HomeMy WebLinkAboutED Economic Development Strategic Plan____________________________________________________________________________________
FOR CITY CLERK ONLY
Council Meeting: May 15, 2023
Disposition: Resolution 15216
Agenda Item No: 6.b
Meeting Date: May 15, 2023
SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT
Department: Economic Development
Prepared by: Micah Hinkle,
Economic Development Director
Victoria Lim,
Senior Management Analyst
City Manager Approval: ______________
TOPIC: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
SUBJECT: RESOLUTION ADOPTING THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
RECOMMENDATION:
Adopt resolution adopting the Economic Development Strategic Plan.
BACKGROUND:
As part of the City Council’s 2021-2022 Goals and Objectives, economic recovery is one of four policy
focus areas. In order to build San Rafael’s economy to be stronger and more resilient, the creation of an
Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP) was identified as a key project. With support from the San
Rafael Chamber of Commerce and business and community leaders, the City partnered to host a series
of Going the Extra Mile (GEM) industry focus groups to gain better understanding of the current
challenges businesses were facing. In addition, Mayor Kate Colin conducted “walkabouts” throughout
San Rafael’s various commercial districts to connect with business owners and provide support and
updates on the City’s ongoing recovery efforts.
Through the industry sector outreach and input from the City Council Economic Development
Subcommittee, the City established the following strategic elements and EDSP focus areas:
Leverage the prior work completed by the City’s General Plan 2040
Provide meaningful data-driven analysis
Create actionable multi-step plans with clear metrics for performance
Integrate technology, partnerships, and innovative thinking into the EDSP
Leverage external partnerships, resources, and funding to achieve goals
Support business expansion, attraction, and retention
Develop a workforce development strategy
Improve public safety
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Invest in beautification
With an economic development scope established, the City engaged Kosmont Companies, an economic
development consulting firm, to prepare an EDSP. Throughout the ten-month project timeline, Kosmont
Companies followed a comprehensive scope of work that included the following:
Led kickoff and group meetings to gather stakeholder input
Assessed demographic and economic conditions
Conducted market assessment and review of opportunity sites
Solicited feedback through community surveys to businesses and the general public
Reviewed zoning requirements and policies
Conducted feasibility analyses of key economic development tools for the implementation
of strategies
Prepared draft EDSP to recommend near-term and long-term actions and establish
metrics for City to measure success
The project kicked off in the Fall of 2022 and included various community engagements with key business
and community stakeholders. In addition, a community-wide survey was completed in January 2023 (see
Attachment 3). The project builds upon the community engagement and market data from the Marin
County Economic Vitality Strategic Plan that was completed in August 2022.
On February 9, 2023, Kosmont Companies presented the Demographic, Market and Economic Overview
(Attachment 4) to the City of San Rafael Council Economic Development Subcommittee, which includes
participation from the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce, the Downtown Business Improvement District,
the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, and others. The overview provided a snapshot of the current
economic conditions, real estate development data, business sectors, trends, and revenue generation. It
also included specific data on San Rafael’s geographic business areas: 1) North San Rafael, 2) San
Pedro Peninsula, 3) Central San Rafael, 4) Downtown, and 5) Canal.
On April 13, 2023, Kosmont Companies presented EDSP draft policy and program recommendations to
the Council Economic Development Subcommittee. Following the subcommittee meeting, the plan has
been refined over the past month incorporating feedback (Attachment 2). The recommendations were
built upon the City’s economic strengths and opportunities, community survey results, interviews with
community stakeholders, and successful economic development models implemented in other California
communities. The EDSP is designed to provide a playbook for the City’s economic development efforts
over the next three to five years. The recommendations cover several key areas of opportunity including
the potential for increased tourism, improvements in the downtown area, growth of the industrial sector,
and financing models to meet needed infrastructure and program costs.
ANALYSIS:
The proposed EDSP would be the first economic development strategic plan since the dissolution of the
redevelopment agency in 2012 and the first EDSP evaluating the entire City. With the COVID-19
pandemic’s impacts on the business community, a heightened focus was established on economic
vitality, and the Council identified strategic efforts to strengthen the San Rafael economy and create
greater resiliency for future economic downturns.
The City of San Rafael is the key business engine for Marin County with the largest commercial square
footage market share compared to the other Marin communities.
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Marin County Commercial Real Estate Inventory Q4 2022 (CoStar)
Marin County San Rafael Percentage
Share
Retail 13,407,000 SF 5,034,400 SF 38%
Office 12,737,600 SF 5,505,700 SF 43%
Industrial 5,336,500 SF 3,314,700 SF 62%
Flex 2,967,800 SF 958,600 SF 32%
Over the past 20 years, there has been limited growth in both commercial and residential development
within San Rafael. As San Rafael and the greater Bay Area economy recover from the global pandemic,
businesses are adjusting to the new normalized work conditions, which include remote work and modified
retail shopping patterns. The commercial real estate owners and business community will also need to
adjust to market demand for space and incorporate experiential retail that is focused on products and
experiences that cannot be purchased online.
The EDSP recommends that policy makers and City activities target seven areas:
1. Support Business / Development
2. Downtown Reimagination
3. Analyze Implementation of EIFD
4. Strengthen Local Partnerships
5. Attract High-Tech Industrial
6. Private Dev/Biz Opportunities
7. Workforce Development
The seven targeted areas would build upon the San Rafael General Plan 2040 Economic Vitality Policies:
EV1.1 Quality of Life; EV1.2- Strategic Planning; EV1.3-Relationship Building; EV1.4-Business Retention
and Support; EV1.5-Business Attraction; EV1.6- Monitoring; and EV1.7 – Marketing and Branding. The
EDSP program recommendations would 1) provide economic data and information; 2) create a strategic
plan; 3) strengthen strategic partnerships; 4) create a retention and support program; 5) diversify the
economy; 6) monitor economic development program outcomes; and 7) support marketing and branding
programs.
The EDSP has 32 identified targeted action items over a 5-year planning horizon and are contingent on
resources for implementation. An estimated cost/workload dashboard is included as Attachment 5.
Staff recommend prioritizing the following items for upfront implementation given current and
anticipated budget and staffing resources:
Action Item 1.1 Business Expansion, Attraction, Retention (BEAR) Program.
The BEAR program is an economic development program focused on enhancing customer service
to both businesses and developers. Its focus is to provide process navigation services through
City permitting and be a single point of contact for business and/or development questions.
Services also include site selection, business referral resources, and financial and technical
assistant programs. Staff currently provide services and are building capacity through the
purchase of real estate data services and service contracts with strategic partners (San Rafael
Chamber of Commerce and Marin SBDC). In addition, we would create marketing and branding
material for program overview and how to access the program. All materials would be made
available in Spanish and could be further translated into other languages depending on need.
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Action Item 1.3 Business Data Analytics.
As part of the development of the EDSP, foundational business and real estate data for San Rafael
has been collected and will now be utilized for trend analysis and tracking moving forward. In
coordination with the City’s Digital Service and Open Government Department, staff would obtain
and track business data as a foundational task of the economic development program, and staff
would add to the available data sources specific to San Rafael. The focus would be on improving
our business license data collection and creating a business census that better identifies the
business categories, sectors, and ask for voluntary demographic data to understand our business
community better and adjust or develop programs with specific focuses on industries or business
needs. This data would be the backbone of the data decision-making process that the City is
moving toward and would help inform policy and program outcomes.
Action Item 2.2 Explore the conversion of transitioning the Business Based Improvement
District (BID) to a Property Based Improvement District (PBID) to support enhanced
cleaning, security, marketing, and physical improvements in downtown.
Council recently approved the Chamber of Commerce agreement to support the Downtown BID.
This will allow outreach activity to move forward in the upcoming months to engage both the
businesses and property owners to understand the specific needs of the Downtown and enhance
services. Downtown is a key economic generator and cultural asset for the City. The EDSP
community surveys identified concerns related to safety, cleanliness, and approachability in our
commercial districts. The exploration of a BID to PBID district modification could leverage
additional funding and create partnerships addressing downtown concerns.
Action Item 3.1 Conduct an Enhanced Infrastructure Finance District (EIFD) feasibility
analysis and develop a plan for formation.
With the proposed redevelopment of the Northgate Mall and other development in the Northgate
area and Downtown, the City would be well positioned to explore an EIFD as an economic
development funding tool for needed infrastructure improvements. The EIFD is an authorized
State of California economic development tool that utilizes tax increment financing to help pay for
needed infrastructure. This is a newer financing tool coupled with support from the County of
Marin that could provide for accelerated infrastructure improvements or enhancements for the
community within the established boundaries. The State has defined affordable housing and
climate resiliency projects as eligible infrastructure projects through an EIFD.
Action Item 4.1 Explore the formation of a Countywide Tourism Improvement District or
increasing the San Rafael Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) to support tourism marketing and
increase the tourism sector.
Both the City and the County have identified the tourism sector as a key economic industry. With
the return of travel and tourism, hotel stays have been stabilizing. San Rafael will have a new AC
Marriott hotel opening in Summer 2023 and foundation work has begun for a dual brand Hilton hotel
featuring a Hampton Inn and H2 Hotel in East San Rafael. As the tourism market continues to grow,
there are potential exploration activities for a Countywide tourism improvement district or increasing
the San Rafael TOT, which currently is 12% (10% City + 2% County).
Action Item 6.4 Increase Cannabis business opportunities through the release of new
cannabis licenses and creation of cannabis specific business programs targeting growth and
capacity building. Business opportunities should include the exploration of retail storefront
cannabis licenses.
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The cannabis sector in the state and in San Rafael is going through a transition phase of market
consolidation and recalibration. The City has the ability to release new license types, but has held
them waiting for market stabilization and attempting to support our current license holders before
releasing additional licenses into the local market. One license type that needs further evaluation is
retail cannabis storefront. There has yet to be a cannabis retail storefront in Marin County, but the
City has been approached by successful cannabis retail storefront businesses operating in other
Bay Area counties looking to expand. There may be opportunities to explore retail storefront permits
and establish regulations for hemp derived products targeted at youth.
The above action items would be considered foundational economic development activities or would
potentially generate funding or provide needed services to enhance the City’s economic vitality. There
are other action items that could also be explored depending on Council prioritization and resource
allocation. It is anticipated that City staff would provide periodic updates on the Economic Development
program and progress on the EDSP as part of the City Council Economic Development Subcommittee
meetings and an annual report to the City Council.
COMMUNITY OUTREACH:
Since the beginning of 2022, staff attended monthly meetings of both the Chamber of Commerce and
the Business Improvement District Board, where members of the business community are invited and
regularly attend. Staff provided updates on the progress of the EDSP at these meetings. Attendees of
these meetings were provided the opportunity to share their thoughts and feedback on important factors
to include in the EDSP.
In August and September 2022, Kosmont conducted in-person and virtual stakeholder interviews to
gather community feedback on priority issues and goals for the EDSP. In the Fall of 2022, Kosmont
distributed two surveys to the community: a general community survey for residents of San Rafael, and
a business survey with targeted questions for business owners. Both surveys were translated into
Spanish to make providing input accessible and equitable and ensure that the feedback reflected the
diversity of San Rafael.
As stated above, in February and April 2023, respectively, Kosmont presented their economic baseline
study and draft strategies to the Economic Development Subcommittee for feedback. In addition, City
staff presented the EDSP to the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce Economic Vitality and Governmental
Affairs Committee.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW:
Adoption of the EDSP is statutorily exempt from the California Environmental Quality Act pursuant to
section 15262 of the California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines because the EDSP is a policy and
planning document which guides possible future actions which have not been approved, adopted or
funded.
FISCAL IMPACT:
There is no immediate fiscal impact should Council adopt the EDSP. The Economic Development
Strategic Plan will be used to identify and prioritize economic development tasks and goals. Funding to
support the tasks will be allocated through the annual budget process. Larger projects may be brought
to Council for approval where appropriate.
OPTIONS:
The City Council has the following options to consider on this matter:
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1. Adopt resolution as presented;
2. Approve a modified version of the resolution;
3. Direct staff to return with further information.
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
1. Adopt resolution adopting the Economic Development Strategic Plan.
ATTACHMENTS:
1. Resolution adopting the Economic Development Strategic Plan
2. Exhibit A: Economic Development Strategic Plan
3. General Community Survey and Business Survey
4. Data Appendix
5. Task / Workload Dashboard
RESOLUTION NO. 15216
RESOLUTION OF THE SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL ADOPTING
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
WHEREAS, economic recovery has been identified as one of the four policy focus areas
in the City of San Rafael City Council 2021-2022 Goals and Objectives; and
WHEREAS, an Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP) was identified as a key
project to build back the San Rafael economy from the impacts from the COVID-19
pandemic; and
WHEREAS, the City engaged the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce, and business and
community leaders for industry focus groups to create the scope of work focus areas for
the development of an EDSP; and
WHEREAS, on June 21, 2022, City Council approved a professional services agreement
with the Kosmont Companies for the creation of an EDSP; and
WHEREAS, Kosmont Companies completed a series of community engagements with
key business and community stakeholders and launched a community-wide economic
survey; and
WHEREAS, the Economic Development Strategic Plan was presented to the City Council
Economic Development subcommittee on February 9, 2023 and April 13, 2023 on publicly
noticed meetings; and
WHEREAS, the project is exempt from California Environmental Quality Act pursuant to
section 15062 because the San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan is a policy
document to guide the future of the City’s economic development activities and policy
approaches.
NOW, THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED, that the City Council hereby adopts the
Economic Development Strategic Plan (Exhibit A). This adoption is based on and
supported by the following findings and determinations:
1. The public interest would be served by the adoption of the EDSP in that it provides
targeted economic development tasks and activities to increase the economic
vitality and resilience. Specifically, it identifies foundational economic development
programs and identifies revenue and partnership initiatives to support economic
opportunity.
2. As drafted, the EDSP would be consistent with the General Plan 2040, specifically
the Economic Vitality element. The EDSP provides recommendations for
Economic Vitality Policies: EV1.1 Quality of Life; EV1.2- Strategic Planning; EV1.3-
Relationship Building; EV1.4-Business Retention and Support; EV1.5-Business
Attraction; EV1.6- Monitoring; and EV1.7 – Marketing and Branding. The EDSP
program recommendations would: 1) provide economic data and information; 2)
create a strategic plan; 3) strengthen strategic partnerships; 4) create a retention
and support program; 5) diversify the economy; 6) monitor economic development
program outcomes; and 7) support marketing and branding programs.
3. The project is statutorily exempt from the California Environmental Quality Act
pursuant to section 15262 of the California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines
because the EDSP is a policy and planning document which guides possible future
actions which have not been approved, adopted or funded.
I, LINDSAY LARA, Clerk of the City of San Rafael, hereby certify that the foregoing
Resolution was duly and regularly introduced and adopted at a regular meeting of the City
Council of the City of San Rafael, held on Monday, the 15th day of May 2023, by the
following vote, to wit:
AYES: Councilmembers: Bushey, Kertz, Llorens Gulati & Mayor Kate
NOES: Councilmembers: None
ABSENT: Councilmembers: Hill
Lindsay Lara, City Clerk
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
El Segundo, CA
TEL: 424-297-1070 | URL: www.kosmont.com
CITY OF SAN RAFAEL
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
May 15, 2023
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 2
CITY OF SAN RAFAEL
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
Kosmont Companies Staff San Rafael City Council San Rafael Staff & Other Advisory
Ken K. Hira, President
Thomas Jirovsky, Senior Advisor
Robert Valenti, Vice President
Kate Colin, Mayor
Maika Llorens Gulati, Councilmember, District 1
Eli Hill, Councilmember, District 2
Maribeth Bushey, Councilmember, District 3
Rachel Kertz, Councilmember, District 4
Jim Schutz, City Manager
Christine Alilovich, Assist. City Manager
Micah Hinkle, Director of Economic Development
Victoria Lim, Senior Management Analyst
San Rafael Chamber of Commerce
Joanne Webster, President / CEO
Joshua Townsend, Government Affairs
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KOSMONT COMPANIES | 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Pages
1 Background & Overview 4 -18
2 Economic Development Strategies 19 -34
3 Economic Development Toolkit 35 -53
4 Economic / Land Use Trends & Case Studies 54 -76
Data Appendix (Separate Document)
Business / Community Survey Results Appendix (Separate Document)
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1. BACKGROUND & OVERVIEW
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
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SAN RAFAEL
REGIONAL
CONTEXT
San Rafael is the County Seat and largest city
in Marin County,with a population of over
61,000 spread over 16 square miles of land
adjacent to the San Francisco bay.It was
settled by the Spanish in 1817 with the
construction of Mission San Rafael
Archangel.It was incorporated as a City in
1874 and grew substantially as it was
connected to the national railroad network.
With the construction of the Golden Gate
bridge and the Richmond-San Rafael bridge,
the City has excellent vehicle access to both
the San Francisco Peninsula and the East Bay.
The City also provides easy access to the
Sonoma /Napa Valley wine country and the
Mendocino Coast.
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BACKGROUND
Kosmont Companies ("Kosmont") was retained by the City of San Rafael (“City”) to prepare this Economic
Development Strategic Plan (“EDSP”).
The EDSP addresses existing economic conditions, regional real estate trends and opportunities and provides
tactical recommendations on business attraction, expansion, and retention through place-making recommendations
and community feedback.
Given shifting consumer preferences and changes in land use, uncertain economic realities, it is imperative that San
Rafael identify opportunities within the City to spur development and increase revenues.
The EDSP includes an assessment of economic / market conditions, an assessment of key commercial districts and
sites, as well as insights from community / stakeholder outreach.
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APPROACH
Kosmont’s approach to preparing the Economic Development Strategic Plan included the following tasks:
Review of City Budget and Planning documents, together with a daylong tour of the City and its business
and residential districts
Interviews with City staff, Council members, and community stakeholders
Assessment of regional economic trends
Assessment of local demographic and market conditions
In person and virtual community outreach to gain insights as to needs and challenges and present
preliminary findings
Detailed assessment of major commercial districts
Identification of key opportunities and short-term / long-term strategies
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VISION AND OBJECTIVES
Vision:
The EDSP is designed to help strengthen the local economic base and fiscal health of the City;provide a wide range of
employment and educational opportunities for its residents;enable the City to leverage State and Federal grants,loans
and policy tools;and achieve greater resiliency in light of the Covid-19 pandemic .
Core Objectives:
1.Increase fiscal revenue;
2.Enhance City’s commercial and residential market by attracting a healthy balance of local and national businesses
and developing a wide range of housing options;
3.Enhance employment,educational and business opportunities;
4.Create job opportunities for younger generations;
5.Fund critical physical improvements to infrastructure.
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GOALS & CHALLENGES
The City has identified several challenges:
Restore Downtown’s economic vibrancy
Maintain/expand industrial and office job opportunities
Capitalize on the access to SF,east Bay and Wine Country
Absentee /nonresponsive landlords
Goals to be addressed as part of long-term planning efforts:
Economic recovery from Covid impacts
Sustainability /Climate Change
Racial Equality
Housing /Homelessness
Neighborhood Vitality
Improve Public Safety
Provide more Public Assets
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COMMUNITY AREAS
Downtown
A thriving commercial center in the 1950’s with several major department
stores,the Downtown still holds a major concentration of City’s commercial
core with 25%of the office inventory and 30%of the retail inventory.New
hotel and residential units are under construction,as well as regional transit
center.City owns several surface parking lots and two structures that may need
reimagining.
Northgate
Suffering from loss of retail anchors due to growth of e-commerce and big box
cannibalization,Northgate Mall is undergoing a major redevelopment process,
shrinking retail square footage and adding over 1,000 new MF units.The
Northgate Industrial Park /Smith Ranch area is home to a variety of flex
industrial /office /retail spaces,and could be have an opportunity for
revitalization.The 8-acre movie theater site at 280 Smith Ranch Road is an
opportunity site for higher density development.
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COMMUNITY AREAS
Canal Area
The Canal Area plays an important part in the City’s
economy,and is an industrial backbone for Marin
County:
Over 80%of the industrial/flex space
30%of the retail space and most high-volume car
dealerships
15%of the office space
20%of apartments,serving predominantly low-
moderate income households who represent a major
part of the service industry workforce
Federal Opportunity Zone,with tax advantages for
certain types of real estate and business investment
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COMMUNITY AREAS
Central San Rafael
This area of the city encompasses residential neighborhoods to the south-
west and north-east of Downtown /Canal areas,such as Gerstle Park,West
End,Sun Valley,Dominican,and Montecito.Dominican University is a major
anchor institution in the area,educating ~1,800 students.These areas are
home to neighborhood-serving retail along 4th Street and Lincoln Ave .
San Pedro Peninsula
This area is located east of Central San Rafael,and is home to residentialareassuchasCountryClub,Loch Lomond,and Peacock Gap.China CampStateParkislocatedinthenorthernpartofthisarea,featuring hiking,biking,
and open space.The McNear –Dutra Quarry is an operating quarry andmajorsupplierofconstructionmaterialtotheregion,and there is somelong-term opportunity in the future after quarry is closed /reclaimed.Thisareaisalsoservedbysomeneighborhood-serving retail along Point San
Pedro Road.
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ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
The City retained Kosmont to prepare the EDSP to develop a strategy that better positions San Rafael to face the economic forces that are reshaping the modern economy:
Today’s consumers are using online websites for purchasing a broad array of goods. As e-commerce continues to take an increasing percentage of consumer spending, cities must take new approaches to land use that explore concepts for public amenities and private attractions that help cities capture trips and thus “sales”.
Younger consumers, with increased use of media and digital communication, seek gathering places with restaurants, entertainment venues and experiential retail, rather than simply a collection of traditional store fronts.
Telework dynamics have drastically changed work patterns over the past few years and are poised to reshape
office needs. Creative class professionals are attracted to communities with clustered centers, which provide a
sense of vitality, diversity, convenience and a mix of work, entertainment, services, arts and culture.
Kosmont is assisting the City in achieving its economic objective by providing strategies, market analysis and recommendation –both citywide, as well as focused on particular commercial districts in the City. The goal is to foster economic vitality throughout the business districts of San Rafael, improving business conditions and resident quality of life.
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DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW
San Rafael has a population of ~61,500, with ~8% growth over the past 20 years
Average Household Size is 2.6 persons, and the Median Age is 42.3 years; residents are well
educated, with ~57% achieving at least a bachelors degree
City Average Household Income is $164,800, approx. ~14% less than County and 27% higher
than statewide levels
San Rafael sees a Net Inflow of ~14,300 jobs, with workers coming from San Rafael, Novato, San
Francisco, and Petaluma
Jobs in the City are primarily in the Healthcare / Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Construction, and
Professional / Scientific / Technical Services sectors
Residents of the City are primarily employed in the Health Care / Social Assistance, Professional /
Scientific / Technical Services, Accommodation / Food Services, and Retail Trade sectors.
Note: Additional demographic data / analysis is available in Appendix
Source: ESRI BAO, Census Bureau OnTheMap, California Department of Finance
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FISCAL & BUDGET OVERVIEW
The city receives ~89% of its General Fund revenue from taxes. The
majority (52%) of City tax revenue comes from sales taxes, and
~37% from property taxes. The remainder comes from franchise,
business, and transient occupancy taxes.
Sales tax revenues have grown ~7% annually since 2012, driven by
Measure E and Measure R rate increases and dramatic growth in
county pool revenues.
Property taxes have grown ~7% annually since 2012, with assessed
value growth driven by high real estate values and mark-to-market
reassessments. San Rafael collects an estimated 12.2% of the 1%
Property Tax general levy.
