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Home My WebLink AboutCM Public Opinion Polling Survey Results for Potential Local Sales Tax Ballot Measure PPTPage 1 June 2020 City of San Rafael: 2020 Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey June 2020 Page 2 June 2020 Overview and Research Objectives The City of San Rafael commissioned Godbe Research to conduct a survey of local voters with the following research objectives: Assess opinion on State and local governments’ and districts’ efforts to address the coronavirus crisis, and the future direction of the economy; Gauge satisfaction with the City’s provision of services and management of taxpayer funds; Assess potential voter support for a sales tax measure to preserve essential city services with funding that cannot be taken by Sacramento; Prioritize projects and programs to be funded with the proceeds; Test the influence of informational and critical statements on potential voter support; Identify the duration at which voters will support the measure; and Identify any differences in voter support due to demographic and/or voter behavioral characteristics. Page 3 June 2020 Methodology Overview Data Collection Landline (40), text to online (572), and email to online (160) interviewing Universe 27,302 likely November 2020 voters in the City of San Rafael Fielding Dates May 11 through May 17, 2020 Interview Length 21 minutes Sample Size 772 Margin of Error ±3.48% The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely voters in the City of San Rafael in terms of their gender, age, and political party type. Page 4 June 2020 Key Findings Page 5 June 2020 Opinion on Job State/Local Governments & Districts are Doing to Address the COVID Crisis Likely November 2020 Voters Very favorable 39.2% Somewhat favorable 37.3% Somewhat unfavorable 10.2% Very unfavorable 5.9% DK/NA 7.5% Nov ‘20 Total Favorable 76.4% Total Unfavorable 16.1% Ratio Fav to Unfav 4.8 Page 6 June 2020 Opinion on Future Direction of the Economy Likely November 2020 Voters Better 30.1% About the same 20.6% Worse 39.1% DK/NA 10.2% Page 7 June 2020 Satisfaction With City’s Provision of Services Likely November 2020 Voters Very satisfied 32.2% Somewhat satisfied 41.1% Somewhat dissatisfied 11.1% Very dissatisfied 4.2% DK/NA 11.5% Nov ‘20 Total Satisfied 73.2% Total Dissatisfied 15.3% Ratio Sat to Dissat 4.8 Page 8 June 2020 Satisfaction With City’s Management of Taxpayer Funds Likely November 2020 Voters Very satisfied 12.3% Somewhat satisfied 34.3% Somewhat dissatisfied 11.8% Very dissatisfied 10.0% Mixed opinions 13.7% No opinion 7.6% DK/NA 10.4% Nov ’20 Feb 2019 Total Satisfied 46.6%40.3% Total Dissatisfied 21.8%23.8% Ratio Sat to Dissat 2.1 1.7 Page 9 June 2020 Uninformed Support for Sales Tax Measure Likely November 2020 Voters To preserve essential city services with funding that cannot be taken by Sacramento, including: •maintaining rapid emergency police and fire response times; •maintaining adequate numbers of on- duty firefighters, paramedics and police; •attracting, training, and retaining quality police, fire and city employees; •maintaining city streets and parks; and •supporting other city services; shall the City of San Rafael measure increasing the local sales tax rate by one-quarter percent, for 9 years, providing $4 million dollars per year, be adopted? Probably No 16.5% DK/NA 7.8% Definitely No 19.7% Definitely Yes 19.5% Probably Yes 36.5% Total Support 56.0% Page 10 June 2020 Features of the Measures I Likely November 2020 Voters Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2. Somewhat More Likely Somewhat Less LikelyMuch Less Likely -2 -1 0 1 2 T. Maintain after-school and summer programs for youth and teens I. Maintain local services to help address homelessness C. Maintain gang prevention and crime investigation services D. Maintain neighborhood police patrols F. Maintain senior services and programs B. Maintain police officers G. Maintain city parks and playgrounds E. Enhance city street and pothole repair N. Provide disaster and health emergency preparedness and rapid response programs A. Maintain 911 emergency response times 0.58 0.61 0.68 0.68 0.70 0.70 0.83 0.86 0.91 0.95 Much More Likely Tier 2Tier 167.4% 56.8% Sample A Sample B 67.1% 59.9% Page 11 June 2020 Features of the Measures II Likely November 2020 Voters Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2. Somewhat More Likely Somewhat Less LikelyMuch Less Likely -2 -1 0 1 2 P. Replace the existing downtown library with a new 21st century library R. Support other city services S. Provide a new combined 21st century library and community center at Albert Park O. Maintain the City's financial reserves H. Ensure sidewalks are accessible for persons with disabilities M. Provide the homeless with housing services L. Provide affordable housing programs J. Maintain crime prevention programs, such as Neighborhood Watch K. Maintain youth sports and recreation programs Q. Maintain youth and teen programs 0.00 0.09 0.11 0.33 0.45 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.52 0.55 Much More Likely Tier 4Tier 2 cont’d55.2% 36.4% Sample A Sample B Tier 337.6% 42.6% 52.1% 51.2% Page 12 June 2020 Informational Statements I Likely November 2020 Voters Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 D. The measure will maintain rapid emergency police and fire response times B. The measure will continue the appointed Citizen Oversight Committee to assure the money raised is… L. Everyone will pay their fair share of this measure, including local businesses, residents and visitors who… P. The measure will help the City provide emergency health services needed to respond to the Coronavirus… H. Since 1990, the State has taken millions of dollars from San Rafael to deal with its own budget. This measure… G. Visitors and shoppers from outside of San Rafael will pay their fair share for local city services, so… J. None of the money raised by the measure would be used for City administrator salaries A. Every penny from this measure