for coordination and multi-objective opportunities that promote a safe, sustainable community. A few examples of incorporation of the MJHMP into existing planning mechanisms include: 1) As recommended by Assembly Bill 2140, each community should adopt (by reference or incorporation) this MJHMP into the Safety Element of their General Plans. Evidence of adoption (by formal, certified resolution) shall be provided to CalOES and FEMA 2) Integration of flood actions identified in this mitigation strategy with the actions and implementation priorities established in existing Flood Management Programs 3) Using the risk assessment information to update the hazards section in the County, City and Town Emergency Operations Plans Efforts should continuously be made to monitor the progress of mitigation actions implemented through these other planning mechanisms and, where appropriate, their priority actions should be incorporated into updates of this hazard mitigation plan. 4.8 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS Marin County’s abundance of natural, recreational, and scenic resources has supported a long history of open space preservation. Its rolling hills, expansive ranchlands, beaches, coastlines, and more are appreciated by both visitors and locals alike. This quote, from the Marin Independent Journal 1934 Editorial captures this sentiment: "No community on earth is more favored than Marin with the wealth and beauty of potential playgrounds. If we don’t acquire some of these lands, the opportunity will surely slip away from us.” In the 1960s, housing/transportation development proposals were underway throughout Marin County including for the Marin Headlands, outer coast, Tomales Bay area and more. Such proposals threatened Marin’s rural character and long heritage of family farming, sparking community activism which drew national attention. These efforts led to the employment of land use planning tools to ensure the County’s natural and agricultural areas remain protected in perpetuity. Establishment of the Point Reyes National Seashore in 1962, and a handful of other Federal/State Park units, ensured the protection of a large amount of the County’s most l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 465 cherished lands as publicly accessible open space. Additionally, the Marin Agricultural Land Trust, established in 1980, has placed agricultural conservation easements on over 60,000 acres of farmland, to ensure protection from development in perpetuity. Furthermore in 1972 the California Coastal Commission was established as a regulatory agency whose mission is “To protect, conserve, restore, and enhance the environment of the California coastline”. Pursuant to the California Coastal Act of 1976, the agency is tasked with the protection of a variety of resources including public access, habitat, and water quality. The Commission issues Coastal Development Permits, until a local agency has a certified Local Coastal Program (LCP), with a land use plan and implementation plan. West Marin’s coastal zone covers approximately 82,168 acres. Of this approximately 33,913 acres are owned and managed by the National Park Service, leaving 48.255 acres under County Jurisdiction subject to the LCP. This encompasses a handful of small communities along the Pacific Coast and Tomales Bay shorelines including Muir Beach, Stinson Beach, Bolinas, Inverness, Point Reyes Station, East Shore and Dillon Beach. New growth in these communities is limited by a variety of factors including few remaining undeveloped parcels; land use policies and plans which protect public access and natural resources; and environmental features such as the coast itself, Tomales Bay, and steep bluffs which naturally restrain development. Development in the County over the last 5 years has been limited due to build out, and similarly future development is limited by these same constraints. For this reason, development related considerations to plan updates were not applicable to the planning process. Instead, the plan was revised to consider regional development trends and incorporation of new science such as potential climate change impacts. Marin County has focused on sea level rise planning and climate action for several years. Currently, the LCP is being updated to reflect the changing risks to coastal areas and develop appropriate policies and actions to avoid and minimize the risk of disaster and harm to its residents, infrastructure and coastal resources. Coastal Act policies Sections 30210, 30240, and 30251 dictate that new development shall be safe from hazards and recognize that shoreline protective devices such as seawalls may be appropriate in certain instances to serve coastal- dependent uses or to protect existing structures or public beaches in danger from erosion. However, shoreline protective devices must be designed to eliminate or mitigate the adverse impacts on the sand supply of surrounding natural shorelines. Other development-limiting Coastal Act policies include: Section: 30210: Development shall not interfere with the public’s right of access to the sea including the use of beaches Section 30240: Environmentally Sensitive Habitat Areas (ESHA) shall be protected. Section 30251: The scenic and visual qualities of coastal areas shall be considered and protected as resources of public importance. The 2040 population projection for Marin County is 277,087 (Department of Finance). In order to accommodate population growth over the next several years, Marin County and its incorporated cities have implemented a number of land use plans and development policies to direct growth away from hazardous conditions. For example, as required by state law, the County and each l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 466 incorporated city have a general plan with a safety element that identifies hazards affecting the County and incorporated cities. Likewise, the County and the incorporated cities have a number of planning policies, such as floodplain ordinances and building codes, restricting new development in hazard areas and/or increasing construction requirements in hazard areas. In addition to steering away growth from hazard areas, Marin County and its incorporated cities have a history of aggressive growth management that seeks to limit growth overall and to direct it within the incorporated cities and urban areas of the unincorporated County. The 2007 Marin Countywide Plan was last updated in 2015 to reflect the theme of planning for sustainable communities. Twelve principles support this theme including the preservation of natural assets and the protection of agricultural assets in order to minimize development in open space. The plan is divided into specific elements, each with goals, policies, and implementation programs. The Plan’s land use pattern reflects existing development potential shifted to a degree from environmentally constrained sites to more appropriate locations. Specific Countywide Plan policies which limit urban development through the protection of open space resources include: • Biological Resources 1.1 Protect Wetland Habitats for Special-Status Species, Sensitive Natural Communities, and Important Wildlife Nursery Areas and Movement Corridors. • Biological Resources 1.2 Acquire Habitat • Biological Resources 2.1 Include Resource Preservation in Environmental Review Biological Resources 2.2 Limit Development Impacts • Biological Resources 3.1 Protect Wetlands • Biological Resources 4.1 Restrict Land Use in Stream Conservation Areas • Biological resources 5.1 Protect the Baylands Corridor • Biological Resources 5.2 Limit Development and Access • Biological Resources 5.3 Leave Tidelands in Their Natural State • Air 4.m Focus Development in Urban Corridors • Open Space 2.2 Continue to Acquire or Otherwise Preserve Open Space Countywide Open Space 2.4 Support Open Space Efforts Along Streams • Open Space 2.5 Support Open Space Efforts in the Inland Rural Corridor • Open Space 2.6 Support Open Space Efforts in the Coastal Corridor • Agriculture 1.1 Limit Residential Use • Agriculture 1.2 Encourage Contractual Protection • Agriculture 1.3 Preserve Agricultural Zoning • Agriculture 1.4 Limit Non-Agricultural Zoning • Agricultural 1.5 Restrict Subdivision of Agricultural Lands Within the Coastal, Inland Rural and Baylands Corridors • Agriculture 1.6 Limit Non-Agricultural Development • Additionally, the Plan includes policies to limit development in hazardous areas, including: • Environmental Hazards 3.a Regulate Development in Flood and inundation Areas • Environmental Hazards 3.e Restrict Development in Flood Prone Areas • Environmental Hazards 4.1 Limit Fire Risks to Structures l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 467 Implementation tools such as the County Development Code are used to carry out Countywide Plan goals. Some of the policies and programs in the Countywide Plan will require rezoning of individual properties for consistency with land use designations and policies. Furthermore, many unincorporated communities are guided by community plans which may include customized building and site design standards, ridgeline and view corridor protection mechanisms, home size regulations and more. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 468 SECTION 5.0: PLAN REVIEW, EVALUATION, AND IMPLEMENTATION The strategies presented are deemed appropriate and effective by recommendation of the Marin County OA Hazard Mitigation Steering Committee, senior management of local governments and public agencies, and individual organizations and groups that have participated in its creation, or reviewed the end product. 5.1 PLAN ADOPTION Upon submission to the California Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) for review, and subsequent approval by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Marin County OA MJHMP will be presented to local government for formal adoption. It will then be incorporated into local general plans for integration into organizational policy. 5.2 PLAN MONITORING AND PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT The process of hazard mitigation does not end with the completion, approval, and adoption of the Marin County OA MJHMP. During the five-year lifespan the Marin plan, the County, cities, towns and special districts, along with community-based organizations will ensure that the mitigation goals and strategies identified are exercised and monitored under a collaborative and cooperative umbrella, and that the document itself is properly maintained. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management, as lead coordinating agency for hazard mitigation planning within the Marin County OA, leads the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group that meets quarterly to review and manage the plan, projects, and programs. The review will identify changing community priorities, updated or new planning documents and the progress or status of the mitigation actions as detailed in the mitigation strategy. Additional questions to complete the review will be considered as follows: • Do the goals address current and expected conditions? • Are the goals and objectives consistent with changes in the local, state, and federal policy? • Status updates on all mitigation actions? • Have the hazards or risks changed? • Are current resources appropriate for implementing the MJHMP? • Have the outcomes occurred as expected? 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(d)(3) A local jurisdic�on must review and revise its plan to reflect changes in development, progress in local mi�ga�on efforts, and changes in priori�es, and resubmit if for approval within 5 years in order to con�nue to be eligible for mi�ga�on project grant funding. §201.6(d)(5) [The plan shall include…] Documenta�on that the plan has been formally adopted by the governing body of the jurisdic�on reques�ng approval of the plan (e.g., City Council, County commissioner, Tribal Council). For mul�‐jurisdic�onal plans, each jurisdic�on reques�ng approval of the plan must document that it has been formally adopted. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 469 • Is the County and jurisdictions or districts participating in the plan implementation process as expected? The Working Group is a subgroup of the Marin Disaster and Citizens Corps Council. During the five-year update cycle, the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group will have quarterly update meetings with the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee and local stakeholders to discuss revisions to the plan and progress updates for the hazard mitigation actions. Further, Marin OEM will host an annual one-day mitigation summit to increase engagement and enhance collaboration on the plan and projects. The summit will also have the goal to educate stakeholders on innovative approaches to mitigation, trends, and new plan requirements. Marin OEM, as the host, will seek subject matter experts, state and federal officials, and representatives from within the Marin OA to speak to mitigation and planning. The knowledge gathered and the coordination facilitated during the summit will be used to update the base plan and annexes. Marin OEM has the capacity to lead the Working Group and Multi-Jurisdictional Planning with one coordinator assigned with direct maintenance of the plan, a department analyst assigned to support the coordinator with project and grant tracking, and a community preparedness coordinator assigned with conducting regular public outreach on the plan and education on mitigation. Community feedback and integration will continue through outreach events and OEM website, where residents and visitors are invited to provide feedback through a survey, available in English or Spanish. Specific plan maintenance activities by the Marin County Office of Emergency Management and its participating jurisdictions/special districts may include: • Hold quarterly update meetings with the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee and local stakeholders to discuss revisions to the plan and progress updates for the hazard mitigation actions. • Annual Hazard Mitigation Summit • Holding public meetings after the first quarter and third quarter update meetings. • Maintaining the Marin County OEM Hazard Mitigation Website, which provides the public with the ability to access identified hazard impact maps, location address search capability, and a listing of hazard mitigation actions. • Monitoring of the Marin County and all participating jurisdiction mitigation project activities and dissemination of status reports. • Generation of reports relative to plan status, project management, and revision updates to executive leadership. • Preparations for the plan’s future revision and updating. 5.3 PLAN EVALUATION Upon approval and adoption by Marin County and all participating jurisdictions, the prioritized mitigation strategies will be further developed for funding and implementation by the lead agencies. The plan describes the potential sources of hazard mitigation funding, and general procedures to obtain that funding. The mitigation strategies represented and adopted within this plan are recommendations only and must be approved and funded in order to be implemented as official mitigation solutions. Ultimately, it is the responsibility of jurisdictional and agency officials within the Marin County Operational Area to undertake project implementation based upon identified mitigation l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 470 strategies, funding availability, and local need when it arises. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management will meet with the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group to evaluate the plan after each update meeting. 5.4 PLAN UPDATE During the five-year update cycle, the Marin County Office of Emergency Management will be responsible for updating the MJHMP. This update process will begin in 2024 through quarterly update meetings by the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group and local stakeholders. The Marin OEM will lead these meetings to discuss revisions to the plan and progress updates for the hazard mitigation actions. Additional plan update actions are described in 5.2 Plan Monitoring and Public Engagement. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management and all participating jurisdictions and special districts will continue to hold public meetings after the first quarter and third quarter update meetings annually and will continue to invite public participation in the update process via updated public surveys. l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 471 FIGURES AND TABLES INDEX FIGURES Figure 1.1: Map of Marin County ...............................................................................................13 Figure 1.2: Fire Protection Districts in Marin County..................................................................21 Figure 1.3: School Districts in Marin County ..............................................................................22 Figure 1.4: Muir Woods National Monument .............................................................................23 Figure 1.5: Marin County Parks and Public Lands .....................................................................24 Figure 1.6: Population of Marin County 1860-2020 ...................................................................25 Figure 1.7: Marin County Environmental Corridors ....................................................................34 Figure 1.8: Marin County Habitat Types ....................................................................................35 Figure 1.9: Marin County Wetlands ...........................................................................................37 Figure 1.10: Marin County Watersheds .....................................................................................38 Figure 1.11: Marin County Geologic Units (East of San Andreas Fault) .....................................44 Figure 1.12: Marin County Geologic Units (West of San Andreas Fault) ....................................45 Figure 1.13: Marin County Mineral Resource Sites ...................................................................46 Figure 1.14: Marin County Average Precipitation 1895-2022 .....................................................47 Figure 1.15: Marin County Average Temperature 1895-2022 ....................................................48 Figure 1.16: Diablo Wind Patterns.............................................................................................48 Figure 1.17: Historic Sites in Marin County ...............................................................................54 Figure 1.18: Generalized NRI Risk Equation .............................................................................55 Figure 1.19: Marin County NRI – Expected Annual Loss ...........................................................62 Figure 1.20: Marin County National Risk Index Map..................................................................63 Figure 1.21: Marin County CDC Social Vulnerability Index Map ................................................65 Figure 2.1: Marin County OEM MJHMP Website.......................................................................94 Figure 2.2: Marin County OA MJHMP Town Hall Meeting ..........................................................95 Figure 2.3: Collecting community feedback on the MJHMP.......................................................96 Figure 2.4: Hazard Mitigation Plan Public Outreach Press Release ..........................................97 Figure 2.5: Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey ................................................................................98 Figure 3.1: Marin County Risk Assessment – Top Hazards Graphed ...................................... 111 Figure 3.2: NASA Global Temperature Change CO2 Gas ....................................................... 113 Figure 3.3: NASA Global Temperature Change 1884 to 2022 ................................................. 113 Figure 3.4: NASA Global Temperature Change Sea Level ...................................................... 114 Figure 3.5: Human Health Impacts from Climate Change........................................................ 115 Figure 3.6: Annual Mean Sea Level Trends ............................................................................. 117 Figure 3.7: California Climate Impact Regions ........................................................................ 118 Figure 3.8: Dams in and around the Marin County OA ............................................................ 124 Figure 3.9: Marin County Dam Inundation Susceptibility to Critical Facilities ........................... 125 Figure 3.10: Phoenix Lake Dam Inundation Area .................................................................... 127 Figure 3.11: Phoenix Lake Dam Inundation Area – Kentfield North ......................................... 128 Figure 3.12: Phoenix Lake Dam Inundation Area – Kentfield South ........................................ 129 Figure 3.13: Novato Creek/ Stafford Lake Dam Inundation Area ............................................. 130 Figure 3.14: Novato Creek Dam Inundation Area – Green Point and Bel Marin Keys .............. 131 Figure 3.15: Bon Tempe Dam Inundation Area ........................................................................ 132 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 472 Figure 3.16: Bon Tempe Dam Inundation Area – Lagunitas-Forest Knolls-San Geronimo Area ............................................................................................................................................... 133 Figure 3.17: Bon Tempe Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station Area South................... 134 Figure 3.18: Bon Tempe Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station Area North and Inverness ............................................................................................................................................... 134 Figure 3.19: Peters Dam Inundation Area ............................................................................... 135 Figure 3.20: Peters Dam Inundation Area – Lagunitas-Forest Knolls Area .............................. 136 Figure 3.21: Peters Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station Area .................................... 137 Figure 3.22: Alpine Dam Inundation Area ................................................................................ 138 Figure 3.23: Alpine Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station ............................................. 139 Figure 3.24: Lagunitas Dam Inundation Area .......................................................................... 140 Figure 3.25: Seeger Dam Inundation Area .............................................................................. 141 Figure 3.26: Seeger Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station East ................................... 142 Figure 3.27: Seeger Dam Inundation Area – Point Reyes Station West .................................. 143 Figure 3.28: Big Rock Ranch Dam Inundation Area ................................................................ 144 Figure 3.29: Big Rock Ranch Dam Inundation Area East ........................................................ 145 Figure 3.30: Big Rock Ranch Dam Inundation Area West ....................................................... 146 Figure 3.31: Soulajule Dam Inundation Area ........................................................................... 147 Figure 3.32: Soulajule Dam Inundation Area around Soulajule Dam ....................................... 148 Figure 3.33: Soulajule Dam Inundation Area – Walker Creek at Highway 1 ............................. 149 Figure 3.34: Soulajule Dam Inundation Area – Walker Creek at Highway 1 and Tomales Bay . 149 Figure 3.35: Vonsen Dam Inundation Area .............................................................................. 150 Figure 3.36: Vosen Dam Inundation Area ................................................................................ 151 Figure 3.37: Landslide Susceptibility Classes.......................................................................... 156 Figure 3.38: Mud Flow Areas .................................................................................................. 157 Figure 3.39: Landslide Susceptibility in the Marin County OA ................................................. 158 Figure 3.40: Marin County Landslide Susceptibility for Critical Facilities Map .......................... 159 Figure 3.41: Landslide Susceptibility – Lagunitas, Forest Knolls, San Geronimo and Woodacre ............................................................................................................................................... 160 Figure 3.42: Landslide Susceptibility – Nicasio and Tocoloma ................................................. 160 Figure 3.43: Landslide Susceptibility – Olema and Point Reyes Station .................................. 161 Figure 3.44: Landslide Susceptibility – Inverness .................................................................... 161 Figure 3.45: Landslide Susceptibility – Dillon Beach and Tomales .......................................... 162 Figure 3.46: Landslide Susceptibility – Dogtown, Bolinas and Stinson Beach ......................... 162 Figure 3.47: Landslide Susceptibility – Southern Marin County ............................................... 163 Figure 3.48: Landslide Susceptibility – West Central Marin County ......................................... 164 Figure 3.49: Landslide Susceptibility – Novato West ............................................................... 165 Figure 3.50: Landslide Susceptibility – West Central Marin County ......................................... 166 Figure 3.51: Landslide Susceptibility – North Novato .............................................................. 167 Figure 3.52: Landslide Inventory in the Marin County OA ....................................................... 168 Figure 3.53: Damage in Inverness from the January 1982 Storm ............................................ 169 Figure 3.54: January 1982 Highway 101 Mudslide in Marin County ........................................ 169 Figure 3.55: February 2017 Landslide on Lucas Valley Road .................................................. 170 Figure 3.56: March 2023 Mudslide in Marin County ................................................................ 171 Figure 3.57: U.S. Drought Monitor for California (2023) .......................................................... 177 Figure 3.58: U.S. Drought Monitor for California (2020) .......................................................... 178 Figure 3.59: U.S. Drought Monitor for California (2016) .......................................................... 179 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 473 Figure 3.60: Water Supply Conditions in California 2005-2018................................................ 179 Figure 3.61: Drought Impacts .................................................................................................. 181 Figure 3.62: 2022 Locations of Tree Mortality in the Marin County OA .................................... 182 Figure 3.63: Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale ......................................................................... 185 Figure 3.64: Mercalli Scale vs. Magnitude ............................................................................... 186 Figure 3.65: Soil Types ........................................................................................................... 186 Figure 3.66: Earthquake Faults and Probability of Shaking in the Marin County OA ............... 188 Figure 3.67: Marin County Earthquake Shaking Potential and Critical Facilities ...................... 189 Figure 3.68: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 ................................. 192 Figure 3.69: Population/Social Vulnerability to an Earthquake in California ............................. 195 Figure 3.70: Diagram of an Atmospheric River Event .............................................................. 198 Figure 3.71: FIRM Zones in the Marin County OA ................................................................... 199 Figure 3.72: The 100-year, 200 -year and 500-year floodplains in the Marin County OA. ......... 200 Figure 3.73: 100, 200, 500-Year Floodplains in the Marin County OA ..................................... 201 Figure 3.74: 100 -Year Floodplain – Lagunitas ......................................................................... 202 Figure 3.75: 100 -Year Floodplain – Forest Knolls Area............................................................ 203 Figure 3.76: 100 -Year Floodplain – San Geronimo Area ......................................................... 203 Figure 3.77: 100 -Year Floodplain – Woodacre Area ................................................................ 204 Figure 3.78: 100 -Year Floodplain – Tocoloma ......................................................................... 204 Figure 3.79: 100 -Year Floodplain – Nicasio ............................................................................. 205 Figure 3.80: 100 -Year Floodplain –Nicasio East ...................................................................... 206 Figure 3.81: 100 -Year Floodplain –Olema ............................................................................... 206 Figure 3.82: 100 -Year Floodplain – Point Reyes Station Area - South ..................................... 207 Figure 3.83: 100 -Year Floodplain – Point Reyes Station Area - North ..................................... 208 Figure 3.84: 100 -Year Floodplain – Inverness Park Area ......................................................... 209 Figure 3.85: 100 -Year Floodplain – Inverness South ............................................................... 210 Figure 3.86: 100 -Year Floodplain – Inverness ......................................................................... 211 Figure 3.87: 100 -Year Floodplain – Reynolds and Marconi Area ............................................. 212 Figure 3.88: 100 -Year Floodplain – Marshall Area ................................................................... 213 Figure 3.89: 100 -Year Floodplain – Tomales Area ................................................................... 214 Figure 3.90: 100 -Year Floodplain – Bolinas North ................................................................... 215 Figure 3.91: 100 -Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Bolinas and Stinson Beach West ............... 216 Figure 3.92: 100 -Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Stinson Beach............................................ 217 Figure 3.93: 100 -Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Muir Beach ................................................ 218 Figure 3.94: 100 -Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Tamalpais Valley Area ................................ 218 Figure 3.95: 100 -Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Alto and Strawberry .................................... 219 Figure 3.96: 100 -Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Kentfield and Greenbrae ............................ 220 Figure 3.97: 100 -Year Floodplain – Marin City ........................................................................ 221 Figure 3.98: 100 -Year Floodplain – Lucas Valley and Marinwood............................................ 222 Figure 3.99: 100 -Year Floodplain – Saint Vincent .................................................................... 223 Figure 3.100: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – Santa Venetia Area .................................. 223 Figure 3.101: 100-Year and 500-Year Floodplain – San Pedro Hill Area.................................. 224 Figure 3.102: Novato Flooding - Marin County Landfill and Marin County airport ................... 225 Figure 3.103: Flooding in San Rafael Area .............................................................................. 226 Figure 3.104: 100-Year Floodplain – Bel Marin Keys ............................................................... 227 Figure 3.105: Stinson - Bolinas Area Flooding......................................................................... 228 Figure 3.106: Flood Control Zones in the Marin County OA .................................................... 229 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 474 Figure 3.107: Damage in Inverness from 1982 Storm ............................................................. 231 Figure 3.108: Flooding in Marin City – 2019 Storm ................................................................. 232 Figure 3.109: Population/Social Vulnerability to Flooding in California .................................... 240 Figure 3.110: Dissolution Sinkhole Formation ......................................................................... 241 Figure 3.111: Cover-Subsidence Sinkhole Formation .............................................................. 242 Figure 3.112: Cover-Collapse Sinkhole Formation .................................................................. 242 Figure 3.113: Land Subsidence in California 2007-2018 with Marin County Cutout ................. 243 Figure 3.114: U.S. Rock types Susceptible to Water Dissolution ............................................. 244 Figure 3.115: Levee Failure Mechanisms ................................................................................ 247 Figure 3.116: Marin County Levee System .............................................................................. 249 Figure 3.117: Levees in Tamalpais Valley ................................................................................ 250 Figure 3.118: Levees in Strawberry ......................................................................................... 251 Figure 3.119: Tam Junction Levees ......................................................................................... 252 Figure 3.120: Levee in Kentfield .............................................................................................. 253 Figure 3.121: Greenbrae Levee System.................................................................................. 254 Figure 3.122: McNears Sea Wall in the San Pedro Hill Area ................................................... 255 Figure 3.123: Santa Venetia Levee in Santa Venetia .............................................................. 256 Figure 3.124: Marin Levee 33, Marin County Levees 33 and 24 and the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Levee in St. Vincent ...................................................................................... 257 Figure 3.125: Santa Venetia Levee System ............................................................................ 258 Figure 3.126: Bel Marin Keys Levee System ........................................................................... 259 Figure 3.127: Levees Around the Marin County Airport ........................................................... 260 Figure 3.128: Novato North Levee System .............................................................................. 261 Figure 3.129: Marin County Sea Level Rise Susceptibility to Critical Facilities ........................ 267 Figure 3.130: Average July Temperatures in California............................................................ 268 Figure 3.131: Projections of Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area, 2000-2100 ........ 275 Figure 3.132: Heat Index ........................................................................................................ 276 Figure 3.133: Heat Disorders by Heat Index Level .................................................................. 277 Figure 3.134: Annual Average Temperatures in the San Francisco Bay Area, 2000-2100 ....... 281 Figure 3.135: Beaufort Wind Scale.......................................................................................... 282 Figure 3.136: Wind Zones in the US ....................................................................................... 283 Figure 3.137: Enhanced Fujita Scale ...................................................................................... 287 Figure 3.138: Waterspout Formation ....................................................................................... 288 Figure 3.139: Tsunami Inundation Zones in the Marin County OA ........................................... 291 Figure 3.140: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Inverness Area ....................................................... 292 Figure 3.141: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Inverness ............................................................... 293 Figure 3.142: Tsunami Inundation Zone – South of Inverness ................................................. 294 Figure 3.143: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Inverness Park and Point Reyes ............................ 295 Figure 3.144: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Reynolds and Marshall .......................................... 296 Figure 3.145: Tsunami Inundation Zone – McDonald and Blakes Landing .............................. 297 Figure 3.146: Tsunami Inundation Zone – South of Tomales ................................................... 298 Figure 3.147: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Dillon Beach Area .................................................. 299 Figure 3.148: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Dillon Beach........................................................... 300 Figure 3.149: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Bolinas Lagoon North ............................................ 300 Figure 3.150: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Bolinas Area .......................................................... 301 Figure 3.151: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Bolinas Core .......................................................... 302 Figure 3.152: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Bolinas North ......................................................... 303 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 475 Figure 3.153: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Stinson Beach Area ............................................... 303 Figure 3.154: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Stinson Beach........................................................ 304 Figure 3.155: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Muir Beach ............................................................ 305 Figure 3.156: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Tamalpais Valley South .......................................... 306 Figure 3.157: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Tamalpais Valley North........................................... 307 Figure 3.158: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Marin City .............................................................. 308 Figure 3.159: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Manzanita .............................................................. 308 Figure 3.160: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Strawberry South ................................................... 309 Figure 3.161: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Unincorporated Tiburon Peninsula ......................... 310 Figure 3.162: Tsunami Inundation Zone – Paradise Cay ......................................................... 311 Figure 3.163: North Marin Tsunami Inundation Zones ............................................................. 312 Figure 3.164: Santa Venetia Tsunami Inundation Zones.......................................................... 313 Figure 3.165: Greenbrae Tsunami Inundation Zones ............................................................... 314 Figure 3.166: Richardson Bay Tsunami Inundation Zones....................................................... 315 Figure 3.167: Tomales Bay Tsunami Inundation Zones ........................................................... 316 Figure 3.168: Bolinas – Stinson Tsunami Inundation Zones .................................................... 317 Figure 3.169: Federal, State and Local Responsibility Areas in the Marin County OA ............. 324 Figure 3.170: Fuel Model Map for the Marin County OA ......................................................... 328 Figure 3.171: Wildfire Ignition Points in the Marin County OA ................................................. 331 Figure 3.172: WUI Boundary in the Marin County OA ............................................................. 332 Figure 3.173: Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ) in the Marin County OA ............................. 334 Figure 3.174: Marin County Wildfire Susceptibility to Critical Facilities .................................... 335 Figure 3.175: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Lagunitas, Forest Knolls, San Geronimo and Woodacre ............................................................................................................................... 336 Figure 3.176: Fire Hazard Severity Zones –Woodacre ............................................................ 336 Figure 3.177: Fire Hazard Severity Zones –Woodacre Area .................................................... 337 Figure 3.178: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Nicasio ............................................................... 338 Figure 3.179: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Tocoloma ............................................................ 339 Figure 3.180: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Olema................................................................. 340 Figure 3.181: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Point Reyes Station ............................................ 341 Figure 3.182: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Inverness Park ................................................... 342 Figure 3.183: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Inverness ............................................................ 343 Figure 3.184: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Inverness Area ................................................... 344 Figure 3.185: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Marconi/Marshall Area ........................................ 345 Figure 3.186: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – McDonald/Blakes Landing Area .......................... 346 Figure 3.187: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Tomales .............................................................. 347 Figure 3.188: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Dillon Beach ....................................................... 348 Figure 3.189: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Dogtown ............................................................. 349 Figure 3.190: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Bolinas ............................................................... 350 Figure 3.191: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Stinson Beach and Surrounding Area ................. 351 Figure 3.192: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Stinson Beach .................................................... 351 Figure 3.193: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Muir Beach ......................................................... 352 Figure 3.194: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Tamalpais Valley and Marin City ......................... 353 Figure 3.195: Fire Hazard Severity Zone – Unincorporated Tiburon Peninsula and Paradise Cay ............................................................................................................................................... 354 Figure 3.196: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – San Quentin ....................................................... 355 Figure 3.197: Fire Hazard Severity Zones – Lucas Valley and Marinwood .............................. 355 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 476 Figure 3.198: Fire Hazard Severity Zone – Bel Marin Keys and Loma Verde .......................... 356 Figure 3.199: Fire Hazard Severity Zone – San Antonio & Marin County Airport ..................... 357 Figure 3.200: Historic Wildfires in the Marin County OA 1919 - 1995 ...................................... 358 Figure 3.201: Historic Wildfires in the Marin County OA 1973 - 2020 ...................................... 359 Figure 3.202: 1995 Vision Fire ................................................................................................ 360 Figure 3.203: Population Density, Flame Length, and Rate of Spread for the Average Fire Season in the Marin County OA .............................................................................................. 365 Figure 3.204: Areas of Concern for the Average Fire Season in the Marin County OA ............ 366 Figure 3.205: Areas of Concern for the Extreme Fire Season in the Marin County OA ............ 367 Figure 3.206: WUI Boundary and Population Density in the Marin County OA ........................ 368 Figure 3.207: Trends in the Annual Number of Large Wildfires in the United States ................ 372 Figure 3.208: Air Quality Index Concern Levels....................................................................... 376 Figure 3.209: Marin County OA Critical Infrastructure ............................................................. 377 Figure 3.210: Largest Oil Spills Affecting U.S. Waters 1969-2017 ........................................... 385 Figure 3.211: Marin County Covid-19 Hospitalizations ............................................................ 391 Figure 3.212: Marin County Covid-19 Hospitalizations by Demographics ................................ 391 Figure 3.213: Marin County Highways .................................................................................... 393 Figure 3.214: SMART Commuter and Freight Line .................................................................. 396 TABLES Table 1.1: Marin County Population Changes 1860-2020 ..........................................................26 Table 1.2: Marin County Estimated Jurisdictional Population .....................................................26 Table 1.3: Marin County Estimated Jurisdictional Population Change 2010-2020 .....................27 Table 1.4: Marin County Population Age by Gender 2020 .........................................................28 Table 1.5: Marin County Population by Race or Ethnicity ..........................................................28 Table 1.6: Marin County Housing Stock.....................................................................................29 Table 1.7: Marin County Jurisdictional Housing Stock ...............................................................31 Table 1.8: Historic Sites in Marin County ...................................................................................53 Table 1.9: NRI Risk Components and Factors ...........................................................................56 Table 1.10: NRI Hazards and Marin County OA MJHMP Hazards .............................................57 Table 1.11: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for Marin County ........................................................59 Table 1.12: NRI Highest-Risk Communities in Marin County .....................................................60 Table 1.13: Marin County Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over .............................67 Table 1.14: Marin County OA MJHMP Participants 2018 and 2023 ...........................................69 Table 2.1: 2023 Marin OA MJHMP Participating Jurisdictions ...................................................76 Table 2.2: Marin County OA MJHMP Steering Committee Members .........................................77 Table 2.3: Marin County OA MJHMP Preparative Consulting Planning Team Members ............78 Table 2.4: Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Team Members .................................................82 Table 2.5: Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings ...........................................................86 Table 3.1: Marin County OA MJHMP Hazard Identification and Comparison ........................... 101 Table 3.2: Marin County OA MJHMP Other Hazards Profiled .................................................. 102 Table 3.3: State and Federal Declared Disasters in Marin County ........................................... 104 Table 3.4: Marin County Hazard Risk Assessment .................................................................. 108 Table 3.5: Hazard Magnitude and Severity Scale .................................................................... 109 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 477 Table 3.6: Marin County Hazard Risk Assessment – Top Hazards Scored .............................. 110 Table 3.7: Hazard Ranked Dams in Marin County with Potential to Impact to the OA.............. 123 Table 3.8: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Dam Failure ..................................... 153 Table 3.9: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Debris Flow ...................................... 173 Table 3.10: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Drought .......................................... 183 Table 3.11: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Earthquake..................................... 193 Table 3.12: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Flooding ......................................... 236 Table 3.13: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Land Subsidence ........................... 246 Table 3.14: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Levee Failure ................................. 263 Table 3.15: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment - Sea Level Rise ............................... 270 Table 3.16: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Severe Weather, Extreme Heat ...... 279 Table 3.17: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Severe Weather; Wind ................... 286 Table 3.18: Tornado Activity in the Marin County OA ............................................................... 288 Table 3.19: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment - Tsunami .......................................... 319 Table 3.20: Marin County OA Hazard Risk Assessment – Wildfire........................................... 363 Table 4.1: Unincorporated Marin County Future Growth Areas ................................................ 401 Table 4.2: Marin County Legal and Regulatory Capabilities..................................................... 406 Table 4.3: Marin County Goals and Policies ............................................................................ 407 Table 4.4: Marin County Goals and Policies ........................................................................... 411 Table 4.5: Marin County Fiscal Capabilities ............................................................................ 413 Table 4.6: Marin County Community Outreach ........................................................................ 414 Table 4.7: Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) ................................ 420 Table 4.8: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions .......................................................... 430 Table 4.9: Marin County Current Hazard Mitigation Actions ..................................................... 462 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 478 ACRONYMS Acronym Definition ABAG Association Bay Area of Governments AQI Air Quality Index ARP Address Resolution Protocol ASL American Sign Language ATSDR Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry BAAQMD Bay Area Air Quality Management District BCDC Bay Conservation and Development Commission BCPUD Bolinas Community Public Utility District BRIC Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities CA California CAL FIRE California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection Cal OES California Office of Emergency Services CAP Climate Action Plan CASPER Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response - California Department of Public Health CDA Community Development Agency CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDI Certified Deaf Interpreter CEQA California Environmental Quality Act CGS California Geological Survey CIP Capital Improvement Plan CMFD Central Marin Fire District CNRA California Natural Resource Agency CNRA California Natural Resource Agency CNRA California Natural Resource Agency CO Carbon Monoxide COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 COYL Coyote Creek Left Bank Levee CPUC California Public Utilities Commission CRF Community Risk Factor CRI Community Resilience Index CRS Community Rating System l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 479 CRT Community Response Team CSA County Service Area C-SMART Sea-level Marin Adaption Response Team CWPP Community Wildfire Protection Plan DDoS Distributed Denial of Service DMA Disaster Mitigation Act DNS Domain Name System DOF California Department of Finance DoS Denial-of-Service DPW Department of Public Works DR Disaster Relief DSOD Division of Safety of Dams - California Department of Water Resources DWR California Department of Water Resources EAL Expected Annual Loss EAS Emergency Alert System EOC Emergency Operation Center EOP Emergency Operations Plan EPA Environmental Protection Agency ESHA Environmentally Sensitive Habitat Areas FD Fire Department FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FHSV Fire Hazard Severity Zones FIRM Flood Insurance Rate Maps FMA Flood Mitigation Assistance FMP Flood Mitigation Plan FPA Floodplain Administrator FRA Federal Responsibility Areas FY Fiscal Year GGNRA Golden Gate National Recreation Area GGNRA Golden Gate National Recreation Area GIS Geographic Information System Gov Government GPAC General Plan Advisory Committee H2S Hydrogen Sulfide l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 480 HFHSZ High Fire Severity Zone HIRA Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome HLR Historic Loss Ratio HMGP Hazard Mitigation Grant Program IoT Internet of Things IP Intellectual Property IPAWS Integrated Public Alert and Warning System ISEPA Identified Site Emergency Planning Application LCP Local Coastal Program LGVSD Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District LHMP Local Hazard Mitigation Plan LRA Local Responsibility Areas LRAD Long-Range Acoustic Device LSAC Levee Safety Action Classification Marin IJ Marin Independent Journal MCEP Marin Climate Energy Partnership MCFD Marin County Fire Department MCOSD Marin County Open Space District MCPIO Marin County Public Information Officers MCSTOPP Marin County Stormwater Pollution Prevention Program MERA Marin Emergency Radio Authority MERS Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MFHSZ Moderate Fire Severity Zone MHOAC Medical/Health Operational Area Coordinator MJHMP Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan MMI Modified Mercalli Intensity MMWD Marin Municipal Water District MRZ Mineral Resource Zones MV2040 Mill Valley General Plan 2040 Mw Scale Moment Magnitude Scale MWPA Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCDC National Climatic Data Center l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 481 NFDRS National Fire Danger Rating System NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NID National Inventory of Dams NIH National Institute for Health NMWD North Marin Water District NPR Northwestern Pacific Railroad NR National Register of Historic Places NRI National Risk Index NWS National Weather Service O3 Ozone OA Operational Area OEM Office of Emergency Management OHP Office of Historic Preservation OWTA On-Site Wastewater Treatment Systems PD Police Department PG&E Pacific Gas & Electric PM10 Particulate Matter Less Than 10 Microns In Aerodynamic Diameter PSPS Public Safety Power shutoffs PtH Pass the hash PW Public Works RAWS Remote Automated Weather Stations RCD Resource Conservation District RHNA Regional Housing Needs Assessment SASM Sewerage Agency of Southern Marin SFBRA San Francisco Bay Restoration Authority SFHA Special Flood Hazard Area SFHA Special Flood Hazard Areas - FEMA SFHA Special Flood Hazard Area SHMP State Hazard Mitigation Plan SMART Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit SMFD Southern Marin Fire District SOX Sulfur Oxides SQL Structured Query Language SRA State Responsibility Areas l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 482 SVI Social Vulnerability Index TAM Transportation Authority of Marin UCERF2 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 UCERF3 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USGS United States Geological Survey VHFHSV Very High Fire Severity Zone WC/ATWC West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center WHO World Health Organization WUI Wildland Urban Interface XSS Cross-Site Scripting l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 483 APPENDIX A: ADOPTION LETTERS 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN~ December 1, 2022 CITY of BELVEDERE' 450 San Rafae l Ave. • Belv e d ere, CA 9492 0-2336 Te l : 415/435-2611 • Fax : 4 15 /435-8471 POLICE DE PART MENT Marin County Office of Emergency Services 1600 Los Gamos Drive San Rafael , CA 94903 Re: Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard 'Mitigation Officer: As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201 .6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi- jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comprehens ively by coordinating at the county , regional , or watershed- level , the City of Belvedere is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that the City of Belvedere has agreed to participate in the Marin County's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plann ing . Furthermore, as .a condition of participation in the mitigation planning , the City.of.. Belvedere, agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201 .6 and to provide such cooperation as i s necessary and in a t imely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requirements . The . City of Belvedere understands that it must engage. in the following planning _ process , as more fully described in FEMA's Local Mitigat ion Planning Handbook. including, but not lim ited to: • Identification of hazards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document; 1 • The conduct of a vulnerabil ity analysis and an i dentification of risks , where they differ from the general plann ing area ; • The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals. A range of actions -must b_e identified specific for each jurisdiction; 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 484 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the planning process by all community stakeholders ( examples of participation include relevant involvement in any plannihg~ process , attending meetings , contributing research , data, or other information, commenting on drafts of the plan , etc.); and • Documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan; and, • Formal adoption of the Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by~ the jurisdiction's governing body ( each jurisdiction must officially adopt the plan). Therefore , with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation plannir-ig process as a participant iA •a multi-jurisdictional plan i, I, Robert Zadnik, City Manager, commit the City of Belvedere to the Marin County's Multi- jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort. This document is executed this 1 day of December 2022. Robert-Zadnik City Manager City of Belvedere ( 415) 435-3838 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 485 l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ SOLINAS COMMUNITY PUBLIC UTILITY DISTRICT BCPUD BOX 390 270 ELM ROAD SOLINAS CALIFORNIA 94924 415 8681224 September 23, 2022 Sheri ff Jamie Scardina Marin County She ri ffs Office 1600 Los Gamos Drive , #200 San Rafael, California 94903 Re: "Statement of Inten t to Paiticipate" as participating jurisdiction in Marin County Multi- Jurisdictional Loca l Hazard Mitigation Planning. Sheriff Scardina: ln accordance with the Federa l Emergency Management Agency (''FEMA")'s Local Mitigation Plans requirements, und er 44 CFR §20 1.6, which specifica ll y identify cr iteria that al low for multi-jurisdictional mitigation plans, the Solinas Community Public Utility District ("BCPUD") is submitting this letter of intent to confirm that the BCPUD has agreed to participate in the Marin Co unty Multi-jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Planning ("MCM LHMP") effort. Further, as a condition to participating in the mitigation planning ; the BCPUD agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans id entifi ed in 44 CFR §201.6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a t imely manner to the County to comp lete the plan in conformance with FEMA requ irements . The plan wi ll comp ly with Californi a AB 2140 through integration with the Marin Countywide Plan Safety Element and the municipalities' general plans. County staff on the MCM LI-IMP planning team are responsible fo r ensuring County compliance with AB 2 140 , and a representative of the BCPVD is respo nsib le fo r ensuring compliance fo r its jurisdiction. The BCPUD understands that it must engage in the followi ng planning process, as more fully described in FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook (2013), including, but not limited to: ► Id entifi cation of hazards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document ; ► The co nduct of a vulnerability ana ly s is and an identification of risks , where they differ from the genera l planning area; ► The formulation of m itigation goals responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions compl ementary to those goals. A range of actions must be identified specific for eac h jurisdiction; ► Demonstration that the re ha s been proactively offered an oppo1tunity for participation in the planning process by a ll community stakeho lders (examples of participation include relevant involvement in any planning process, attend ing meetings, cont ributing research, data, or other information, commenting on drafts of the plan, etc.); ► Documentation of an effective process to ma intain and impl ement the plan; ► Formal adopt ion of the Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by the jurisdiction 's govern in g body (eac h jurisdiction must officia lly adopt the pl a n); and ► Documentation of paiticipation in the NFIP, co ntinued co mpli ance with NFIP requirements, and address NFIP in su red structures that have been repetitively damaged by flood s . Therefore, with a full und e rs tanding of the funding ob li gation s incurred by an agreement between the 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 486 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Letter lo She ri ff Jami e Scardin a Se pt emb e r 23 , 2 022 Page T wo Le ad Juri sd ict io n and th e Pa rt ic ip at in g Juri sd ic ti o n, I, Jenni fe r B lackm a n, commit the BC PUD to th e Marin Coun ty Mu lti -jurisd icti o na l Loca l Ha za rd M it igati o n Pla nnin g effo rt. Exec ut ed thi s 1,Qd ay of Se pte mber 2 022. - G e ne ra l Ma nage r 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 487 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ l'tl E TO W N OP Co1n e M A 0 6R A 240 TAM l. V ISTA BLVD, SUITE ! 10 CORTE MADERA. CA 94925 www.townofcortemade raorg ToWN MA AGER TOWN CO CIL 41 5-927-5050 TOWN l ERK 41.5 -92 7 086 FI NANCE I Bus . LICF.NSE 4 IS-92 7-5055 FI RE D EPARTMENT 4 15-927-5077 PLANNING / Zo ING 4 15-927-5064 B UIL.DfNG INSPECTOR 4 15-927 -50 62 T OWN E NGINEER PUBLIC W ORKS 62 8-258-0294 R ECREA TION D EPARTME T 415-92 7-S 072 SAN rfA RY D IST RI CT NO. 2 628-253 -l 158 CENTRAL 1\IIAR JN POLICE A UT HORI TY 4 I 5-{}27-5 l SO DEPARTMENT Of PUBLIC WORKS PHON E : 628 -2 58 -0294 EMA I L: l'WCOIJN TER@TCt,,I MAI L.OR , December 5, 2022 Marin County Office offanergency Service s Marin County heriff's Office 1600 Lo s Gamo s Dr. #200 San Rafael , CA 94903 Re : Lener of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Multi- jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan r quirements under 44 CFR §201.6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi-jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comprehen ively by coordinating at the county , regional , or watershed level the Town of Corte Madera is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that Town of Corte Madera has agreed to participate in the Marin County 's Multi-juri dictional Hazard Mitigation Planning. Furthermore , a a condition o f participation in the mitigation planning, the Town of Co1·te Madera, agre es to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201.6 and to provide such c ooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requirements. The Town of Corte Madera und rstands that it mus t engage in th e following planning process, as more fully described in FEMA's Local Mitioa1ion Planning Handbook. including, but not limited to: • ldentificarion of hazards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document; The conduct of a vulnerability analysis and an identification ofrisks, where they differ from the general planning area ; Page I of2 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 488 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals. A range of actions must be identified specific for each jurisdiction; • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the planning process by all community stakeholders ( examples of participation include relevant involvement in any planning process, attending meetings, contributing research, data, or other information, commenting on drafts of the plan, etc .); and Documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan; and, Formal adoption of the Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by the jurisdiction's governing body ( each jurisdiction must officially adopt the plan). Therefore, with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan; I , Town Manager, commit the Tow11 of Corte Madera to the Marin County's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort. S JI. This document is executed this __ day of December, 2022 . Adam Wolff Town Manager, Town of Corte Madera Page 2 of2 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 489 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Decemb e r S, 2022 TOWN OF FAIRFAX 14 2 Solinas Road , Fai rfax , California 94930 (4 1 5) 4 5 3 • I 5 8 4 / Fax (4 l 5) 4 5 3 • l 6 I 8 Marin Coun ty Office of Emergency Services Marin County Sheriff's Office l 600 Los Oamos Dr. #2 00 Sun Rafa el, CA 94903 Re : Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Mal'in County Multi - jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitiga tion Officer : As tl1e Federal E mergency Management Agency's (FE MA) Loca l Mitigation Pl a n requirements under 44 CP R §201.6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi - juris dictional miti gation plan and that many issues aro bet! r resolved by evaluating hazard s more comprehensively by coordinating at the county, r egio nal , or waters hed level , th e Town f Fairfax is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that th e T own of ·airfa.x has agreed to parti cipate in th e Marin aunty's Mu lti -jlll'is dictional Ha za rd Mitigation Planning. Furthermore, as a condition of parti ci pation in the mitigation planning, Town of Fairfax, agrees to meet rhe requirements for miti gation plans identified in 44 F R §201.6 and to provid e s uch c operation as is neces sary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete th e plan in conformance with FEMA requirements. The Town of Fairfax understands !hat it must engage in the following planning process as more fully d esc ribed in FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning HandboQk-includin g, but not limited to : Identification of h87"8r ds uniqu e to the jurisdiction and noL addressed in the mast~r planning documen t; The conduct of a vulnerabil \ty analysis and an identification f 1i s ks , where they differ from the genera l planning area ; The formulation of mitigation goa l:; re s pons iv e to public input and dev lopment of mitigation action· complementary to those goals . A range of actions must be id entifi ed specific for each jurisd iction; D1::111011 slrn tion lhnl th cri.: hns bi:e n pma cti vely o/Ter c;d an opportunity for p11rt icipm io11 i11 the pl n11J1in g process by a ll co 111111unity s tak e hold ers (exa mp le. of'pal'li t.:ipatit)n in c lud e r •le a 11l involw1m;nt ii1 a ny plm111i11 g. pr occs . nlli.:ncli ng mee tin gs. co 1W ibu1in g reso:n rc h. da ta. o r oth r i11fom1mk1n. comm e ntin g 011 dral1 s uf th e plan . t:\c.); and Do cument a tion o r 11 11 e fl h ·tiv .: pro cess to ma int ai n and im plem ent th e pl {m: imd , 11ormn l adoption ol "lhe Mu lti-jurisdiclionu l T la7 .. ml Miti gation Plan by rhcjuri s d ict io n' g~1wrni ni bod ' (et1chj.1ri !)dii.:tion mus t offi cia ll y ad o pt the pl ,m). 