Source: San Rafael 2022-23 Proposed Budget, 2022 ACFR
FY2022-23 Budget
Property Taxes $ 24,409,721
Property Tax -VLF Backfill 6,700,000
Sales Tax 25,085,742
Sales Tax -Measure E 14,694,975
Sales Tax -Measure R 4,898,325
Franchise Tax 4,182,016
Business Tax 2,669,567
Transient Occupancy Tax 2,483,067
Taxes Subtotal 85,123,413
Revenues from Other Agencies
CSA #19 Fire Service 2,442,513
Other Agencies 1,903,252
Other
Permits & Licenses 3,010,159
Fine & Forfeiture 186,732
Interest & Rents 47,500
Charges for Services 2,568,965
Other Revenue 588,196
Total 95,870,730Note: Additional fiscal data / analysis is available in Appendix
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MARKET OVERVIEW
San Rafael saw limited growth in commercial, industrial, and apartment markets over the past decade. Commercial real estate rents and occupancy have been fairly stable over the past 10 years.
The retail market is facing challenges as e-commerce reshapes consumer preferences –straining demand for regional shopping centers as well as downtown retail districts
The office market is also undergoing changes as telework restructures employer needs and commute patterns –reshaping downtown business districts and office parks
The industrial market is strong, driven by high demand for logistics / warehouse; San Rafael serves as the industrial heart of Marin with a large amount of construction / building spaces; strong demand for R&D / lab space in Bay Area could be increase demand in San Rafael
The multifamily residential market continues to see high demand due to the housing shortage in California
While San Rafael only represents less than
25% of Marin County’s population, the
City represents a much more significant
share of Marin County economic activity:
•Retail: 38% of inventory, rents are 12%
lower and vacancy is 0.2% lower
•Office: 43% of inventory, rents are 3%
lower and vacancy is 3.4% lower
•Industrial: 62% of inventory, rents are
2% higher and vacancy is 2.9% lower
•Flex / R&D: 32% of inventory, rents are
5% lower and vacancy is 1.1% lower
•Multifamily: 40% of inventory, rents are
16% lower and vacancy is 0.3% lower
Note: Additional market data / analysis is available in Appendix
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ILLUSTRATIVE FISCAL REVENUE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT
To evaluate San Rafael economic opportunities and understand their impact on City revenues,the table below provides an
illustration of incremental tax revenues potentially generated from various types of development on a typical 1-acre parcel:
10,000 SF
Commercial
Services
10,000 SF
Retail
10,000 SF
Restaurant
Blended-Use
Multifamily /
Retail
60-room
Upscale Hotel
Property Taxes +
VLF $10,000 $10,000 $15,000 $55,000 $40,000
Direct Sales Taxes $25,000 $50,000 $85,000 $25,000 $20,000
Indirect Sales Taxes $20,000 $20,000
Hotel TOT $370,000
Annual General
Fund Revenues $35,000 $60,000 $100,000 $100,000 $450,000
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STAKEHOLDER / COMMUNITY OUTREACH OVERVIEW
Kosmont worked with the City to conduct a variety of outreach efforts to solicit feedback from stakeholders and
community members, including interviews / group meetings, a business survey, and a community survey.
Stakeholder Interviews Business Survey Community Survey
Interviews emphasized the importance of the
San Rafael economic engine, entrepreneurial
spirit, artistic / historic character, and engaging
events and activities.
Challenges identified include development costs
and processes, beautification improvements
needed, and flood risks.
Opportunities include better utilization of the
waterfront area, more events to attract visitors,
and a stronger connection to Dominican
University.
Results show that top challenges facing
businesses include High Rent / City Fees,
Retaining / Hiring Employees, Safety /
Cleanliness.
Top City priorities include Homelessness,
Cleanliness / Appearance / Illegal Dumping,
Improving Public Safety, Housing, and
Sustainability / Climate Change
Respondents value a wide variety of new
developments in the Downtown and North San
Rafael areas, including Arts / Cultural /
Educational options, Shopping / Other Retail,
Fine Dining, Family Restaurants, Gathering
Places, and Multifamily Housing.
Results also show support for City investment
in civic improvements / amenities, with the top-
ranking choices including Cleanliness /
Appearance, Traffic Flow, Safety, Mobility /
Walkability / Bike-ability / Transit, Public Art /
Plazas / Walkways, and Streetscape / Design.
Note: Additional stakeholder / survey / community outreach data is available in Appendix
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2. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
The following section prioritizes strategies for the City to consider to achieve the economic goals.Action Items for each strategy are
identified,as well as responsible organization.An estimated investment range for each strategy is identified below,recognizing that the
City has $300,000 per year currently available for Economic Development programs,in addition to the two professional staff members.
1.Support Business /Development ($$$)
2.Downtown Reimagination ($$$)
3.Analyze Implementation of Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District (EIFD)($)
4.Strengthen Local Partnerships ($)
5.Attract High-Tech Industrial Uses ($)
6.Outreach for Private and Business Development Opportunities ($$)
7.Workforce Development Programs ($$)
$=$50,000 to $200,000
$$=$200,000 to 500,000
$$$=$500,000 to $750,000
Estimated new annual investment of $500,000 is needed to implement the Economic Development Strategies over next 3-5 years
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STRATEGY 1: SUPPORT BUSINESS / DEVELOPMENT
City Economic Development –Cost $$$
Business-friendliness is a vital component to support the needs of businesses, developers and to foster entrepreneurship in the City,
bolstering the local economy.
Action Item 1.1: Create a Business Expansion, Attraction, and Retention (BEAR) program. Modify existing economic development
program to provide enhanced customer service to support business development.
Action Item 1.2:Develop or sponsor technical assistance programs to support emerging businesses/entrepreneurs living or doing
business in San Rafael’s designated Opportunity Zone.
Action Item 1.3:Maintain enhanced business and development data analytics to track economic and market trends.
Action Item 1.4: Increase bi-lingual staffing with cultural and language capacity to support and enhance access to business
development programs.
Action Item 1.5: Sponsor “Shark Tank” type competition and other networking events to promote new entrepreneurial ideas and
bolster the local entrepreneur network.
The Economic Trends section identifies key aspects to fostering entrepreneurship in a community, and the Case Study section
highlights approaches that the City of Thousand Oaks and the City of Corona took to foster entrepreneurship in their communities.
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STRATEGY 2: DOWNTOWN REIMAGINATION
City Economic Development –Cost $$$
Activating Fourth Street is the key for successful downtown revitalization in San Rafael.
Action Item 2.1:Consider programs that can help existing businesses thrive (such as façade improvement programs,streetery /
outdoor retail)and help existing properties utilize their space (such as expanding allowable uses in storefront spaces,sales tax in-lieu
payment for non-retail uses,etc).Prioritize program implementation to Opportunity Zones and under-invested commercial areas in
the City.
Action Item 2.2:Explore conversion or expansion of the Business Based Improvement District to a Property Based District to support
enhanced cleaning,security,marketing and physical improvements in downtown.(revenue generating /funding capacity)
Action Item 2.3:Evaluate publicly-owned opportunity sites in the downtown area –such as the surface parking lots and parking
garages –to evaluate potential reuse strategies that aim to add gathering places,activities,and other amenities.
As shown in Trends /Case Studies,property owners are exploring new uses and programming to activate underutilized parking lots,
ranging from short-term temporary reuses for special events to semi-permanent reuses that provide spaces for people to gather.The
Real Estate Strategies Toolkit section identifies key aspects of real estate strategies as well as an overview of potential publicly-owned
opportunity sites,such as under-utilized parking properties.
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DOWNTOWN REIMAGINATION -CONTINUED
Action Item 2.4:Invest in physical improvements that can create sense of place and further activate the downtown area—through
pedestrian-oriented improvements such as plazas and outdoor spaces,water features,running/walking paths,street improvements,
sidewalks,transit /micro-transit services,and pedestrian malls.
Action Item 2.5:Invest in other enhancements such as gateway signage and wayfinding,public art,thematic street and sidewalk
enhancements,and public open space .
Action Item 2.6:Grow social media engagement channels,social medial influencer/engagement channels,as well as marketing/trade
publications to promote Downtown businesses and events.
Pedestrian mall and related case studies explain how pedestrian-oriented improvements,events,and other placemaking strategies /
interventions are used to drive activity and engagement in downtown areas –improving the experience for residents and visitors and
bolstering the local economy.
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STRATEGY 3: ANALYZE IMPLEMENTATION OF EIFD
City Economic Development –Cost $
Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts are a type of tax increment financing district that allows local governments to capture new
assessed value creation and finance public projects (such as infrastructure,affordable housing)using property tax revenue from new
development.
Action Item 3.1:Conduct feasibility analysis,develop plan for district formation.
Action Item 3.2:Work with Marin County to identify mutually beneficial investments to encourage sharing of a portion of County tax
increment.(revenue generating /funding capacity)
Action Item 3.3:Pursue grants that align with goals of the district,particularly those that give preference to EIFDs –Infill
Infrastructure Grants,Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities Grants,and Transformative Climate Communities grants.
(revenue generating /funding capacity)
As explained in the Economic Toolkit section below,EIFDs may be well suited for San Rafael’s opportunity areas such as Northgate
that have significant infrastructure needs (roads /connectivity,water /sewer,electricity,telecom /broadband).These districts are
being utilized by communities across California to induce private sector investment,accelerate growth,create jobs,grow fiscal
revenues and capture value .
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STRATEGY 4: STRENGTHEN LOCAL PARTNERSHIPS
City Economic Development –Cost $
Local organizations such as the Chamber of Commerce,Canal Alliance,and Downtown BID are important partners to improve theeconomicenvironmentforallareasoftheCity.By strengthening these partnerships,the City will develop a greater capacity to pursueeconomicdevelopmentinitiativesandfacilitatecooperation/collaboration across public,private,and non-profit entities.
Action Item 4.1:Explore the formation of a Countywide Tourism Improvement District or increasing the San Rafael TransientOccupancyTaxorothertourismfundingmodeltosupporttourismmarketingandincreasetourismsectorgrowth.(revenuegenerating/funding capacity)
Action Item 4.2:Evaluate current list of community events &programming (e .g.,Dining Under the Lights,Block Parties,
festivals/cultural events,outdoor athletic events,live music/concerts,performing arts,etc .).Expand special events in Canal,Terra Linda
and Downtown area –such as block parties,public markets,outdoor dining,outdoor music /movies,and other events.
Action Item 4.3: Establish partnerships and leverage cross promotional opportunities between City, Marin County, business owners, and other organizations. Regional marketing is a more cost-efficient way to attract new industry and encourage visitors to use Marin County as a base for regional tourism.
Action Item 4.4: Pursue tourism marketing, San Rafael as a gateway to the Mendocino Coast and Sonoma/Napa Valley wine country.
Action Item 4.5: Coordinate with arts organizations to integrate arts programming with events and economic development initiatives,
building upon the Cultural Arts District designation.
Action Item 4.6: Collaborate with service organizations such as Canal Alliance to support programs that address workforce development, entrepreneurship, and economic resiliency.
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STRATEGY 5: ATTRACT HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIAL USES
City Economic Development –Cost $
As shown by the success of BioMarin,San Rafael is well positioned to attract bio-tech and other high-tech industrial businesses.LifeSciencesareoneofthekeyexpandingeconomicclustersinMarinCounty,driven by the flourishing tech economy of the greater BayArea.
Action Item 5.1:Revise industrial zoning restrictions and entitlement policies/processes to ensure that they facilitate new industrial uses.
Action Item 5.2:Pursue new sectors that can expand the breadth and variety of its industrial core and jobs base .Potential growthopportunitiesincludebiotechnology,research and development,and e-commerce fulfillment.
Action Item 5.3:Identify target areas for tech industrial development (e .g.Smith Ranch,Canal)and consider overlay zoning to facilitatedevelopment.
Action Item 5.4: Conduct outreach to existing businesses, develop relationships with industry groups to foster collaboration, and identify / address business feasibility issues (infrastructure, procedural, etc.).
The Strategic Land Use Policies Toolkit section identifies key aspects to revising zoning and entitlement processes to facilitate desired development activity. Economic Trends section identifies key aspects to promoting biotech and life sciences businesses (such as access to necessary infrastructure, local tax / administrative policy, and availability of housing and transit).The Case Study highlights the approach that the City of San Diego took to advance the biotech sector in the La Jolla area of the City.
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STRATEGY 6: OUTREACH FOR PRIVATE AND BUSINESS
DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
City Economic Development –Cost $$Proactively work with property-owners to understand challenges and opportunities that may align with the City’seconomicdevelopmentgoals.Action Item 6.1:Identify and analyze key privately-owned sites that are well-positioned for reuse or redevelopment.
Action Item 6.2: Conduct outreach and collaborate with property owners to explore development opportunities and address challenges that can bring new uses to privately-owned sites.
Action Item 6.3: Pursue businesses and developers, in coordination with property owners.
Action Item 6.4: Increase Cannabis business opportunities through release of new cannabis licenses and creation of cannabis specific business programs targeting growth and capacity building of existing permittees. Business opportunities should include exploration of retail storefront cannabis licenses and other State allowed business types in appropriate commercial locations. (revenue generating / funding capacity)
Action Item 6.5: Mobile Vendor Ordinance Update: Update the City’s Mobile Vender Ordinance to create a legal pathway for mobile vending in appropriate commercial locations. Utilize community partners with language and cultural capacity for vendor outreach and permitting technical support.
The Real Estate Strategies Toolkit section identifies key aspects of real estate strategies as well as an overview of potenti al privately-owned opportunity sites, such as the Smith Ranch movie theater site and the Marin Square shopping center site.
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STRATEGY 7: WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS
City Economic Development –Cost $$
Expand Workforce Development programs to help local residents gain access to career pathways –setting low-income workers on a
path to higher wage careers,improving their economic situations and also helping area businesses gain access to a higher-quality
pipeline of talent.
Action Item 7.1:Coordinate with Workforce Alliance of the Northbay,Dominican University,local school /community college
districts,the Chamber of Commerce,Canal Alliance,and other area nonprofit organizations to encourage collaboration with
local/regional educational and workforce-development organizations for training,mentorship,and job placement programs.
Action Item 7.2:Conduct outreach to local businesses to assess skills gaps and other issues with finding workers,and conduct
outreach to local aid organizations to better understand barriers that impact workforce readiness (such as language,childcare,transit,
and internet accessibility).
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PERFORMANCE METRICS
Performance metrics will allow the City to identify progress made and determine what barriers to economic development continue to
exist,what responses have proven successful or otherwise,and which projects are scheduled for development.The following metrics
are recommended to be measured each calendar year and compared to the prior year’s results:
1.BEAR Program Participation –Track number of BEAR program participants,investment captured,and jobs created
2.Annual Reports on EIFD Funding –identify the revenues received and specify the planned investments
3.Commercial Building Permits in Key Areas –measure commercial developer interest
4.Assessed Value of Commercial and Industrial Property –show increased private sector investment
5.Number and Type of Business Licenses –measure new business formations
6.Employment by Industry –show success in commercial and industrial business attraction and employment growth
7.Sales Tax Revenues by Geographic District –measure success in attracting businesses and economic activity
8.Hotel Tax Revenues –measure success in attracting more visitors
9.Hotel Visitor Survey –identify types of visitors,short term vs longer term stays
10.Annual Survey of Business Owners –identify issues regarding City permitting /zoning process and other programs toinformCitystaffofprogress/shortcomings
11.Special Event Data:number of events,attendance estimates –show success of community outreach efforts,revitalization efforts,and general marketing
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1: Support Business / Development
#Action Item Cost Workload Timeframe
1.1 BEAR Program $Year 1
1.2 Technical Assistance
Programs $Year 2
1.3 Business /
Development Data $Ongoing
1.4 Bi-lingual Staff $$$$Ongoing
1.5 Entrepreneurial
Events $$Year 1
2: Downtown Reimagination
#Action Item Cost Workload Timeframe
2.1 Business Programs $$$Year 3 -4
2.2*
Explore conversion
of the BBID to a
PBID $Year 1
2.3
Evaluate publicly-
owned sites for
reuse $Year 2-3
2.4 Placemaking physical
improvements $$$$Year 3-5
2.5 Other physical
enhancements $$$Year 3-5
2.6 Marketing / social
media $Ongoing
3: Analyze Implementation of EIFD
#Action Item Cost Workload Timeframe
3.1 Feasibility analysis /
plan $Q1-Q3
3.2*Explore County
Partnership $Year 1-2
3.3*Pursue Grants $Ongoing
ACTION ITEM RESOURCES
Estimated Workload During Timeframe
10-20% of employee workload
20-40% of employee workload
40-60% of employee workload
60-100% of employee workload
Star (*) -items that generate revenue / funding capacity
Estimated Cost thru Year 5
$<$50,000
$ $$50,000 to $150,000
$ $ $$150,000 to $300,000
$ $ $ $>$300,000
Cost does not include allocation of current Econ Dev
staff salaries
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4: Strengthen Local Partnerships
#Action Item Cost Workload Timeframe
4.1*Explore tourism
funding models $Year 1-2
4.2
Explore / expand
events and
programming $$$Year 1-3
4.3 Marketing
partnerships $Year 1
4.4 Tourism marketing $Year 1
4.5 Arts programming $Year 1
4.6 Collaborate with
service organizations $Year 2
5: Attract High-tech Industrial Uses
#Action Item Cost Workload Timeframe
5.1
Revise zoning /
processes for
industrial uses $$Year 3-5
5.2 Pursue new
industrial sectors $Year 1-2
5.3
Evaluate tech
industrial overlay
zoning $$Year 2
5.4
Conduct outreach
businesses, industry
grps $Year 1-2
6: Outreach for Private / Business
Development Opportunities
#Action Item Cost Workload Timeframe
6.1 Identify / analyze
sites for reuse $Year 1-2
6.2
Outreach /
collaborate with
property owners $Year 1-2
6.3 Pursue businesses /
developers $Year 2
6.4*Cannabis business
opportunities $$Year 2-3
6.5 Update Mobile
Vender Ordinance $$Year 2-3
7: Workforce Development Programs
#Action Item Cost Workload Timeframe
7.1
Coordinate with
orgs. for workforce
development $Year 3-5
7.2
Conduct outreach
to local businesses /
orgs.$Tear 3-5
ACTION ITEM RESOURCES
Estimated Workload During Timeframe
10-20% of employee workload
20-40% of employee workload
40-60% of employee workload
60-100% of employee workload
Star (*) -items that generate revenue / funding capacity
Estimated Cost thru Year 5
$<$50,000
$ $$50,000 to $150,000
$ $ $$150,000 to $300,000
$ $ $ $>$300,000
Cost does not include allocation of current Econ Dev
staff salaries
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SAN RAFAEL STRENGTHS
▪Economic Engine for Marin County:the City is home to major employers,retail centers,downtown district,industrial uses,
civic /cultural institutions,entrepreneurs,and essential workers.
▪Unique Character:The City is stepped in history and serves as a gateway between the Bay Area and Wine Country (Sonoma
and Napa Valley);City has Downtown Cultural Arts District and arts organizations;a “green”and active community with parks,
trees,outdoor activities,and waterfront;events bring liveliness and activity.
▪Commercial Sites:Key sites are available for development throughout the City.
▪Diverse Workforce:Strong local labor options;entrepreneurial spirit –from small businesses to tech entrepreneurs.
▪Anchor Institutions:Dominican University and BioMarin are major providers of education and employment opportunities;
County Civic Center and City offices play a role in providing services /programs /events;other nearby educational partners
include College of Marin.
▪Transportation Access:The City is accessible through SMART passenger rail service and local bus service,and US-101 and I-
580 –can support future transit-oriented development and connectivity.
▪Business Organizations:Chamber of Commerce is very active and meets with businesses regularly.
▪Relative Affordability:Lower cost single-family housing compared to Marin County and the San Francisco peninsula.
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SAN RAFAEL CHALLENGES
▪Commercial Vacancies:Some vacant /abandoned /blighted buildings and nonresponsive /absentee property owners.
▪Market Trends:Retail in downtown challenged by e-commerce,office parks challenged by telework.
▪Zoning /Development Code:Required Conditional Use Permits in Industrial Zoning is obstacle to high value development.
▪Worker Shortage:Long commutes for many workers impacts employee retention for many businesses.
▪Limited Development Activity:Previous hesitance to new housing development has historically stalled development.
▪Homeless /Crime:Perceptions of crime,homelessness,and parking challenges impact commercial activity.
▪Environmental Risk:Commercial areas are in flood-risk areas,such as the Canal district and parts of Downtown.
▪Development Costs:High cost of construction materials and labor due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic .
▪Economic Uncertainty:The uncertainty of economic conditions such as Federal Reserve restricting liquidity to reduce
inflationary pressures.
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SAN RAFAEL OPPORTUNITIES
▪Downtown Revitalization:Precise Plan takes a placemaking approach and brings predictability to downtown development,
paving the way for new activity.
▪City /County Partnership:Potential joint ventures with Marin County thru EIFD or CRD to fund infrastructure and affordable
housing.
▪Tourism:As a gateway to the Mendocino Coast and Sonoma/Napa Valley wine country,San Rafael can capture significant portion
of regional tourist visit.
▪Northgate Town Center:Development Agreement for conversion of the Northgate Mall into a blended use Town Center and
over 1,000 housing units can be major catalyst for North San Rafael.
▪Parking Structures and Parking Lots:City-owned parking structures and surface lots provide opportunities for reuse and
reactivation.
▪Federal Opportunity Zone (“OZ”):Canal Area development can benefit from OZ and EIFD’s to spur additional investment
in new development projects.
▪SMART:Regional rail service connecting the Sonoma Valley to San Rafael and connecting to the Ferry service to San Francisco,
provided transit-oriented development (“TOD”)opportunities.
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3. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TOOLKIT
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TOOLKIT OVERVIEW
Business Expansion, Attraction, and Retention
(BEAR)
Focus on business and developer outreach to deliver quality jobs and fiscal
revenue.
Real Estate Strategies
Use strategies to better utilize the value of city properties –performance-
based leases / ground leases, monetizing assets (such as parking garages,
selling property to private sector, etc.)
Special Districts for Infrastructure Financing
CFD’s, EIFD’s, CRD’s
Use TIF and other district tools (such as Enhanced Infrastructure Financing
Districts –EIFDs and Climate Resilience Districts) to capture taxes from
assessed value increases to fund infrastructure needs.
Zoning and Land Use Strategies
Development Opportunity Reserve (D.O.R.)®
Zoning and entitlements create value; capture the value from zoning
changes to link new density to community benefits and public amenities.
Revenue Replacement Tools Create general fund revenues through development agreements / public-
private partnerships.
Government Funding and Financing
Use government financing tools to generate enhanced revenues to fill
financial gaps of projects in order to encourage private investment and
other tax-generating development.
Grants and Other Public Funding Pursue grant funds available at the state and local level for infrastructure,
housing, and other projects.
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BEAR STRATEGIES
BUSINESS EXPANSION, ATTRACTION, AND RETENTION
Business Expansion, Attraction, and Retention (BEAR) strategies focus on business and developer outreach to deliver
quality jobs and fiscal revenue.
Different strategies to consider include:
•Support: Help existing business through regular check-ins, assistance with resources, and networking opportunities.
•Marketing: Highlight the city as a business-friendly destination with community assets, talented workforce, and success stories.
•Outreach: Conduct target outreach to developers, businesses, and brokers with opportunity site marketing collateral,
correspondence, meetings / site tours, and participation at industry events.
•Collaboration: Foster a supportive environment between businesses, universities, industry groups, and government entities.
•Incentives / Regulatory Reform: Consider regulatory reform efforts, such as permit streamlining, development code changes,
and other policies to foster a business-friendly environment.
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REAL ESTATE STRATEGIES
PUBLICLY-OWNED PROPERTY
Public agency land is often under-utilized, offering the potential to increase value
and revenues (e.g., property tax, sales tax, TOT). Local government-owned real
estate can be leveraged to increase revenue and help stimulate economic
development projects. The land can include former redevelopment Agency
(“RDA”) properties, public use properties (civic centers, fire stations,
recreation), and surplus property (city, school district, utility, other), rights of
way (streets, alleys, parking lots and parking structures).