must stay in San Rafael. No funds can be taken away by Sacramento 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.13 1.20 1.34 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely Tier 276.8% 67.7% Sample A Sample B 70.3% 68.6%Tier 1 Page 13 June 2020 Informational Statements II Likely November 2020 Voters Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 Q. The Coronavirus crisis has cost the city millions of dollars and this measure will help the city reduce layoffs… U. Without this measure, the City will be forced to cut services including street and pothole repair and public… S. This measure will maintain after-school programs, anti- gang activities, and recreation programs that keep… F. The measure will help maintain city streets and parks K. Park and recreation usage has been increasing each year. This measure will keep our parks clean and safe,… M. Maintaining adequate police, fire, and emergency medical services are essential to protect our local… R. The measure will help maintain streets and repair potholes on more than 331 miles of streets in the City of… O. The measure will help San Rafael maintain essential services and facilities following the Coronavirus crisis… 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.08 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely Tier 2 cont’d69.3% 63.3% Sample A Sample B Page 14 June 2020 Informational Statements III Likely November 2020 Voters Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 V. The measure will maintain services for thousands of youth and teens every year W. The measure will fund disaster preparation to address flooding from climate change and sea-level rise E. The measure will attract, train, and retain quality police, fire and city employees C. The City has been very fiscally responsible, but cost increases threaten our city's long-term financial viability. This measure will ensure the funds are there to prevent… I. The City has taken steps to tighten its belt including responsible pension reform efforts N. The Coronavirus and stock market gyrations are costing San Rafael millions of dollars. We need this measure to make sure that the City can maintain vital… T. The measure will fund disaster preparation to address the impacts of earthquakes 0.84 0.91 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.97 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely Tier 2 cont’d63.6% 60.5% Sample A Sample B Tier 359.2% 53.1% Page 15 June 2020 Interim Support for Sales Tax Measure Likely November 2020 Voters 0%20%40%60%80%100% Initial Test Interim Test 19.5% 25.0% 36.5% 38.5% 16.5% 13.2% 19.7% 14.0% 7.8% 9.2% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA 63.5% To preserve essential city services with funding that cannot be taken by Sacramento, including: •maintaining rapid emergency police and fire response times; •maintaining adequate numbers of on-duty firefighters, paramedics and police; •attracting, training, and retaining quality police, fire and city employees; •maintaining city streets and parks; and •supporting other city services; shall the City of San Rafael measure increasing the local sales tax rate by one-quarter percent, for 9 years, providing $4 million dollars per year, be adopted? 56.0% Page 16 June 2020 Hypothetical Negatives Likely November 2020 Voters Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 F. Given the Coronavirus, oil price wars among major producer nations and stock market gyrations, there is a… H. If our tax dollars weren't going to high salaries, benefits, and pensions for public employees, we would… C. A sales tax is a regressive tax that hurts low income residents and seniors on fixed incomes the most D. The County just increased property taxes by $19 million dollars a year for fire prevention. Now San Rafael wants… A. If the measure passes, San Rafael will have the highest sales tax in Marin County, driving shoppers to other… E. A measure to change Proposition 13 that will eliminate longstanding property tax protections will be on the… G. The tax will be used to support a bloated and costly pension program for City employees B. There are no rules that direct the spending of sales tax dollars, and no guarantee that the funds will be spent as… 0.62 0.78 0.81 0.85 0.91 0.91 1.05 1.08 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely Tier 160.0% 35.4%Tier 2Sample A Sample B T-352.9% 47.8% 44.9% Page 17 June 2020 Informed Support for Sales Tax Measure Likely November 2020 Voters 0%20%40%60%80%100% Initial Test Final Test 19.5% 17.9% 36.5% 35.9% 16.5% 17.3% 19.7% 16.9% 7.8% 11.9% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA 53.9% To preserve essential city services with funding that cannot be taken by Sacramento, including: •maintaining rapid emergency police and fire response times; •maintaining adequate numbers of on-duty firefighters, paramedics and police; •attracting, training, and retaining quality police, fire and city employees; •maintaining city streets and parks; and •supporting other city services; shall the City of San Rafael measure increasing the local sales tax rate by one-quarter percent, for 9 years, providing $4 million dollars per year, be adopted? 56.0% Page 18 June 2020 Support for Alternative 6 Year Duration Likely November 2020 Voters Instead of increasing the local sales tax to maintain rapid emergency police and fire response times; maintain adequate numbers of on- duty firefighters, paramedics and police; attract, training, and retaining quality police, fire and city employees; and maintaining city streets and parks for 9 years, another alternative would be to increase the tax for just 6 years. Probably No 15.4% DK/NA 15.5% Definitely No 15.4% Definitely Yes 21.5% Probably Yes 32.2% Total Support 53.7% Page 19 June 2020 www.godberesearch.com California and Corporate Offices 1575 Old Bayshore Highway, Suite 102 Burlingame, CA 94010 Nevada Office 59 Damonte Ranch Parkway, Suite B309 Reno, NV 89521 Pacific Northwest Office 601 108th Avenue NE, Suite 1900 Bellevue, WA 98004