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 490 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Therefore. with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation plaiming process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan ; I. Fairfax Town Manager, commit the Town of Fairfax to the Marin County's Multi - jurisdictional Hazard M iti gation P lannin g effort. This document is executed this 5th day of December, 2022 . Sincerely, ~~ Town of Fai r fax, Town Manager 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 491 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ March 28. 2023 City of Larkspur Office o f E mergenc Management Matin County fire 1.600 Los Gamos Drive San Rafael , CA . 94903 400 Mag,,olia Av enue, L.1rkspur, California 94939 Tele phone: (415) 927-5110 fax, (415) 927-5022 W e.b s,te: www.dtyofla rk~pur.o1·g Re: Letter of Commitment as Participatin g Jurisdiction in Marin Count Multi-juri sd ictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State J-Ia 7,ard Mitiga tion Ofilccr: As the Federal Emerg ency Management Agency's (fEM/\) Local Mitigation Plan requirement s ti nder 44 CFR §201.6 specificall y identif: criter ia th a t allow fur multi-juri sdictional mitigation plans and that many iss ues arc better re olvcd by eva luating h azard s more cornprehcnsivdy by co ordinating at th e cou nt _ , regiona l, or wa tershed leveL the City of Lar ks pur is s ubmitting thi s letter o f eo mmibneDl to confinn that the City of Lmk pur ha s agreed to participate in the Ma rill Coun t ·'s Multi-Juri sdiction al Hazard Mitigation Planning. Furlhcnnorc, as a conditio n of participation in the mitigation planning. City of Larkspur. agree to meet the requirements for mitigation plans iden ti lied in 44 CPR §201.6 a nd to provide suc h coopera tion as is neccs ar_ and in a ti mely m anner t o the Mari n County Multi -Juri sdictional 1-lllwrd Mi ti ga tion Pla nnin g process to complete the plan in confonnance with iiE MA requirements. T he City ofLarks pur unders ta nd s tha t it mu st engage in the fo ll owing plannin g proce s, as more fully de scribed in FEMA's Local Miti ga ti on P lanning Handbook. including, but not l imited to : • ldcntilicatiot1 of hazards unique t o thcjuri 5d iction and not addrcssod in tbc mast er plan ning do cu men t: • The conduct. of a ulnernbilily ana lysis and an .ideulification of risks where the y diOer from the genera l pl a nnin g area; • The formulation of mitiga tion goal responsi ve to public input and dev elopment of miti ga tion actio ns compleme ntaiy to tho se goa ls. A range of actions mu st be identified spec ific for each juri diction: • l)cmonstmt:ion th at !h e re ha s been proact:i ve ly offe red an opportuni ty for participation 111 th e pl:inning prot1ess by all com1m1ni ty stakebold rs (exa mpl es of par\icip;:ition incl 1d c 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 492 l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ relevant involvement in any planning process, attending meetings , contributing research, data, or other information , commenting on drafts of the plan , etc .); and • Documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan; and, • Formal adoption of the Mu lti-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by the jurisdiction's governing body (each jurisdiction must officially adopt the plan). Therefore, with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan ; I, City Manager Dan Schwarz, commit the City of Larkspur to the Marin County Mult i-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation P lanning effort. This document is executed this 28 th day of March, 2023 . 0¼/~ Dan Schwarz City Manager 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 493 1 ~<;>U·N· TY O F a ~ARIN ~ MANAGEMENT TEAM Las . 'Galhnas 101 luC3$ VaIfoy Ro d. Su,l 300 San Rafael , CA 94903 G~neta l MaMger, Cu rt ,~ P~~t on Plan i Operations , Mol Ucbmunn Coll ectIons/Sore1ylMal n\en0nce , Grog Pe~so VALLEY SANITARY DISTRICT November 23 , 2022 Tel : 415-472-1734 F&l<. q15 -~99 •7715 1-1ww,LGVSO ,or9 Marin County Office of Emergency Services 1600 Los Gamos Drive San Rafael , CA 94903 Engineeri ng , Michael P. Cof1a7, Adm inis lr,nliv e Service$1 Dale McOof"lal d Re: Lette r of Commitment as Participating Juri sdictioh ih Marin Countv Multi -jurisc)ictional Haz;ard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: DISTRJCT BOARD Megan Clark Rona Ia Ford Cr111g K Muri'ay J~dy ScMabman C,Y$lal J, Yezrnnn As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (F EMA) Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201 .6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi- jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comprehensively by coordinating at the county , regional , or watershed level , the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District has agreed to participate in the Marin County 's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigatioh Plann lng . Furthermore, as a condition of participation In the mitigation plann ing , Las Gallinas Valley Sanita ry District, agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201 .6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requirements . Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary' District understands that it must engage in the following planning process, as more fully described in FEMA's Local Mjligation Planning Handbook including , but not limiteo to : • Identification of ha zards uniqlJe to the jurisdlction and not addressed In the master planning document; • The conduct of a vulnerability analysis and an identification of risks , where they differ from the general planning area : • The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals . A 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 494 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ range of actions must be identified specific for each jurisdiction ; • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the planning process by all community stakeholders (examples of participation include relevaht involvement in any planning process , attending meetings , contributing research , data , or other informatlon , commenting on drafts of the plan , etc .); and • Documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan ; and , • Formal adoption of the Mu lti -jurisdictiona l Hazard Mitigatioh Plan by the jurisdiction's governing body (each jurisdiction must officially adopt t he plan). Therefore , with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan ; I, Curlis Paxton , commit Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District to the Marin County's Multi • jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort . This document is executed this 23rd day of November, 2022 . If you need further information or have any questions , please do not hesitate to contact our Administrative Services Manager , Dale McDonald at 415-526 -15 HJ. Curtis Paxton Las Ga ll inas Valley Sanitary District, General Manager 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 495 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ November 29 , 2022 Marin County Administrator's Office 3501 Civic Center Drive #325 San Rafael, CA 94903 Re : Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201.6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi- jurisdictional m itigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comprehensively by coordinating at the county , regional , or watershed level , the City of Mill Valley is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that the City of Mill Valley has agreed to participate in the Marin County's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning. Furthermore , as a condition of participation in the mitigation planning , the City of Mill Valley , agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201 .6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requ irements . The City of Mill Valley understands that it must engage in the following plann ing process, as more fully described in FEMA's Local M itig a tion Pl anni ng Handboo k. including, but not limited to: • Identification of hazards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document; • The conduct of a vulnerability analysis and an identification of risks , where C~eyr'41iJttan~amd~!!tQOOSai~nimg,a~a;al ifo mia 94941 • 415-388-4033 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 496 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN~ The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals. A range of actions must be identified specific for each jurisdiction ; • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the planning process by all community stakeholders (examples of participation include relevant involvement in any planning process , attending meetings, contributing research , data , or other information , commenting on drafts of the plan , etc.); and • Documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan; and , • Formal adoption of the Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by the jurisdiction's governing body (each jurisdiction must officially adopt the plan). Therefore , with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan ; I, Todd Cusimano, commit the City of Mill Valley to the Marin County's Multi- jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort. This document is executed this 29 th day of November 29 , 2022 . Todd Cusimano City Manager City of Mill Valley 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 497 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ NORTH MARIN WATER DISTRICT 999 Ru sh Creek Place P.O. Box 146 Novato, CA 94948-0 14 6 PHONE 415-897-4133 EMAIL info@nm wd.com WEB www.nmwd.com January 3, 2023 Marin County Adm inistrator's Office 3501 Civic Center Drive #325 San Rafael, CA 94903 Re : Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Multi- Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201.6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi-jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comprehensively by coordinating at the county , regional , or watershed level, the North Marin Water District is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that North Marin Water District has agreed to participate in the Marin County's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning . Furthermore , as a condition of participation in the mitigation planning , North Marin Water District , agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201 .6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requirements. North Marin Water District understands that it must engage in the following planning process , as more fully described in FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook , including , but not limited to : • Identification of hazards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document; • The conduct of a vulnerability analysis and an identification of risks , where they differ from the general planning area ; • The formulation of mitigation goals respons ive to public input and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals . A range of actions must be identified specific for each jurisdiction ; • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the planning process by all community stakeholders (e xamples of participation include relevant involvement in any planning process , attending meetings, contributing research , data , or other information , commenting on drafts of the plan, etc .); and documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan; and , • Formal adoption of the Multi-Jurisd ictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by the juri sdiction's governing body ( each jurisdiction must officially adopt the plan). DIRECTORS : JACK BAKER · KEN EICHSTAEDT • RICK FRAITES • MICHAELJOLY • STEPHEN PETTERLE OFFI CERS : ANTHONY WILLIAMS, General Manager • TERRIE KEHOE, District Secretary· JULIE BLUE, Auditor-Controller , ER IC M ILLER , Asst. GM/Chie f Engineer 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 498 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Marin County Administrator January 3, 2023 Page 2 of 2 Therefore , with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdicti onal plan ; I , Anthony Williams, General Manager, commit North Marin Water District to the Marin County's Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort. This document is executed this 3rd day of January , 2023 . Sincerely , ~o/~ illiams General Manager North Marin Water District Attachment: NMWD Board of Directors Memo dated December 20 , 2022 lW:edm R;\NON JOB No ISSU ES\Hazard Mlligal[on Pla n\BOD Memos\2022 1220 -letter of com milmenl\Letter or Commitment io Marin County MJ HMP .docx 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 499 1 ~<;>U·N· TY O F a ~ARIN ~ ~ CITY OF NOVATO ~p cALIFORl\l l A December 15, 2022 Marin County Admin istrator 's Office 3501 Civic Center Drive #325 San Rafael , CA 94903 Re: Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: As the Federa l Eme rgency Management Agency's (FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201 .6 speci fi cally identify crn:eria that al low for multi- jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by eva luating hazards more comprehensively by coord inating at the county, regional , or watershed level , the City of Novato is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that City of Novato has agreed to participate in the Marin County 's Multi- j uri sdictional Hazard Mitigation P lanning . Furthermore , as a condition of participation in the m itigation planning , City of Novato , agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201 ,6 and to provide such cooperation as Is necessary and in a timely manner to the Mari n County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requirements . City of Novato understands that it must engage in the following planning process , as more fully descri bed fn FEMA's Local Mit igation Planning Handbook. including , but not lim ited to : • Identification of ha zards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master plann ing document; • The conduct of a vulnerabil ity analysis and an identification of risks , where they differ from the general planning area ; • The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals . A 922 MACHIN AVENUE, NOVATO, CA 94945 I PHONE : 415 .899.8900 I NOVATO .ORG Mny,n fm L,1 ,1, I Mny,;r Pro T1-m 511,~n w-miri (01Jncll111<1r1 t ,F, ')er,1,e ,,u, ,., • f'JI £I ll1r.J • M,u I• Mi ll.w, • C11v Man.1t:c'I I ,itl 111 Mc(ull 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 500 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ range of actions must be identified specific for each jurisdiction: • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportuntty for participation 1n the planning process by all community stakeholders (examples of participation include relevant invo lvement ln any planning process, attending meetings , contributing research , data, or other information , commenting on drafts of the p lan, etc .); and • Documentation of an effective process to mai nta in and implement the plan; and , • Formal adoption of the Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by the ju risd iction's governing body (each jurisdiction must officially adopt the plan). Therefore , with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan ; I, Adam McGil/, City Manager, commit City of Novato to the Marin County's Multi-jurisd ictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort. This document is executed this 15 day of December , 2022 . Adam McGill, City Manager City of Novato 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 501 l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ February 6, 2023 ~ ToM'N ROSS Office of Emergency Management Marin County Fire 1600 Los Gamos Drive San Rafael, CA. 94903 Re: Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's {FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201.6 specifically identify criteria that allows for multi-jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comprehensively by coordinating at the county, regional, or watershed leve l, the Town of Ross is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that Town of Ross agrees to participate in the Marin County's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning. Furthermore, as a condition of participation in the mitigation planning, the Town of Ross agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201.6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requirements . The Town of Ross understands that it must engage in the following planning process, as more fully described in FEMA's· Local Mitigation Planning Handbook. including, but not limited to : Identification of hazards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document; The conduct of a vulnerability analysis and an identification of risks , where they differ from the general p lanning area; The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public i nput and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals . A range of actions must be identified specific for each jurisdiction ; Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the p lanning process by all community stakeholders (examples of participation include relevant involvement in any planning process, attending meetings, contributing research , data, or other information , commenting on drafts of the plan, etc.); and Documentation of an effective process to maintain and imp lement the plan; and, Formal adoption of the Multi-jurisdictiona l Hazard Mitigation Plan by the jurisdiction 's governing body (each jurisdiction must officially adopt the plan). P.O . BOX 320 , ROSS , CA 94957 -0320 415.453 .1453 • FAX 415.453.1950 www .townofross.org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 502 l ~<;>U·N· TY O F ~ARIN a ~ Therefore, with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by partic ipating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a mu lti-jurisdictiona l plan; I, Christa Johnson, Town Manager for the Town of Ross , does hereby acknow ledge a commitment on behalf of the Town of Ross to participating in the Marin County's Mu lti-ju r isdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort. This document is executed this _k day of r::-li914 Ch J,1/4 ~ 2023 . Town Manager, Town of Ross 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 503 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Steve Burdo Mayor Eileen Burke ViceMoyor TOWN OF SAN ANSELMO EST . 1907 Town of San Anselmo 525 San Anselmo Avenue, San Anselmo, CA 94960-2682 (415) 258 -4616 WINW towhofsananselmo.o rg February 6, 2023 Office of Emergency Management Marin County Fire 1600 Los Gamos Drive San Rafael, CA. 94903 Re : Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: Alexis Fi neman Council Member Brian Colbert Council Member Tarrell Kullaway Council Member As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's {FEMA} Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201.6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi- jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comprehensively by coordinating at the county, r egional, or watershed level, the Town of San Anselmo is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that the Town of San Anselmo has agreed to participate in the Marin County's Multi- jurisd i ctional Hazard Mitigation Planning. Furthermore, as a condition of participation in the mitigation planning, the Town of San Anselmo, agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201 .6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requirements. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 504 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ The Town of San Anselmo understands that it must engage in the following planning process, as more fully described in FE MA's Local M itig ation Plann i ng Ha ndbook. including, but not limited to: • Identification of hazards unique to the jurisd iction and not addressed in the master planning document; • The conduct of a vulnerab i lity analysis and an ident ification of risks, where they d iffer from the general planning area ; • The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public i nput and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals . A range of actions must be i dentified specific for each jurisdiction; • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the planning process by all community stakeholde rs (examples of participation i nclude re levant involvement in any planning process, attend ing meetings, con t ributi ng research, data, or other information, commenting on drafts of the plan, etc.); and • Documentation of an effective process to maintain and imp lement the plan; and, • Formal adoption of the Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by the jurisdiction's govern i ng body (each j urisd i ction must officially adopt the plan). Therefore, with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating i n the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan; I, Dave Denery, the Town Manager, commit the Town of San Anse l mo to the Marin County's Multi- jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort. r 's 6th day of February, 2023 . Dave Denery, Town Manager Town of San Anselmo 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 505 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ November 29, 2022 Marin County Administrator's Office 3501 Civic Center Drive #325 San Rafael , CA 94903 Re: Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Multi- jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's \FEMA) Local M[Ugation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201.6 spec ifically identify criteria that all ow for multi- jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comp rehensiv ely by coordinating at the cou nty, regional , or watershed level, the City of San Rafael is submitting this letter of commitment to confi rm that the City of San Rafael has agreed to participate in the Marin County's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning. Furthem10re , as a cond ition of participation in the mitigation planning the City of San Rafae l, agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201.6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in confo rmance with FEMA requirements. The City of San Rafae l understands that i t must engage in the fol l owing planning process, as more fully described in FEMA's Local Mitigation Pl anning Handbook. including, but not limited to: • Identification of hazards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document; • The conduct of a vulnerabi li ty analysis and an identification of risks , where they differ from the general planning area; • The formulation of mitigation goa ls responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions comp lementary to those goa ls. A range of actions must be identified spec ific for each jurisdiction; • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in t he planning process by all comm uni ty stakeholders (examples of participation inc lu de relevant involvement in any planning process, attending CITY OF SAN RAFAEL I 1400 FIFTH AVENUE, SAN RAFAEL. CALIFORNIA 94901 CITYOFSANRAFAELORG Kale Colin , Mayor• Rochel Kertz , Vice Mayor· Maribeth Bush ey . Counci lmomber • Eli Hill . Counci lmember • Maika, Llo ren s Gulati , Councilmember 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 506 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ meetings , contributing research , data , or other information, commenting on drafts of the plan , etc.); and • Documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan ; and, • Formal adoption of the Mul ti-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by the jurisdiction's governing body (each j urisd iction must officially adopt the plan). Therefo re, with a full understanding of the ob ligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation p lanning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan ; I, Jim Schutz, commit the City of San Rafae l to the Mar in County's Multi -jurisdictional Haza rd Mitigation Planni ng effort. Th is document is executed this 29 m day of November 2022. Jim Schutz City Manager CITY OF SAN RAFAEL I 1400 FIFTH AVENUE, SAN RAFAEL, CALIFORNIA 94901 CITYOFSANRAFAELORG Kale Colin , Mayor • Rochel Kertz , Vice Mayor · Maribeth Bushey , Cou nci lmembor • Eli Hill, Counci lmernbor • Maika Llorens Gulati, Cour,c ilmombor 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 507 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Do cuSign Envel op e I D: DB4CA582-DE1 D-4BA9-8 183-CD970254E3EB CITY OF SAUSALITO December 6, 2022 Marin County Office of Emergency Services Marin County Sheriffs Office 1600 Los Gamos Dr. #200 San Rafael , CA 94903 Re : Letter of Commitment Jane lle Kellm an , Mayo r C h ris Zapa t a, C i ty Manager 420 Li tho Street , Sausalito, Cali fornia 94965-·1933 Te lephone: 415-289-41 00 C WWW S1UJSAI.ITO .GO\f File No .: 11 .18 .02 Marin County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201 .6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi- jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comprehensively by coordinating at the county , regional , or watershed level , the City of Sausalito is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that the City of Sausalito has agreed to participate in the Marin County's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning . Furthermore, as a cond ition of participation in the mitigation planning , the City of Sausalito agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201 .6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requirements . The City of Sausalito understands that it must engage in the following planning process , as more fully described in FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook includ ing, but not limited to: Identification of hazards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document; The conduct of a vulnerability analysis and an identification of risks, where they differ from the general planning area ; The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals . A range of actions must be identified specific for each jurisdiction ; Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the plann ing process by all community stakeholders (examples of participation include relevant involvement in any planning process , attending meetings , contributing research , data , or other info r mation , commenting on drafts of the plan , etc.); and Documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan ; and , Formal adoption of the Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mit igation Plan by the jurisdiction's governing body (each jurisdiction must officially adopt the plan). The r efore , with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-j urisdictional plan ; I, C ity of Admini::,tri;\tiun: (415) 289-4167 Rccr(:ation: (4 15) 289-4 189 FAX NU1'1IlERS: Community Di.:vdupml!nt: (415) ~39-2256 Publi c Worl.s Engineer ing: (415) ;3~J9 -2256 Library: (415) 331-7943 Public Wor"ks. M11intemmrc: (4 15) 289-4 138 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 508 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Docu Sign Envelope ID 0B4CA!'>82-DE1D-4BA9-810:H:0970254E3EB Marin County Emergen 1:v Se rvices December 6, 2022 Page 2 Sausalito City manager, commit the City of Sausalito to the Marin County's Multi- jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort . This document is executed this 6th day of December 2022 . Sincerely, City of Sausalito Chris Z.3pata City Manager cc : Kevin McGowan , Public Works Director 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 509 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ Southern Marin Fire Protection District Christian Tubbs , Fire Chief December 12, 2022 28 Liberty Ship Way, STE 2800 Sausalito, California 94965 Phone : 415-388-8182 Marin County Office of Emergency Services Marin County Sheriffs Office 1600 Los Gamos Dr. #200 San Rafae l, CA 94903 Re : Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard Mitigation Officer: Fax : 415-388-8181 As the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201.6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi- jurisd ictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating hazards more comprehensively by coordinating at the county, regional, or watershed level, the Southern Marin Fire Protection District is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that Southern Marin Fi re Protection District has agreed to participate in the Marin County's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning . Furthermore, as a condition of participation in the mitigation planning, Southern Marin Fire Protection District, agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identified in 44 CFR §201.6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to the Marin County to complete the plan in conformance with FEMA requirements . Southern Marin Fire Protection District understands that it must engage in the following planning process, as more fully described in FEMA's Local Miti g ation Plann ing Handbook . including, but not limited to: • Identification of hazards unique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document; • The conduct of a vulnerability analysis and an identification of risks , where they differ from the general planning area; • The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals. A range of actions must be identified specific for each jurisdiction; 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 510 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the planning process by all community stakeholders (examples of participation include relevant involvement in any planning process, attending meetings, contributing research , data, or other information , commenting on drafts of the plan, etc.); and • Documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan; and , • Formal adoption of the Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan by the jurisdiction's governing body ( each jurisdiction must officially adopt the plan). Therefore , with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan; 1, Chris Tubbs , Fire Chief, comm it Southern Marin Fire Protection District to the Marin County's Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort. This document is executed this 12th day of December, 2022. Chris Tubbs Southern Marin Fire Protection District, Fire Chief 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 511 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ To wn omburcn • 150 5 Tibumn Boul..,..,-d •Tiburon, CA 94920 • V. 415.435 .7373 I' 415.435.2438 • www.u,wn<>fti bu mn .org November 30, 2022 Marin County Office of Emergency Services 1600 Los Gamos Drive San Rafael, CA 94903 Re : Letter of Commitment as Participating Jurisdiction in Marin County Mult i-jurisdict ional Hazard Mitigation Planning Dear State Hazard M itigation Officer : As t he Fede r al Emergency Management Agency 's (FEMA) Local Mitigation Plan requirements under 44 CFR §201.6 specifically identify criteria that allow for multi- jurisdictional mitigation plans and that many issues are better resolved by evaluating haza rds more comprehensively by coord inating at the county, regiona l, or watershed level, the Town of Tiburon is submitting this letter of commitment to confirm that the Town of Tiburon has agreed to p articipate in the Marin County's Multi-jur isdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning. Furthermore, as a condition of parti cipation in the mitigation planning, the Town of Tiburon, agrees to meet the requirements for mitigation plans identifi ed in 44 CFR §201.6 and to provide such cooperation as is necessary and in a timely manner to t he Marin County to complete the plan in con formance with FEMA requirements . The Town of Tiburon understands that it must engage in the following planning process , as more fully described in FEMA's Loca l Miti ga t ion Planning Handbook. i ncluding, but not limited to: Identification of hazards un ique to the jurisdiction and not addressed in the master planning document; Jon Welner Mayor ficlt~ Vice Mayor Noah Griffin Coundlrnember Holli'llller CO unc:ilmembte r Gre,Cbarm Tuwn Managu 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 512 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ The conduct of a vulnerability analysi5 and an identification of risks, where they differ from the general planning area; The formulation of mitigation goals responsive to public input and development of mitigation actions complementary to those goals. A range of actions rnust be identified specific for each jurisdiction; • Demonstration that there has been proactively offered an opportunity for participation in the planning process by all community stakeholders (examples of participation include relevant involvement in any planning process, attending meetings, contributing research, data, or other information, commenting on drafts of the plan , etc.); and • Documentation of an effective process to maintain and implement the plan; and , • Formal adoption of the Multi-jurisdictional Haz;:ird Mitigation Plan by the jurisdiction's governing body (each jurfsdiction must officially adopt the plan). Therefore, with a full understanding of the obligations incurred by participating in the FEMA hazard mitigation planning process as a participant in a multi-jurisdictional plan; I, Greg Chanis, Town Manager, commit the Town of Tiburon to the Marin County's Multi• jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning effort. This do'"m~•:•d this 16 day of Novembe, 2022 . Manager, Town of Tiburon 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 513 APPENDIX B: DOCUMENTATION OF THE PLANNING PROCESS l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ COUNTY OF MARIN 2023 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plans Project Kickoff Meeting Steering Committee Meeting Agenda October 26, 2022, from 10:00 am -11:00 am I. Welcome and Introductions II. Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview Ill. Plan Overview-Steps and Timeline IV. Planning Process V. Community Profiles VI. Planning Goals and Objectives VII. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment VIII . Status of the Current Hazard Mitigation Projects IX. Identify New Hazard Mitigation Projects List X. Planning Team XI. Next Steps XII. Questions & Concluding Remarks To pic: Marin County MJHMP Kick-off Steering Team Meeting Time: Oct 26, 2022 10:00 AM Pacific Time {US and Canada) Join Zoom Meeting https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88065994372?pwd=N3ZkdnR0bmlhQVErSUZXQVBiZFF3QT09 Meeting ID: 880 6599 4372 Pas scode : 848288 ~11iv c onsulting PO Box 143 Vacaville, CA 95696 (707) 685-2209 Preparative.org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 514 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ I ~<?U_N. TY OF ~RIN 2023 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Project Kickoff Meeting Steering Committee Meeting Sign-In Sheet October 26 , 2022, from 10:00 am -11 :00 am Join Zoom Meeting https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88065994372?pwd=N3ZkdnR0bmlhQVEr5UZXQVBiZFF3QT09 Meeting ID : 880 6599 4372 Passcode: 848288 1. 10 :24 :27 From Paul Bockrath : Paul Bockrath, Preparative Consulting 2. 10 :24 :29 From Kate , San Rafael : Kate Hagemann, city of san Rafael 3. 10 :24 :44 From Beb : Beb Skye, Marin County DPW 4. 10:24:45 From Hannah Lee : Hannah Lee, Senior Civil Engineer, Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District 5 . 10 :24 :52 From Leslie Lacko : Le slie Lacko I Marin County CDA 6. 10:24:55 From Rich Simonitch : Rich Simonitch Town of Ros s 7. 10:24:57 From Scott Schneider: Scott Schneider, As st. Public Works Director, Town of San Anselmo 8. 10:25:00 From Woody Baker-Cohn/ Marin OES : Woody Baker-Cohn/ Assistant Emergency Manager/ Marin OES 9. 10 :25 :02 From Kevin McGowan, Sausalito DPW : Kevin McGowan, public works director from City of Sausalito is present . 10. 10 :25 :03 From Feli x Meneau: Felix Meneau, Marin County DPW/Water Resources 11. 10 :25 :03 From Victoria LaMar-Haa s, Cal OES : Victoria LaMar-Haas, Cal OES Local Mitigation Planning 12 . 10 :25:04 From Joanna K : Joanna Kwok, Senior Civil Engineer, City of San Rafael 13. 10 :25:05 From Chris Good -Corte Madera : Chris Good, Senior Civil Engineer, Town of Corte Madera Public Work s 14. 10 :25:08 From Loren Umberti s, Town of Fairfa x : Loren Umbertis, Public Works Director, Town of Fairfax 15. 10 :25:11 From Jennifer Blackman : Jennifer Blackman, General Manager, Bolinas Community Public Utility District 16. 10 :25 :21 From Richard Diaz SRFD/OES: Richard Dia z -Community Disa ster Preparedn ess Coordinato r -City of San Rafael 17 . 10 :25 :24 From David Block -Preparative: David Block, Preparative Consulting 18. 10 :25 :29 From mlockaby: Mark Lockaby Building Official Town of Fairfa x 19. 10 :25 :32 From MCFD Staging User ipad iOS 11.2 .1 HP34 (3)Tiger : Scott Alber, MCFD ~~ P(O s 1 ox 143 Vacaville, CA 95696 'on sulting 707 685-2209 Preparative.erg 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 515 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ I ~<?U.N. TY OF ~RIN 2023 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Project Kickoff Meeting 20 . 10:26 :07 From Greg Pea se -La s Gallias Va l ley Sanitary Di strict : Greg Pea se - Collection System/Mainte nance/S afety Manage r -La s Gall ina s Valley Sanita ry Di strict 21. 10:45:22 From Chris Reilly : Chris Reilly, Emergency Services M anager, M arin 22. 23. 24 . County OES 11:00 :58 From Cory Bytof : Cory Bytof, City of San Rafael Sustainability From David Dammu l ler, City of Novato Public Works From Jared Pe ri, Cal DES Local Mitigation Planning PO Box 143 Vaca ville, CA 95696 (707) 685-2209 Preparative.org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 516 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ l ~<?U,NTY OF ~RIN • . 2023 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Hazard Meeting Steering Committee Meeting Agenda October 26, 2022, from 10:00 am -11 :00 am I. Welcome and Introductions II. Plan Overview -Steps and Timeline Ill. Jurisdictiona l Points of Contact IV. Jurisdictional Letter of Commitment V. Identify Planning Team Members VI. Ha zard Identification and Risk Assessment VII. Jurisdictional Profiles VIII. Status of the Current Hazard Mitigation Projects IX. Next Steps X. Questions & Concluding Remarks Top ic: Marin County MJHMP Steering Team Meeting Time : November 9, 2022 10:00 AM Pacific Ti me (US and Canada) Join Zoom Meeting https ://us06web.zoom .us/j/83506781602?pwd=TThmN2d6NVNIVHdJRFBaO0tzbHZIZz09 Meeti ng ID : 835 06781602 Pa ssc ode : 747816 One tap mob i le + 16699006833,,83 5067 81 602#,,,, *747 816# US (San Jo se) + 14086380968,,83 506781602#,,,, *747816# US (S an Jo se) ~~ ~ons uli-i1,g PO Box 143 Vaca ville, CA 95696 (707) 685-2209 Preparative.org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 517 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ Sign_n Sheet Marin Co . MJHMP Steering Committee Mtg 110922 10 :02:55 10 :03:14 10·:IB:15 Works Director, 10 : 03: 17 10:03:20 10 :03:26 Marin County DPI~ From Paul Bockrath : Paul Bockrath, Preparative Consulting From Tim Fuette (NM l~D) : Tim Fuette, Senior Engineer, NMl~D From Loren Umbertis, Town of Fairfax : Loren Umbertis, Public Town of Fairfax From Leslie Lacko : Leslie Lac .ko I Marin County CDA From Richard Diaz SRFD/OES Richard Diaz, City of San Rafael From Julia Elkin (she/her) Marin County DPW : Julia Elkin, 10·: 03: 3S From Joanna K : Joanna Kwok, City of San Rafael, Senior Civil Engineer 10:03:38 From Jennifer Blackman : Jennifer Blackman, General Manager, Bolinas Community Public Utility District 10:03:45 From Dave Jeffries : David Jeffries, JPSC for City of Novato and Novato Fire District, Consultant 10:04:02 fr'om Andrew Davidson : Andrew Davidson, City of Sausalito, Senior Engineer 10:04:08 From David -City of Novato: David Dammuller, Engineering Services Manager, City of Novato 10:04:19 From Greg Pease -Las Gallias Valley Sanitary District : Greg Pease, Collection System/Maintenance/Safety Manager> Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District 10:04:27 From Eric Miller (NMWO) : Eric Miller, Assistant GM/Chief Engineer, North Marin Water District 10:04:54 From Richard Sirnonitch : Richard Simonit c:h, Public Works Director -Town of Ross 10:06:37 10:07:21 Flood control 10: 10 :49 Manager From From & Water From Chris Reilly : Chris Reilly Marin DES Hannah Lee : Hannah Lee, senior Civil Engineer, Marin County Conservation District Ahmed Aly Mill Valley : Ahmed Aly, Mill Valley Project 10:13:01 From Felix Meneau : Felix Meneau, Capital Planning Project Manager -Marin County Flooct control & l~ater Conservation District 11:47 :23 From Kevin McGowan, Sausalito DPW : Kevin McGowan, City of Sausalito 11: 48: 36 Anselmo From Erica Freeman : Erica Freeman, Building Official Town of San 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 518 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 2023 Marin County COUNTY OF MARIN Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan ....__......._~-Project Kickoff Meeting Planning Team Meeting Agenda December 6, 2022, from 10:00 am -11:00 am I. Welcome and Introductions II. Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview Ill. Plan Overview -Steps and Timeline IV . Planning Process V. Community Profiles VI. Planning Goals and Objectives VII. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment VIII. Status of the Current Hazard Mitigation Projects IX. Identify New Hazard Mitigation Projects List X. Planning Team XI. Public Outreach XII. Next Steps XIII. Questions & Concluding Remarks Top ic: Marin County Hazard Mitigation Planning Tea m Kickoff Meeting Time: Dec 6, 2022 10:00 AM Pa ci fi c Time (US and Canad a) Jo in Zoom M eeti ng https: // us06web .zoom .us/j /89164164111 ?pwd=ZD I kS I RtZStq bzV rR U FyYn pz bHJQUT09 Meeti ng ID : 891 6416 4111 Passcode: r:279805 One tap mobile + 14086 380968 ,,891 64164111#,,,, *279 805# US (San Jo se) +16694449171,,89164164111#,,,, *279805# us ~ I PO Box 143 Vacaville, CA 95696 ~,t_iv e (7 0 7) 685 -2209 Pre parative.org onsult1ng 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 519 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ MCM LHMP Planning Team Kiokoff Meeting Sign In Sheet 120622 10:07:02 From Loren Umbertis, Town of Fairfax Works Director, Town of Fairfax 10:07:05 From Cory Bytof j City of San Rafael Bytof, City of San Rafael, sustainability Program 10:07:06 From Tim Fuette (NMWD) : Tim Fuette 10:07:17 From Woody Baker-Cohn/ Marin OES : Marin OES/OEM Loren Umbertis, public he/him ; 5i,gning in: Cory (NMl1D) t~oody Baker -Cohn / Asst EM / 10:07:40 From Planning & Building - Irene Borba -City of Belvedere : Irene Borba -Director of City of Belvedere 10:07:40 From Richard Simonitch : Rich Si.monitch, Town of Ross 10:07:44 From Dale McDonald : Dale McDonald/ Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District 10:07:47 Richard Diaz From Richard Diaz : Signing in: Office of Emergency Services City of San Rafael 10:07:49 From Dave Jeffries : Dave Jeffries, City of Novato and Novato Fire District 10:07:56 From 10:08:04 From Public l~orks Director, 10:08:2S From David Block: David Block, Preparative Consulting Kevin McGowan, Sausalito DPW: Signing in : Kevin McGowan, City of Sausalito; kmcgowan@sausalito.gov Svetlana: Svetlana Smorodinsky, CA Department of Public Health 10:08:25 From Scott Schneider: Scott Schneider, Town of San Anselmo Public l~orks 10:08:33 10:08:34 10:08:38 San Anselmo, 10:08:40 Corte Madera From Eric Miller (NMWD) : Eric Miller, North Marin Water District From Joanna Kwok: Joanna Kwok, City of San Rafael From Erica Freeman, Building Official : Erica Freeman, Town of Building Official From RJ Suokko, Corte Madera Signing in ; RJ Suokko, Town of 10:08:42 From Tom Welch Mill Valley and SMFD Fire Department Tom l~elch City of Mill valley and Southern Ma rin Fire Protection District 10:08 :42 From Jennifer Blackman : Jennifer Blackman, General Manager, Bolinas Community Public Utility Dist·rict 10 :08:48 From Stephen Marcotte: Stephen Marcotte -Bolinas Fire Protection District 10108:48 From Patrick Kelly, City of Mill Valley: Patrick Kelly , Director of Planning & Building, City of Mill Valley 10:08:57 From David -City of Novato: David Dammuller, City of Novato 10:09:08 From Sam Bonifacio, Town of Tiburon : Samantha Bonifac io, Town of Tiburon ( Assistant Planner) 10:09:17 From Ahmed Aly Mill Valley : Ahmed A Aly, P.E. City of Mill Valley Project Manager 415-384 -4755 aaaly@c i tyofnlillvalley. org Twitter: @MillValleyDPl~ 10:09:39 From Laurie Nilsen : Laurie Nilsen, Emergency services Coordi nator, Belvedere and Tiburon - 10:24:05 From Tom Welch Mill valley and SMFD Fire Department : Tom l~elch southenn Marin Fire Protection District, Deputy Chief of Operations. twelch@smfd.org. 11:16:40 From Cory Bytof I City of San Rafael I he/him: San Rafael City Schools 11:18:39 From Svetlana Smorodinsky CDPH : County of Marin Department of Health and Human Services 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 520 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ • 2023 Marin Coun t y Mu lt i-Juri sd ictional Hazard Mitigation Pl an Planning Team Meeting Agenda March 7, 2023, from 9 :00 am -11:00 am Planning Team Project Overview (9:00 am -9:50 aml (REQUIRED for Planning Team/OPTIONAL for Steering Committee) I. Welcome and Introductions II. Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview Ill. Plan Overview -Steps and Timeline IV. Community Overview V. Planning Process VI. Planning Goals and Objectives VII. Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment VIII. Stakeholders and Planning Team Identification Meeting Break (9:50 am -10:00 am) Planning Team Meeting (10:00 am -11:00 am} (REQUIRED for Planning Team AND Steering Committee) IX. Public Outreach X. Planning Goals and Objectives XI. Hazard Risk Ranking Worksheets XII. Jurisdictional Profiles XIII. Jurisdictional/ District Capability Assessment XIV . 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update XV. Next Steps XVI. Questions & Concluding Remarks Jo in Zoom Meet i ng ~ttps://us06 web .zoom.us/j/85488557965?pwd=cklySmNna0pCKOhQVjBhMIAOMIUyQT09 Mee t ing ID : 854 8855 7965 Passco de: 979049 One tap mo bi le + 16 699 006833,,854885579 65#,,,, *979049# US (Sa n Jose ) + 1408638 0968,,85488557965#,,,, *979049# US (Sa n Jose ) ~~ ~ons ulti11g PO Box 143 Vacaville, CA 95696 (707) 685-2209 Preparative .org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 521 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ I ~OUN1YOF ~RIN Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Planning Team Meeting 030723 Sign-In 1. 09 :05:0 Manager 2 . 09:06 :19 3. 09:09 :30 4 . 09:09 :32 5. 09:09 :47 6. 09:10:01 Marin County MJHMP Planning Meeting 030723 From Greg Pease : Greg Pease, LGVSD Collections System/Maintenance/Safety From Woody Baker-Cohn: Woody· Baker-Cohn/ Marin OEM/ Asst EM From Chris Reilly: Chris Reilly, Marin County Fire OEM From Scott Alber : Scott Alber, MCFD From Andy : Andrew Davidson, City of Sausalito From Sarah Finnigan -Cal : Sa rah Finnigan , Cal OES 7 . 09 :11:13 From DANIEL RODRIGU EZ : DANIEL RODR IGUEZ, Secu ri ty, Emergency Management Specialist Go ld en Gate Bridge, Highway & Tran sportation Dist rict 8. 09:14:13 From Dais y Allen , Mil l Val ley: Daisy Al len, City of Mill Valley Planning 9. 09:15:34 From hannah lee : Hannah Lee , County of Marin DPW and Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District 10. 09 :16 :55 From Steven Torrence -Marin County OEM : Steven Torrence , Director of Emergency Management, Office of Emergen cy Management 11. 09 :18:11 From Marshall Nau : Marshall Nau, Fire Inspector, Southern Marin Fire District 12. 09 :54 :55 From Daisy Allen , Mi l l Val ley 13 . 09:55:01 Fr om Victoria LaMar-Haas , Ca l OES: Victoria LaMar-Haa s, Program Manager, Ca l OES Local Mitigation Pl anning 14. 10:02 :38 From David -City of Novato : David Dammuller, Engineering Services Manager, City of Novato 15. 10:03:48 16. 10 :03 :54 17. 10:04:19 18. 10:04:22 19. 10 :04 :3 4 20 . 10 :04 :42 21. 10:04:51 Dist rict 22. 10 :06 :46 From Dave Jeffries : Dave Jeffries, City of Novato From Scott Schneider : Scott Schneider, To wn of San Anselmo From Tim Fuette (NMWD): Tim Fuette, NMWD From Laurie Nilsen : Lauri e Nilsen, Town ofTiburon & City of Be lvedere OES From Sam Bonifacio -Tiburon Planning : Sam Bonifacio, Town of Tiburon From Julia El kin (she/her), Marin County DPW : Julia Elkin , Marin County DPW From Jennifer Bla ck man : Jennifer Blackman, So linas Community Pub lic Utility From Markus Lansdown e -Caltrans D4 : Markus Lansdowne -Caltrans District 4 Em erge ncy Operations Coordinator 23 . 10 :13:46 From Pa t ri ce Chamberlain-CDPH En viro & 0cc Health Emergency Prep 24 . 10:45 :15 From Les lie. Lacko : Leslie Lac ko, CDA, Marin Count y 25. 10:48 :2 1 From Svet lana Smorodin sky : CDPH Disaster Ep id emiologist/ Environmental & Occupa tio nal Emergency Preparedness Team Additional Meeting Attendees 26 . Amber Davis: Marin County Publi c Health 27. Chr is LeBaudour : Marin County EMS Authority 28 . Daniel le Jessup : Ca l OES Dam Safety Planning Division 29. Eric Goldman: Marin Water Dis t rict 30. Jennifer McGill : 31. Je sse Sanchez : 32. Juli e Ek strom : CA. Dept. of Water Reso ur ces 33 . Loren Um beris: Fairfax Public Works 34. Quinn Gardner : San Rafae l 35. Ri ch Simonitch: 36. Richard Diaz : San Rafae l FD 37. RJ Suokko: Corte Madera 38. Ahmed Aly : Mill Valley 39. Lan ey Davidson: Marin County 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 522 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ • . 2023 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Planning Team Meeting Agenda April 4, 2023, from 10 :00 am -11 :00 am I. Welcome and Introductions II. HMGP (DR -4683} Funding Timeline Ill. Public Outreach IV . Planning Goals and Objectives V. Jurisdictional Hazard Vulnerability Maps VI. Jurisdictional Profiles VII. Jurisdictional/ District Capability Assessment VIII. 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update IX. Next Steps X. Questions & Concluding Remarks Topic : Marin County MJHMP Planning Team Meeting 040423 Time: Apr 4, 2023 10:00 AM Pac ific Tim e (US and Canada) Jo in Zoom Meeting https :// us06web .zoom . us/j/8962 42 64855 ?pwd=VTN G Vl VtUzgyVHVvN UM xR m 9QL0ZRd z09 Meeting ID : 896 2426 4855 Passcode : 283612 On e tap mobile + 16694449171,,89624264855#,,,, *283612# us +16699006833,,89624264855#,,,,*283612# US (San Jose) ~1ti c. onsulting PO Box 143 Vacaville, CA 95696 (707) 685-2209 Preparative.org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 523 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ COUNTY OF MARIN ...::,._~"'-~- 1. 10:01:52 2. 10:01:57 3. 10:02 :08 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Planning Team Meeting 040423 Sign-In Sign_in Sheet Marin County MJHMP Planning Meeting 040423 From Paul Bockrath : Paul Bockrath, Preparative Con sulting From Woody Baker-Cohn : Woody Baker-Cohn/ Asst EM Marin OEM From Katherine Hagemann kate.hagemann@cityofsanrafael.org: kate Hagemann, city of sa n Rafael 4 . 10:02 :14 From Beb : Beb Skye , County of Marin 5. 10:02 :16 From Loren Umbertis, Public Works Director : Loren Umbertis, Director of Public Works, town of Fairfax 6. 10:02 :19 From Chris Good -Cort e Madera: Chris Good -Town of Corte Madera/Sanitary District No. 2 7. 10:02:20 Fr om Steven Torren ce-Director Marin County OEM: Steven Torrence -OEM Director -County of Marin 8. 10 :02:22 From Laurie Nilsen: Laurie Nilsen Belvedere and Tiburon Administrative and Emergency Services Coordinator 9. 10:02:23 From Jennifer Blackman : Jennifer Blackman, Bolinas Community Public Utility District 10. 10:02:31 From Kev in McGowan, Sausalito DPW: Kevin McGowan, City of Sausalito 11. 10:02:33 From Hannah Lee: Hannah Lee, Senior Civil Engineer, Marin County Department of Public Works and Flood Control & Marin County Water Conservation District 12. 10:02:34 From Sarah Finnigan -Cal OES : Sarah Finnigan , Cal OES, ESC 13 . 10 :02 :3 9 From Jennifer McGill : Jennifer McGill, Sonoma -Marin Area Rail Transit District 14. 10 :03 :02 From Sam Bonifacio, Town of Tiburon : Sam Bonifacio , Assistant Planner with the Town of Tiburon 15. 10 :03 :53 From Marshall Nau : Marshall Nau-Southern Marin Fire District 16. 10:05:26 From Dale McDonald : Dale McDonald -LGVSD 17. 10 :05 :36 18. 10:05:37 19. 10:05:53 20. 10:06:24 21. 10:06:40 From Richard Simonitch : Richard Simon itch Town of Ross From Central Marin Fire : Matt Cobb -Central Marin Fire From Scott Alber : Scott Alber, MCFD From Erica Freeman : Erica Freeman, Town of San Anselmo From patrice : Patrice Chamberlain -CA Dept of Public Health, Enviro & Occupationa l Emergency Prep Team 22. 10:08:56 From Daisy Allen , City of Mil.I Va l ley ; Daisy Allen, City of Mill Valley Planning 23. 10:09:23 Agency 24 . 10 :10 :14 From Le slie Lacko : Leslie Lac ko , Marin County Community Development From Quinn Gardner, San Rafael Dep Dir-Emergen cy Mgt (she/her) : Quinn Gardner, San Rafael Additional Meeting Attendees 1. Amber Davi s: Marin County Publi c Health 2. Ahmed Aly : Mill Valley 3. Daniel Rodriguez, Golden Gate Bridge, Highway & Transportation District 4 . Manny Albano, San Rafael S. Markus Lansdo wne, Caltrans 6. Scott Schneider, San Anselmo 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 524 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ • . 2023 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Steering Committee Meeting Agenda May 31, 2023, from 10 :00 am -11:30 am I. Welcome and Introductions II . HMGP (DR -4683) Funding Timeline Ill. Public Outreach Status IV . Jurisdictional Hazard Vulnerability Maps V. OEM Overview of Hazard Maps and Marin Maps VI . Marin Co. MJHMP Risk Assessment Tool Overview VII . 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update VIII. Hazard Working Groups IX. Next Steps X. Questions & Concluding Remarks Topic: Mari n County M JH MP Steer i ng Committee Meeting 053123 Time: May 31, 2023 10:00 AM Pacific Time (US and Canada) Join Zoom Meeti ng https://us06web.zoom .us/j/88549237300?pwd=YjFzdXh2UW9mdDZEMkZiQIZiM0VaQT09 M eeti ng ID : 885 4923 7300 Pa ssc od e : 477919 One tap mobile +16699006833,,88549237300#,,,, *477919# US (San Jose) +14086380968,,8854923 7300#,,,,*477919# US (San Jo se) ~~ ~onsulti11 g PO Box 143 Vaca ville, CA 95696 (707) 685-2209 Preparative.org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 525 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ COUNTY OF MARIN --~- Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Steering Committee Meeting 053123 Sign-In Sign_in Sheet Marin County MJHMP Planning Meeting 053123 Marin County MJHMP Steering Committee Meeting Chat 053123 10:02:50 From Paul Bockrath to Everyone: Paul Bockrath, Preparative Consulting 10 :03:45 From Woody Baker-Cohn to Everyone: Woody Baker-Cohn/ Marin OEM 10 :03:46 From Rich Simonitch to Everyone: Rich Simonitch, Town of Ross 10 :03:49 From Erica Freeman, Town of San Anselmo to Everyon e: Erica Freeman, Town of San Anselmo 10 :03:52 From Lor en Umb ertis, Public Works Director to Everyone : Loren Umbertis, Town of Fairfax 10 :03:56 From Beb to Everyone : Beb Skye -County of Marin 10 :03 :58 From Dave Jeffries to Everyone: Dave Jeffries -for City of Novato 10 :03 :59 From Julia Elkin I Marin County DPW to Everyone : Julia Elkin, M arinCounty 10 :04:04 From David -City of Novato to Everyone: David Dammuller, City of Novato 10 :04 :05 From Daisy Allen to Everyone : Daisy Allen, City of Mill Valley 10:04:15 From Chris Reilly to Everyone : Chri s Reilly, Marin County OEM 10 :04:17 From Marshall Nau to Everyone : Marshall Nau -Southern Marin Fire Protection District 10 :04:17 From Greg Pease -Las Gallinas Valley San itary District to Everyone : Greg Pease -Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District 10 :04 :48 From Tim Fuette (NMWD) to Everyone: Tim Fuette -NMWD 10 :04:SG From Eri c Miller -NMWD to Everyon e: Eric Miller -NMWD 10 :04 :56 From Scott Schneider to Everyo ne : Scott Schnei der, Town of San Anselmo 10:05 :11 From Ka therine Hagemann kate.hagemann@cityofsanrafael.org to Everyone : Kate Hagemann -City of San Rafael 10 :0S :19 From Steven Torrence -Director Marin County OEM to Everyone : Quinn Gardner -San Rafael 10 :05 :23 From Chris Good -Corte Madera to Everyone : Chris Good -Town of Corte Madera 10 :05 :3 9 From Steven Torrence -Director Marin County OEM to Everyone : Steven Torrenc e and Hannah Tarling-M arin County 10 :05:43 From Leslie Lacko (she/her) I Marin Co to Everyone: Leslie Lacko, Marin County CDA 10 :06:20 From David Bl ock to Everyone: David Block, Prepa rative Consulting 10:08:S4 From Joanna Kwok to Everyone: Joanna Kwok, San Rafael 10:24:34 From hannah lee to Everyone: Hannah Lee , Senior Civil Engineer, County of Marin and Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 526 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ • . 2023 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Planning Team Meeting Agenda June 27, 2023, from 10:00 am -12:00 pm I. Welcome and Introductions II . HMGP (DR-4683) & BRIC Grant Funding Timeline Ill. Public Outreach Status IV . Jurisdictional Hazard Risk Assessment Tool V. OEM Overview of Hazard Maps and Marin Maps VI . Marin County Hazards over the Last 5-Years VII . 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update VIII. 2023 Hazard Mitigation Projects/Capital Improvement Projects IX . Hazard Working Groups X. Next Steps XI. Questions & Concluding Remarks Top ic: Ma r in County MJHMP Planning Comm ittee Meeting 062723 Time : Jun 27, 2023 10:00 AM Pac ifi c Tim e {US and Canada) Join Zoom Meeting https ; // us06web.zoo m .us/j /81005069903? pwd=e TM lN ldCSEtY dG N I Yj cvTlcyL2 U 2Zz09 M ee t ing ID : 810 0506 9903 Passcode: 848497 One tap mobile + 16694449171,,81005069903#,,,, *84849 7# us +16699006 833,,81 005069903#,,,, *8484 97# US {San Jose) ~~ ~onsultiug PO Box 143 Vaca ville, CA 95696 (707) 685 -2209 Preparative.org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 527 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ COUNTY OF MARIN .:;........:s,..,....._ Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Steering Committee Meeting 062723 Sign-In Sign -In Sheet Marin County MJHMP Planning Meeting 062723 10:03:09 From Paul Bockrath to Everyone: Paul Bockrath, Preparative Consulting 10:04:19 From Daisy Allen to Everyone : Daisy Allen, Mill Valley Planning 10 :04:20 From Woody Baker-Cohn to Everyone: Woody Baker-Cohn/ Marin OEM 10 :04:21 From Rich Simonitch Town of Ross to Everyone: Rich Simonitch, Town of Ross 10 :04:23 From Lor en Umbertis to Everyon e: Loren Umbertis, Town of Fairfax 10 :04:25 From Kevin McGowan, Sausalito DPW to Everyone: Kev in McGowan , City of Sausalito 10 :04:29 From Tim Fuette (NMWD) to Everyone : Tim Fuette, NMWD 10 :04 :31 From Julia Elkin I Marin County DPW to Everyone: Julia Elk in , Marin County DPW 10 :04 :3 3 From Beb to Everyone : Beb Skye , County of Marin 10:04:45 From Chris Good -Corte Madera to Everyone: Chris Good -Corte Madera 10:04 :54 From hannah lee to Everyone : Hann ah Lee, County of Marin Public Works and Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District 10 :04:54 From brandon chapman to Everyone: Brandon Chapman, Golden Gate Bridge, Highway, and Transit District 10 :05 :03 From David -City of No vato to Everyone : David Dammuller, City of Novato 10 :05 :08 From Leslie La cko {she/her) I Marin Co to Everyone : Le s I ie La cko 10 :05 :12 From Hannah Tarling, Marin OEM to Everyone : Hann ah Tarling, County of Marin 10 :05 :20 From Dale McDonald, LGVSD to Everyon e: Good morning from Las Gallinas 10 :05:33 From Ezra Colman Central Marin Fire to Everyone: Ezra Colman Central Marin Fire 10:05 :49 From Scott Schneider to Everyone : Scott Schneider, Town of San Anselmo 10 :06 :00 From Svet to Everyon e: Svetlana Smorodinsky CA Dept of Public Health 10 :07 :00 From Patrice Chamberlain I CDPH Environmental Emerg ency Prep to Everyon e: Patrice Chamberlain, CA Dept of Pub li c Health 10 :07 :3 4 From Dale McDonald , LGVSD to Paul Bockrath(Direct Message): Dale McDonald, La s Gallinas Valley Sanitary Di strict 10 :08:24 From Ruben Martin, Central Marin Fire Chief to Everyone : Ruben Martin, Central Marin Fire 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 528 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ l ~<?U.NTY OF ~RIN 2023 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Planning Team Meeting Agenda November 27, 2023, from 2:00 pm - 3 :00 pm I. Welcome and Introductions II. Plan Overview -Steps and Timeline Ill. Planning Process IV. Hazard Identification V. Jurisdictional and District Profiles VI. Public Outreach Strategy VII . Next Steps VIII. Questions & Concluding Remarks Topic : Marin County OA MJHMP Final Planning Meeting Time : Nov 27 , 2023, 02 :00 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada) https ://us06web.zoom .us/j/89495636330?pwd=hCUbJ1LwrGAiWdlth8waxvhPLDHAN z.1 Meeting ID : 894 9 563 6330 Pas scode : 5717 84 ~~ ~onsulti1a g PO Box 143 Vacaville, CA 95696 (707) 685-2209 Preparative.org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 529 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ COUNTY OF MARIN 4.----"'l=-- Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Final Planning Team Meeting 112723 Sign-In Marin County OA MJHMP Final Planning Team Meeting Sign-In Sheet 14:03:56 From Paul Bockrath To Everyone : Paul Bockrath, Preparative Consulting 14:05:04 From Woody Baker-Cohn To Everyone: Woody Baker-Cohn 14:05:08 From Katherine Hagemann kate.hagemann@cityofsanrafael.org To Everyon e: l(ate Hagemann, City of San Rafael 14:05:09 From Quinn Gardner To Everyone: quinn gardner, city of san rafael 14:05 :10 From Loren Umberti s To Everyone: Loren Umbertis, Public Works Director, Town of Fairfax 14:05 :14 From Daisy Allen, City of Mill Valley To Everyone ; Daisy Allen, City of Mill Valley 14:05 :18 From Dale McDonald, LGVSD To Everyone: Dale McDonald , LGVSD 14:05 :18 From Marshall Nau To Eve ryone : Marshall Nau 14:05 :19 From David -City of Novato To Everyone: David Darnmuller, City of Novato 14:05 :21 From Jennifer Blackman To Everyone : Jennifer Blackman, General Manager, Bolinas Community Public Utility District 14:05:22 From iPhone To Ev e ryon e: Joanna Kwok, City of San Rafael 14:05 :22 From Dave Jeffries To Everyone: David Jeffries, JPSC for City of Novato and Novato Fire District 14:05:22 From RJ Suokko, Corte Madera To Everyone: RJ Suokko, Corte Madera 14:05 :22 From Sam Bonifacio To Everyone: 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 530 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ COUNTY OF MARIN ,C....