The State, in its push to have cities develop more affordable housing, has made
subsequent legislative changes (e.g., AB 1486) to strengthen the Surplus Land
Act (SLA). The SLA now requires all public agencies in the State of California to
first offer a property for sale or lease to ‘housing sponsors’ and affordable
housing developers prior to the sale or lease of the asset (unless otherwise
exempt) and will assess penalties if a public agency is not in compliance.
Key Strategies include:
•Performance-Based Leases /Ground
Leases:San Rafael can maintain ownership and
leverage an income stream from an asset via a
ground lease (e.g.,lease revenues)as well as
establish a rent structure based on specific
performance benchmarks thereby reducing risk
for lenders/private investors.
•Monetizing Assets:San Rafael can raise
revenues by monetizing assets such as surface
parking lots /garages.
•Acquisition or Sale of Property:San Rafael
can make strategic acquisitions and/or sell
property for preferred private development
opportunities,as well as utilize strategies such
as lease-back strategies,continued operation of
existing use,and redevelopment of properties
into new uses.
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REAL ESTATE
STRATEGIES
PUBLICLY-OWNED
OPPORTUNITY SITES
DOWNTOWN CITY-OWNED
PARCELS
City Hall / Police
/ Parking
Fire
1
#APN(s)AC Use
1 011-212-15 0.38 Parking
2 011-221-07 0.27 Parking
3 011-224-05, 06 0.26 Parking
4 011-273-17 0.46 Parking
5 011-271-12,
13, 14, 16 0.44 Parking
6 011-252-10 0.17 Parking
Parking Structure
Parking
Structure
2
3Parking
Structure
456
Community
Center
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SPECIAL DISTRICTS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING
Public agencies can utilize a variety of tax increment financing (TIF)district tools to fund infrastructure projects that can
help to motivate private investment.This includes Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts (EIFDs).EIFDs may be well
suited for San Rafael’s opportunity areas such as Northgate that have significant infrastructure needs (roads /connectivity,
water /sewer,electricity,telecom /broadband).
EIFDs utilize property tax revenues from an estimated +$500 million in new development to finance public infrastructure
projects without introducing new or increased taxes.EIFD project areas do not have to be contiguous,allowing them to
target specific areas of high development and high infrastructure need.
➢City receives approximately 16% of every $1 collected in property taxes (including Motor Vehicle In-lieu) (varies by Tax Rate Area)
➢County receives approximately 30%of every $1 collected in property taxes on average
The district commitment of revenues toward infrastructure can induce private sector investment,accelerate growth,create
jobs,and grow fiscal revenues.
TIF districts which involve a City /County joint effort are more likely to win state grant funding sources.
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SPECIAL DISTRICTS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING
EIFD CITY / COUNTY PARTNERSHIP CASE STUDY
Placentia / Orange County EIFD Partnership
•300+ acres: Old Town Placentia Revitalization Plan, Metrolink
Station, TOD Packing House Area
•Infrastructure Financing Plan (IFP) will fund $13 million in
public infrastructure improvements for those areas
•Water, sewer, streets, parking, transit connectivity
•$460M+ expected in new AV from residential, retail,
restaurant development
•Net Fiscal Benefit: $22M to City, $15M to County
BEFORE
AFTER
Implementation
•EIFD feasibility analysis & formation process
•Led education/outreach meetings with County BOS
•Developed County EIFD Policy for City/County EIFD
•Completed first EIFD TIF Court Validation in the state
•Working on TIF Bond—expected by fall of 2022
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SPECIAL DISTRICTS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING
OTHER DISTRICT TOOLS
Property Business
Improvement
Districts (PBID)
Property Business Improvement Districts are special assessments levied on real property to fund improvements and promote
activities the benefit the properties located within the PBID area. This includes capital improvements, parking facilities, s treet /
streetscape improvements, lighting and landscaping, marketing and promotion, and business attraction / retention.The special
assessment amount that each property owner pays must be directly proportional to the benefit received.
Community
Facilities District
(CFD)
Community Facility Districts are a new property assessment or ”special tax” that appears as a separate line item on a tax bill
and can be used to fund infrastructure / services that benefit the property. This includes transportation, parking, street / utility
improvements, hazardous waste remediation, street lighting / sidewalk, and public services.CFDs are useful because they
provide early financing for a variety of critical services and infrastructure.CFDs also pair well with EIFDs as a value capture
strategy –with CFDs providing early funding and EIFDs providing funds as projects are constructed, and tax increment grows.
Parking Authority
District
Parking Authority Districts can utilize a variety of funding sources –including bonds, ad valorem taxes, user fees, parking meter
charges, parking revenues, and City / County contributions –to fund improvements such as parking lots, structures, and
alterations to circulatory infrastructure to facilitate ingress and egress.
Climate
Resilience
District (CRD)
Climate Resilience Districts are a new type of district that can fund projects to mitigate climate change. These districts h ave
broad financing powers, and can fund a wide range of eligible projects, including projects that address sea level rise / floo ding,
extreme weather, wildfire, and drought.
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ZONING AND LAND USE STRATEGIES
ENTITLEMENT AND PERMITTING PROCESSES
Permitting processing delays (i.e.Zoning Variances,
Conditional Use Permits) have the potential to tie up
private resources and discourage investor interest, it
can have a significant impact on business formation and
economic activity.
Permit processing for new businesses can be an
expensive and high-risk endeavor –often featuring
multiple public meetings, and uncertainty whether
permits will ultimately be approved.
At the same time, planning and building departments
can have strained resources and staffing, increasing
application review time and limiting staff resources to
assist applicants.
Key Strategies include:
•Increase Flexibility:Review and revamp zoning and permitting
requirements to ensure flexible requirements that can accommodate
market and changing business and customer dynamics.
•Streamline Process:Identify business and project categories that are
particularly beneficial to the Downtown and create a fast and predictable
process for review /approval.
•Encourage Active Uses:Provide an easy permit process for interesting
and dynamic uses –such as pop-up users,live music /events,outdoor dining
permits,and artistic improvements /installations –that can enhance the
Downtown experience .
•Incentivize Reuse of Struggling Spaces:Provide flexible building
permit rules for properties suited for adaptive reuse and incentivize
conversion of vacant commercial buildings into other uses (such as office,
hotel,residential).
•Specialize:Tailor requirements for infill development to recognize the
often-challenging circumstances involved in infill developments.
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PERMITTED USES IN
INDUSTRIAL ZONES
The San Rafael Zoning Code requires many Technology /
Research & Development uses to get conditional use permits or
other administrative approvals that can be significant obstacles to
attracting these high value industries.
To encourage economic development, some cities re-evaluate
these requirements to ensure that they do not present an undue
burden on development. One strategy is to shift more toward
administrative or by-right approvals for select industries.
Cities still place some restrictions on particular uses, while
generally allowing a category of uses. For example, the City of
Richmond permits Research and Development uses in many of
its industrial districts but with a restriction that biological
research / commercial testing in a laboratory rated for a
Biosafety Level (BSL) 3 or higher requires a CUP. This addresses
the city’s safety concerns, while still providing the flexibility
needed to encourage development.
Note: For illustrative purposes only, refer to Zoning Code for requirements
Use Permit Requirements
Biotechnology firms Conditional Use Permit
Chemical manuf. / processing Conditional Use Permit or Not Allowed
Electronics Industry Conditional Use Permit and/or zoning administrator
Laboratories Conditional Use Permit / zoning administrator
Pharmaceutical manufacturing Conditional Use Permit
Research and Development Facilities Conditional Use Permit or Not Allowed
Research and Development Industry Conditional Use Permit and/or zoning administrator or not allowed
Medical Services (Clinics, laboratories, medical office)Conditional Use Permit or Not Allowed
Cannabis Testing / Lab, Delivery, Manufacture, Distribution Permitted; subject to additional regulations
Storage, Warehousing, Distribution Permitted
Maintenance and Repair Services Permitted; outdoor storage rules
Business Sales / Services Permitted
Personal Services Permitted
Motor Vehicle Sales / Service Varies: Conditional Use Permit, Administrative
Assembly / manufacture / processing Permitted by right unless <300 ft from residential district, Conditional Use Permit
Food service establishments, Brew Pubs Conditional Use Permit or Not Allowed
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ZONING AND LAND USE STRATEGIES
DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY RESERVE D.O.R.®
Zoning and entitlements create value.Cities can avoid simply giving that value away, and instead capture
that value as currency to support community benefits and public amenities.
Old Playbook:
Rezone Areas for New Density
and Expect New Development
Rezoning gives the value of the new density to current property
owners: inflated land values, limited possibility of development.
New Playbook:
Bank Density with Development
Opportunity Reserve D.O.R.®
DOR allows cities to create a “bank” of new density in zoning /
specific plans, allowing them to give the density to projects that
deliver community benefits & public amenities.
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ZONING AND LAND USE STRATEGIES
DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY RESERVE D.O.R.® -PROCESS
Create
D.O.R.
Step 1
Conduct market / economic density analysis to
understand development potential.
Identify sites and areas within community as
areas targeted for new development.
Step 2
Use planning process to create a reserve bank
of density to use in target areas and create an
amenity list of desired community benefits and
advance projects.
Implement
D.O.R.
Step 3
Development Projects apply for density from
the DOR in exchange for amenities and
community benefits delivered.
Step 4
City & Developer sign a Development
Agreement, assigning DOR density to project
with contractual commitment to deliver
amenities or infrastructure.
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ZONING AND LAND USE STRATEGIES
DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY RESERVE D.O.R.® -CASE STUDIES
•Goal: Induce housing development in downtown area
•Benefits & Amenities:public restrooms, off-site improvements, public parking, parking district, public art, parks, green buildings, other
•Incentives:Increase density up to 40 units / acre, increase heights, reduce on-site parking , reduced setbacks, reduced traffic and application fees
Implementation Steps1.Conduct market housing / economic study
2.Discuss new density and public amenities with community
3.Create DOR mechanism as new Zoning / Specific Plan provision
•Goal: Increase downtown density along with community benefits and public improvements
•Benefits & Amenities: streets, bicycle facilities, parking, open space, beautification, transit,arts / cultural spaces, lot consolidation; developer can install amenities or pay into public improvement fund; value based on a portion of residual land value (~75%)
•Incentives: Increase density, heights, FAR, dwelling units per acre
Buellton Avenue of Flags El Monte Downtown Main St.
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REAL ESTATE STRATEGIES
PRIVATELY-OWNED PROPERTY
Cities can pro-actively reach out to select private property owners to facilitate real estate developments to advance
the City’s economic development goals.
Property Owner Outreach –collaborate with property owners to understand their plans for properties,
challenges that they face with development, and opportunities that may align with economic development goals.
Rehabilitation / Renovation –encourage rehabilitation and/or renovation of facilities, signage or store-front
facades; can include public programs such as façade improvement loans / grants, or assisting with identifying other
sources of funding.
Marketing –Conduct marketing activities, such as developer or building outreach, in coordination with
property owner.
Public-Private Partnerships (P3) –Enter into formal partnerships with property-owners that commit city
resources to fund improvements that will advance both the property owner’s goals for development and the
City’s goals for economic development.
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PRIVATELY-OWNED OPPORTUNITY SITE
280 SMITH RANCH ROAD
Owner Nationwide Theatres Corp
APN(s)155-121-09
Acreage 8.95
Current Use Century Regency Movie Theater
Assessed
Value (2022)$8,000,000
As a result of COVID impact to entertainment uses, many movie
theaters are challenged. The site currently generates a relatively
small amount of property and sales taxes. If redeveloped into a
blended-use project with multifamily residential and retail
components, it could generate substantially more tax revenue.
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PRIVATELY-OWNED OPPORTUNITY SITE
MARIN SQUARE
Located at the junction of I-580 and US-101, this site may be
suited for higher value uses. Residential uses may be
problematic due to highway noise and pollution.
1
2
3
4
5
#Owner APN(s)AC Use
1 Chelsea Pacific
Investments LP
018-051-17, 20
018-063-04, 07, 08, 09,
10
10.58
Marin Square shopping
center, office, service
industrial, showroom
2 State of
California 018-051-12, 16 0.78 Industrial yard
3
Blue Oak
Development
LLC
018-051-13 0.53 Service industrial
4 Woodside
Holdings LP 018-051-01 0.21 Service industrial
5 City of San
Rafael 018-063-11 0.09 Landscaping
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GOVERNMENT FUNDING AND FINANCING STRATEGIES
The following financing mechanisms can be utilized to generate enhanced revenues to fill financial gaps of projects,in
order to encourage private investment and other tax-generating development.
Lease Revenue Bonds
Lease Revenue Bonds are issued by a public entity (e .g.,Joint Powers Authority)and can be used to finance vital capital improvements
to be leased to a public agency.The bonds are payable solely from lease payments paid by a public agency.
Lease-leaseback (P3)Structures
Lease-leaseback structures give cities the opportunity to cut costs and deliver public projects through strategic public-private
partnership (P3)project delivery.The lease and subsequent sublease of assets between two public agencies enables lease payments to
be leveraged (borrowed).These strategies can also come with procurement and project timing advantages.For example,an existing
building facility can utilize lease payments immediately without the need to fund capitalized interest.
Cash-Flow Management Programs
Improved cash flow management can generate enhanced revenues from cash resources.Customized cash flow modelling can maximize
portfolio size and increase funds that are available to the City.These enhanced short-term returns can then be utilized for community
revitalization projects.
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GRANTS AND OTHER PUBLIC FUNDING
There is a wide variety of grant programs and funding sources available through the state
and federal government.New grant programs are added every year,many with a focus
on housing and climate resiliency.Cities should periodically review available grant
sources and pursue grants that align with the city’s economic development goals (a
grant-writing firm can provide assistance if the City’s internal resources are limited).
Three current programs that give some preference to EIFDs are:
Infill Infrastructure Grants (IIG)
Grants for infill projects /areas,gap funding for infrastructure for residential /mixed-use
with some affordability requirements;awards range between $1 -$7.5 million
Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities Program (AHSC)
Grants for affordable housing,housing infrastructure,transportation,related amenities,
and program costs;awards range between $1 -$30 million
Transformative Climate Communities (TCC)
Funds community-led development and infrastructure projects that achieve
environmental /health /economic benefits in the state’s most disadvantaged
communities.
Recent Economic Development &
Climate Grant / Funding Programs
•Regional Early Action Planning (REAP)
•Local Early Action Planning (LEAP)
•Infill Infrastructure Grants (IIG)
•Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities
(AHSC)
•Community Economic Resilience Fund (CERF)
•Multifamily Housing Program (MHP)
•ICARP Regional Resilience Grant Program (RRGP)
•Infrastructure State Revolving Fund (ISRF)
•Homeless Housing, Assistance, and Prevention
(HHAP)
•Infrastructure State Revolving Fund (ISRF)
•Coastal Conservancy Grants
•Adaptation Planning Grant Program (APGP)
•Strategic Growth Council grants
•Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA)
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GRANTS AND OTHER PUBLIC FUNDING
Funding Source /
Grant Purpose
Infill Infrastructure
Grant (IIG) Program
(EIFD Preference)
-IIG provides grants for capital improvement projects for qualifying infill projects or qualifying infill areas-Used for gap funding to infrastructure improvements for residential or mixed-use developments-Eligible activities: construction, rehab, demolition, relocation, preservation, and acquisition of infrastructure-Affordability threshold: No less than 15% of units as “affordable” units-Assistance terms: Minimum award ($1M), maximum award ($7.5M)
Affordable Housing and
Sustainable
Communities (AHSC)
Program
(EIFD Preference)
-The AHSC Program assists project areas by providing grants and/or loans to a locality, public housing authority, JPA, developer, or facilities districts, that will achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and benefit Disadvantaged communities through increasing accessibi lity of affordable housing, employment centers, and key destinations via low-carbon transportation-Assistance terms: Minimum award ($1M), maximum award ($30M)-Eligible activities: new construction, acquisition, or rehab of affordable housing; housing infrastructure; sustainable transportation infrastructure and related amenities, program costs (active transportation)-Affordability threshold: 20% of homes at 80% median household income (MHI)
Multifamily Housing
Program (MHP)
-MHP assist the new construction, rehab, and preservation of permanent and transitional rental housing for lower income households, or the conversion of a non-residential structure to rental housing-Eligible activities: property acquisition, land lease payments, construction and rehabilitation work, offsite improvements (e .g.sewer, utilities, and streets directly related to housing development)-Assistance terms: Maximum award ($20M), base loan various from $150K and $175K based on type of unit
Transit-Oriented
Development (TOD)
Housing Program
-Program offers low-interest loans as gap financing for rental housing developments near transit that include affordable units. Grants a re available to localities and transit agencies for infrastructure improvements necessary for the development of specified housing projects o r to facilitate connections between the project and the transit station-Eligible applicants: developers for rental housing projects; municipalities/transit agencies for infrastructure projects-Assistance terms: Maximum award for a single project is $15M
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4. ECONOMIC / LAND USE TRENDS & CASE STUDIES
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
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Housing is Not a
Loss Leader, it’s a
Growth Driver
Retail is Not Just
Retail Anymore
Telework is
Reconfiguring Office
Industrial /
Distribution is
Critical for Your
Economy
Housing Creation as
Economic Development
Retail Reimagination as
Economic Development
Office Conversions as
Economic Development
Industrial & Fulfillment as
Economic Development
•New housing can generate
significant new tax revenues and
support local jobs
•Housing is not necessarily a net
negative fiscal impact, especially
at current property values
•U.S. retail over-built and needs
“right sizing;” Covid accelerated
trends; today its about essentials,
experience & e-commerce
•Blended/mixed use projects
integrate multiple uses (housing,
retail, open space, creative office,
hotel)
•Telework and work from home
options are reshaping the needs
for office space and business
districts
•Job redistribution tied to housing
•Vacancies can lead to fiscal
impact pressure
•Modern industrial is not “your
father’s industrial” –not
smokestacks
•Retail can’t thrive without
distribution
•Booming demand for
distribution, e-commerce, and
data centers, blending for
fulfillment/delivery, job creators
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ECONOMIC AND LAND USE TRENDS
➢Retail
•Retail store closures, bankruptcies, and e-
commerce has changed economics of retail
centers. Many are being reimagined (e.g,
blended use)
•Retail is driven by trip-generators such as
entertainment, experience, and essentials
➢Office
•Downtown S.F. office building vacancy rising as
remote work becomes new normal; Social
distancing leads to offices resizing/reconfiguring
•Corporations see possible shift to suburban
offices -integrating office in blended use
environments
➢Industrial
•E-commerce growth has exploded
•Retail and industrial are merging, with space
being used for Buy Online Pick Up in Store
(BOPIS), fulfillment, last mile and warehousing
➢Residential
•Homes are live, play, and work environments
•Strength in suburban markets; home office is
the new amenity,apartment developments are
being designed to facilitate work
•New residential sites in shopping centers
➢Hospitality
•Hospitality sector hurt the most by Covid-19,
but leisure travel is rebounding
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TELEWORK GROWTH
Telework is changing where people choose to live,and increases
popularity of “15-minute communities”that offer amenities and
quality of life.
Census Bureau estimated that ~44% of workers are in jobs where
working from home is currently feasible, with only a quarter of
those in feasible telework jobs actually utilizing this capability.
Research shows the ability to telework likely varies by
educational attainment and income-level; many of the telework
occupations are Management / Business / Financial / Professional
occupations. Opportunity for San Rafael new residential units.
Other research shows that work-from-home represent ~30% of
days, significantly above pre-pandemic estimates of 5%.
Employers are expecting an average of 2.3 work-from-home days
per week, suggesting that hybrid home/office model is likely to be
well-utilized post-Covid.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; St. Louis Federal Reserve; Survey of
Working Arrangements
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Percent Paid Full Days WFHEmployer Plans for Post-Covid WFH DaysWork-from-Home: Current Utilization and
Employer Plans for post-Covid
Employer Plans for Post-COVID WFH Days
Percentage of Days WFH
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
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E-COMMERCE GROWTH
E-commerce sales in the U.S.have increased steadily,
jumping by 30%to $800 billion annually by Q2 2020
due to increased utilization during the Covid-19
pandemic.This put additional pressure on local brick-
and-mortar retailers.Post pandemic retail mall
shopping has recovered somewhat.
According to UBS,e-commerce’s share of overall U.S.
retail sales will continue to increase over the next 5
years,resulting in a loss of brick-and-mortar sales,
primarily in clothing,office supply and sporting goods.
Consumer online shopping behavior has further
solidified during the Covid-19 pandemic,and is not
likely to revert to old patterns,thanks to free 1-day
delivery services,etc .
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; St. Louis Federal Reserve; UBS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020E-Commerce Share of Total Retail Sales (Percent) E-Commerce Retail Sales (Billions of Dollars)E-Commerce Retail Sales
E-Commerce Sales
E-Commerce: Share of Total Retail Sales
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RETAIL TRENDS
Shopping centers across the U.S.are faced with dramatic decline in retail sales as the digital economy
converts the lifestyles and social patterns of every generation.Today’s consumers use online websites for
purchasing many hard and soft good commodities.
Several hundred regional malls have closed in past 5-10 years.By 2025,experts expect only Class-A malls
in high income communities are most likely to survive .
The impacts from e-commerce will have major impacts on large shopping centers in the region,
particularly power centers.San Rafael is in relatively good position as community retail centers with the
strongest opportunity for future growth are those focused on essentials and experiences.
Shopping districts that are centered around experiences, entertainment, and essentials are best poised for economic resiliency and future success.
The future for retail centers in San Rafael lies in fostering experiential,entertainment uses andrestaurants.Blended use projects that bring additional uses to retail sites (such as hospitality,last-milelogistics,and multifamily residential)can bring more customers to the stores and thus be a moresustainableanddiversifieddevelopmentthatservesthecommunity.
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WHAT DRIVES AN ENGAGING RETAIL EXPERIENCE?
Thoughtful
Design
Programmed
Outdoor Space
Communal
Elements
Unique
Amenities
Unique Food
Offerings
Curated Retail
Tenants
•Feels like an
exciting
destination
•Celebrates local
character
•Fosters a
specific
vibe/feeling
•Feels fresh and
innovative
•Fun and
welcoming
environment to
gather and hang
•Fresh air
elevates dining
and shopping
experience
•Mood lighting
and aesthetics
lifts the
ambiance
•Shared
community
experiences
•Encourage
conversation
and connection
•Examples:
breweries,
distilleries,
coffee / tea
•Unexpected
entertainment
attracts and
retains
customers
•Memorable and
engaging
•Examples –
arcade games,
photo booths,
lawn games, art
installations
•Interesting and
culturally rich
food options
•Reflects local
flavor, authentic,
interesting
fusion
•Exciting to try,
drives additional
visits
•Tenants and
pop-ups create a
reason to come
•Digital brands
with brick-and-
mortar spaces
•Curated
products that
create a
desirable
shopping
experience
•Local / exclusive
products
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Communal Outdoor Spaces
Curated Retail & Food
Upscale Design Elements
ENGAGING RETAIL
EXAMPLES
Curated Food Outdoor Amenities
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EXPERIENTIAL ENTERTAINMENT RETAIL CONCEPTS
Experiential retail / entertainment concepts have been merging food, drinks,
and entertainment into engaging experiences. This includes:
Movie Theater concepts such as Alamo Drafthouse that deliver an improved theater
experience with better seating / design and elevated food / beverage.
Bowling concepts such as Bowlmor and Lucky Strike, which provide a more upscale
experience in a lounge setting
Smaller format sports / activities concepts such as Puttshack, Spin Ping Pong, rock
climbing gyms, ax throwing, escape rooms, laser tag, and trampoline parks.
