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Home My WebLink AboutCD San Rafael 2023-2031 Housing Element PPTSan Rafael 2023-2031 Housing Element Update Progress Report to City Council April 4, 2022 Housing Element Overview ➢Required element of every General Plan ➢Includes policies/programs underpinned by technical analysis and data (formatted as two documents) ➢Contents established by State law—many prescriptive statutory requirements ➢Covers an 8-year planning period ➢Subject to certification by State HCD ➢Failure to comply can lead to loss of eligibility for funds and legal risk Sixth Cycle: Jan. 2023-Jan. 2031 Fifth Cycle: Jan. 2015-Jan. 2023 Contents of the Housing Element Needs Assessment •Demographics •Employment and Income •Housing Market Trends •Special Needs Previous Accomplishments •Progress toward implementing the prior Housing Element Constraints •Government •Market •Environmental •Infrastructure •Community Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing •Analysis •Site Distribution •Meaningful Actions Resources •Housing Sites (by income category) •Financial Housing Goals, Objectives, Policies, and Action Program Evaluation of Current Housing Element •Between 2010 and 2020, San Rafael gained 3,500 people, reaching 61,271. This represented 36% of Marin County’s population growth during this time period. •Most of the population growth was due to lower vacancy rates and larger households. The City added about 400 housing units during this time period. •From 2010 to 2020: o # of school age children increased by 1,900 o # over 65 increased by 2,200 o Number of young adults (25-44) dropped by 1,800+ •Half the city’s children are now bilingual o White population declined from 70.6% to 54.6% o Multi-racial and “Other” grew from 19.9% to 33.2% o Hispanic population grew from 30% to 34% Housing Needs Assessment: Population Highlights Housing Needs Assessment: Household Highlights •50% of the city’s households are homeowners and 50% are renters. The percentage of renters was 46% in 2000 and 48% in 2010. •14% of all owners and 29% of all renters in San Rafael spend more than half of their incomes on housing. Among Latino households, 39% spend more than half of their incomes on housing. •One in three San Rafael households is a single person living alone •29% of the City’s households have children under 18 living at home •The percentage of households defined as “overcrowded” increased from 6.1% to 10.9% between 2010 and 2020. All of the increase was associated with rental units. Housing Needs Assessment: Local Economy Highlights •35% of all jobs in Marin County are located in San Rafael (pre-COVID data) •Only 27% of these jobs were filled by San Rafael residents. 30% commuted in from elsewhere in Marin. 43% commuted in from other counties. •Many jobs in San Rafael do not provide enough income to rent an apartment in the city. A household earning $63,000/yr would need to spend half of their income on rent to afford the median priced apartment in the city. •47% of San Rafael’s households are “lower income,” as defined for Marin County. This includes more than 4,000 households earning less than 30% of the County median income (extremely low income). Housing Needs Assessment: Special Needs Highlights •Older adults are the fastest growing age cohort o Half of the city’s older adult households are low or very low income o 11% of the city’s owner-occupied homes are persons over 75 living alone •8.4% of the city’s residents have one or more disabilities •San Rafael is home to more than 500 residents with developmental disabilities •12.6% of the city’s renter households have five or more persons •Between 2015 and 2019, the number of unhoused San Rafael residents counted during a “point in time” survey dropped from 349 to 255. An updated survey took place in February. Housing Needs Assessment: Housing Stock Highlights •Single family homes (including townhomes) represent 56% of the city’s housing stock •60% of the city’s housing stock is more than 50 years old. This includes 43% built in the 1950s and 60s. •In 2020, 5.7% of all housing units in the city were vacant •54% of the city’s housing units have two bedrooms or fewer The median value of a home in San Rafael increased 123% between December 2011 and December 2021, from $615,000 to $1,370,000 Median rents increased by 47% between 2010 and 2019 and have increased another 6% since 2019 Housing Opportunity Site Analysis City has a Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) of 3,220 units Units Income thresholds for family of four Very Low 857 Less than $91,350 Low 492 $91,350 -$146,350 Moderate 521 $146,350 -$179,500 Above Moderate 1,350 More than $179,500 San Rafael must demonstrate it has adequate capacity for these units to be built by 2031 New Rules for Housing Sites •City must provide a “buffer” (i.e., extra sites) in case some of the sites become unavailable during the planning period •City must demonstrate that non-vacant sites are viable •City must demonstrate that small sites (less than ½ acre) and large sites (more than 10 acres) are viable •City must streamline approvals for projects with 20% or more affordable units on “carry over” sites •City must