---"'l~- Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Final Planning Team Meeting 112723 Sign-In Samantha Bonifacio, Town of Tiburon 14:05:24 From BebTo Everyone: Beb Skyte County of Marin DPW 14:05:32 From Erica Freeman To Ev eryone: Erica Freeman, San Anselmo 14:05 :34 From Marshall Nau To Eve ry one: Marshall Nau -Southern Marin Fire District 14:05 :35 From Patrice Chamberlain I CA Dept of Pub li c Hea lth To Everyone: hi a ll! Patrice Chamberlain, CA Dept of Public Hea lth 14:05:47 From Kevin McGowan, Sausa li to DPW To Ev eryone : Kevin McGowan, Sausa lito DPW 14:05:50 From max korten To Everyone: Max Korten, Marin County Parks 14 :05:53 From Ric hard Simonitch To Ev eryone : Richard Simonitch, Town of Ross 14:06 :01 From Tim Fuette {NMWD) To Everyone : Tim Fu erte, NMWD 14:06:03 From Svet la na To Everyone: Svet lana Smorodinsky, CDPH 14:06 :13 From Laney Davidson To Everyone : Laney Dav id son , County of Marin Disability Access Manager 14:07:28 From Sarah Finnigan -Cal OES To Everyone : Sarah Finnigan, Cal OES Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 1 / 19 Q1 How concerned are you about the following Hazards in your community? Answered: 293 Skipped: 0 Climate Change Dam Failure Drought Earthquake Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 2 / 19 Flooding Landslides/Eros ion/Debris... Land Subsidence... Levee Failure Sea Level Rise Severe Weather - Extreme Heat Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 3 / 19 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% Not Concer…Somewhat …Moderately…Very Conce… Severe Weather - Wind, Hail... Tsunami Wildfire • • • • Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 4 / 19 4.10% 12 10.24% 30 20.82% 61 64.85% 190 293 53.92% 158 25.60% 75 13.99% 41 6.48% 19 293 4.44% 13 11.26% 33 27.65% 81 56.66% 166 293 1.71% 5 22.87% 67 37.20% 109 38.23% 112 293 11.26% 33 24.57% 72 24.91% 73 39.25% 115 293 10.24% 30 30.03% 88 33.11% 97 26.62% 78 293 39.93% 117 35.15% 103 16.04% 47 8.87% 26 293 48.46% 142 25.26% 74 13.65% 40 12.63% 37 293 11.60% 34 23.21% 68 30.03% 88 35.15% 103 293 8.87% 26 21.84% 64 34.81% 102 34.47% 101 293 8.87% 26 27.30% 80 33.79% 99 30.03% 88 293 40.96% 120 34.47% 101 17.41% 51 7.17% 21 293 3.41% 10 11.95% 35 22.53% 66 62.12% 182 293 NOT CONCERNED SOMEWHAT CONCERNED MODERATELY CONCERNED VERY CONCERNED TOTAL Climate Change Dam Failure Drought Earthquake Flooding Landslides/Erosion/Debris Flows Land Subsidence (Sinkhole) Levee Failure Sea Level Rise Severe Weather - Extreme Heat Severe Weather - Wind, Hail, Lighting Tsunami Wildfire Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 5 / 19 Q2 What is the best way for you to receive information about how to make your home and the people in your home safer from natural disasters? Answered: 293 Skipped: 0 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 6 / 19 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% Television Radio Newspaper Cellphone Call Cellphone Text Home Phone (Landline) Social Media - Facebook,... County, City, or Official... Utility bill Mail - Letter or postcard School/ School District Church/ Religious... Community Group or Clubs Chamber of Commerce Outdoor Advertising ... Fire Station Postings Public Meetings Other (please specify) Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 7 / 19 16.04%47 19.45%57 27.65%81 8.19%24 51.19%150 9.90%29 23.89%70 38.57%113 15.02%44 41.30%121 3.41%10 1.02%3 10.58%31 1.71%5 9.90%29 6.14%18 24.23%71 17.06%50 Total Respondents: 293 ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Television Radio Newspaper Cellphone Call Cellphone Text Home Phone (Landline) Social Media - Facebook, Twitter, Nextdoor County, City, or Official Government website Utility bill Mail - Letter or postcard School/ School District Church/ Religious Institution Community Group or Clubs Chamber of Commerce Outdoor Advertising - Billboards, Sandwich Boards, Bulletin Boards Fire Station Postings Public Meetings Other (please specify) Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 8 / 19 1.37%4 19.45%57 31.40%92 47.78%140 Q3 How concerned are you that a natural disaster could threaten your home or place of residence? Answered: 293 Skipped: 0 TOTAL 293 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Not at all Somewhat Moderately Very Much ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Not at all Somewhat Moderately Very Much Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 9 / 19 Q4 In the following List, Please check those activities that you or someone in your household, Completed, Plan to do in the near future, Have not done, or are Unable to do. (Please check one answer per activity). Answered: 293 Skipped: 0 76.03% 222 9.59% 28 9.93% 29 1.03% 3 3.42% 10 292 1.46 67.47% 195 19.03% 55 9.69% 28 3.11% 9 0.69% 2 289 1.51 48.28% 140 32.76% 95 17.24% 50 1.38% 4 0.34% 1 290 1.73 62.12% 182 25.94% 76 10.92% 32 0.00% 0 1.02% 3 293 1.52 29.27% 84 9.41% 27 52.26% 150 4.88% 14 4.18% 12 287 2.45 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Completed.Planning to…Have not d…Unable to do. I do not hav… Attended meetings or received written... Talked with family members about what to do... Developed a “Household/Fa mily Emergency... Prepared a “Disaster Supply Kit” (extra foo... In the last year, has someone in your... COMPLETED.PLANNING TO DO. HAVE NOT DONE. UNABLE TO DO. I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH INFORMATION TO COMPLETE THIS TASK. TOTAL WEIGHTED AVERAGE Attended meetings or received written information on natural disasters or emergency preparedness. Talked with family members about what to do in case of a disaster or emergency. Developed a “Household/Family Emergency Plan” in order to decide what everyone would do in the event of a disaster. Prepared a “Disaster Supply Kit” (extra food, water, batteries, medications, first aid, and other emergency supplies). In the last year, has someone in your household been trained in First Aid or Cardio-Pulmonary Resuscitation (CPR). • • • • 1 • Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 10 / 19 Q5 Natural disasters can have a significant impact on a community, but planning for these events can help lessen the impact. The following statements will help us determine community priorities in planning for these hazards. Please tell us how important each one is to you? Answered: 293 Skipped: 0 61.94% 179 25.61% 74 8.30% 24 2.77% 8 1.38% 4 289 1.56 94.54% 277 4.78% 14 0.00% 0 0.34% 1 0.34% 1 293 1.07 48.12% 141 38.57% 113 8.53% 25 2.73% 8 2.05% 6 293 1.72 20.00% 58 46.90% 136 19.31% 56 9.31% 27 4.48% 13 290 2.31 78.35% 228 18.56% 54 2.75% 8 0.00% 0 0.34% 1 291 1.25 63.57% 185 23.37% 68 7.22% 21 3.44% 10 2.41% 7 291 1.58 66.55% 195 24.57% 72 6.14% 18 1.71% 5 1.02% 3 293 1.46 64.48% 187 24.48% 71 7.59% 22 2.07% 6 1.38% 4 290 1.51 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very Import…Somewhat I…Neutral Not As Imp… Not Import… Protecti ng private property Protecti ng critical facil... Protecti ng natural envir... Protecti ng historic al /... Protecti ng and reducing damag... Preventi ng developm ent i... Promotin g cooperat ion... Strength ening emergenc y... VERY IMPORTANT SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT NEUTRAL NOT AS IMPORTANT NOT IMPORTANT TOTAL WEIGHTED AVERAGE Protecting private property Protecting critical facilities (hospitals, transportation networks, fire stations) Protecting natural environment Protecting historical / cultural landmarks Protecting and reducing damage to utilities Preventing development in hazardous areas Promoting cooperation among public agencies, citizens, non-profit organizations and businesses Strengthening emergency services (police, fire, ambulance) • • • • • Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 11 / 19 Q6 Please provide your zip code Answered: 290 Skipped: 3 94901 94903 94904 94912 94913 94914 94915 94920 94924 94925 94929 94930 94933 94937 94938 94939 94940 94941 94942 I Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 12 / 19 94942 94945 94946 94947 94948 94949 94950 94957 94960 94963 94964 94965 94966 94970 94971 94973 94974 94976 94977 94978 94979 Other (please Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 13 / 19 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% Other (please specify)• Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 14 / 19 6.21%18 10.34%30 3.10%9 0.00%0 0.00%0 0.00%0 0.00%0 1.38%4 0.69%2 3.79%11 0.00%0 3.79%11 0.34%1 7.59%22 0.69%2 2.07%6 2.76%8 13.45%39 0.00%0 1.38%4 1.38%4 4.48%13 0.00%0 5.86%17 4.83%14 2.07%6 5.52%16 0.69%2 0.00%0 4.83%14 0.00%0 1.72%5 ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES 94901 94903 94904 94912 94913 94914 94915 94920 94924 94925 94929 94930 94933 94937 94938 94939 94940 94941 94942 94945 94946 94947 94948 94949 94950 94957 94960 94963 94964 94965 94966 94970 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 15 / 19 1.03%30.69%2 0.00%0 0.00%0 0.00%0 0.00%0 0.00%0 9.31%27 TOTAL 290 94971 94973 94974 94976 94977 94978 94979 Other (please specify) Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 16 / 19 Q7 Your City, Town, or Community Name Answered: 290 Skipped: 3 Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 17 / 19 85.37%245 14.63%42 Q8 Do you live within the limits of the specific City or Town listed in question #7? Answered: 287 Skipped: 6 TOTAL 287 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Yes No Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 18 / 19 1.03%3 84.14%244 14.14%41 0.69%2 Q9 Do you own, rent or share a home? Answered: 290 Skipped: 3 TOTAL 290 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% None of the above Own Rent Shared Housing ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES None of the above Own Rent Shared Housing Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 19 / 19 99.66%291 0.34%1 Q10 Do you have internet access at your home? Answered: 292 Skipped: 1 TOTAL 292 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yes No ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Yes No 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 551 Public Outreach Survey Spanish 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ l ~<?U.N. TY OF ~RIN Encuesta del Plan Local de Mitigaci6n de Riesgos Multi- Jurisdiccional del Condado de Marin en Espanol 1. lQue tan preocupado esta por los siguientes peligros en su comunidad? Moderadame nte No preocupado Algo preocupado preocupado Muy preocupado Cambia climatica 0 0 0 0 Falla de la presa 0 0 0 0 Sequia 0 0 0 0 Terremata 0 0 0 0 lnundaci6n 0 0 0 0 Deslizamientas de tierra/flujas de 0 0 0 0 escombros Falla del dique 0 0 0 0 Aumento del 0 0 0 0 nivel del mar Clima severo -0 0 0 0 Calar extrema Clima severa - vienta, graniza, 0 0 0 0 iluminaci6n Hundimiento de la tierra 0 0 0 0 (sumidero) Tsunami 0 0 0 0 Wildfire (Fuego) 0 0 0 0 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 552 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 2. lCual es la mejor manera de recibir informaci6n sobre c6mo hacer que su hogar y las personas en su hogar esten mas seguros de las desastres naturales? D Television D Radio D peri6dico D Llamada de telefono celular D Aumento del nivel del mar D Telefono residencial (fijo) D Redes sociales -Facebook, Twitter, Nextdoor D Sitio web del condado, la ciudad o el gobierno oficial D Factura D Correo -Carta o postal D Escuela / Distrito Escolar D Iglesia/ lnstituci6n religiosa D Grupo comunitario o clubes D Camara de Comercio D Publicidad exterior -vallas publicitarias, tableros de sandwiches, tablones de anuncios D Publicaciones en la estaci6n de bomberos D Reuniones publicas D Otro (especiffquese) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 553 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 3. lQue tan preocupado esta de que un desastre natural pueda amenazar su hogar o lugar de residencia? 0 Denada Q Atgo 0 Moderadamente 0 Mucho 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 554 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 4. En la siguiente lista, verifique aquellas actividades que usted o alguien en su hogar, Completado, planea hacer en el future cercano, no ha hecho o no puede hacer. (Marque una respuesta por actividad). Asisti6 a reuniones o recibi6 informaci6n escrita sobre desastres naturales o preparaci6n para emergencias. Habl6 con los miembros de la familia sobre que hacer en caso de un desastre o emergencia. Desarroll6 un "Plan de Emergencia para el Hogar / Familia" para decidir que harian todos en caso de un desastre. Prepar6 un "Kit de suministros para desastres" (alimentos adicionales, agua, baterias, medicamentos, primeros auxilios y otros suministros de emergencia). En el ultimo ano, lalguien en su hogar ha recibido capacitaci6n en primeros auxilios o reanimaci6n cardiopulmonar (RCP)? Completado 0 0 0 0 0 Plan para hacer No hecho 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Notengo suficiente informaci6n para completar esta Nose puede hacer tarea. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 555 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 5. Los desastres naturales pueden tener un impacto significativo en una comunidad, pero la planificaci6n de estos eventos puede ayudar a disminuir el impacto. Las siguientes declaraciones nos ayudaran a determinar las prioridades de la comunidad en la planificaci6n de estos peligros. Per favor, d1ganos que tan importante es cada uno para usted . Protecci6n de la propiedad privada Protecci6n de i nstalaciones criticas (hospitales, redes de transporte, estaciones de bomberos) Protecci6n del media ambiente natural Protecci6n de monumentos hist6ricos / culturales Protecci6n y reducci6n de danos a las servicios publicos Prevenci6n del desarrollo en zonas peligrosas Promover la cooperaci6n entre organismos publicos, ciudadanos, organizaciones sin animo de lucro y empresas Fortalecimiento de las servicios de emergencia (policfa, bomberos, ambulancia) Muy importante Algo importante Neutral 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 No es tan importante 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 No es importante 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 556 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 6. Por favor, proporcione su c6digo postal 0 94901 0 94903 0 94904 0 94912 0 94913 0 94914 0 94915 0 94920 0 94924 0 94925 0 94929 0 94930 0 94933 0 94937 0 94938 0 94939 0 94940 0 94941 0 94942 0 94945 0 Otro (especifiquese) 7. El nombre de tu ciudad, pueblo o comunidad 0 94946 0 94947 0 94948 0 94949 0 94950 0 94957 0 94960 0 94963 0 94964 0 94965 0 94966 0 94970 0 94971 0 94973 0 94974 0 94976 0 94977 0 94978 0 94979 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 557 1 ~<;>U·N· TY OF a ~ARIN ~ 8. \lVive dentro de las Hmites de la ciudad o pueblo especffico mencionado en la pregunta # 7? Q Sf Q No 9. lEs propietario, alquila o comparte una casa? 0 Poseer 0 Alquilar 0 Vivienda compartida 10. lTienes acceso a Internet en tu casa? 0 sr Q No Si tiene alguna pregunta sobre esta encuesta, envie un correo electronico a Mitigation@MarinCounty.org 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 558 l ~<;>U·N· TY OF ~ARIN a ~ 12. CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-2 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE This page is intentionally blank. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-3 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The City of San Rafael and Preparative Consulting would like to thank those collaborators and partners who participated in the planning and development of this document. The official Marin County Operational Area (OA) Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (MJHMP) Steering Committee provided the oversight and dedication to this project that was required and without their commitment; this project would not be possible. As with any working plan, this document represents planning strategies and guidance as understood as of the date of this plan’s release. This plan identifies natural hazards and risks and identifies the hazard mitigation strategy to reduce vulnerability and make the communities of the City of San Rafael more disaster resistant and sustainable. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-4 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE This page is intentionally blank. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-5 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE TABLE OF CONTENTS CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE .................................................................... 12-1 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................... 12-3 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ 12-5 Section 1.0: Introduction ................................................................................................. 12-7 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 12-7 1.2 Planning Process ................................................................................................... 12-7 1.2.1 Steering Committee Members (Jurisdictional Representatives) ....................... 12-8 1.2.2 Steering Committee Planning Process............................................................. 12-9 1.2.3 Coordination with stakeholders and agencies ................................................... 12-9 1.2.4 Public Engagement ........................................................................................ 12-16 1.3 Overview and History ........................................................................................... 12-24 1.4 Government ......................................................................................................... 12-28 1.5 Weather and Climate ........................................................................................... 12-28 1.6 Demographics ...................................................................................................... 12-29 1.7 Social Vulnerability and Risk ................................................................................ 12-33 1.8 Economy and Tax Base ....................................................................................... 12-50 1.9 Critical Facilities ................................................................................................... 12-51 1.10 Historical Properties ............................................................................................ 12-57 2.0: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment ......................................................... 12-60 2.1 Climate Change................................................................................................. 12-62 2.2 Hazards ............................................................................................................... 12-70 2.2.1 Debris Flows .................................................................................................. 12-71 2.2.2 Drought.......................................................................................................... 12-77 2.2.3 Earthquake .................................................................................................... 12-79 2.2.4 Flooding......................................................................................................... 12-85 2.2.5 Land Subsidence/Sinkholes........................................................................... 12-96 2.2.6 Levee Failure ................................................................................................. 12-99 2.2.7 Sea Level Rise ............................................................................................ 12-102 2.2.8 Severe Weather – Extreme Heat ................................................................. 12-108 2.2.9 Severe Weather – High Wind and Tornado ................................................. 12-110 2.2.10 Tsunami...................................................................................................... 12-113 2.2.11 Wildfire ...................................................................................................... 12-115 Section 3.0: Mitigation Strategy ................................................................................. 12-128 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-6 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 3.1 Changes in Development ................................................................................... 12-128 3.2 Capability Assessment ....................................................................................... 12-129 3.2.1 Regulatory Capabilities ................................................................................ 12-130 3.2.2 Administrative and Technical Capabilities .................................................... 12-136 3.2.3 Fiscal Capabilities ........................................................................................ 12-138 3.2.4 Community Outreach ................................................................................... 12-139 3.2.5 Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program ................................ 12-140 3.3 Mitigation Goals ................................................................................................. 12-143 3.4 Status of Previous Mitigation Actions ................................................................. 12-145 3.5 Hazard Mitigation Actions ................................................................................... 12-147 3.6 Progress in Local Mitigation Efforts .................................................................... 12-155 3.7 Plan Integration .................................................................................................. 12-155 3.8 Future Development Trends ............................................................................... 12-156 Section 4.0: Plan Review, Evaluation, and Implementation ...................................... 12-159 4.1 Plan Adoption ..................................................................................................... 12-159 4.2 Plan Monitoring .................................................................................................. 12-159 4.3 Plan Evaluation .................................................................................................. 12-160 4.4 Plan Update ....................................................................................................... 12-160 Figures and Tables ...................................................................................................... 12-162 Acronyms/Abbreviations ............................................................................................ 12-165 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-7 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE SECTION 1.0: INTRODUCTION 1.1 INTRODUCTION The City of San Rafael, Community Profile has been prepared in conjunction with the Marin County OA Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (MJHMP), establishing an inter- jurisdictional process for the development and implementation of effective hazard mitigation strategies in association with identified hazards that pose real or potential threats to the City of San Rafael. 1.2 PLANNING PROCESS The majority of the Marin County OA is unincorporated sparsely populated rural and protected lands. Most of the 262,000 county population is consolidated into the Eastern portion of the county. The Marin County OA MJHMP Steering Committee and broader Planning Team approached the development of the Marin County OA MJHMP and the associated jurisdictional and district profiles from a coordinated and collaborative planning and public engagement unity of effort. The Steering Committee felt a unified effort, led by the County OEM, would be the most effective approach for this planning process. This approach allowed the small jurisdictions and districts with limited staffing and resources to take advantage of the combined efforts of the County and other jurisdictions to reach a broader segment of each of their own populations and do so in a way to ensure greater equity and inclusion of the public in this planning process. Extensive and coordinated public outreach was done involving all participating jurisdictions and districts with an eye towards equity, inclusion, openness, accessibility, and ensuring they meet the population where they live, work, or recreate to provide the public convenience of access and ease of participation in this planning process. The Marin County OA is very different from most California Counties in that the populated portion of the County where the jurisdictions and district’s planning areas are located has the same climate, similar topography, and are exposed to many of the same hazards. Only three jurisdictions, Larkspur, Ross, and San Anselmo, are not coastal jurisdictions and are not impacted by Tsunami or Sea Level Rise. This unity of effort approach allowed the Steering Committee to establish a more robust Planning Team representing local, countywide, regional, state, and federal stakeholders servicing the Marin County OA planning area. These stakeholders were in a unique position to provide informed and specific information and recommendations on hazard mitigation goals and actions, as well as population needs and social vulnerability for each of the jurisdictional and district planning areas. This united effort allowed the planning team to attend fewer meetings than they would have been required to attend if they were required to attend separate meetings for each participating jurisdiction and district. The reduced number of meetings allowed the planning team the opportunity and time to provide more detailed and thoughtful contributions to the planning effort. In addition to providing representation on the coordinated Marin County OA Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Steering Committee, the City of San Rafael involved additional internal planning team to support the broader planning process. The City of San Rafael jurisdictional representatives for the coordinated Marin County OA Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plans Steering Committee and the Planning Team Members are represented below. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-8 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 1.2.1 STEERING COMMITTEE MEMBERS (JURISDICTIONAL REPRESENTATIVES) Primary Point of Contact Alternate Point of Contact Quinn Gardner, Deputy Director of Emergency Management Manny Albano, San Rafael Fire Community Disaster Preparedness Coordinator Telephone: 415-726-1960 Telephone: 415-256-5508 Email: Quinn.Gardner@cityofsanrafael.org Email: manny.albano@cityofsanrafael.org This annex was developed by the primary point of contact with assistance from the members of the local mitigation planning team listed in Table 1 and Table 2. Table 1: City of San Rafael Local Hazard Mitigation Planning Team Members Jurisdiction Name Title/ Department Phone Email San Rafael Quinn Gardner Deputy Director of Emergency Management 415-726-1960 Quinn.Gardner@cityofsanrafael.org San Rafael Cory Bytof Sustainability Program Manager 415-485-3407 Cory.bytof@cityofsanrafael.org San Rafael Joanna Kwok Senior Civil Engineer 415-485-3408 Joanna.Kwok@cityofsanrafael.org San Rafael April Miller Public Works Director 415-485-3355 April.Miller@cityofsanrafael.org San Rafael Kate Hagemann Climate Adaptation & Resilience Planner 415-256-5534 Kate.Hagemann@cityofsanrafael.org San Rafael Manny Albano San Rafael Fire Community Disaster Preparedness Coordinator 415-256-5508 manny.albano@cityofsanrafael.org Table 275: City of San Rafael Local Hazard Mitigation Planning Team Members This 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP is a comprehensive update of the 2018 Marin County OA MJHMP. The planning area and participating jurisdictions and organizations were defined to consist of the unincorporated County of Marin, five special districts, and the eleven incorporated jurisdictions to include the City of San Rafael. All participating jurisdictions are within the geographical boundary of the Marin County OA and have jurisdictional authority within this planning area. The Steering Committee led the planning process based on the contribution and input from the whole community stakeholders who identified the community’s concerns, values, and priorities. The Steering Committee met and reviewed the mitigation recommendations and strategies identified within this plan. Each participating local jurisdiction established a mechanism for the development and implementation of jurisdictional mitigation projects, as identified within this plan and associated locally specific supporting documents. As deemed necessary and appropriate, participating jurisdictions will organize local mitigation groups to facilitate and administer internal activities. The Steering Committee assisted with the planning process in the following ways: • Attending and participating in the Steering Committee meetings. • Identification of potential mitigation actions. • Updating the status of mitigation actions from the 2018 Marin County OA MJHMP. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-9 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE • Collecting and providing other requested data (as available). • Making decisions on plan process and content. • Reviewing and providing comments on plan drafts; including annexes. • Informing the public, local officials, and other interested stakeholders about the planning process and providing opportunity for them to be involved and provide comment. • Coordinating, and participating in the public input process. • Coordinating the formal adoption of the plan by the governing boards. 1.2.2 STEERING COMMITTEE PLANNING PROCESS The Steering Committee met monthly to develop the plan. Email notifications were sent out to each Steering Committee member to solicit their participation in the Steering Committee meetings. The meetings were conducted using a Zoom platform videoconferencing. Meeting attendees signed in using the chat feature to record their attendance. The Steering Committee agreed to make and pass plan-based general policy recommendations by a vote of a simple majority of those members present. The Steering Committee will also seek input on future hazard mitigation programs and strategies from the mitigation planning team by focusing on the following: • Identify new hazard mitigation strategies to be pursued on a state and regional basis, and review the progress and implementation of those programs already identified. • Review the progress of the Hazard Mitigation program and bring forth community input on new strategies. • Coordinate with and support the efforts of the Marin County OEM to promote and identify resources and grant money for implementation of recommended hazard mitigation Strategies within local jurisdictions and participating public agencies. During the planning process, the Steering Committee communicated through videoconferencing, face-to-face meetings, email, telephone conversations, and through the County website. The County website included information for all stakeholders on the MJHMP update process. Hannah Tarling of the Marin County Office of Emergency Management and Preparative Consulting established a Microsoft 365 SharePoint folder which allowed the Steering Committee members and Marin OEM and Preparative Consulting to share planning documents and provide a format for the planning partners to submit completed documents and access other planning related documents and forms. Draft documents were also posted on this platform and the Marin County OES website so that the Steering Committee members and the public could easily access and review them. 1.2.3 COORDINATION WITH STAKEHOLDERS AND AGENCIES Opportunities for involvement in the planning process must be provided to neighboring communities, local and regional agencies involved in hazard mitigation, agencies with authority to regulate development, businesses, academia, and other private and nonprofit interests (44 CFR, Section 201.6(b)(2)). Early in the planning process, the Marin County and City of San Rafael Steering Committee reached out to the following Local and Regional Agencies involved in hazard mitigation activities to invite them to participate in this planning process as a member of the Planning Team. These individuals work with Marin County and the City of San Rafael communities l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-10 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE and could provide subject matter expertise and relevant information to the planning process regarding the community history, hazard risk, vulnerability, and impact, mitigations efforts, community needs, demographics, and social vulnerability, economic concerns, ecology, and other community services and needs. The Marin County and City of San Rafael Steering also determined that data collection, risk assessment analyses, mitigation strategy development, and plan approval would be greatly enhanced by inviting other local, state and federal agencies and organizations to participate in the process. Based on their involvement in hazard mitigation planning, their landowner status in the County, the City of San Rafael and/or their interest as a neighboring jurisdiction, representatives from the following groups were invited to participate on the Planning Team: Eighty-five planning partners participated in this update, as listed in Table 2. Table 2: 2023 MJHMP Local Planning Team Members No. Agency Point of Contact Title 1 Belvedere Laurie Nilsen Emergency Svs, Coord. 2 Belvedere Rebecca Markwick Planning Director 3 Belvedere Samie Malakiman Associate Planner 4 Bolinas Com. PUD Jennifer Blackman General Manager 5 Bolinas Fire Protection Dist. Stephen Marcotte Asst. Fire Chief 6 Central Marin Fire District Matt Cobb Battalion Chief/Fire 7 Central Marin Fire District Ezra Colman Battalion Chief/Fire 8 Central Marin Fire District Rubin Martin Fire Chief 9 Corte Madera RJ Suokko Director of Public Works 10 Corte Madera Chris Good Senior Civil Engineer 11 Sanitary District No. 2 RJ Suokko DPW 12 Fairfax Loren Umbertis Public Works Director 13 Fairfax Mark Lockaby Building Official 14 Larkspur Dan Schwarz City Manager 15 Larkspur Julian Skinner Public Works Director/ City Engineer 16 Larkspur Robert Quinn Public Works Superintendent 17 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Dale McDonald Administrative Services Mgr. 18 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District Greg Pease Safety Manager 19 County of Marin Steven Torrence OEM Director 20 County of Marin Hannah Tarling Emergency Management Coordinator 21 County of Marin Chris Reilly OEM Project Manager 22 County of Marin Woody Baker- Cohn Senior Emergency Management Coordinator 23 County of Marin Leslie Lacko Community Development Agency 24 County of Marin Hannah Lee Senior Civil Engineer 25 County of Marin Felix Meneau Project Mgr./ FCWCD 26 County of Marin Julia Elkin Department of Public Works 27 County of Marin Beb Skye Department of Public Works 28 County of Marin Scott Alber Battalion Chief, Marin County Fire Dept. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-11 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 2: 2023 MJHMP Local Planning Team Members No. Agency Point of Contact Title 29 County of Marin Lisa Santora Deputy Public Health Officer, Marin Health & Human Services 30 County of Marin Koblick, Kathleen Marin Health & Human Services 31 County of Marin Amber Davis Public Health Preparedness 32 Mill Valley Patrick Kelly Department of Public Works 33 Mill Valley Ahmed A Aly Project Manager 34 Mill Valley Jared Barrilleaux Deputy Director of Engineering 35 Mill Valley Daisy Allen Senior Planner 36 Southern Marin Fire District Tom Welch Deputy Chief/South Marin Fire Dist. 37 Southern Marin Fire District Marshall Nau Fire Marshall/South Marin Fire Dist. 38 North Marin Water District Eric Miller Asst. General Manager 39 North Marin Water District Tim Fuette Senior Engineer 40 Novato David Dammuller Engineering Services Mgr. 41 Novato Dave Jeffries Consultant/JPSC 42 Ross Richard Simonitch Public Works Director 43 San Anselmo Sean Condry Public Works & Building Director 44 San Anselmo Erica Freeman Building Official 45 San Anselmo Scott Schneider Asst. PW Director 46 San Rafael Quinn Gardner Deputy Director of Emergency Management 47 San Rafael Cory Bytof Sustainability Program Manager 48 San Rafael Joanna Kwok Senior Civil Engineer 49 San Rafael Kate Hagemann Climate Adaptation & Resilience Planner 50 Sausalito Andrew Davidson Senior Engineer/ DPW 51 Sausalito Kevin McGowan Director of Public Works 52 Sausalito Brandon Phipps Planning Director 53 Tiburon Sam Bonifacio Assistant Planner 54 Tiburon Dina Tasini Director of Community Development 55 Tiburon Laurie Nilsen Emergency Svs, Coord. Special Districts & Partner Agencies 56 County of Marin Disability Access Program Laney Davidson Disability Access Manager/ ADA Coordinator 57 County of Marin Disability Access Program Peter Mendoza Disability Access Manager/ ADA Coordinator 58 Emergency Medical Services Chris Le Baudour EMS Authority 59 Fire Departments Jason Weber Fire Chiefs 60 Golden Gate Bridge, Highway & Transportation District Daniel Rodriguez Security, Emergency Management Specialist 61 Golden Gate Bridge, Highway & Transportation District Dennis Mulligan General Manager & CEO, 62 Marin City Climate Resilience and Health Justice Terrie Green Executive Director 63 Marin Center for Independent Living Peter Mendoza Director of Advocacy and Special Projects l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-12 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 2: 2023 MJHMP Local Planning Team Members No. Agency Point of Contact Title 64 Marin City Community Services District Juanita Edwards Interim General Manager 65 Marin County Community Development Agency Leslie Lacko Community Development Agency 66 Marin County Flood Control & Water Conservation District Garry Lion Advisory Board Member 67 Marin County Office of Education Michael Grant Director, Marin County Office of Education 68 Marin County Parks Max Korten General Manager and Director 69 PG&E Mark Van Gorder Government Affairs, North Bay 70 PG&E Ron Karlen PG&E Public Safety Specialist 71 Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) Jennifer McGill Chief of Police 72 Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM) Anne Richmond Executive Director 73 Willow Creek School Itoco Garcia Superintendent State Partners 74 Cal OES - ESC Sarah Finnigan Cal OES Emergency Services Coordinator 75 Cal OES, Division of Safety of Dams Danielle Jessup Coordinator/ Dam Safety Planning Division 76 California Department of Public Health Svetlana Smorodinsky Disaster Epidemiologist/ Environmental & Occupational Emergency Preparedness Team 77 California Department of Public Health Patrice Chamberlain Health Program Specialist II 78 California Department of Water Resources Julia Ekstrom, PhD Supervisor, Urban Unit Water Use Efficiency Branch 79 Caltrans Trang Hoang Senior Transportation Engr/ Office of Advance Planning 80 Caltrans Markus Lansdowne Caltrans D4 Emergency Coordinator Federal Partners 81 Army Corps of Engineers Jessica Ludy Flood Risk Management, Equity, and Environmental Justice 82 National Park Service Stephen Kasierski OneTam 83 US Coast Guard LT Tony Solares Sector SF Waterways Safety Branch 84 US Coast Guard MST1 Brandon M. Ward Emergency Management Specialist 85 US Coast Guard LT William K. Harris USCG SEC San Francisco Table 276: 2023 MJHMP Local Planning Team Members Several opportunities were provided for the groups listed above to participate in the City of San Rafael’s planning process. At the beginning of the planning process, invitations were extended to these groups to actively participate on the Planning Team. Participants from these groups assisted in the process by attending several videoconferencing meetings where hazard vulnerability and risk were discussed along with hazard mitigation strategies and actions. Planning Team members provided data and other applicable information directly as requested in meetings, emails, telephone calls, videoconferencing, worksheets, or through data contained l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-13 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE on their websites or as maintained by their offices. This information was used to develop hazard vulnerability and risk profiles along with mitigation actions. These key agencies, organizations, and advisory groups received meeting announcements, agendas, and minutes by e-mail throughout the plan update process. They supported the effort by attending meetings or providing feedback on issues. All the agencies were provided with an opportunity to comment on this plan update and were provided with a copy of the plan to review and offer edits and revisions. They were also provided access to the Marin County OEM hazard mitigation plan website to review all planning documents and hazard mapping tools. Each was sent an e-mail message informing them that draft portions of the plan were available for review. In addition, the complete draft plan was sent to the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) and FEMA Region IX for a pre-adoption review to ensure program compliance. In addition, through the public meetings conducted at the beginning of the planning process, members of the planning team, the public, and other key stakeholders were invited to participate in the planning process through public outreach activities. Further as part of the public outreach process, all planning areas engaged in public outreach and education by providing information on their website or though press releases directing the public to the main Marin County OEM website that provided coordinated and detailed public information of the planning process and how the public could participate. All planning areas were invited to attend the public meetings and to review and comment on the plan prior to submittal to Cal OES and FEMA. Additional public outreach action is detailed in the 1.2.4 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT section of this annex. The following planning meetings were held with the planning team: Table 3: City of San Rafael & Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings No. Date Attendees Meeting Planning Meeting Objectives 1 10/26/22 Steering Committee Project Overview Meeting • Plan Overview – Steps and Timeline • Planning Process • Steering Committee Role 2 11/9/22 Steering Committee Steering Committee Kickoff Meeting • Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview • Plan Overview – Steps and Timeline • Community Overview • Planning Process • Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment • Stakeholders and Planning Team Identification 3 12/6/22 Steering Committee, Planning Team Planning Team Kickoff Meeting • Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-14 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 3: City of San Rafael & Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings No. Date Attendees Meeting Planning Meeting Objectives • Plan Overview – Steps and Timeline • Community Overview • Planning Process • Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 4 02/07/23 Steering Committee Steering Committee Hazard Profile Meeting • Jurisdictional Letter of Commitment • Identify Planning Team Members • Hazard Risk Ranking Worksheets • Jurisdictional Profiles • Jurisdictional/ District Capability Assessment • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update 5 03/07/23 Steering Committee/ Planning Team Planning Team Public Outreach Strategy Meeting • Planning Goals and Objectives • Hazard Risk Ranking Worksheets • Jurisdictional Profiles • Jurisdictional/ District Capability Assessment • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update • Public Outreach Strategy 6 04/04/23 Steering Committee Steering Committee Meeting • HMGP (DR-4683) Funding Timeline • Public Outreach • Planning Goals and Objectives • Jurisdictional Hazard Vulnerability Maps • Jurisdictional Profiles • Jurisdictional/ District Capability Assessment • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update 7 04/13/23 General Public, Steering Committee, Planning Team Public Outreach Town Hall Meeting #1 (In-person and virtual on Zoom) Thursday, 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm Marin County BOS Chambers • Meeting translated live in Spanish with 29 language subtitle capability for virtual participants. • Meeting also interpreted in American Sign Language • Meeting recorded and posted on Hazard Mitigation website. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-15 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 3: City of San Rafael & Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings No. Date Attendees Meeting Planning Meeting Objectives • Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview • Planning Process • Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment • Planning Goals and Objectives • Hazard Mitigation Projects • Community Input 8 04/29/23 General Public, Steering Committee, Planning Team Public Outreach Town Hall Meeting #2 (In-person and virtual on Zoom) Saturday, 10:00 am to 11:30 am Marin County Health and Wellness Center • Meeting translated live in Spanish with 29 language subtitle capability for virtual participants. • Meeting also interpreted in American Sign Language • Meeting recorded and posted on Hazard Mitigation website. • Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Management Overview • Planning Process • Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment • Planning Goals and Objectives • Hazard Mitigation Projects • Community Input 9 05/31/23 Steering Committee Steering Committee Hazard Ranking Meeting • HMGP (DR-4683) Funding Timeline • Public Outreach Status • Jurisdictional Hazard Vulnerability Maps • OEM Overview of Hazard Maps and Marin Maps • Marin Co. MJHMP Risk Assessment Tool Overview • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update • Hazard Working Groups 10 06/27/23 Steering Committee, Planning Team Planning Team Meeting • HMGP (DR-4683) & BRIC Grant Funding Timeline • Public Outreach Status • Jurisdictional Hazard Risk Assessment Tool • OEM Overview of Hazard Maps and Marin Maps l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-16 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 3: City of San Rafael & Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings No. Date Attendees Meeting Planning Meeting Objectives • Marin County OA Hazards over the Last 5-Years • 2018 Hazard Mitigation Project Status Update • 2023 Hazard Mitigation Projects/Capital Improvement Projects • Hazard Working Groups 11 07/01/23- 09/01/23 Steering Committee Members Steering Committee Members Plan Development Sessions • Individual phone or conference calls with planning jurisdictions and districts to answer specific questions and assist them in developing their profile annex. 12 11/27/23 Steering Committee, Planning Team Planning Team Meeting • Presentation and review of the Draft Marin County OA MJHMP and Jurisdictional/District Annexes 13 11/28/23 General Public Public Outreach Presentation on Marin County Office of Emergency Management Website • Presentation and review of the Draft Marin County OA MJHMP and Jurisdictional/District Annexes. • Opportunity for public comment and questions and answers. Table 277: City of San Rafael & Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings 1.2.4 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT Early discussions with the Marin County OEM established the initial plan for public engagement to ensure a meaningful and inclusive public process with a focus on equity and accessible to the whole community. The Public Outreach efforts mirrored the Planning Team approach with a unified effort, led by the County OEM, involving all participating jurisdictions and districts. Public outreach for this plan update began at the beginning of the plan development process with a detailed press release informing the community of the purpose of the hazard mitigation planning process for the Marin County OA planning area and to invite the public to participate in the process. Public involvement activities for this plan update were conducted by the County and all participating jurisdictions and districts and included press releases; website postings; a community survey; stakeholder and public meetings; and the collection of public and stakeholder comments on the draft plan which was posted on the County website. Information provided to the public included an overview of the mitigation status and successes resulting from implementation of the 2018 plan as well as information on the processes, new risk assessment data, and proposed mitigation strategies for the plan update. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-17 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Equity and Whole Community Approach The Marin County OEM and the Steering Committee prioritized equity and engagement of the whole community in the development of the Marin County OA MJHMP by establishing a framework with key actions for each step of the planning process. Elements of the equity approach included: Engaging hard-to-reach populations This effort was to ensure the greatest equity and access to the public to enable participation in the process. The Marin County OEM outreach strategy is to “meet people where they are.” The Town Hall meetings were conducted at different familiar locations within the county where people could easily access them and were conducted on both a weekday and weekend, and in the evening and during the daytime. The meetings were offered in-person with a virtual broadcast using Zoom videoconferencing and streamed live on Marin County OEM Facebook account. After the meeting, Marin County OEM uploaded the recorded meeting to their website to allow the public on demand access to the meeting. Translation and Interpretation Services The survey and outreach materials were provided in both English and Spanish to improve accessibility among populations with limited English proficiency. The website uses Google Translate for accessibility in multiple languages. Interpretation services were offered for both town hall meetings. Each town hall meeting included live Spanish translation and subtitles, Live American Sign Language (ASL/CDI) interpretation, the ability for the Zoom videoconferencing attendee to activate subtitles in 29 different languages, and vision accessible PowerPoint slide. Three stakeholder and public meetings were held, two at the beginning of the plan development process and one prior to finalizing the updated plan. Where appropriate, stakeholder and public comments and recommendations were incorporated into the final plan, including the sections that address mitigation goals and strategies. Specifically, public comments were obtained during the plan development process and prior to plan finalization. All press releases and website postings are on file with the Marin County OEM. Public meetings were advertised in a variety of ways to maximize outreach efforts to both targeted groups and to the public at large. Advertisement mechanisms for these meetings and for involvement in the overall MJHMP development process include: • Development and publishing of an MJHMP public outreach article • Providing press releases to local newspapers and radio stations • Posting meeting announcements on the local County MJHMP website • Email to established email lists • Personal phone calls The public outreach activities were conducted with participation from and on behalf of all jurisdictions participating in this plan. The Steering Committee has made the commitment to periodically bring this plan before the public through public meetings and community posting so that citizens may make input as strategies and implementation actions change. Public meetings will continue to be held twice a year after the first and third MJHMP meetings. Public meetings will continue to be stand-alone meetings but may also follow a council meeting or other official government meeting. The l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-18 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE public will continue to be invited to public meetings via social media messaging, newspaper invitations, and through the website for each jurisdiction participating in the plan. Each jurisdiction is responsible for assuring that their citizenry is informed when deemed appropriate by the Steering Committee. WEBSITE At the beginning of the plan update process, Marin County OEM established a hazard mitigation website https://emergency.marincounty.org/pages/lhmp on behalf of all the planning areas to ensure consistent messaging and information, to keep the public posted on plan development milestones, and to solicit relevant input. The website also provided information on signing up for Alert Marin, provided detailed information about the hazard mitigation process and plan development, provided a URL and QR code link to the survey in both English and Spanish, and provided information about upcoming town hall meetings. (See Figure 1) The site’s address was publicized in all press releases, surveys and public town hall meetings. Each planning partner also established a link on their own agency website. Information on the plan development process, the Steering Committee, a link to the Hazard Mitigation survey, and drafts of the plan were made available to the public on the site for the public review period. The County of Marin intends to keep a website active after the plan’s completion to keep the public informed about successful mitigation projects and future plan updates. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-19 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 552: Marin County OEM MJHMP Website and San Rafael Public Outreach l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e ___ J MAR:'1N Emer gency: Portal Get Al erted St ay I nf o r med Wea the r Pr epare COV I D -19 Mo re -'!# C) Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Update ■ The va r ious communities and service providers within Marin County are working together to update our Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mit igation Plan. As part of this update process, we ar e asking for community Insig ht and In put. NATURAL HAZARDS Loca\lon [.>.tent 1.,.\a&nlludc/Strength) Pn!\'IOUS Occvrrcnces FutureProbabll,ty hltpi:.//ffMf9ffoCY.1NOncounty.rxg/r-Jft/alefu City of San Rafael Offi1ce of Em:e rgenc.y Se.rvioes IISI EOC San Rafael • Edited Just now RISK COMMUNITY ASSETS Bu,11 Et,\.'ltOOITlt!flt Nal.Ufa l Enwonment Econom, Ev e ry f ew y ears our commun· y u pdates th e Local H azar d M i tJi g ati o n Pla n (l!...HMP). T h i s y ear . o ur p lan h as b een d e v e l oped alo n g side oth e r County jurisdi ct i o ns. T h e pl a n p r esents proj ects focused o n r e duc iing t h e i m pacts o f n atu ra l h azards lilke, sea !le v e l rise \'tlii lldfi1re s. fl oods and m o r e . Community i s invited t o provide feedback. U se the int e racti,v e m a p o n Em ergency.M a rinGounty.org/pages/mi tJigati o n to see the pote ntial im pact o f n a tural h a zards in o ur area. Lo o l< through t h e prop osed p r o j e cts li,sted. D o th ese projects reflect community n eeds? L et u s llmow by fil lling o ut the s urvey. All tlh:e pla n s, a n int e ractive m a p , an d m o r e i s availa bl'e at https://e m erg ency.ma rincounty.org/pages/mitigatio n Cada cie rto t i e mpo se a ctJu a'liza e Plan Local de M i t igaci6n de Ri esgos (LHMP). El plan presenta proyectos c.en trados e n red uai r el i mpacto d e p e ligr os natural es com o ell aum e nto de'I n ivel d e l m,a r, las i ncen d i os f o r ,estales, l as inundacion es y m as. S e l e pide a l a comuni dad que d e s u o p ini6n. U tilice ,e'I m apa inte ractiv o e n Ernergency.Marin County.org/pages/mi t igati on p a ra ver e'I impacto pot e m:iial d e l a s pelli gros natur al es e n su are a . Re vise Pa l i sta d e p r o y ectos propue stos. i Reflej a n e.stos p r o y ectos las n ecesidades de s u v ecindario? Daje n os sab er lle n ando I a e n c u est a . Se l e p i d e a l a comuni dad q u e cfe su opinion Em e rge n cy.Mari n County.o rg/pa ges/m it i gation 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-20 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE PUBLIC MEETINGS Two separate Marin County OA MJHMP Public Town Hall Meeting were conducted at different locations within the County, on different days of the week and during different times of the day. This effort was to ensure the greatest equity and access by the public to enable participation in the process. The Marin County OEM outreach strategy is to “meet people where they are.” Each Town Hall Meeting included, live Spanish translation and subtitles, Live American Sign Language (ASL/CDI) interpretation, the ability for the Zoom videoconferencing attendee to activate subtitles in to 28 different languages, and vision accessible PowerPoint slide. The first Town Hall Meeting was conducted on Thursday, April 13, 2023, from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm, at the Marin County Board of Supervisors Chambers, Marin County Civic Center, 3501 Civic Center Drive, Room #330 San Rafael, CA 94903. The in-person meeting was also broadcast virtually using Zoom videoconferencing and streamed live on Marin County OEM Facebook account. Each of the jurisdictions participating in the MJHMP released a Press Release on their respective websites announcing the Public Town Hall Meeting and providing the date, time, and URL link to the Zoom Meeting for the public to log in and attend the Zoom Meeting. Marin County OEM also posted a notice for the Public Town Hall Meeting on their Facebook account. At the conclusion of the presentation, a question and answer session was held to answer questions from the attendees. The second Town Hall Meeting was conducted on Saturday, April 29, 2023, from 10:00 am to 11:30 am, at the Marin County Health and Wellness Center, 3240 Kerner Ave. Rooms #109 and #110 San Rafael, CA. 94903. The meeting followed the same format as the first and hosted the same access level of equity and accessibility. The Marin County OA MJHMP Public Town Hall Meeting was recorded and downloaded from Zoom and made available to all of the jurisdictions and districts to place on their websites and local Access TV for the public to view. Meeting participants were also invited to complete the Hazard Mitigation Survey and were provide the URL link to the Survey Monkey website to complete the survey. Figure 553: Marin County OEM MJHMP Public Town Hall Meeting l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-21 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE SOCIAL MEDIA The Marin County OA utilized several forms of social media to reach residents and customers. Information about the Hazard Mitigation Planning process was communicated to the public via Facebook, Twitter, and local access TV. Residents and customers were invited to complete the Hazard Mitigation Plan survey which was accessible via an attached URL or QR Code and provide feedback on potential hazard mitigation projects or programs. The results of the survey were provided to each of the planning partners and used to support the jurisdictional annex process. Each planning partner was able to use the survey results to help identify actions as follows: • Gauge the public’s perception of risk and identify what citizens are concerned about. • Identify the best ways to communicate with the public. • Determine the level of public support for different mitigation strategies. • Understand the public’s willingness to invest in hazard mitigation. PRESS RELEASES Press releases were distributed over the course of the plan’s development as key milestones were achieved and prior to each Marin County OA MJHMP Public Town Hall Meeting. All press releases were made available to the community in both English and Spanish. Figure 554: Hazard Mitigation Plan Public Outreach Press Release l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN ___ _j MARIN Marin County MutU.Jurisdictionlll Haza,-d Mitigation Pian Public Outreach Suf'l'ey Dear Marin County Comroonity Member, The various oorrmunltles 'Wilhln Marin County are WOlklng logdller 10 update Mar1n eounrys Mutti,.Jm$dlctlonal Hazard Mitlg.WOO Plan. As pal'I Of this ocwtvm,mlty plannlng r:>fQCe$S,, we iire ~king tor c:onvnunlty lnp.rt to ensure that tne p,opo,eo n>tlilotlon """°"' and vul"""b<Hl/eo ore~ v.ttn tile community's exbllng peroeptjons and ex~tlons. What Is Hazard Mitlgallon? Hazard MtigaUon ts lhe ertort to re<b:e the loss of life ono damage to poperty 3nd tile env1<onmen1 by ie.senrng tile Impact or natUflll hal.ards on 1M ct.1nvmmlty. By undttsl.andlng what natural hazards ~ lace In Mar1n COunry. and bow U'IOSe halard$ may impact oor communltle$. either by Injuring people, ~ or ...UQj!ng p,openy, c,, lmpac,lng tile en,!-: we ,er~ this document 10 seek w.1)'$ co proted people , p,opetty. and the enYlronment trQm the: Im~ of these ~ A3 prefects or programs to reduce or mitigate the mpaa of lhese natural hazards on the cornnullty, To be ellglble for l.Oeal Hazard MitlgatJon Project funding we mUSI 11rs1 ~ how ~ natural halards impact us and tntn e;i;plore how we can prottd agalns.t them. we lee/ It IS 1~1'11 to engage 1M whale c:ommunily lntnt!;tfb'l You ate aSl<ed to answer a few Simple quesclons abotJt yoo, leYet Of concem for natural hazards In )O.lt com~ and any preparedness actions you have taken or may be la~ to p,epare aor a na1ur.u disas~. The Coonty wtll ~ address new ljlCl(I emerging threats-wil!hln thl$ dO(JJrrlenl suct, as Climate Change and poet air qualify: hOwever, lhe pnrnary natural haZatdS being as:5e$sed are! OamFalue Oec,ls Flow, Erosion, t.ondS!loe, ~-Fire Oebrls Flow °'°'-9>' Eanhquake F"""'">g Land Subsidence (Slnkll<>e) Leitee !="•e Se-.aLt\'elRiSe Severe 1Neathet-Extfeme Heat severe Weatnef -Wlncl , Halt. Ughtnjng WIidfire Tsooaml VlSU ,,,. 1,1.aaa County H,yrg MfrjgatJoa WtW!t' bUm-;llmwfl!eocv marincoumv orr/eamc'JhMQ • ~~~1 ~', !""'.\NOtntM,IJIIN ~\lfAlllDISfllCT ~ r.~~ We have provided a Wl!bslle address (URL) for you to enter i n ,. ... Take !he Su"'l"(I [!Ill~.--, 1 . -, '[!I·•'.. a searct1 bar or a QR oooe klryou to seantoac:oess anonllneSI.We)', http!l;Jfwww.SU'feymonke)' oorr{rlMamaultyt\Jljt.,1P Atttnd, Town Hall MHtlpqt You are il'Mled 10 attend one Of two fflfftlngs being held I~ __ _j MARIN Marin County Muttl.Jurisdlctlonal Hazard Mitigation Plan Pubtic Outreach SUNey Wllh a vldecxonference and a Facebook live feed klr you to partidpa1e remotely. we Viii ~ an oveMeW Qt the Hazard Mldgalbn Planning p,ocess ano e,q,laln 110w ycu can help. You may aa:eos tile meeting remotely by ak:l<lng tile loom link belOw: I . Thu ..... y, April 13, i,rn, 6:00 pm t o 7:30 pm Mar1n County Boltd or Suptrvtsors Chamber$ Marin Comly Civic. Center 3501 CMc center Drive, Room #330 San Rar..ei , CA 94903 ~--!!!,!:!9!!!!! Meeting I[): 888 2383 1897 Pos,oooe: Ot 5749 2. Saturday, Aprlr 29 , 2023, 10:00am to 11:30 am Mar1n county Htalth Ind WtllntH Ctnle, 3240 Kerner A.ve . Rooms #109 and 111110 S... Ra fael, CA. 94903 BSJ:!OM<fnl!!; ~usrew.t>.zoom u"11818243§()04()?JM<l=MWNkOOIYCOIISGIMll<D60GRM !l!'!!l!!lQ!l!! Mee ng 10: 8 18 24J6 0040 Passcode: 432999 Tnank ycu fc,, raioog tile tfme to-• ttob lmpo,tant """"Y· Eodl comroonlly membef"s fttdbaek IS crttieal II) lhe Cota'lty's ~b't. to devdOp a ~based plilfl lO effe<:<lvety p,ole<:I tile oomir<Jnllles ol Marln. Sh:erel)', Steven Torrence Director Of emergency Management Offlce o f E-ncy •---ment ,~~~ = .. 0 8CPUO ~-::,,,, 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-22 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE SURVEY A hazard mitigation plan survey (see Figure 4) was developed by the Steering Committee and made available to the public in both English and Spanish. The survey was used to gauge household preparedness for natural hazards and the level of knowledge of tools and techniques that assist in reducing risk and loss from natural hazards. This survey was designed to help identify areas vulnerable to one or more natural hazards. The answers to its ten questions helped guide the Steering Committee in defining our hazards, and selecting goals, objectives, and mitigation strategies. The survey was available on the hazard mitigation plan website, advertised in press releases, and at town hall meetings. Finally, the survey and the process of public input was advertised throughout the course of the planning process. The survey was available to the public on March 13, 2023, and closed on June 12, 2023. At the conclusion of the planning process 293 surveys were completed by the public. Public Comments Considered by the Planning Team The Planning Team used the following information gathered from the Public Outreach Survey to inform decisions regarding hazard mitigation strategies, actions, and priorities. • Climate Change, Wildfire, and Drought were the top hazards of concern for the public. • Text messages, mail, and the County website were the preferred methods for receiving hazard mitigation information. • 48% of respondents expressed that they were “Very Much” concerned and 31% were “Moderately” concerned that a natural disaster could impact their home or place of residence. • 85% of respondents own their own home. • 99% of respondents have access to the internet. Public Outreach Survey h�ps://www.surveymonkey.com/r/MarincountyMJHMP l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e - Marin County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-23 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 555: Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey PUBLIC COMMENT ON THE PLAN To solicit public feedback on the draft plan, Marin OEM engaged in a multi-faceted approach intended to reach as many Marin residents as possible, including members of the community who are under-served and under-represented. All members of the community had the opportunity to provide initial comments on the plan during a two-week period from Wednesday, December 4, 2023, to Wednesday, December 18, 2023. Although the initial comment period was listed as two weeks, the public could submit comments indefinitely via the County’s website to support the County’s continuous improvement efforts. The base plan, as well as city, town and special district annexes, were available for download on emergency.marincounty.org (include photos). The website additionally asked for feedback in a survey in English and Spanish (include photos), the survey was designed to establish where that person lives or works, their top hazards of concern, elicit feedback on the plan and offer a place for them to share projects to reduce risk in their community. The survey collected responses from the community in English and in Spanish. The website and survey were shared through traditional and social media (photos) The Marin Independent Journal (Marin IJ) used the press release to write an article (hopefully; include photos). Social media accounts were updated four times with an initial ask, two reminders, and a closing announcement. The Marin OEM Public Information Officer coordinated with the Marin County Public Information Officers (MAPIO) working group to distribute information to partner jurisdictions (city, town, and special districts) to share this information on their social media sites and with the communities in the area. To reach those who may not be engaged digitally, the planning team worked with Marin County Community Response Teams, (CRTs are a collaboration of non-profit organizations supporting underrepresented communities in four zones) to conduct outreach with half-sheet flyers in English and Spanish to share in the 4 CRT zones (southern Marin, north Marin, west Marin, San Rafael). These half sheets were also shared county-wide at libraries, including in areas not covered by CRTs, like at the Fairfax library. CRTs are designed to reach Marin’s l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ ~ARIN ~ -Public Outreach Survey Encuesta del Plan Local de Mitigaci6n de Riesgos Multi- Jurfsdtcclonal del Condado de Marin en Espaftol https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/MarinCountyMJHMPEspanol 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-24 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE traditionally underserved and underrepresented communities, so by conducting outreach through this method, we were able to inform residents who may not have been engaged otherwise, including residents in Marin City, West Marin, and the Canal District of San Rafael. After December 18, 2023, the various participating jurisdiction and district profiles remained on the Marin County OEM website for public comments. The City of San Rafael had an additional 14-day comment period for the City of San Rafael Community Profile where their profile was posted on the City website for final public comment from January 29 – February 12, 2024. The 14-day public comment period gave the public an opportunity to comment on the draft plan update prior to the plan’s submittal to Cal OES. Comments received on the draft plan are available upon request. All comments were reviewed by the planning team and incorporated into the draft plan as appropriate. Public Comments Considered by the Planning Team The Marin County OEM posted the draft Hazard Mitigation Plan and hazard mitigation actions on their website and solicited public comments on the content. The City of San Rafael distributed press releases directing the community to the Marin County OEM website to review the draft plans. The Planning Team gathered public comments and information on the Marin County OEM website regarding proposed and current Hazard Mitigation Actions. The Planning Team used the comments and suggestions to inform decisions rega rding hazard mitigation strategies, actions, and priorities. Most comments included ideas for hazard mitigation projects and comments on the effectiveness of current mitigation projects. These comments were used to revise the proposed hazard mitigation actions which resulted in the final list of hazard mitigation actions listed in 3.5 Hazard Mitigation Actions 1.3 OVERVIEW AND HISTORY The area that is now the City of San Rafael was once the site of several Coast Miwok villages, including the village of Nanaguani along San Rafael Creek, inhabited by the Aguasto tribe. In 1817, Mission San Rafael Arcangel was founded as the 20th of 21 Spanish missions in the Spanish colonial province of Alta California. Originally planned as an asistencia (hospital) for Native Americans who became ill at Mission Dolores in present day San Francisco, Mission San Rafael Arcangel gained full mission status in 1822. Following the secularization of Spanish missions in 1833, the mission was placed under the control of administrators. In 1837, Timothy Murphy was appointed as administrator, and by 1844, was granted three contiguous parcels that shaped the future boundaries of San Rafael as Murphy’s land was eventually devised and portioned into smaller tracts. San Rafael incorporated as a city in 1874. San Rafael grew gradually after California statehood in 1850 and was named county seat in 1851. Following the completion of the Transcontinental Railroad in 1869, the construction of the County Courthouse in 1872, and incorporation in 1874, San Rafael entered a period of accelerated growth. Over the ensuing decades leading into the turn of the twentieth century, the nascent town built out as freight, passenger, and streetcar extensions were completed4. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-25 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE The opening of the Golden Gate Bridge in 1937, and the increasing popularity of the automobile, increased connectivity between Marin County and San Francisco, effectively ending the rail transit era as the Great Depression neared its end and World War II dawned. Following the war, housing starts increased, and the Terra Linda and Marinwood neighborhoods were developed on former ranch lands in 1953 and 1955, respectively. In the years immediately after the war, Fourth Street emerged as the main shopping area for Marin County. San Rafael’s downtown continued to prosper, as department stores, restaurants, the County Courthouse, and City Hall combined with churches, nearby residences, and emerging postwar industries to define the modern city. Over the mid-twentieth century, San Rafael’s downtown continues to be centered on its Fourth Street commercial corridors, which displays a great variety of period architecture, embodied in its stores, shops, and restaurants. In 2017, Downtown San Rafael was designated as a California Cultural District. The City of San Rafael is the county seat of Marin County located on the traditional lands of the Coast Miwok people. The City has a total area of 22.422 square miles. City of San Rafael Land Acknowledgment A Land Acknowledgment is a formal statement that recognizes the history and legacy of colonialism that impacted Indigenous Peoples, their traditional territories, and practices. It is a simple, powerful way of showing respect and a step toward correcting past practices and honoring truth. This land acknowledgement is provided by the Federated Indians of the Graton Rancheria. Outside of the acknowledgement, the partnership and work continues with the tribe to take actions that are most important to them. We acknowledge that the present day City of San Rafael is traditionally home to the Coast Miwok people many of whom today are tribal citizens of the Federated Indians of Graton Rancheria. We thank the original care takers of this land and honor their continuing involvement in stewardship practices that benefit us all. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 12 -26 CIT Y OF SAN RAF A E L COM M U N I T Y PRO F I L E Fi g u r e 55 6 : M a p o f C i t y o f S a n R a f a e l i n M a r i n C o u n t y So u r c e : M a r i n C o u n t y O E M J.t·t,1s.h,,_'tf- lnverne'5s Po int Reyes Na~iom~l Sens.ho re ;----, / ..... ,, ' ' I ', /' \., ,, " ..,...-......... 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E~. ~PS , USDA C ITY Oi' MILL VALL EY TO\O,'N Or CORTE MADER A -TOWN OF TI B UR ON ~ )> ~ ;;c --< --< z~ • 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 12 -27 CIT Y OF SAN RAF A E L COM M U N I T Y PRO F I L E Fi g u r e 55 7 : M a p o f t h e C i t y o f S a n R a f a e l So u r c e : M a r i n C o u n t y O E M ., .. :' ··-··-••-...•;t ............. .,,..~••-...•; ·, .. \, ·, .... , .. , ··,. .\~.. ·"·· r -.,. '\. 'l , .... / .:-.. \ .... J ... ""·. • ....... I -, • ... ,~.._.... \ \ L ema A'ita .... , .. ,· : .... _..................... '---~ •• , I ~· -~ r·--.. ■ ....... ■ i •~ .. I .\ •-: f .... ,··-■! I .. , ··, ..,::··; ) ,· Ch 1na Camp ,..-~ •. -.\ ... ··,.. .t·•-"-y•-.. -·•~ .. -: \ •. \ ,::,,• l r \ ~---· '\ ~-~ ' ,....... : :-... "'" . ... ... ~--- ··, .. q·, ... State P arJ .. ·• ......... \. ._•""'•• ...... .iT•··:;..................... ,~•""• '•· ........... ·•"-_ i .,...\,.. ~ ' ', ,.., , .... ' ..... / .... ' ... ~ 1 1.,... .,.,. • .... • • ..... ~ • '· ')l. i ·,..,l '"~•. '· ·, .... ..,.t"' • 'i -. ~lftm \ 1-,• .. '{..,;..,~, : .. ,. "· ·.... \., ·,.. : :, ! ).. • ;, Cascade i I \ .,I ; • -·· , ~ , .... ' +. ... 1 ..... -t ....... Canyon \ / .'·'1 "· ···,._ ...... ,,...... I ~ ;/~ ... ... ...... , \ ;/ ... , ·-.. -= .... ,. .. -.. ~-··-··_,J. r _ .. ~ ; .. ·• ',:,. ', S;in An,,e rr-o 1 .,. i • I San Rafael .tT t~.,~~--: ,:;_ I ,·· ',:j • I ·~ ....... . ; 4.~.,..-.·· .' ;"'-..,_.':1-t-:, ..... ,t•--· ... ' : .......... • ...... / ~\. .,.:.lf;f ·"'·t.. .. ;~ h a"", Is ands . .. _.. .. ) ~ , ... ,_. ; r...,..J )-..... r· ... • .... , ·-··-··-··-··-··-··-··-··-··-I ,•, : i .:• '\. I ! --~ ........ ..,....,,........... +"\, ·-.. -: .. ,• ·,o~. "- '• ,~w.iR --.. " .......... ..,, ~ I • ,...... ...,~ ..... ,• ·, .. -... l' ,.. •·• ., ·". ·--........... _,E-■,i...... ~' / ♦, ,., ;' ;_,.;, { I ..... \.,.,\. I '- -::_.'I •.,._I '·..>-··•. (-.. _ ;,~ .. ·-♦ •.•... ) -G,' •-·.,. ~"~: ,,. .. ·--..... ... \ \,/,.~~ ......... .,. i" ....... __ :;;-.,.... ......... ___ ~~ . ,-, i .f ... / \ \ / / < \ \ < \ I / / / ·; \ \ ,-·•,: 1\-·;:::::!""~:· ·-• San Oueffnrr r,-f' :. ·,. r • 1 F •• i !./ '• .... \ • ~ •• ~-. -.. -.. -.. -.. -.. -·\ ~_,_-_....___ \ , .. .,. ....... -~ ............ ~ .,. .... ~ • ..._, ___ ·-··t I : / ' ,/ / / 1/4/20 24, 12 :15 :14 PM [""_:-.::] County Boundary Legal Marin Mas M,mn Cities I Towns (sh,nling) -C l O F LA R KSPUR D INN OF FA IRFA X OW N OF R OS S ffi 1:8 7,87 9 \e,J o 0 .5 1 2m i 0 0.75 1.5 3 k m / / / [~~i Marin Ci~es I Towns (outline) CITY OF SAN RA FA EL -TOWN OF SAN A N SE LMO Cti.Jn:.,. or \◄a"1n. ca;·omla St:;..:: Parll:S, Es.;, Tnm'Tom. Garmin, SdeG:".aph. Ge:::Ted"lr,:il:::9ie5,, n:::, METli~AS.i\ l/SGS, Suire.au or Land W-.iU'la~e!l"'em OW N OF CORT E MAD ERA ~ )> ~ ;;:,c --< --< z ~ • 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-28 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 1.4 GOVERNMENT The City of San Rafael is governed by a five-person City Council, four councilmembers are elected by their districts and the mayor is elected at large. The city council elects a vice mayor each year from its membership. The Mayor is the executive head of the City; and appoints a City Manager, the administrative head of the City. The city consists of 20 departments: the City Attorney, City Clerk, City Council, City Manager’s Office, Community Development (including homelessness and housing), Digital Service & Open Government, Economic Development, Finance, Fire Department, Human Resources, Library & Recreation, Parking Services, Police Department (including the Specialized Assistance for Everyone (SAFE)) , Public Works,),, the Sanitation District, and Sustainability and Volunteer Program. The City Council assumes responsibility for the adoption of this plan; and the City Manager will oversee its implementation. The San Rafael Fire Department delivers exceptional public service from six neighborhood fire stations and provides Chief services to the Marinwood Fire Department. On December 5, 1874, the San Rafael Fire Department was organized as a volunteer company for the purpose of providing fire protection for the newly incorporated City of San Rafael. Today, the San Rafael Fire Department is an organization with over 90 professionals trained in specialties including emergency medical care, firefighting, hazardous materials and emergency preparedness. The San Rafael Police Department is a full time police department. In 1935 San Rafael Police Officers started wearing its own badges that said San Rafael Police. Prior to that year, they wore sheriff’s badges. There are approximately 63 sworn police officers that work for the department. 1.5 WEATHER AND CLIMATE The City of San Rafael lies 12 feet above sea level. In San Rafael, the summers are long, comfortable, arid, and mostly clear and the winters are short, cold, wet, and partly cloudy. Over the course of the year, the temperature typically varies from 43.1°F to 73.7°F and is rarely below 49°F or above 63°F. The difference in precipitation between the driest month and the wettest month is 5 inches. The annual rainfall is 8 inches. The month of highest relative humidity is February (79%). The month with the lowest relative humidity is June (66%). The month which sees the most rainfall is January. The driest month of the year is July. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-29 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 558: The City of San Rafael Precipitation and Monthly Temperatures Source: En.Climate-Data.org 1.6 DEMOGRAPHICS The California Department of Finance shows an overall estimated decrease in the population of the Marin County OA and the City of San Rafael since the last plan update in 2018. Of the total estimated 257,135 residents of the Marin County OA in 2022 based on the 2020 U.S. Census Survey, 190,148 residents live in the incorporated county and 66,987 residents live in the unincorporated county. The City of San Rafael had an estimated population of 59,851 in the 2018 plan. 2020 U.S. Census Survey estimated the City’s population at 61,271. However, revised estimates for 2022 estimate the population to decrease to 60,560 population. Table 4: City of San Rafael Estimated Jurisdictional Population Jurisdiction Population 2022 (Estimate) Population 2020 Population 2018 (Estimate) Percent Change 2018-2022 Marin County OA 257,135 262,321 262,179 -1.92% City of San Rafael 60,560 61,271 59,851 1.17% Table 278: City of San Rafael Estimated Jurisdictional Population Source: California Department of Finance According to the U.S. Census, the population of The City of San Rafael is 61,271 as of 2020. Table 5 shows the population growth comparison of the State of California, County of Marin and the City of San Rafael between 2010 – 2020. Table 5: Population Change of The City of San Rafael Jurisdiction Total Population Change, 2010-2020 April 1, 2010 April 1, 2020 Number Percent California 37,253,956 39,538,223 2,284,267 6.1% Marin County OA 252,409 262,321 9,912 3.9% City of San Rafael 59,851 61,271 1,420 1.17% Table 279: Population Change of The City of San Rafael Source: City of San Rafael Housing Element, US Census Bureau, California Department of Finance January February March April May June July August September October November December Avg. Temperature °C (°F) 9.3 °C (48.7) °F 10 °C (50) °F 11.2 °C (52.2) °F 12.2 °C (54) °F 14.2 °C (57.5) °F 16.3 °C (61.3) °F 16.6 °C (61.8) °F 16.9 °C (62.4) °F 17 °C (62.6) °F 15.4 °C (59.7) °F 12.1 °C (53.8) °F 9.5 °C (49.1) °F Min. Temperature °C (°F) 6.1 °C (43.1) °F 6.8 °C (44.3) °F 7.8 °C (46.1) °F 8.6 °C (47.6) °F 10.3 °C (50.5) °F 11.8 °C (53.3) °F 12.4 °C (54.4) °F 13 °C (55.3) °F 12.8 °C (55) °F 11.6 °C (52.8) °F 8.8 °C (47.9) °F 6.6 °C (43.9) °F Max. Temperature °C (°F) 13.6 °C (56.5) °F 14.4 °C (57.9) °F 15.8 °C (60.5) °F 17.2 °C (62.9) °F 19.4 °C (67) °F 22.2 °C (72) °F 22.5 °C (72.6) °F 22.8 °C (73) °F 23.2 °C (73.7) °F 21 °C (69.8) °F 16.7 °C (62.1) °F 13.5 °C (56.2) °F Precipitation / Rainfall mm (in) 118 (4) 124 (4) 88 (3) 41 (1) 22 (0) 5 (0) 1 (0) 2 (0) 2 (0) 25 (0) 58 (2) 114 (4) Humidity(%) 78% 79% 77% 70% 69% 66% 72% 73% 70% 69% 75% 77% Rainy days (d) 8 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 2 5 7 avg. Sun hours (hours) 5.7 6.4 7.8 9.4 10.0 10.6 9.3 8.5 8.7 7.8 6.7 5.6 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~---~ ~ARIN ~ I I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-30 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 6 lists the various languages spoken in the City of San Rafael. Table 6: Languages Spoken in San Rafael Primary Language Spoken % of Population English only 64.7% Spanish 25.0% Other Indo-European languages 5.2% Asian and Pacific Islander languages 3.7% Other languages 1.3% Table 280: Languages Spoken in San Rafael Source: US Census Bureau (2020) Figure 559: Races in San Rafael Source: City-Data.com l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ ~ARIN ~ ----------- Races in San Rafa e l, CA (2021) Wh ite (54.8%) Asi an (6.7%) Bl a c k (1.7%) Na ti ve Hawaiian (0.6 %) Hispanic (31 .9%) 2+ races (3.5%) Other (1 .3%) American I nd ian (0.2%) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-31 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 7: Marin County OA Jurisdictional Housing Stock 2022 and 2018 Year Total Units Single Family Multi-Family Mobile Homes Detached Attached 2 to 4 5 plus California 2022 Number 14,583,998 8,341,577 1,010,851 1,168,669 3,500,674 562,223 Percent 100.0% 57.2% 6.9% 8.0% 24.0% 3.9% 2018 Number 14,157,502 8,160,864 985,926 1,129,761 3,318,946 562,005 Percent 100.0% 57.6% 7.0% 8.0% 23.4% 4.0% Marin County OA 2022 Number 111,879 68,004 11,314 8,524 22,013 1,984 Percent 100.0% 60.8% 10.1% 7.6% 19.7% 1.8% 2018 Number 112,294 68,697 11,318 8,307 21,986 1,986 Percent 100.0% 61.2% 10.1% 7.4% 19.6% 1.8% City of San Rafael 2022 Number 21,337 12,465 3,395 1,362 3,572 543 Percent 100.00% 58.42% 27.24% 40.12% 262.26% 15.20% 2018 Number 21,448 12,581 3,427 1,335 3,557 548 Percent 100.00% 58.66% 27.24% 38.96% 266.44% 15.41% Table 281: Marin County OA Jurisdictional Housing Stock Source: California Department of Finance l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 20 2 3 M a r i n C o u n t y O p e r a t i o n a l A r e a Mu l t i -Ju r i s d i c t i o n a l H a z a r d M i t i g a t i o n P l a n 12 -32 CIT Y OF SAN RAF A E L COM M U N I T Y PRO F I L E Fi g u r e 56 0 : C i t y o f S a n R a f a e l L a n d U s e M a p So u r c e : C i t y o f S a n R a f a e l G e n e r a l P l a n 2 0 4 0 ( A u g . 2 0 2 1 ) I \ \ \ \ '. ~:: ! Planning Area D citylimil \ -Sea Level Rise Overlay Area 0.1 Sa~AtSelr M,1ei; 'Cf) ----------------------------------- I 2040 General Plan Land Use Designations Hillside Resource Residential Hillside Residential Very Low Densi ty Residential Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential _ Downtown Mixed Use -Community Commercial Mixed Use -Neighborhood Commercial Mixed Use -Office Mixed Use -Public/Quasi-Public -Marine Related Mixed Use -General Industrial -Light Industrial/Office -Mineral Resources -Parks, Recreation, and Open Space -Conservation -Airport/Recreation Water ,~------------------i I I '"' I I I I ~ )> ~ ;;:,c -< --< z~ • 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-33 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 1.7 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RISK The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) has initiated the “Prepare California” grant program focused on building community resilience amongst vulnerable individuals living in the areas of the state most susceptible to natural disasters. The Prepare California Initiative is aimed at reducing long-term risks from natural disasters by investing in local capacity building and mitigation projects designed to protect communities. Prepare California leverages funds approved in Governor Gavin Newsom’s 2021-22 State Budget and is designed to unlock federal matching funds for community mitigation projects that vulnerable communities would otherwise be unable to access. This program is intended for communities that are the most socially vulnerable and at the highest risk for future natural hazard events. The state identified communities by prioritizing California census tracts according to their estimated hazard exposures and social vulnerability. The National Risk Index is a dataset and online tool to help illustrate the United States communities most at risk for 18 natural hazards: Avalanche, Coastal Flooding, Cold Wave, Drought, Earthquake, Hail, Heat Wave, Hurricane, Ice Storm, Landslide, Lightning, Riverine Flooding, Strong Wind, Tornado, Tsunami, Volcanic Activity, Wildfire, and Winter Weather. For purposes of this plan the following National Risk Index (NRI) hazards are profiled in support of eight of the twelve Marin County OA MJHMP Hazards. NRI data was not available for Dam Failure, Land Subsidence, Levee Failure, or Sea Level Rise. Table 8: NRI Hazards and Marin County OA MJHMP Hazards NRI Hazards Marin County OA MJHMP Hazards Earthquake Earthquake Riverine Flooding Flooding Coastal Flooding Flooding Wildfire Wildfire Landslide Debris Flow Drought Drought Heat Wave Severe Weather -Extreme Heat Tsunami Tsunami Strong Wind Severe Weather – Wind, Hail, Lightning Table 282: NRI Hazards and Marin County OA MJHMP Hazards Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 The National Risk Index leverages available source data for Expected Annual Loss due to these 18 hazard types, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience to develop a baseline relative risk measurement for each United States county and Census tract. These measurements are calculated using average past conditions, but they cannot be used to predict future outcomes for a community. The National Risk Index is intended to fill gaps in available data and analyses to l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-34 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE better inform federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial decision makers as they develop risk reduction strategies. Calculating the Risk Index Risk Index scores are calculated using an equation that combines scores for Expected Annual Loss due to natural hazards, Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience: Risk Index = Expected Annual Loss × Social Vulnerability ÷ Community Resilience Hazard Type Risk Index Hazard type Risk Index scores are calculated using data for only a single hazard type, and reflect a community's Expected Annual Loss value, community risk factors, and the adjustment factor used to calculate the risk value. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-35 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE The following Tables 9 - 22 illustrate the NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for the San Rafael Census Tracts. Table 9: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1060.01 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $2,896,142 Very High Very High 1.4 $4,040,816 98.9 Riverine Flooding $558,070 Very High Very High 1.4 $778,642 97.8 Coastal Flooding $208,258 Very High Very High 1.4 $290,569 98.2 Drought $146,022 Very High Very High 1.4 $203,736 98.7 Wildfire $23,077 Very High Very High 1.4 $32,198 89.3 Heat Wave $7,811 Very High Very High 1.4 $10,898 53.1 Tornado $4,247 Very High Very High 1.4 $5,925 14.3 Landslide $4,006 Very High Very High 1.4 $5,589 91.1 Strong Wind $268 Very High Very High 1.4 $373 11.9 Tsunami $23 Very High Very High 1.4 $33 91 Table 283: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1060.01 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 The following Figures 10 - 23 illustrate the Social Vulnerability Map for the San Rafael Census Tracts. Figure 561: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1060.01 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e ucas Va lley Soc ia l Vuln er ab il ity Lege nd San Pablo Ba Wildlife Are; Scor e 81.48 National Percentile 81 .48 Percent ile Within California 71 .40 0 81% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Social Vulnerab ility 100 71% of Cens us tracts in Cal ifornia have a lower Soc ial Vulnerabi lity ■ Very High ■ Re lative ly High ■ Re latively Moderate ■ Relatively Low Very Low ■ Data Unavailabl e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-36 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 10: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1081.00 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $1,252,334 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $1,287,401 93.1 Wildfire $31,464 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $32,345 89.3 Heat Wave $10,456 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $10,749 52.8 Tornado $4,772 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $4,906 11.6 Landslide $3,550 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $3,650 85.7 Strong Wind $336 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $345 11.2 Riverine Flooding $308 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $317 29.3 Coastal Flooding $0 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $0 0 Drought $0 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $0 0 Tsunami $0 Relatively Low Very High 1.03 $0 0 Table 284: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1081.00 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 562: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1081.00 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e lta Soc ial Vu ln erab ility Legend 00:'rillID Terra Linda /Sleepy Hollow Divide ~ ■ Very Hig h ■ Relative ly High ■ Re latively Moderate ■ Relative ly Low ■ Data Unavailable Score 39.45 National Percentile 39 .45 Percent ile Within California -0 39% of U.S. Census t rac t s have a lower Socia l Vulnerability 100 29% of Census t racts in California have a lower Social Vu lne rability Very Low 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-37 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 11: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1082.01 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $546,877 Very High Very High 1.57 $859,791 90.1 Heat Wave $3,994 Very High Very High 1.57 $6,279 43.5 Tornado $1,577 Very High Very High 1.57 $2,480 5.7 Landslide $599 Very High Very High 1.57 $941 63.7 Wildfire $158 Very High Very High 1.57 $248 45.8 Strong Wind $123 Very High Very High 1.57 $194 7.2 Coastal Flooding $0 Very High Very High 1.57 $0 0 Drought $0 Very High Very High 1.57 $0 0 Riverine Flooding $0 Very High Very High 1.57 $0 0 Tsunami $0 Very High Very High 1.57 $0 0 Table 285: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1082.01 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 563: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1082.01 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN Sorich Ranch Park e Social Vulnerability Lege nd ■ Very High ■ Relatively High ■ Re latively Moderate ■ Relatively Low ■ Data Unavailable San Pe Mount Score 95.23 National Percentile 95.23 Percentile Within Ca lifornia 91.50 0 95% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Socia l Vulnerability 100 92% of Census tracts in California have a lower Socia l Vulnerability Very Low 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-38 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 12: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1082.02 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $1,683,172 Very High Very High 1.4 $2,358,985 97 Heat Wave $6,786 Very High Very High 1.4 $9,510 50.6 Tornado $4,156 Very High Very High 1.4 $5,825 14.1 Landslide $3,401 Very High Very High 1.4 $4,767 89.3 Strong Wind $240 Very High Very High 1.4 $336 11 Wildfire $116 Very High Very High 1.4 $162 40.9 Coastal Flooding $0 Very High Very High 1.4 $0 0 Drought $0 Very High Very High 1.4 $0 0 Riverine Flooding $0 Very High Very High 1.4 $0 0 Tsunami $0 Very High Very High 1.4 $0 0 Table 286: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1082.02 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 564: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1082.02 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN ~ e Hollow D ivid e iXllilOOil) iIDffiliE San Pedro Mountain Score National Percentile 82.00 Percentile Within Ca lifornia 71.90 0 82% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Social H~~ Vu lnerability 82 100 72% of Census tracts in California have a lower Social Vulne rabi lity ~ W!lOOID Socia l Vulnerability Legend Dominican University of California ■ Very High ■ Relatively Hi gh ■ Relative ly Moderate ■ Re lative ly Low ■ Data Unavailable Very Low 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-39 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 13: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1090.01 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $858,614 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $926,933 90.7 Heat Wave $6,980 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $7,535 46.6 Tornado $3,117 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $3,365 7.7 Landslide $2,980 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $3,217 83.9 Wildfire $1,757 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $1,897 73.6 Strong Wind $223 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $240 8.5 Coastal Flooding $0 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $0 0 Drought $0 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $0 0 Riverine Flooding $0 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $0 0 Tsunami $0 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.08 $0 0 Table 287: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1090.01 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 565: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1090.01 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e elmo Greenfield A\fe 'il'il'ill@ Socia l Vulnerability Legend San Ratael Dominican University of California ffiIDiiffi) ■ Very High ■ Relatively High ■ Relatively Moderate ■ Re lative ly Low ■ Data Unavailab le Score 46.52 Hwy• Nationa l Percenti le Memo 46.52 Percen t ile Within California -0 47% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Social Vu ln erability 100 s,,.,,,., 35% of Census tracts in California have a lower Social Vulnerabi lity Very Low 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-40 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 14: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1090.02 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $878,039 Very Low Very High 0.77 $676,077 88.5 Landslide $17,439 Very Low Very High 0.77 $13,428 97.2 Heat Wave $6,528 Very Low Very High 0.77 $5,026 39.9 Wildfire $5,930 Very Low Very High 0.77 $4,566 80.1 Tornado $3,032 Very Low Very High 0.77 $2,335 5.4 Strong Wind $211 Very Low Very High 0.77 $162 6.4 Coastal Flooding $0 Very Low Very High 0.77 $0 0 Drought $0 Very Low Very High 0.77 $0 0 Riverine Flooding $0 Very Low Very High 0.77 $0 0 Tsunami $0 Very Low Very High 0.77 $0 0 Table 288: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1090.02 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 566: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1092.02 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e S~selmo San Rafael r - -~ Social Vulnerability Legend San Mo Dominica University Californi Score Na tiona l Percentile 10.24 Percentile Within California I 5 .80 10.24 0 100 10% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Social Vulnerability 6% of Census tracts in California have a lower Social Vulnerability ■ Very High ■ Relatively High ■ Relatively Moderate ■ Relatively Low Very Low ■ Data Unavailable 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-41 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 15: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1101.00 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $1,897,762 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $2,105,437 96.4 Riverine Flooding $507,837 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $563,410 96.9 Landslide $91,056 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $101,020 99.6 Coastal Flooding $34,693 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $38,490 93.9 Heat Wave $9,626 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $10,680 52.7 Tornado $5,822 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $6,459 15.6 Wildfire $3,134 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $3,477 78.6 Tsunami $1,310 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $1,453 96.9 Strong Wind $338 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $375 11.9 Drought $0 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.11 $0 0 Table 289: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1101.00 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 567: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1101.00 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e W3iliID San Rafael wm@ Socia l Vul nerab il ity Legend ~ Harry A Barbie r Memorial Pad iliIDOOID China Camp State Park WiNill) Marin Islands National Wildlife Refuge ■ Very High ■ Re lative ly High ■ Relatively Moderate ■ Re latively Low ■ Data Unavailable Sco r e 50.38 National Percentile 50.38 Percentile Within Ca lifornia -0 50% of U.S. Census t racts have a lower Soc ial Vu l nerability 100 39% of Census t racts in California have a lower Social Vu ln erabi l ity Very Low 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-42 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 16: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1102.00 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $1,454,196 Very Low Very High 0.65 $939,097 90.8 Riverine Flooding $689,063 Very Low Very High 0.65 $444,986 96 Coastal Flooding $99,874 Very Low Very High 0.65 $64,497 95.3 Heat Wave $8,402 Very Low Very High 0.65 $5,426 41.1 Tornado $5,938 Very Low Very High 0.65 $3,835 9 Landslide $4,229 Very Low Very High 0.65 $2,731 81.3 Wildfire $1,521 Very Low Very High 0.65 $982 64.8 Tsunami $754 Very Low Very High 0.65 $487 95 Drought $672 Very Low Very High 0.65 $434 80.9 Strong Wind $313 Very Low Very High 0.65 $202 7.5 Table 290: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1102.00 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 568: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1102.00 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e fael iI!l'.fil@ Harry A Barbie r Memorial Parl W!ll'.ili) China Camp State Park Social Vulnerability Legend Marin Islands National Wildlife Refuge ■ Very High ■ Relative ly High ■ Relatively Moderate ■ Relatively Low ■ Data Unavailable Score 2.9 Nationa l Percenti le 2.97 Percenti le Within California I 1.10 0 3% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Social Vulnerability 1% of Census tracts in California have a lower Socia l Vulnerability Very Low 10 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-43 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 17: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1110.01 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $1,961,205 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $2,094,386 96.4 Riverine Flooding $493,279 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $526,776 96.6 Landslide $1,896 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $2,024 76.3 Heat Wave $1,889 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $2,017 28 Tornado $1,886 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $2,014 4.8 Coastal Flooding $1,016 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $1,085 81.3 Drought $782 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $835 83.2 Strong Wind $82 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $87 4.2 Tsunami $0 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $0 0 Wildfire $0 Relatively Moderate Very High 1.07 $0 0 Table 291: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1110.01 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 569: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1110.01 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e San Rafael afael - t Street 'est Jm 4th St 2nd t Social Vulnerability Legend 5 th 'A ve San Rafael Fourth Street '&~cial ■ Very Hi gh ■ Relatively High ■ Relative ly Moderate ■ Re lative ly Low ■ Data Unavailab le Score 45.01 Nat iona l Percenti le 45.01 Percenti le With in California -0 Hi 45% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Socia l Vuln erab ility 100 34% of Census tracts in Ca li fornia have a lower Social Vuln erability Very Low 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-44 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 18: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1110.02 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $2,186,537 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $2,113,288 96.5 Riverine Flooding $157,397 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $152,125 89.1 Heat Wave $7,761 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $7,501 46.5 Tornado $3,666 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $3,543 8.2 Landslide $3,248 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $3,140 83.5 Wildfire $493 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $476 54.3 Strong Wind $252 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $243 8.6 Coastal Flooding $0 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $0 0 Drought $0 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $0 0 Tsunami $0 Relatively Low Very High 0.97 $0 0 Table 292: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1110.02 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 570: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1110.02 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e SJl..o,...Ac,selmo Greenfield A ve 't.l"lJlA!J.!J WilillXD ~cial Vu lnerab ility Legend I ■ Very High ■ Relatively High ■ Data Unavai lable iI!ill)[) San Rafael ~ 1, Poplar Dr Dominican University of California II Score 30.85 Nati o nal Perc ent il e 30.85 Perce nt il e Within Ca lifornia HMM 0 31% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Social Vu l nerability 100 22% of Census tracts in Ca l ifornia have a lower Socia l Vu lnerability ■ Relatively Moderate ■ Relative ly Low O Very Low 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-45 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 19: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1121.00 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $2,953,072 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $3,592,625 98.6 Riverine Flooding $1,579,204 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $1,921,215 99.2 Coastal Flooding $335,107 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $407,682 98.6 Heat Wave $7,205 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $8,765 49.2 Tornado $4,348 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $5,290 12.7 Landslide $1,412 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $1,717 73.5 Wildfire $544 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $662 59 Strong Wind $253 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $308 10.3 Tsunami $0 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $1 88.3 Drought $0 Relatively High Very High 1.22 $0 0 Table 293: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1121.00 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 571: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1121.00 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN College of Marin Kentfield -Campus • Marin Community College ffim:©O wmilE e San Rafael Socia l Vulnerability Legend II ■ Very High ■ Relatively High ■ Relatively Moderate ■ Relatively Low ■ Data Unavailable Score 63.22 Nationa l Percentile 63.22 Percentile Within California 50.10 0 63% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Social Vulnerability 100 50% of Census tracts in California have a lower Social Vulnerabil ity Very Low 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-46 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 20: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1122.02 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Earthquake $4,623,267 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $6,371,177 99.6 Riverine Flooding $3,465,093 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $4,775,134 99.8 Coastal Flooding $673,143 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $927,637 99.3 Heat Wave $6,945 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $9,571 50.7 Drought $6,392 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $8,808 91.4 Tornado $5,012 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $6,907 16.7 Landslide $1,375 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $1,895 75.2 Tsunami $787 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $1,084 96.5 Wildfire $289 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $398 51.9 Strong Wind $261 Relatively High Very High 1.38 $360 11.6 Table 294: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1122.02 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 572: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1122.02 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e ~u uomrn1can-------~ -~.;,::::.:· --/ San Rafael j{/ia!IOO iJWilffi ,llege of n Kentfield ampus - Marin m~ur:1v. - ~o\ ~geOO ~ University of California Wildlife Refug e ~7 uentin -1-~-- Soc ia l Vu lne rabi lity Legend Score 79.89 Nationa l Percen t ile 79.89 Percentile Within Cal iforni a 69.30 0 80% of U.S. Census tracts have a lower Socia l Vulnerability 100 69% of Census tracts in Californ ia have a lower Soc ial Vulnerability ■ Very Hi gh ■ Re latively High ■ Relatively Moderate ■ Re latively Low Very Low ■ Data Unavailable 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-47 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 21: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1122.03 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Riverine Flooding $949,892 Very High Very High 1.41 $1,335,333 98.8 Earthquake $339,205 Very High Very High 1.41 $476,845 86.4 Coastal Flooding $104,469 Very High Very High 1.41 $146,860 97.1 Heat Wave $4,658 Very High Very High 1.41 $6,548 44.2 Tornado $972 Very High Very High 1.41 $1,367 3.5 Strong Wind $126 Very High Very High 1.41 $177 6.8 Lightning $119 Very High Very High 1.41 $167 3.6 Hail $15 Very High Very High 1.41 $21 3.2 Landslide $3 Very High Very High 1.41 $4 39.8 Tsunami $2 Very High Very High 1.41 $3 89.2 Cold Wave $0 Very High Very High 1.41 $0 0 Drought $0 Very High Very High 1.41 $0 0 Wildfire $0 Very High Very High 1.41 $0 0 Winter Weather $0 Very High Very High 1.41 $0 0 Table 295: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1122.03 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 573: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1122.03 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN Lowrie Yac ht H arbor -San Rafael fi e Social Vulnerability Legend s e\l am 81 \f.q Score 82.36 National Perc en tile 82.36 Percentile Within California 72.30 0 82% of U.S . Census tracts have a lower Social Vu l nerability 100 72% of Census tracts in Cal iforn ia have a lower Social Vu ln erability ■ Very High ■ Relatively High ■ Relatively Moderate ■ Relatively Low O Very Low ■ Data Unavailable 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-48 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 22: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1122.04 Hazard Type EAL Value Social Vulnerability Community Resilience CRF Risk Value Score Riverine Flooding $1,730,596 Very High Very High 1.59 $2,753,311 99.6 Earthquake $742,329 Very High Very High 1.59 $1,181,016 92.5 Coastal Flooding $201,710 Very High Very High 1.59 $320,912 98.3 Heat Wave $7,879 Very High Very High 1.59 $12,536 55.9 Tornado $1,813 Very High Very High 1.59 $2,884 6.6 Tsunami $991 Very High Very High 1.59 $1,576 97.1 Landslide $925 Very High Very High 1.59 $1,472 71 Strong Wind $216 Very High Very High 1.59 $344 11.2 Lightning $203 Very High Very High 1.59 $324 6.6 Hail $25 Very High Very High 1.59 $40 7.5 Cold Wave $0 Very High Very High 1.59 $0 0 Drought $0 Very High Very High 1.59 $0 0 Wildfire $0 Very High Very High 1.59 $0 0 Table 296: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1122.04 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 Figure 574: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1122.04 Source: FEMA National Risk Index 2023 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 4th St Montecito Plaza Shopping Center 101 San Rafael High School - San Rafael City Social Vulnerability Legend Marin Yacht Club -San Rafael Pick leweed Park Pickleweed library ■ Very High ■ Relatively High ■ Relatively Moderate ■ Relatively Low ■ Data Unavailable Spinn Lago Score 96.49 Nationa l Percentile 96.49 Percentile Within Cali fornia 93.90 0 96% of U.S . Cen sus tracts have a lower Socia l Vulnerabil ity 100 94% of Census tracts in California have a lower Social Vulnerability Very Low 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-49 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Social Vulnerability in San Rafael and the Marin County OA Most socially vulnerable residents in the Marin County OA reside in parts of Novato, parts of San Rafael, including in and around the Canal District, the Greenbrae neighborhood of Larkspur, and the unincorporated areas of Marin City and Santa Venetia. This aligns with what the County knows about Marin residents. However, discrepancy lies in the western, more rural area of the county. West Marin is comprised of seven villages, and other populated areas, that are distanced from the centralized resources in the eastern part of the county. At three local elementary school in West Marin (2022-2023 school year), students eligible for free and reduced lunch program are, 62%, 41%, and 52%, a reflection of the financial capacity of local families. West Marin is home to many farms that may employ and house underrecognized workers that may not have taken part in a census survey, what the SVI is calculated from. In the fourth quarter of FY 2021/22 the bus routes traveling to West Marin (Rural Routes) were the only service category to have increased in ridership since pre-COVID (increase 0.1%; Marin Transit, 2022) showing the reliance of West Marin residents on public transportation; however, this data continues to adjust based upon the increase in alternate methods of mass transportation. Considering this, the County of Marin acknowledges that unique social factors in West Marin require different approaches than other parts of the County. Cold Weather Impact on Vulnerable Populations in San Rafael In the last 50 years (1974), average temperatures in Marin County have rose by 6 degrees Fahrenheit. The coldest recorded month was December of 1990 at 34.7 degrees (The Californian.com). The term “extreme cold” is defined by the National Weather Service as temperatures below freezing (32 degrees F), however, the impact of cold weather on individuals may vary by location and other conditions the population typically experience, the types of facilities they are in, and what efforts individuals are expected to take. There are several factors: o Living or working outside of a building o Having windows that do not provide cold weather protection o Wind chill o Rain severity and duration Cold weather is relevant to the City of San Rafael and Marin County populations in the vulnerability to populations who do not have adequate heating sources, those who are not housed, and those who are institutionalized without adequate heating. Prolonged cold, especially combined with rainfall, can cause hypothermia in vulnerable individuals and those affected by cold weather conditions in being safe during episodes of cold weather. Estimated Annual Loss Index, Social Vulnerability Index, and Community Resilience Index in San Rafael Looking to the community resilience index (CRI) results, the data is only calculated at the county-level and compared across the nation. As a whole, the Marin County OA is considered to have a “very high” ability to prepare for anticipated natural hazards, adapt to changing conditions, and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions when compared to the rest of the U.S. Unfortunately, this metric does not give us the distinct experiences of the diverse communities across Marin. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-50 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE When the Estimated Annual Loss Index, Social Vulnerability Index, and Community Resilience Index are aggregated as one, final results of the National Risk Index show the Marin County OA as a whole to have “Relatively High” risk, this is due to the financial implications a disaster may have on the county. When broken out by census tract, five tracts are in the highest category (“Very High Risk”), this matches generally with the same tracts that are ranked in as higher social vulnerability; parts of Novato, parts of San Rafael, including in and around the Canal District, the Greenbrae neighborhood of Larkspur, and unincorporated areas of Santa Venetia. However, Marin City is ranked as “Very Low” risk for the National Risk Index. Previous discussion highlighted why the Expected Annual Loss was low, but further discussion is required. As a County, we know Marin City should not be classified as “Very Low” on the NRI. Marin City residents, for example, only have one way in and out of their community and this road floods frequently, making it unsafe to cross and leave the community for work, school, medical resources. Additionally, there is only one “grocery” store, a Target, in Marin City. Both of these elements contribute to the vulnerability of residents as they may be unable to leave or return home and have limited access to groceries, relying on a single store’s supply chain. At the local elementary school in Marin City, 47% of students are eligible for free and reduced-price meals (2022 – 2023 school year), a reflection of the financial capacity of local families. All this means, we can expect the social and built capacity of Marin City to be limited. The City of San Rafael has 14 census tracts and more than half of them rate Very High (5) or Relatively High (2) for Social Vulnerability. The remaining 5 census tracts rate Relatively Moderate (3), Relatively Low (2) and Very Low (2) in Social Vulnerability Index. The median income for a household in the City was $113,839 and the per capita income for the City was $60,891. Approximately 2.4 percent of families and 5.3 percent of the population were below the poverty line (2022 data, U.S. Census Bureau). 1.8 ECONOMY AND TAX BASE The City of San Rafael is one of the Marin County OA’s primary retail, service, and commercial center. Table 23 shows income by household in The City of San Rafael as of 2019. Table 23: Household Income for The City of San Rafael as of 2021 Household Income Number Percent Total Households 23,816 - Less than $10,000 714 3.0 $10,000 to $14,999 786 3.3 $15,000 to $24,999 1,167 4.9 $25,000 to $34,999 1,000 4.2 $35,000 to $49,999 2,001 8.4 $50,000 to $74,999 3,048 12.8 $75,000 to $99,999 2,620 11.0 $100,000 to $149,999 4,215 17.7 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-51 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 297: Household Income for The City of San Rafael as of 2019 Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey 2021 Estimates Table 24 shows the percentage of people in The City of San Rafael over the age of 16 employed by industry. Table 24: City of San Rafael Civilian Employed Population 16 years+ by Industry Industry Estimated Employed Percent Civilian employed population 16 years and over 31,411 - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 465 1.48% Construction 2778 8.84% Manufacturing 1320 4.20% Wholesale trade 550 1.75% Retail trade 3504 11.16% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 1313 4.18% Information 1462 4.65% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 2295 7.31% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 5479 17.44% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 6391 20.35% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 2971 9.46% Other services, except public administration 1759 5.60% Public administration 1124 3.58% Table 298 City of San Rafael Civilian Employed Population 16 years+ by Industry Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey 2021 Estimates 1.9 CRITICAL FACILITIES The following list of facilities has been determined to be critical to the ability of the City of San Rafael to fulfill the requirements of its mission during an emergency: Table 16: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities Category Name Address Fire Severity Zone Flood Zone Critical Facilities Fire Fire: Marinwood Fire Department (MRW) / Headquarters & Station 58 777 Miller Creek Road 94903 High AE Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 51 1039 C Street 94901 N/A X $150,000 to $199,999 2,453 10.3 $200,000 or more 5,787 24.3 Median household income (dollars) $104,521 Mean household income (dollars) $155,715 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-52 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 16: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities Category Name Address Fire Severity Zone Flood Zone Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 52 210 Third Street 94901 N/A X Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 54 46 Castro Avenue 94901 N/A AE Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 55 955 Pt. San Pedro Road 94901 N/A AE Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 56 650 Del Ganado Road 94903 Moderate X Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 57 3530 Civic Center Drive 94903 N/A X , AE Fire Fire: Skywalker Ranch Fire Brigade (SKY) 5858 Lucas Valley Road 94912 Moderate X Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 53 30 Joseph Court 94903 N/A X Law County Jail 13 Peter Behr Dr, San Rafael, CA 94903 N/A X Law County 911 Communications Center / PSAP 1600 Los Gamos Drive, Suite 200. San Rafael, CA 94903 High X Law Marin County Sheriffs Office 1600 Los Gamos Drive, Suite 200. San Rafael, CA 94903 High X Law San Rafael Police Department 1400 Fifth Avenue, San Rafael, CA 94901 Moderate X EOC Marin County EOC 1600 Los Gamos Drive, Suite 200. San Rafael, CA 94903 High X Local Government Marin Civic Center 3501 Civic Center Dr, San Rafael, CA 94903 N/A X Local Government Marin County Corporate Yard Building 2 Peter Behr Drive, San Rafael, CA 94903 N/A X Local Government Marin County Fuel Island 2 - 6 Peter Behr Drive, San Rafael, CA 94903 N/A X Local Government Marin County Vehicle Repair Shops/Building 2 - 6 Peter Behr Drive, San Rafael, CA 94903 N/A X Local Government Boro Community Center 50 Canal Street, San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A AE Local Government San Rafael Public Works Yard 111 Morphew St, San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A X Local Government San Rafael Community Center 618 B Street, San Rafael CA 94901 N/A AH, AE Local Government Terra Linda Community Center 670 Del Ganado Rd, San Rafael CA 94903 Moderate X Health / Medical Kaiser Permanente San Rafael Medical Center 99 Montecillo Rd, San Rafael, CA 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Adrian Way Home 306 Adrian Way San Rafael, Ca 94903 N/A AE Health / Medical Aldersly (Snf Unit) 326 Mission Ave 94901 N/A X Health / Medical Casa Allegra - Devon Drive Home 363 Devon Dr 94903 High X Health / Medical Kaiser Foundation Hospital - San Rafael 99 Montecillo Rd 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Smith Ranch Generations (Snf) 1550 Silveira Pkwy 94903 Moderate X l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-53 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 16: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities Category Name Address Fire Severity Zone Flood Zone Health / Medical Northgate Post Acute 40 Professional Center Pkwy 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Nova House, Inc. 393 Nova Albion Way 94903 High X Health / Medical Aldersly (Snf Unit) 326 Mission Ave 94901 N/A X Health / Medical Pine Ridge Care Center 45 Professional Center Pkwy 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Professional Post Acute Center 81 Professional Center Pkwy 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Marin Post Acute 234 N San Pedro Rd 94903 Moderate X Health / Medical San Rafael 5th Avenue Health & Wellness 1601 5Th Ave 94901 N/A X Health / Medical Sunrise Ii 48 Golden Hinde Blvd 94903 High X Health / Medical Villa Marin (Rcfe Unit) 100 Thorndale Dr 94903 Moderate X Health / Medical Three Home Village 1, 2, 3 675 Rosal Way, San Rafael, Ca 94903 N/A AE Health / Medical Almavia Of San Rafael 515 Northgate Drive, San Rafael, Ca 94903 High X Health / Medical Nazareth House Of San Rafael, Inc. 245 Nova Albion Way, San Rafael, Ca 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Drake Terrace 275 Los Ranchitos Road, San Rafael, Ca 94903 High X Health / Medical Cogir Memory Care 111 Merrydale Rd, San Rafael, Ca 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Greenwood Assisted Living 233 West End Ave, San Rafael, Ca 94901 Moderate X Health / Medical St. Michael's Extended Care 416 4th Street, San Rafael, Ca 94901 N/A AE, X Health / Medical Golden Home Extended Care, Inc. 1234 Las Gallinas Ave, San Rafael, Ca 94903 High X Health / Medical All Saints Extended Care Inc 1373 Lincoln Ave., San Rafael, Ca 94901 High X Health / Medical D Street Residential Support Services 527 D Street, San Rafael, Ca 94901 N/A X Health / Medical Schon Hyme Rest Home 25 Villa Avenue, San Rafael, Ca 94901 Moderate X Health / Medical A Loving Touch 45 Meriam Drive 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Smith Ranch Homes (Independent Living) 500 Deer Valley Road 94903 High X Health / Medical Luna's Home 1027 Las Pavadas Ave 94903 Moderate X Health / Medical Aldersly (Al) (Rcfe Unit) 326 Mission Ave 94901 N/A X Health / Medical Smith Ranch Skilled Nursing And Rehabilitation Center 1550 Silveira Parkway 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Villa Marin (Snf) 100 Thorndale Dr 94903 Moderate X Health / Medical Dominican Sisters Of San Rafael 1520 Grand Avenue 94901 N/A X l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-54 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 16: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities Category Name Address Fire Severity Zone Flood Zone Health / Medical St. Vincent's School For Boys 1 St Vincent's Drive, 94903 High X, A, AE Health / Medical Lighthouse 714 C Street, San Rafael 94901 N/A AH Health / Medical Casa Allegra - Adrian House 306 Adrian Way, San Rafael N/A AE Health / Medical Long Life Living #1 36 Mt Foraker Drive, San Rafael 94903 High X Health / Medical Dominican Convent - Lourdes Site 77 Locust Ave, San Rafael, 94901 N/A X Health / Medical Dominican Convent - Jane D'anza Site 1540 Grand Ave, San Rafael 94901 N/A X Health / Medical Helen Vine Detox Center 291 Smith Ranch Rd, San Rafael 94903 Moderate X Health / Medical Lifehouse Sunrise Ii 48 Golden Hinde Blvd, San Rafael 94903 High X Health / Medical Bayside Marin Treatment Center 718 4th Street, San Rafael 94901 N/A X Health / Medical Caremax Peachstone Residence 440 Peachstone Terrace, San Rafael 94903 High X Health / Medical Center Point - The Manor 603 D Street, San Rafael 94901 N/A AE Health / Medical Casa Allegra - Happy House 291 Devon Dr, San Rafael, Ca 94901 High X Health / Medical Bay Home Inc. 19 Heatherstone Court, San Rafael 94903 High X Health / Medical Marin Services For Men 501 Whitewood Drive, San Rafael, 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Castle SLE 1363 Lincoln Ave #4, San Rafael, CA 94901 High X Health / Medical Villa Marin (Il) 100 Thorndale Dr 94903 Moderate X Health / Medical Parnow Friendship House 164 North San Pedro Road, San Rafael 94903 Moderate X Health / Medical Lifehouse - Knoll Rd 18 Professional Center Parkway, San Rafael 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Newport Academy 5 Maoli Dr, San Rafael, Ca 94903 High X Health / Medical Helen Vine San Rafael House 235 Union Street. San Rafael, Ca 94901 N/A X Health / Medical L'chaim House I 777 Montcillo Rd, San Rafael 94903 High X Health / Medical Long Life Living #3 57 Vallejo Way, San Rafael 94903 High X Health / Medical L'chaim House II 463 Albion Way, San Rafael 94903 High X Health / Medical Lifehouse - Nova 93 Nova Albion Way, San Rafael 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Tender Residential Home 257 Blackstone Dr, San Rafael 94903 Very High X Health / Medical Aldersly (Il Unit) 326 Mission Ave 94901 N/A X l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-55 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 16: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities Category Name Address Fire Severity Zone Flood Zone Health / Medical Buckelew Mariner Circle 6 Mariner Circle, San Rafael N/A AE Health / Medical Buckelew - Avanti 7 Le Claire Ct, San Rafael, Ca 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Casa Allegra - 980 Ignacio 35 Mitchell Blvd #8, San Rafael, Ca 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Lifehouse - 1600 Vendola Drive 1600 Vendola Dr, San Rafael, Ca 94903 N/A AE Health / Medical Lifehouse (Supportive Living - Various Sites) 18 Professional Center Parkway, San Rafael, Ca 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Casa Allegra - Reichert Ave 35 Mitchell Blvd. Suite 8 San Rafael, Ca 94903 N/A X Health / Medical Marin Health & Wellness Campus 3253 Kerner Blvd, San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A AE Health / Medical Kaiser Permanente Downtown San Rafael Medical Offices 1033 3rd St, San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A AH, X Health / Medical Marin Community Clinic 3110 Kerner Boulevard, San Rafael, CA N/A AE Health / Medical Kaiser Permanente San Rafael Medical Offices 1650 Los Gamos Dr., San Rafael, CA 94903 High X Health / Medical MarinHealth Urgent Care 4000 Civic Center Dr, San Rafael, CA 94903 N/A X School Dominican University 50 Acacia Avenue San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A X School Bahia Vista Elementary 125 Bahia Vista, San Rafael CA 94901 N/A AE School Coleman Elementary 800 Belle Ave. San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A X School Glenwood Elementary 25 West Castlewood San Rafael, CA 94901 Moderate X, AE School Laurel Dell Elementary 225 Woodland Ave. San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A X School San Pedro Elementary 498 Point San Pedro San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A X School Sun Valley Elementary 75 Happy Lane San Rafael, CA 94901 High X School Vallecito School 50 Nova Albion Way, San Rafael CA 94903 N/A X School Venetia Valley TK-8 177 N. San Pedro Rd. San Rafael, CA 94903 N/A X School Davidson Middle 280 Woodland Ave. San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A X, AE School San Rafael High 150 Third Street San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A X School Terra Linda High 320 Nova Albion Way San Rafael, CA 94903 Moderate X School Madrone High 185 Mission Ave. San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A AE, X Airport/ Heliport San Rafael - Airport 400 Smith Ranch Rd, San Rafael, CA 94903 N/A AE High Potential Loss Facilities None Critical Infrastructure l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-56 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 16: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities Category Name Address Fire Severity Zone Flood Zone Water/Wastew ater Central Marin Sanitation & Household Hazardous Waste Facility 1301 Andersen Drive, San Rafael, CA 94901 Moderate AE, X Communications MERA Antenna Site - Dollar Hill Robert Dollar Dr., San Rafael, CA High X Communications MERA Antenna Site - EOF 1600 Los Gamos Dr 94903 High X Communications MERA Antenna Site - Forbes Hill Hepburn Heights Rd, San Rafael, CA Moderate X Communications MERA Antenna Site - Marin County Radio Shop N/A X Communications MERA Antenna Site - San Pedro Ridge Site Mayhills Rd. San Rafael, CA Moderate X Power Utility PG&E Substation - Las Gallinas 125 N Redwood Dr., San Rafael, CA 94903 High X Power Utility PG&E Substation - San Rafael 2nd St, San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A AH Transportation Marin Transit 711 Grand Ave, San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A AE Transportation Golden Gate Transit: Transit Center Customer Service Center 850 Tamalpais San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A AH Transportation Golden Gate Transit: EOC, Dispatch, Fuel, IT 1011 Andersen Dr., San Rafael, CA 94901 N/A AE Transportation San Rafael Transportation Center (SMART Train & central bus station) 3rd & Hetherton, San Rafael, CA, 94901 N/A AH, X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station - Piombo LAT: 37.96 LON: -122.49 N/A AE Communications MERA Antenna Site - Mt Burdell 38.1449, -122.5941 Moderate X Communications MERA Antenna Site – Big Rock Ridge 38.0591, -122.6039 Moderate X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – San Quentin LAT: 37.96 LON: -122.49 N/A VE Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Cayes LAT: 37.96 LON: -122.49 N/A AE Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Kerner LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.50 N/A AE Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – 400 Canal LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.51 N/A X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Rossi LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.51 N/A X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station- Montecito LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.52 N/A X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – North Francisco LAT: 37.97 LON: - 122.52 N/A AE Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Corporate Center LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.52 N/A nN?A Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Lindaro LAT: 37.97 Lon: - 122.53 N/A AH Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Glenwood LAT: 37.98 Lon: - 122.48 N/A X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Peacock LAT: 37.98 Lon: - 122.47 N/A X, AE Table 299: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities Source: City of San Rafael l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-57 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 1.10 HISTORICAL PROPERTIES The City of San Rafael has twelve registered historically significant homes, public buildings, or landmarks. To inventory these resources, the HMPC collected information from a number of sources: • California Department of Parks and Recreation Office of Historic Preservation (OHP) OHP is responsible for the administration of federally and state mandated historic preservation programs to further the identification, evaluation, registration, and protection of California’s irreplaceable archaeological and historical resources. OHP administers the National Register of Historic Places, the California Register of Historical Resources, California Historical Landmarks, and the California Points of Historical Interest programs. • City of San Rafael Chamber of Commerce. • City of San Rafael website. As defined by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), any property over 50 years of age is considered a potential historic resource and is potentially eligible for the National or California Register. Thus, in the event that the property is to be altered, or has been altered, as the result of a major federal action, the property must be evaluated under the guidelines set forth by NEPA. Structural mitigation projects are considered alterations for the purpose of this regulation. Similar regulations exist for buildings under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). There is a list of numerous other potentially historically significant structures listed in Appendix B of the City’s General Plan. Table 26: Historic Sites In The City of San Rafael Name/Landmark State Plaque Number National Register (NR) State Landmark California Register Date Listed (NR) Jurisdiction Boyd House X 12/17/1974 San Rafael Bradford House X 6/6/1980 San Rafael China Camp (924) X X X 4/26/1979 San Rafael Dixie Schoolhouse X 12/26/1972 San Rafael Robert Dollar Estate X 12/11/1972 San Rafael Robert Dollar House X 7/23/1991 San Rafael Marin County Civic Center (999) X 7/17/1991 San Rafael Erskine B. McNear House X 1/11/1982 San Rafael Miller Creek School Indian Mound X 10/14/1971 San Rafael Mission San Rafael Arcangel (220) X X San Rafael l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-58 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 26: Historic Sites In The City of San Rafael Name/Landmark State Plaque Number National Register (NR) State Landmark California Register Date Listed (NR) Jurisdiction San Rafael Improvement Club X 3/29/1984 San Rafael St. Vincent’s School for Boys (630) X X San Rafael Table 300: Historic Sites In The City of San Rafael Source: California Office of Historic Preservation and the National Register of Historic Places l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-59 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 575: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Source: Marin County OEM l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e I:) San elmo Marin County / San Rafael Critical Infrastructure in wood Harry A Barbier Memor' ark • 0FflCI 0I ~ .~ ~ EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Legend e Dams • Military and Civil Defense Installations Communication Facilities e Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities e Water Supply Facilities • Airports Emergency Operations Centers • Fire Stations Hospitals and Medical Facil ities Poli ce / Sheriff Stations Schools 0 0.5 2 Jt!e vMi:!<L ,... Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM _GIS @MarinCounty.org Date Printed: 11 /01/23 ~ N Co un ty of Marin, Ca li fo rni a State Parks, Esri, HE RE, Ga rmin, Sa feGra ph, GeoTech nolog ies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Burea u of Lan d Ma nageme nt, EPA, NP S, USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-60 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 2.0: HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT The City of San Rafael identified hazards that affect the city and developed natural hazard profiles based upon the countywide risk assessment, past events and their impacts. Figure 25 shows the top hazards that the Jurisdiction is at risk from according to the hazard mitigation Steering Committee. Figure 576: City of San Rafael Hazard Risk Assessment Ranking Figure 26: Risk Rank Categorization Risk Level Risk Numerical Score High Risk 12 - 16 Serious Risk 8 - 11 Moderate Risk 4 - 7 Low Risk 1 - 3 Figure 577: Hazard Risk Categorization Each Marin County OA MJHMP participating jurisdiction and organization reviewed and approved the Top Hazards identified by the Planning Team. Each participating jurisdiction and organization then completed a more complex assessment tool to further develop their hazard assessment and prioritization. The planning process used the available FEMA tools to evaluate all the possible threats faced. The primary tool selected was the Hazard Assessment and Prioritization Tool. This matrix allowed the participating jurisdiction or organization to assess their own level of vulnerability and mitigation capability. Each participating Jurisdiction and organization assessed the top hazards for: 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 7 00 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 We i g h t e d R a n k P e r c e n t a g e V a l u e Hazard Types Hazards by Rank l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-61 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE • Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events • Geographic Extent • Magnitude/ Severity • Climate Change Influence • Significance Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events • Unlikely: Occurs in intervals greater than 100 years - Less than 1% probability of occurrence in the next year or a recurrence interval greater than 100 years. • Occasional: Occurring every 11 to 100 years - 1-10% probability of occurrence in the next year or a recurrence interval of 11 to 100 years. • Likely: Occurring every 1 to 10 years - 10-90% probability of occurrence in the next year or recurrence interval of 1 to 10 years. • Highly Likely: Occurring almost every year - 90-100% probability of occurrence in the next year or a recurrence interval of less than 1 year. Geographic Extent • Negligible: Less than 10% of the planning area • Limited: 10-25% of the planning area • Significant: 25-75% of planning area • Extensive: 75-100% of planning area Magnitude/ Severity • Weak: Limited classification on scientific scale, slow speed of onset or short duration of event, resulting in little to no damage. • Moderate: Moderate classification on scientific scale, moderate speed of onset or moderate duration of event, resulting in some damage and loss of services for days. • Severe: Severe classification on scientific scale, fast speed of onset or long duration of event, resulting in devastating damage and loss of services for weeks or months. • Extreme: Extreme classification on scientific scale, immediate onset or extended duration of event, resulting in catastrophic damage and uninhabitable conditions. Table 27: Select Hazards Magnitude and Severity Scale Hazard Scale/Index Weak Moderate Severe Extreme Drought Palmer Drought Severity Index +1.99 to -1.99 -2.00 to -2.99 -3.00 to -3.99 -4.00 and below Earthquake Modified Mercalli I to IV V to VII VIII IX to XII Richter Magnitude 2,3 4,5 6 7,8 Tornado Fujita Tornado Damage Scale FO F1, F2 F3 F4, F5 Table 301: Select Hazards Magnitude/ Severity Scale or Index l ~'?UN. TY OF ~---~ ~ARIN ~ I I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-62 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Climate Change Influence • Low: Minimal potential impact • Medium: Moderate potential impact • High: Widespread potential impact Significance • Low: Minimal potential impact - Two or more criteria fall in lower classifications, or the event has a minimal impact on the planning area. This rating is sometimes used for hazards with a minimal or unknown record of occurrences or for hazards with minimal mitigation potential. • Medium: Moderate potential impact - The criteria fall mostly in the middle ranges of classifications and the event’s impacts on the planning area are noticeable but not devastating. This rating is sometimes used for hazards with a high extent rating but very low probability rating. • High: Widespread potential impact - The criteria consistently fall in the high classifications and the event is likely/highly likely to occur with. 2.1 CLIMATE CHANGE The County of Marin and associated jurisdictions profiled jointly recognize that the earth’s climate is forcibly being augmented due to humans’ reliance on fossil fuels and non-natural resources which pose negative impacts on the earth’s climate. Reliance on fossil fuels and non - natural products results in the climate shifting to include unseasonable temperatures, more frequent and intense storms, prolonged heat and cold events, and a greater reliance on technological advancements to maintain the wellbeing of community members and balance of the environment. The forced adaptation to climatic shifts is necessary for the County and jurisdictions to understand and include with these assessments. Locally to Marin, drought and rain events have already had devastating impacts to critical infrastructure, agriculture, and water resources; and globally, unseasonable temperatures have been identified as the cause for enhanced wildfires, severe droughts, ice sheets and glaciers disappearing, and persons emigrating from their countries due to a lack of sustainable, local resources. Melting land ice contributes additional water to the oceans and as ocean temperatures rise the water expands, both of which contribute to increase rates of sea level rise. Marin is bordered on the west by the Pacific Ocean and on the east by San Francisco Bay, making it particularly vulnerable to flooding and erosion caused by sea level rise. The cause of current climate change is largely human activity, burning fossil fuels, natural gas, oil, and coal. Burning these materials releases greenhouse gases into Earth’s atmosphere. Greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun’s rays inside the atmosphere causing Earth’s average temperature to rise. This rise in the planet's temperature was formerly called, “global warming”, but climate change has shown to include both intense heat and cold shifts. The warming of the planet impacts local and regional climates. Throughout Earth's history, climate has continually changed; however, when occurring naturally, this is a slower process that has taken place over hundreds and thousands of years. The human influenced climate change that is happening now is occurring at an abnormally faster rate with devastating results. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-63 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE GLOBAL OBSERVED AND PROJECTED IMPACTS AND RISKS AR6 WGI Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers (ipcc.ch) • Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. • Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans. • Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming, climate change will lead to numerous risks to natural and human systems. • The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming. • Multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions. FUTURE TRENDS/ IMPACTS Source: Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov) Global Warming • If global warming transiently exceeds 1.5°C in the coming decades or later, then many human and natural systems will face additional severe risks. • An estimated 60% of today’s methane emissions are the result of human activities. The largest sources of methane are agriculture, fossil fuels, and decomposition of landfill waste. • The concentration of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled over the past 200 years. Scientists estimate that this increase is responsible for 20 to 30% of climate warming since the Industrial Revolution (which began in 1750). • According to the most recent National Climate Assessment, droughts in the Southwest and heat waves (periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks) are projected to become more intense, and cold waves less intense and less frequent. • The last eight years have been the hottest years on record for the globe. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-64 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 578: NASA Global Temperature Change CO2 Gas Source: NASA Global Climate Change, 2022 Figure 579: NASA Global Temperature Change 1884 to 2022 Source: NASA Global Climate Change, 2022 Drought • A NASA-led study in 2022 concluded that the 22-year-long megadrought in southwestern US was the driest the territory had experienced in at least 1,200 years and was expected to persist through at least 2022. Sea Level Rise • Global sea levels are rising as a result of human-caused global warming, with recent rates being unprecedented over the past 2,500-plus years. • U.S. Sea Level Likely to Rise 1 to 6.6 Feet by 2100. I ~<;>UNTY OF ~ARIN ~ ~ ATMOSPHERIC METHANE CONCENTRATIONS SINCE 1984 Data source: Data from NOAA, measured from a global network of air sampling sites 1990 2000 YEAR TIME SERIES: 1884 TO 2022 Data source: NASNGISS Credit: NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio 2010 420 400 2 .Q E 380 ~ C. "' 360 t: "' s c5 340 (.) 320 2020 1960 1970 1980 1990 YEAR 2000 2010 2020 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-65 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE • Global sea level has risen about 8 inches (0.2 meters) since reliable record-keeping began in 1880. By 2100, scientists project that it will rise at least another foot (0.3 meters), but possibly as high as 6.6 feet (2 meters) in a high-emissions scenario. • Sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is expected to continue decreasing, and the Arctic Ocean will very likely become essentially ice-free in late summer if current projections hold. This change is expected to occur before mid-century. • An indicator of changes in the Arctic sea ice minimum over time. Arctic sea ice extent both affects and is affected by global climate change. Figure 580: NASA Global Temperature Change Sea Level Source: NASA Global Climate Change, 2022 Wildfire • Warming temperatures have extended and intensified wildfire season in the West, where long-term drought in the region has heightened the risk of fires. • Scientists estimate that human-caused climate change has already doubled the area of forest burned in recent decades. By around 2050, the amount of land consumed by wildfires in Western states is projected to further increase by two to six times. • Even in traditionally rainy regions like the Southeast, wildfires are projected to increase by about 30%. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN SATELLITE DATA: 1993-PRESENT Data source: Satellite sea level observations. Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center 100 E 80 E --= 60 C -~ :... ;; 40 .E C, 'iji I (',:: 20 al (,/) 0 19,95 20 0 0 2005 RISE SINCE 199J mi llimeters 2010 20 15 2020 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-66 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Flooding (Precipitation) • Climate change is having an uneven effect on precipitation (rain and snow) in the United States, with some locations experiencing increased precipitation and flooding, while others suffer from drought. Climate change is having an adverse effect on this type of hazard in the Bay Area, including Marin County, including sea level rise and storm flooding from regular precipitation and atmospheric rivers. • On average, more winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. For the City of San Rafael, this means more impact on the storm drainage system. • Projections of future climate over the U.S. suggest that the recent trend toward increased heavy precipitation events will continue. This means that while it may rain less frequently in some regions (such as the Southwest), when it does rain, heavy downpours will be more common. • Flooding impacts are intensified during high tides as many of the City storm drains discharge into the Bay below king tide heights. Many outfalls become non-operational during high tides, causing flooding, a problem that will be exasperated with sea level rise. Cold Weather • In the last 50 years (1974), average temperatures in Marin County have rose by 6 degrees Fahrenheit. The coldest recorded month was December of 1990 at 34.7 degrees (The Californian.com). The term “extreme cold” is defined by the National Weather Service as temperatures below freezing (32 degrees F), however, the impact of cold weather on individuals may vary by location and other conditions the population typically experience, the types of facilities they are in, and what efforts individuals are expected to take. There are several factors: o Living or working outside of a building o Having windows that do not provide cold weather protection o Wind chill o Rain severity and duration • The length of the frost-free season, and the corresponding growing season, has been increasing since the 1980s, with the largest increases occurring in the western United States. • Cold weather is relevant to the City of San Rafael and Marin County populations in the vulnerability to populations who do not have adequate heating sources, those who are not housed, and those who are institutionalized without adequate heating. Prolonged cold, especially combined with rainfall, can cause hypothermia in vulnerable individuals. • Cold weather is relevant to the City of San Rafael and Marin County jurisdictions and partners in aiding those affected by cold weather conditions in being safe during episodes of cold weather. According to the California Natural Resource Agency (CNRA), climate change is already affecting California and is projected to continue to do so well into the foreseeable future. Current and projected changes include increased temperatures, seal level rise, a reduced winter snowpack, altered precipitation patterns, and more frequent storm events. Over the long term, reducing greenhouse gases can help make these changes less severe, but the changes cannot l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-67 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE be avoided entirely. Unavoidable climate impacts result in a variety of secondary consequences including detrimental impacts on human health and safety, economic continuity, ecosystem integrity and provision of basic services. Climate change is being profiled in the 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP as a standalone hazard while addressing each of the other natural hazards. The Marin County OA is considering climate change issues when identifying future mitigation actions. California is experiencing a climate crisis that is increasingly taking a toll on the health and well- being of its people and on its unique and diverse ecosystems. Every Californian has suffered from the effects of record high temperatures, dry winters, prolonged drought, and proliferating wildfires in recent years. California’s biodiversity is threatened as alterations to habitat conditions brought about by a changing climate are occurring at a pace that could overwhelm the ability of plant and animal species to adapt. Indicators of Climate Change in California Source: 2022 Report: Indicators of Climate Change in California | OEHHA • Since 1895, annual average air temperatures in California have increased by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (°F). Warming occurred at a faster rate beginning in the 1980s. • Recent years have been especially warm: Eight of the ten warmest years on record occurred between 2012 and 2022; 2014 was the warmest year on record. • Of all the Western states, California endured the hottest temperatures for the longest time, driving the average statewide temperature to the second warmest over the past 128 years. • Extreme heat ranks among the deadliest of all climate-driven hazards in California, with physical, social, political, and economic factors effecting the capacity of individuals, workers, and communities to adapt, and with the most severe impacts often on communities who experience the greatest social and health inequities. • Glaciers have essentially disappeared from the Trinity Alps in Northern California • In 2020, wildfire smoke plumes were present in each county for at least 46 days. • The 2022 fire season saw more fires than the previous fire season along with continued extreme drought and heat conditions. • The drought, begun in 2019, was the third statewide drought declared in California since 2000. • This drought has been marked by extreme swings; the state received record-breaking amounts of precipitation in October and December 2021 that were offset by the driest January, February, and March 2022 dating back more than 100 years. The year 2023 opened with California simultaneously managing both drought and flood emergencies. • A series of storms in late December 2022 and early January 2023 broke rural levees, disrupted power, flooded roads, downed trees, and eroded coastal land. • Sea level rise accelerates coastal erosion, worsens coastal flooding during large storms and peak tidal events, and impacts important infrastructure positioned along our state’s 1,100-mile coast. • The western drought which impacted all of California and the western United States was nearly lifted due to unseasonably heavy rains in late 2022 and early 2023. The graph below shows the relative change, in millimeters, in sea levels at Crescent City (1933- 2020), San Francisco (1900-2020), and La Jolla (1925-2020). l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-68 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 581: Annual Mean Sea Level Trends Source: 2022 Report: Indicators of Climate Change in California | OEHHA Climate Change in the Marin County Operational Area Climate change is already having significant impacts across California. Temperatures are warming, heat waves are more frequent, and precipitation has become increasingly variable. Climate change will continue to alter Marin County OA ecosystems as a result of rising temperatures, changes in precipitation, and sea level rise, which will increase the severity and occurrence of natural hazards across the Marin County OA well into the future. Coastal cooling processes that keep temperatures down, such as fog, will continue to decrease. Rising temperatures will exacerbate drought conditions and raise the potential for significant wildfires and associated smoke as vegetation becomes drier and tree mortality increases. Forested woodlands that play a major role in carbon reduction will gradually transition into chaparral and shrublands. There will be more extreme storms and weather events, including expanded heat waves and increased rain events with changes in precipitation. Significant rain events will lead to an increase in flooding and the potential for severe landslides. Shoreline communities will become inundated with sea level rise, storm surge, and high tide events. Marshlands and wetlands that act as natural storm barriers will disappear as they transition into open water. Notable impacts from climate change that are already evident in the Marin County OA and surrounding region as identified in a 2020 Marin County Civil Grand Jury Report include: • From 1895-2018, the average temperature in Marin County increased by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit. • Over the past century, sea level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area rose by eight inches and has accelerated rapidly since 2011. • The threat of wildfires in 2019 was so severe that Pacific Gas and Electric shut off electric power to the County for multiple days. Climate change will continue to affect homes, businesses, infrastructure, utilities, transportation systems and agriculture across the Marin County OA. The risk to socially vulnerable populations will increase as they feel the immediate impacts of climate change more significantly and are less able to adapt to climate changes and recover from its impacts. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e -Crescent City -La Joll a -San Franc isco 1900 1910 19 20 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20 10 2020 Chart: OEHHA Climate Change Indicators of California 2022 • Source: NOAA • Get the data • Download image • Created with Da tawrapper 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-69 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE The Marin County OA has adopted numerous planning initiatives and mitigation measures to help combat the effects of climate change across the OA. The Marin Climate Energy Partnership (MCEP), which is a partnership program including numerous Marin County jurisdictions, the County of Marin, and regional agencies, adopted a model Climate Action Plan (CAP) that is intended to support countywide strategic efforts and is currently being used to update or establish climate action plans for additional jurisdictions within Marin County. The adopted Climate Action Plan serves as the adopted plan for the unincorporated County, which was completed in 2020. The MCEP also collects data and reports on progress in meeting each County jurisdictions’ individual greenhouse gas emission targets. In October 2022, the County published the Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Unincorporated Community Emissions for the Year 2020. Marin County OA jurisdictions have already met their greenhouse reduction goals for 2020 and are about halfway to meeting the statewide goal to reduce emissions 40% below 1990 levels by the year 2030. Marin County also formed a Sea Level Marin Adaptation Response Team in 2018 and had a Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment and associated Adaptation Report completed for the County and each of its jurisdictions in 2017 as part of their Bay Waterfront Adaptation and Vulnerability Evaluation. Additional Marin County OA climate change mitigation programs and initiatives include Marin Clean Energy, Electrify Marin, the Marin Solar Project, the Marin Energy Watch Partnership, Resilient Neighborhoods, and Drawdown: Marin. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-70 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 2.2 HAZARDS Of the hazards profiled in the Marin County OA MJHMP, those noted in the table are specific for the City of San Rafael as per the planning team. Table 28: City of San Rafael Hazard Risk Assessment Hazard Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Debris Flow Highly Likely Significant Moderate Medium Medium 13.00 Drought Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 14.00 Earthquake Occasional Significant Severe None Medium 10.00 Flooding Highly Likely Significant Severe High High 16.00 Land Subsidence Highly Likely Significant Weak Low Medium 11.00 Levee Failure Unlikely Significant Severe High High 13.00 Sea Level Rise Highly Likely Significant Moderate High High 15.00 Severe Weather – Extreme Heat Likely Extensive Moderate High Low 13.00 Severe Weather – Wind, Tornado Occasional Extensive Moderate Medium Medium 12.00 Tsunami Unlikely Limited Moderate None Medium 7.00 Wildfire Likely Significant Severe High Medium 14.00 Table 302: City of San Rafael Hazard Risk Assessment Source: City of San Rafael Omitted Hazards Because San Rafael does not have any dams and is not within a dam flood inundation zone, dam failure is an omitted hazard. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~---~ ~ARIN ~ I I I I 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-71 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 29: County of Marin Hazard Risk Assessment Hazard Probability/ Likelihood of Future Events Geographic Extent Magnitude/ Severity Climate Change Influence Significance Risk Score Dam Failure Unlikely Negligible Extreme Low Medium 9.00 Debris Flow Occasional Extensive Severe Medium Medium 13.00 Drought Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High High 16.00 Earthquake Highly Likely Extensive Extreme None High 15.00 Flooding Highly Likely Limited Severe High Medium 14.00 Land Subsidence Occasional Limited Moderate Medium Medium 10.00 Levee Failure Unlikely Negligible Moderate Medium High 9.00 Sea Level Rise Highly Likely Limited Extreme High High 16.00 Severe Weather – Extreme Heat Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 Severe Weather – High Wind/Tornado Highly Likely Extensive Moderate High Medium 15.00 Tsunami Highly Likely Limited Extreme Medium High 15.00 Wildfire Highly Likely Significant Severe High High 16.00 Table 303: Hazard Risk Assessment Source: County of Marin 2.2.1 DEBRIS FLOWS For the purposes of the Marin County OA MJHMP, debris flows are classified as landslides (including rockslides) and mud flows. A landside is the breaking away and gravity-driven downward movement of hill slope materials, which can travel at speeds ranging from fractions of an inch per year to tens of miles per hour depending on the slope steepness and water content of the rock/soil mass. Landslides range from the size of an automobile to a mile or more in length and width and, due to their sheer weight and speed, can cause serious damage and loss of life. The rate of a landslide is affected by the type and extent of vegetation, slope angle, degree of water saturation, strength of the rocks, and the mass and thickness of the deposit. Some of the natural causes of this instability are earthquakes, weak materials, stream and coastal erosion, and heavy rainfall. In addition, certain human activities tend to make the earth materials less stable and increase the chance of ground failure. These activities include extensive irrigation, poor drainage or groundwater withdrawal, removal of stabilizing vegetation and over-steepening of slopes by undercutting them or overloading them with artificial fill. These activities can cause slope failure, which normally produce landslides. Landslide material types are often broadly categorized as either rock or soil, or a combination of the two for complex movements. Rock refers to hard or firm bedrock that was intact and in place l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-72 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE prior to slope movement. Soil, either residual or transported material, means unconsolidated particles. The distinction between rock and soil is most often based on interpretation of geomorphic characteristics within landslide deposits, but can also be inferred from geologic characteristics of the parent material described on maps or in the field. Landslide movements are also based on the geomorphic expression of the landslide deposit and source area, and are categorized as falls, topples, spreads, slides, or flows. Falls are masses of soil or rock that dislodge from steep slopes and free fall. Topples move by the forward pivoting of a mass around an axis below the displaced mass. Lateral spreads move by horizontal extension and shear or tensile fractures. Slides displace masses of material along one or more discrete planes and can either be rotational or transitional. Flows mobilize as a deforming, viscous mass without a discrete failure plane. Natural conditions that contribute to landslide include the following: • Degree of slope • Water (heavy rain, river flows, or wave action) • Unconsolidated soil or soft rock and sediments • Lack of vegetation (no stabilizing root structure) • Previous wildfires and other forest disturbances • Earthquake In addition, many human activities tend to make the earth materials less stable and, thus, increase the chance of ground movement. Human activities contribute to soil instability through grading of steep slopes or overloading them with artificial fill, by extensive irrigation, construction of impermeable surfaces, excessive groundwater withdrawal, and removal of stabilizing vegetation. Another hazard related to landslide and erosion is the fall of a detached mass of rock from a cliff or down a very steep slope (rockfall). Weathering and decomposition of geological materials produce conditions favorable to rockfalls. Other causes include ice wedging, root growth, or ground shaking (earthquake). Destructive landslides and rockfalls usually occur very suddenly with little or no warning time and are short in duration. Landslides can cause high mortality and injuries from rapidly flowing water and debris. The most common cause of death in a landslide is trauma or suffocation by entrapment. Broken power, water, gas or sewage pipes can also result in injury or illness in the population affected, such as water-borne diseases, electrocution or lacerations from falling debris. People affected by landslides can also have short- and long-term mental health effects due to loss of family, property, livestock or crops. Landslides can also greatly impact the health system and essential services, such as water, electricity or communication lines. Landslide susceptibly can be characterized by looking at both slope class and rock strength. Landslide susceptibility classes express the generalization that on very low slopes, landslide susceptibility is low even in weak rock, and that landslide susceptibility increases with slope and in weaker rocks. Very high landslide susceptibility includes very steep slopes in hard rocks and moderate to very steep slopes in weak rocks. Figure 31 shows landslide susceptibility classes. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-73 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 582: Landslide Susceptibility Classes Source: USGS A mud flow is a general term for a mass-movement landform and process characterized by a flowing mass of fine-grained earth material with a high degree of fluidity. Heavy rainfall, snowmelt, or high levels of groundwater flowing through cracked bedrock may trigger a movement of soil or sediments. Floods and debris flows may also occur when strong rains on hill or mountain slopes cause extensive erosion and/or what is known as "channel scour". Some broad mud flows are rather viscous and therefore slow; others begin very quickly and continue like an avalanche. Mud flows are composed of at least 50% silt and clay-sized materials and up to 30% water. The point where a muddy material begins to flow depends on its grain size and the water content. Fine grainy material or soil has a smaller friction angle than a coarse sediment or a debris flow, but falling rock pieces can trigger a material flow, too. When a mud flow occurs it is given four named areas, the 'main scarp', in bigger mud flows the 'upper and lower shelves', and the 'toe'. See Figure 32 for the typical areas of a mud flow, with shelves (right) and without (left). The main scarp will be the original area of incidence, the toe is the last affected area(s). The upper and lower shelves are located wherever there is a large dip (due to mountain or natural drop) in the mud flow's path. A mud flow can have many shelves. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ ~ARIN ~ ROCK STRENGTH D !IJ II [I] 0 0 0 U) [f] U) 0 V VII <e: [I] 0 V VII ....l u m 1-ll CTI VI '1.. 0 ....l U) LAN DSLIDE SUSCEPTIBIL ITY CLASSES ( 0 Ill V VI VII VIII IX X ) inaeasing susceptibitity 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-74 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 583: Mud Flow Areas Source: Washington Department of Natural Resources If large enough, mud flows can devastate villages and country-sides. Mud flows are common in mountain areas prone to wildfire, where they have destroyed many homes built on hillsides without sufficient support after fires destroy vegetation holding the land. The area most generally recognized as being at risk of a dangerous mud flow are: • Areas where wildfires or human modification of the land have destroyed vegetation • Areas where landslides have occurred before • Steep slopes and areas at the bottom of slopes or canyons • Slopes that have been altered for construction of buildings and roads • Channels along streams and rivers • Areas where surface runoff is directed A landslide in San Rafael would most likely occur in the areas of the City where the terrain is steeper and is more susceptible to movement of soil. Most of San Rafael is hilly and lies in an areas of moderate to high landslide susceptibility. Some areas of the city have extreme landslide susceptibility including along the border of Sleepy Hollow and Lucas Valley, north of downtown, and in the southern end near Larkspur. These areas of San Rafael are primarily residential and consist of numerous winding streets and hillside homes that could be damaged or destroyed by a landslide. Residences in or on the fringes of open space areas including the San Pedro Mountain Open Space Preserve, Harry A. Barbier Memorial Park, China Camp State Park, the Loma Alta Open Space Preserve and the Terra Linda Open Space Preserve have moderate to high susceptibility to a landslide. There are thousands of residences in these areas. A landslide in any of areas could impact ingress and egress into communities that are at high susceptibility of a landslide. Highway 101 also has high landslide susceptibility through much of central San Rafael, and a landslide on the highway could cause significant transportation challenges that could impact the City. Much of downtown, including commercial buildings, the San Rafael City Hall, the San Rafael Police Department, the San Rafael Fire Station #51 and the Marin Academy lies in an area of moderate landslide susceptibility. Numerous schools in southern San Rafael lie on the fringe of areas with moderate to high land susceptibility and include the Dominican University of California, the Laurel Dell Academy, the Davidson Middle School, the Glenwood School, San Rafael High School, the San Raphael School, and the Sun Valley School. Numerous critical facilities in northern San Rafael lie partly in areas of moderate to high landslide susceptibility and include Gallinas Elementary School, Terra Linda High School, the Vallecito School, the Mark Day School, the San Rafael Fire Station #53 and the Marin County Civic Center. There are dozens of medical facilities throughout San Rafael that lie in areas of moderate to high landslide susceptibility, including the Kaiser Permanente San Rafael Medical Center. The Caulbridge School lies predominantly in an area l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-75 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE of extreme landslide susceptibility. Several radio towers throughout San Rafael lie in areas of moderate to extreme landslide susceptibility. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-76 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 584: City of San Rafael Debris Flow Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Source: Marin County OEM l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e • Dams • Mi litary and Civil Defense Installations Communication Facilities Electri c Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities Water Supply Facilities Airports Em ergency Operations Cente rs Marin County / San Rafael Landslide • 0RICI0I EMERGENCY • MANAGEMENT inwood Fire Stations V Hospitals and Medical VI Facilities •vn Police / Sheriff Statio ns •vm Schools •ix Landslide •x Susceptibility Class 0 III 0 ade swee 0 .5 ... 2 Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM_GIS @Mari nCounty.org Date Printed : 11/01/23 6 N County of Marin, (alifornia State Parks, Esri , HERE , Garmin, SafeGraph , Geo Techno logies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS , Bureau of Land Managem ent, EPA, NPS, USDA, DOC/CGS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-77 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE An earthquake has the potential to cause landslides throughout areas of landslide susceptibility in San Rafael. A wildfire and subsequent rain event in any of the open spaces in and around San Rafael, including in the San Pedro Mountain Open Space Preserve, Harry A. Barbier Memorial Park, China Camp State Park and along the border of Lucas Valley and Sleepy Hollow could cause mudslides that could impact adjacent communities. On 3/23/2023, a landslide in the 100 block of Bret Harte Avenue sent trees crashing into power lines. On 3/5/2019, wet weather caused a landslide below Crestview Way, threatening a home. On 2/7/2017, a severe storm caused a mudslide that resulted in a boulder shearing a house in the 300 block of Mountain View Avenue in two. On 1/10/2017, a slide along the 30 block of Glenaire Drive in the Bret Harte neighborhood south of downtown San Rafael sent mud cascading 140 feet down onto three homes. On 1/3–1/5/1982, a severe storm caused a mudslide that collapsed several homes, resulting in fatalities. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Extreme storm events and more frequent wildfires as a result of climate change have the potential to increase the amount and severity of landslides, including disastrous debris flows. Climate change is leading to more volatile precipitation patterns around the world with very dry stretches punctuated by storms that drop large amounts of rain in a short amount of time. Landslides in wetter regions of California, including the Marin County OA, move on average faster and farther downhill during rainy periods compared to drought years, according to a 2022 study by the American Geophysical Union (AGU)36, showing the increased potential for landslides in the Marin County OA in rainy years. As development increases in the numerous canyons and around the many open spaces of the Marin County OA, the potential for significant impacts from a landslide and/or mudflow increases. Further development of the residential areas of San Rafael that have a higher landslide susceptibility will expose more people and property to landslide risk. With increased wildfire potential as a result of climate change, more residents in San Rafael could be susceptible to post-fire debris flows. Future development should take into account the movement of mud and debris in waterways after a major rain event. Adequate space adjacent to susceptible waterways should be maintained free of development to allow for the passage of mud and debris, and catchment basins should be built in these areas to help capture any excess mud and debris. 2.2.2 DROUGHT A drought is a deficiency in precipitation over an extended period, usually a season or more, resulting in a water shortage causing adverse impacts on vegetation, animals, and/or people. It is a normal recurrent feature of climate that occurs in virtually all climate zones, from very wet to very dry. Drought is a temporary aberration from normal climatic conditions and can thus vary significantly from one region to another. Droughts occur slowly, over a multi-year period, and it 36 Landslide Sensitivity and Response to Precipitation Changes in Wet and Dry Climates. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL099499 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-78 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE is often not obvious or easy to quantify when a drought begins and ends. Drought is a complex issue involving many factors—it occurs when a normal amount of moisture is not available to satisfy an area’s usual water-consuming activities. There are several types of drought which can often be defined regionally based on its effects: • Meteorological drought is usually defined by a period of below average water supply, based on the degree of dryness (in comparison to normal or average) and the duration of the dry period. Drought onset generally occurs with a meteorological drought. • Agricultural drought occurs when there is an inadequate water supply to meet the needs of the state’s crops and other agricultural operations such as livestock. Agricultural drought links various characteristics of meteorological (or hydrological) drought to agricultural impacts, focusing on precipitation shortages, soil water deficits, reduced ground water or reservoir levels needed for irrigation. • Hydrological drought is defined as deficiencies in surface and subsurface water supplies. It is generally measured as stream flow, snowpack, and as lake, reservoir, and groundwater levels. Hydrological drought usually occurs following periods of extended precipitation shortfalls. Socioeconomic drought occurs when a drought impacts health, well-being, and quality of life, or when a drought starts to have an adverse economic impact on a region. Drought can occur in all areas of San Rafael, though its effects would be most felt in the mountainous areas around the city where the risk of wildfire would increase. The wetland areas of San Rafael, particularly the marshlands along San Rafael Bay and San Pablo Bay, could become drier during prolonged period of drought and experience marshland fires that could impact local businesses and residences in the area. Dry trees in public open spaces like Harry A. Barbier Memorial Park, Boyd Memorial Park and Jerry Russom Memorial Park can become a safety hazard to the public due to falling limbs or the toppling of the tree itself. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought. Warmer temperatures enhance evaporation, which reduces surface water and dries out soils and vegetation. This makes periods with low precipitation in the summer drier than they would be in cooler conditions. Climate also alters the timing of water availability as warmer winter temperatures cause less precipitation to fall. During droughts, communities in the Marin County OA including San Rafael may have limited access to water for household use, including drinking, cooking, cleaning, and watering plants, as well as for agriculture, transportation, and power generation. Drought may lead to higher water costs, rationing, or even the decimation of important water sources like wells in the Marin County OA. As more people move into the Marin County OA and San Rafael, additional strain will be placed on the OA’s water supply. Drought can affect livestock and crops in the Marin County OA, impacting its economy. Drought can increase the occurrence and severity of wildfires and tree mortality in the Marin County OA including in the open spaces in and around San Rafael. Impacts to residents and infrastructure from wildfire as a result of drought will increase as more development occurs in the mountainous areas of the Marin County OA including San Rafael where wildfires are more likely to occur. Drought also has the potential to dry out the marshlands along the shoreline of San Rafael, increasing the chances of brush fires there. Future development in this area and in the mountainous areas of San Rafael l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-79 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE could expose people to drier summer conditions that could increase their vulnerability to wildfire. Drought also increases the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, including by decreasing land productivity, which reduces the amount of vegetation storing carbon dioxide. In addition, increases in drought-related wildfire and soil erosion can release carbon dioxide sequestered in trees and plants back into the atmosphere. This will only worsen climate change for the Marin County OA into the future. When considering future development, the Marin County OA including San Rafael can help prepare for both future droughts and climate change by practicing and promoting water conservation and enhancing water efficiency throughout landscapes, city plans, and water infrastructure. The Marin County OA can also identify alternative water supplies, create drought emergency plans, and encourage farmers to plant drought-resistant crops. 2.2.3 EARTHQUAKE Earthquakes are sudden rolling or shaking events caused by movement under the earth’s surface. Earthquakes happen along cracks in the earth's surface, called fault lines, and can be felt over large areas, although they usually last less than one minute. The amount of energy released during an earthquake is usually expressed as a magnitude and is currently measured by seismologists on the Moment Magnitude (Mw Scale). The Mw Scale was developed to succeed the previously used Richter Scale and is measured on a scale of zero to ten with increasing values reflecting increasing intensity. The other commonly used measure of earthquake severity is intensity, which is an expression of the amount of shaking at any given location on the ground service. Intensity is most commonly measured on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale (see Figure 34). Figure 585: Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale Source: USGS l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN Intensity Shaking No t felt II Weak Ill Weak IV Li ght V Mo dera t e VI Strong VII Very stro ng Sev ere Violent -Extreme e Descripti on/Damage Not felt exce pt by a very few un der espec ially favorable co nd it io ns. Felt o nly by a few perso ns at rest,es pec ially on up per floors of b uildi ngs . Felt q uite noticeably by perso ns indoors, es peci ally o n upper floo rs o f bui ld ings . Ma ny people do not reco gn ize it as an earthquake. Sta nd ing m otor ca rs m ay roc k slightly. Vibrations simi lar to the pass ing of a truc k. Duratio n est imat ed. Felt ind oo rs by many, o ut doors by few d u ring the d ay. At night, so m e aw akened. Dishes, w indows, doors disturbed; wa lls make crac kin g so und. Se nsa tion like heavy t r uck striking building . St and ing m oto r cars rocked not icea bly. Felt by nea rl y everyo ne; m any awa ke ned. So m e d ishe s, wind ows bro ken. Unsta ble o bj ec t s ove rturn ed. Pendulum cloc ks may stop. Felt by all, many frighte ned . So me heavy furni t ure move d; a fe w insta nces of fa ll en plaste r. Damage slight. Damage negligi ble in bu ildings of good des ign and constructio n; slight to moderat e in we ll-built ordinary structures; co nsid era b le d ama ge in poorl y built or ba d ly des igned stru ctures ; some chimneys broken. Dam age slight in specia lly d esigned st ru ctures; co nsiderable da mage in o rd inary sub st antial bu il dings w it h partial co llapse. Dam age great in poorl y built st r uctures. Fall of chi m neys , facto ry stac ks, co lumns, monuments, wa lls. Heavy f urn itu re overt urned. Damage cons ide rab le in spec ially designed st ru ctures; well-des igned frame structu res thrown o ut o f plumb. Damage grea t in substa ntial buil d ings, w ith partial collapse. Buil d ings shift ed off fou nda tio ns. So m e well-bui lt wooden struc t ures d es t royed; most m aso nry and fra me st ruct u res destroye d w it h fou nda ti o ns. Rails bent. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-80 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 35 gives intensities (measured on the MMI scale) that are typically observed at locations near the epicenter or earthquakes of different magnitudes. Figure 586: Mercalli Scale vs. Magnitude Source: USGS The extent of ground shaking also depends in large part on how soft the underlying soil is. Soft soils amplify ground shaking (see Figure 36). This was observed during the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake when the most significant damages experienced in San Francisco were in the Marina District, which was built on fill. Figure 587: Soil Types Source: USGS l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN Soil Vs> type 1500 A m/sec 1500 Soil ty pe m /sec> Vs> 750 B m /sec 750 Soil Ty pe m /sec> Vs> 350 C m /sec 350 Soil Ty pe m /sec> Vs> 200 D m /sec Soil 200 Ty pe m /sec> E Vs e Richter Typical Maximum Magnitude Scale Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale 1.0-2.9 I 3.0-3.9 11-111 4.0-4.9 IV-V 5.0-5.9 VI-VII 6.0-6.9 VII-IX 7.0 or hi g her VIII or hig her Includes unwea t hered intrusive igneous rock . Occurs infrequently i n t he bay area. We consider it with type B (both A and Bare represented by the color b lu e on the map). Soil types A and B do not contri bute greatly to shaking amplification. Includes volcanics, most Mesozoic bedrock, and some Franciscan bedrock. (Mesozoic rocks are between 245 and 64 million years old . The Franciscan Complex is a Mesozoic un it that is common in the Bay Area .) Includes some Quaternary (less than 1.8 million years old ) sands, sandstones and mudstones, some Upper Tertiary (1 .8 to 24 million years old) sandstones, mudstones and limestone, some Lower Tert iary (24 to 64 m i llion years o ld ) mudstones and sandstones, and Franciscan melange and serpentinite. Includes some Quaternary muds, sands, gravels, si lts and mud . Significant amplification of shaking by these soils is gene rally expected. Includes water-saturated mud and artifici a l fi l l. T he strongest amplification of shak i ng due i s expected fo r this soil type. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-81 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE An earthquake fault is defined as “a fracture or fracture zone in the earth’s crust along which there has been displacement of the sides relative to one another.” For the purpose of planning there are two types of faults, active and inactive. Active faults have experienced displacement in historic time, suggesting that future displacement may be expected. Inactive faults show no evidence of movement in recent geologic time, suggesting that these faults are dormant. Two types of fault movement represent possible hazards to structures in the immediate vicinity of the fault: fault creep and sudden fault displacement. Fault creep, a slow movement of one side of a fault relative to the other, can cause cracking and buckling of sidewalks and foundations even without perceptible ground shaking. Sudden fault displacement occurs during an earthquake event and may result in the collapse of buildings or other structures that are found along the fault zone when fault displacement exceeds an inch or two. The only protection against damage caused directly by fault displacement is to prohibit construction in the fault zone. An earthquake could occur anywhere in and around San Rafael due to the number of active faults within and near the Marin County OA. Earthquake Shake Intensity The colors on Figures 32 and 33 represent the level of ground shaking intensity of a potential future earthquake. The result is expressed as the level of ground shaking (expressed as a percentage of gravity) that on average occurs every 500 years. This map shows the expected relative intensity of ground shaking and damage in California from anticipated future earthquakes. The shaking potential is calculated as the level of ground motion that has a 2% chance of being exceeded in 50 years, which is the same as the level of ground-shaking with about a 2500 year average repeat time. The relatively long-period (1.0 second) earthquake shaking is shown here. Long period-shaking affects tall, relatively flexible buildings, but also correlates well with overall earthquake damage. Earthquake Shaking Potential Maps for California depict expected intermediate period (1s or 1hz) ground motions with 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-82 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 588: Marin County OA Earthquake Impact and Fault Lines Source: Marin County OEM l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN ( \ \--~ I I \ \ / / \ \ \ \ \ \ \ ! I I I I I I I I I / e Legend EarthquakeShaking --0.45 -0 .55 -0 .65 0 .75 --0 .85 --0 .95 - -1.05 1.15 1.25 1.35 1.45 1.55 1.65 1.75 1.85 1.95 Marin County Earthquake Petaluma 0 omc101 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Boyes Hot Springs El Verano Sonoma ~an Pablo Bay W•ldlif Area /' C•/ ,.,,-~-,,r,-........ ---'-10 Mi les Marin Co unty OEM / Woody Baker-Coh n email: OEM_G I S@MarinCounty.o rg Date Pr inted : 10/07/23 County of Marin, California State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmi n, SafeGra ph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bu reau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA, County of Marin, California State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garm in , SafeGraph, FAO, METI /N ASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA , NPS 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-83 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE San Rafael is located directly between the San Andreas and Hayward faults. A moderate to extreme earthquake originating from either of these major faults or any of the other faults in the region could have major impacts to the City. There is increased risk of shaking and liquefaction throughout San Rafael from an earthquake, particularly in the southern area of the city downtown and along the Highway 101 corridor; the area south of China Camp State Park; the northern area of the city along Manuel T. Freitas Parkway and the Highway 101 corridor, and areas along Galinas Creek and the South Fork of Galinas Creek. These areas include the primary commercial areas of the City including downtown, and numerous residential neighborhoods with thousands of residences. Nearly all of the city’s critical facilities lie in areas of moderate earthquake shaking potential with the exception of the Marin County Civic Center, the San Rafael Fire Station #53 and several medical facilities. Vulnerable structures include bridges and older buildings that have not undergone major seismic retrofitting. Utility infrastructure throughout the City could be impacted by an earthquake. Most of Highway 101 that runs through the City lies in an area of moderate earthquake shaking potential. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-84 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 589: City of San Rafael Earthquake Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Source: Marin County OEM l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e Marin County / San Rafael Earthquake • 0FIICI0F ~ ✓: ~ EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT • • 1r,w oc e '!i,e Ter ra L111a ,e San Anselmo Dams Military and Civil Defen se Installations Communication Faciliti es El ectric Power Fa ci lities Wastewater Facilities Water Supply Fa cilities Airports Em ergency Operations Centers & ii& Legend Fire Stations Hospital s and Medical Facilities Police / Sheriff Stations Schoo ls EarthquakeShaking 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 -0.85 -0.95 -1.05 -1.15 -1.25 -1.35 -1.45 -1.55 -1.65 -1.75 1.85 1.95 0 ade E, 0 .5 2 Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM _GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Printed: 11/01/23 ~ N County of Marin, California State Parks, Esri, HERE , Garmin, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI /NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-85 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Earthquakes could also cause landslides in the open space areas in and surrounding San Rafael with steeper terrain, causing damage to homes and roads as a result of shifting soils. San Rafael hasn’t yet experienced a significant earthquake. The Marin County OA was sparsely populated at the time of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, and the effects across the County were relatively minimal. Likewise, the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake caused minimal impacts across the Marin County OA as the epicenter of the quake was further south in Santa Cruz County. Smaller earthquakes with minimal to no impacts are routinely felt in San Rafael. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations There is no direct link between climate change and seismic activity that could impact the Marin County OA including San Rafael, so climate change is not expected to cause any changes to the frequency or intensity of seismic shaking. According to a 2018 study by the Institute of Physics (IOP)37, climate change could result in “isostatic rebounds,” or a sudden upward movement of the crust because of reduced downward weight caused by glaciers. As glaciers are known to melt when overall global temperatures increase, climate change could indirectly lead to an increase in seismicity in the Marin County OA including San Rafael. Climate change could also impact earthquakes felt in the Marin County OA as droughts can further deteriorate existing fault lines and pumping groundwater can put further pressure on the earth’s crust. Future development in the populated areas of Marin County OA where seismic shaking and subsidence are more prevalent could exacerbate the impacts of an earthquake. This includes the lowlands of San Rafael, where the risk of subsidence and subsequent earthquake shaking are higher. Future development in these areas could expose more people and infrastructure to earthquake shaking as a result of climate change. 2.2.4 FLOODING Flooding is the rising and overflowing of a body of water onto normally dry land. Floods are among the costliest natural disasters in terms of human hardship and economic loss nationwide. The area adjacent to a channel is the floodplain. Floodplains are illustrated on inundation maps, which show areas of potential flooding and water depths. In its common usage, the floodplain most often refers to that area that is inundated by the 100-yea r flood, the flood that has a one percent chance in any given year of being equaled or exceeded. The 100-year flood is the national minimum standard to which communities regulate their floodplains through the National Flood Insurance Program. The 200-year flood is one that has 0.5% chance of being equaled or exceeded each year. The 500-year flood is the flood that has a 0.2 percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year. The potential for flooding can change and increase through various land use changes and changes to land surface, which result in a change to the floodplain. A change in environment can create localized flooding problems inside and outside of natural floodplains by altering or confining natural drainage channels. These changes are most often created by human activity such as construction of bridges or channels. In areas where flow contains high sediment load, such as Easkoot Creek in Stinson Beach (due to an active landslide upstream), the flow carrying capacity of the channel may be reduced dramatically during a single flood event. Coastal floodplains may also change over time as waves and currents alter the coastline (especially wetlands) and sea levels rise. 37 An Enhanced Seismic Activity Observed Due to Climate Change: Preliminary Results from Alaska. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/167/1/012018 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-86 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Flooding can occur in several ways: Riverine flooding – Riverine flooding, defined as when a watercourse exceeds its “bank-full” capacity, generally occurs as a result of prolonged rainfall, or rainfall that is combined with snowmelt and/or already saturated soils from previous rain events. This type of flood occurs in river systems whose tributaries may drain large geographic areas and include one or more independent river basins. The onset and duration of riverine floods may vary from a few hours to many days and is often characterized by high peak flows combined with a large volume of runoff. Factors that directly affect the amount of flood runoff include precipitation amount, intensity and distribution, the amount of soil moisture, seasonal variation in vegetation, snow depth, and water-resistance of the surface due to urbanization. In the Marin County OA, riverine flooding can occur anytime from November through April and is largely caused by heavy and continued rains, sometimes combined with snowmelt, increased outflows from upstream dams, and heavy flow from tributary streams. These intense storms can overwhelm the local waterways as well as the integrity of flood control structures. Flooding is more severe when antecedent rainfall has resulted in saturated ground conditions. The warning time associated with slow rise riverine floods assists in life and property protection. Flash flooding – Flash flooding describes localized floods of great volume and short duration. This type of flood usually results from a heavy rainfall on a relatively small drainage area. Precipitation of this sort usually occurs in the winter and spring. Flash floods often require immediate evacuation within the hour and thus early threat identification and warning is critical for saving lives. Localized/Stormwater flooding – Localized flooding problems are often caused by flash flooding, severe weather, or an unusual amount of rainfall. Flooding from these intense weather events usually occurs in areas experiencing an increase in runoff from impervious surfaces associated with development and urbanization as well as inadequate storm drainage systems. Tidal flooding – Tidal flooding develops when high tides exceed either the top of bank elevation of tidal sloughs and channels, or the crest of bay levees. An especially high tide event that occurs during alignment of the gravitational pull between the sun and the moon, causing tidal water levels to rise to higher-than normal levels. King tides are normal, predictable events that occur semi-annually during winter months. Typically storms in which high tides coincide with peak stormwater flow are the most damaging. The area is also at risk of flooding resulting from levee failures and dam failures. Dam failure flooding is discussed separately in the Dam Failure Section of this document; levee failure flooding is discussed separately in the Levee Failure Section of this document. Regardless of the type of flood, the cause is often the result of severe weather and excessive rainfall, either in the flood area or upstream reach. A weather pattern called the “Atmospheric River” contributes to the flooding potential of the area. An Atmospheric River brings warm air and rain to the West. A relatively common weather pattern brings southwest winds to the Pacific Northwest or California, along with warm, moist air. The moisture sometimes produces many days of heavy rain, which can cause extensive flooding. The warm air also can melt the snowpack in the mountains, which further aggravates the flooding potential. In the colder parts of the year, the warm air can be cooled enough to produce heavy, upslope snow as it rises into the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada or l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-87 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Cascades. Forecasters and others on the West Coast often used to refer to this warm, moist air as the “Pineapple Express” because it comes from around Hawaii where pineapples are grown. A diagram of an atmospheric river event is shown in Figure 39. Figure 590: Diagram of an Atmospheric River Event Source: NOAA The Marin County OA is susceptible to various types of flood events. In coastal areas, flooding may occur when strong winds or tides result in a surge of seawater into areas that are above the normal high tide line. Other types of flooding in Marin include isolated ponding and stormwater overflow. Isolated ponding is when pools form on the ground and can occur in any area that doesn’t drain effectively – for example, in a natural depression in the landscape. Stormwater overflow is when storm drains back up. Stormwater drainage systems quickly convey rainwater through underground pipes to creeks and the Bay. When the stormdrains are obstructed or broken or when the water bodies to which they lead to are already full, water backs up onto the streets. Although stormwater overflow and isolated ponding also occur throughout the County, the effects are typically not widespread or significantly damaging. Flooding in San Rafael generally results from a combination of high tides from San Rafael Bay and San Pablo Bay and creek flooding Gallinas Creek, the South Fork of Galinas Creek and San Rafael Creek in low-lying areas. Local flooding in San Rafael is exacerbated where the storm water drainage network has inadequate capacity for peak flows. Most of the lowland areas in San Rafael are in the 100-year floodplain, with several areas in the 500-year floodplain. The 100-year floodplain extends mostly along the Highway 101 corridor south of San Rafael Creek for three miles between Gallinas Creek and the South Fork of Gallinas Creek east of Highway 101, and north of Point San Pedro around the San Pedro Lagoon and the Peacock Gap Golf Country Club. This area include part of downtown, hundreds of homes, numerous commercial buildings and shopping plazas, several medical facilities, the Golden Gate, Bridge and Transportation District Emergency Operations Center, the Central Marin Sanitary Agency Wastewater Treatment Plant, a Pacific Gas and Electric yard, the San l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN The science behind atmospheric rivers M-,pt,,,;c (Alli;,. ~ing<$.lm"..C .....r..-...<1 ,.,i:., "'"°' .,tt.o .. ~ • .....,..,..1a1o1or~ iigw"<.., _, o1,.;~,ond ,_ ~ 11\tll,e\\'~, ... n Wnltod St~ M\on ,,1&,,,..,.. lnllllld .lfldillffP -•'lhe ,_"' IN,..,, ..... ""'.-....i (od!I to<r .. l~~-t-. n.:..91,m,nyAA, or•->)"l""' Iha! ~l1P'°"""' benolv:i.,I ,.., Cl ,.,...,...,..,ollh, l•!I"(. more p<liltil .. AA,..., =•1>,eitJ<III0<...,•11 arid l'<>od!, c~ ,;I diirupt,g ~ lndU<ln9 """'1llcl~...-.d-""'1 •'"'1,q,lw; d.!<ru9f w I and-,y.--•~to lea,rnm;,, 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-88 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Rafael Fire Station #54, the Bahia Vista School, the Davidson Middle School, the San Rafael Fire Station #52, part of the San Rafael High School, the San Rafael Fire Station #55, the Smith Ranch Airport, and nine of the ten pump stations in the Marin Lagoon that could be susceptible to flooding. Approximately three miles of Highway 101 and the SMART railroad tracks lie in the 100 -year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding, presenting transportation challenges for the city. Approximately two miles of San Pedro Road lies in the 100-year floodplain and could be susceptible to flooding, effecting ingress and egress to communities north of Point San Pedro. The 500-year floodplain primarily extends west and north of the 100-year floodplain along San Rafael Creek and west of the 100-year floodplain along Gallinas Creek and the South Fork of Gallinas Creek. This area consists of most of downtown; part of the San Rafael transit center and train station, hundreds of homes and numerous commercial buildings and medical facilities; Laurel Dell Elementary School, Coleman Elementary School, the All Children Academics School; part of the San Rafael High School, Raphael School, Sun Valley Elementary School, the Marin Academy and the Star Academy; the Civic Center North Pump Station, the John Duckett Pump Station, the Northgate Industrial Park Pump Station, all six of the Captain Cove Pump Stations, and the Marin Emergency Radio Authority antenna site that could be susceptible to flooding. A large section of the 500-year floodplain lies north of downtown and extends along several hundred feet of Highway 101, including the SMART railroad tracks which could be susceptible to flooding. The San Rafael City Hall and the Marin County Civic Center lie outside of the 100 and 500-year floodplains, though access may be hindered due to area flooding. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-89 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 591: City of San Rafael Flooding Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Source: Marin County OEM l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e San Anselmo San I-' elmo Legend • Dams Military and Civil • Defense Installations Communication Facilities Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities Marin County / San Rafael Flooding inwood Emergency Operations Centers Fire Stations Hospitals and Medica l Facilities Police / Sher iff Stations Schools idera • 0IIICI0I EMERGENCY • MANAGEMENT 2 Miles • Water Supply Facilitie s Flooding 0 Cqrte Made Meddowswe• 6 Airports -500 Year Flood Plain 100 Year Flood Plain \ Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM _GIS @M arinCounty.org Date Printed: 11/01/23 N County of Marin , Ca lifornia State Parks , Esri, HERE , Ga rmin , SafeGraph, GeoTechnolog ies, Inc, METI/NASA , USGS , Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-90 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 31 shows the number of City of San Rafael critical facilities by flood zone. Table 31: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities in the Flood Zones Category Name Address Flood Zone Critical Facilities Fire Fire: Marinwood Fire Department (MRW) / Headquarters & Station 58 777 Miller Creek Road 94903 AE Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 51 1039 C Street 94901 X Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 52 210 Third Street 94901 X Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 54 46 Castro Avenue 94901 AE Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 55 955 Pt. San Pedro Road 94901 AE Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 56 650 Del Ganado Road 94903 X Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 57 3530 Civic Center Drive 94903 X , AE Fire Fire: Skywalker Ranch Fire Brigade (SKY) 5858 Lucas Valley Road 94912 X Fire Fire: San Rafael Fire Department (SNR) / Station 53 30 Joseph Court 94903 X Law County Jail 13 Peter Behr Dr, San Rafael, CA 94903 X Law County 911 Communications Center / PSAP 1600 Los Gamos Drive, Suite 200. San Rafael, CA 94903 X Law Marin County Sheriffs Office 1600 Los Gamos Drive, Suite 200. San Rafael, CA 94903 X Law San Rafael Police Department 1400 Fifth Avenue, San Rafael, CA 94901 X EOC Marin County EOC 1600 Los Gamos Drive, Suite 200. San Rafael, CA 94903 X Local Government Marin Civic Center 3501 Civic Center Dr, San Rafael, CA 94903 X Local Government Marin County Corporate Yard Building 2 Peter Behr Drive, San Rafael, CA 94903 X Local Government Marin County Fuel Island 2 - 6 Peter Behr Drive, San Rafael, CA 94903 X Local Government Marin County Vehicle Repair Shops/Building 2 - 6 Peter Behr Drive, San Rafael, CA 94903 X Local Government Boro Community Center 50 Canal Street, San Rafael, CA 94901 AE Local Government San Rafael Public Works Yard 111 Morphew St, San Rafael, CA 94901 X Local Government San Rafael Community Center 618 B Street, San Rafael CA 94901 AH, AE Local Government Terra Linda Community Center 670 Del Ganado Rd, San Rafael CA 94903 X Health / Medical Kaiser Permanente San Rafael Medical Center 99 Montecillo Rd, San Rafael, CA 94903 X Health / Medical Adrian Way Home 306 Adrian Way San Rafael, Ca 94903 AE Health / Medical Aldersly (Snf Unit) 326 Mission Ave 94901 X Health / Medical Casa Allegra - Devon Drive Home 363 Devon Dr 94903 X l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-91 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 31: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities in the Flood Zones Category Name Address Flood Zone Health / Medical Kaiser Foundation Hospital - San Rafael 99 Montecillo Rd 94903 X Health / Medical Smith Ranch Generations (Snf) 1550 Silveira Pkwy 94903 X Health / Medical Northgate Post Acute 40 Professional Center Pkwy 94903 X Health / Medical Nova House, Inc. 393 Nova Albion Way 94903 X Health / Medical Aldersly (Snf Unit) 326 Mission Ave 94901 X Health / Medical Pine Ridge Care Center 45 Professional Center Pkwy 94903 X Health / Medical Professional Post Acute Center 81 Professional Center Pkwy 94903 X Health / Medical Marin Post Acute 234 N San Pedro Rd 94903 X Health / Medical San Rafael 5th Avenue Health & Wellness 1601 5Th Ave 94901 X Health / Medical Sunrise Ii 48 Golden Hinde Blvd 94903 X Health / Medical Villa Marin (Rcfe Unit) 100 Thorndale Dr 94903 X Health / Medical Three Home Village 1, 2, 3 675 Rosal Way, San Rafael, Ca 94903 AE Health / Medical Almavia Of San Rafael 515 Northgate Drive, San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical Nazareth House Of San Rafael, Inc. 245 Nova Albion Way, San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical Drake Terrace 275 Los Ranchitos Road, San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical Cogir Memory Care 111 Merrydale Rd, San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical Greenwood Assisted Living 233 West End Ave, San Rafael, Ca 94901 X Health / Medical St. Michael's Extended Care 416 4th Street, San Rafael, Ca 94901 AE, X Health / Medical Golden Home Extended Care, Inc. 1234 Las Gallinas Ave, San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical All Saints Extended Care Inc 1373 Lincoln Ave., San Rafael, Ca 94901 X Health / Medical D Street Residential Support Services 527 D Street, San Rafael, Ca 94901 X Health / Medical Schon Hyme Rest Home 25 Villa Avenue, San Rafael, Ca 94901 X Health / Medical A Loving Touch 45 Meriam Drive 94903 X Health / Medical Smith Ranch Homes (Independent Living) 500 Deer Valley Road 94903 X Health / Medical Luna's Home 1027 Las Pavadas Ave 94903 X Health / Medical Aldersly (Al) (Rcfe Unit) 326 Mission Ave 94901 X Health / Medical Smith Ranch Skilled Nursing And Rehabilitation Center 1550 Silveira Parkway 94903 X Health / Medical Villa Marin (Snf) 100 Thorndale Dr 94903 X l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-92 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 31: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities in the Flood Zones Category Name Address Flood Zone Health / Medical Dominican Sisters Of San Rafael 1520 Grand Avenue 94901 X Health / Medical St. Vincent's School For Boys 1 St Vincent's Drive, 94903 X, A, AE Health / Medical Lighthouse 714 C Street, San Rafael 94901 AH Health / Medical Casa Allegra - Adrian House 306 Adrian Way, San Rafael AE Health / Medical Long Life Living #1 36 Mt Foraker Drive, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Dominican Convent - Lourdes Site 77 Locust Ave, San Rafael, 94901 X Health / Medical Dominican Convent - Jane D'anza Site 1540 Grand Ave, San Rafael 94901 X Health / Medical Helen Vine Detox Center 291 Smith Ranch Rd, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Lifehouse Sunrise Ii 48 Golden Hinde Blvd, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Bayside Marin Treatment Center 718 4th Street, San Rafael 94901 X Health / Medical Caremax Peachstone Residence 440 Peachstone Terrace, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Center Point - The Manor 603 D Street, San Rafael 94901 AE Health / Medical Casa Allegra - Happy House 291 Devon Dr, San Rafael, Ca 94901 X Health / Medical Bay Home Inc. 19 Heatherstone Court, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Marin Services For Men 501 Whitewood Drive, San Rafael, 94903 X Health / Medical Castle SLE 1363 Lincoln Ave #4, San Rafael, CA 94901 X Health / Medical Villa Marin (Il) 100 Thorndale Dr 94903 X Health / Medical Parnow Friendship House 164 North San Pedro Road, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Lifehouse - Knoll Rd 18 Professional Center Parkway, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Newport Academy 5 Maoli Dr, San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical Helen Vine San Rafael House 235 Union Street. San Rafael, Ca 94901 X Health / Medical L'chaim House I 777 Montcillo Rd, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Long Life Living #3 57 Vallejo Way, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical L'chaim House II 463 Albion Way, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Lifehouse - Nova 93 Nova Albion Way, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Tender Residential Home 257 Blackstone Dr, San Rafael 94903 X Health / Medical Aldersly (Il Unit) 326 Mission Ave 94901 X Health / Medical Buckelew Mariner Circle 6 Mariner Circle, San Rafael AE l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-93 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 31: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities in the Flood Zones Category Name Address Flood Zone Health / Medical Buckelew - Avanti 7 Le Claire Ct, San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical Casa Allegra - 980 Ignacio 35 Mitchell Blvd #8, San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical Lifehouse - 1600 Vendola Drive 1600 Vendola Dr, San Rafael, Ca 94903 AE Health / Medical Lifehouse (Supportive Living - Various Sites) 18 Professional Center Parkway, San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical Casa Allegra - Reichert Ave 35 Mitchell Blvd. Suite 8 San Rafael, Ca 94903 X Health / Medical Marin Health & Wellness Campus 3253 Kerner Blvd, San Rafael, CA 94901 AE Health / Medical Kaiser Permanente Downtown San Rafael Medical Offices 1033 3rd St, San Rafael, CA 94901 AH, X Health / Medical Marin Community Clinic 3110 Kerner Boulevard, San Rafael, CA AE Health / Medical Kaiser Permanente San Rafael Medical Offices 1650 Los Gamos Dr., San Rafael, CA 94903 X Health / Medical MarinHealth Urgent Care 4000 Civic Center Dr, San Rafael, CA 94903 X School Dominican University 50 Acacia Avenue San Rafael, CA 94901 X School Bahia Vista Elementary 125 Bahia Vista, San Rafael CA 94901 AE School Coleman Elementary 800 Belle Ave. San Rafael, CA 94901 X School Glenwood Elementary 25 West Castlewood San Rafael, CA 94901 X, AE School Laurel Dell Elementary 225 Woodland Ave. San Rafael, CA 94901 X School San Pedro Elementary 498 Point San Pedro San Rafael, CA 94901 X School Sun Valley Elementary 75 Happy Lane San Rafael, CA 94901 X School Vallecito School 50 Nova Albion Way, San Rafael CA 94903 X School Venetia Valley TK-8 177 N. San Pedro Rd. San Rafael, CA 94903 X School Davidson Middle 280 Woodland Ave. San Rafael, CA 94901 X, AE School San Rafael High 150 Third Street San Rafael, CA 94901 X School Terra Linda High 320 Nova Albion Way San Rafael, CA 94903 X School Madrone High 185 Mission Ave. San Rafael, CA 94901 AE, X Airport/ Heliport San Rafael - Airport 400 Smith Ranch Rd, San Rafael, CA 94903 AE High Potential Loss Facilities Critical Infrastructure Water/Wastew ater Central Marin Sanitation & Household Hazardous Waste Facility 1301 Andersen Drive, San Rafael, CA 94901 AE, X Communications MERA Antenna Site - Dollar Hill Robert Dollar Dr., San Rafael, CA X Communications MERA Antenna Site - EOF 1600 Los Gamos Dr 94903 X l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-94 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 31: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities in the Flood Zones Category Name Address Flood Zone Communications MERA Antenna Site - Forbes Hill Hepburn Heights Rd, San Rafael, CA X Communications MERA Antenna Site - Marin County Radio Shop X Communications MERA Antenna Site - San Pedro Ridge Site Mayhills Rd. San Rafael, CA X Power Utility PG&E Substation - Las Gallinas 125 N Redwood Dr., San Rafael, CA 94903 X Power Utility PG&E Substation - San Rafael 2nd St, San Rafael, CA 94901 AH Transportation Marin Transit 711 Grand Ave, San Rafael, CA 94901 AE Transportation Golden Gate Transit: Transit Center Customer Service Center 850 Tamalpais San Rafael, CA 94901 AH Transportation Golden Gate Transit: EOC, Dispatch, Fuel, IT 1011 Andersen Dr., San Rafael, CA 94901 AE Transportation San Rafael Transportation Center (SMART Train & central bus station) 3rd & Hetherton, San Rafael, CA, 94901 AH, X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station - Piombo LAT: 37.96 LON: -122.49 AE Communications MERA Antenna Site - Mt Burdell 38.1449, -122.5941 X Communications MERA Antenna Site – Big Rock Ridge 38.0591, -122.6039 X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – San Quentin LAT: 37.96 LON: -122.49 VE Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Cayes LAT: 37.96 LON: -122.49 AE Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Kerner LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.50 AE Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – 400 Canal LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.51 X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Rossi LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.51 X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station- Montecito LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.52 X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – North Francisco LAT: 37.97 LON: - 122.52 AE Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Corporate Center LAT: 37.97 LON: -122.52 nN?A Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Lindaro LAT: 37.97 Lon: - 122.53 AH Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Glenwood LAT: 37.98 Lon: - 122.48 X Pump Station San Rafael Stormwater Pump Station – Peacock LAT: 37.98 Lon: - 122.47 X, AE Table 304: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities in the Flood Zones Source: County of Marin/FEMA DFIRM Floodwaters can be deep enough to drown people and move fast enough to sweep people and vehicles away, lift buildings off foundations, and carry debris that smashes into buildings and other property. Flood waters can cause significant erosion which can lead to slope instability, severely damaging transportation and utility infrastructure by undermining foundations or washing away pavement. If water levels rise high enough to get inside buildings, flooding can cause extensive damage to personal property and the structure itself. Flood events that l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-95 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE develop very quickly are especially dangerous because there may be little advance warning. Flooding may occur when strong winds or tides result in a surge of seawater into areas that are above the normal high tide line. Tide elevations within San Pablo Bay and San Rafael Bay have the potential to significantly impact the San Rafael storm drain system. San Rafael already sees flooding from king tides in San Pablo Bay and San Rafael Bay and this is only expected to increase with sea level rise and climate change. On 1/9/2023, roads feeding into Highway 101 were flooded in San Rafael after a winter storm. On 10/24/2021, widespread flooding occurred in San Rafael as a result of an atmospheric river event. Many roadways were under two feet of water and were impassable. Downtown flooding was focused in the area east of A Street. Road closures were in place around 2nd and 3rd street from A street to the freeway onramp. Several power outages impacted some traffic signals and pump stations in the city. The flooding worsened due to high tide. Figure 592: City of San Rafael Flooding – 10/21/2021 Source: City of San Rafael On 2/12-2/13/2019, a storm dumped 4.45 inches of rain in San Rafael causing localized flooding. Flooding was reported in the Contempo Marin neighborhood, and Lucas Valley Road was closed at the Highway 101 underpass toward Smith Ranch Road after rainwater began to pool and flood the road.. The closure caused traffic delays on nearby city routes as morning drivers sought access to Highway 101. Power was out into the afternoon to signal lights in the Northgate mall area, and the Northgate One shopping complex was without power. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-96 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change is expected to affect California's precipitation patterns, which are likely to influence future flood events. A 2017 study38 found that the number of very intense precipitation days in California is projected to more than double by the end of the century, increasing 117 percent, making it likely that flood events will become more frequent in the Marin County OA including San Rafael. Climate change is expected to alter rainfall patterns in Northern California, including the Marin County OA. As the climate warms, rain events are predicted to become more intense. The Marin County OA including San Rafael will likely experience more rain inundation events that lead to flooding and increase the potential threat of levee failure, tree mortality, and other potential hazards. Sea level rise as a result of climate change will exacerbate the impacts of tidal flooding in the lowland areas of the Marin County OA including the shoreline areas of San Rafael. Future development in these areas will expose more people and infrastructure to the effects of flooding. Development in the marshland areas of San Rafael would expose additional people and infrastructure to flooding as marshlands act as a natural buffer to storm surge. Development along San Rafael Creek, Gallinas Creek, and the South Fork of Gallinas Creek would expose more people, structures and infrastructure including major roads to creek flooding and storm surge as a result of climate change. Climate change could lead to worse flooding impacts in the downtown area including roads that feed onto Highway 101. 2.2.5 LAND SUBSIDENCE/SINKHOLES Land subsidence is a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth's surface owing to subsurface movement of earth materials. The principal causes are aquifer-system compaction, drainage of organic soils through groundwater pumping, underground mining, hydro- compaction, natural compaction, sinkholes, and thawing permafrost. More than 80 percent of the identified subsidence in the United States is a consequence of underground water exploitation. The increasing development of land and water resources threatens to exacerbate existing land-subsidence problems and initiate new ones. Sinkholes can form in three primary ways. Dissolution sinkholes form when dissolution of the limestone or dolomite is most intensive where the water first contacts the rock surface. Aggressive dissolution also occurs where flow is focused in preexisting openings in the rock, such as along joints, fractures, and bedding planes, and in the zone of water-table fluctuation where groundwater is in contact with the atmosphere. See Figure 42 for a picture and description of how dissolution sinkholes form. 38 Precipitation in a Warming World: Assessing Projected Hydro-Climate Changes in California and other Mediterranean Regaions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11285-y l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-97 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 593: Dissolution Sinkhole Formation Source: USGS Cover-subsidence sinkholes tend to develop gradually where the covering sediments are permeable and contain sand. In areas where cover material is thicker, or sediments contain more clay, cover-subsidence sinkholes are relatively uncommon, are smaller, and may go undetected for long periods. See Figure 43 for a picture and description of how cover- subsidence sinkholes form. Figure 594: Cover-Subsidence Sinkhole Formation Source: USGS Cover-collapse sinkholes may develop abruptly over a period of hours and cause catastrophic damages. They occur where the covering sediments contain a significant amount of clay. Over time, surface drainage, erosion, and deposition of sediment transform the steep-walled sinkhole into a shallower bowl-shaped depression. See Figure 44 for a picture and description of how cover-collapse sinkholes form. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e Thin overb urde n Rai n Ra infal l an d surface water pe rcol ate through joints in the limestone. Disso lved carbonate rock is carried away from the surface and a sm all depress ion gradua lly forms . Pond On ex posed carbonate surfaces, a depress ion may focus surface drainage, accelerat in g the d isso lution process. Debris carried into the deve loping sinkhole may plug the outfiow, pond ing water and creating wetlands. ___} r---.--- Granul ar se diments spall into secondary openings in the underlying carbonate roc ks. -'dverb'ur~en · •. : : • . . ' .. A column of overlying sedi- ments settles into the vacated spaces ( a process termed "piping"). . ... : .. Dissolution and infilling con- tinue, forming a noticable depressi o n in the land surface. . . . . . . -·~- The slow downward erosi on eventually forms small sur- face depressions I in ch to se veral feet in depth and diamete r. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-98 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 595: Cover-Collapse Sinkhole Formation Source: USGS New sinkholes have been correlated to land-use practices, especially from groundwater pumping and from construction and development practices that cause land subsidence. Sinkholes can also form when natural water-drainage patterns are changed and new water- diversion systems are developed. Some sinkholes form when the land surface is changed, such as when industrial and runoff-storage ponds are created. The substantial weight of the new material can trigger an underground collapse of supporting material, thus causing a sinkhole. The overburden sediments that cover buried cavities in the aquifer systems are delicately balanced by groundwater fluid pressure. The water below ground helps to keep the surface soil in place. Groundwater pumping for urban water supply and for irrigation can produce new sinkholes in sinkhole-prone areas. If pumping results in a lowering of groundwater levels, then underground structural failure, and thus, sinkholes, can occur. Land subsidence and sinkholes would most likely occur in the lowland areas of San Rafael where superficial deposits and fill are more prevalent, particularly in and around marshland bordering San Rafael Bay and San Pablo Bay. The downtown area, the primary commercial areas of the city along the Highway 101 corridor, and numerous residential neighborhoods with schools and other critical facilities are at increased risk of land subsidence. Land subsidence could have numerous impacts for San Rafael, including the settling of businesses and homes as well as the shifting of roadways and utility infrastructure that run through the city. On 1/2016, a sinkhole formed at the Rotary Manor Senior Community as a result of a collapsed culvert that fed into San Rafael Creek. The complex garden was destroyed when the sinkhole appeared. There have been no major sinkholes in San Rafael since the last plan update. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change could indirectly influence land subsidence as more severe and prolonged periods of drought may encourage more groundwater withdrawals. In coastal areas like the Marin County OA including San Rafael, land subsidence leads to higher sea levels and increased flood risk. The rate of land subsidence could increase across the Marin County OA including the lowland areas of San Rafael as a result of climate change. The impacts of land subsidence on infrastructure, including roads and underground utilities, in San Rafael could l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e Sed im ents spall into a cavity. As spa lling continues, the cohes ive covering sed i- me nts form a structura l arch. T he cav ity m igrates up- ward by progress ive roof coll apse. T he cav ity eventually breaches the ground sur- face, creating sudden and dramatic sinkholes. 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-99 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE increase with future development in the lowland populated areas of the city where land subsidence is more likely to occur. 2.2.6 LEVEE FAILURE Levee failure is the overtopping, breach or collapse of the levee. Levees can fail in the event of an earthquake, internal erosion, poor engineering/construction or landslides, but levees most commonly fail as a result of significant rainfall or very high tides. During a period of heavy rainfall, the water on the water-body side of the levee can build up and either flow over the top (“overtopping”) or put pressure on the structure causing quickening seepage and subsequent erosion of the earth. The overflow of water washes away the top portion of the levee, creating deep grooves. Eventually the levee weakens, resulting in a breach or collapse of the levee wall and the release of uncontrollable amounts of water. Figure 45 shows a levee and the multiple ways it can fail. Figure 596: Levee Failure Mechanisms Source: University of California San Rafael is protected by non-accredited levees along the Santa Venitia Marsh, Gallinas Creek, the South Fork of Gallinas Creek, San Rafael Creek, and San Rafael Bay. The Marin County Levee 22 along the Santa Venitia Marsh is 3.79 miles long with an undocumented height. Approximately five people and one building with a property value of approximately $190 thousand are a risk of failure of the Marin County Levee 22. The Smith Ranch Levee lies between Gallinas Creek and the South Fork of Galinas Creek and is 2.26 miles long with an undocumented height. Approximately 1,308 people and 211 buildings with a property value of $104 million are at risk of failure of the Smith Ranch Levee, including the Smith Ranch Airport. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e Levee cres t Anatomy of a levee 1 a. Overtoppi ng 1 b. Overtopping/Jetting 2. Inter nal Eros ionfPiping 3. Surface Eros ion 4.Slid i ng S. Wave Impacts 6. Structural Impacts 7. Liquefaction 8. Pip ing of substratum 9 . Tree damage 1 0. Slope failu r e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-100 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE The Marin County Levee 3 lies along the South Fork of Gallinas Creek and is 0.9 miles long with an undocumented height. Approximately 501 people and 224 buildings with a property value of $122 million are at risk of failure of Marin County Levee 3, including the entire Marin Lagoon community and its nine pump stations. The McNears seawall lies San Rafael Bay and is 1.4 miles long with an undocumented height. Approximately 604 people 242 buildings with a property value of $169 million in both San Rafael and the unincorporated County of Marin are at risk of failure of the McNears seawall, including hundreds of residences around the Peacock Gap Golf Country Club. The Marin County Levee 2 lies along the south bank of San Rafael Creek and its confluence with San Rafael Bay and is 0.2 miles long with an undocumented height. Approximately seventeen people and four buildings with a property value of $11.7 million is at risk of failure of the Marin County Levee 2, including the area in and around Pickleweed Park. The Marin County Levee 22 lies along San Rafael Creek and San Rafael Bay and is 1.18 miles long with an undocumented height. Approximately 951 people and 436 buildings with a property value of $196 million are at risk of failure of Marin County Levee 22, including the residential community around the Spinnaker Lagoon. Marin County Levee 19 lies along San Rafael Bay and is 0.67 miles long with an undocumented height. Approximately 16,425 people and 1,727 buildings with a property value of $2.44 billion are at risk of failure of the Marin County Levee 19 including several miles of Highway 101. San Rafael has never experienced a levee failure. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-101 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 46: City of San Rafael Levee Inundation Impact Source: Marin County OEM l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e San elmo • Dams Military and Civil • Defense Installations Communication Facilities • Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities • Water Supply Facilities Airports Marin County / San Rafael Levee Inundation • 0FIICI0I . .~ ~ EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT in wood Emerg ency Operations Centers Fire Stations Hospitals and Medical Facilities ~ Police / Sheriff Stations Schools -Le vee Centerline -Le vee Inundation Harry A Barbier Memor' ark 0.5 1 2 :_cflttE;)vN'!~<L = Miles ~ Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM _GIS @M arinCounty.org Date Printed : 11/01/23 N County of Marin, Ca lifornia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, Sa feGraph, GeoTechnolog ies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-102 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of major storm events, which can place added strain on levee systems. An increase in rainfall and runoff as a result of climate change will increase the potential for higher water levels in leveed areas across the Marin County OA including in San Rafael, increasing the potential for a levee failure. Rising seas will lead to increased stress on the levees around the Marin County OA shoreline including in San Rafael, particularly during a major tidal event and potential tsunami. As development increases in the populated areas of San Rafael protected by its levees, particularly along San Rafael Bay and around its marshlands, the potential for significant impacts to residents and infrastructure will only increase. 2.2.7 SEA LEVEL RISE Climate change is the distinct change in measures of weather patterns over a long period of time, ranging from decades to millions of years. More specifically, it may be a change in average weather conditions such as temperature, rainfall, snow, ocean and atmospheric circulation, or in the distribution of weather around the average. While the Earth’s climate has cycled over its 4.5-billion-year age, these natural cycles have taken place gradually over millennia, and the Holocene, the most recent epoch in which human civilization developed, has been characterized by a highly stable until recently. The Marin County OA MJHMP is concerned with human-induced climate change that has been rapidly warming the Earth at rates unprecedented in the last 1,000 years. Since industrialization began, the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) at escalating quantities has released vast amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases responsible for trapping heat in the atmosphere, increasing the average temperature of the Earth. Secondary impacts include changes in precipitation patterns, the global water cycle, melting glaciers and ice caps, and rising sea levels. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change will “increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems” if unchecked. Through changes to oceanic and atmospheric circulation cycles and increasing heat, climate change affects weather systems around the world. Climate change increases the likelihood and exacerbates the severity of extreme weather – more frequent or intense storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves. Consequences for human society include loss of life and injury, damaged infrastructure, long-term health effects, loss of agricultural crops, disrupted transport and freight, and more. Climate change is not a discrete event but a long-term hazard, the effects of which communities are already experiencing. Climate change adaptation is a key priority of the State of California. The 2013 State of California Multi- Hazard Mitigation Plan stated that climate change is already affecting California. The State has also seen increased average temperatures, more extreme hot days, fewer cold nights, a lengthening of the growing season, shifts in the water cycle with less winter precipitation falling as snow, and earlier runoff of both snowmelt and rainwater in the year. In l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-103 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE addition to changes in average temperatures, sea level, and precipitation patterns, the intensity of extreme weather events is also changing. Rising sea levels are considered a secondary effect of climate change due to warming ocean temperatures and melting glacial ice sheets into the ocean. The California coast has already seen a rise in sea level of four to eight inches over the 20th century due to climate change. Sea level rise impacts can be exacerbated during coastal storms, which often bring increased tidal elevations called “storm surge.” The large waves associated with such storm surges can cause flooding in low-lying areas, erosion of coastal wetlands, saltwater contamination of drinking water, disruption of septic system operations, impacts on roads and bridges, and increased stress on levees. In addition, rising sea levels results in coastal erosion as shoreline sediment is re-deposited back into the ocean. Evidence shows that winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since 1948 in the North Pacific, increasing regional wave heights and water levels during storm events. According to the 2017 “Rising Seas in California, An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science” report Marin County may experience impacts from Sea Level Rise over defined periods of time, to include long-term changes (second half of this century and beyond), and short- to mid-term projections (within the next two or three decades). The lowland areas in San Rafael are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and could experience between one and six feet of inundation (Mean High Water (MHW)), especially as these neighborhoods continue to subside over time. (Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment, 2017). Much of this vulnerable land was built on fill that used to be tidal marsh or mud. Sea level rise would likely return this area to tidal habitat again without measures to protect existing land uses. With a 100-year storm surge, downtown and further inland areas within the basin of the valley as far back as Gerstle Park could experience flooding. San Rafael’s vulnerable assets include the entire Canal neighborhood and Kerner Business District, and shoreline development and boating facilities off Point San Pedro Road. In time, the impacts move into downtown San Rafael, Peacock Gap, and Marin Lagoon. Recent construction at the Loch Lomond Marina and surrounding properties helped to elevate the shoreline to offer further protection from sea level rise in those areas. In addition to sea level rise, subsidence is already a significant issue south of Interstate 580 and Highway 101, and in Marin Lagoon, where development is built largely on fill atop bay mud. With sea level rise, subsidence rates could increase. San Rafael’s exposed historic resources could also be vulnerable to both tidal flooding and 100-year storm surge flooding from San Rafael Creek, generally in close proximity to Highway 101. Resources include the Litchfield Sign (local landmark), the French Quarter, two potentially historic areas, Ritter Street and Gerstle Park (partial), and four potentially historic structures. The following are key issues related to San Rafael sea level rise and a 100-year storm surge: • Flooding in the Canal area and Kerner Business District could compromise extensive multi-family housing, commercial, industrial, and recreational uses. • Highway 101 on and off-ramps could anticipate 100-year storm surge flooding in near-term and tidal flooding in the medium-term. • The San Rafael Transit Center could be vulnerable in the long-term. This could compromise local and regional bus lines, and the new SMART train. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-104 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE • A significant portion of downtown could face storm surges in the near- and medium- terms and sea level rise in the long-term. • Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District facilities on Andersen Drive could be vulnerable in the medium-term. • Several schools including Bahia Vista and Glenwood Elementary, Davidson Middle, and San Rafael High schools could be vulnerable. • Five historic landfills along the shoreline and one closed brownfield site further inland could be subject to inundation. • Miles of electrical transmission and natural gas pipelines are in the near-term. • Marinas and other boating facilities could be vulnerable to sea level rise in the medium - to long-term. • Peacock Gap homes and golf course could be vulnerable to storms in the near-term and sea level rise in the long-term. • Marin Lagoon and streets in the Las Gallinas area could begin to see peripheral tidal flooding and storm surge flooding in the near-term, and neighborhood scale flooding by the long-term. • Fire Station 54 is vulnerable to ten inches of sea level rise. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-105 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 47: City of San Rafael Sea Level Rise Impact Source: Marin County OEM l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e l,l San Anselmo San elmo Legend • Dams Military and Civil • Defense In stallations Communication Faci lities • Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities Marin County / San Rafael Sea Level Rise inwood • Emergency Operations Centers Fire Stations Hosp itals and Medical Faci li ties Police / She riff Stations Schools Corte MadeO 0 .5 \ • 0fllCI0F -EMERGENCY • • : MANAGEMENT 2 Miles • Water Supp ly Facilities Sea Level Rise M o· ~ Airports 1 ft Sea Level Rise -5 ft Sea Leve l Rise Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM_GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Printed: 11/01/23 N County of Marin, Ca lifornia State Parks, Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS, USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-106 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE The 2017 Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerably Assessment estimates that San Rafael could anticipate impacts to over 58,000 people over 4,700 living units with $2.6 billion in assessed property value as a result of a 100-year sea level rise scenario and including storm surge. A majority of privately held parcels contain buildings used for housing, work, entertainment, worship, and commerce. Many public parcels can also contain buildings, especially schools, community centers, and emergency services. Without shelter, many, if not most, of the existing activities on the land would not be feasible. Damages to and destruction of buildings especially several hundred to thousands of buildings at once, would be devastating to the local, regional, and state economy for years afterwards. Buildings in San Rafael are older, and many, especially downtown are unreinforced and could be weakened by flooding. These buildings are primarily mixed-use or commercial. Newer commercial buildings are typically concrete slab tilt-ups or smaller cinder block and stucco buildings. According to a BCDC profile for San Rafael for the Stronger Housing Safer Communities on seismic and flooding safety, most single-family homes in the low-lying areas of San Rafael are one- and two-story homes, built in the Victorian era, the earlier part of the 20th century, post-WWII, and newer modern homes. There are also 2-4 unit dwellings, and medium- and large-sized apartment complexes typically of wood construction. Several critical businesses could be vulnerable to sea level rise. These businesses either contain critical goods like medications and access to medical and building supplies after a major storm or flooding event or house some of the most vulnerable populations in the region. Transportation is a major concern for San Rafael and for the entire region. San Rafael serves as a regional transit center, and nearly all routes stop there, including the newly unveiled SMART line. In the near-term, other major roads impacted are Bellam Boulevard, Francisco Boulevard East, Kerner Blvd, Grand Avenue and Irwin Street. Much like with buildings, many of the roads to be flooded first are in, or are major access ways to, the Canal District and north of Interstate 580. Residents in this area tend to live with scarce financial resources and can be especially burdened by disruptions in the transportation system or damage to their vehicles. In addition, those with health or mobility constraints, who do not own a home or car, or are not proficient in the English language, may also be disproportionally burdened by sea level rise and storms. If these residents are displaced, the upheaval and loss would be significant to the community and the regional economy that depends on their contributions. Further, this area hosts the majority of light industrial and a major portion commercial uses that depend on the transportation network to reach clients, receive and deliver materials, and receive customers. Moreover, already constrained street parking could be flooded with tidal waters. Repeated exposure to saltwater would damage personal and commercial vehicles. Emergency access for fire, ambulance, and police could be limited at a time residents are most vulnerable. Fire Station 54 could be directly flooded, damaging equipment and vehicles in the station. In the medium-term, tidewaters extend under the freeways further into the street grid of downtown and the industrial and commercial Andersen Drive area. While Highway 101 is generally elevated, on and off ramps at grade could be flooded out along most of its course through the city. Unlike 101; however, Interstate 580 could anticipate surface flooding between the medium- and long-terms. In the long-term, streets and homes in the Gerstle Park neighborhood west of downtown and US Highway 101 could flood when Mahon Creek overflows its banks. While previously impacted by storm surges. Pt. San Pedro Road could expect impacts at tidal MHHW by the long-term. Roads bayside of Pt. San Pedro Road, such as Mooring Road, could be vulnerable in the near-term. PG&E has significant assets in San Rafael that could be exposed and vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge impacts. Underground gas pipes could face buoyancy pressures as the water table l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-107 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE beneath them rises and pushes them to the surface. The pressure can place bending forces on the pipes, especially where they are held down by roads. Moreover, if a road sheltering a natural gas pipe is damaged enough to rupture the pipes the consequences could be severe. The transmission lines are above ground and could be vulnerable to falling trees and high winds. In addition, posts could become damaged over time, from floating debris, and subsidence. The PG&E offices and yard on Andersen Drive could anticipate storm surge impacts in the long-term. The San Rafael public works building and corporate yard may not experience direct impacts until the long-term with a storm surge, and primarily in the parking lots. However, access to and from the site could be compromised in the long-term due to sea level rise alone. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion of warming oceans and the melting of land-based glaciers and polar ice caps. Climate change is affecting natural and built systems around the world, including the California coast. In the past century, average global temperature has increased about 1.4°F, and average global sea level has increased 7 to 8 inches. Sea level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area is projected to increase by eight inches MHW in 2050 and could reach 4.5 to eight feet by 2021 if greenhouse gas emissions aren’t reduced39. Figure 48: Projections of Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area, 2000-2100 Source: 2019–2020 Marin County Civil Grand Jury, Climate Change: How Will Marin Adapt? While the Marin County OA shoreline including around San Rafael already experiences regular erosion, flooding, and significant storm events, sea level rise will exacerbate these natural processes, leading to significant social, environmental, and economic impacts. The third National Climate Assessment cites strong evidence that the cost of doing nothing exceeds the costs associated with adapting to sea level rise by 4 to 10 times. Sea level rise will continue to affect the Marin County OA including San Rafael with increased tidal flooding and storm surge, particularly up San Rafael Creek, during severe weather events. Future development in the coastal and lowland areas of San Rafael including the entire Canal neighborhood, Kerner Business District and shoreline development and boating facilities off Point San Pedro Road would only amplify these impacts and will put more people and property at risk from flooding as 39 2017 Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment. https://www.marincounty.org/- /media/files/departments/cd/planning/slr/baywave/vulnerability-assessment- final/final_allpages_bvbconsulting_reduced.pdf?la=en l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e Sea-Level Rise if Greenhouse Gas Emissions Remain High 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 (Year) 8 7 6 2 Sea-Level Rise if Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Moderated 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 (Year) 8 7 6 5 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-108 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE a result of sea level rise. Sea level can also lead to increased land subsidence and the potential of levee failure, with billions of dollars in property in San Rafael at risk of a levee failure. The impacts of a tsunami would also be magnified with rising seas. Transportation and utility infrastructure across San Rafael will continue to become inundated. 2.2.8 SEVERE WEATHER – EXTREME HEAT Extreme heat is defined as temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks. A heat wave is an extended period of extreme heat, often with high humidity. When relative humidity is factored in, the temperature can feel much hotter as reflected in the Heat Index (see Figure 49): Figure 49: Heat Index Source: NOAA Heat kills by taxing the human body beyond its abilities. In a normal year, about 1,300 Americans succumb to the demands of summer heat. Heat is the leading weather-related cause of mortalities in the US. In 2006, California reported a high of 204 heat related deaths, with 98 reported in 2017 and 93 deaths reported in 2018. Extreme heat has the potential to impact all areas of San Rafael and would be felt more in areas where there is a widespread presence of concrete and asphalt, which stores heat longer. This includes most of the downtown and commercial area of the city. There are thousands of residences in this area. Heat waves can cause power outages and can sicken people who are exposed to high temperatures too long, particularly infants and the elderly. In September 2022 the Marin County OA including the San Rafael experienced an Extreme Heat Event with temperatures exceeding 113 degrees. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations The primary effect of climate change is warmer average temperatures. The annual average daily high temperatures in California are expected to rise by 2.7°F by 2040, 5.8°F by 2070, and l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e NOAA's Nati ona l Weather Service Heat In dex Tempe r at u re jOf ) 80 82 84 86 98 100 102 104 40 80 81 83 85 105 109 11 4 1 45 80 82 84 87 109 114 1 ~ 50 81 83 85 88 ~ 81 84 86 8'9 ~ 55 ""C 60 82 84 88 91 .E 65 82 85 89 93 ::l :c 70 83 86 90 95 G, 75 84 88 92 97 > :.:a 80 84 89 94 100 <ll Qi 85 85 90 96 102 110 Cl 90 86 91 98 105 113 95 86 93 100 108 117 100 87 95 103 112 121 Lik eli hood orHe111 Ois orders w it h Pro l on9ed Exposu r e or Srreuous Ac t ivity O c .. 1.,ti on 0 1 Ex.treme C~Ult ion O,mger ■ Extreme D.in91e r 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-109 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 8.8°F by 2100 compared to observed and modeled historical conditions40. At the current rate, annual average temperatures in the Marin County OA region and Bay Area will likely increase by approximately 4.4 degrees by 2050 and 7.2 degree by the end of the century unless significant efforts are made to reduce greenhouse emotions according to California’s latest climate change assessment. Figure50: Annual Average Temperatures in the San Francisco Bay Area, 2000-2100 Source: California Climate Change Assessment (Fourth Edition) As climate change accelerates in the 21st century, it is anticipated that extreme heat events will become more frequent and intense across the Marin County OA including in San Rafael. There will be increased residential and business needs for cooling and addressing heat-related issues. These effects would primarily be felt in the lowland areas of San Rafael where heat builds in developed areas. Heat waves also tax the energy grid. Future development in the Marin County OA including San Rafael could exacerbate the impacts from heat related events, particularly in electricity provision and water delivery. Increased temperatures will also lead to an increase in the occurrence and severity of wildfires across the Marin County OA including San Rafael as conditions become hotter and drier. These effects will primarily be felt in the mountainous and marshlands areas of San Rafael where hotter and drier conditions are more apt to lead to wildfires. Future development near the many open spaces around San Rafael could expose more people and infrastructure to the threat of a major wildfire as a result of increasing temperatures. 40 California Adaptation Planning Guide l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e -82 u.. . QI 80 ._ :, ~ 78 QI a. ~ 76 ...., ~ 74 E ~ 72 11) ... ~ 70 11) iii :, 68 C C <t 66 a) Annual time series Historical -observed Historical -modeled range RCP4 .S average RCP8 .S average RCP4.S range RCP8 .S range 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 -82 11.. . QI 80 ._ .a ~ 78 QI a. ~ 76 _µ ~ 74 E ~ 72 :'.: ~ 70 11) iii :, 68 C C <t 66 b) Ti me period summaries Historical -observed AVG/MIN/MAX Historical -modeled AVG/MIN/MAX RCP4 .5 AVG/M IN/MAX RCP8 .5 AVG/M IN/MAX MAX MIN 1976-2005 2006-2039 2040-2069 2070-2100 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-110 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 2.2.9 SEVERE WEATHER – HIGH WIND AND TORNADO High Wind High wind is defined as a one-minute average of surface winds 40 miles per hour or greater lasting for one hour or longer, or winds gusting to 58 miles per hour or greater regardless of duration that are either expected or observed over land. These winds may occur as part of a seasonal climate pattern or in relation to other severe weather events such as thunderstorms. The Beaufort scale is an empirical measure that relates wind speed to observed conditions on land and is a common measure of wind intensity (see Figure 51). Figure 51: Beaufort Wind Scale Source: NOAA Windstorms in the Marin County OA are typically straight-line winds. Straight-line winds are generally any thunderstorm wind that is not associated with rotation (i.e., is not a tornado). It is these winds, which can exceed 100 mph, which represent the most common type of severe weather and are responsible for most wind damage related to thunderstorms. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e Beaufort number 0 1 2 3 4 5 Description calm Light air Ug ht b ree ze Ge ntle b ree ie Moder.ate breeze Fresh breeze St rong b reeze Hi gh wind, Moderat.e gale, eargale Gale, Frns h ga le Strongg-a le Storm, Whole gale v olent st orm Hurricane Wind ,speed Land conditions kts m/h <1 <1 Cillm.S o e r ises vertica lly. 1-2 1-5 Wind mo on vi si ble ·n smoke . 3 -6 6 -11 Wind fl!l t one po~d sk i n. Leaves ru!.tie . 7-10 12 -19 Lt:aves and sma ll et vi £!: i n constant motion. 11 -15 20 -2.8 Dus1 and l oose paper ra i sed .Sma ll b1anches be~i n to move. 16 -20 29-38 Branc he:s o f a modera e si ze mo e. Sma ll trees be11 l n o s vay. 11-26 27-33 34 -40 3!1-4!1 large branches i n moli on. hi stl i ngheard in overhead w ires . Umbrella use be comes d iffi cu lt_ Empty pl astic garbage cans t l p o ver. 50 _ 61 Who le rees In mo Ion . Effort needed to •nilk aga lns;t the w ind. Sway ing of skyscrapers mc1v be fe l t espc<la lly by people on upper oors. 62 _ 74 Some twi~ broken from tree:s . Cllrs vee-r en read _ Proeress en foo is ser l cus l y impeded . Some branches break off trees , and some sma ll tr ees b lowo er . 41 -47 75 -88 Construction/ empore rv s igns llnd barr icades blow over. 011m11ec to c I rcus tents a nd czrnop ics. 48-55 89 _ 102 Trees are broken o or uprooted. :;ap llngs bent and deformed. Poorly a~ched ospho l t sh 1n1 les and ~h i ng les In poor cond i ion peel ofi roofs . W i despread vegetati on damage. Many roofing surfaces are damaged; 56 -63 103 -117 a5pha lH l es tha.t ha e cur l ed up and/orfrac ur~ due to age may break away compl e elv . Z:64 verv wi desi,,e11d d11maee to veee euon . some wi ndows may bree : mob il e z 118 homes and poorly constructed sheds and bar ns are darnai.ed . Debr i s may be hurl ed about 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-111 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Tornado Tornadoes are rotating columns of air marked by a funnel-shaped downward extension of a cumulonimbus cloud whirling at destructive speeds of up to 300 mph, usually accompanying a thunderstorm. Tornadoes are the most powerful storms that exist, and damage paths can be in excess of one mile wide and 50 miles long. The Enhanced Fujita Scale (see Figure 52) is commonly used to rate the intensity of tornadoes in the United States based on the damages that they cause. Figure 52: Enhanced Fujita Scale Source: NOAA Tornadic waterspouts are tornadoes that form over water or move from land to water. They have the same characteristics as a land tornado. They are associated with severe thunderstorms, and are often accompanied by high winds and seas, large hail, and frequent dangerous lightning. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~---~ ~ARIN ~ EF-1 EF-2 EF-3 EF-4 Enhanced Fujita Scale 65-85 mph winds 86-110 mph winds 111-135 mph winds 136-165 mph winds 166-200 mph winds >200 mph winds 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-112 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 53597: Waterspout Formation Source: MarineInsights All of San Rafael is susceptible to storms and damage from wind and tornadoes, though the mountainous areas surrounding the city and the parks inside the city have increased susceptibility due to a higher presence of trees. Drought can increase the susceptibility of trees toppling over in a high wind event. Fallen trees could damage homes and other facilities. Power lines could be impacted by fallen trees and wind, causing power outages. Roadways could also become blocked by fallen trees, affecting the ability of residents to reach their homes. On 12/2/2012, high winds caused power lines to blow down across Smith Ranch Road. Two power poles were snapped off on Highway 101 in Terra Linda, closing the northbound offramp to Lucas Valley-Smith Ranch Road. Power lines fell at the Park’n’Ride lot and across Redwood Boulevard. Smith Ranch Road was closed between Redwood Boulevard and the Highway 101. A stretch of Redwood Boulevard was closed south of Paul Drive. On 3/14/2023, high winds caused arcing power lines along Mountain View Avenue, contributing to power outages in the city. San Rafael has never experienced a tornado. Climate Change and Future Development Considerations It is anticipated that the atmospheric rivers that deliver storms to Northern California may intensify because of climate change. This increase in storm intensity may bring more intense winds and potential tornados to Northern California, including the Marin County OA and San Rafael. Significant wind events and tornados can topple trees, particularly those that may be saturated or drought stressed as a result of climate change. An increase in fallen trees in San Rafael as a result of increased storms due to climate change can lead to an increase in power l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN WATERSPOUTS AT SEA THE VERTICAL FUNNEL Water spouts at sea are vertical wind shear; a wind force that changes direction as it goes higher. IT'S NOT SEAWATER INSIDE WATERSPOUTS The clouds gather. and water condensation leads to a swirling mass of water droplets. WIND VELOCITY According to NOAA, an average waterspout is around 50 meters in diameter. and its associated wind moves at 50 mi les an hour. TORNADIC AND NON- TORNADIC WATER SPOUTS A t orna d ic wat ers pou t is associated with thunderstorms. high winds. hail. and frequent lightning. Fa ir-w eathe r w a terspouts need warm water to develop along the dark flat base of a line of growing cumulus clouds. THE EARLIEST WATERSPOUTS In 1555, at the Grand Harbour of Valletta. CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-113 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE outages. Future development in any of the forested areas of San Rafael including in the southern and western mountainous residential areas will increase the effects of severe wind events. 2.2.10 TSUNAMI Tsunamis consist of waves generated by large disturbances of the sea floor, which are caused by volcanic eruptions, landslides or earthquakes. Shallow earthquakes along dip slip faults are more likely to be sources of tsunami than those along strike slip faults. The West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) is responsible for tsunami warnings. Tsunamis are often incorrectly referred to as tidal waves. They are actually a series of waves that can travel at speeds averaging 450 (and up to 600) miles per hour with unusual wave heights. Tsunamis can reach the beach before warnings are issued. A tsunami experienced by San Rafael would most likely occur from an earthquake, the location of which would determine the amount of time that the tsunami waves would reach the city. Much of eastern San Rafael is at a lower elevation. The three areas of San Rafael in a tsunami inundation zone include the southern area of the city protected by Marin County Levee’s 12 and 19, the San Pedro Point area protected by the McNears seawall, and the marshlands at the lower end of Gallinas Creek near Santa Venetia. There are hundreds of residences, numerous commercial buildings, several critical facilities, and major roads and highways that lie in these areas and could be susceptible to a tsunami. The San Rafael Fire Station #54, the San Rafael Fire Station #55, the Bahia Vista School, the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District EOC and a Pacific Gas and Electric yard all lie in a tsunami inundation zone and could be susceptible to a tsunami. Several miles of Highway 101 and Interstate 580 lie in an tsunami inundation area and could be susceptible a tsunami, effecting ingress and egress in San Rafael and the greater Marin County OA. San Rafael has experienced damage to docks in the east San Rafael area from Tsunami associated surges but is generally well protected within the Bay. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-114 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 54: City of San Rafael Tsunami Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Source: Marin County OEM l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e San elmo • Dams Military and Civil • Defense Installations Communication Facilities • Electric Power Facilities Wastewater Facilities • Water Supply Facilities Airports Marin County / San Rafael Tsunami -EMERGENCY ~ MANAGEMENT inwood '7 Ven Emergency Operations Centers Fire Stations Hospitals and Medical Facilities Police / Sheriff Stations Schools Hazards Group D Tsunami Inundation Harry A Barbier Merne r" ark 0 0 .5 2 Miles Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn email: OEM_GIS@MarinCounty.org Date Printed: 11/01/23 ~ N County of Marin, California State Parks , Esri, HERE , Garmin , SafeGraph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land Management, EPA, NPS , USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-115 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Climate Change and Future Development Considerations The biggest threat to tsunamis is sea level rise which is a direct result of climate change. Sea level rise can make tsunamis worse than they already are because higher sea levels allow for tsunamis to travel further inland and cause even more damage. Sea level rise results in more vulnerable coastlines which make coastal communities even more vulnerable to an incoming tsunami as the natural buffer to absorb the energy of an incoming tsunami will cease to exist. This is particularly true in the Marin County OA including San Rafael, where a large segment of the developed population lies in an area vulnerable to sea level rise. Furthermore, it has been theorized that ocean warming, caused by climate change, can impact the tectonic plates that rest below large bodies of water. Ultimately, this can result in more geological activities and worse tsunamis. Climate change has also affected ocean patterns, which could eventually lead to tsunamis distributing themselves across the ocean and impacting areas that are currently not susceptible to a tsunami. Tsunamis as a result of climate change and associated sea level rise will exacerbate the impacts of flooding in the lowland areas of the Marin County OA including San Rafael. This is particularly true along the mouth of San Rafael Creek and around the marshland areas of Gallinas Creek where additional storm surge as a result of a larger tsunami could cause greater impacts. Future development in these areas as well as in the southern area of the city protected by levees will expose more people and infrastructure to the effects of flooding as tsunami inundation areas expand with climate change. Development in marshland in San Rafael would expose additional people and infrastructure to flooding as marshlands act as a natural buffer to a tsunami. Flooding could be exacerbated in areas where levees could fail along Gallinas Creek and along the shoreline of San Rafael, including the southern area of the city and the area around Point San Pedro as a result of high wave heights associated with a more significant tsun ami. A major tsunami as a result of sea level rise caused by climate change could cause additional flooding impacts to Interstate 580 in San Rafael, significantly impacting travel into and out of the Marin County OA. 2.2.11 WILDFIRE A wildfire is a fire that occurs in an area of combustible vegetation. The three conditions necessary for a wildfire to burn are fuel, heat, and oxygen. Fuel is any flammable material that can burn, including vegetation, structures, and cars. The more fuel that exists and the drier that fuel is, the more intense the fire can be. Wildfires can be started naturally through lightning or combustion or can be set by humans. There are many sources of human-caused wildfires including arson, power lines, a burning campfire, an idling vehicle, trains, and escaped controlled burns. On average, four out of five wildfires are started by humans. Uncontrolled wildfires fueled by wind and weather can burn acres of land and everything in their path in mere minutes and can reach speeds up to 15 miles per hour or faster depending upon wind speed and ember distribution. On average, more than 100,000 wildfires burn 4 to 5 million acres of land in the United States every year. Although wildfires can occur in any state, they are most common in the Western states including California where heat, drought, and thunderstorms create perfect wildfire conditions. Wildfires are of primary concern when they occur in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), which is defined as areas where homes are built near or among lands prone to wildfire. Even relatively small acreage fires may result in disastrous damages. Most structures in the WUI are not destroyed from direct flame impingement, but from embers carried by wind. The damages can be widely varying, but are primarily reported as damage to infrastructure, built environment, and injuries to people. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-116 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE The pattern of increased damages is directly related to increased urban spread into historical forested areas that have wildfire as part of the natural ecosystem. Many WUI fire areas have long histories of wildland fires that burned only vegetation in the past. However, with new development, a wildland fire following a historical pattern may now burn these newly developed areas. WUI fires can occur where there is a distinct boundary between the built and natural areas or where development or infrastructure has encroached or is intermixed in the natural area. WUI fires may include fires that occur in remote areas that have critical infrastructure easements through them, including electrical transmission towers, railroads, water reservoirs, communications relay sites or other infrastructure assets. Consequently, wildland fires that burn in natural settings with little or no development are part of a natural ecological cycle and may actually be beneficial to the landscape. Century old policies of fire exclusion and aggressive suppression have given way to better understanding of the importance fire plays in the natural cycle of certain forest types. Warning times are usually adequate to ensure public safety, provided that evacuation recommendations and orders are heeded in a timely manner. While in most cases wildfires are contained within a week or two of outbreak, in certain cases, they have been known to burn for months, or until they are completely extinguished by fall rains. Wildfire poses the greatest risk to human life and property in the Marin County OA’s densely populated WUI, which holds an estimated 69,000 living units. The Marin County OA is home to 23 communities listed on CAL FIRE’s Communities at Risk list, with approximately 80% of the total land area in the county designated as having moderate to very high fire hazard severity ratings. The county has a long fire history with many large fires over the past decades, several of which have occurred in the WUI. To compound the issue, national fire suppression policies and practices have contributed to the continuous growth (and overgrowth) of vegetation resulting in dangerously high fuel loads. The Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP) provides a scientifically based assessment of wildfire threat in the WUI of the Marin County OA. The City of San Rafael has a 38 Point Action Plan aimed at reducing risks associated with wildfire. Fire protection in California is the responsibility of either the federal, state, or local government depending upon the location of the incident. On federally owned land, or federal responsibility areas (FRA), fire protection is provided by the federal government, and or in partnership with local agreements. In state responsibility areas (SRA), CAL FIRE typically provides fire protection. However, in some counties CAL FIRE contracts with county fire departments to provide protection of the SRA – this is the case in the Marin County OA, where CAL FIRE contracts with MCFD. Local responsibility areas (LRA) include incorporated cities and cultivated agriculture lands, and fire protection is typically provided by city fire departments, fire protection districts, counties, and by CAL FIRE under contract to local government. The San Rafael Fire Department provides first response and wildfire prevention efforts to San Rafael. CAL FIRE contracts with MCFD to provide wildland fire protection and associated fire prevention activities for lands designated by the State Board of Forestry as SRA. The MCFD is responsible for the protection of approximately 200,000 acres of SRA within the county and is the primary agency that handles wildland fires. This includes the area of China Camp State Park, in east San Rafael. MCFD also provides similar protection services to approximately l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-117 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 100,000 acres of FRA in the Golden Gate National Recreation Area (GGNRA), the Muir Woods National Monument, and the Point Reyes National Seashore. Figure 55 indicates the federal responsibility areas, state responsibility areas and local responsibility areas in the Marin County OA. Figure 55: Federal, State and Local Responsibility Areas in the Marin County OA Source: Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan The mix of weather, diverse vegetation and fuel characteristics, complex topography, and land use and development patterns in the Marin County OA are important contributors to the fire environment. The MCFD Woodacre ECC currently manages the data from four Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) for predicting fire danger utilizing the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) during the fire season. The RAWS are located in Woodacre, Middle Peak, Barnabe, Big Rock and a new station will be coming online in Novato. The Marin County OA is bounded by the cool waters of the Pacific Ocean to the west, the San Francisco and Richardson Bays to the southeast, the San Pablo Bay to the east, and Sonoma County agricultural lands to the north. The combination of these large bodies of water, location in the mid-latitudes, and the persistent high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean results in several micro-climates. Weather in the OA consists of warm, dry summers and cool, wet winters. The climate in early fall and late spring is generally similar to the summer, and late fall is similar to winter. Spring is generally cool, but not as wet as the winter. While these general weather conditions are fairly representative of the typical Marin County OA weather, complex l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN Legend Federal responsl bflily area s (FRA) Local respons,b,l lly areas (LRA) 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-118 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE topography, annual variability of weather patterns, and less frequent and transient weather patterns are important to fire conditions. In the late spring through early fall, the combination of frequent and strong high-pressure systems (known as the Pacific High) over California combined with the cool waters of the ocean/bays results in persistent fog and low clouds along the coast (including over the southern Marin County OA near the San Francisco Bay) with winds. The fog often penetrates into the inland valleys of the northern and central Marin County OA, especially during overnight hours. At the coastline, mist from fog can keep the land surfaces modestly moist while inland land surfaces above the fog or inversion are often very dry. The Pacific High that persists from late spring through early fall over the eastern Pacific, combined with a thermal low pressure over the Central Valley of California, results in an almost continuous sea breeze. These winds usher in cool and moist air and can be strong at times (15 to 25 mph), especially over the ridge tops and through northwest to southeast lying valleys, including San Geronimo/Ross, Hicks, Lucas Valleys, and Mill Valley and the Marin Headlands. These westerly winds are usually highest in the afternoon, decrease in the evening, and are light overnight before increasing again in the late morning/early afternoon. Occasionally in the summer and more often in the fall, the Pacific High moves inland and centers over Oregon and Idaho, while low pressure moves from the Central Valley of California to southern California and Arizona. The resulting north-to -south pressure gradient can be strong enough to retard the typical sea breeze and can even result in winds blowing from the land to the ocean (offshore winds). As the offshore winds move air from the Central Valley to the coastal areas of California, the air descends and compresses, which greatly warms and dries the air. Under these “Diablo” wind conditions, temperatures in the Marin County OA can reach 100°F in the inland areas and even 80°F at the coast, and relative humidity can be very low. In addition, wind speeds can be high (20 to 40 mph), gusty and are often much faster over the mountains and ridge tops such as Mt. Tamalpais, Loma Alta, Marin Headlands and Mt. Burdell compared to low-lying areas. Wind speeds can be high over the ridges and mountains at all times of day under this “offshore” wind pattern and are often much slower or even calm at night in low-lying areas because nighttime cooling decouples the aloft winds from the surface winds. It is during these Diablo wind events that there is a high potential for large, wind -driven fires should there be an ignition. Historically, the largest and most destructive fires have occurred during these offshore (also known as Foehn) wind events including the Angel Island and the Vision fires which were located in West Marin. A few times per year in the summer and early fall, monsoonal flow from Mexico may bring in moist and unstable air over central and northern California, which can result in thunderstorms with or without precipitation. With the otherwise dry summer conditions, lightning from this type of weather pattern can ignite fires. These monsoonal flow patterns are usually only one to two- day events. Beginning in late November and lasting through the end of March, the Pacific High moves south and weakens, allowing storms that originate in the Gulf of Alaska to move over California. These storms bring precipitation and, at times, strong winds out of the south. Each storm usually results in one fourth inch to several inches of rain over a day or so. Near Mt. Tamalpais, rainfall amounts are enhanced by orographic lifting, resulting in higher rain amounts in the l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-119 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Kentfield and Fairfax areas compared to the rest of the county. Typically, after the first rain in November, the cool weather and occasional storm keeps the ground wet through late Spring. However, in some years, significant rain does not occur until later in the year (e.g., early-to-late December) and there can be several weeks without any storms and rain. During storms, temperatures are usually mild. When there are no storms over California, a land-breeze typically forms (i.e., winds blowing from the Central Valley to the Pacific Ocean). These winds can reach 30 mph, and travel through the southeast to northwest lying valleys, over low-lying ridges such as the Marin Headlands, and through the Golden Gate. These winds are usually highest in the mid-morning hours and decrease in the afternoon as the Central Valley warms during the day. The winds are associated with cold and modestly moist air. In late February/early March through late April, the Pacific High strengthens and moves north, and storms impacting the county become less frequent. During this time of year there is often a low-pressure area over the desert in southwest California. The combination of the Pacific High to the north and low-pressure to the southwest results in strong winds blowing from the northwest to the southeast. Like the sea breeze, these winds bring in cool, moist air and are usually highest in the afternoon hours. Because of winter and spring rains, the land is wet and there is little danger of wildland fire despite the strong winds and only occasional precipitation. There is often little coastal fog this time of year. Vegetation, which is also known as fuel, plays a major role in fire behavior and potential fire hazards. A fuel’s composition, including moisture level, chemical make-up, and density, determines its degree of flammability. Of these, fuel moisture level is the most important consideration. Generally, live trees contain a great deal of moisture while dead logs contain very little. The moisture content and distribution of fuels define how quickly a fire can spread and how intense or hot it may become. High moisture content will slow the burning process since heat from the fire must first eliminate moisture. In addition to moisture, a fuel’s chemical makeup determines how readily it will burn. Some plants, shrubs, and trees such as chamise and eucalyptus (both present in the Marin County OA) contain oils or resins that promote combustion, causing them to burn more easily, quickly, and intensely. Finally, the density of a fuel influences its flammability; when fuels are close together but not too dense, they will ignite each other, causing the fuel to spread readily. However, if fuels are so close that air cannot circulate easily, the fuel will not burn freely. The Marin County OA has extensive topographic diversity that supports a variety of vegetation types. Marin County’s OA has significant changes in topography with steep vegetated slopes which can also add to the ability of the fuel to further expand a wildfire. Environmental factors, such as temperature, precipitation, soil type, aspect, slope, and land use history, all help determine the existing vegetation at any given location. In the central and eastern parts of the county, north facing slopes are usually densely wooded from lower elevations to ridge peaks with a mixture of mostly hardwood tree species such as coast live oak, California bay, Pacific madrone, and other oak species. Marshlands are also present throughout the county; once ignited marsh fires can be difficult to contain and extinguish. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-120 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Grasslands with a mixture of native and nonnative annual and perennial plant species occur most often in the northern and western parts of the county due to a combination of soil type, lower rainfall, and a long history of ranching. The southern and western facing slopes tend to have a higher percentage of grasslands, which in turn have the potential to experience higher rates of fire spread. Grassland fires are dangerous even without extreme fire weather scenarios due to the rapid rate of fire spread; in some cases, fires spread so quickly that large areas can burn before response resources are able to arrive. In the west portion of the county closer to the coast, where precipitation is higher and marine influence is greater, most areas are densely forested with conifer species (i.e., Bishop pine, Douglas-fir, and coast redwood) and associated hardwood species. Chaparral vegetation also occurs in parts of the county, especially on steeper south and west facing slopes. This mix of densely forested areas mixed with chaparral results in higher fuel loads and potentially higher fire intensity. Expansion of the residential community into areas of heavier vegetation has resulted in homes existing in close proximity to dense natural foliage; these homes are often completely surrounded by highly combustible or tall vegetation, increasing the potential that wildland fires could impact them. As part of the development of the Marin Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP), an updated vegetation map layer was created using the most recent vegetation information available from a variety of state and local data sources. Vegetation distribution in the Marin County OA is characterized by approximately 20 different types of vegetation which have been classified into 15 fire behavior fuel models. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-121 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 56598: Fuel Model Map for the Marin County OA Source: Unknown Insect infestations and plant diseases, such as California oak mortality syndrome (sudden oak death), are increasing and threaten to change the structure and overall health of native plant communities in Marin County. Sudden oak death has no known cure and is the biggest concern; this syndrome is caused by the fungus-like Phytophthora ramorum, which has led to widespread mortality of several tree species in California since the mid-1990s; the tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) in particular appears to have little or no resistance to the disease. Sudden oak death has resulted in stands of essentially dead trees with very low fuel moistures. Studies examining the impacts of sudden oak death on fire behavior indicate that while predicted surface fire behavior in sudden oak death stands seems to conform to a common fuel model already in use for hardwood stands, the very low moisture content of dead tanoak leaves may lead to crown ignitions more often during fires of “normal” intensity. Two other plant diseases prevalent in the Marin County OA are pitch canker (which affects conifers such as Bishop pine and other pine species) and madrone twig dieback (which affects Pacific madrones). Pitch canker is caused by the fungus Fusarium circinatum (F. subglutinans, F. sp. pini), which enters the tree through wounds caused by insects. While some trees do recover, most infected trees are eventually killed by the fungus. Management of this disease largely focuses on containment to reduce the fungus spreading to other trees. Pitch canker is a particular issue in the NPS lands of Pt. Reyes National Seashore, where many acres of young l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e Fuel Model D 101 : Short, Sparse Dry Climate Grass D 102 : Low Load . Dry Climate Grass D 104 : Moderate Load , Ory Climate Grass D 107 : High Load . Dry Climate Grass D 121 : Low Load , Dry Climate Grass-Shrub D 141 : Low load Dry Cl imate Shrub D 142 : Moderate Load Dr/ Climate Shrub D 145: High Load, Dry Climate Shrub D 147: Very High Load , Dry Climate Shrub Low Load Dry Climate Timber-Grass-Shrub D 165 : Very High Load , Ory Climate Timber-Shrub CJ 181 : Low Load Compact Conifer Litter 182 : Low Load Broadleaf Litter -186 : Moderate load Broadleaf Utter -189: Very High Load Broadleaf Litter -91: Urban.'Developed 98: Open Water c::J 99: Bare Ground 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-122 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Bishop Pines that were seeded on the Inverness Ridge by the Mount Vision Fire of 1995 have been infected. These dead and dying trees have created large swaths of land with dense and dry fuel loads. Madrone twig dieback is caused by the native fungus Botryosphaeria dothidea and appears to be getting worse throughout the county due to drought effects on Pacific madrones. Three additional threats to trees common to the Marin County OA include: • Bark and ambrosia beetles (Monarthrum dentiger and monarthrum scutellare), which target oak and tanoak trees. Sudden oak death may be exacerbating the effects of beetle infestations which prey on trees already weakened by this disease. • Root rot, caused by oak root fungus (Armillaria mellea), is primarily associated with oaks and other hardwoods but also attacks conifers. These fungal infestations cause canopy thinning and branch dieback and can kill mature trees. As with the beetle infestations, sudden oak death may be exacerbating the effects of root rot fungus in the county forests. • Velvet-top fungus (Phaeolus schweinitzii) is a root rot fungus affecting Douglas-fir and other conifers, with the infection typically occurring through a wound. Topography characterizes the land surface features of an area in terms of elevation, aspect, and slope. Aspect is the compass direction that a slope faces, which can have a strong influence on surface temperature, and more importantly on fuel moistures. Both elevation and aspect play an important role in the type of vegetation present, the length of the growing season, and the amount of sunlight absorbed by vegetation. Generally, southern aspects receive more solar radiation than northern aspects; the result is that soil and vegetation on southern aspects is warmer and dryer than soil and vegetation on northern aspects. Slope is a measure of land steepness and can significantly influence fire behavior as fire tends to spread more rapidly on steeper slopes. For example, as slope increases from 20 – 40%, flame heights can double and rates of fire spread can increase fourfold; from 40 – 60%, flame heights can become three times higher and rates of spread can increase eightfold. The Marin County OA is topographically diverse, with rolling hills, valleys and ridges that trend from northwest to southeast. Elevation throughout the county varies considerably, with Mt. Tamalpais’ peak resting at 2,574 feet above sea level and many communities at or near sea level. Correspondingly, there is considerable diversity in slope percentages. The San Geronimo Valley slopes run from level (in the valley itself) to near 70%. Mt. Barnabe has slopes that run from 20 to 70%, and Throckmorton ridge has slopes that range in steepness from 40 – 100%. These slope changes can make fighting fires extremely difficult. In the WUI where natural fuels and structure fuels are intermixed, fire behavior is complex and difficult to predict. Research based on modeling, observations, and case studies in the WUI indicates that structure ignitability during wildland fires depends largely on the characteristics and building materials of the home and its immediate surroundings. The dispersion of burning embers from wildfires is the most likely cause of home ignitions. When embers land near or on a structure, they can ignite near-by vegetation or accumulated debris on the roof or in the gutter. Embers can also enter the structure through openings such as an open window or vent and could ignite the interior of the structure or debris in the attic. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-123 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Wildfire can further ignite structures through direct flame contact and/or radiant heat. For this reason, it is important that structures and property in the WUI are less prone to ignition by ember dispersion, direct flame contact, and radiant heat. Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) Events As a result of the 2017 Northern California Wildfires, the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County and other wildfires caused by power line infrastructure, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) began initiating Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events in their service areas (including Marin County) to help prevent the start of future wildfires. PG&E will initiate a PSPS if conditions indicate potentially dangerous weather conditions in fire-prone areas due to strong winds, low humidity, and dry vegetation. During these events, PG&E will proactively turn off power in high fire risk areas to reduce the threat of wildfires. The most likely electric lines to be considered for a public safety power outage will be those that pass through areas that have been designated by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) High Fire-Threat District at elevated (Tier 2) or extreme risk (Tier 3) for wildfire. Customers outside of these areas could have their power shut off, though, if their community relies upon a line that passes through a high fire-threat area or an area experiencing severe weather. PG&E will consider numerous factors and analyze historical data to help predict the likelihood of a wildfire occurring, and closely monitoring weather watch alerts from the National Weather Service (NWS). These factors generally include, but are not limited to: • A Red Flag Warning declared by the National Weather Service • Low humidity levels, generally 20 percent and below • Forecasted sustained winds generally above 25 mph and wind gusts in excess of approximately 45 mph, depending on location and site-specific conditions such as temperature, terrain and local climate • Condition of dry material on the ground and live vegetation (moisture content) • On-the-ground, real-time observations from PG&E's Wildfire Safety Operations Center and field crews Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E) operates a total of 1,179 miles of overhead electricity transmission and distribution lines in the Marin County OA. Overhead electricity lines and poles can be damaged or downed under severe weather conditions, particularly severe wind conditions, which increases the potential for wildfire ignition. 52 percent of PG&E’s overhead distribution lines and 41 percent of its overhead transmission lines are located in CPUC- identified High-Fire Threat Districts subject to elevated or extreme fire risk. PG&E is currently planning and implementing safety measures to prevent wildfires and reduce the impacts of Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events on communities in the Marin County OA and throughout California. In October 2019 the County of Marin and the City of San Rafael experienced two PSPS events totaling over five days without power. These measures include installing weather stations; installing high-definition cameras; installing sectionalizing devices on its overhead lines to separate the grid into smaller sections; hardening the system by installing stronger power poles, covering lines, and undergrounding lines in targeted areas; creating temporary microgrids to provide electricity during PSPS events; and enhancing existing vegetation management activities. From 2018 to July 2021, PG&E hardened three miles of overhead lines, installed 68 transmission and distribution sectionalizing devices, l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-124 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE completed enhanced vegetation management on approximately 51 of overhead line miles, installed 28 weather stations, and installed 12 high-definition cameras in the Marin County OA. PG&E has also begun undergrounding several overhead transmission lines throughout California. A wildfire in San Rafael would most likely occur on the central and northwestern areas of the city which is in a high FHSZ and where there is more forested terrain. Open spaces in this area include Boyd Memorial Park and Jerry Russom Memorial Park. Neighborhoods in a high FHSZ include the Smith Ranch area, West End from San Rafael Hill to Ridgewood Avenue and Bret Harte Avenue, the Los Ranchitos areas and Terra Linda neighborhoods. The areas of San Rafael in a high FHSZ are primarily residential with thousands of homes and consists of numerous winding streets and hillside homes that could be damaged or destroyed by a wildfire. Many of the hillside neighborhoods are at risk of wildfires and have extremely limited ingress and egress for residents and emergency services. Part of downtown including numerous businesses and the San Rafael City Hall, San Rafael Police Department, and San Rafael Fire Station #51; the Sun Valley School; part of the Terra Linda School; the Marindale School; the Caulbridge School; the County of Marin Office of Education; the County of Marin 911 Communications Center; the Pacific Gas and Electric Las Gallinas substation; and several Marin Emergency Radio Authority (MERA) towers lie in a high FHSZ and could be susceptible to a wildfire. Pockets of San Rafael including the area around San Pedro Hill and Harry A. Berbier Memorial Park lies in a moderate FHSZ and could be susceptible to a wildfire. This area includes hundreds of residences; part of downtown including numerous businesses, the Marin Academy and the Saint Raphael School; numerous medical facilities; part of the Terra Linda High School; part of the Star Academy; the John Duckett Pump Station; part of the Kaiser Permanente San Rafael Medical Center; the San Rafael Fire Station #56, part of the Pacific Gas and Electric yard; part of the Central Marin Sanitation Agency Wastewater Treatment Plant; several MERA towers; and the radio tower for the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District and the Ross Valley Sanitary District. All of San Rafael could be impacted by a Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) event and/or suffer poor air quality from smoke as a result of a wildfire in Marin County or the surrounding region. As wildland areas around San Rafael become drier due to climate change, the risk of a wildfire occurring and impacting the town will continue to increase. Fires in the town may increase over time as marshlands, parks, and other open spaces experience drier conditions. San Rafael has never had a major wildfire cause significant damage to life or property. However, vegetation fires in San Rafael Open space and along roadways are an annual occurrence. On 11/2/2023, a quarter–acre grass fire burned on San Rafael Hill. The fire was reported at about 2:30 a.m. near the San Rafael Elks Lodge west of Robert Dollar Drive. Firefighters controlled the blaze within about 20 minutes. No one was evacuated. The cause appeared to be related to unhoused encampments or related activity, due to personal belongings found in the vicinity. The fire’s slow rate of spread was influenced by defensible space cleared by the San Rafael Fire Department. On 10/18/2023, a vegetation fire broke out on San Rafael Hill near Mountain Park. The blaze burned a roughly 40 by 40 square foot area off Coleman Avenue, between Graceland Drive and Vineyard Drive. The fire happened ahead of a broad heat advisory set to take effect and a few l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-125 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE hours before a controlled burn was scheduled to take place on the Mount Tamalpais Watershed. On 6/6/2022, a vegetation fire burned two acres and prompted home evacuations. The fire in the Dominican-Black Canyon neighborhood was reported at 9:50 p.m. in a eucalyptus grove on a steep hillside between Deer Park Avenue and Highland Avenue. Residents from five structures were asked to evacuate during the fire. The homes were threatened, but not damaged. The nearby Dominican University campus was not evacuated. On 9/1/2021, residents had to evacuate a section of Lucas Valley near San Rafael after a vegetation fire broke out on a hillside. The fire was reported at about 2:10 p.m. near Mount Lassen Drive. It grew to about 30 acres. Flames burned uphill away from homes. The evacuation zone included the area north of Lucas Valley Road between Las Gallinas Avenue and Bridgegate Drive and north to Marinwood open space. The cause was under investigation. On 6/9/2018, a vegetation fire ignited in the hills of San Rafael north of downtown, burning in Boyd Memorial Park near Highway 101. The fire was first reported at 3:25 p.m. Evacuation orders weren’t issued, but residents in the area were encouraged to shelter in place at one point. The cause was under investigation. The fire moved at a moderate speed and consumed grass and other “flashy fuels” that ignite easily and burn quickly. Figure 57599: 2018 San Rafael Wildfire in Boyd Memorial Park Source: SF Gate On 1/24/2014, a brush fire raced through an east San Rafael marsh behind the Sonnen BMW dealership near Kerner and East Francisco boulevards and Shoreline Parkway, shooting flames 20 feet high as three acres burned. The blaze was doused within 45 minutes. No structures were threatened and no one was injured, but the brush and pampas grass fire was more dangerous than usual. Officials believe sharp “popping” sounds coming from the blaze came from ammunition bursting in the heat. Two people were seen fleeing as firefighters arrived. The fire was apparently the result of a homeless encampment situation. Firefighters had responded to well over 20 brush fires triggered by homeless encampments over the past several months in the area. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-126 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 58: City of San Rafael Wildfire Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Source: Marin County OEM l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e San Anselmo • Dams • Military and Civil Defense In stallations Comm uni cation Fac ilities El ectric Power Facil ities Wastewater Facilities • Wa ter Supply Facilities Marin County / San Rafael Fire Severity ' EMERGENCY • OIIICIOI • • : MANAGEMENT Ir -NOC j • Legend Airports Fire Severity Zone 7-Emergency Operations -Very High Centers Fire Stations Hi gh 0 0 .5 2 Mode rate Made Miles Hospitals an d Med ica l swee Facilities Non·Wild lan d/Non· 6 Urban Marin County OEM / Woody Baker-Cohn Police / Sheriff Stations D Urban Unzoned Schoo ls email: OEM _GIS @Mari nCounty.org Date Printed : 11/01/23 N County of Marin, California State Parks , Esri, HERE, Garmin, SafeGraph, GeoTechnologies, Inc, METI/NASA, USGS, Bureau of Land anagement, EPA, NPS , USDA 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-127 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Climate Change and Future Development Considerations Climate change can lead to an increase in wildfire events. Climate change has been a key factor in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the western United States. Changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions. Increased drought, and a longer fire season are boosting these increases in wildfire risk. Figure 59: Trends in the Annual Number of Large Wildfires in the United States Source: Fourth Climate Change Assessment As summer conditions in Northern California become hotter and drier due to climate change, the occurrence and severity of wildfires will only increase. The Marin County OA including San Rafael is particularly susceptible to these future impacts of climate change on wildfire, as the OA’s climate has generally been wet enough historically to avoid major wildfires. Extreme heat events and high wind events could cause electrical systems to become overloaded and fail, sparking wildfires. An increase in wildfires as a result of climate change could lead to more significantly burned areas that could contribute to debris flows after a significant storm event, particularly in the open space areas around San Rafael. Future development in the WUI throughout San Rafael will expose more people and property to the impacts of a potentially significant wildfire. The growing number of people in the San Rafael WUI can increase risk to life, property and public health as a result of a wildfire. Future development around the San Rafael open space parks and marshlands would expose more people to the effects of brush fires as those natural areas dry out in the summer due to climate change. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e g All Regions ~ l hlllu11l1~1lli1,ll11J 1984 1992 2000 2008 i ~f m/Kl,~th/C•~•d• Mio, ~ o J'.f"= ill 1984 19'92 2doo 2do8 i ~f "'' P1,;,1tol,mb;, P1,1,., j 0 19184 1992 2doo 2do8 a Bas in and Range I:~ 0 1....1;9'84=:;:::, =1::;:9'9=2===20:;:::'o=o =2=0;:::108= Med iterranean California ;,l . ,992 • 2000 • 2008 ;(ky Mo,OQ;o, 1984 1992 2o'oo . 0 Warm Deserts co 0 v 2o'o8 199 2 2000 2008 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-128 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE SECTION 3.0: MITIGATION STRATEGY 3.1 CHANGES IN DEVELOPMENT The overall hazard mitigation priorities in the City of San Rafael have not changed since the 2018 MJHMP update. Marin County understands that hazard exposure may occur in areas of new development, however, the county feels current building standards, municipal codes, and regulations will provide adequate mitigation against hazard vulnerability. The strategies that support the overall city priorities have changed since the 2018 MJHMP and are reflected in the sections below. There were many projects that were either ongoing day-to- day activities or were response related that were deleted from the 2018 MJHMP project list and not carried over to this plan update. Several actions were completed, and new projects were added to coincide with the changes in priorities, progress in local mitigation efforts and changes in development. It is tremendously important to San Rafael residents that growth is well managed and harmonious with community needs. New development and other physical alterations must respect the character and scale of the city. Change and development should be accomplished in ways that enhance and blend with San Rafael’s existing physical and social qualities. Development should respect the physical fabric of the city, while improving its social fabric through new housing and economic opportunities that reach all residents. The City of San Rafael General Plan 2040 leaves in place most zoning standards but makes a few important changes. New Downtown zoning will enable higher densities and more housing without losing the area’s hometown character. Northgate Mall and its environs will retain their General Plan Map designations, but policies are more emphatic about future changes that respond to retail trends, the desire for a North San Rafael Town Center, and the need for housing. Greater investment in the Canal area and Southeast San Rafael will improve living conditions for many residents, provide job opportunities, and create additional revenue, while responding to the challenges of rising sea level. Intentionally guiding growth allows areas needing improvement to be enhanced without reducing neighborhood quality. Though new housing laws at the state level have exempted much residential development from the CEQA process; those laws have preserved all life safety requirements of the building and fire codes. When not usurped by State law, future land use and growth strategies in the City of San Rafael will be consistent with priorities detailed in the 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP and aim to concentrate future development in already developed areas and away from locations where natural characteristics should be avoided such as steep slopes and sensitive habitats. Priority areas for development are those that have, or can readily be supplied with, adequate public facilities and services. This is done through various policies relating to zoning and minimum development standards and requirements. Zoning designations prescribe allowed land uses and minimum lot sizes for the purpose of supporting efficient infrastructure design, conservation of natural resources, and avoidance of conflicting uses. As detailed in the "Climate Change and Future Development Considerations" section of each hazard profile, development in San Rafael has occurred and will continue to occur throughout the town in areas prone to all of its identified hazards. Increased growth in these areas may increase the vulnerability of people and structures to these hazards. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-129 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 22: City of San Rafael Projected Growth Areas Project Location # of Units # of Parce ls Project Date Acres Fire Severity Zone Flood Zone 1130 Mission Ave 13 2 2018 .40 NA X 980 Lincoln Ave 38 1 2018 .42 NA AH 21 G ST 1 1 2018 .04 NA X 809 B ST 41 3 2018 .57 NA X 21 G Street 1 1 2019 .04 NA X 215 Belle Avenue 4 3 2019 .28 NA X 1010 Northgate Drive 0 1 2019 6.94 NA X 703 3rd Street 0 1 2019 .16 NA AH 1628 5th Avenue 9 1 2019 0.2 NA X 496 B Street 6 1 2020 .14 NA AE 980 Lincoln Avenue 38 1 2020 .42 NA AH 999 Third Street 5 1 2020 .10 NA X 350 Merrydale Road 0 1 2020 2.08 NA X 104 Shaver Street 1 1 2020 .14 NA X 190 Mill Street 41 1 2020 .33 NA AE 815 B Street 41 2 2020 .29 NA X 496 B Street 6 1 2021 .14 NA AE 1628 5TH AVE units 1-9 9 1 2021 .2 NA X 21 G ST 1 1 2021 .04 NA X 1200 IRWIN ST 15 3 2021 .62 NA X 815 B Street 41 2 2021 .29 NA X 190 Mill Street 41 1 2021 .33 NA AE 1628 5TH AVE units 1-9 9 1 2022 .2 NA X 999 3rd Street 5 1 2022 .10 NA X 1380 Lincoln Avenue 9 1 2022 .22 NA X Los Gamos Drive - - 2022 - - - 55 Brookdale Avenue 10 1 2022 .2 NA X 88 Vivian Street 0 1 2022 2.41 NA AE Total 2524 28 165.37 Table 305: City of San Rafael Future Growth Areas Source: City of San Rafael 3.2 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT The overall priorities in the City of San Rafael have not changed since the 2018 MJHMP update. However, the strategies in which to support the overall City priorities have changed and are reflected in the sections below. There were many projects that were either ongoing day-to -day business activities or were response related that were completed or deleted from the 2018 MJHMP project list and not carried over to this plan update. Several actions were completed and new projects were added to coincide with the changes in priorities, progress in local mitigation efforts and changes in development. Capabilities are the programs and polices currently in use to reduce hazard impacts or that could be used to implement hazard mitigation activities. The capability assessment identifies the local planning mechanisms where information from the 2018 MJHMP is incorporated and where updated hazard mitigation information from this 2023 MJHMP will be incorporated once -===-t+:=f:===t:==f=~r-f-= =====--= -==1t====t-~=t=-±==t-_t---- 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-130 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE approved. The 2018 capability assessments have been successfully incorporated into the City of San Rafael General Plan to include the Public Safety Element, Land Use Element, and Housing Element and the 2023 capability assessments will also be incorporated into the General Plan and these Elements. The capability assessment is divided into four sections: regulatory, administrative and technical, fiscal, and outreach and partnerships. 3.2.1 REGULATORY CAPABILITIES The legal and regulatory capabilities include existing ordinances and codes that affect the City’s physical or built environment. Examples of legal and/or regulatory capabilities can include: a jurisdiction’s building codes, zoning ordinances, subdivision ordnances, special purpose ordinances, growth management ordinances, site plan review, general plans, capital improvement plans, economic development plans, emergency response plans, and real estate disclosure plans. The table below lists regulatory mitigation capabilities, including planning and land management tools, typically used by local jurisdictions to implement hazard mitigation activities and indicates those that are in place. Table 33: City of San Rafael Legal and Regulatory Capabilities Plans Yes/No Latest Update Does the plan/program address hazards? Does the plan identify projects to include in the mitigation strategy? Can the plan be used to implement mitigation actions? General Plan Y 2021 The City General Plan ‘2040’ was adopted in 2021, which serves as a basis for decisions that affect the City’s growth and development such as transportation, land use, streets and infrastructure, parks, housing and neighborhoods, recreation and community facilities, downtown, the environment, public health and safety, and flooding. The General Plan is a strategic and long-term document identifying goals and polices that guide and direct the City in terms of implementing policies, programs, resources and hazard mitigation actions. Strategic Plan Y City has approved annual goals and objectives and general plan. Capital Improvements Plan Y City staff develops a Capital Improvement Program (CIP) for council consideration, which serves as a multi-year planning tool to coordinate the financing and scheduling of major projects to improve and maintain its infrastructure. The CIP directs construction activities for City owned facilities and infrastructure for the next five years. Mitigation actions may involve construction of new or upgraded facilities and infrastructure. Economic Development Plan Y Draft developed in 2023. Local Emergency Operations Plan Y 2023 These plans inform priority mitigation actions and programs. The City has updated its EOP and was adopted by City Council in October of 2023 Continuity of Operations Plan N Tentatively scheduled for development in late 2024 Flood Mitigation Plan (FMP) N City may consider increased staffing for floodplain activities. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-131 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Engineering Studies for Streams N Open Space Management Plan Y Minor with fuller plan in Progress Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) N City has no specific plan or role in transportation. Relies on County/Agency specific plans. Stormwater Management Plan/Program Y Engineering Studies for Streams N Community Wildfire Protection Plan Y 2020 Marin County has a CWPP last updated in 2020 and the City has our 38 point 2020 Wildfire Prevention and Protection Action Plan Other special plans (e.g., brownfields redevelopment, disaster recovery, coastal zone management, climate change adaptation) Y Various Building Code, Permitting, and Inspections Y/N Are codes adequately enforced? Development Standards Y Title 12 – Building Regulations Title 14 – Building Code and Zoning Building Code Effectiveness Grading Schedule (BCEGS) Score Y Classification 3 (1 and 2 family dwellings) and 3 (all other) Fire department ISO rating: Y ISO 1 Site plan review requirements Y As relevant to the permit Land Use Planning and Ordinances Y/N Is the ordinance an effective measure for reducing hazard impacts? Is the ordinance adequately administered and enforced? Municipal Code Y Yes, subdivision ordinance, floodplain ordinance, stormwater ordinance Chapter 4.12 – Citywide Vegetation Standards Title 7 – Emergency Services Title 12 – Building Regulations Title 14 – Building Code and Zoning Title 15 – Subdivisions Title 17 – Waters and Waterways Title 18 – Protection of Flood Hazard Areas Title 19 – Open Space Zoning Ordinance Y The Zoning Ordinance sets forth regulations and standards for development to ensure that the policies, goals, and objectives of the General Plan are carried out. Rezoning can be initiated by the City Council, Planning Commission, or by an individual property owner. Subdivision ordinance Y City Ordinance Title 15 – Subdivisions l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-132 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Floodplain ordinance Y City Ordinance Title 18 – Protection of Flood Hazard Areas Clean Storm Water Ordinance Y City Ordinance Title 17 – Waters and Waterways Natural hazard-specific ordinance (stormwater, steep slope, wildfire) Y Citywide Vegetation Standards Flood insurance rate maps No Elevation Certificates No Acquisition of land for open space and public recreation uses Y City Ordinance Title 19 – Open Space Erosion or sediment control program Unk Plans Yes/No Latest Update Does the plan/program address hazards? Does the plan identify projects to include in the mitigation strategy? Can the plan be used to implement mitigation actions? Comprehensive/Master Plan Y 2020 The City General Plan ‘2020’ was adopted in 2004 and been amended several times since. The City is currently undergoing its next General Plan update ‘2040’ and community workshops are being held. Strategic Plan Y City has approved annual goals and objectives and general plan Capital Improvements Plan Y City staff develops a Capital Improvement Program (CIP) for council consideration, which serves as a multi-year planning tool to coordinate the financing and scheduling of major projects to improve and maintain its infrastructure. The CIP directs construction activities for City owned facilities and infrastructure for the next five years. Mitigation actions may involve construction of new or upgraded facilities and infrastructure. Table 306: City of San Rafael Legal and Regulatory Capabilities Source: City of San Rafael City of San Rafael General Plan or Master Plan California Government Code 65300 requires that every City and County in the state have a General Plan. The City of San Rafael General Plan, adopted in 10/27/2020, was prepared over a 12 -year period that included an extensive public review process. The General Plan is the most important policy and planning document in the city and is used by virtually every department. The General Plan is the City's statement of its vision for the future. The General Plan contains policies covering every aspect of the City: land use (how land can be developed), circulation, noise, air quality, housing, open space and conservation, and health and safety. City of San Rafael specific goals and policies related to mitigation of natural hazards are as follows: City may consider increased staffing for floodplain management activities. City may consider increased staffing for floodplain management activities. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-133 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 34: City of San Rafael General Plan Goal/Policy/ Program The San Rafael general plan is the planning guideline for the future of a city. It contains goals, and policies describing the community's vision for economic viability, livable neighborhoods, and environmental protection. Land Use Element Goal The Land Use Element includes policies guiding the physical form of the city and provides direction on growth management, development, and land use compatibility. It includes the San Rafael Land Use Map, which shows the location and intensity of land uses envisioned for the future. The Element identifies those areas of the city where change will be encouraged as well as those areas where existing uses will be maintained and enhanced. The intent is to direct growth and reinvestment strategically, reinforcing San Rafael’s best qualities while revitalizing areas in need of improvement. Goal 1: Well-Managed Growth and Change - Grow and change in a way that serves community needs, protects the environment, improves fiscal stability, and enhances the quality of life. Goal 2: A Complete Community - San Rafael is a complete community, with balanced and diverse land uses. Goal 3: Distinctive Neighborhoods - Create and sustain neighborhoods of integrity and distinctive character Policy This plan will guide policy decisions. Program NA Conservation and Open Space Element Goal The Conservation and Climate Change portion of the San Rafael General Plan addresses the management of San Rafael’s natural resources, including soil, minerals, water, air, vegetation, and wildlife. It identifies environmentally sensitive areas in the city and includes policies for their long-term protection. Goal 1 of Conservation – Supporting our natural communities. Goal 2 of conservation – Clean air. Goal 3 of conservation – Clean water Goal 4 of conservation - Management of sustainable energy Goal 5 of conservation – Reduce Greenhouse emissions. Open space defines neighborhood edges and provides a necessary complement to the built environment coordination is a critical part of park and open space management in San Rafael. As noted above, the City is one of several service providers. Others include the County of Marin/Marin Open Space District, the State of California, the Marinwood Community Service District, San Rafael City Schools, and the Miller Creek School District. Goal of Open Space: Protected, Well-Managed Open Space - Manage San Rafael’s open spaces for all to enjoy Policy Program PROS-3.1A: Criteria for Open Space Protection - Environmental health and safety issues and potential geologic and seismic hazards. a)Aesthetics (visual backdrop or edge, unique site features, shoreline, ridgelines). b)Wildlife resource value (wetlands, creeks, and riparian areas, wildlife habitat and movement c)corridors, and habitat for special status species). d)Ability to sequester carbon and mitigate potential climate-related impacts, including reduction e)of wildfire hazard, drought resilience, and protection from sea-level rise. f)Importance to the community as a whole and/or adjoining neighborhoods. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-134 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 34: City of San Rafael General Plan Goal/Policy/ Program The San Rafael general plan is the planning guideline for the future of a city. It contains goals, and policies describing the community's vision for economic viability, livable neighborhoods, and environmental protection. g)Merits of alternative uses. h)Ability to connect existing open spaces. i)Potential for recreational uses and/or environmental education, especially for economically j)disadvantaged communities. Program PROS-3.3A: Open Space Management Plan a)Hazard reduction, in accordance with ecologically sound practices and wildfire science, including removal of highly flammable invasive species, emergency access, and erosion control. This should be closely coordinated with ongoing efforts by the San Rafael and Marin County Fire Departments, Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority, CalFIRE, and non-profit organizations such as FireSafe Marin. Program NA Public Safety Goal An overarching goal of this is to reduce the economic and social dislocation associated with environmental hazards. Risks can be reduced by considering natural hazards in land use and development decisions, and by implementing policies and programs to reduce losses to life and property. This is especially important for San Rafael’s most vulnerable populations, who may find themselves in harm’s way without the resources to prepare, respond, and recover. Goal 1 – A safe and more resilient city - Minimize San Rafael’s vulnerability to the impacts of hazards and emergencies. Goal 2 – Resilience to geological Hazards - Minimize potential risks associated with geologic hazards, including earthquake-induced ground. shaking and liquefaction, landslides, mudslides, erosion, sedimentation, and settlement. Goal 3 – Resilience to Flooding and Sea Level Rise - Recognize, plan for, and successfully adapt to the anticipated effects of increased flooding and sea level rise. Goal 4 – A Fire-Safe Community - Minimize injury, loss of life, and damage to property resulting from wildland fire hazards. Goal 5 – Protection from Hazardous Materials - Protect those who live, work, and visit San Rafael from risks associated with hazards. materials Goal 6 – Emergency Preparedness - Improve disaster preparedness, resiliency, response, and recovery. Policy a)Policy S-1.1: Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) b)Policy S-1.2: Location of Future Development c)Policy S-1.3: Location of Public Improvements d)Policy S-1.4: Public Health Emergencies e)Policy S-2.1: Seismic Safety of New Buildings f)Policy S-2.2: Minimize the Potential Effects of Landslides g)Policy S-2.3: Seismic Safety of Existing Buildings h)Policy S-2.4: Post-Earthquake Inspections i)Policy S-2.5: Erosion Control l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-135 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 34: City of San Rafael General Plan Goal/Policy/ Program The San Rafael general plan is the planning guideline for the future of a city. It contains goals, and policies describing the community's vision for economic viability, livable neighborhoods, and environmental protection. j)Policy S-3.1: Sea Level Rise Prediction Map k)Policy S-3.2: Data Consistency l)Policy S-3.3: Awareness and Disclosure m)Policy S-3.4: Mitigating Flooding and Sea Level Rise Impacts n)Policy S-4.1: Wildfire Hazards a.Program S-4.1A: Wildfire Prevention and Protection Action Plan b.Program S-4.1B: Fire Hazard Maps o)Policy S-4.2: Fire Resilience in Developed Areas p)Policy S-4.3: New Development in Fire Hazard Areas q)Policy S-5.1: Hazardous Waste Management r)Policy S-6.1: Disaster Preparedness Planning s)Policy S-6.2: Neighborhood Disaster Preparedness Programs t)Policy S-6.3: Improving Evacuation Capacity u)Policy S-6.4: Emergency Operations Centers Program NA Public Facilities Element Goal The Community Services and Infrastructure Element addresses schools, libraries, law enforcement, fire and emergency medical services, water, sewer, storm drainage, solid waste, energy, and telecommunication facilities in San Rafael. Goal CSI-1: Educational Excellence - Promote excellent schools and high-quality, equitable education. Goal CSI-2: Modern, Welcoming Libraries that Meet Community Needs - Enhance library services and facilities to meet the informational and recreational needs of the community. Goal CSI-3: Exceptional Public Safety Services - Provide and maintain exceptional fire, public safety, and paramedic services. Goal CSI-4: Reliable, Efficiently Managed Infrastructure - Support reliable, cost-effective, well-maintained, safe, and resilient infrastructure and utility services. Goal CSI-5: Sound Municipal Financial Practices- Maintain sound financial practices and sufficient revenue sources to provide high-quality City services Policy a)Policy CSI-5.1: Cost-Benefit Analysis b)Policy CSI-5.2: Transparent Budgeting c)Policy CSI-5.3: Program Assessments d)Policy CSI-5.4: Diversifying Funding Sources e)Policy CSI-5.5: Local Government Partnerships Policy CSI-5.6: Public-Private Partnerships Program NA Table 307: City of San Rafael General Plan Source: City of San Rafael General Plan l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-136 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 3.2.2 ADMINISTRATIVE AND TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES The administrative and technical capability identifies the City personnel responsible for activities related to mitigation and loss prevention. Many positions are full time and/or filled by the same person. The City may consider opportunities for future additional training and increased staffing. Table 35: City of San Rafael Administrative and Technical Capabilities Administrative Yes/No Is coordination effective? Administrative Services Y The Administrative Services Department handles finance and purchasing, budgeting, risk management, information technology, and business licensing for the community. The department may be responsible for implementing mitigation actions related to the department’s scope. Planning Commission Y The Planning Commission consists of citizen volunteers appointed by the City Council to make decisions or advise the Council on land use and property development issues. The Commission assures that new development is consistent with our long-range General Plan, State laws and other public policies that advance the interests of our community. Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee Y The City participates in the Marin County Multi- Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee which meets quarterly to review and manage Hazard Mitigation projects and programs. Maintenance programs to reduce risk (e.g., tree trimming, clearing drainage systems) Y The City of San Rafael utilized MWPA funds to conduct various levels of vegetation removal. Removal is based on the SRMC. The Department of Public Works maintains drainages with annual surveys and clearing. Mutual aid agreements Y San Rafael is part of the greater Marin County mutual aid agreement system. Technical Yes/No Has capability been used to assess/mitigate risk in the past? Warning systems/services (Reverse 911, outdoor warning signals) Y Utilizes the emergency warning systems through the EAS system as their primary warning capability. Utilizes the emergency warning systems through telephone notification utilizing reverse 911. Hazard data and information N Grant writing N Hazard analysis Y San Rafael took part in the county-wide wildfire evacuation Risk assessment. Staff/Personnel Resources Yes/No FT/ PT Is staffing adequate to enforce regulations? Is staff trained on hazards and mitigation? Is coordination between agencies and staff effective? Chief Building Official Y/FT This position in San Rafael is adequately staffed to enforce regulations. The Chief Building official helps the city develop and enforce building standards such as WUI code. The Building Department works in l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-137 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE coordination with other departments such as Public Works, Fire to develop standards. Floodplain Administrator Y/PT Emergency Manager Y/FT The City has Staff assigned to Emergency Management Planning, Response, Recovery, and Mitigation. Community Development Y/FT Develops and maintains the General Plan, including the Safety Element. Develops area plans based on the General Plan, to provide more specific guidance for the development of more specific areas. Reviews private development projects and proposed capital improvements projects and other physical projects involving property for consistency and conformity with the General Plan. Civil Engineer Y/FT San Rafael staffs a team of civil engineers to help with the continuation of both short and long-term projects related to hazard mitigation. GIS Coordinator Y/PT The city staffs a part-time GIS specialist. City Planning, Building, and Public Works Staff Y/FT These departments are responsible for planning and building-related activities including issuing permits, conducting environmental reviews, preparing planning documents, and addressing housing issues. Mitigation activities related to planning and building can be implemented by this department. The Public Works Department is responsible for City-owned infrastructure, including streets, bike lanes and sidewalks, storm drains, traffic signals, and streetlights. Mitigation actions involving new or retrofitted public infrastructure, as well as those related to water conservation, fall within the purview of the Public Works Department. Police Department Staff Y/FT The San Rafael Police Department conducts emergency preparedness activities for the community. Mitigation activities related to emergency preparedness can be implemented by the Police Department. Fire Department Staff Y/FT The San Rafael Fire Department has responsibility for fire suppression and emergency response in commercial, residential, wildland / urban interface, and parts of the city. The Fire Department supports the implementation of mitigation actions that reduce the risk of wildfire. Chief Building Official Y/FT This position in San Rafael is adequately staffed to enforce regulations. The Chief Building official helps the city develop and enforce building standards such as the WUI code. The Building Department works in coordination with other departments such as Public Works, and Fire to develop standards. Table 308: City of San Rafael Administrative and Technical Capabilities Source: City of San Rafael Yes, Public Works Director l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-138 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 3.2.3 FISCAL CAPABILITIES The fiscal capability assessment shows specific financial and budgetary tools available to the jurisdictions such as community development block grants; capital improvements project funding; authority to levy taxes for specific purposes; fees for water, sewer, gas, or electric services; impact fees for homebuyers or developers for new development; ability to incur debt through general obligations bonds; and withholding spending in hazard-prone areas. Table 36: City of San Rafael Fiscal Capabilities Financial Yes/No Has the funding resource been used in past and for what type of activities? Could the resource be used to fund future mitigation actions? Capital improvements project funding Y Funding has not been used in the past for mitigation, but could possibly fund future mitigation activities. Authority to levy taxes for specific purposes Y Funding has not been used in the past for mitigation, but could possibly fund future mitigation activities. Fees for water, sewer, gas, or electric services Y Funding has not been used in the past for mitigation, but could possibly fund future mitigation activities. Impact fees for new development Y Funding has not been used in the past for mitigation, but could possibly fund future mitigation activities. Stormwater utility fee N Incur debt through general obligation bonds and/or special tax bonds Y Funding has not been used in the past for mitigation, but could possibly fund future mitigation activities. Incur debt through private activities N Community Development Block Grant Y Funding has not been used in the past for mitigation, but could possibly fund future mitigation activities. Other federal funding programs Y Funding has not been used in the past for mitigation, but could possibly fund future mitigation activities. State funding programs Y Funding has not been used in the past for mitigation, but could possibly fund future mitigation activities. Table 309: City of San Rafael Fiscal Capabilities Source: City of San Rafael l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-139 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 3.2.4 COMMUNITY OUTREACH The outreach and partnerships capability assessment shows outreach and public education programs available to the City of San Rafael and the City of San Rafael partnerships utilized to promote those programs. Table 37: City of San Rafael Community Outreach Outreach and Partnerships Yes/No Could the program/organization help implement future mitigation activities? Local citizen groups or non-profit organizations focused on environmental protection, emergency preparedness, access and functional needs populations, etc. Y Community Emergency Response Team, Marin Conservation League, City of San Rafael Climate Action Team Ongoing public education or information program (e.g., responsible water use, fire safety, household preparedness, environmental education) Y County Household Hazardous Waste Program, MCSTOPP, Marin County Environmental Health Services, The Bay Institute Natural disaster or safety related school programs N StormReady certification N Firewise Communities certification Y Yes Community Rating System Y Yes Public-private partnership initiatives addressing disaster-related issues Y The Get Ready program, developed in Marin County, is a free 2-hour course provided to the community. The course is designed to help residents plan for an emergency with a family plan, evacuation checklist, and strategies to keep residents and their families safe. (https://readymarin.org/get-ready/) Table 310: City of San Rafael Community Outreach Source: City of San Rafael City Emergency Management may consider opportunities work with the school district to support disaster education. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-140 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 3.2.5 PARTICIPATION IN THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM Given the flood hazard in the planning area, an emphasis will be placed on continued compliance with the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Detailed below is a description of City of San Rafael’s flood management program to ensure continued compliance with the NFIP. City of San Rafael has participated in the Regular Phase of the NFIP since July 31, 1971. Since then, the City of San Rafael has administered floodplain management regulations that meet or exceed the minimum requirements of the NFIP. Under that arrangement, residents and businesses paid the same flood insurance premium rates as most other communities. The Community Rating System (CRS) was created to recognize floodplain management activities that are above and beyond the NFIP’s minimum requirements. The City of San Rafael does not currently participate in the CRS program. As part of the City’s efforts to comply with NFIP, the City of San Rafael will make updates and revisions to these regulations periodically to ensure they are most effective at minimizing the threat of harm from flood events. These updates and revisions may be promoted by changes in local demographics, shifts in land use, changes to flood regimes such as frequency and intensity of flood events, and other factors that may warrant action. The City will also continue to incorporate any changes to the locations and designations of mapped floodplains into future planning documents, including future updates to this Plan. The City of San Rafael will also explore opportunities to enforce or enhance City municipal codes, building code, and other regulatory actions to address substantial improvements/ substantial damage properties. The City of San Rafael will consider developing a Substantial Damage Management Plan. In addition to the capabilities in the municipal code regarding floodplains, the City of San Rafael has additional capabilities. Table 38 shows the City of San Rafael participation in and continued compliance with the NFIP, as well as identify areas for improvement that could be potential mitigation actions. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-141 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 38: City of San Rafael NFIP Status NFIP Topic Comments Insurance Summary How many NFIP policies are in the community? What is the total premium and coverage? 