Larger format sporting / activities, including Topgolf and SFC sports facilities
Personalized retail services, such as clothing and accessories stores that offer in-store
services and customization
Interactive exhibits, including art galleries, installations, and other cultural offerings
Gaming concepts such as arcade bars, pinball, virtual reality gaming, and e-sports
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Village Center / Rodeo 39 is an example of an experiential retail / housing blended
use project that serves as an entertaining destination and hub for the community. It
also demonstrates how adding residential can generate demand for retail on the
site and add value to a project.
The Village Center shopping plaza in Stanton was a blighted 24-acre shopping site
that had significant vacancy issues. The site’s retail component was rightsized down
to 10-acres of the site, with a “town square” environment anchored by the Rodeo
39 curated public market. A new multifamily housing project was built on the
remainder of the site.
Food and entertainment –particularly curated local offerings –was the foundation
of the public market, a new 41,000 SF retail and dining space. Rodeo 39 has been a
great success, with the local community embracing the eclectic destination.
The project also added a variety of entertaining and experiential offerings that
encourage people to spend more time –a wide variety of cultural dining, small
stage for live music performances, retro arcade / games, boutique tattoo artists,
pop-up shops, and a variety of indoor and outdoor seating and gathering areas.
EXPERIENTIAL RETAIL CASE STUDY
VILLAGE CENTER / RODEO 39
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FOSTERING ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Small business start-ups,and other entrepreneurial enterprises are an important component of a healthy local economy.These
enterprises can drive job retention and creation,innovation,vibrancy,and diversity.The City of San Rafael can foster a strong
entrepreneurial environment through targeted programs and a supportive regulatory environment.As a gateway community between
the Bay Area and wine country,the City can attract talent from across the region and build upon its existing economic clusters.
Talent
Investment in human capital builds and retains a talented workforce. Supporting educational and training
programs, as well as linking academic networks with local businesses, can help build a strong and innovative
workforce.
Density
Dense communities can foster innovation through greater opportunities for collaboration and larger local
customer base. Supporting cluster growth, creating hubs of activity, driving media awareness, and building
mentorship networks are components of dense startup hubs.
Culture Innovation clusters require a culture of innovation, support, learning, and entrepreneurship; this can be fostered
through partnerships that teach entrepreneurial skills and link businesses with employees.
Capital
Startup success requires experienced investors to provide funding, networking, and expertise. This can be aided
through programs geared toward linking startups with capital and other resources to grow businesses, as well
as tax incentives for investors.
Regulatory
Environment
Governments should help create a stable, predictable, and supportive regulatory environment to foster
innovation and entrepreneurship.
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FOSTERING ENTREPRENEURSHIP
CASE STUDIES
City of Thousand Oaks –Ventura County
The City of Thousand Oaks partners with a variety of groups and institutions to encourage entrepreneurship in their community :
•California Lutheran University –private university home to over 4,000 students that is primarily a liberal arts school with a variety of majors /
programs, including biology, chemistry, biochemistry, computer information, computer science and environmental sciences. CLU has a strong record
of encouraging business development from its students and graduates, offers a minor in entrepreneurship, and hosts other prog rams (such as events,
incubator grants, and mentorship opportunities).
•805 Startups –works with a number of Southern California cities to educate and connect startups to traditional businesses through a variety of
programs / services, including events, business development, marketing, skill development, and talent recruitment / retention .
•Ventura BioCenter –community of scientists / engineers / educators / business professionals to encourage scientific research and business
development. Biotech business incubator includes spaces and equipment available for some members.
•Hub101 –Coworking space, incubator, and community dedicated to supporting entrepreneurs via coworking, educational programs, mentorship,
and events.
City of Corona –Riverside County
City of Corona partnered with TriTech Small Business Development Center and Tech Coast Angels to hold a “Shark Tank”-style event where
entrepreneurs pitched ideas to a panel of investors. The event was part of a larger City program that aimed to facilitate sta rt-up businesses to capture
more jobs within the city.
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PROMOTING BIOTECH AND LIFE SCIENCES
The San Francisco / San Jose area is home to a strong biotech and life sciences cluster,
but limited availability of specialized lab / flex R&D / manufacturing spaces can delay
business expansions and push firms to move to other areas.
Fostering new developments in these science / tech sectors –from startups to major
firms –can be a key economic development strategy to creating good local jobs. Life
science firms look for cities with amenities, quality of life, and available housing for
workers.
Biocom is an industry group that advocates for life science in California through
advocacy, programs, and events. As noted in Biocom’s economic impact reports, the
Bay Area’s life sciences industry includes a range of sub-sectors, including Bio-
pharmaceutical, Bio-technology, Research & Manufacturing, Medical Devices /
Equipment, Scientific / Research Tools, and Food / AG Biotechnology. The life science
industry represents a workforce of over 146,000, with ~3,100 workers in Marin
County. Research and development is a strong growth area, adding almost 4,000 new
jobs in 2021. Average pay is over $148,000.
San Rafael may be well-positioned to provide less expensive space to develop into
campuses that serve some of these biotech sub-sectors.
Biocom California: Bay Area Priorities
Access to Water and Utilities
Access to water and other utilities is necessary for biotech firms’
research processes; mandatory water cutbacks can be challenging
Housing
The extreme housing shortage in the Bay Area is a challenge to
accommodate the biotech industry’s diverse workforce
Taxes & Administration
Local taxes and fees can have detrimental impacts on
development and firm expansion. Consistent permitting and
inspection processes needed.
Infrastructure
Preserving industrial land for R&D, manufacturing, and distribution
is needed for long-term stability / growth. Transportation is
critical for employee commutes, workforce attraction, and
transport of goods / products.
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PROMOTING BIOTECHNOLOGY & LIFE SCIENCES
CASE STUDY
Case Study: La Jolla / City of San Diego
The La Jolla area of San Diego was home to a
major biotech company in the 1970s
(Hybritech). After it was acquired by E.J. Lily,
many of the scientists did not want to be part of
a large corporate pharmaceutical company. The
City and other local non-profits/agencies worked
together to achieve this vision.
Today, San Diego’s biotech industry is
responsible for nearly $9 billion in annual
economic impact and employs over 44,000
people across 700 companies.
The following are approaches the City of San Diego and University of San Diego used to aid
the growth of the biotech industry in the City:
•City involved in making land use decisions incentivizing industrial development on City-
owned land
•City allowed for natural industry growth by taking a “hands-off” approach regarding
industry controls
•City worked collaboratively with biotech businesses in the area to address water
shortages
•City created an ombudsman position to interact with local biotech companies for fast
track permitting/processing, the development of long term relationships, and
City/industry collaboration to make quick informed decisions in times of need
•City staff supported industry growth by speaking at events and taking part in visits to
Washington D.C. and elsewhere to advocate for their local biotech research
community
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SMALL BUSINESS SUPPORT
Category Description
Small Business Liaison /
Ombudsman
Designate a city liaison / ombudsman to provide assistance regarding city processes / regulations /
policies, such as permitting, license, compliance, and development standards.
Access to Capital Connect firms with capital through loan programs, grants, and other financing opportunities for
businesses to start / grow / expand.
Business Incubators /
Accelerators
Support business incubator / accelerator programs to provide early -stage companies with resources,
workspace, mentorship, and networking.
Networking / Joint
Marketing
Host / support networking events, workshops, and other opportunities that connect small businesses
/ entrepreneurs with other firms, potential customers / clients, investors, and workers.
Technical / Business
Assistance
Seek mentors with business expertise, including business planning, financial management, legal
services, market research, e-commerce strategies, etc.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 69
WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT
Workforce development programs aim to improve and diversify a City’s workforce. They address the needs of
workers to be better prepared for higher-paying jobs; these programs also help local employers attract and retain
they talent needed for their businesses to be successful. These programs often focus on four key themes:
Collaboration –Fostering relationships between current / potential employers, educational institutions, and
local nonprofits to identify and address worker skill gaps.
Training –Connecting workers to programs to build skills that improve workforce readiness (certification
programs, licensure, English as a Second Language, etc.).
Networking –Connecting employers, educational / training institutions, and workers via networking programs,
mentorship programs, internships / apprenticeships.
Addressing Barriers –Encouraging programs that will alleviate pressures on workforce readiness, such as
childcare, transit, and internet / computer accessibility.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 70
PLACEMAKING THROUGH DISTRICTS AND EVENTS
Programming downtown areas via the
use of micro-districts can encourage
nodes / clusters of focused business
activity –such as areas focused on arts /
entertainment, hospitality, office, health /
wellness, and dining / restaurants.
While downtown areas should still aim
to integrate many different uses in
mixed-use districts, micro-districts that
place some emphasis on particular
themes can allow business clusters to
thrive and improve the overall
downtown experience.
Entertainment / Arts Districts: Focused on cultural and recreational
amenities, such as theaters, music venues, art galleries, and experiential activities.
These districts can attract residents and tourists and create a vibrant and lively
urban environment. Districts can focus on supporting the development of new
facilities / venues / restaurants to revitalize the area and attract new visitors.
Hospitality Districts: Focused on hotels, conference centers, recreation, and
other tourism-related amenities. These districts can help attract tourists and
boost the local economy by focusing on new hotel development and visitor-
serving amenities.
Technology Districts: Focused on office space to support new employers and
high-paying jobs, attracting workers and visitors into the area and driving
economic growth. These districts aim to provide the spaces, technology
infrastructure, and amenities needed to attract tech industry investment and
workers to the area.
Restaurant Districts: Focused on restaurants, bars, cafes, and food-related
amenities as well as entertainment. These districts can create a vibrant and lively
urban environment that is desirable to residents, workers, visitors, and tourists.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 71
PLACEMAKING THROUGH DESIGN, DISTRICTS & EVENTS
The MedicalMainStreetdistrictinLancaster,CAaimstobeablendeduseareacenteredaroundmajormedicalanchorsthatincludesmanycomplementaryuses.
Murals in downtownProvidence,RI addcharacterandhighlightlocalartistsandthemes.
Events like the CicLAvia bike /walk fairs inLosAngelesandtheMissionInnFestivalofLightsinRiverside,CA are memorable andengagingactivationsofpublicspaces.
Distinctive signs –
such as the neon
signs in Fillmore andtheStarTheatreinOceanside–can giveanareaadistinctivesenseofplace.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 72
REACTIVATING UNDERUTILIZED PARKING &
CATALYST SITES
Cities and property owners are exploring new uses and
programming that reactivates underutilized parking space,
parking lots, and parking structures:
•Temporary reuses for special events such as outdoor
movie screenings, block parties, farmers markets, and
craft fairs
•Short-term reuses such as parklets that allow for
extra outdoor seating for dining, music performance
spaces, gardens, waiting areas, or retail display tables
•Semi-permanent reuses such as converting parking
garage roofs into “people decks” that provide spaces for
people to gather / relax / socialize, and façade / space-
planning revisions that reactivate the sides of structures /
lots that face the street (enlivening the pedestrian
experience in the area with micro-retail, art, and activity)
Some parking structures set up
temporary movie screenings on their
roofdecks –converting underutilized
parking into fun events with chairs,
lights,turf,&restaurant partners.
One proposal for a city-ownedparkingstructureindowntownSan
Jose aimed to convert the roof into
a “people deck”community space.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 73
WALK DISTANCE COMPARISON
NORTHGATE MALL VS. DOWNTOWN SAN RAFAEL
Walking distances from the downtown parking
structures to the main business district along
4th Street are comparable to the walk to the
middle of the Northgate Mall from an average
parking spot.
The map below shows a walking route (red)
from a parking space to a point in the center of
the Northgate Mall (~700 ft). The map at right
shows the ~700 ft walking distance areas (blue)
around the three primary downtown parking
structures.
Note: Maps not to scale
The 5-minute
walking distance
boundary from each
of the garages covers
an even larger area
of the downtown –
suggesting that much
of the downtown
area is well-served by
these facilities.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 74
PEDESTRIAN MALLS
IN DOWNTOWN
DISTRICTS
Pedestrian malls and significant public spaces
help activate downtown districts through
vibrant, engaging activity, given proper
circumstances, location, design, and
implementation.
Even before Covid-19 pandemic, increasing the
amount of public space dedicated to pedestrians
became particularly popular, with many cities
allowing parking spaces, sidewalks, and roadways
to be used for commercial and pedestrian
activity.
Many cities have found these changes have
contributed to more vibrant and enjoyable
commercial districts and have found ways to
make some of these changes permanent.
Successful Pedestrian Mall Indicators
Population Most successful pedestrian malls are in areas with populations less than 100,000.
Short Length Most successful pedestrian malls are 1-4 blocks long; most tend to have small block sizes, with
lots of corners and cross streets to bring cars and activity.
Minimally
Disruptive
Do not impact high levels of vehicular traffic; many mid-century pedestrian malls closed city’s
main vehicular arteries, and surrounding streets were not able to handle the additional volume.
Anchors Usually need nearby anchor institutions to drive foot traffic throughout the day, such as
universities (Boulder, Iowa City, Burlington, Charlottesville), transit hubs (Denver, Salem), or
office/financial core (Denver, Boston).
Variety of
Uses and
Services
Successful malls need a vibrant mix of active uses: retail, residential, & commercial; late-night
services (bars & restaurants, movie theater) to attract crowds all day; convenience-related
businesses, unique shopping experiences, entertainment attractions, programming/public
events; balance of chains & independents, retail & restaurants, indoor & outdoor.
Amenities Attractive landscaping (gardens, fountains, monuments), public art, public tables / chairs, stages,
artists, and vendors.
Programming Festivals, concerts, sports, food trucks, performers drive vibrancy and create a sense of place
and destination.
Accessibility,
Walkability,
and Visibility
Centralized parking allows convenient access to visitors; successful malls need to be easily
reachable and accessible, with numerous entrances, cross-streets, nearby parking, public transit.
They should also incorporate walkable neighborhood structures, amenities, and visible interest.
Visibility of the pedestrian area should not be overly blocked by buildings or landscaping.
Management Coordinated activities to ensure area management / maintenance; dedicated agency/business
improvement district to oversee maintenance, security, planning, programming, retail mix, etc.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 75
Best Practices –Creating Pedestrian Malls
Step 1 Car
Dependency
Ensure that there are nearby parking alternatives with
proper wayfinding. Reliance on cars can be hard to assess
without testing the concept temporarily.
Step 2 Pedestrian Mall
Concept Testing
Start by closing streets for a few days (a holiday; a regular
weekend day; a whole weekend, etc), treating each as a
test. Stay flexible to see which arrangements work best.
Step 3 Temporary
Closure
When confident to make the car ban permanent, first
use temporary materials: epoxy gravel, potted plants,
small trees, movable tables and chairs.
Step 4 Adding
Permanence
if it works well, shift to better pavement and permanent
plants / trees / fixtures. Focus on programming rather
than design; let it evolve over time. Partner with key
institutions, strategically locate equipment needed for
targeted activities. Resist adding immovable barriers to
cars.
Pedestrian Malls require the right locational
circumstances, design, business selection, and
other considerations. Success “depends more
on location and access than materials and
beauty.” Full street closure takes time to assess
current conditions, clarify goals, test concepts,
and build community support. Partial closures
and events are a good way to test concepts.
Cities can also explore other interventions in a
similar spirit –such as parklets, expanded
outdoor dining on sidewalks / patios / parking
areas, slower traffic speeds and infrastructure
that prioritizes pedestrians, and public
gathering spaces.
Source: Walkable City Rules, Jeff Speck
PEDESTRIAN MALLS IN DOWNTOWN DISTRICTS
IMPLEMENTATION
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 76
PEDESTRIAN MALLS AND DOWNTOWN DISTRICTS
CASE STUDIES
The Pearl Street Mall is a four-block pedestrian mall in
downtown Boulder, Colorado, and is one of the country’s
most successful pedestrian malls.
▪Amenities include public art, fountains, gardens,
sculptures, sandbox, street performers, musicians
▪Business Mix includes restaurants, cafes, personal
services, local independent retailers, national brands
▪Destination for restaurants, independent businesses,
tourists, festivals, entertainment
▪Anchors nearby include the University of Colorado,
Boulder; Boulder County Courthouse; Boulder Theatre;
Boulder Museum of Contemporary Art
▪Core Clientele includes Leisured Middle (out-of-state
tourists, suburban day-trippers and CU Boulder parents),
Yupsters (artsy and progressive Baby Boomers), and
Students
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 77
DISCLAIMER
The analyses,projections,assumptions,rates of return,and any examples presented herein are
for illustrative purposes and are not a guarantee of actual and/or future results.Project pro
forma and tax analyses are projections only.Actual results may differ from those expressed in
this analysis,as results are difficult to predict as a function of market conditions,natural
disasters,pandemics,significant economic impacts,legislation and administrative actions.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
El Segundo, CA
TEL: 424-297-1070 | URL: www.kosmont.com
CITY OF SAN RAFAEL
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
May 15, 2023
El Segundo, CA
TEL: 424-297-1070 | URL: www.kosmont.com
CITY OF SAN RAFAEL
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
BUSINESS & COMMUNITY SURVEY RESULTS APPENDIX
January 2023
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 2
BUSINESS SURVEY
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 3
BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS
OVERVIEW
The online survey conducted in December 2022 provided feedback from businesses to help
plan for San Rafael’s future .228 surveys were submitted;~29%were from members of the
San Rafael Chamber of Commerce,and ~15%of responses were from members of the San
Rafael Downtown Business Improvement District.
Results show that the top challenges facing businesses in San Rafael includes High Rent / City
Fees, Retaining / Hiring Employees, Safety / Cleanliness.
The top City priorities identified in the survey include Homelessness, Cleanliness /
Appearance / Illegal Dumping, Improving Public Safety, Housing, and Sustainability / Climate
Change.
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 4
BUSINESS SURVEY
RESPONSE COMPOSITION
Business
Location
Count of
Respondents
% of
Respondents
Downtown 95 42%
Terra Linda / North San
Rafael 61 27%
East San Rafael 18 8%
Montecito, Loch
Lomond, Peacock Gap
Neighborhood
14 6%
Canal Neighborhood 6 3%
West Francisco Blvd 5 2%
Woodland / Bret Harte 9 4%
Other / blank 20 9%
Total 228 100%
Business Type Count of
Respondents
% of
Respondents
Professional / Technical /
Scientific Services 55 24%
Retail 28 12%
Personal Services 26 11%
Healthcare / Social Assiis 24 11%
Real Estate / Rental 23 10%
Accommodation and
Food Service 13 6%
Art, Entertainment, and
Recreation 13 6%
Construction-related 10 4%
Finance and Insurance 9 4%
Wholesale 8 4%
Automotive / Transport 6 3%
Manufacturing 6 3%
Education Services 5 2%
Total 228 100%
Business Size Count of
Respondents
% of
Respondents
Sole Proprietor 83 36%
More than 1 and less
than 9 employees 86 38%
10-24 employees 31 14%
25-99 employees 11 5%
More than 100
employees 11 5%
Other 6 3%
Total 228 100%
Membership
(not mutually exclusive)
Count of
Respondents
% of
Respondents
Downtown Business
Improvement District 33 15%
San Rafael Chamber
of Commerce 65 29%
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 5
SURVEY RESULTS
BUSINESS
CHALLENGES
Survey responses show that many firms
cite Rent /City Fees,Retaining /Hiring
Employees,Safety /Cleanliness as high-
ranking challenges to their businesses.
Wgt.
Avg.
5.80
5.66
5.51
5.23
4.31
4.29
3.52
3.02
25%
37%
22%
13%
8%
13%
5%
2%
18%
15%
19%
17%
12%
13%
6%
8%
18%
8%
13%
23%
12%
10%
10%
5%
14%
7%
17%
14%
12%
10%
9%
8%
11%
11%
10%
10%
16%
10%
13%
10%
6%
6%
7%
9%
17%
15%
19%
12%
5%
5%
4%
8%
14%
12%
14%
28%
3%
11%
7%
5%
9%
17%
23%
27%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Rent / city fees
Retaining / hiring employees
Safety / cleanliness
Cost of goods / inventory
Parking
Foot traffic / customer count
Internet sales competition
Competition with shopping districts in
other cities
What challenges do you face doing business in San Rafael?
8 (Greatest Challenge)7 6 5 4 3 2 1 (Least Challenge)
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 6
Business challenges results varied by the
location of firms,employee count,and
industry.The tables at the right
summarize the challenges facing these
different firm types
Downtown Firms
Greatest challenges …Lowest challenges…
•Safety / cleanliness
•Rent / city fees
•Retaining / hiring employees
•Competition with other shopping districts
•Internet sales competitio
•Cost of goods / inventory
Terra Linda / North San Rafael Firms
Greatest challenges …Lowest challenges…
•Retaining / hiring employees
•Rent / city fees
•Cost of goods / inventory
•Parking
•Competition with other shopping districts
•Foot traffic / customer count
East SR / Canal / West Francisco Blvd Firms
Greatest challenges …Lowest challenges…
•Cost of goods / inventory
•Rent / city fees
•Retaining / hiring employees
•Competition with other shopping districts
•Parking
•Internet sales competition
Firms with Less Than 10 Employees
Greatest challenges …Lowest challenges…
•Safety / cleanliness
•Rent / city fees
•Cost of goods / inventory
•Competition with other shopping districts
•Internet sales competition
•Foot traffic / customer count
Retail / Accommodation / Food Service Firms
Greatest challenges …Lowest challenges…
•Foot traffic / customer count
•Retaining / hiring employees
•Cost of goods / inventory
•Competition with other shopping districts
•Internet sales competition
•Parking
SURVEY RESULTS
BUSINESS
CHALLENGES
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 7
SURVEY RESULTS
CITY PRIORITIES
Survey responses show that many firms
chose Homelessness,Cleanliness /
Appearance /Illegal Dumping,Improving
Public Safety,Housing,and Sustainability /
Climate Change as the top priorities that
the City should focus its financial
resources.
Wgt.
Avg.
3.49
3.36
3.15
3.10
2.75
2.67
2.64
2.60
2.59
2.48
2.33
65%
52%
43%
45%
32%
21%
22%
20%
23%
22%
14%
23%
33%
31%
29%
33%
36%
36%
36%
29%
30%
26%
9%
12%
22%
16%
15%
34%
25%
27%
32%
24%
39%
4%
2%
3%
10%
21%
10%
16%
17%
16%
25%
21%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Homelessness
Cleanliness / appearance / illegal dumping
Improve public safety
Housing
Sustainability (climate change)
Streetscape, design, lighting
Economic recovery grants, mini loans
More public art, plazas, parks and walkways
Parking
Racial equity / support BIPOC-owned businesses
Mobility / signage, wayfinding bike-ability
What level of priority do you think the City should focus its
financial resources in each of the following categories?
4(Highest Priority)3 (High Priority)2(Low Priority)1 (Lowest Priority)
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 8
City priorities results varied by the
location of firms,employee count,and
industry.The tables at the right
summarize the challenges facing these
different firm types
Downtown Firms
Highest priority…Lowest priority…
•Homelessness
•Cleanliness / appearance / illegal dumping
•Improve public safety
•Mobility / signage, wayfinding bike-ability
•Racial equity / support BIPOC-owned businesses
•Sustainability / Climate Change
Terra Linda / North San Rafael Firms
Highest priority…Lowest priority…
•Homelessness
•Cleanliness / appearance / illegal dumping
•Improve public safety
•Parking
•Mobility / signage, wayfinding bike-ability
•Racial equity / support BIPOC-owned businesses
East SR / Canal / West Francisco Blvd Firms
Highest priority…Lowest priority…
•Cleanliness / appearance / illegal dumping
•Homelessness
•Improve public safety
•Mobility / signage, wayfinding bike-ability
•Racial equity / support BIPOC-owned businesses
•More public art, plazas, parks and walkways
Firms with Less Than 10 Employees
Highest priority…Lowest priority…
•Homelessness
•Cleanliness / appearance / illegal dumping
•Improve public safety
•Mobility / signage, wayfinding bike-ability
•Racial equity / support BIPOC-owned businesses
•Economic recovery grants, mini loans
Retail / Accommodation / Food Service Firms
Highest priority…Lowest priority…
•Homelessness
•Cleanliness / appearance / illegal dumping
•Improve public safety
•Mobility / signage, wayfinding bike-ability
•Sustainability / Climate Change
•Racial equity / support BIPOC-owned businesses
SURVEY RESULTS
CITY PRIORITIES
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 9
Businesses were asked to what extend
they would support the following ideas to
fund BID operations,and provide other
resources to the business community:
•Increase transient occupancy taxes on
overnight hotel stays (current rate is
12%)–supported by 52%of survey
respondents
•Increase parking fees (street meters
and parking structure)–supported by
25%of survey respondents
Support for these funding ideas varied by
business organization membership,firm
location,and firm type as shown in
tables.