identify which sites are suitable for low and very low income Tier 1: Committed Projects Project Low/Very Low Mod/Above Mod TOTAL 350 Merrydale 2 43 45 703 3rd (Seagate)9 129 138 999 3rd (Vivalon)67 67 3301 Kerner 40 40 190 Mill 32 32 Loch Lomond 30 30 Northgate Walk 14 122 136 Los Gamos Apts 23 169 192 88 Vivian 7 63 70 TOTAL 194 556 750 % of RHNA 14%30%23% Tier 2: Accessory Dwelling Units Change in state laws effective 1/1/2017 25/ year from 2023 to 2031 Which income groups are served by ADUs? •ABAG conducted a survey of 15,000 ADUs in the Bay Area and published a survey of rents in Sept 2021 •Survey data was intended to help cities assign ADUs to the four RHNA income categories ABAG’s Affordability Recommendations for ADUs for Jurisdictions with Fair Housing Concerns : Income Group Percentage Applied to 200 units Very Low 5%10 units Low 30%60 units Moderate 50%100 units Above Moderate 15%30 units Source: ABAG, 2021 Tier 3: 2015 Housing Sites CENTRAL SAN RAFAEL NORTH SAN RAFAEL EAST SAN RAFAEL 2015 Housing Element identified sites for 2,415 units (140% over the RHNA) Looking back at our 2015 sites 45 sites were identified •Four sites were developed with housing •Three sites have approved or proposed projects •One site is now slated to become a hotel The flip side… •Five of the nine projects in the development “pipeline” were not identified as Opportunity Sites in 2015 37 are still vacant or underutilized Looking back at our 2015 sites •Should any sites be eliminated? •Older shopping centers? •Office buildings/ complexes? •What steps can the City take to make redevelopment of these sites more viable? •How can we better “predict” which sites are most likely to redevelop? Tier 4: Downtown Precise Plan Opportunity Sites •Downtown precise Plan inventory •2,200 units of potential •No density or FAR limits •Most of the “opportunity sites” are in active use •Some sites require assembly •Displacement and affordability concerns Tier 5: Other Commercial/Residential Sites •Projects in pre-application stage/ sites with landowner interest (incl. Northgate) •Vacant residential and commercial sites not already counted •Underutilized residential sites •Vacant/ blighted buildings •Zoned for apartments but developed with single family home •Adjacent sites under common ownership •Low improvement value/high land value •“Underutilized” commercial sites •Vacant/ blighted buildings •Low improvement value/high land value •Low floor area ratio (sites with few buildings) •Adjacent sites under common ownership •Sites with for sale/ for lease signs Tier 6: Public and institutional land •City owned properties (including parking lots) •County of Marin properties •School district properties •State-owned properties •SMART •Dominican University •Utilities •Tax-exempt organizations 21 Up Next: Housing Constraints Governmental Constraints •General Plan •Zoning •Constraints for particular housing types •Site improvement requirements •Processing delays •Unique local building code requirements •Fees and developer exactions •Local ordinances that impact development Non-Governmental Constraints •Availability of financing (including tax credits) •Price of land •Cost of construction •Infrastructure •Requests to develop housing below allowable densities •Community opposition 22 Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) •How can we overcome past patterns of inequity and segregation? •How can we reduce housing barriers for lower income and special needs households? •How can we improve awareness and enforcement of fair housing laws? •Are housing sites/ opportunities equitably distributed around the city? •How can we conduct meaningful engagement and outreach that reaches groups historically excluded? Schedule Aug-Dec 2021 Jan-Jun 2022 July-Oct 2022 Nov 22-Jan 23 •Evaluation of prior Element •Data collection and analysis •Engagement strategy and Working Group Formation •Meetings with stakeholders •Confirm site inventory and capacity •Constraints analysis •Initiate CEQA •Continued outreach and engagement •Working Group meetings •Develop policies and programs •Circulate working draft to PC and CC for comments/ hearings •Submit draft to HCD for “technical review” •Revise draft based on HCD and public comment •Prepare CEQA document •Planning Commission and City Council hearings and adoption •Formal submittal to HCD Housing Element Working Group Meetings to Date •December: Introduction/Orientation •January: Evaluation of 2015 Element •February: Needs Assessment •March: Sites Analysis Upcoming Meetings •April: Housing Constraints •May: Fair Housing •June: Policy and Program Review Ways to participate •Project website: www.sanrafaelhousing.org •Community Workshops (May 2022) •Housing Element Working Group •Housing Survey: www.sanrafaelhousing.org •Outreach to Community/Civic Groups •Youth engagement •Stakeholder engagement/ small groups •Council and Commission meetings •Focused outreach to non-English speaking residents Outreach, Education, and Engagement Email us: housing@cityofsanrafael.org A Cautionary Note from Southern California (Elements were due 10/15/21) San Rafael 2023-2031 Housing Element Update Progress Report to City Council April 4, 2022 THANK YOU!