1,011 policies in force in the City of San Rafael with $15,310,152 in premiums, resulting in $313,460,800 of insurance in force. How many claims have been paid in the community? What is the total amount of paid claims? How many of the claims were for substantial damage? There have been 588 closed paid losses totaling $6,147,345. There were 7 severe repetitive loss properties in the City of San Rafael totaling $950,071.78 How many structures are exposed to flood risk within the community? *“flood risk” is defined as the 1% annual chance flood (100-year flood. Numbers are from overlay of FEMA SFHA and building stock data. The exact number of structures within the SFHA is unknown due to limited GIS capabilities; however, as of 2016 there were 2,926 improved parcels within the SFHA. Describe any areas of flood risk with limited NFIP policy coverage According to FEMA the estimated insurance penetration rate in the SFHA in Marin County is 39.596%. While an equivalent estimate is not available specifically for the City of San Rafael there are certain demographics that are more likely to be underinsured or uninsured including: elderly residents who no longer have a mortgage, undocumented residents, renters, subletters, small businesses with limited cashflow. Staff Resources Is the Community Floodplain Administrator or NFIP Coordinator certified? The City’s Climate Adaptation and Resilience Planner is a CFM. Is floodplain management an auxiliary function? Yes Provide an explanation of NFIP administration services (e.g., permit review, GIS, education or outreach, inspections, engineering capability) Public works staff review permits for compliance with NFIP requirements prior to issuance. What are the barriers to running an effective NFIP program in the community, if any? None. Compliance History Is the community in good standing with the NFIP? Yes Are there any outstanding compliance issues (i.e., current violations)? There are no outstanding compliance issues that are known to the City. When was the most recent Community Assistance Visit (CAV) or Community Assistance Contact (CAC)? The date of the most recent CAV or CAC is unknown. Is a CAV or CAC scheduled or needed? No Regulation When did the community enter the NFIP? 07/31/71 Are the FIRMs digital or paper? Digital l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-142 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Do floodplain development regulations meet or exceed FEMA or State minimum requirements? If so, in what ways? Floodplain development regulations comply with FEMA and State minimum requirements. Provide an explanation of the permitting process. Development permits that are submitted to the City are reviewed by trained staff for compliance with applicable NFIP requirements. Community Rating System (CRS) Does the community participate in CRS? No What is the community’s CRS Class Ranking? N/A What categories and activities provide CRS points and how can the class be improved? N/A Does the plan include CRS planning requirements N/A Table 311: City of San Rafael NFIP Status Source: FEMA, City of San Rafael NFIP Insurance Coverage Details City of San Rafael joined the NFIP on July 31, 1971. The City of San Rafael does not participate in the Community Rating System. NFIP insurance data provided by FEMA indicates that as of 06/21/2023, there were 1,011 policies in force in the City of San Rafael with $15,310,152 in premiums, resulting in $313,460,800 of insurance in force. There have been 588 closed paid losses totaling $6,147,345. There were 46 repetitive loss structures in the City. Thirty-nine were in A zones, and 2 were in B, C, or X zones, and the remainder are unknown. There were seven severe repetitive loss properties in the City of San Rafael totaling $950,071.78. Repetitive Loss Properties Repetitive loss records are as follows: •Number of FEMA-identified Repetitive-Loss Properties: 46 •Number of FEMA-identified Severe-Repetitive-Loss Properties: 7 •Number of Repetitive-Loss Properties or Severe-Repetitive-Loss Properties that have been mitigated: 0 •Repetitive Loss Residential Structures: 46 •Repetitive Loss Non-Residential Structures: 0 •Severe Repetitive Loss Residential Structures: 4 •Severe Repetitive Loss Non-Residential Structures: 3 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-143 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 3.3 MITIGATION GOALS The information developed from the risk assessment was used as the primary basis for developing mitigation goals and objectives. Mitigation goals are defined as general guidelines explaining what each jurisdiction wants to achieve in terms of hazard and loss prevention. Hazard Risk Prioritization Mitigation Goals & Objectives Mitigation Project Identification Mitigation Project Implementation Goal statements are typically long-range, policy-oriented statements representing jurisdiction- wide visions. Objectives are statements that detail how each jurisdiction’s goals will be achieved, and typically define strategies or implementation steps to attain identified goals. Other important inputs to the development of jurisdiction-level goals and objectives include performing reviews of existing local plans, policy documents, and regulations for consistency and complementary goals, as well as soliciting input from the public. The following represents overarching strategic goals associated with the identification and eventual implementation of appropriate and meaningful hazard mitigation efforts in relation to prioritized hazards and threats confronting the Marin County OA. These goals form the basis for specific supporting process objectives and are shown from the highest priority, at the top of the list, to those of lesser importance. The establishment of hazard mitigation goals represents both individual and collective strategies that have been mutually agreed upon by the Steering Committee and have changed with the 2023 MJHMP update. Objectives were added to Goals 2 and 5. Eventually, these goals have been adopted by the Marin County OA as the guiding policy behind local hazard mitigation efforts, in conjunction with other associated principles. Goals were defined for the purpose of this mitigation plan as broad-based public policy statements that: •Represent basic desires of the community; •Encompass all aspects of community, public and private; •Are nonspecific, in that they refer to the quality (not the quantity) of the outcome; •Are future-oriented, in that they are achievable in the future; and •A time -independent, in that they are not scheduled events. Goals are stated without regard to implementation. Implementation cost, schedule, and means are not considered. Goals are defined before considering how to accomplish them so that they are not dependent on the means of achievement. Goal statements form the basis for objectives 44 CFR Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(i) [The hazard mi�ga�on strategy shall include a] descrip�on of mi�ga�on goals to reduce or avoid long‐term vulnerabili�es to the iden�fied hazards. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~---~ ~ARIN ~ 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-144 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE and actions that will be used as means to achieve the goals. Objectives define strategies to attain the goals and are more specific and measurable. Goal 1: Minimize risk and vulnerability of the community to the impacts of natural hazards and protect lives and reduce damages and losses to property, economy, and environment in the Marin County OA. •Minimize economic and resource impacts and promote long-term viability and sustainability of resources throughout the Marin County OA. •Minimize impact to both existing and future development. •Provide protection for public health. •Prevent and reduce wildfire risk and related losses. Goal 2: Provide protection for critical facilities, infrastructure, utilities, and services from hazard impacts. •Incorporate defensible space and reduce hazard vulnerability. •Develop redundancies in utilities and services. •Enhance resilience through enhanced construction. Goal 3: Improve public awareness, education, and preparedness for hazards that threaten our communities. •Enhance public outreach and participation in the Alert Marin Emergency Notification System. •Enhance public outreach, education, and preparedness program to include all hazards of concern. •Increase public knowledge about the risk and vulnerability to identified hazards and their recommended responses to disaster events, including evacuation and sheltering options. •Provide planning and coordination for "At-Risk" populations. •Provide planning and coordination for companion animals, livestock, and other animal populations. •Increase community awareness and participation in hazard mitigation projects and activities. Goal 4: Increase communities' capabilities to be prepared for, respond to, and recover from a disaster event. •Improve interagency (local, state, federal) emergency coordination, planning, training, and communication to ensure effective community preparedness, response and recovery. •Enhance collaboration and coordination of disaster-related plans, exercises, and training with local, state, and federal agencies, neighboring communities, private partners, and volunteers. •Enhance the use of shared resources/Develop a strong mutual aid support system. •Create and maintain a fully functional, interoperable radio and communication system with all regional public safety partners. Goal 5: Maintain FEMA Eligibility/Position the communities for grant funding. •Review hazard events and ongoing hazard mitigation projects annually. •Assess the need to pursue or adjust hazard mitigation projects after significant hazard events. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-145 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Goal 6: Reduce exposure to High Hazard Dams that pose an unacceptable risk to the public. •Improve alert and warning systems to provide residents downstream of a High Hazard Dam to receive timely warning to evacuation when threatened by potential or imminent dam failure. •Enhance overall community preparedness to respond and evacuate a potential or imminent dam failure. •Increase public awareness of the risk posed by High Hazard Dams and the potential for relocation of housing outside a possible inundation zone. •Prioritize High Hazard Dam Mitigation projects and programs. 3.4 STATUS OF PREVIOUS MITIGATION ACTIONS Table 39 summarizes the actions that were recommended in the previous version of the hazard mitigation plan and their implementation status at the time this update was prepared. Table 39: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions Action Number / Name Completed Ongoing Not Started Still Relevant Included in Updated Action Plan 2. Identify the locations and then subsequently equip, stock and train staff in order to establish emergency evacuation shelters used to temporarily house people during major emergencies. X X X 3. Update the San Rafael Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Handbook X 4. Outfit and equip the City’s new Emergency Operation’s Center (EOC) scheduled for operation in Calendar Year 2019 X X X 5. Plan, prepare, conduct community outreach and deploy emergency evacuation exercises in neighborhoods prone to wildfire or tidal flooding during extreme wet weather periods. X X 6. Bayside Acres Beach Sewer Relocation/Replacement X X X 7. Beach Drive (Fiberglass) Pump Station and Sewer Rehabilitation X X X 8. Recruit and ultimate appoint a new Emergency Management Coordinator (EMC) to fill vacant post.X 9. Evaluate and Implement signal timing for first responders X X X 10. Tree Safety Maintenance Program X X X 11. Purchase and installation of EMTRAC signal control equipment into 17 San Rafael Fire Vehicles and 25 intersections. X X X X l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-146 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 312: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions Source: City of San Rafael Table 39: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions Action Number / Name Completed Ongoing Not Started Still Relevant Included in Updated Action Plan 13. San Rafael Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Implementation X X X 19. Develop a climate adaptation plan, and implement resulting strategies X X X 22. Water Storage Facility Study X X X 23. Leaky Pipe Replacement Program X X X 24. Marin Municipal Water District exploration of desalination plants X X X 25. Evaluate the use of reclaimed water/increase purple pipes X X X 26. Evaluate and enhance conservation measures to reduce water consumption X X X 28. Earthquake Hazard Study 30. Structural Soft Story Identification and Mitigation Plan X X X 33. Adopt a Drain Program X X X 35. City Storm Drain System Analysis and Improvements X X X 36. City Flood Alert System X 39. 70-96 Bret Harte Sewer Easement Repair X X X 40. Landslide Identification and Management Program X X X 41. Fairhills Slide Repair X X X 43. Create a City of San Rafael specific Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP).X X X 44.Create new strategic fuel interruption zones in WUI areas and maintain and expand existing fuel interruption zones already in place. X X X 46. Create new point specific wildfire prevention programs specifically targeting areas where homeless encampments are known to exist. X X X 47. San Rafael Measure A Project Implementation X X X 48. East San Rafael Shore Project: Plan X X X 49. East San Rafael Shore Project: Permitting and Construction X X X "Still Relevant" indicates that the project or program was first proposed in the 2018 MJHMP and remains still relevant to the current 2023 MJHMP hazard vulnerabilities. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-147 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 3.5 HAZARD MITIGATION ACTIONS The 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP was revised to reflect progress in local mitigation efforts. Mitigation projects were selected for each hazard and for the City of San Rafael based off the hazard risk assessment. The projects are supported by the mitigation goals and objectives, and are ranked using the following criteria; approximate cost, timeframe of completion, whether the project requires City Council regulatory action, and an assumption as to whether or not the project would be subject to CEQA or NEPA requirements. Funding sources are identified for all projects. All projects consider new, future, and existing development. Project worksheets are used by the Planning Team and Steering Committee to describe criteria for each project. Based on the hazard profiles, threat assessment, capabilities assessment, community survey results, discussions among the City of San Rafael Hazard Mitigation Planning Team members, and existing best practices, a set of potential mitigation actions was developed and then evaluated based on the following criteria: •FEMA requires local governments to evaluate the monetary and non-monetary costs and benefits of potential mitigation actions. Although local governments are not required to assign specific dollar values to each action, they should identify the general size of costs and benefits. •The City of San Rafael Hazard Mitigation Planning Team may elect to include measures with a high cost or low benefits, but such measures should be clearly beneficial to the community and an appropriate use of local resources. In addition, FEMA directs local governments to consider the following questions as part of the financial analysis: •What is the frequency and severity of the hazard type to be addressed by the action, and how vulnerable is the community to this hazard? •What impacts of the hazard will the action reduce or avoid? •What benefits will the action provide to the community? The City of San Rafael Hazard Mitigation Planning Team also chose to review and revise the potential hazard mitigation actions with consideration for climate impact and social vulnerability. Projects and programs were assessed with consideration of these variables. Prioritization As part of the mitigation actions development and review, the City of San Rafael Hazard Mitigation Planning Team also prioritized the actions. The prioritization efforts looked at the risks and threats from each hazard; lifesaving, life safety, property protection and lastly environmental protection; financial costs and benefits; technical feasibility; consideration for climate impact, and social vulnerability, and community values. The City of San Rafael Hazard Mitigation Planning Team members were asked to identify their priority actions using the following criteria. Implementation priority ratings were assigned as follows: •High Priority - An action that meets multiple objectives, is linked to a high risk hazard, has benefits that exceed costs, and has a potential source of funding. Action can begin within the short term (1 to 5 years). l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-148 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE •Medium Priority - An action that meets multiple objectives, is linked to a high or medium risk hazard, has benefits that exceed costs, and is eligible for funding though no funding has yet been secured for it. Action can begin within the short term (1 to 5 years) once funding is secured. •Low Priority - An action that will mitigate the risk of a hazard, has benefits that do not exceed the costs or are difficult to quantify, has no secured source of funding, and is not eligible for any known grant funding. Action can be completed in the long term (1 to 10 years). Low-priority actions may be eligible for grant funding from programs that have not yet been identified. During the five-year update cycle, the Marin County Office of Emergency Management will hold quarterly update meetings with the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group and local stakeholders to discuss revisions to the plan and progress updates for the hazard mitigation actions. The City of San Rafael will actively participate in this Working Group. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management and all participating jurisdictions and special districts will continue to hold public meetings after the first quarter and third quarter update meetings annually and will continue to invite public participation in the update process via updated public surveys. Additionally, the City of San Rafael Deputy Director of Emergency Management will work with the various City departments we will oversee the hazard mitigation actions and track the progress of the actions to the City officials and Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group. The City of San Rafael maintains project worksheets with detailed descriptions of each project. A summary of each project is found in the table below. Table 40 lists the Current Hazard Mitigation Actions for the City of San Rafael. . l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-149 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 40: City of San Rafael Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/ Progress SR-1 Marin Emergency Radio Authority (MERA) Upgrades. MU-13 Protect Infrastructure and Critical Facilities All Hazards/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Marin County and the City of San Rafael OES Existing (2018) Cost TBD; State and/or Federal grants, existing budgets The city, as a participant, is also studying replacement for the system as it reaches the end of its service life. SR-2 Update and implement safety and resilience elements of the General Plan. MU-4 Adopt Development Regulations in Hazard Areas All Hazards/ 1, 2, 4, 5 City of San Rafael Planning Dept. Existing (2018) Cost: General Funds 1 – 3 years/ High An updated General Plan was adopted which includes significant public safety components. SR-3 Review and complete a study on the effectiveness of current California Building codes for seismic, flood, fire, and other disasters.MU-8 Adopt and Enforce Building Codes All Hazards/ 1, 2, 4, 5 City of San Rafael Planning Dept. Existing (2018) Cost: General Funds 3 - 5 years/ Medium The city continues to review and adopt current California Building codes. SR-4 Enhance and promote community and individual emergency preparedness. MU-15 Develop and Conduct a Household Disaster Preparedness Program. ET-2 Increase awareness of extreme temperature risk and safety. All Hazards/ 3, 4, 5 Marin County and the City of San Rafael OES New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, BRIC, Fire Safe Marin, Private Grants 1 - 2 years/ High Focus on signing residents up for Alert Marin and establish a personal evacuation kit and plan. SR-5 Identify the locations and then subsequently equip, stock, and train staff to establish emergency evacuation shelters used to temporarily house people during major emergencies. MU-13 Protect Infrastructure and Critical Facilities All Hazard/ 1, 2, 4 City of San Rafael OES Existing (2019) Cost TBD: HMGP, BRIC, CDAA, Fire Safe Marin, Private Grants 1 - 2 years/ High None SR-6 Evaluate and Implement signal timing for first responders including EMTRAC on 17 fire vehicles. MU-13 Protect Infrastructure and Critical Facilities All Hazard/ 1, 2, 4 City of San Rafael Fire Dept. Existing (2020) Cost TBD: HMGP, BRIC, CDAA, Fire Safe Marin, Private Grants 3-5 years/ medium This action is in its initial stage with planned expansion. Ongoing 1-2 years/ High l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-150 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 40: City of San Rafael Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/ Progress SR-7 Implementation of SRMC code for new construction and substantial renovation projects to implement 7a standards. Codes restricting wood shake roofs. WF-5 Require or Encourage Fire-Resistant Construction Techniques. Wildfire 1, 3, 4, 5 City of San Rafael Building Dept. Existing (2018) Cost: General Funds, MWPA 3-5 years/ medium None SR-8 Receive and review Vegetation Management Plans (VMP) for development in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) areas. WF-9 Implement a Fuels Management Program. WF-8 Conduct Maintenance to Reduce Risk. Wildfire 1, 3, 4, 5 City of San Rafael Fire Dept. New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, BRIC, Fire Safe Marin, Private Grants, MWPA 1 - 2 years/ High This reduces the chance of a wildland fire igniting the structure(s) and reciprocally, wildland ignition from a structure fire. SR-9 Removal and/or reduction of hazardous fuels located within COSR jurisdictional boundaries. WF-9 Implement a Fuels Management Program, ET-1 Reduce Urban Heat. Wildfire 1, 2, 4, 5 New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, BRIC, Private Grants, MWPA 1 - 2 years/ High Reduces the chance of a wildland fire igniting the structure(s) and reciprocally, wildland ignition from a structure fire. Supports environmental restoration. SR-10 Hillside neighborhoods adaptation projects to protect against wildfire risk including narrow-street parking restrictions, continuing vegetation management in highest-risk areas, and other projects listed in the CWPP. WF-3 Reduce Risk through Land Use Planning. WF-8 Conduct Maintenance to Reduce Risk. Wildfire/ 1, 2, 4, 5 New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, BRIC, Private Grants, MWPA 1 - 2 years/ High None SR-11 Consider the development of transitional zones where additional fuel management will be conducted. Wildfire 1, 2, 4, 5 City of San Rafael Fire New (2023) Cost TBD: MWPA, HMGP Grants 3-5 years/ medium Various projects City of San Rafael Fire Dept. City of San Rafael Fire Dept. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-151 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 40: City of San Rafael Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/ Progress WF-7 Create Defensible Space Around Structures and Infrastructure. WF-9 Implement a Fuels Management Program. SR-12 Continue efforts to partner with Neighborhood response groups and firewise communities to improve wildfire adaptation. WF-10 Participate in Firewise Program. Wildfire 1, 3, 4 Existing (2019) Cost TBD: MWPA, Firesafe Marin 3-5 years/ medium Continued efforts to expand the interest in fire- adapted communities through the local Firewise program. SR-13 Participate in Countywide evacuation route assessment and mapping study(s). WF-1 Map and Assess Vulnerability to wildfire. Wildfire 1, 2, 3, 5 Existing (2019) Cost TBD: MWPA, HMGP Grants 1 - 2 years/ High The study is set to be completed this year. SR-14 Conduct fuel reduction of hazardous vegetation along evacuation routes. WF-8 Conduct Maintenance to Reduce Risk. Wildfire 1, 2, 4 Existing (2019) Cost TBD: MWPA, HMGP Grants 1 - 2 years/ High Annual surveying and mitigation work. SR-15 Staff Defensible space program to educate the public and support code enforcement efforts to improve city- wide structure ignition potential. WF-7 Create defensible space around structures and infrastructure. Wildfire 1, 3, 4, 5 Existing (2019) Cost: MWPA 3-5 years/ medium The Defensible space program is an ongoing and year round program. SR-16 Develop and Implement a Fuels Management Program. WF-9 Implement a Fuels Management Program. Wildfire 1, 2, 4 Existing (2019) Cost TBD: MWPA, HMGP Grants 1 - 2 years/ High None SR-17 Conduct a city-wide survey of hazardous trees and vegetation. WF- 1 Map and Assess Vulnerability to Wildfire. Wildfire 1, 3, 5 Existing (2019) Cost TBD: MWPA, HMGP Grants 1 - 2 years/ High Data collection is conducted through the defensible space inspection program. SR-18 Develop tools, equipment, and programs to implement a mobile public education and outreach Wildfire 1,2,3,4,5 City of San Rafael Fire, Existing (2019) Cost TBD: MWPA, HMGP Grants 1 - 2 years/ High The City conducts public education withing San Rafael which is City of San Rafael Fire Dept. City of San Rafael Fire Dept. City of San Rafael Fire Dept. City of San Rafael Fire Dept. City of San Rafael Fire Dept. City of San Rafael Fire Dept. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-152 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 40: City of San Rafael Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/ Progress program for emergency preparedness, hazard education, and community mitigation input. WF-11 Increases Wildfire Risk Awareness. WF-12 Educate Property Owners about Wildfire Mitigation Techniques. Firesafe Marin supplemented by Firesafe Marin. SR-19 San Rafael adaptation projects to protect against flooding including maintaining, replacing, or new flood control pump stations, maintaining and dredging existing lagoons and canals, maintaining, and improving storm drainage throughout neighborhoods, and other projects listed in the assessment. F-1 Incorporate Flood Mitigation in Local Planning. F-9 Manage the Floodplain Beyond Minimum Requirements. F- 15 Elevate or Retrofit Structures and Utilities. Flooding, Sea Level Rise, Tsunami/ 1, 2, 4, 5 City of San Rafael Sustainability Dept., Marin County New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, FMA, CDAA 3-5 years/ medium City’s Climate Adaptation Plan SR-20 Updating or enhancing flood control pump stations, storm force mains, and gravity storm lines around town. This will also include maintaining and dredging existing flood control open channels, canals, and lagoons. F-14 Conduct Regular Maintenance for Drainage Systems and Flood Control Structures. F-17 Protect Infrastructure. Flooding, Sea Level Rise, Levee, Tsunami/ 1, 2, 4, 5 New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, FMA, CDAA 3-5 years/ medium None SR-21 San Rafael Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Implementation. SLR- 3 Protect buildings and infrastructure. F-19 Construct flood control Flooding, Sea Level Rise, Levee, Tsunami/ City of San Rafael Planning Existing (2019) Cost TBD: HMGP, FMA, CDAA 3-5 years/ medium This plan includes various storm drains, creek restoration, and water pump repair projects. City of San Rafael Sustainability Dept., Marin County l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-153 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 40: City of San Rafael Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/ Progress measures. F-13 Improve storm drain capacity. 1, 2, 4, 5 SR-22 Develop a “Homeowners Guide to Flood and Tsunami Hazards” to help property owners identify mitigation techniques, preparation practices, and funding opportunities to adapt to sea level rise. TSU-6 Increase Public Awareness of Tsunami Hazards. F-23 Educate property owners about Flood Mitigation Techniques. Flooding, Sea Level Rise, Levee, Tsunami/ 1, 2, 4, 5 City of San Rafael Planning and Sustainability Departments Existing (2019) Cost TBD: HMGP, FMA, CDAA 3-5 years/ medium None SR-23 Enhance Community facilities to support energy resiliency and socially vulnerable populations during extreme weather events. ET-3 Assist Vulnerable Population Severe Weather-Heat 1,2,4,5 City of San Rafael OES New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, BRIC, CDAA, Private Grants 1 - 2 years/ High This action includes heat, rain, poor air quality, and cold weather conditions. SR-24 Educate the public about severe weather safety, power outages, and powerline safety. SW-7 Increase Severe Weather Risk Awareness. Severe Weather-Heat 1,3,4 City of San Rafael OES New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, CDAA 1 - 2 years/ High Develop community outreach in preparation for severe weather to enhance public safety SR-25 Coordinate with local government and private organizations to prepare and implement staff shelters during predicted severe weather conditions. SW-6 Retrofit Public Buildings and Critical Facilities. Severe Weather-Heat 1,4 City of San Rafael Building Dept. New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, CDAA 1 - 2 years/ High Open warming and shelter locations for residents experiencing homelessness to improve health and life safety. SR-26 Fire and Building code amendments and adoption to reduce the damage to structures from earthquakes, landslides, and fire. fire sprinklers for new and substantially remodeled structures. EQ-1 Adopt and Enforce Building Codes. SU-3 Consider Subsidence in Building Design. Earthquake 1, 2, 4, 5 City of San Rafael Fire & Building Departments Existing (2021) Cost TBD: HMGP, CDAA 3-5 years/ medium Substantial remodels are indicated by more than 50% sheetrock removal during 4 years or conducting more than 50% of the structures assessed value in remodel cost. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-154 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 313: City of San Rafael Current Hazard Mitigation Actions Table 40: City of San Rafael Current Hazard Mitigation Actions No. Mitigation Action Hazards Mitigated/ Goals Met Jurisdiction/ Responsible Agency New, Existing, Completed, Removed Estimated Cost and Potential Funding Source Timeline/ Priority Comments/ Progress SR-27 Train homeowners to locate and shut off gas valves if they smell or hear gas leaking. Prepare citywide education. EQ-7 Increase Earthquake Risk Awareness. Earthquake 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 City of San Rafael OES New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, CDAA 1 - 2 years/ High This action may be implemented in preparation for training programs. SR-28 Remove non-native plants and trees from all County and City and Town facilities, and replace them with drought-tolerant, native plants. D-8 Enhance Landscaping and Design Measures Drought 1, 2, 4, 5 City of San Rafael Fire Dept. Existing (2019) Cost TBD: HMGP, CDAA 3-5 years/ medium None SR-29 Survey and explore the potential of enhancing reclaimed water systems. Drought 1, 2, 4, 5 New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, CDAA 3-5 years/ medium None SR-30 Landslide Identification and Management Program – LS-1 Map and assess vulnerability to landslides. Landslide 1, 2, 4, 5 City of San Rafael OES & Public Works New (2023) Cost TBD: HMGP, CDAA 3-5 years/ medium None City of San Rafael Sustainability l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN e 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-155 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE 3.6 PROGRESS IN LOCAL MITIGATION EFFORTS This plan has been created as a “living” document with input from the population and professionals within the City of San Rafael. Based on the planning meetings and the progress monitored by the steering committee members several mitigation actions were accomplished since the last planning cycle. Table 39 provides a brief description of the progress made in the local mitigation efforts and the plan for those mitigation actions that were not completed or are ongoing. The planning team for the City of San Rafael identified and prioritized the mitigation actions as detailed in Table 40, based on the risk assessment and in accordance with the process outline in Section 3, Mitigation Strategy, of the base plan. Background information and information on how each action will be implemented and administered, such as ideas for implementation, responsible office, potential funding, estimated cost, and timeline are also included. General processes and information on plan implementation and maintenance of this LHMP by all participating jurisdictions is included in Section 4.0: Plan Review, Evaluation, and Implementation. 3.7 PLAN INTEGRATION For hazard mitigation planning, “integration” means that hazard mitigation information is used in other relevant planning mechanisms, such as general planning, capital facilities planning, emergency management, hazard specific planning, and that relevant information from those sources is also used in hazard mitigation. This section identifies where such integration is already in place from the 2018 MJHMP, and where the 2023 MJHMP will be used for further integration. The planning team for the City of San Rafael will maintain this plan and will serve as a lead staff for grant project applications on City projects selected for application under the Hazard Mitigation Assistance grant programs. An important implementation mechanism that is highly effective and low-cost is incorporation of the hazard mitigation plan recommendations and their underlying principles into town plans and mechanisms. Where possible the City of San Rafael will use existing plans and/or programs to implement hazard mitigation actions. Mitigation is most successful when it is incorporated into the day-to-day functions and priorities of government and development. As described in this plan’s capability assessment, the City of San Rafael already implements policies and programs to reduce losses to life and property from hazards. This plan builds upon the momentum developed through previous and related planning efforts and mitigation programs and recommends implementing actions, where possible, through these other program mechanisms. These existing mechanisms include Integration opportunities for the 2023 Marin County OA MJHMP: City General Plan - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of hazards most likely to impact the City. These hazards are considered in the Safety Element, Housing Element and Open Space Element. City and District Emergency Operations Plans – Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of the City’s planned response to hazards most likely to impact the City. County, City and Town Ordinances - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of plans and policies outlined in the capability assessments in the jurisdictional annexes. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-156 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Flood/Storm Water Management/Master Plans - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of strategies to reduce flood risk and storm water management for the protection of life and property. Community Wildfire Protection Plan - Integrates hazard mitigation through the consideration of strategies to reduce fire hazard and the risk of catastrophic wildfires in the WUI, while promoting the protection and enhancement of the county’s economic assets and ecological resources. The successful implementation of this mitigation strategy will require review of existing plans and programs for coordination and multi-objective opportunities that promote a safe, sustainable community. A few examples of incorporation of the MJHMP into existing planning mechanisms include: 25. As recommended by Assembly Bill 2140, each community should adopt (by reference or incorporation) this MJHMP into the Safety Element of their General Plans. Evidence of adoption (by formal, certified resolution) shall be provided to CalOES and FEMA 26. Integration of flood actions identified in this mitigation strategy with the actions and implementation priorities established in existing Flood Management Programs 27. Using the risk assessment information to update the hazards section in the County, City and Town Emergency Operations Plans Efforts should continuously be made to monitor the progress of mitigation actions implemented through these other planning mechanisms and, where appropriate, their priority actions should be incorporated into updates of this hazard mitigation plan. 3.8 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS San Rafael is a desirable place to live, work, or own a business in part due to the variety of land uses that can be found in the city. It offers older neighborhoods with traditional city blocks and mixed uses, as well as mid- to late - 20th Century suburban areas where residential and commercial uses have been separated. Its neighborhoods are complemented by multiple business districts, ranging from industrial areas to office parks to neighborhood shopping centers. Its developed areas are complemented by a network of open spaces, connecting the city to nature and making it more interesting and scenic. Past land use decisions have maintained a balance of uses that give the city a “hometown” quality and make San Rafael what it is today. The San Rafael Land Use Element is closely aligned with other elements of the General Plan. The Mobility Element has been calibrated with the Land Use Element to ensure that transportation capacity is adequate to support new development. At the same time, the Land Use Element shifts development patterns to make walking, bicycling, and transit use a more viable way to get around. The Land Use Element similarly aims to reduce the hazards identified in the Safety and Resilience Element, while preserving the natural resources addressed in the Conservation and Climate Change Element. The Land Use Element guides future change to fit the desired character of San Rafael, preserve the city’s historic qualities and natural environment, serve community needs, sustain the local economy, and enhance the quality of life. Its goals and policies provide the direction needed to strengthen San Rafael’s sense of place and keep the city a place that feels like “home.” l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-157 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE The Land Use Element reflects the Guiding Principles of General Plan 2040. It strategically directs San Rafael’s growth to areas where it will strengthen the city, protect natural resources, reduce exposure to environmental hazards, support climate change initiatives, and conserve and strengthen existing neighborhoods. The land use goals and policies are underpinned by a basic belief that change is both inevitable and necessary and should be harnessed to achieve the vision of a thriving city. It is tremendously important to San Rafael residents that growth is well managed and harmonious with community needs. New development and other physical alterations must respect the character and scale of the city. Change and development should be accomplished in ways that enhance and blend with San Rafael’s existing physical and social qualities. Development should respect the physical fabric of the city, while improving its social fabric through new housing and economic opportunities that reach all residents. The Land Use Element responds to the chronic risks that come from living with natural disasters, including wildfires, earthquakes, and floods. This requires more than just being prepared for emergencies. The Land Use Map (see Figure 60) itself responds to hazard levels in different parts of the city, limiting development in high fire- hazard areas and on steep landslide-prone hillsides. Policies in the General Plan require elevated foundations in low-lying areas, and flood-proofing buildings where sea level rise is an issue. The Land Use Map includes a sea level rise overlay area, providing a reminder of where extra steps may be necessary to ensure the safety of life and property. As detailed in the "Climate Change and Future Development Considerations" section of each hazard profile, development in San Rafael has occurred and will continue to occur throughout the town in areas prone to all of its identified hazards. Increased growth in these areas may increase the vulnerability of people and structures to these hazards. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-158 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 60: City of San Rafael Land Use Map – Open Space Source: City of San Rafael General Plan 2040 (Aug. 2021) l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN \ ' Fairfax -_ ~ Plonnlng Ateo ::J City Limit San Ans m ::::J Downtown Pree ls• Pion Ar t o ,en Spaoe Categori es ■ City Open Spoc.o ■ County O~n Space ■ Jofnt C llyl County Open Sp.>ce S!Dte or Ca !Hornla Open Space Commu:nlty service Open Spa.ce o., SAtlllAfAEL Ger:te.ril l Pla n L 2040 Novato I J Larkspu PI I 8 ·--•••---••••••-••--••••••--•••••-••••• --I , , ' ...... , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ' , crmond 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-159 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE SECTION 4.0: PLAN REVIEW, EVALUATION, AND IMPLEMENTATION The strategies presented are deemed appropriate and effective by recommendation of the City of San Rafael. 4.1 PLAN ADOPTION Upon submission to the California Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) for review, and subsequent approval by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Marin County OA MJHMP will be presented to local government for formal adoption. As appropriate, the adopted plan and accompanying City of San Rafael Community Profile Annex of the Marin County OA MJHMP will then be incorporated into local general plans for integration into organizational policy. 4.2 PLAN MONITORING The process of hazard mitigation does not end with the completion, approval, and adoption of the Marin County OA MJHMP. During the five-year lifespan the Marin County and City of San Rafael plan, the County, cities, towns and special districts, along with community-based organizations will ensure that the mitigation goals and strategies identified are exercised and monitored under a collaborative and cooperative umbrella, and that the document itself is properly maintained. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management, as lead coordinating agency for hazard mitigation planning within the Marin County OA, leads the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group that meets quarterly to review and manage the plan, projects, and programs. The City of San Rafael is a participating member of the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group. The City of San Rafael Public Works Director will monitor and update the City of San Rafael Annex to the Marin County OA MJHMP. The review will identify changing community priorities, updated or new planning documents and the progress or status of the mitigation actions as detailed in the mitigation strategy. Additional questions to complete the review will be considered as follows: • Do the goals address current and expected conditions? • Are the goals and objectives consistent with changes in the local, state, and federal policy? • Status updates on all mitigation actions? • Have the hazards or risks changed? • Are current resources appropriate for implementing the MJHMP? • Have the outcomes occurred as expected? • Is the County and jurisdictions or districts participating in the plan implementation process as expected? The Working Group is a subgroup of the Marin Disaster and Citizens Corps Council. During the five-year update cycle, the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group will have quarterly update meetings with the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee and local stakeholders to discuss revisions to the plan and progress updates for the hazard mitigation actions. Further, Marin OEM will host an annual one-day mitigation summit to increase l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-160 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE engagement and enhance collaboration on the plan and projects. The summit will also have the goal to educate stakeholders on innovative approaches to mitigation, trends, and new plan requirements. Marin OEM, as the host, will seek subject matter experts, state and federal officials, and representatives from within the Marin OA to speak to mitigation and planning. The knowledge gathered and the coordination facilitated during the summit will be used to update the base plan and annexes. Marin OEM has the capacity to lead the Working Group and Multi-Jurisdictional Planning with one coordinator assigned with direct maintenance of the plan, a department analyst assigned to support the coordinator with project and grant tracking, and a community preparedness coordinator assigned with conducting regular public outreach on the plan and education on mitigation. Community feedback and integration will continue through outreach events and OEM website, where residents and visitors are invited to provide feedback through a survey, available in English or Spanish. Specific plan maintenance activities by the Marin County Office of Emergency Management and its participating jurisdictions/special districts may include: • Hold quarterly update meetings with the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee and local stakeholders to discuss revisions to the plan and progress updates for the hazard mitigation actions. • Annual Hazard Mitigation Summit • Holding public meetings after the first quarter and third quarter update meetings. • Maintaining the Marin County OEM Hazard Mitigation Website, which provides the public with the ability to access identified hazard impact maps, location address search capability, and a listing of hazard mitigation actions. • Monitoring of the Marin County and all participating jurisdiction mitigation project activities and dissemination of status reports. • Generation of reports relative to plan status, project management, and revision updates to executive leadership. Preparations for the plan’s future revision and updating. 4.3 PLAN EVALUATION Upon approval and adoption by the City of San Rafael, the prioritized mitigation strategies will be further developed for funding and implementation by the lead agencies. The plan describes the potential sources of hazard mitigation funding, and general procedures to obtain that funding. The mitigation strategies represented and adopted within this plan are recommendations only and must be approved and funded in order to be implemented as official mitigation solutions. Ultimately, it is the responsibility of jurisdictional and agency officials within the Marin County to undertake project implementation based upon identified mitigation strategies, funding availability, and local need when it arises. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management will meet with the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group, including the City of San Rafael, to evaluate the plan after each update meeting. 4.4 PLAN UPDATE The City of San Rafael Public Works Director will monitor and update the City of San Rafael Annex to the Marin County OA MJHMP. During the five-year update cycle, the City of San Rafael and the Marin County Office of Emergency Management will hold quarterly update l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-161 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE meetings with the Marin Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Working Group and local stakeholders to discuss revisions to the plan and progress updates for the hazard mitigation actions. The Marin County Office of Emergency Management and all participating jurisdictions and special districts will continue to hold public meetings after the first quarter and third quarter update meetings annually and will continue to invite public participation in the update process via updated public surveys. l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-162 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE FIGURES AND TABLES Figures Figure 1: Marin County OEM MJHMP Website.................................................................... 12-19 Figure 2: Marin County OEM MJHMP Public Town Hall Meeting ......................................... 12-20 Figure 3: Hazard Mitigation Plan Public Outreach Press Release ....................................... 12-21 Figure 4: Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey ............................................................................. 12-23 Figure 5: Map of City of San Rafael in Marin County ........................................................... 12-26 Figure 6: Map of the City of San Rafael............................................................................... 12-27 Figure 7: The City of San Rafael Precipitation and Monthly Temperatures .......................... 12-29 Figure 8: Races in San Rafael ............................................................................................ 12-30 Figure 9: City of San Rafael Land Use Map ........................................................................ 12-32 Figure 10: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1060.01 .................... 12-35 Figure 11: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1081.00..................... 12-36 Figure 12: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1082.01 .................... 12-37 Figure 13: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1082.02 .................... 12-38 Figure 14: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1090.01 .................... 12-39 Figure 15: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1092.02 .................... 12-40 Figure 16: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1101.00..................... 12-41 Figure 17: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1102.00..................... 12-42 Figure 18: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1110.01 ..................... 12-43 Figure 19: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1110.02 ..................... 12-44 Figure 20: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1121.00..................... 12-45 Figure 21: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1122.02..................... 12-46 Figure 22: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1122.03..................... 12-47 Figure 23: City of San Rafael Social Vulnerability Map Census Tract 1122.04..................... 12-48 Figure 24: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities and Infrastructure ....................................... 12-59 Figure 25: City of San Rafael Hazard Risk Assessment Ranking ........................................ 12-60 Figure 26: Hazard Risk Categorization ................................................................................ 12-60 Figure 27: NASA Global Temperature Change CO2 Gas .................................................... 12-64 Figure 28: NASA Global Temperature Change 1884 to 2022 .............................................. 12-64 Figure 29: NASA Global Temperature Change Sea Level ................................................... 12-65 Figure 30: Annual Mean Sea Level Trends .......................................................................... 12-68 Figure 31: Landslide Susceptibility Classes ........................................................................ 12-73 Figure 32: Mud Flow Areas ................................................................................................. 12-74 Figure 33: City of San Rafael Debris Flow Critical Facilities and Infrastructure.................... 12-76 Figure 34: Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale ........................................................................ 12-79 Figure 35: Mercalli Scale vs. Magnitude .............................................................................. 12-80 Figure 36: Soil Types .......................................................................................................... 12-80 Figure 37: Marin County OA Earthquake Impact and Fault Lines ........................................ 12-82 Figure 38: City of San Rafael Earthquake Critical Facilities and Infrastructure .................... 12-84 Figure 39: Diagram of an Atmospheric River Event ............................................................. 12-87 Figure 40: City of San Rafael Flooding Critical Facilities and Infrastructure ......................... 12-89 Figure 41: City of San Rafael Flooding – 10/21/2021 .......................................................... 12-95 Figure 42: Dissolution Sinkhole Formation .......................................................................... 12-97 Figure 43: Cover-Subsidence Sinkhole Formation .............................................................. 12-97 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-163 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Figure 44: Cover-Collapse Sinkhole Formation ................................................................... 12-98 Figure 45: Levee Failure Mechanisms ................................................................................ 12-99 Figure 46: City of San Rafael Levee Inundation Impact……………………………………….12-101 Figure 47: City of San Rafael Sea Level Rise Impact ........................................................ 12-105 Figure 48: Projections of Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area, 2000-2100 ....... 12-107 Figure 49: Heat Index ....................................................................................................... 12-108 Figure 50: Annual Average Temperatures in the San Francisco Bay Area, 2000-2100 ...... 12-109 Figure 51: Beaufort Wind Scale ......................................................................................... 12-110 Figure 52: Enhanced Fujita Scale ...................................................................................... 12-111 Figure 53: Waterspout Formation ....................................................................................... 12-112 Figure 54: City of San Rafael Tsunami Critical Facilities and Infrastructure ........................ 12-114 Figure 55: Federal, State and Local Responsibility Areas in the Marin County OA ............. 12-117 Figure 56: Fuel Model Map for the Marin County OA ........................................................ 12-121 Figure 57: 2018 San Rafael Wildfire in Boyd Memorial Park ............................................. 12-125 Figure 58: City of San Rafael Wildfire Critical Facilities and Infrastructure ........................ 12-126 Figure 59: Trends in the Annual Number of Large Wildfires in the United States ............... 12-127 Figure 60: City of San Rafael Land Use Map – Open Space ............................................. 12-158 List of Tables Table 1: City of San Rafael Local Hazard Mitigation Planning Team Members ...................... 12-8 Table 2: 2023 MJHMP Local Planning Team Members........................................................ 12-12 Table 3: City of San Rafael & Marin County OA MJHMP Planning Meetings ....................... 12-16 Table 4: City of San Rafael Estimated Jurisdictional Population .......................................... 12-29 Table 5: Population Change of The City of San Rafael ........................................................ 12-29 Table 6: Languages Spoken in San Rafael .......................................................................... 12-30 Table 7: Marin County OA Jurisdictional Housing Stock ...................................................... 12-31 Table 8: NRI Hazards and Marin County OA MJHMP Hazards ............................................ 12-33 Table 9: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1060.01 ....................... 12-35 Table 10: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1081.00 ..................... 12-36 Table 11: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1082.01 ..................... 12-37 Table 12: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1082.02 ..................... 12-38 Table 13: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1090.01 ..................... 12-39 Table 14: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1090.02 ..................... 12-40 Table 15: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1101.00 ..................... 12-41 Table 16: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1102.00 ..................... 12-42 Table 17: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1110.01 ..................... 12-43 Table 18: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1110.02 ..................... 12-44 Table 19: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1121.00 ..................... 12-45 Table 20: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1122.02 ..................... 12-46 Table 21: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1122.03 ..................... 12-47 Table 22: NRI Hazard Type Risk Index for San Rafael Census Tract 1122.04 ..................... 12-48 Table 23: Household Income for The City of San Rafael as of 2019 .................................... 12-51 Table 24 City of San Rafael Civilian Employed Population 16 years+ by Industry ............... 12-51 Table 25: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities ..................................................................... 12-56 Table 26: Historic Sites In The City of San Rafael ............................................................... 12-58 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-164 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE Table 27: Select Hazards Magnitude/ Severity Scale or Index ............................................. 12-61 Table 28: City of San Rafael Hazard Risk Assessment ........................................................ 12-70 Table 29: Hazard Risk Assessment ..................................................................................... 12-71 Table 30: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities in the Flood Zones ....................................... 12-90 Table 31: City of San Rafael Critical Facilities in the Flood Zones ....................................... 12-94 Table 32: City of San Rafael Future Growth Areas ............................................................ 12-129 Table 33: City of San Rafael Legal and Regulatory Capabilities ........................................ 12-132 Table 34: City of San Rafael General Plan ........................................................................ 12-135 Table 35: City of San Rafael Administrative and Technical Capabilities ............................. 12-137 Table 36: City of San Rafael Fiscal Capabilities ................................................................ 12-138 Table 37: City of San Rafael Community Outreach ........................................................... 12-139 Table 38: City of San Rafael NFIP Status .......................................................................... 12-142 Table 39: Status of Previous Hazard Mitigation Actions ..................................................... 12-146 Table 40: City of San Rafael Current Hazard Mitigation Actions ........................................ 12-154 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-165 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE ACRONYMS/ABBREVIATIONS Acronym Definition ABAG Association Bay Area of Governments ADU Accessory Dwelling Units AQI Air Quality Index ARP Address Resolution Protocol ASL American Sign Language ATSDR Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry BAAQMD Bay Area Air Quality Management District BCDC Bay Conservation and Development Commission BCEGS Building Code Effectiveness Grading Schedule BCPUD Bolinas Community Public Utility District BFE Base Flood Elevation BRIC Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities CA California CAC Community Assistance Contact CAL FIRE California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection Cal OES California Office of Emergency Services CAP Climate Action Plan CASPER Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response - California Department of Public Health CAV Community Assistance Visit CDAA California Disaster Assistance Act CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDI Certified Deaf Interpreter CEQA California Environmental Quality Act CERT Community Emergency Response Team CGS California Geological Survey CIP Capital Improvement Plan CIR Conservation Incentive Rate CITR Conservation Incentive Tier Rate CMFD Central Marin Fire District CMSA Central Marin Sanitation Agency CNRA California Natural Resource Agency l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-166 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE CO Carbon Monoxide COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 COYL Coyote Creek Left Bank Levee CPUC California Public Utilities Commission CRF Community Risk Factor CRI Community Resilience Index CRS Community Rating System CRT Community Response Team CSA County Service Area C-SMART Sea-level Marin Adaption Response Team CWPP Community Wildfire Protection Plan DDoS Distributed Denial of Service DMA Disaster Mitigation Act DNS Domain Name System DOF California Department of Finance DoS Denial-of-Service DPW Department of Public Works DR Disaster Relief DSOD Division of Safety of Dams - California Department of Water Resources DWR California Department of Water Resources EAL Expected Annual Loss EAS Emergency Alert System ECC Emergency Command Center EOC Emergency Operation Center EOP Emergency Operations Plan EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPC Emergency Preparedness Commission ESHA Environmentally Sensitive Habitat Areas FD Fire Department FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FHSV Fire Hazard Severity Zones FIRM Flood Insurance Rate Maps FMA Flood Mitigation Assistance FMP Flood Mitigation Plan l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-167 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE FOG Fats, Oils, & Grease FPA Floodplain Administrator FRA Federal Responsibility Areas FY Fiscal Year GGBHTD Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District GGNRA Golden Gate National Recreation Area GGNRA Golden Gate National Recreation Area GIS Geographic Information System Gov Government GPAC General Plan Advisory Committee H2S Hydrogen Sulfide HFHSZ High Fire Severity Zone HIRA Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome HLR Historic Loss Ratio HMGP Hazard Mitigation Grant Program IoT Internet of Things IP Intellectual Property IPAWS Integrated Public Alert and Warning System IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISEPA Identified Site Emergency Planning Application JPA Joint Powers Agreement LCP Local Coastal Program LGVSD Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District LHMP Local Hazard Mitigation Plan LOMA Letters of Map Amendment LOMR Letters of Map Revision LRA Local Responsibility Areas LRAD Long-Range Acoustic Device LSAC Levee Safety Action Classification Marin IJ Marin Independent Journal MCEP Marin Climate Energy Partnership MCFD Marin County Fire Department MCOSD Marin County Open Space District l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-168 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE MCPIO Marin County Public Information Officers MCSTOPP Marin County Stormwater Pollution Prevention Program MERA Marin Emergency Radio Authority MERS Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome MFHSZ Moderate Fire Severity Zone MG Million Gallons MGD Million Gallons Per Day MHOAC Medical/Health Operational Area Coordinator MHW Mean High Water MJHMP Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan MMI Modified Mercalli Intensity MMRC Marin Medical Reserve Corps MMWD Marin Municipal Water District MRZ Mineral Resource Zones MV2040 Mill Valley General Plan 2040 Mw Scale Moment Magnitude Scale MWPA Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCDC National Climatic Data Center NEPA National Environmental Policy Act NFDRS National Fire Danger Rating System NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NID National Inventory of Dams NIH National Institute for Health NMWD North Marin Water District NPDES National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System NPR Northwestern Pacific Railroad NR National Register of Historic Places NRI National Risk Index NWS National Weather Service O3 Ozone OA Operational Area OEM Office of Emergency Management OHP Office of Historic Preservation l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-169 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE OWTA On-Site Wastewater Treatment Systems PD Police Department PG&E Pacific Gas & Electric PM10 Particulate Matter Less Than 10 Microns In Aerodynamic Diameter PSPS Public Safety Power shutoffs PtH Pass the hash PUD Public Utility District PW Public Works RACES Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Service RAWS Remote Automated Weather Stations RCD Resource Conservation District RHNA Regional Housing Needs Assessment RTP Regional Transportation Plan SASM Sewerage Agency of Southern Marin SFBRA San Francisco Bay Restoration Authority SFHA Special Flood Hazard Area SFHA Special Flood Hazard Areas - FEMA SFHA Special Flood Hazard Area SHMP State Hazard Mitigation Plan SHSGP State Homeland Security Grant Program SMART Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit SMCSD Sausalito Marin City Sanitary District SMFD Southern Marin Fire District SOD Sudden Oak Death SOX Sulfur Oxides SQL Structured Query Language SR State Route SRA State Responsibility Areas SSMP Sewer System Management Plan SVI Social Vulnerability Index TAM Transportation Authority of Marin TBD To Be Determined TENS Telephone Emergency Notification System UCERF2 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN 2023 Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 12-170 CITY OF SAN RAFAEL COMMUNITY PROFILE UCERF3 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USGS United States Geological Survey UWMP Urban Water Management Plan VHFHSV Very High Fire Severity Zone VMP Vegetation Management Plans WC/ATWC West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center WHO World Health Organization WSCP Water Shortage Contingency Plan WUI Wildland Urban Interface WWTP Waste Water Treatment Plant XSS Cross-Site Scripting l ~'?UN. TY OF ~ARIN U.S. Department of Homeland Security FEMA Region 9 1111 Broadway, Suite 1200 Oakland, CA 94607-4052 www.fema.gov July 3, 2024 Steven Torrence Director of Emergency Management Marin County Office of Emergency Management 1600 Los Gamos Drive, Suite #301 San Rafael, CA 94903 Dear Steven Torrence: The Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 has been amended to include the following jurisdictions as an official planning participants: • City of Belvedere • Town of Fairfax • City of Larkspur • City of Mill Valley • City of Novato • Town of Ross • Town of San Anselmo • City of San Rafael • Town of Tiburon • Bolinas Community Public Utility District • Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District • North Marin Water District • Southern Marin Fire Protection District These jurisdictions must submit an adoption resolution to FEMA in order to be considered fully approved. FEMA’s approval of the Marin County Operational Area Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 remains for a period of five years from the original approval date of January 31, 2024 for all approved participants. An updated list of the status of current participating jurisdictions is enclosed with this letter. Prior to January 31, 2029, Marin County and all participating jurisdictions are required to review and revise the plan to reflect changes in development, progress in local mitigation efforts, and changes in priorities, and resubmit it for approval in order to continue to be eligible for mitigation project grant funding. FEMA Marin County Hazard Mitigation Plan Amendment Notice July 3, 2024 Page 2 of 3 The continued approval of this plan ensures Marin County and all participating jurisdictions’ continued eligibility for project grants under FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Assistance programs, including the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities Program, and Flood Mitigation Assistance Program. All requests for funding, however, will be evaluated individually according to the specific eligibility, and other requirements of the particular program under which applications are submitted. If you have any questions regarding the planning or review processes, please contact the FEMA Region 9 Hazard Mitigation Planning Team at fema-r9-mitigation-planning@fema.dhs.gov. Sincerely, Alison Kearns Planning and Implementation Branch Chief Mitigation Division FEMA Region 9 Enclosure (1) Marin County Plan Review Tool Amended July 3, 2024 Status of Participating Jurisdictions, dated July 3, 2024 cc: Robyn Fennig, State Hazard Mitigation Officer, California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services Victoria LaMar-Haas, Hazard Mitigation Planning Chief, California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services Marin County Hazard Mitigation Plan Amendment Notice July 3, 2024 Page 3 of 3 Status of Participating Jurisdictions as of July 3, 2024 Jurisdictions – Adopted and Approved # Jurisdiction Adoption Receipt Date 1 Marin County March 22, 2024 2 Town of Corte Madera January 31, 2024 3 City of Sausalito April 22, 2024 Jurisdictions – Approvable Pending Adoption # Jurisdiction 1 City of Belvedere 2 Town of Fairfax 3 City of Larkspur 4 City of Mill Valley 5 City of Novato 6 Town of Ross 7 Town of San Anselmo 8 City of San Rafael 9 Town of Tiburon 10 Bolinas Community Public Utility District 11 Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District 12 North Marin Water District 13 Southern Marin Fire Protection District