SURVEY RESULTS
FUNDING IDEAS
Increase Transient Occupancy Tax on
Overnight Hotel Stays
% Support
Among Group
Overall 52%
Membership
Chamber Members 60%
BID Members 61%
Firm Location
Downtown Businesses 54%
Terra Linda / North San Rafael
Businesses 51%
Canal / East SR / West Francisco
Blvd.59%
Firm Type
Retail / Accommodation / Food
Service 68%
Professional / Technical Scientific
Services / Finance and Insurance 52%
Personal Services 38%
Real Estate / Rental / Leasing 30%
Healthcare / Social Assistance 46%
Increase Parking Fees
% Support
Among Group
Overall 25%
Membership
Chamber Members 31%
BID Members 21%
Firm Location
Downtown Businesses 25%
Terra Linda / North San Rafael
Businesses 20%
Canal / East SR / West Francisco
Blvd.31%
Firm Type
Retail / Accommodation / Food
Service 22%
Professional / Technical Scientific
Services / Finance and Insurance 25%
Personal Services 15%
Real Estate / Rental / Leasing 26%
Healthcare / Social Assistance 29%
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 10
BUSINESS SURVEY FEEDBACK / RESPONSES
Some of the main themes that emerged in respondent free-response comments include:
•Improve downtown by making it more bike / pedestrian friendly; improve streetscape / beautification, particularly in
the Downtown and gateway areas near the freeway
•Encourage entrepreneurship and innovation; address workforce housing and economic challenges facing small
businesses; address economic challenges facing small businesses through programs and incentives
•Encourage community events, farmer markets and outdoor dining; Promote public art and entertainment
•Promote local businesses and encouraging community involvement; Increase foot traffic and retail options; Find ways
to encourage businesses to stay open and bring customers to the business areas
•Promote San Rafael as a destination, and developing reasons for people to visit and stay in San Rafael
•Reduce bureaucracy, speed up permitting processes, and improve the City’s fee / business regulation environment;
assist with construction impacts
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 11
COMMUNITY SURVEY
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 12
COMMUNITY SURVEY SUMMARY
An online survey was conducted in December 2022 provided feedback from residents to
help plan for San Rafael’s future .112 surveys were submitted,with around ~94%of
responses coming from San Rafael residents.60%live in Council District 2,53%of
respondents have lived in San Rafael for over 20 years,and 73%of respondents were at least
55 years old.
Results show that respondents highly value a wide variety of new developments in the
Downtown and North San Rafael areas,including Arts /Cultural /Educational options,
Shopping /Other Retail,Fine Dining,Family Restaurants,Gathering Places,and Multifamily
Housing.
Results also show support for City investment in civic improvements /amenities,with the
top-ranking choices including Cleanliness /Appearance,Traffic Flow,Safety,Mobility /
Walkability /Bike-ability /Transit,Public Art /Plazas /Walkways,and Streetscape /Design.
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 13
COMMUNITY SURVEY
RESPONSE COMPOSITION
Respondent
Type
Count of
Respondents
% of
Respondents
San Rafael resident 101 94%
Employee with a job in San Rafael 11 10%
Business owner in San Rafael 20 19%
Commercial property owner in San Rafael 2 2%
Investor or Developer 3 3%
Commuter to work outside of San Rafael 5 5%
Total (Unique Respondents)108 100%
Resident Tenure Count of
Respondents
% of
Respondents
0-4 years 8 8%
5-9 years 13 12%
10-14 years 18 17%
15-19 years 11 10%
20+ years 56 53%
Total 106 100%
Respondent Age Count of
Respondents
% of
Respondents
Under 18 0 0%
18-24 1 1%
25-34 4 4%
35-44 12 11%
45-54 12 11%
55-64 31 28%
65+50 45%
Total 110 100%
Resident
Council District
Count of
Respondents
% of
Respondents
Council District 1 (includes Canal, Francisco Blvd)4 4%
Council District 2 (includes most of Downtown, Gerstle
Park, West End, Fair Hills, Sun Valley)60 57%
Council District 3 (includes Dominican, Black Canyon,
Montecito, Happy Valley, Loch Lomond, Glenwood,
Peacock Gap, Civic Center)
15 14%
Council District 4 (includes Terra Linda, North San Rafael,
Smith Ranch, Mont Marin, San Rafael Park)26 25%
Total 105 100%
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 14
SURVEY RESULTS
WEEKLY SHOPPING
Survey responses show that ~81%of
respondents conduct their weekly
shopping “often”or “very often”in San
Rafael.The most popular weekly
shopping destinations other than San
Rafael include Novato and San Anselmo,
with a smaller portion of respondents
choosing Corte Madera or Larkspur.
Around 64%conduct their weekly
shopping via the internet either “often”
or “very often”.
Totals exceed 100%as many people list
more than one location
Wgt.
Avg.
3.41
2.06
2.01
1.89
1.54
2.90
2.22
67%
11%
11%
2%
2%
36%
19%
14%
13%
19%
16%
7%
28%
9%
14%
46%
32%
51%
33%
26%
47%
5%
30%
39%
31%
58%
10%
25%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
San Rafael
Novato
San Anselmo
Corte Madera
Larkspur
Internet
Other
Where do you conduct your weekly shopping?
4 (Very Often)3 (Often)2 (Sometimes)1 (Never)
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 15
SURVEY RESULTS
BUSINESS DISTRICTS
Survey responses show that ~63%of
respondents visit the Downtown Business
District “often”or “very often”.The
next most popular business districts in
San Rafael is Northgate Mall /
Surrounding Centers,with ~24%visiting
at least “often”.
Wgt.
Avg.
2.88
2.10
1.86
1.65
1.63
1.51
36%
10%
4%
7%
4%
4%
27%
14%
7%
11%
11%
4%
28%
53%
60%
23%
31%
32%
10%
23%
29%
59%
55%
60%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Downtown Area
Northgate Mall and Nearby Centers
Francisco Blvd Corridor
Las Gallinas
Shoreline Plaza
Canal District
How Often do you Visit Each of the Following
Business Districts in San Rafael
4 (Very Often)3 (Often)2 (Sometimes)1 (Never)
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 16
SURVEY RESULTS
BUSINESS DISTRICTS
VISIT PURPOSE
Survey responses show that ~78%of
respondents visit the San Rafael business
districts “often”or “very often”for
Essential purchases.Other common
purposes include Professional Services,
Fitness,and Personal Services;the least
common purposes include Leisure /
Entertainment,Arts /Cultural /
Education,and Fine Dining.
Wgt.
Avg.
3.30
2.63
2.58
2.54
2.38
2.30
2.02
1.98
1.96
1.94
57%
26%
26%
21%
13%
12%
8%
6%
22%
4%
21%
23%
28%
28%
33%
26%
18%
21%
9%
15%
18%
38%
25%
37%
33%
42%
41%
37%
13%
53%
5%
13%
21%
15%
21%
20%
32%
35%
57%
28%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Essentials (grocery, home improvement,…
Professional services (health care,…
Fitness, hiking, recreation or other…
Personal services (hair salon, dry cleaner,…
Family restaurants
Shopping
Fine dining
Arts / cultural / education
Other
Leisure / entertainment
How often do you visit business districts in the
City of San Rafael for the following purposes
4 (Very Often)3 (Often)2 (Sometimes)1 (Never)
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 17
SURVEY RESULTS
NEW BUSINESSES
DOWNTOWN
Survey responses show that greater than
50%of respondents chose “Important”
or “Very Important”for a wide variety of
new business types in the Downtown
area:
•Arts /Cultural /Educational (69%)
•Shopping /Other Retail (64%)
•Live Entertainment (59%)
•Fine Dining (58%)
•Family Restaurants (57%)
•Gathering Places (54%)
•Multifamily Housing (51%)
•First Run Movies (50%)
Wgt.
Avg.
3.00
2.85
2.72
2.69
2.69
2.69
2.56
2.55
2.51
2.46
2.39
2.32
2.29
2.24
1.96
1.75
36%
29%
30%
30%
25%
28%
23%
33%
21%
42%
13%
7%
17%
18%
10%
3%
33%
35%
24%
29%
32%
31%
24%
19%
28%
4%
29%
31%
26%
21%
21%
14%
25%
29%
33%
23%
29%
22%
39%
20%
31%
12%
41%
50%
26%
30%
24%
38%
6%
8%
12%
19%
14%
19%
14%
29%
20%
42%
17%
13%
31%
32%
45%
45%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Arts / cultural / educational
Shopping and other retailers
Gathering places (small / large groups)
Fine dining options
Family restaurants
Live entertainment
Other recreation venues
Multi family housing
First run movies
Other
Fitness / health / wellness
Personal and professional services
Wine bars, brew pubs
Grocery store
Hotel / hospitality
Office
What types of new additional businesses would you
like to see in Downtown San Rafael
4 (Very Important)3 (Important)
2 (Not Important)1 (Not Important at All)
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 18
SURVEY RESULTS
NEW BUSINESSES
NORTH SAN RAFAEL
Survey responses show that greater than
50%of respondents chose “Important”
or “Very Important”for a wide variety of
new business types in the North San
Rafael area:
•Arts /Cultural /Educational (63%)
•Gathering Places (59%)
•Family Restaurants (57%)
•Multifamily Housing (55%)
•Shopping /Other Retail (55%)
•Live Entertainment (54%)
•Other Recreation (53%)
•Fine Dining (53%)
•First Run Movies (50%)
Wgt.
Avg.
2.81
2.81
2.70
2.66
2.66
2.61
2.59
2.53
2.49
2.45
2.43
2.35
2.21
1.92
1.88
1.77
35%
38%
32%
33%
33%
34%
25%
22%
28%
27%
18%
25%
12%
7%
24%
5%
28%
22%
25%
20%
22%
22%
30%
31%
22%
19%
28%
17%
19%
21%
4%
13%
20%
25%
24%
26%
25%
17%
24%
25%
21%
26%
33%
28%
46%
29%
8%
36%
17%
16%
19%
21%
21%
28%
21%
22%
29%
28%
21%
30%
22%
43%
64%
46%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Arts / cultural / educational
Gathering places (small / large groups)
Family restaurants
Fine dining options
Live entertainment
Multi family housing
Shopping and other retailers
Other recreation venues
First run movies
Wine bars, brew pubs
Fitness / health / wellness
Grocery store
Personal / professional services
Hotel / hospitality
Other
Office
What types of new additional businesses would you
like to see in North San Rafael
4 (Very Important)3 (Important)
2 (Not Important)1 (Not Important at All)
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 19
SURVEY RESULTS
CIVIC IMPROVEMENTS
Survey responses show support for a
wide variety of civic improvements /
amenities,with the top ranking choices
including Cleanliness /Appearance,Traffic
Flow,Safety,Mobility /Walkability /
Bikeability /Transit,Public Art /Plazas /
Walkways,and Streetscape /Design /
Built Environment.
Wgt.
Avg.
3.59
3.55
3.40
3.23
3.19
3.11
2.58
2.55
2.55
2.50
67%
66%
59%
55%
47%
38%
24%
22%
22%
50%
26%
24%
25%
19%
31%
39%
27%
30%
31%
7%
8%
15%
19%
17%
18%
33%
29%
27%
6%
6%
5%
17%
19%
20%
50%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Cleanliness / appearance
Traffic flow
Safety
Mobility / walkability / bike-ability / transit
Public art, plazas, and walkways
Streetscape / design / built environment
Parking infrastructure
Technological infrastructure (e.g.…
Signage / wayfinding / lighting
Other
Which of the following civic improvements /
amenities should the City invest in for San Rafael
4 (Very Often)3 (Often)2 (Not Important)1 (Not Important at All)
El Segundo, CA
TEL: 424-297-1070 | URL: www.kosmont.com
CITY OF SAN RAFAEL
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
BUSINESS & COMMUNITY SURVEY RESULTS APPENDIX
January 2023
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
El Segundo, CA
TEL: 424-297-1070 | URL: www.kosmont.com
CITY OF SAN RAFAEL
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
DATA APPENDIX
May 15, 2023
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Pages
A Demographic & Economic Data 3 -13
B Fiscal Data 14 -20
C Real Estate Market Data 21 -32
D Business District Data 33 -71
E Review of Key Plans / Studies 72 -79
F Summary of Stakeholder Outreach &
Business / Community Surveys 80 -87
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 3
A. DEMOGRAPHIC & EMPLOYMENT DATA
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 4
DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY
San Rafael has a population of ~61,500, with ~8% growth over the past 20 years
Average Household Size is 2.6 persons, and the Median Age is 42.3 years; residents are well
educated, with ~57% achieving at least a bachelors degree
City Average Household Income is $164,800, approx. ~14% less than County and 27% higher
than statewide levels
San Rafael sees ~34,000 people coming into City to work with ~19,700 commuting outside for Net
Inflow of ~14,300 jobs, with most workers coming from Novato, San Francisco, and Petaluma
Jobs in the City are primarily in the Healthcare / Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Construction, and
Professional / Scientific / Technical Services sectors
Residents of the City are primarily employed in the Health Care / Social Assistance, Professional /
Scientific / Technical Services, Accommodation / Food Services, and Retail Trade sectors.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 5
POPULATION & INCOME
CITY, COUNTY, AND STATE
San Rafael
City
Marin
County
California
State
Population 61,453 262,403 39,770,476
Households 23,288 103,804 13,570,050
Average HH Size 2.6 2.5 2.9
Median Age 42.3 47 36.7
% Bachelor's Degree or Higher 57.1%63.7%37.8%
Per Capita Income $62,790 $75,995 $44,265
Median HH Income $108,095 $126,960 $88,930
Average HH Income $164,766 $191,736 $129,367
Median Home Value $969,494 $1,113,044 $629,224
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 6
CUMULATIVE POPULATION GROWTH, 2000 –2022
Source: CA DOF
8.0%
4.0%
15.7%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%200020012001200220032004200420052006200720072008200920102010201120122013201320142015201620162017201820192019202020212022Population Growth, 2000 -2022
San Rafael County Total State Total
San Rafael has seen
population growth of ~8%
since 2000,higher than
Marin County at 4%but
lower than California’s
growth of 15.7%.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 7
POPULATION BY AGE COHORT
Age Cohort Population
(2022)
0 -14 Years Old 10,100
15 –24 Years Old 6,900
25 –34 Years Old 7,800
35 –44 Years Old 8,100
45 –54 Years Old 7,900
55 –64 Years Old 7,900
65 –74 Years Old 6,800
75+ Years Old 6,200
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online
16%
11%
13%13%13%13%
11%10%
16%
11%10%11%
14%
16%
14%
10%
19%
13%
15%
13%
12%12%
9%
7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0 - 14
Years Old
15 –24
Years Old
25 –34
Years Old
35 - 44
Years Old
45 - 54
Years Old
55 –64
Years Old
65 –74
Years Old
75+ Years
Old
Population by Age Cohort
San Rafael
City
Marin
County
California
State
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 8
POPULATION BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
23%
15%
5%
34%
23%
15%14%
7%
37%
26%
35%
19%
9%
24%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
HS Grad, GED, or Less Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate / Professional Degree
2022 Population by Educational Attainment
San Rafael
City
Marin
County
California
State
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 9
POPULATION BY INCOME
10%
14%
22%
16%
11%
27%
8%
11%
20%
16%
11%
33%
13%
15%
27%
19%
11%
16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
<$25,000 $25,000 - $50,000 $50,000 - $100,000 $100,000 - $150,000 $150,000 - $200,000 >$200,000
2022 Households by Income Level
San Rafael
City
Marin
County
California
State
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 10
MAJOR EMPLOYERS IN SAN RAFAEL
2021 Data
Major Employer Type Employees
Kaiser Permanente Healthcare 2,339
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.Pharmaceutical 950
San Rafael Elementary / High School Dist(s)Education 700
City of San Rafael Government 412
Dominican University of California Education 394
Buckelew Programs Health Services 103*
Lifehouse Non-profit Organization 100*
EO Products Health Products 108**
Toyota Marin Auto Dealer 141*
Ghilotti Bros., Inc.Construction / Contractor 298
Community Action Marin Non-profit Organization 200
Equator Coffees, LLC Retail 95
Source: City San Rafael ACFR (FY 2021-22); represents number of employees in Marin locations,
* denotes employee counts are 2019 figures, ** denotes employee counts are 2020 figures
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 11
WORKER INFLOW / OUTFLOW
Worker Inflow/Outflow (2019)
Workers Living & Working 5,171
Workers Coming (Inflow)34,047
Workers Going (Outflow)19,701
Net Inflow/Outflow 14,346
Employment Ratio*1.58
Workers employed in the City
but living outside
Workers living & employed in
the City
Workers living in the City but
employed outside
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Center for Economic
Studies (2019, Accessed August 2022)
Notes: *Employment Ratio = People employed
within City (living and working in City + those who
come into the City for work) / Employed population of
City (living and working in City + workers who live in
the City, but work outside of the City)
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 12
Outflow:
Where San Rafael Residents Commute To
City Count Percentage
San Francisco 5,582 22.4%
San Rafael 5,171 20.8%
Novato 1,301 5.2%
Oakland 698 2.8%
Larkspur 591 2.4%
Corte Madera 501 2.0%
Mill Valley 478 1.9%
Kentfield 433 1.7%
San Anselmo 362 1.5%
Sausalito 337 1.4%
Petaluma 329 1.3%
Richmond 327 1.3%
Berkeley 287 1.2%
Santa Rosa 285 1.1%
San Jose 260 1.0%
Emeryville 221 0.9%
South San Francisco 219 0.9%
Fairfax 192 0.8%
Santa Venetia 183 0.7%
Tiburon 181 0.7%
Sacramento 177 0.7%
San Mateo 174 0.7%
Palo Alto 171 0.7%
Tamalpais-Homestead Valley 169 0.7%
Strawberry 160 0.6%
Other 6,083 24.5%
Inflow:
Where San Rafael Workers Come From
City Count Percentage
San Rafael 5,171 13.2%
Novato 3,411 8.7%
San Francisco 2,501 6.4%
Petaluma 1,489 3.8%
Richmond 1,414 3.6%
Vallejo 1,158 3.0%
Santa Rosa 1,026 2.6%
Oakland 1,002 2.6%
Rohnert Park 801 2.0%
San Anselmo 692 1.8%
San Jose 590 1.5%
Larkspur 535 1.4%
Fairfax 433 1.1%
Lucas Valley-Marinwood 429 1.1%
San Pablo 422 1.1%
Santa Venetia 391 1.0%
Fairfield 356 0.9%
Mill Valley 336 0.9%
Daly City 334 0.9%
Berkeley 329 0.8%
Sacramento 323 0.8%
Corte Madera 322 0.8%
Los Angeles 314 0.8%
Napa 303 0.8%
Tamalpais-Homestead Valley 295 0.8%
Other 14,841 37.8%
WORKER
DESTINATIONS &
ORIGINS
CITY OF
SAN RAFAEL
Workers who live in San Rafael
primarily work in San Francisco, San
Rafael, Novato, Oakland, and Larkspur.
Employees who work in primarily
come from San Rafael, Novato, San
Francisco, Petaluma, and Richmond.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies, OnTheMap, 2019
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 13
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
City Resident Employed Population
Sector Share
Health Care and Social Assistance 14.3%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 11.8%
Accommodation and Food Services 9.9%
Retail Trade 9.7%
Educational Services 8.7%
Administration & Support, Waste Management and
Remediation 5.7%
Construction 5.6%
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)4.7%
Manufacturing 4.4%
Information 4.3%
Finance and Insurance 3.9%
Public Administration 3.6%
Other Industries 13.4%
Workers Employed Within City
Sector Share
Health Care and Social Assistance 18.2%
Retail Trade 13.0%
Construction 9.1%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 8.0%
Educational Services 8.0%
Accommodation and Food Services 7.6%
Public Administration 6.7%
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)5.5%
Administration & Support, Waste Management and
Remediation 4.6%
Management of Companies and Enterprises 3.8%
Transportation and Warehousing 2.9%
Wholesale Trade 2.5%
Other Industries 10.1%
“Industries in which City residents work” “Jobs in the City”
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies, OnTheMap, 2019
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 14
B. FISCAL DATA
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 15
FISCAL SUMMARY
San Rafael receives ~89% of its General Fund revenue from taxes, of which 37% are property taxes and VLF,
~52% of its tax revenue from various sales taxes, and the remainder from franchise, business, and transient
occupancy taxes
Sales Tax revenues have grown ~82% since 2013, or approx. 6.9% per year;
Actual retail sales grew approximately 2.2% annually since 2016
Measure E (0.75% TUT exp 2034) and Measure R (0.25% exp 2030) increased the tax rate, creating greater growth in
total tax revenues
County Pool revenues increased dramatically in past 10 years
Property Tax revenues have grown ~86.7% since 2013, or approx. 7.2% per year; Assessed Value growth
driven by high real estate values and mark-to-market reassessments for sale of long-held properties
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 16
TAX REVENUE OVERVIEW
FY2022-23 BUDGET
Note: San Rafael collects an estimated 12.2% of the 1% Property Tax general levy
Source: San Rafael 2022-23 Proposed Budget
FY2022-23 Budget
Property Taxes $ 24,409,721
Property Tax -VLF Backfill 6,700,000
Sales Tax 25,085,742
Sales Tax -Measure E 14,694,975
Sales Tax -Measure R 4,898,325
Franchise Tax 4,182,016
Business Tax 2,669,567
Transient Occupancy Tax 2,483,067
Taxes Subtotal 85,123,413
Revenues from Other Agencies
CSA #19 Fire Service 2,442,513
Other Agencies 1,903,252
Other
Permits & Licenses 3,010,159
Fine & Forfeiture 186,732
Interest & Rents 47,500
Charges for Services 2,568,965
Other Revenue 588,196
Total 95,870,730
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 17
FISCAL SUMMARY
HISTORIC TAX REVENUE COLLECTIONS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2013 -
2022
Growth
CAGR
Property
Taxes 20,107,637 17,317,772 18,439,619 19,039,443 19,998,567 23,343,140 24,627,373 25,903,240 26,491,505 30,993,516 32,324,129 86.7%7.2%
Sales Taxes 22,355,749 24,262,282 27,758,971 32,269,915 34,348,089 31,819,259 34,119,502 35,626,646 33,784,770 39,599,113 44,110,471 81.8%6.9%
Paramedic 3,807,545 3,804,985 3,816,070 3,820,240 4,226,020 5,485,637 4,923,148 4,934,584 4,923,092 5,153,448 5,109,836 34.3%3.3%
Transient
Occupancy 1,866,575 2,185,287 2,332,277 2,661,878 3,063,263 2,984,758 3,115,151 3,203,499 2,410,745 1,797,578 2,976,234 36.2%3.5%
Franchise 3,076,094 3,331,160 3,260,958 3,272,390 3,418,277 3,610,824 3,726,841 3,627,254 4,029,050 3,973,806 4,209,979 26.4%2.6%
Business
License 2,332,146 2,507,785 2,588,728 2,670,071 2,824,664 2,774,803 2,790,212 2,788,496 2,824,722 2,575,341 2,645,636 5.5%0.6%
Other 3,574,918 2,929,915 3,452,171 3,295,751 3,465,193 1,824,830 2,245,882 1,783,170 2,152,617 2,996,950 3,108,543 6.1%0.7%
TOTAL 57,120,664 56,339,186 61,648,794 67,029,688 71,344,073 71,843,251 75,548,109 77,866,889 76,616,501 87,089,752 94,484,828 67.7%5.9%
Source: San Rafael 2022 ACFR
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 18
SALES TAX HISTORY
Source: CA DOF; San Rafael FY 2022 ACFR
Year San Rafael County
Pool
Pool
Share
2016 17,592,000 2,914,000 16.6%
2017 18,213,000 3,072,000 16.9%
2018 18,479,000 3,296,000 17.8%
2019 18,918,000 3,999,000 21.1%
2020 16,149,000 5,585,000 34.6%
2021 19,633,000 5,162,000 26.3%
5-Year Growth 12%77%
COVID-19 Effect
(2019-2020)14.6%-39.7%
CAGR 2.2%12.1%
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Q4 2021Q3 2021Q2 2021Q1 2021Q4 2020Q3 2020Q2 2020Q1 2020Q4 2019Q3 2019Q2 2019Q1 2019Q4 2018Q3 2018Q2 2018Q1 2018Q4 2017Q3 2017Q2 2017Q1 2017Q4 2016Q3 2016Q2 2016Q1 2016City and County Sales Tax Revenue by Quarter,
Q1 2016 –Q4 2021
San Rafael County Pool
In FY2022, the top 25 sales tax producers provide 52% of overall sales tax revenues; the top sales tax categories were:
Autos and Transportation: 30%
Building and Construction: 22%
State / County Pools (e-commerce): 16%
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 19
ASSESSED VALUE –REAL SECURED PROPERTY
Residential
Property
76%
Commercial
Property
21%
IndustrialProperty2%
Other
1%
Assessed Value: Real Secured Property
San Rafael’s Real Secured
Property Tax is overwhelming
from residential property
(76%),with 21%coming from
commercial property and 2%
industrial property
Source: San Rafael 2022 ACFR
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 20
ILLUSTRATIVE FISCAL REVENUE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT
To evaluate economic opportunities,here is an illustration of incremental tax revenues generated from
various types of development on a typical 1-acre parcel:
10,000 SF
Commercial
Services
10,000 SF
Retail
10,000 SF
Restaurant
50-unit
Multifamily
Housing
60-room
Upscale Hotel
Property Taxes +
VLF $10,000 $10,000 $15,000 $65,000 $50,000
Direct Sales Taxes $30,000 $70,000 $100,000
Indirect Sales Taxes $20,000 $50,000
Hotel TOT $300,000
Annual General
Fund Revenues $40,000 $80,000 $115,000 $85,000 $400,000
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 21
C. REAL ESTATE MARKET DATA
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 22
MARKET SUMMARY
San Rafael saw almost no growth in commercial, industrial, and apartment markets over the
past decade
With less than 25% of the population, San Rafael represents a much more significant share
of Marin County Economic Activity:
Retail: 38% of inventory, rents are 12% lower and vacancy is 0.2% lower
Office: 43% of inventory, rents are 3% lower and vacancy is 3.4% lower
Industrial: 62% of inventory, rents are 2% higher and vacancy is 2.9% lower
Flex / R&D: 32% of inventory, rents are 5% lower and vacancy is 1.1% lower
Multifamily: 40% of inventory, rents are 16% lower and vacancy is 0.3% lower
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 23
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY OVERVIEW
RETAIL
Major Properties Type GLA Major Tenants
Northgate Mall Regional Mall 786,965 Macy's Backstage, Restoration Hardware, Kohl's,
Cinemark, HomeGoods
Montecito Plaza Neighborhood Center 213,483 Trader Joe's, Petco, Rite Aid
Northgate Shopping Center Neighborhood Center 117,331 Safeway, Walgreens, Big 5 Sporting Goods
580-620 Francisco Blvd Neighborhood Center 85,458 TJ Maxx, Scandinavian Designs
Marin Square Neighborhood Center 82,000 Grocery Outlet, Ross Dress For Less
Shamrock Center Neighborhood Center 79,401 Sprouts, Staples, Sleep City
Northgate Shopping center III Neighborhood Center 71,805 Michaels, CVS
111 Shoreline 235,987 Target, Home Depot
Other
Auto dealership properties clustered along Francisco Blvd near US-101, Shoreline Pkwy
Downtown Retail / restaurant district, west of US-101, south of Fifth Ave, east of H Street, north of Second St --includes older mixed-use
storefront retail buildings
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 24
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY OVERVIEW
OFFICE
Major Properties Name GLA Available SF Major Tenants
3501 Civic Center Dr Marin County Civic Center 413,748
1600-1650 Los Gamos Dr Marin Commons 461,831 50,583 Marin County, One Tam, Kaiser Permanente
4000 Civic Center Dr Marin Executive Center /
Medical Office 142,364 68,915 Marin General Hospital, Sutter Ambulatory Care
4040 Civic Center Dr 130,828 14,251 Pasha Group, Regus
100-200 Smith Ranch Road Regency Center 259,000 117,021 Kaiser Permanente, XiO, Strategic Energy
Innovations, Putney Financial
111 McInnis Pky Autodesk 115,514 115,514 Autodesk
1000 4th St Courthouse Square 104,577 26,406 Keegin Harrison LLP, Carlin & Associates, Shared
Hr
750-790 Lindaro St (and Lincoln St)San Raphael Corporate Center 399,424 BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Morgan Stanley
Other
Downtown area includes a couple of older buildings from the 1930s with ~130k SF
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 25
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY OVERVIEW
INDUSTRIAL
Major Properties Name GLA Major Tenants
PROPOSED: 999 3rd St R&D 140,000 Biomarin Pharmaceutical
1080 Andersen Dr Warehouse 108,925 Marin Sanitary Services
1011 Andersen Dr Light Distribution 61,582 Golden Gate Bridge Transportation
1050 Andersen Dr Warehouse 57,682 Marin Sanitary Service LLC
Other
Inventory concentrated in areas along US-101
Inventory is predominantly smaller buildings --only 4 buildings over 50kSF, they total ~280k SF
Flex area concentrated near Mitchell Blvd / Paul Dr east of US_101, tenants vary --including construction / contracting, tech firms, fitness
Flex / R&D area along Kerner Blvd east of I-580 -tenants include construction/contracting, tech/aerospace,
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 26
Source: CoStar, Smith Travel Research
Property Name Property Address Rooms Constr Status Building
Class Scale Hotel Open Date
Embassy Suites by Hilton San Rafael Marin 101 McInnis Pky 236 Existing B Upper Upscale 10/01/1990
Four Points by Sheraton San Rafael Marin
County 1010 Northgate 235 Existing B Upscale 06/01/1970
Villa Inn 1600 Lincoln Ave 60 Existing C Independent 06/01/1955
Panama Hotel 4 Bayview St 14 Existing B Independent
North Bay Inn 855 E Francisco Blvd 19 Existing C Independent 01/01/2005
Extended Stay America -Francisco Blvd East 1775 Francisco Blvd E 112 Existing C Economy 04/01/2007
Motel 6 San Rafael 737 E Francisco Blvd 68 Existing C Economy 06/01/1958
SureStay by Best Western San Rafael 865 Francisco Blvd E 32 Existing C Economy 06/01/1978
Marin Lodge 1735 Lincoln Ave 17 Existing C Independent 01/01/1947
34-50 Grove St 9 Existing C Independent
AC Hotels by Marriott San Rafael 1201 5th Ave 140 Under Construction B Upscale
Hampton Inn and Suites by Hilton San Rafael 1075 Francisco Blvd E 99 Proposed B Upper Midscale
Home2 Suites by Hilton San Rafael 1075 Francisco Blvd E 86 Proposed B Upper Midscale
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY OVERVIEW
HOTEL
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 27
MARIN COUNTY VS SAN RAFAEL
Inventory Vacancy Market Rent
2022 Q4 County City City Share
of County County City County City
Retail 13,407,000 SF 5,034,400 SF 38%3.4%3.2%$33.58 $29.48
Office 12,737,600 SF 5,505,700 SF 43%18.2%14.8%$39.58 $38.23
Industrial 5,336,500 SF 3,314,700 SF 62%3.5%0.6%$21.11 $21.48
Flex 2,967,800 SF 958,600 SF 32%4.3%3.2%$24.59 $23.38
Multifamily 21,550 Units 8,674 Units 40%3.6%3.3%$2,611 $2,205
Source: CoStar; Market rents for retail, office, industrial, and flex given as annual rent per square foot –monthly rent can be determined by dividing
figure by 12 (e.g.a market rent of $30 is $2.50 per square foot per month).
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 28
CITY RETAIL MARKET HISTORY
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF Total Vacant Percent
% Total
Net Absorption
SF Total
NNN Rent
Overall
2022 YTD 5,032,725 181,151 3.6%10,670 $26.49
2021 5,029,487 191,298 3.8%13,080 $27.29
2020 5,029,487 204,378 4.1%(37,841)$27.25
2019 5,029,487 166,537 3.3%(65,117)$27.39
2018 5,012,396 84,329 1.7%55,405 $31.49
2017 5,012,396 139,734 2.8%(6,905)$25.21
2016 5,012,396 132,829 2.7%37,277 $17.87
2015 5,012,396 170,106 3.4%(44,151)$20.74
2014 5,012,396 125,955 2.5%9,201 $18.99
2013 5,014,696 137,456 2.7%1,411 $19.44
2012 5,014,696 138,867 2.8%18,496 $19.31
2011 5,014,696 157,363 3.1%4,110 $19.45
2010 5,044,696 191,473 3.8%43,793 $22.47
2009 5,015,158 205,728 4.1%(100,074)$19.40
2008 5,022,506 113,002 2.2%22,378 $18.24
Source: CoStar (Accessed August 2022)
Note: Costar defines Triple Net (NNN) as “a lease where the tenant is responsible for all expenses associated with their proportional share of
occupancy of the building, except long-lived structural components and management charges.”
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%2022 YTD20212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008Vacancy Rate
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
NNN Rent
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 29
CITY OFFICE MARKET HISTORY
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF Total Vacant Percent
% Total
Net Absorption
SF Total
Gross Rent
Overall
2022 YTD 5,496,234 732,009 13.3%(53,393)$37.79
2021 5,496,234 678,616 12.3%(76,753)$38.81
2020 5,505,445 611,074 11.1%(138,906)$39.09
2019 5,485,445 452,168 8.2%29,487 $37.27
2018 5,485,445 481,655 8.8%(45,087)$35.62
2017 5,409,557 360,680 6.7%(6,231)$34.89
2016 5,409,557 354,449 6.6%115,240 $32.52
2015 5,324,557 384,689 7.2%193,981 $30.28
2014 5,313,905 568,018 10.7%(22,256)$28.60
2013 5,322,334 554,191 10.4%70,991 $28.11
2012 5,322,334 625,182 11.7%171,873 $27.41
2011 5,332,894 807,615 15.1%316,406 $26.42
2010 5,332,894 1,124,021 21.1%(75,658)$27.26
2009 5,332,894 1,048,363 19.7%(187,917)$28.66
2008 5,192,382 719,934 13.9%60,983 $30.86
Source: CoStar (Accessed August 2022)
Note: Costar defines Full Service / Gross Rent as “a rental rate that includes normal building standard services which are provided and paid by the
landlord.”
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Vacancy Rate
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Gross Rent
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 30
CITY INDUSTRIAL MARKET HISTORY
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF Total Vacant Percent
% Total
Net Absorption
SF Total
NNN Rent
Overall
2022 YTD 3,314,700 30,966 0.9%(9,301)-
2021 3,314,700 21,665 0.7%68,211 $14.40
2020 3,314,700 89,876 2.7%(33,148)$16.04
2019 3,314,700 56,728 1.7%(9,235)-
2018 3,314,700 47,493 1.4%12,190 -
2017 3,314,700 59,683 1.8%(37,772)-
2016 3,314,700 21,911 0.7%2,746 $13.92
2015 3,314,700 24,657 0.7%34,690 -
2014 3,314,700 59,347 1.8%21,550 $15.00
2013 3,314,700 80,897 2.4%36,223 $12.74
2012 3,314,700 117,120 3.5%16,307 $14.00
2011 3,314,700 133,427 4.0%(26,238)$14.40
2010 3,314,700 107,189 3.2%53,213 $14.65
2009 3,306,375 152,077 4.6%(91,537)$12.44
2008 3,306,375 60,540 1.8%30,693 -
Source: CoStar (Accessed August 2022)
Note: Costar defines Triple Net (NNN) as “a lease where the tenant is responsible for all expenses associated with their
proportional share of occupancy of the building, except long-lived structural components and management charges.”
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Vacancy Rate
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
NNN Rent
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 31
CITY FLEX MARKET HISTORY
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF Total Vacant Percent
% Total
Net Absorption
SF Total
NNN Rent
Overall
2022 YTD 968,034 43,231 4.5%(47,240)-
2021 1,006,034 33,991 3.4%25,055 $21.66
2020 1,006,034 59,046 5.9%(18,867)-
2019 1,006,034 40,179 4.0%(32,773)$17.40
2018 1,006,034 7,406 0.7%45,230 -
2017 1,006,034 52,636 5.2%(15,879)$16.80
2016 1,006,034 36,757 3.7%(13,685)$16.80
2015 1,006,034 23,072 2.3%(1,834)-
2014 1,006,034 21,238 2.1%(1,849)-
2013 1,006,034 19,389 1.9%27,809 -
2012 1,006,034 47,198 4.7%2,797 -
2011 1,006,034 49,995 5.0%42,840 -
2010 1,006,034 92,835 9.2%(6,094)-
2009 1,006,034 86,741 8.6%(58,813)$14.40
2008 1,006,034 27,928 2.8%1,012 -
Source: CoStar (Accessed August 2022)
Note: Costar defines Triple Net (NNN) as “a lease where the tenant is responsible for all expenses associated with their
proportional share of occupancy of the building, except long-lived structural components and management charges.”
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Vacancy Rate
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
NNN Rent
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 32
CITY MULTIFAMILY MARKET HISTORY
Year Inventory Units Vacant Units Vacancy Percent Net Absorption
(Units)
Asking Rent
(Unit/Mo.)
2022 YTD 6,269 194 3.1%(19)$2,331
2021 6,269 176 2.8%97 $2,318
2020 6,228 232 3.7%(46)$2,185
2019 6,228 187 3.0%2 $2,206
2018 6,228 189 3.0%8 $2,165
2017 6,228 196 3.1%33 $2,117
2016 6,203 204 3.3%5 $2,076
2015 6,203 208 3.4%(1)$2,036
2014 6,187 191 3.1%13 $1,910
2013 6,187 204 3.3%73 $1,818
2012 6,187 277 4.5%31 $1,735
2011 6,187 307 5.0%27 $1,683
2010 6,105 252 4.1%(44)$1,637
2009 6,209 312 5.0%(97)$1,626
2008 6,234 240 3.8%(60)$1,668
Source: CoStar (Accessed August 2022)
Note: Costar defines Asking Rent as “average monthly amount the lessor is asking for in order to lease their building/space/land.” Analytic filters exclude senior / student / military / corporation / vacation housing / co-ops; limit search to buildings with 5+ units; and Market / Market Affordable rent types.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%2022 YTD20212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008Vacancy Rate
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Asking Rent
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 33
D. BUSINESS DISTRICT DATA
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 34
SAN RAFAEL
DISTRICTS
Boundaries based on San Rafael Neighborhood Group
boundaries, and include Sphere of Influence areas
Sources:
ESRI BAO Online, City of San Rafael
North
San Rafael
San Pedro
Peninsula
Central
San Rafael
Canal
Downtown
Five business areas were identified
for analysis, based on Neighborhood
Group boundaries from the City’s
website:
•North San Rafael
•San Pedro Peninsula
•Central San Rafael
•Downtown
•Canal
Boundaries are provided for
illustrative purposes only.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 35
DISTRICT DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY
Downtown San Rafael Canal North San Rafael Central San Rafael San Pedro Peninsula
Population 2,300 12,600 30,800 21,800 6,600
Households 1,100 3,190 12,210 9,010 2,640
Avg HH Size 1.92 3.92 2.44 2.35 2.46
Median Age 40.3 31.5 49.7 43.9 54.6
Education: Bach Degree +54%19%64%64%73%
Median Household Income $77,700 $62,000 $118,700 $115,100 $194,300
Average Household Income $96,600 $99,600 $173,900 $173,100 $248,300
Median Home Value $706,300 $799,000 $904,600 $1,058,300 $1,308,100
Owner Occupied Housing Units 9%20%67%46%80%
Median Year Housing Unit Built 1961 1972 1967 1958 1968
Median Year Moved into Unit 2010 2010 2008 2011 2005
Source: ESRI; includes areas with the incorporated City of San Rafael as well as the San Rafael sphere of influence
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 36
BUSINESS SUMMARY -ESTIMATED ~$6 BILLION IN
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Source: City of San Rafael
District Business Tax Geoarea Est. % of City
Gross Receipts # Firms Estimated Gross
Receipts
Canal Canal 30.8%760 $1,778,532,000
Downtown Downtown 17.9%1,510 1,035,615,000
North San Rafael Northgate Ind Pk 16.0%626 927,024,000
North San Rafael Terra Linda 13.4%645 776,269,000
Central Br Harte 13.6%350 783,209,000
Central Linc/SV 1.2%445 70,483,000
Central / San Pedro Peninsula SP Ridge 1.2%315 67,715,000
Outside San Rafael -5.9%1,168 338,530,000
TOTAL 5,819 $5,777,381,000
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 37
Business Type Est. Gross Receipts % Total City
Gross Receipts
Motor Vehicle Dealer $ 679,400,000 11.8%
Administrative Offices $ 434,600,000 7.5%
Building Supply/Materials $ 376,000,000 6.5%
Manufacturing $ 297,000,000 5.1%
Medical Clinic $ 268,100,000 4.6%
Grocery $ 262,100,000 4.5%
Contractor Out Of Town $ 194,200,000 3.4%
Wholesale Merchant $ 192,000,000 3.3%
Apartment House $ 156,700,000 2.7%
Contractor In Town $ 143,000,000 2.5%
Attorney $ 141,000,000 2.4%
Misc. Services $ 136,900,000 2.4%
Motor Vehicle Repair $ 115,900,000 2.0%
Restaurant $ 114,700,000 2.0%
Department Store $ 110,100,000 1.9%
Consulting $ 95,100,000 1.6%
Service Station $ 75,000,000 1.3%
Financial Services $ 65,400,000 1.1%
Engineering $ 60,900,000 1.1%
Import Exports $ 55,500,000 1.0%
Accountant $ 55,100,000 1.0%
Drug Store $ 52,800,000 0.9%
Furniture Sales $ 42,500,000 0.7%
Investment Advice $ 40,800,000 0.7%
Real Estate Broker/Agent $ 34,500,000 0.6%
SAN RAFAEL
BUSINESS TAX
DATA
•The business categories with
the largest gross receipts in
the City include Motor Vehicle
Dealers, Administrative Offices,
Building Supply/Materials, and
Manufacturing.
•The top 25 business categories
by gross receipts are listed at
the right; these categories
account for ~75% of the City’s
gross receipts.
Source: City of San Rafael; some top categories
excluded due to confidentiality
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 38
SALES TAX BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA
Source: City of San Rafael, HdL; some overlap between areas, calculations are for illustrative reference only
2018 2019 2020 2021
Terra Linda 2,317,000 2,164,000 1,528,000 1,892,000
Downtown Business District 975,000 925,000 717,000 909,000
West Francisco 3,631,000 3,330,000 2,771,000 3,307,000
East Francisco 3,162,000 3,342,000 3,115,000 3,798,000
Shoreline 2,765,000 2,679,000 2,492,000 2,860,000
Andersen 2,119,000 2,204,000 2,318,000 2,665,000
North Canal / East 101 851,000 827,000 676,000 779,000
West 101 1,035,000 1,035,000 944,000 1,055,000
Other 1,184,000 1,166,000 1,096,000 1,018,000
Total -All Outlets 18,872,000 18,458,000 16,263,000 19,072,000
2021 vs 2018
Andersen +25.8%
East Francisco +20.1%
Shoreline +3.4%
West 101 +1.9%
All Outlets +1.1%
Downtown -6.8%
North Canal /
East 101 -8.5%
West
Francisco -8.9%
Terra Linda -18.3%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2018 2019 2020 2021
Sales Tax By Area:
Comparison to 2018 Baseline
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 39
REAL ESTATE DATA SUMMARY
Downtown San Rafael Canal North San Rafael Central San Rafael San Pedro Peninsula
Population 2,300 12,600 30,800 21,800 6,600
Households 1,100 3,190 12,210 9,010 2,640
Retail SF 1,442,000 1,632,000 1,031,000 530,000 55,000
Office SF 1,345,000 851,000 2,168,000 429,000
Flex SF 1,000 516,000 424,000 17,000
Industrial SF 37,000 2,801,000 306,000 170,000
Multifamily Units 750 1,480 2,760 2,610 4
Hotel Rooms -230 470 100
Source: CoStar, ESRI BAO
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 40
NORTH SAN RAFAEL AREA
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 41
NORTHGATE OVERVIEW
Northgate Mall has been a major commercial center for the City for the past 50 years. The closure of
Sears and loss of in line shops resulted in the 2017 sale of the Mall to Merlone Geier Partners, who
has submitted a proposed Specific Plan to redevelop the 45-acre site with a reduced commercial
center and up to 1,300 townhomes and apartment units.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 42
NORTHGATE AERIAL
Northgate Mall
43.9 AC
Macy’s | Kohl’s | Cinema
HomeGoods
RH Outlet | restaurants
Northgate I
9.6 AC
Safeway | Just Food For Dogs
Big 5 Sporting Goods | restaurants
Local services
Northgate III
10.7 AC
Michael’s | restaurants
Local services
Office
Multifamily
Office
Hotel
Source: CoStar, Google Earth
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 43
NORTHGATE AREA MARKET DATA
Inventory Vacancy Market Rent Market Rent
Growth, 10-yr
Retail 1,184,000 SF 4.7%$31.84 17.7%
Office 1,015,000 SF 34.1%$40.34 38.2%
Multifamily 1,484 units 3.0%$2,476 33.9%
Industrial / Flex 46,000 SF -$22.69 66.0%
Hotel 471 Units
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 44
NORTHGATE INDUSTRIAL PARK / SMITH RANCH
OVERVIEW
Located northeast of the Northgate area on the east side of the 101 Freeway, the Northgate Industrial
Park / Smith Ranch area of North San Rafael is home to business parks with flex industrial, office, and
retail spaces and a variety of businesses.
While the area is generally built out, it could be an area of opportunity to bring revitalized infrastructure
to better serve these commercial uses, as well as potentially incorporating new uses.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 45
NORTHGATE INDUSTRIAL PARK / SMITH RANCH
AERIAL
County Office Building
315k SF
Kaiser Permanente
147k SF
Cinemark
35k SF
Regency Center
259k SF
Business Park
Flex / Industrial, Retail, Office
Source: CoStar, Google Earth
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 46
NORTHGATE INDUSTRIAL PARK / SMITH RANCH
MARKET DATA
Inventory Vacancy Market Rent Market Rent
Growth, 10-yr
Retail 60,700 SF -$27.33 20.0%
Office 1,231,000 SF 15.4%$35.48 28.0%
Industrial / Flex 677,000 SF 1.5%$21.61 62.8%
Multifamily 812 Units 3.9%$3,115 40.8%
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 47
DOWNTOWN AREA
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 48
DOWNTOWN OVERVIEW
Downtown San Rafael is a historic downtown that has served a central
role for Marin County, home to office buildings and main street retail along
the 4th Street corridor and the surrounding area.
Downtown San Rafael:
Retail: Represents 30% of citywide, small shops and restaurants, with
vacancy levels slightly higher than overall city averages.
Office: Represents 20% of citywide, small local-serving offices as well as
professional office buildings and the BioMarin complex.
Multifamily: Less than 10% of citywide, new large apartment buildings,
with rents steadily increasing.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 49
DOWNTOWN AERIAL
BioMarin
SMART Station
Mission San Rafael
4th St Corridor City Hall
Source: CoStar, Google Earth
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 50
DOWNTOWN RETAIL MARKET DATA
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF
Total
Vacant
Percent %
Total
Net
Absorption
SF Total
NNN Rent
Overall
Market
Rent
2022 YTD 1,441,991 78,141 5.4%3,489 $30.33 $29.65
2021 1,441,991 81,630 5.7%(25,124)$35.30 $28.84
2020 1,441,991 56,506 3.9%(29,052)$36.38 $28.20
2019 1,441,991 27,454 1.9%2,932 $34.87 $27.76
2018 1,441,991 30,386 2.1%43,531 $34.00 $27.07
2017 1,441,991 73,917 5.1%(5,898)$23.64 $26.57
2016 1,441,991 68,019 4.7%38,024 $18.61 $25.86
2015 1,441,991 106,043 7.4%(34,227)$19.48 $25.32
2014 1,441,991 71,816 5.0%10,067 $17.82 $24.92
2013 1,441,991 81,883 5.7%(4,663)$16.98 $24.62
2012 1,441,991 77,220 5.4%14,377 $16.29 $24.23
2011 1,441,991 91,597 6.4%(1,836)$14.34 $24.30
2010 1,441,991 89,761 6.2%(20,450)$18.86 $24.85
2009 1,441,991 69,311 4.8%(36,331)$19.00 $25.82
2008 1,449,339 40,328 2.8%6,258 $22.17 $27.71
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%2022 YTD20212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008Vacancy Rate
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
NNN Rent
NNN Rent Overall Market RentSource: CoStar; Costar defines Triple Net (NNN) as “a lease where the tenant is responsible for all expenses associated with their proportional share of occupancy of the building, except long-lived structural components and management charges,” and these rent figures are based on what is available on the market at any given point in time (and so are weighted by actual available SF). The “market” rent figures are modeled values representing an aggregated time series for all properties within a market.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 51
DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET DATA
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF
Total
Vacant
Percent %
Total
Net
Absorption
SF Total
Gross Rent
Overall
Market
Rent
2022 YTD 1,344,639 113,958 8.5%2,450 $38.06 $39.76
2021 1,344,639 116,408 8.7%721 $38.23 $39.36
2020 1,353,850 126,340 9.3%(23,314)$39.74 $39.11
2019 1,333,850 83,026 6.2%(25,347)$38.19 $40.16
2018 1,333,850 57,679 4.3%(3,986)$35.15 $37.69
2017 1,333,850 53,693 4.0%(19,178)$35.92 $36.79
2016 1,333,850 34,515 2.6%85,187 $33.10 $34.94
2015 1,248,850 34,702 2.8%26,486 $32.63 $34.16
2014 1,238,198 50,536 4.1%18,528 $32.37 $32.38
2013 1,246,627 77,493 6.2%50,900 $30.11 $31.41
2012 1,246,627 128,393 10.3%115,459 $28.23 $31.44
2011 1,257,187 254,412 20.2%425 $29.45 $30.35
2010 1,257,187 254,837 20.3%8,986 $34.80 $31.13
2009 1,257,187 263,823 21.0%(27,491)$37.24 $32.84
2008 1,099,779 78,924 7.2%11,713 $37.11 $35.73
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Vacancy Rate
$0
$20
$40
$60
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Rent
NNN Rent Overall Market RentNote: Costar defines Full Service / Gross Rent as “a rental rate that includes normal building standard services which are provided and paid by the landlord,” and these rent figures are based on what is available on the market at any given point in time (and so are weighted by actual available SF). The “market” rent figures are modeled values representing an aggregated time series for all properties within a market.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 52
DOWNTOWN APARTMENT MARKET DATA
Year Inventory
Units Vacant Units Vacancy
Percent
Net
Absorption
(Units)
Asking Rent
(Unit/Mo.)
Asking Rent
(SF/Mo.)
2022 YTD 623 30 4.8%11 $2,718.00 $3.82
2021 623 41 6.6%32 $2,681.00 $3.77
2020 582 31 5.4%(9)$2,406.00 $3.38
2019 582 22 3.8%-$2,419.00 $3.40
2018 582 22 3.7%-$2,470.00 $3.47
2017 582 22 3.8%19 $2,376.00 $3.34
2016 572 32 5.7%(7)$2,357.00 $3.31
2015 572 25 4.3%(7)$2,257.00 $3.17
2014 572 17 3.0%13 $2,116.00 $2.97
2013 572 30 5.3%(3)$2,066.00 $2.90
2012 572 28 4.9%(3)$1,933.00 $2.71
2011 572 25 4.4%5 $1,851.00 $2.60
2010 572 29 5.1%(2)$1,813.00 $2.54
2009 572 28 4.9%(31)$1,785.00 $2.50
2008 597 23 3.8%(5)$1,827.00 $2.56
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%2022 YTD20212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008Vacancy Rate
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Asking Rent
Source: CoStar
Note: Costar defines Asking Rent as “average monthly amount the lessor is asking for in order to lease their building/space/land.” Analytic filters exclude senior / student / military / corporation / vacation housing / co-ops; limit search to buildings with 5+ units; and Market / Market Affordable rent types.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 53
DOWNTOWN SALE COMPS
Address Sale Date Size Sales Price $/PSF Lot AC Use
Retail
1017 4th St 9/28/2022 2,292 SF $1,350,000 $589 0.09 Class C Storefront, built 1925
899 Lincoln Ave 5/6/2022 11,957 SF $500,000 $42 0.37 Class C Freestanding, built 1915
1007-1011 C St 4/22/2022 4,100 SF $1,275,000 $311 0.11 Class C Storefront, built 1942
1430 4th St 2/3/2022 2,126 SF $1,500,000 $706 0.22 Class C Storefront, built 1959
1444-1446 4th St 6/30/2021 5,280 SF $2,100,000 $398 0.13 Class C Storefront, built 1920
Office
1531 5th Ave 4/28/2022 2,062 SF $750,000 $364 0.17 Class C medical office, built 1910
747 B St 1/31/2022 5,500 SF $1,700,000 $309 0.34 Class C, St Vincent de Paul Society, built 1970
638 5th Ave 10/22/2021 2,382 SF $1,037,500 $436 0.06 Class C, built 1910
813 D St 10/20/2021 1,600 SF $889,000 $556 0.11 Class C, built 1882
1099 D St 8/30/2019 26,690 SF $11,000,000 $412 0.54 The American Building, medical office, built 1981
Multifamily
155 Andersen Dr 8/8/2022 91,195 SF / 126 units $58,600,000 $643 1.73 One55 Lofts, Class B built in 2001
815 B St 11/16/2021 58,088 SF / 41 units $32,130,000 $553 0.54 Class A built in 2021
5 F St 2/7/2021 4,329 SF / 8 units $2,550,000 $589 0.14 Class C, built in 1961
1533 4th St 12/28/2018 6,792 SF / 5 units $3,640,000 $536 0.17 Class C, storefront bar, built 1925
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 54
DOWNTOWN RECENT PROJECTS
815 B St (built 2021)
41 Units and retail on 0.5
AC lot
Rent: $4,216 / mo
($4.75 / sf)
AV: $11,558,890 ($282k /
unit) (partial assessment)
Sold Nov 2021 for $32.1m
($784k / unit)
1700 4th St –G Square (built 2017)
10 Units and retail on 0.2
AC lot
Rent: $3,868 / mo ($3.71 /
sf)
AV: $6,395,731 ($639.6k /
unit)
1415 3rd St (built 2015)
10,652 SF Medical Office Est Rent: $31 -38/fs
Comp: 1.5k SF Signed
August 2015 for $67.27
AV: $13,906,303
($1,306k / unit)
Sold Apr 2016 for $12.97m
($1,218 / SF)
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 55
MOBILE ANALYTICS -4TH STREET CORRIDOR
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 56
PRELIMINARY PLACER.AI VISITOR DATA
BACKGROUND & SUMMARY
Kosmont conducted a preliminary, high-level analysis of visits to key areas of Downtown San Rafael using mobile
visitor data provided by Placer.ai.
An initial review of this data shows that the 4th Street Corridor area draw visitors from San Rafael and other
nearby surrounding communities; visits to the 4th Street Corridor area are still generally below pre-COVID
levels, with the West End area of 4th Street recovering at a slightly greater level.
Kosmont also used Placer.ai data to collect information about visits to areas of 4th Street during the Friday Night
Block Party events in summer 2022 that occurred in the West End area. The Placer.ai sample size of visitors
during these key events is fairly small, presenting some challenges to generalizing results.
This preliminary data shows that Fridays throughout the past year generally have a larger number of visits to the
West End than average, and visits on Fridays tend to peak around 7pm, with ~27% of the day’s visits occurring
between 7-10pm. A modest percentage of Friday visitors to the West End either come from or go to a dining or
leisure location before / after visiting the West End area, with popular locations being bars and restaurants in the
downtown San Rafael area. Summer Fridays follow a similar pattern.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 57
MAP OF DOWNTOWN SAN RAFAEL STUDY AREAS
West End
4th St
Corridor
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 58
SAN RAFAEL
AREA VISITOR
PERFORMANCE
SUMMARY
Sources:
Placer.ai (Accessed August 2022)
Visits:
8/21 –7/22
4th Street –
West End
4th Street
Corridor
Est. Annual Visits 360,400 2,759,300
Median Weekly
Visits 6,800 53,400
Visitor Avg. HH
Income $154,000 $148,000
Median Length of
Visit 60 min.58 min.
% of Visits: Home
< 3 Miles 39.8%42.2%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Monthly Visits Compared to Pre-COVID
Baseline
West End 4th Street Corridor
Visits to the 4th Street Corridor area
are generally ~20%below pre-COVID
levels,with the West End area
recovering at a greater level than the
overall corridor in a few months over
the past year.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 59
SAN RAFAEL
VISITOR TRADE
AREAS
Sources:
Placer.ai, data for 8/21-7/22, 80% True Trade Area represents the home locations of the top 80% of visits to the Study Areas
(Accessed August 2022)
Trade Area
Demographics
4th Street –
West End
4th Street
Corridor
Population 332,100 464,900
Millennial &
Younger 48%49%
Bach. Degree +58%58%
Avg. HH Income $166.2k $162.2k
The West End and 4th Street
Corridor share very similar
trade areas,drawing from San
Rafael and the surrounding
cities in Marin County.
The West End appears to be
more local-serving:approx.
27%of the West End’s visitors
live in San Rafael zip codes,
compared to 15%of visitors
to the overall 4th Street
Corridor.
West End
Trade Area
4th Street Corridor
Trade Area
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 60
WEST END 4TH STREET –FRIDAY BLOCK PARTIES
EVENT ANALYSIS
Kosmont pulled daily visit data for the West End
and overall 4th Street Corridor areas for the past
year, as well as data for Friday visits to the West
End and Thursday visits to the 4th Street Corridor
areas.
It is important to note that the small Placer.ai
sample size presents a challenge for individual day
analysis –for example, Placer.ai has a sample size
of 210 visits for all of the Friday visitors to the
West End area between May 26th and August 29th,
2022 (or ~15 visits per day), making it difficult to
draw strong, generalizable findings about event
performance.
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
4th Street West End Daily Visitors, 9/21 –8/22
Average Daily Visits Average Friday Visits
Summer Fridays
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 61
WEST END 4TH STREET –FRIDAY BLOCK PARTIES
PLACER.AI VISIT DATA
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%8:00 AM9:00 AM10:00 AM11:00 AM12:00 PM1:00 PM2:00 PM3:00 PM4:00 PM5:00 PM6:00 PM7:00 PM8:00 PM9:00 PM10:00 PM11:00 PMPercentage of Visits by Time of
Day
West End - Past Year Avg
West End - Past Year Fridays
West End - Summer Fridays
Time of Day analysis shows that visits to
the West End area tend to peak around
lunchtime, and peak again around 7pm.
Fridays tend to have a larger number of
visitors, with a greater percentage of visits
occurring between 7-10pm (27%).
The summer Fridays have a similar pattern,
with a slightly higher percentage of visitors
coming between 7-10pm (29%).
A modest percentage of Friday visitors to
the West End either come from or go to a
dining or leisure location before / after
visiting the West End area, with popular
locations being bars and restaurants in the
downtown San Rafael area.
West End
Area
Past Year
Overall
West End
Area
Past Year
Fridays
West End
Area
Since 5/26
Fridays
Est. Daily
Visits 1,000 1,270 1,190
Median
Length of
Stay
59 min 63 min 58 min
% of Visits:
Home
< 3 Miles
Away
39%40%38%
Visitor Avg.
HH Income $154k $147k $145k
Prior / Post
Location:
Dining &
Leisure
~14%~15%~18%
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 62
CANAL AREA
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 63
CANAL AREA OVERVIEW
The Canal Area serves as an economic engine for the City and Marin County,
home to retailers / auto dealerships, construction / industrial spaces, and a
large workforce population that provides the employment backbone for the
region.
Retail: Represents 32% of citywide, Auto dealerships and big box retailers are
major drivers, with low vacancy.
Office: Represents 15% of citywide, small local-serving office buildings as well as
larger office / flex / R&D complexes (such as Bayview Landing)
Multifamily: Represents 24% of citywide, clustered along San Rafael Creek, primarily
in structures built before 1975; ~2% vacancy
Industrial / Flex: Represents 77% of citywide, service / warehouse properties, as
well as Flex / R&D / Light Distribution / Light Manufacturing properties.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 64
CANAL AERIAL
Montecito Plaza
& Local Retail
High School
Residential Area ShorelineTarget / Home Depot
Source: CoStar, Google Earth
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 65
CANAL MARKET DATA
RETAIL
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF
Total
Vacant
Percent %
Total
Net
Absorption
SF Total
NNN Rent
Overall
Market
Rent
2022 YTD 1,632,293 28,718 1.8%9,986 $25.37 $27.49
2021 1,632,293 38,704 2.4%60,791 $24.84 $26.61
2020 1,632,293 99,495 6.1%4,515 $26.71 $25.61
2019 1,632,293 104,010 6.4%(97,313)$27.04 $25.28
2018 1,632,293 6,697 0.4%991 $30.00 $24.52
2017 1,632,293 7,688 0.5%(2,888)$30.00 $23.94
2016 1,632,293 4,800 0.3%4,125 $30.00 $23.60
2015 1,632,293 8,925 0.5%13,284 $21.00 $23.12
2014 1,632,293 22,209 1.4%13,122 $23.35 $22.66
2013 1,632,293 35,331 2.2%8,476 $23.24 $22.31
2012 1,632,293 43,807 2.7%(5,447)$20.38 $22.10
2011 1,632,293 38,360 2.4%16,778 $19.47 $22.22
2010 1,632,293 55,138 3.4%14,106 $22.55 $22.87
2009 1,632,293 69,244 4.2%(36,198)$21.74 $23.79
2008 1,632,293 33,046 2.0%9,401 $21.52 $25.57
2007 1,632,293 42,447 2.6%20,788 $15.51 $26.00
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%2022 YTD20212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008Vacancy Rate
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Rent
NNN Rent Overall Market RentSource: CoStar; Costar defines Triple Net (NNN) as “a lease where the tenant is responsible for all expenses associated with their proportional share of occupancy of the building, except long-lived structural components and management charges,” and these rent figures are based on what is available on the market at any given point in time (and so are weighted by actual available SF). The “market” rent figures are modeled values representing an aggregated time series for all properties within a market.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 66
CANAL MARKET DATA
OFFICE
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF
Total
Vacant
Percent %
Total
Net
Absorption
SF Total
Gross Rent
Overall
Market
Rent
2022 YTD 850,854 92,114 10.8%13,295 $43.79 $37.03
2021 850,854 105,409 12.4%(41,512)$42.84 $36.37
2020 850,854 63,897 7.5%(22,789)$45.08 $35.57
2019 850,854 41,108 4.8%44,229 $32.77 $36.57
2018 850,854 85,337 10.0%(24,545)$30.15 $35.46
2017 850,854 60,792 7.1%(23,576)$28.79 $34.87
2016 850,854 37,216 4.4%25,005 $19.36 $32.53
2015 850,854 62,221 7.3%(11,906)$25.03 $31.40
2014 850,854 50,315 5.9%(6,415)$25.55 $29.64
2013 850,854 43,900 5.2%9,412 $26.92 $28.53
2012 850,854 53,312 6.3%(1,490)$30.64 $28.01
2011 850,854 51,822 6.1%17,469 $24.94 $25.65
2010 850,854 69,291 8.1%41,368 $22.71 $25.62
2009 850,854 110,659 13.0%(9,603)$23.35 $26.79
2008 850,854 101,056 11.9%129,965 $32.52 $30.25
2007 708,445 88,612 12.5%(4,121)$32.20 $29.39
0%
5%
10%
15%
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Vacancy Rate
$0
$20
$40
$60
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Rent
Office Gross Rent Overall Market RentNote: Costar defines Full Service / Gross Rent as “a rental rate that includes normal building standard services which are provided and paid by the landlord,” and these rent figures are based on what is available on the market at any given point in time (and so are weighted by actual available SF). The “market” rent figures are modeled values representing an aggregated time series for all properties within a market.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 67
CANAL MARKET DATA
MULTIFAMILY
Year Inventory
Units Vacant Units Vacancy
Percent
Net
Absorption
(Units)
Asking Rent
(Unit/Mo.)
Asking Rent
(SF/Mo.)
2022 YTD 1,482 30 2.0%(8)$1,942.00 $2.44
2021 1,482 22 1.5%5 $1,921.00 $2.41
2020 1,482 27 1.8%(2)$1,909.00 $2.40
2019 1,482 24 1.6%6 $1,886.00 $2.37
2018 1,482 31 2.1%(6)$1,831.00 $2.29
2017 1,482 24 1.6%4 $1,767.00 $2.21
2016 1,482 29 1.9%2 $1,720.00 $2.15
2015 1,482 30 2.0%2 $1,611.00 $2.00
2014 1,482 32 2.1%2 $1,533.00 $1.90
2013 1,482 33 2.3%4 $1,489.00 $1.85
2012 1,482 38 2.6%2 $1,434.00 $1.78
2011 1,482 39 2.7%10 $1,395.00 $1.73
2010 1,482 49 3.3%2 $1,382.00 $1.71
2009 1,482 50 3.4%(17)$1,376.00 $1.71
2008 1,482 33 2.2%(6)$1,390.00 $1.72
2007 1,482 27 1.8%5 $1,379.00 $1.71
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%2022 YTD20212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008Vacancy Rate
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Asking Rent
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 68
CANAL MARKET DATA
INDUSTRIAL
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF
Total
Vacant
Percent %
Total
Net
Absorption
SF Total
NNN Rent
Overall
Market
Rent
2022 YTD 2,801,472 20,897 0.7%(1,232)$20.40 $21.46
2021 2,801,472 19,665 0.7%53,521 $14.40 $20.47
2020 2,801,472 73,186 2.6%(46,200)$16.04 $19.14
2019 2,801,472 26,986 1.0%6,936 -$18.34
2018 2,801,472 33,922 1.2%(44)-$17.53
2017 2,801,472 33,878 1.2%(11,967)-$16.52
2016 2,801,472 21,911 0.8%2,746 -$15.52
2015 2,801,472 24,657 0.9%24,985 -$14.60
2014 2,801,472 49,642 1.8%23,900 $15.00 $13.75
2013 2,801,472 73,542 2.6%31,523 $12.74 $12.99
2012 2,801,472 105,065 3.8%(786)$14.00 $12.55
2011 2,801,472 104,279 3.7%(6,740)$14.40 $12.40
2010 2,801,472 97,539 3.5%36,056 $14.65 $12.38
2009 2,793,147 125,270 4.5%(91,320)$12.44 $12.71
2008 2,793,147 33,950 1.2%45,778 -$13.37
2007 2,793,147 79,728 2.9%27,557 $13.80 $13.40
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%2022 YTD20212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008Vacancy Rate
$0
$10
$20
$30
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Rent
NNN Rent Overall Market RentSource: CoStar; Costar defines Triple Net (NNN) as “a lease where the tenant is responsible for all expenses associated with their proportional share of occupancy of the building, except long-lived structural components and management charges,” and these rent figures are based on what is available on the market at any given point in time (and so are weighted by actual available SF). The “market” rent figures are modeled values representing an aggregated time series for all properties within a market.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 69
CANAL MARKET DATA
FLEX
Year Inventory SF Vacant SF
Total
Vacant
Percent %
Total
Net
Absorption
SF Total
NNN Rent
Overall
Market
Rent
2022 YTD 515,775 25,636 5.0%(13,951)-$24.76
2021 515,775 11,685 2.3%30,899 $21.48 $23.98
2020 515,775 42,584 8.3%(15,344)-$22.71
2019 515,775 27,240 5.3%(19,834)$17.40 $22.37
2018 515,775 7,406 1.4%41,774 -$21.68
2017 515,775 49,180 9.5%(18,636)$16.80 $20.75
2016 515,775 30,544 5.9%(11,603)$16.80 $19.92
2015 515,775 18,941 3.7%(6,266)-$18.57
2014 515,775 12,675 2.5%(1,687)-$17.58
2013 515,775 10,988 2.1%3,508 -$16.72
2012 515,775 14,496 2.8%20,562 -$16.02
2011 515,775 35,058 6.8%11,466 -$15.63
2010 515,775 46,524 9.0%10,250 -$15.60
2009 515,775 56,774 11.0%(44,861)$14.40 $16.03
2008 515,775 11,913 2.3%15,104 -$16.71
2007 515,775 27,017 5.2%33,672 -$17.02
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Vacancy Rate
$0
$10
$20
$30
2022
YTD
2020201820162014201220102008
Rent
NNN Rent Overall Market RentSource: CoStar; Costar defines Triple Net (NNN) as “a lease where the tenant is responsible for all expenses associated with their proportional share of occupancy of the building, except long-lived structural components and management charges,” and these rent figures are based on what is available on the market at any given point in time (and so are weighted by actual available SF). The “market” rent figures are modeled values representing an aggregated time series for all properties within a market.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 70
CANAL SALE COMPS
Address Sale Date Size SF Sales Price $/PSF Lot AC Use / Notes
Retail / Specialty
540 W Francisco Blvd 1/3/2022 21,688 $33,781,711 $1,557,62 3.68 Auto Dealership; Portfolio sale
24 Bellam Blvd 10/19/2022 22,230 $6,519,000 $293.25 0.87 Self Storage, built 1960
990-1010 Andersen Dr 5/27/2022 72,249 $24,000,000 $332.18 3.29 Self Storage
Industrial
1945 E Francisco Blvd 8/25/2022 965 $510,000 $528.50 Rafael Business Center, service, 1980
1945 E Francisco Blvd 4/8/2022 990 $1,100,000 $1,111.11 Rafael Business Center
1101-1105 E Francisco
Blvd 2/7/2022 16,254 $5,400,000 $332.23 Warehouse, built 1971
3125 Kerner Blvd 2/1/2022 6,538 $2,150,000 $328.85 Warehouse, built 1978
Multifamily
3737 Kerner Blvd 8/11/2022 6,596 SF / 5 Units $2,225,000 $337.33 Apartments, built 1979
400 Canal St 7/22/2022 100,391 SF / 99 Units $32,250,000 $321.24 Apartments, built 1963
90 Louise St 7/20/2022 4,700 SF / 7 Units $1,300,000 $276.60 Apartments, built 1960
355 Canal St 1/28/2022 32,664 SF / 42 Units $14,650,000 $448.51 Westwind Apartments, built 1962
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 71
CANAL LEASE COMPS
Address Sign Date Space SF Rent Rent Type
Retail
869 W Francisco Blvd Oct 2022 1st Floor, Graham Center 20,838 $22.80 NNN Asking
815-825 W Francisco Blvd Aug 2022 1st Floor, Graham Center 3,200 $23.40 MG Starting
1121 E Francisco Blvd Dec 2021 1st Floor, freestanding 4,230 $19.80 MG Asking
Office
41 Simms St May 2022 1st Floor 1,210 $19.80 MG Asking
101 Glacier Point Rd July 2022 2nd Floor, Bay View Bus. Park 16,873 $23.40 NNN Asking
2173 E Francisco Blvd Feb 2022 1st Floor, Bay Park Office. Compl.430 $31.80 MG Asking
Industrial
987-999 Francisco Blvd Oct 2022 Showroom built 1978 4,465 $22.20 IG Asking
47 Louise St Oct 2022 Warehouse, built 1968 renov 2005 6,050 $20.40 NNN Asking
24 Woodland Ave May 2022 Service, tenant is Velazquez Title, Inc.4,900 $18.00 IG Asking
1925 E Francisco Blvd Mar 2022 Light manufacturing, built 1981 1,342 $24.00 MG Asking
3095 Kerner Blvd Jan 2022 Warehouse, built 1976 1,200 $21.60 IG Asking
Source: CoStar
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 72
E. REVIEW OF KEY PLANS / STUDIES
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 73
CITY PLANNING STUDIES
Kosmont has reviewed several key planning studies from the City:
Downtown Parking Study –July 2017
The study found that Downtown has more than enough parking (7,800 spaces)to meet peak demand (5,000 spaces).
The only threat to parking sufficiency occurs if most surface parking lot are developed with no new parking spaces.
Downtown Precise Plan –August 2021
The Precise Plan is result of extensive two-year planning effort for a vision and roadmap to increase housing
production,improve walkability and transportation utilization and advance resiliency to climate change.It has a strong
emphasis on creating neighborhoods in Downtown by protecting its historic character and local businesses,while
inviting new mixed-use development that helps economic vitality
Climate Action Plans (CAP)
The City has a rich history of environmental protection with first CAP adopted in 2009.The 2020 plan adopted
more stringent GHG reduction than the State target with six areas of focus including 100%renewable energy,energy
conservation,low carbon transit,increased building energy efficiency,food waste reuse,green building codes.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 74
DOWNTOWN PRECISE PLAN
GOALS, GUIDING PRINCIPLES, AND VISION
The goal of the precise plan is to transform downtown into a “vibrant, mixed-use destination with a strong sense of place and history, and one that provides varied and rich experiences for visitors and residents alike.” The Precise Plan takes a detailed look a t the downtown area, assessing existing conditions and establishing goals, principles, and a vision for the Downtown area.
Challenges & Opportunities Design Principles & Guiding Policies Design Vision
Challenges
1.Limited infill opportunities and inhibited housing diversity
as a result of development constraints,
2.Inadequate active transportation facilities and barriers to
connectivity,
3.Unclear historic status of many older downtown
properties,
4.Potential impact of climate change and sea-level rise in
parts of downtown,
5.Evolving retail trends potentially impacting downtown,
6.Rising homeless and displacement.
Opportunities
1.Downtown’s identity as a central location / established
regional center with diverse jobs & strong economic base,
2.Unique cultural legacy of the authentic walkable, historic
downtown along with a mild climate and access to nature
3.Downtown is a major transportation hub with great
potential for mixed-use development.
1.Strengthen Downtown's identity and sense of arrival by
focusing development at key nodes and gateways;
2.Coordinate placemaking improvements to make
Downtown interesting, safe, and inviting for everyone;
3.Provide a safe, well-connected transportation network for
all modes, supported by a progressive parking strategy;
4.Establish a network of attractive and welcoming streets
and civic spaces
5.Enable mixed-use development in Downtown to increase
housing, strengthen local businesses, and diversify the
economy
6.Reinforce downtown’s eclectic character with historic
preservation and new context-sensitive development.”
7.Develop growth and adaptation strategies to increase
Downtown’s resilience to climate change
8.Promote housing access to all income levels and establish
strategies to prevent homelessness, gentrification, and
displacement
1.Compact, mixed-use development on infill sites including a
variety of building types;
2.Focused development at the Downtown gateways from
the east, west and the SMART station to create a sense of
arrival;
3.New development is compatible in scale and form with
the existing built fabric;
4.Development on larger sites (typically achieved through
lot consolidation) is composed of well-scaled buildings,
not large, monolithic structures, to create appropriate
height and form transitions to the existing built fabric; and
5.A cohesive network of bicycle and pedestrian-priority
streets link key destinations and open spaces, enhancing
the public realm
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DOWNTOWN PRECISE PLAN
APPROACH AND KEY AREAS
The Precise Plan aims to set clear development standards that can create a more cohesive
downtown environment and streamline the
review and development process for prospective
developers.
The Plan takes a Form Based Approach which
focuses on the form of the building and its
relationship to the adjacent street / civic space,
rather than the specific use of the space. –
providing flexibility to allow a wide variety of activities and mixed uses that are inherent to a downtown area.
The plan also takes a multimodal approach to transportation, supporting all modes (walking, biking, driving, transit, micro-mobility) and a layered network approach that aims for a “complete streets” road experience and “park once” strategy to encourage parking at off-street facilities and walking through downtown.
Downtown Subareas Residential Commercial
Downtown
Gateway
Regional transportation hub, plans for mixed-use
development, amenities, civic space. Entrance to
downtown, provide housing and employment in
transit-rich area, draw visitors and residents into
downtown
830 Units
1,410 pop.
(830,000 SF)
640 Jobs
(210,000 SF)
Downtown
Core
Heart of retail, dining, culture, and entertainment.
Plans for active / growing regional retail and
cultural center, mixed use developments, public
realm / streetscape improvements to support
businesses / enliven area / improve safety /
multimodal transportation
620 units
1,050 pop.
(620,000 SF)
1,040 Jobs
(373,000 SF)
West End
Village
Residential and historic character, plans to
maintain this feeling and provide expanded variety
of housing types
360 Units
610 pop.
(360,000 SF)
200 Jobs
(70,000 SF)
Montecito
Commercial
High concentration of pedestrians / cyclists, plans
to be a vibrant residential neighborhood with
connection to downtown, canal, and waterfront,
incremental infill with mixed-use buildings
390 Units
670 pop.
(390,000 SF)
140 Jobs
(45,000 SF)
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DOWNTOWN PRECISE PLAN
IMPLEMENTATION
Support existing businesses
and attract new businesses
to downtown
Promote a business-friendly environment, monitor / update
development standards, offer businesses technical assistance and
information, enhance social media presence.
Maintain / enhance
downtown’s fiscal vitality
Monitor leasing activity and support tenant recruitment and
permitting, identify joint business support and promotion (small
business training and area-wide joint advertising), support local
maker and craft businesses, support existing and new co-working
spaces, retain existing retailers, etc.
Support new infill and
transit-oriented
development
Encourage parcel assembly through height bonuses, consider setting
a minimum parcel or development size, offer a wide range of
affordable and market rate housing, preserve downtown’s historic
resources, strengthen ties to SMART station and east and west sides
of downtown across US-101, explore partnerships with local health
care providers and major employers
Strengthen downtown as a
community and regional
destination
Build upon the California Arts and Cultural District, establish
downtown as the lifestyle and entertainment center of San Rafael,
provide high quality public services and amenities; enhance
downtown’s reputation in travel, restaurant, and event guides online
and in printed media; and encourage public art as a placemaking
strategy through incentivizing private developers to sponsor the art.
Goal: Increase employment opportunities,
solidify reputation as regional economic
center, and maintain downtown culture and
character.
The Precise plan strives for implementation
flexibility to allow for new innovative
solutions, strategies, and development
opportunities. The plan facilitates incremental
infill to blend growth with existing fabric.
“Placemaking” is emphasized to prioritize key
improvements to stimulate private
investment. “Tactical urbanism” is encouraged
to provide short-term, low-cost
improvements to test design concepts and
build community support. Finally, the plan
aims to promote local businesses and
institutions via placemaking and preventing
displacement to protect uniqueness and
authentic character.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 77
MARIN COUNTY ECONOMIC VITALITY STRATEGIC PLAN
In August 2022,Marin County,with participation by San Rafael officials,adopted an Economic Vitality
Strategic Plan with numerous strategies that San Rafael and other communities could try to implement.
Key strategies are listed below:
Increase tourism
Encourage entrepreneurship
Support enterprise formation
Support access to capital
Cities should work together on common objectives
Provide warehouse/workspace for new business growth
Provide low-cost high-speed internet to facilitate work from home and entrepreneurs
Provide reliable transit
Attract State and Federal grant funds for Economic Development and climate action plan
Identify and attract high growth/value industries
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
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MARIN COUNTY
ECONOMIC VITALITY STRATEGIC PLAN
The EVSP provides an assessment of Marin County’s industries based on size, growth, and specialization:
Expanding (Strongest):Life Sciences leads, with Retail and Real Estate just barely expanding
Transforming (Specialization):Digital Media, Tourism / Hospitality, Healthcare / Aging Services
Emerging (Demand Driven): Business & Technical Services
Declining (Weak):Financial Services / Investment, Information Technology
Compared to other Bay Area counties, Marin’s Life Sciences / Biotech industry is small / specialized / growing quickly, and the Tourism / Hospitality industry is also expanding –suggesting that these areas offer key opportunities for future growth.
Source: Marin County Economic Vitality Strategic Plan, Page 29
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 79
MARIN ECONOMIC FORUM
BUSINESS RETENTION & EXPANSION PROJECT
The Marin Economic Forum collected input from businesses regarding challenges and
opportunities for operating a business in Marin County. The purpose of the project is to
develop solutions and programs that can assist with business retention and expansion. The
Phase 1 Report summarizes the information gathered during the data collection and
business outreach efforts.
The report notes that the Marin economy is strong and has experienced significant
economic growth over the past 15 years, but faces challenges in five key areas: workforce,
transportation / mobility, regulatory environment, built environment / infrastructure, and
business ecosystem.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 80
F. STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH &
COMMUNITY / BUSINESS SURVEY SUMMARY
San Rafael Economic Development Strategic Plan
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 81
BUSINESS SURVEY OVERVIEW
The online business survey conducted
in December 2022 provided feedback
from businesses to help plan for San
Rafael’s future.228 surveys were
submitted;~29%were from members
of the San Rafael Chamber of
Commerce,and ~15%of responses
were from members of the San Rafael
Downtown Business Improvement
District.
Results show that the top challenges
facing businesses in San Rafael includes
High Rent / City Fees, Retaining /
Hiring Employees, Safety / Cleanliness.
Wgt.
Avg.
5.80
5.66
5.51
5.23
4.31
4.29
3.52
3.02
25%
37%
22%
13%
8%
13%
5%
2%
18%
15%
19%
17%
12%
13%
6%
8%
18%
8%
13%
23%
12%
10%
10%
5%
14%
7%
17%
14%
12%
10%
9%
8%
11%
11%
10%
10%
16%
10%
13%
10%
6%
6%
7%
9%
17%
15%
19%
12%
5%
5%
4%
8%
14%
12%
14%
28%
3%
11%
7%
5%
9%
17%
23%
27%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Rent / city fees
Retaining / hiring employees
Safety / cleanliness
Cost of goods / inventory
Parking
Foot traffic / customer count
Internet sales competition
Competition with shopping districts…
What challenges do you face doing business in San Rafael?
8 (Greatest Challenge)7 6 5 4 3 2 1 (Least Challenge)
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
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BUSINESS SURVEY OVERVIEW
The top City priorities identified in the
business survey include Homelessness,
Cleanliness / Appearance / Illegal Dumping,
Improving Public Safety, Housing, and
Sustainability / Climate Change.
Businesses were also asked to what extent
they would support two ideas to fund BID
operations / provide resources to the
business community:
Increase transient occupancy taxes on
overnight hotel stays (current rate is
12%) –supported by 52% of survey
respondents
Increase parking fees (street meters and
parking structure) –supported by 25%
of survey respondents
Wgt.
Avg.
3.49
3.36
3.15
3.10
2.75
2.67
2.64
2.60
2.59
2.48
2.33
65%
52%
43%
45%
32%
21%
22%
20%
23%
22%
14%
23%
33%
31%
29%
33%
36%
36%
36%
29%
30%
26%
9%
12%
22%
16%
15%
34%
25%
27%
32%
24%
39%
4%
2%
3%
10%
21%
10%
16%
17%
16%
25%
21%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Homelessness
Cleanliness / appearance / illegal dumping
Improve public safety
Housing
Sustainability (climate change)
Streetscape, design, lighting
Economic recovery grants, mini loans
More public art, plazas, parks and walkways
Parking
Racial equity / support BIPOC-owned…
Mobility / signage, wayfinding bike-ability
What level of priority do you think the City should focus its
financial resources in each of the following categories?
4(Highest Priority)3 (High Priority)2(Low Priority)1 (Lowest Priority)
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 83
COMMUNITY SURVEY OVERVIEW
An online community survey was conducted in
December 2022 providing feedback from residents
to help plan for San Rafael’s future.112 surveys
were submitted,with around ~94%of responses
coming from San Rafael residents.60%live in Council
District 2,53%of respondents have lived in San
Rafael for over 20 years,and 73%of respondents
were at least 55 years old.
Results show that respondents highly value a wide
variety of new developments in the Downtown and
North San Rafael areas,including Arts /Cultural /
Educational options,Shopping /Other Retail,Fine
Dining,Family Restaurants,Gathering Places,and
Multifamily Housing.
Results also show support for City investment in
civic improvements /amenities,with the top-ranking
choices including Cleanliness /Appearance,Traffic
Flow,Safety,Mobility /Walkability /Bike-ability /
Transit,Public Art /Plazas /Walkways,and
Streetscape /Design.
Wgt.
Avg.
3.59
3.55
3.40
3.23
3.19
3.11
2.58
2.55
2.55
2.50
67%
66%
59%
55%
47%
38%
24%
22%
22%
50%
26%
24%
25%
19%
31%
39%
27%
30%
31%
7%
8%
15%
19%
17%
18%
33%
29%
27%
6%
6%
5%
17%
19%
20%
50%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Cleanliness / appearance
Traffic flow
Safety
Mobility / walkability / bike-ability / transit
Public art, plazas, and walkways
Streetscape / design / built environment
Parking infrastructure
Technological infrastructure (e.g. Broadband)
Signage / wayfinding / lighting
Other
Which of the following civic improvements / amenities
should the City invest in for San Rafael
4 (Very Often)3 (Often)2 (Not Important)1 (Not Important at All)
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
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OVERVIEW
STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH
City Staff / Council Business Owners / Groups Community Groups
Jim Schutz, City Manager
Bernadette Sullivan, Sr. Mgmt Analyst
Victoria Lim, Economic Development
Christine Alilovich, Assist. City Manager
April Miller, Public Works Director
Cory Bytof, Sustainability Manager
Vedika Ahuja, Product Manager
Ali Giudice, Community Development Director
Kati Miller, Econ Dev Advisory Board
Jon Haveman, Planning Commissioner
Kate Colin –Mayor
Maika Llorens Gulati –Councilmember Dist 1
Eli Hill –Councilmember Dist 2
Rachel Kertz –Councilmember Dist 4
Shingai Samudzi –Planning Commission Chairman
Chamber of Commerce
Downtown San Rafael Business Improvement
District
HL Commercial Real Estate
Merlone Geier Partners
Monahan Pacific Developers
Newmark Group
Seagull Prime Real Estate
Volvo Dealership (Diana Kennedy)
Age Friendly Initiative
Arts Work Downtown
Canal Alliance
Dominican University
Federation of San Rafael Neighborhoods
Lorenzo Jones
Point San Pedro Road Coalition
Resilient Shore
San Rafael Tree People
Youth in Arts
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 85
STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH
STRENGTHS
East San Rafael East San Rafael / the Canal area is a major economic engine for the City and Marin County –auto sales, contractors / construction; need to
ensure companies have resources they need (parking / space issues, etc)
Precise Plan Downtown Precise Plan provides better certainty for development approvals Downtown, focuses on sense of place
Arts Community Cultural Arts District designation, arts orgs (Youth in Arts, Art Works Downtown), Rafael theater; but need to attract State funding and drive
events activity
“Green” Community Outdoor activities, parks, and trees are an important amenity; parklets have created good public spaces downtown
Historic Character Historic neighborhoods can attract new residents, entrepreneurs
Older Adults Large population of older adults can be a resource (employment, mentorship, etc) but also need stronger connections to services
Essential Workers Southeast San Rafael / Canal area houses many essential workers, provides employment backbone for the County; could use improvements
for workforce development programs for residents
Entrepreneurial Spirit Wide variety of entrepreneurs in the City, from small businesses to tech entrepreneurs
Events Existing events are successful, bring liveliness / activity / character; Dining Under the Lights popular with many local businesses, finding balance
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 86
STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH
CHALLENGES
Need a Plan City needs a feasible visionary roadmap that prioritizes strategies to maximize impact and coordinates with Marin Economic Vi tality Plan
Organization Capacity Chamber and BID are good organizations with good relationships with the City, but have limited funding which impacts capacity
City Processes &
Development Costs
City has made some improvements, but entitlement timeline can take time / expense (appeals, design review board, historic review, project
shrinkage, utility upgrades, fees, etc.), need more predictability
Beautification Many commercial areas could use beautification / streetscape / façade improvements (Downtown, Las Gallinas, Canal), improved cleanliness,
showcase art (displays, murals, installations, etc.
Flood Risk Valley floor represents a large percentage of the city’s economic activity, but flooding could create a serious problem in the future
Vacancy Retail vacancy is a problem downtown, lowers activity level; some potential risk from office vacancies and changes occurring in the office
market
Parking / Circulation Parking is a perceived problem downtown; free parking could help drive visits to area; other shopping districts nearby may have free parking;
limited employee parking; parking structures offer capacity / flexibility; downtown may benefit from prioritizing cycling / walking
Homelessness Perception of homelessness is sometimes a problem for downtown businesses / visitors
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 87
STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH
OPPORTUNITIES
Waterfront Waterfront area is an underutilized asset, could be leveraged for new activities –needs a more curated feel
Events More events centered around food / music can help attract visitors, serve diverse demographics, create experiences
Tourism Need to leverage partnerships to build tourism base (Visit Marin / Visitors Bureau); need better tourist-oriented services downtown (visitor
offices to orient biking tourists, BID/Chamber office to orient travelers, better gateway area, bikeshare / bike racks
Dominican University Underutilized asset, students / faculty can bring activity downtown and provide services to community, neighborhood issues co nstrain growth
Cannabis There could be an opportunity to expand cannabis manufacturing, testing, and research
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
KOSMONT COMPANIES | 88
DISCLAIMER
The analyses,projections,assumptions,rates of return,and any examples presented herein are
for illustrative purposes and are not a guarantee of actual and/or future results.Project pro
forma and tax analyses are projections only.Actual results may differ from those expressed in
this analysis,as results are difficult to predict as a function of market conditions,natural
disasters,pandemics,significant economic impacts,legislation and administrative actions.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
El Segundo, CA
TEL: 424-297-1070 | URL: www.kosmont.com
CITY OF SAN RAFAEL
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
DATA APPENDIX
May 15, 2023
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
ACTION ITEM RESOURCES
1: Support Business / Development
# Action Item JL Cost Workload Timeframe
1 .1 BEAR Program $ • • Year 1 --
1 _2 Technical Assistance $ • Year 2 Programs ----
1 3 Business / $ • Ongoing -· Development Data
1.4 Bi-lingual Staff $$$$ • • • • Ongoing ----
1 _5 Entrepreneurial $$ • • Year 1 --Events
Star (*) -items that generate revenue / funding capacity
$
$$
$$$
$$$$
Estimated Cost thru Year 5
<$50,000
$50,000 to $150,000
$150,000 to $300,000
>$300,000
Cost does not include allocation of current Econ Dev
staff salaries
2: Downtown Reimagination
# Action Item II Cost Workload Timeframe
2.1 Business Programs $$$ • • Year 3 -4 ---Explore conversion
2.2* of the BBID to a $ • • Year 1 --PBID
Evaluate publicly-
$ 2 .3 owned sites for • Year 2-3 -reuse
2 .4 ~lacemaking physical $$$$ • • Year 3-5 improvements --
2 _5 Other physical $$$ • • Year 3-5 enhancements --
2 _6 Ma~eting / social $ • Ongoing media -
3: Analyze Implementation of EIFD
# Action Item II Cost Workload Timeframe
-
3 _ 1 Feasibility analysis / $ • • Q1-Q3 plan --
3 2* Explore County II $ • Year 1-2 · Partnership -
3.3* Pursue Grants $ • Ongoing -
E t' t d W kl d D . T' f
~
~~
• • • ---~~~~
10-20% of employee workload
20-40% of employee workload
40-60% of employee workload
60-100% of employee workload
KOSMONT COMPANIES 30
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN
ACTION ITEM RESOURCES
4: Strengthen Local Partnerships 5: Attract High-tech Industrial Uses
# Action Item Cost WorkloadTimeframe # Action Item Cost Workload Timeframe
41 * Explore tourism
· funding models
Explore / expand
4 .2 events and
programming
4 _3 Marketing.
partnerships
4.4 Tourism marketing
4.5 Arts programming
4 _6 Coll~borate ':ith.
service organizations
$
$$$
$
$
$
$
• -
• • --
• • --
:. :.
:. :.
:. :.
Year 1-2
Year 1-3
Year 1
Year 1
Year 1
Year 2
Star (*) -items that generate revenue / funding capacity
Estimated Cost thru Year 5
$ L_ <$50,000
$$ $50,000 to $150,000
$$$ [ $150,000 to $300,000
$$$$ >$300,000
Cost does not include allocation of current Econ Dev
staff salaries
Revise zoning/
5 .1 processes for
industrial uses
$$ • • • Year 3-5 ---
5 2 Pursue new
· industrial sectors $ • Year 1-2 -
Evaluate tech
5.3 industrial overlay
zoning
$$ • • Year 2 --
Conduct outreach
5 .4 bus inesses, industry $ • • Year 1-2 --grps -
7: Workforce Development Programs
# Action Item
Coordinate with
7.1 orgs. for workforce
development
Conduct outreach
to local businesses /
orgs.
7.2
Cost Workload Timeframe
$
$
:. :.
:. :.
Year 3-5
Tear 3-5
6: Outreach for Private / Business
Develo ment O ortunities
# Action Item IL Cost Workload Timeframe
6 _ 1 l~entify / analyze $ • Year 1-2 sites for reuse -
Outreach/
6.2 collaborate with I $ :.11 Year 1-2
property owners
6 3 Pursue businesses / $ • • Year 2 · developers --
6 .4* Cannabis _b~siness $$ • • Year 2-3 --opportunities
6 5 Update Mobile $$ • • Year 2-3 · Vender Ordinance --
E t' t d W kl d D . T' f
:.
:. :.
• • • ---:. :. :. :.
10-20% of employee workload
20-40% of employee workload
40-60% of employee workload
60-100% of employee workload
KOSMONT COMPANIES 31